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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

Computation and analysis of the instantaneous-discharge record for the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona — May 8, 1921, through September 30, 2000

A gaging station has been operated by the U.S. Geological Survey at Lees Ferry, Arizona, since May 8, 1921. In March 1963, Glen Canyon Dam was closed 15.5 miles upstream, cutting off the upstream sediment supply and regulating the discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry for the first time in history. To evaluate the pre-dam variability in the hydrology of the Colorado River, and to determine the effect of the operation of Glen Canyon Dam on the downstream hydrology of the river, a continuous record of the instantaneous discharge of the river at Lees Ferry was constructed and analyzed for the entire period of record between May 8, 1921, and September 30, 2000. This effort involved retrieval from the Federal Records Centers and then synthesis of all the raw historical data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at Lees Ferry. As part of this process, the peak discharges of the two largest historical floods at Lees Ferry, the 1884 and 1921 floods, were reanalyzed and recomputed. This reanalysis indicates that the peak discharge of the 1884 flood was 210,000±30,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), and the peak discharge of the 1921 flood was 170,000±20,000 ft 3 /s. These values are indistinguishable from the peak discharges of these floods originally estimated or published by the U.S. Geological Survey, but are substantially less than the currently accepted peak discharges of these floods. The entire continuous record of instantaneous discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry can now be requested from the U.S. Geological Survey Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, and is also available electronically at http://www.gcmrc.gov. This record is perhaps the longest (almost 80 years) high-resolution (mostly 15- to 30-minute precision) times series of river discharge available. Analyses of these data, therefore, provide an unparalleled characterization of both the natural variability in the discharge of a river and the effects of dam operations on a river. Following the construction and quality-control checks of the continuous record of instantaneous discharge, analyses of flow duration, sub-daily flow variability, and flood frequency were conducted on the pre- and post-dam parts of the record. These analyses indicate that although the discharge of the Colorado River varied substantially prior to the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, operation of the dam has caused changes in discharge that are more extreme than the pre-dam natural variability. Operation of the dam has eliminated flood flows and base flows, and thereby has effectively "flattened" the annual hydrograph. Prior to closure of the dam, the discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry was lower than 7,980 ft 3 /s half of the time. Discharges lower than about 9,000 ft 3 /s were important for the seasonal accumulation and storage of sand in the pre-dam river downstream from Lees Ferry. The current operating plan for Glen Canyon Dam no longer allows sustained discharges lower than 8,000 ft 3 /s to be released. Thus, closure of the dam has not only cut off the upstream supply of sediment, but operation of the dam has also largely eliminated discharges during which sand could be demonstrated to accumulate in the river. In addition to radically changing the hydrology of the river, operation of the dam for hydroelectric-power generation has introduced large daily fluctuations in discharge. During the pre-dam era, the median daily range in discharge was only 542 ft 3 /s, although daily ranges in discharge exceeding 20,000 ft 3 /s were observed during the summer thunderstorm season. Relative to the pre-dam period of record, dam operations have increased the daily range in discharge during all but 0.1 percent of all days. The post-dam median daily range in discharge, 8,580 ft 3 /s, exceeds the pre-dam median discharge of 7,980 ft 3 /s. Operation of the dam has also radically changed the frequency of floods on the Colorado River at Lees Ferry. The frequency of floods with peak discharges larger than about 29,000 ft 3 /s has greatly decreased, while the frequency of smaller floods, with peak discharges between 18,500 and 29,000 ft 3 /s, has increased substantially. Operation of the dam has greatly extended the duration of smaller floods; for example, each of the four longest periods of sustained flows in excess of 18,500 ft 3 /s occurred after closure of the dam.

Arizona↗

Advancing cave detection using terrain analysis and thermal imagery

Since the initial experiments nearly 50 years ago, techniques for detecting caves using airborne and spacecraft acquired thermal imagery have improved markedly. These advances are largely due to a combination of higher instrument sensitivity, modern computing systems, and processor-intensive analytical techniques. Through applying these advancements, our goals were to: (1) Determine the efficacy of methods designed for terrain analysis and applied to thermal imagery; (2) evaluate the usefulness of predawn and midday imagery for detecting caves; and (3) ascertain which imagery type (predawn, midday, or the difference between those two times) was most informative. Using forward stepwise logistic (FSL) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analyses for model selection, and a thermal imagery dataset acquired from the Mojave Desert, California, we examined the efficacy of three well-known terrain descriptors (i.e., slope, topographic position index (TPI), and curvature) on thermal imagery for cave detection. We also included the actual, untransformed thermal DN values (hereafter “unenhanced thermal”) as a fourth dataset. Thereafter, we compared the thermal signatures of known cave entrances to all non-cave surface locations. We determined these terrain-based analytical methods, which described the “shape” of the thermal landscape, hold significant promise for cave detection. All imagery types produced similar results. Down-selected covariates per imagery type, based upon the FSL models, were: Predawn— slope, TPI, curvature at 0 m from cave entrance, as well as slope at 1 m from cave entrance; midday— slope, TPI, and unenhanced thermal at 0 m from cave entrance; and difference— TPI and slope at 0 m from cave entrance, as well as unenhanced thermal and TPI at 3.5 m from cave entrance. We provide recommendations for future research directions in terrestrial and planetary cave detection using thermal imagery.

Remote Sensing↗

Slip distribution and rupture history of the August 11, 2012, double earthquakes in Ahar – Varzaghan, Iran, using joint inversion of teleseismic broadband and local strong motion data

We use combined teleseismic and strong motion data sets to investigate finite-fault slip models for a double of earthquakes that occurred on August 11, 2012, in northwestern Iran near the cities of Ahar and Varzaghan. The data include teleseismic P-waveforms retrieved from broadband seismic stations located between 30°–94° from the earthquakes and local strong motion data recorded by the Iran Strong Motion Network, installed and operated by the Building and Housing Research Centre. We first invert teleseismic P-waveforms and local strong motion data separately. For the first event (12:23 UTC), the teleseismic broadband inversion yields a somewhat deeper and simpler distribution of slip than the local strong motion inversion. The strong motion inversion results in a more complex distribution because of higher frequency content but can also be influenced by complexities in the propagation path. For the second event (12:34 UTC), the slip distribution from strong motion data is more similar to the teleseismic result and shows a simple slip area with a small relative movement to the west. To resolve the differences between the results of these two data sets and obtain a better constrained slip model, we perform a joint inversion of teleseismic broadband and local strong motion data. The joint inversion for the first event shows two asperities with a maximum slip of 3.9 m up- dip from the hypocenter and extending to the west between depths of 1 and 5 km. A second narrower high-slip area is seen just above the hypocenter from 6 to 10 km depth. The total moment for this earthquake is calculated to be M o = 3.8 × 10 25 dyn-cm (3.8 × 10 18 N.m) (M w 6.4). For the second event, the results of the joint inversion show a simple slip distribution that is mainly confined in a single patch around the hypocenter with a depth range from about 10 to 13 km and maximum slip of 1.9 m. We compute a total seismic moment of M o = 1.6 × 10 25 dyn-cm (1.6 × 10 18 N.m) (M w 6.1) for the second event. The largest stress drops for the first event occur above the hypocenter with an average stress drop over the rupture area of 120 bar (12 Mpa). For the second event, the maximum stress drop occurs at the reported focal depth with an average stress drop over the rupture area of 80 bar (8 Mpa).

East Anatolian Fault↗

Heat flux from a vapor-dominated hydrothermal field beneath Yellowstone Lake

We report results from 149 heat flux measurements made over n ∼2-year interval at sites in and around a vapor-dominated geothermal field located at water depths of ∼100–120 m in Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming. Measurements of both in situ temperature and thermal conductivity as a function of depth were made with a 1 m probe via a remotely operated vehicle, and are combined to compute the vertical conductive heat flux. Inside the ∼55.5 × 10 3 m 2 bathymetric depression demarcating the vapor-dominated field, the median conductive flux is 13 W m −2 , with a conductive output of 0.72 MW. Outside the thermal field, the median conductive flux is 3.5 W m −2 . We observed 49 active vents inside the thermal field, with an estimated mass discharge rate of 56 kg s −1 , a median exit-fluid temperature of 132°C, and a total heat output of 29 MW. We find evidence for relatively weak secondary convection with a total output of 0.09 MW in thermal area lake floor sediments. Our data indicate that vapor beneath the thermal field is trapped by a low-permeability cap at a temperature of ∼189°C and a depth of ∼15 m below the lake floor. The thermal output of the Deep Hole is among the highest of any vapor-dominated field in Yellowstone, due in part to the high boiling temperatures associated with the elevated lake floor pressures.

Wyoming↗

Field and office instructions in stream gauging for the Hydrological Survey of Zambia

The importance of water to the basic needs of man is self- evident and needs no particular emphasis. The importance of water to a developing economy cannot be overemphasized. A few decades ago, hydrology was a division of hydraulic engineering and was a tool for project survey, plan, and design. Today hydrology still remains an important part of planning and management of water use projects, but it is imperative that surface and ground-water basic data networks be designed and operated from the standpoint of both present and future water needs. Water problems are ever increasing and ever changing and preparation for the future water demands of Zambia requires knowledge of the hydrology of the country instead of the examination of piecemeal samples for each water use project. The hydrologic survey of Zambia needs to be under the guidance of competent and imaginative hydrologists solidly trained in all elements of basic data collection and analysis and not in the hands of water project planners. Hydrology is a science which requires the highest order of teamwork and the hydrologist will need the help and advice of many employees within the organization to operate the network, provide adequate research, and examine the water needs of the country. It must be thoroughly understood that communication is essential between the hydrological survey and water project planners from both the government and private sectors. It is very important to define the aims and duties of the Hydrological Branch of the Water Affairs Department in a clear cut "Statement of Policy". Personal copies of the statement should be made available to all professional employees and technicians. The reasons for the existence of the Branch may be self-apparent to heads of the organization, but to all other employees the reasons may be vague and unknown. Every member of the technical and administrative staff would benefit by an understanding of the purpose of his work. Nebulous ideas of the function of a hydrological survey of Zambia serve little purpose to the employee making the plans or those who execute them. A dissemination and free flow of ideas in all directions is necessary in any scientific and creative organization. The primary functions of the Hydrological Branch of the Water Affairs Department of Zambia are twofold: Water resource appraisal which includes the inventory of all surface and ground waters; Research, both basic and applied, in the science of water. Possibly some function regarding water law is also conceivable, although attachment of a law enforcement function to water-resource investigations might weaken the position of the Branch as an unbiased scientific organization. As the collection of basic streamflow data is a primary function of the Branch the following instructions for the collection, analysis and computation of streamflow records have been written.

Open-File Report↗

Mapping cropland extent of Southeast and Northeast Asia using multi-year time-series Landsat 30-m data using Random Forest classifier on Google Earth Engine

Cropland extent maps are useful components for assessing food security. Ideally, such products are a useful addition to countrywide agricultural statistics since they are not politically biased and can be used to calculate cropland area for any spatial unit from an individual farm to various administrative unites (e.g., state, county, district) within and across nations, which in turn can be used to estimate agricultural productivity as well as degree of disturbance on food security from natural disasters and political conflict. However, existing cropland extent maps over large areas (e.g., Country, region, continent, world) are derived from coarse resolution imagery (250 m to 1 km pixels) and have many limitations such as missing fragmented and\or small farms with mixed signatures from different crop types and\or farming practices that can be, confused with other land cover. As a result, the coarse resolution maps have limited useflness in areas where fields are small (<1 ha), such as in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, coarse resolution cropland maps have known uncertainties in both geo-precision of cropland location as well as accuracies of the product. To overcome these limitations, this research was conducted using multi-date, multi-year 30-m Landsat time-series data for 3 years chosen from 2013 to 2016 for all Southeast and Northeast Asian Countries (SNACs), which included 7 refined agro-ecological zones (RAEZ) and 12 countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Cambodia, Japan, North Korea, Laos, South Korea, and Brunei). The 30-m (1 pixel = 0.09 ha) data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) were used in the study. Ten Landsat bands were used in the analysis (blue, green, red, NIR, SWIR1, SWIR2, Thermal, NDVI, NDWI, LSWI) along with additional layers of standard deviation of these 10 bands across 1 year, and global digital elevation model (GDEM)-derived slope and elevation bands. To reduce the impact of clouds, the Landsat imagery was time-composited over four time-periods (Period 1: January- April, Period 2: May-August, and Period 3: September-December) over 3-years. Period 4 was the standard deviation of all 10 bands taken over all images acquired during the 2015 calendar year. These four period composites, totaling 42 band data-cube, were generated for each of the 7 RAEZs. The reference training data (N = 7849) generated for the 7 RAEZ using sub-meter to 5-m very high spatial resolution imagery (VHRI) helped generate the knowledge-base to separate croplands from non-croplands. This knowledge-base was used to code and run a pixel-based random forest (RF) supervised machine learning algorithm on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing environment to separate croplands from non-croplands. The resulting cropland extent products were evaluated using an independent reference validation dataset (N = 1750) in each of the 7 RAEZs as well as for the entire SNAC area. For the entire SNAC area, the overall accuracy was 88.1% with a producer’s accuracy of 81.6% (errors of omissions = 18.4%) and user’s accuracy of 76.7% (errors of commissions = 23.3%). For each of the 7 RAEZs overall accuracies varied from 83.2 to 96.4%. Cropland areas calculated for the 12 countries were compared with country areas reported by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and other national cropland statistics resulting in an R 2 value of 0.93. The cropland areas of provinces were compared with the province statistics that showed an R 2 = 0.95 for South Korea and R 2 = 0.94 for Thailand. The cropland products are made available on an interactive viewer at www.croplands.org and for download at National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC): https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/node/1281 .

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

Conference Paper↗

The 1999 Southern California Seismic Network bulletin

The Pasadena office of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), together with the Caltech Seismological Laboratory, operates a network of more than 350 remote seismometers in southern California called the S outhern C alifornia S eismic N etwork (SCSN). SCSN is part of TriNet, a cooperative project between the USGS, Caltech, and the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG). The TriNet project is halfway completed and is upgrading the existing network to digital, adding new stations, and developing real-time and earthquake-alert capabilities. Signals from the SCSN sites are telemetered to a central processing location at the Caltech Seismological Lab in Pasadena. Computers that detect and record thousands of earthquakes each year continuously monitor these signals. Phase arrival times for these events are picked by analysts and are archived along with digital seismograms. Data acquisition, processing, and archiving are achieved using the Caltech/USGS Seismic Processing (CUSP) system ( Dollar, 1989 ). These data have been compiled into the SCSN Catalog of Earthquakes, a list beginning in 1932 that currently contains more than 356,300 events. Waveform, phase, and catalog data are archived by the Southern California Earthquake Center Data Center (SCEC_DC). This data set is critical to the evaluation of earthquake hazards in California and to the advancement of geoscience as a whole.

California↗

Nonlinear refraction and reflection travel time tomography

We develop a rapid nonlinear travel time tomography method that simultaneously inverts refraction and reflection travel times on a regular velocity grid. For travel time and ray path calculations, we apply a wave front method employing graph theory. The first-arrival refraction travel times are calculated on the basis of cell velocities, and the later refraction and reflection travel times are computed using both cell velocities and given interfaces. We solve a regularized nonlinear inverse problem. A Laplacian operator is applied to regularize the model parameters (cell slownesses and reflector geometry) so that the inverse problem is valid for a continuum. The travel times are also regularized such that we invert travel time curves rather than travel time points. A conjugate gradient method is applied to minimize the nonlinear objective function. After obtaining a solution, we perform nonlinear Monte Carlo inversions for uncertainty analysis and compute the posterior model covariance. In numerical experiments, we demonstrate that combining the first arrival refraction travel times with later reflection travel times can better reconstruct the velocity field as well as the reflector geometry. This combination is particularly important for modeling crustal structures where large velocity variations occur in the upper crust. We apply this approach to model the crustal structure of the California Borderland using ocean bottom seismometer and land data collected during the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment along two marine survey lines. Details of our image include a high-velocity zone under the Catalina Ridge, but a smooth gradient zone between. Catalina Ridge and San Clemente Ridge. The Moho depth is about 22 km with lateral variations. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Developing a photography-based harvest survey to estimate age and subspecies composition of midcontinent sandhill cranes

Midcontinent sandhill cranes ( Antigone canadensis ) are managed as a single population, but hunting regulations are structured so harvest is targeted towards the more numerous lesser sandhill cranes ( A. c. canadensis ). However, research indicates that greater sandhill cranes ( A. c. tabida ) have been disproportionally exposed to harvest at a rate exceeding their proportion within the midcontinent population. In addition, harvest has increased 22% per year in the U.S. Central Flyway states. The midcontinent population appears to be growing in recent years, but variability in annual abundance estimates has increased substantially. With limited resources and harvest management uncertainty increasing, we developed methods for a citizen science, photography-based harvest survey to estimate age and subspecies composition of harvested midcontinent sandhill cranes. To develop survey methods, we collected physical parts from 284 sandhill cranes in North Dakota in 2019 and 2020. We manually measured the culmen and tarsus using calipers, and digitally measured these parts using photographs and computer software. All digitally derived measurements were 2.5% to 5.9% larger than manual measurements; therefore, we developed linear models that adjusted digital measurements, facilitating subspecies prediction using an existing morphometric-based technique. In 2021, we requested an equal number of hunters to participate using 2 data collection methods to test if hunters could reliably take photographs suitable for digital measurement. Collection method 1 involved photographing the head and leg simultaneously, and Collection method 2 involved photographing the head only. Hunters submitted a total of 239 photographs. Only 80 of these photographs were submitted using Collection method 1, and 72% were suitable for digital measurement. Conversely, hunters submitted twice as many photographs using Collection method 2, and 88% of these photographs were deemed suitable. Although obtaining the tarsus measurement slightly improved subspecies predictability, Collection method 2 increased participation and usable data. We believe our results could be used to develop an operational survey of age and subspecies composition of midcontinent sandhill cranes, wherein a sample of crane hunters throughout the midcontinent population range would be asked to electronically submit a photograph of the head of each bird they harvest. A time series of age and subspecies composition of this population would provide managers with valuable information and improve harvest management at minimal additional cost and burden, compared to a traditional parts collection survey administered by mail.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Chamber measurement of surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange: Numerical evaluation of dependence on soil interfacial layer, and source/sink products

We employed a three-dimensional finite difference gas diffusion model to simulate the performance of chambers used to measure surface-atmosphere tace gas exchange. We found that systematic errors often result from conventional chamber design and deployment protocols, as well as key assumptions behind the estimation of trace gas exchange rates from observed concentration data. Specifically, our simulationshowed that (1) when a chamber significantly alters atmospheric mixing processes operating near the soil surface, it also nearly instantaneously enhances or suppresses the postdeployment gas exchange rate, (2) any change resulting in greater soil gas diffusivity, or greater partitioning of the diffusing gas to solid or liquid soil fractions, increases the potential for chamber-induced measurement error, and (3) all such errors are independent of the magnitude, kinetics, and/or distribution of trace gas sources, but greater for trace gas sinks with the same initial absolute flux. Finally, and most importantly, we found that our results apply to steady state as well as non-steady-state chambers, because the slow rate of gas diffusion in soil inhibits recovery of the former from their initial non-steady-state condition. Over a range of representative conditions, the error in steady state chamber estimates of the trace gas flux varied from -30 to +32%, while estimates computed by linear regression from non-steadystate chamber concentrations were 2 to 31% too small. Although such errors are relatively small in comparison to the temporal and spatial variability characteristic of trace gas exchange, they bias the summary statistics for each experiment as well as larger scale trace gas flux estimates based on them.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Toward next-generation lava flow forecasting: Development of a fast, physics-based lava propagation model

During effusive volcanic crises, the eruption and propagation of lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. Consequently, timely lava flow forecasts are a critical need for volcano observatory and emergency management operations. Previous lava flow modeling tools are typically either too slow to produce timely forecasts, or are fast, but lack critical aspects of lava physics or important forecasting outputs. In particular, the strong thermal stratification present in laminar, high-Prandtl number flows has generally been neglected. Bulk rheological changes have previously been computed from cell-averaged temperatures, assuming that the flow is thermally mixed. Here, we detail the development and initial testing of Lava2d, a new two-dimensional depth-averaged finite volume model of lava flow propagation over natural terrain which accounts for bulk rheological changes due to thermorheological stratification. We use a novel approach to energy conservation based on tracking cooling and solidifying at the flow base and at the moving flow surface, allowing for the estimation of more realistic vertical thermorheological profiles, while maintaining computational efficiency, producing very timely model runs. We validate our approach with three examples: comparison with theoretical propagation of crust-dominated lava flows, comparison with a large-scale molten basalt experiment from the Syracuse University Lava Project, and efficiency testing and comparison with the initial phase of the 1984 Mauna Loa lava flows. Our model is shown to produce rapid, realistic forecasts, making it a good candidate for operationalization in active volcanic regions such as in Hawai'i.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth↗

Low-altitude aerial color digital photographic survey of the San Andreas Fault

Ever since 1858, when Gaspard-Félix Tournachon (pen name Félix Nadar) took the first aerial photograph (Professional Aerial Photographers Association 2009), the scientific value and popular appeal of such pictures have been widely recognized. Indeed, Nadar patented the idea of using aerial photographs in mapmaking and surveying. Since then, aerial imagery has flourished, eventually making the leap to space and to wavelengths outside the visible range. Yet until recently, the availability of such surveys has been limited to technical organizations with significant resources. Geolocation required extensive time and equipment, and distribution was costly and slow. While these situations still plague older surveys, modern digital photography and lidar systems acquire well-calibrated and easily shared imagery, although expensive, platform-specific software is sometimes still needed to manage and analyze the data. With current consumer-level electronics (cameras and computers) and broadband internet access, acquisition and distribution of large imaging data sets are now possible for virtually anyone. In this paper we demonstrate a simple, low-cost means of obtaining useful aerial imagery by reporting two new, high-resolution, low-cost, color digital photographic surveys of selected portions of the San Andreas fault in California. All pictures are in standard jpeg format. The first set of imagery covers a 92-km-long section of the fault in Kern and San Luis Obispo counties and includes the entire Carrizo Plain. The second covers the region from Lake of the Woods to Cajon Pass in Kern, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties (151 km) and includes Lone Pine Canyon soon after the ground was largely denuded by the Sheep Fire of October 2009. The first survey produced a total of 1,454 oblique digital photographs (4,288 x 2,848 pixels, average 6 Mb each) and the second produced 3,762 nadir images from an elevation of approximately 150 m above ground level (AGL) on the southeast leg and 300 m AGL on the northwest leg. Spatial resolution (pixel size or ground sample distance) is a few centimeters. Time and geographic coordinates of the aircraft were automatically written into the exchangeable image file format (EXIF) data within each jpeg photograph. A few hours after acquisition and validation, the photographs were uploaded to a publicly accessible Web page. The goal was to obtain quick-turnaround, low-cost, high-resolution, overlapping, and contiguous imagery for use in planning field operations, and to provide imagery for a wide variety of land use and educational studies. This work was carried out in support of ongoing geological research on the San Andreas fault, but the technique is widely applicable beyond geology.

California↗

U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33

Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant potential for future damaging shaking; these statistics speak to the need for nationwide interest and investment in earthquake hazard characterization and risk reduction. Authorized under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Authorization Act, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) provides the scientific information, situational awareness, and knowledge necessary to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses from earthquakes and earthquake-induced tsunamis, landslides, and soil liquefaction. The EHP supports activities in three focused topical areas: (1) earthquake monitoring, (2) hazard assessment, and (3) applied research, using the results of each—and the coordination among them—to further support risk translation and communication in regions at risk nationwide. For earthquake monitoring, the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), a cooperative effort of USGS networks, university partner regional seismic networks, and real-time geodetic networks, collects and analyzes data on earthquakes; issues timely, reliable notifications of their occurrence and impacts; and provides data for earthquake research, hazard, and risk assessment as a foundation for building an earthquake-resilient Nation. The USGS-operated ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system is a recent addition to EHP’s ANSS infrastructure. In the realm of earthquake hazard assessment, the EHP contributes to earthquake risk mitigation strategies by developing the National Seismic Hazard Model and maps, and other related products, that describe the likelihood and potential effects of earthquakes nationwide, especially in the urban areas of highest risk. The EHP also conducts research on the causes, characteristics, and effects of earthquakes and prioritizes work that directly increases the accuracy and precision of earthquake hazards assessments, earthquake forecasts, and earthquake monitoring and situational-awareness products and that supports the Nation’s earthquake mitigation practices. Bridging the EHP’s efforts across research, hazard assessments, and earthquake monitoring is a broad and comprehensive collection of earthquake information products, including the National Seismic Hazard Model, ShakeAlert, and other products describing impact, such as ShakeMap and PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), which have been developed and integrated into EHP’s real-time monitoring systems. EHP funds external partners to carry out many important collaborative activities through an active external grants program—one of the largest in the USGS—and through cooperative agreements with other partners such as the university-operated regional seismic networks, funded as part of the ANSS. To continue its support of earthquake hazard characterization and risk reduction, the EHP aims to strengthen its foundational products and practices while positioning itself to respond to the evolving needs of the Nation and follow best practices of the scientific community. This document describes a strategy for the program to ensure it can meet these demands. The foundational priorities outlined in this strategy represent those activities that remain critical to the core functionality of the program and those that can be supported under current fiscal year 2024-level appropriations. Priorities described as aspirational are important for future growth, and to maintain the program’s position as a leading global resource in earthquake science, but would require increases in appropriated funding to be fully realized. Across the program’s portfolio of activities, several major themes have been identified as the most critical activities to advance EHP science over the coming decade. Together, these activities provide the framework necessary to integrate critical hazard characterization and risk reduction activities across the program. They provide the structure for research to advance the understanding of where, when, and why earthquakes occur and how we can use improved knowledge to drive short-term and actionable forecasts of seismic activity. They expand the usefulness of critical earthquake products and advance the sophistication of those products to keep pace with the rapidly evolving needs of an ever-expanding user base while maintaining the position of the USGS as a global leader in earthquake science. Focus on system-level science. Establish an automated earthquake-processing pipeline. Enhance the accuracy and reliability of the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system and plan for extension to other regions. Implement time-dependent earthquake forecasting. Develop physically realistic models. Expand computational capacity. This science strategy is organized into three primary sections. The first section provides an overview of the EHP and its budget, governance, and program council. Readers familiar with the program may wish to focus on the second section, which describes the core of the science strategy, including priorities across each of the EHP’s major program activities in monitoring, hazard assessment, and targeted research. The third section outlines science priorities that cut across program activities, including those involving collaborations external to the EHP.

American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, U↗

Fifty years of riverine harmful algal bloom modeling: A global synthesis of approaches, challenges, and opportunities

This systematic literature review critically examines 162 articles on harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in riverine systems to uncover persistent gaps, redefine critical challenges, and propose trackable opportunities to advance future modeling efforts. Articles largely focused on site-specific applications (93%) across more than 80 rivers worldwide. Most modeled systems were large, eutrophic rivers with flow modifications or obstructions. Geographic clustering of modeled systems was pronounced, with South Korea accounting for 26% of articles, followed by Europe (25%), United States (21%), and China (12%). Modeling approaches were led by process-based models (59%), though use of data-driven models (37%) increased over time, reflecting advances in computing and monitoring technology. Modeling endpoints varied widely across the articles with many focused on gross measures of algal abundance and fewer representing more refined endpoints like algal toxins or community composition. Furthermore, inconsistent units and taxonomic resolution hindered comparability between models. Datasets used for model development and calibration typically spanned 5 years, with weekly to monthly sampling at 1–10 sites, though durations and site counts were positively skewed. Quantitative metrics of model skill were often absent and included a diverse set of metrics when reported. Across all models, nutrients, light availability, streamflow, algal physiological processes, and water temperature emerged as key predictors, though algal processes were rarely incorporated in data-driven models. Scenario analyses primarily were conducted with process-based models and addressed flow management, whereas forecasting applications were less common and typically used data-driven models. After almost 50 years of riverine HAB modeling, persistent challenges include underrepresentation of benthic habitats, neglect of side-channel and backwater influences, insufficient documentation of river features, and weak linkages between modeled endpoints and potential harms. Addressing these gaps through reporting of contextual information, models from other aquatic settings, benchmark datasets, and community-driven tools could advance riverine HAB modeling towards increased transferability and ultimately operational forecasts.

Water Research↗

Statistical summaries of New Jersey streamflow records

In 1961 the U.S. Geological Survey prepared a report which was published by the State of New Jersey as Water Resources Circular 6, "New Jersey Streamflow Records analyzed with Electronic Computer" by Miller and McCall. Basic discharge data for periods of record through 1958 were analyzed for 59 stream-gaging stations in New Jersey and flow-duration, low-flow, and high-flow tables were presented. The purpose of the current report is to update and expand Circular 6 by presenting, with a few meaningful statistics and tables, the bulk of the information that may be obtained from the mass of streamflow records available. The records for 79 of approximately 110 stream-gaging stations presently or previously operated in New Jersey, plus records for three stations in Pennsylvania, and one in New York are presented in summarized form. In addition to inclusing a great number of stations in this report, more years of record and more tables are listed for each station. A description of the station, three arrangements of data summarizing the daily flow records and one table listing statistics of the monthly mean flows are provided. No data representing instantaneous extreme flows are given. Plotting positions for the three types of curves describing the characteristics of daily discharge are listed for each station. Statistical parameters are also presented so that alternate curves may be drawn. All stations included in this report have 5 or more years of record. The data presented herein are based on observed flow past the gaging station. For any station where the observed flow is affected by regulation or diversion, a "Remarks" paragraph, explaining the possible effect on the data, is included in the station description. Since any streamflow record is a sample in time, the data derived from these records can provide only a guide to expected future flows. For this reason the flow records are analyzed by statistical techniques, and the magnitude of sampling errors should be recognized. These analyzed data will be useful to a large number of municipal, state, and federal agencies, industries, utilities, engineers, and hydrologists concerned with the availability, conservation, control, and use of surface waters. The tabulated data and curves illustrated herein can be used to select sites for water supplies, to determine flood or drought storage requirements, and to appraise the adequacy of flows for dilution of wastes or generation of power. The statistical values presented herein can be used in computer programs available in many universities, Federal and State agencies, and engineering firms for a broad spectrum of research and other studies.

New Jersey↗

Evaluation of some software measuring displacements using GPS in real-time

For the past decade, the USGS has been monitoring deformation at various locations in the western United States using continuous GPS. The main focus of these measurements are estimates of displacement averaged over one day. Essentially, these consist of recording at 30 seconds intervals the carrier-frequency phase-data (equivalent to travel-time) between a GPS receiver and the GPS satellite network. In turn, these observations, which are converted to pseudo—ranges, are processed using one of the “research grade” programs (GIPSY, Zumberge et al., or GAMIT, wwwgpsg.mit.edu/~simon/gtgk) to estimate the position of the GPS receiver averaged over 24 hours. However, it is possible and desirable to estimate the position of the receiver (actually the antenna) more frequently and to do this within a few seconds of the time actual measurement (known as real-time). A recent example, the 2004 Magnitude 6, Parkfield, California earthquake, demonstrated that having GPS estimates of position more frequently than simply a daily average is required if one requires discrimination between co-seismic and post-seismic deformation (Langbein et al., 2006). The high-rate estimates of position obtained at Parkfield show that post-seismic deformation started less than one-hour after the mainshock and that this deformation was roughly the same magnitude as the co-seismic deformation. The high-rate solutions for Parkfield were done by others including Yehuda Bock at UCSD and Kristine Larson at U. of Colorado, but not the USGS. The Parkfield experience points out the need for an in-house capability by the USGS to be able to accurately measure co-seismic displacements and other rapid, deformation signals using GPS. This applies to both the Earthquake and Volcano Hazard programs. Although at many locations where we monitor deformation, we have strainmeters and tiltmeters in addition to GPS which, in principle, are far more sensitive to rapid deformation over periods of less than a day (Langbein and Bock, 2004). But, not all locales include strain and tiltmeters. Thus, having the capability to extract signals with periods of less than a day is desirable since the distribution of GPS is more extensive than strain and tilt. At both Parkfield and Long Valley, the USGS has been using other software packages to process the GPS data at sub-daily intervals and in real-time. The underlying goal of these types of measurements is to detect any deformation event as it evolves; the 24 hour processing might not provide timely results if such a deformation event is precursory to a geologic hazard (an earthquake for Parkfield and either a volcanic event or an earthquake for Long Valley). In Long Valley, We use the software package called 3DTracker (http://www.3dtracker.com, http://www.condorearth.com) to estimate the changes of in position of a remote site relative to a “fixed” site. The 3DTracker software uses double difference GPS code measurements and receiversatellite-time triple differences from one epoch to the next of the GPS phase data (a proxy for travel-time measurements) and employs a Kalman filter to obtain stability in the estimate of position. That is, the estimate of the current position depends upon the estimate of the prior position. Hence, a time series of position looks fairly smooth depending upon the coefficient selected for the Kalman filter. With triple differences, the sometimes troublesome initial integer cycle ambiguity terms cancel (number of wavelengths between the receiver and each satellite), but only the incremental change in position is calculated. This triple difference Kalman filter solution is slow to converge and less accurate than a double difference (e.g., RTD, Track) solution, but it is robust and computationally efficient (Remondi and Brown, 2000). 3D-Tracker allows use of various single-frequency and dual-frequency GPS phase and code observables including the ionospheric-free combinations (known as LC or L3 and P(L3)) formed from an linear combination of the L1 and L2 carrier phase and code data. The lowest noise observable is the L1 carrier, but it is biased by ionospheric refraction that has amplitudes of about 1 to 10 ppm. This results in a systematic scale error in the relative positions. The L3 phase noise is about 3 times greater than the L1 phase noise, but it is generally used to solve for all but the shortest baselines (< 5 km). In addition, the software does output the position changes is a standard format that can be used for other analysis. At Parkfield, we use the software package called RTD (http://www.geodetics.com). The RTD software has been described in the literature (Bock et al., 2000) but basically, it estimates the position without the constraint of a Kalman filter. It uses double differences (in our studies the LC or ionospheric free observable is used) and the integer ambiguities are resolved independently for each 1-second measurement; Most GPS software that use double-differences require several epochs of measurements to resolve the integer ambiguities. The data files use a proprietary format and can not be read by me or others; rather, Yehuda Bock at UCSD (and author of RTD) translates these files into a standard format that can be read by me. Recently, Tom Herring of MIT has modified the GAMIT software to process kinematically GPS data (www-gpsg.mit.edu/~simon/gtgk/tutorial/Lecture_13.pdf). At this time, the software, known as TRACK, does not process the observations in real-time. Consequently, the latency between the time of the observation and the time when a position estimate is available depends upon the frequency that the data are downloaded and the speed of actually processing the observations; there could be a delay of an hour or two before the a position estimates are available. Unlike RTD and 3DTracker, TRACK comes with GAMIT (which is distributed freely) and is currently operating in a test mode at the USGS office in Pasadena. The LC or ionosphere free observable is used in our TRACK solutions. JPL has a version of their GIPSY software called “Real-time GIPSY (RTG)” (gipsy.jpl.nasa.gov/orms/rtg), which, like TRACK, can process the pseudo-range data “off—line”. However, this software is not freely distributed. Instead, at least one company, NAVCOM, has teamed with JPL to integrate RTG with GPS receivers and telemetry that yields positions in realtime. Kristine Larson of University of Colorado has modified the original GIPSY to estimate positions kinematically. Again, like TRACK, the positions are estimated off—line. Much of her research is described in Larson et al. (2003), and Choi et al. (2004). For Long Valley, out of the 17 GPS sites, we monitor 5 baselines within the caldera at 5 second intervals relative to the Bald Mountain site at the edge of the caldera using 3DTracker. The baseline measurement using 3DTracker consists of determination of the 3 dimensional positions of the 5 remote points (GPS receivers) relative to a GPS site at Bald. A second, independent system collects and downloads once a day the 30-second data used for the 24-hour solutions for the 12 sites not monitored with 3DTracker. For the sites monitored with 3DTracker, the pseudo—range data are decimated to 30 seconds and converted to a form used for the 24-hour solutions. Both sets of telemetry employ 900 MHz spread spectrum radios which require line of site between all of the links. The telemetry for the 3DTracker sites require a dedicated radios at each end and intermediate repeaters as needed, while the telemetry required for the other sites use a single master radio, repeaters as needed, and a radio at each remote site. (The 5 sites being monitored with 3DTracker require 13 radios.) At Parkfield, RTD is used to measure the position changes all 12 baselines at 1 second intervals relative to a site, Pomm, adjacent to the San Andreas Fault. The complete RTD package (hardware and software) collects all of the data and determines the position of each site relative to Pomm. In addition, the system stores both the 1-second and 30-second pseudo-range data for later downloading which are ultimately used in the 24-hour solutions. To do this, each site has a 2.4 GHz radio and a telemetry buffer. The telemetry buffer holds 24-hours of data (in the event that the telemetry link is broken) and converts the RS232 data stream from the GPS receiver into a form compatible with an IP (Internet protocol) network connection. In contrast with the Long Valley system, the telemetry link for GPS at Parkfield consists of a single radio at each remote sites and a single radio at the central site. Although position estimates are produced within 1-second of the observations, these results are not immediately available because there is no high speed Internet connection to Parkfield. Instead, the data are stored on a removable disk and sent to UCSD once per month. Below, I describe the results of a simple experiment to examine the response of some of these systems to simulated deformation that could be an analogue of a tectonic or volcanic event. In many engineering applications, the system response is tested by inputting a step to the system and measuring the output of the system. Essentially, this is what I've done. The experiment described below moves the GPS antenna from its original position to a new position within 1 second; the software tracks the translation. These measurements were conducted in August 2004 with the RTD software at Parkfield, and twice in Long Valley. The first Long Valley test was conducted in September 2004 using 3DTracker on a single baseline. The test was repeated in September 2005 using 3DTracker on two baselines and, importantly, saving the RINEX files of the data so that the data could be replayed through 3DTracker using other options in the program and, using other software packages including TRACK. In addition, we observed a short-term event at the Three Sisters volcano in Oregon. This event was snow melt at a remote GPS site which gave an apparent 15 cm displacement in vertical in less than one-day. 3DTracker is used to monitor this site, and the event was captured with this software. In addition, with the assistance of others, I got additional estimates of position using other software packages; those results are presented. Finally, the precision of both 3DTracker and RTD are compared using a power spectrum. Those results would suggest that 3DTracker using appropriate Kalman filter coefficients would have better precision than RTD; instead, the lower noise level from 3DTracker is a result of smoothing from the Kalman filter. Given the results described in this report, high-rate GPS is certainly capable of accurately measuring displacements of 1 centimeter with a high degree of statistical confidence. Plotting these results show that the time of the displacement can be visually determined to that of the sampling interval of the data. However, especially with small amplitude signals, any of the software packages can yield erroneous deformation “signals” that are either due excess travel-time of the GPS carrier frequency from multipath or a limitation in the software. Thus, the time series of displacements must be viewed with caution and knowledge of external circumstances that might cause a change in position. The casual reader should continue with the next section describing the methods then jump to the last two sections for the discussion and conclusions. I have made some recommendations there.

Open-File Report↗

Premonitory acoustic emissions and stick-slip in natural and smooth-faulted Westerly granite

A stick-slip event was induced in a cylindrical sample of Westerly granite containing a preexisting natural fault by loading at constant confining pressure of 150 MPa. Continuously recorded acoustic emission (AE) data and computer tomography (CT)-generated images of the fault plane were combined to provide a detailed examination of microscale processes operating on the fault. The dynamic stick-slip event, considered to be a laboratory analog of an earthquake, generated an ultrasonic signal that was recorded as a large-amplitude AE event. First arrivals of this event were inverted to determine the nucleation site of slip, which is associated with a geometric asperity on the fault surface. CT images and AE locations suggest that a variety of asperities existed in the sample because of the intersection of branch or splay faults with the main fault. This experiment is compared with a stick-slip experiment on a sample prepared with a smooth, artificial saw-cut fault surface. Nearly a thousand times more AE were observed for the natural fault, which has a higher friction coefficient (0.78 compared to 0.53) and larger shear stress drop (140 compared to 68 MPa). However at the measured resolution, the ultrasonic signal emitted during slip initiation does not vary significantly between the two experiments, suggesting a similar dynamic rupture process. We propose that the natural faulted sample under triaxial compression provides a good laboratory analogue for a field-scale fault system in terms of the presence of asperities, fault surface heterogeneity, and interaction of branching faults. ?? 2009.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗