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Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2000 to 2030 - A summary of findings

The San Francisco Bay region sits astride a dangerous “earthquake machine,” the tectonic boundary between the Pacific and North American Plates. The region has experienced major and destructive earthquakes in 1838, 1868, 1906, and 1989, and future large earthquakes are a certainty. The ability to prepare for large earthquakes is critical to saving lives and reducing damage to property and infrastructure. An increased understanding of the timing, size, location, and effects of these likely earthquakes is a necessary component in any effective program of preparedness. This study reports on the probabilities of occurrence of major earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) for the three decades 2000 to 2030. The SFBR extends from Healdsberg on the northwest to Salinas on the southeast and encloses the entire metropolitan area, including its most rapidly expanding urban and suburban areas. In this study a “major” earthquake is defined as one with M≥6.7 (where M is moment magnitude). As experience from the Northridge, California (M6.7, 1994) and Kobe, Japan (M6.9, 1995) earthquakes has shown us, earthquakes of this size can have a disastrous impact on the social and economic fabric of densely urbanized areas. To reevaluate the probability of large earthquakes striking the SFBR, the U.S. Geological Survey solicited data, interpretations, and analyses from dozens of scientists representing a wide crosssection of the Earth-science community (Appendix A). The primary approach of this new Working Group (WG99) was to develop a comprehensive, regional model for the long-term occurrence of earthquakes, founded on geologic and geophysical observations and constrained by plate tectonics. The model considers a broad range of observations and their possible interpretations. Using this model, we estimate the rates of occurrence of earthquakes and 30-year earthquake probabilities. Our study considers a range of magnitudes for earthquakes on the major faults in the region—an innovation over previous studies of the SFBR that considered only a small number of potential earthquakes of fixed magnitude.

California

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires. The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be solicited to construct these scenarios. The methods for mapping the current LULC and ecosystem disturbances will require the extensive use of both remote-sensing data and field-survey data (for example, forest inventories) to capture and characterize landscape-changing events. For potential LULC changes and ecosystem disturbances, key drivers such as socioeconomic and climate changes will be used in addition to the biophysical data. The result of these analyses will be a series of maps for each future year for each scenario. These annual maps will form the basis for estimating carbon storage and GHG emissions. For terrestrial ecosystems, carbon storage, carbon-sequestration capacities, and GHG emissions under the present conditions and future scenarios will be assessed using the LULC-change and ecosystem-disturbance estimates in map format with a spatially explicit biogeochemical ensemble modeling system that incorporates properties of management activities (such as tillage or harvesting) and properties of individual ecosystems (such as energy exchange, vegetation characteristics, hydrological cycling, and soil attributes). For aquatic ecosystems, carbon burial in sediments and fluxes of GHG are functions of the present and future potential stream flow and sediment transport and will be assessed using empirical hydrological modeling methods. Validation and uncertainty analysis methods described in the methodology will follow established guidelines to assess the quality of the assessment results. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Level II ecoregions map will be the practical instrument for developing and delivering assessment results. Consequently, the ecoregion (there are 22 modified ecoregions) will be the reporting unit of the assessment because the scenarios, assessment results, validation, and uncertainty analysis will be produced at that scale. The implementation of these methods will require collaborations among various Federal agencies, State agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and the science community. Using the method described in this document, the assessment can be completed in approximately 3 to 4 years. The primary deliverables will be assessment reports containing tables, charts, and maps that will present the estimated GHG parameters annually for 2001 through 2050 by ecosystem, pool, and scenario. The results will permit the evaluation of a range of policies, mitigation options, and research topics, such as the demographic, LULC-change, or climate-change effects on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and GHG fluxes in ecosystems.

Scientific Investigations Report

Monitoring recreation on federally managed lands and waters—Visitation estimation

Federally managed public lands and waters attract millions of visitors each year, generating significant economic benefits for surrounding communities. Accurate visitation data are crucial for guiding policy decisions and managing resources effectively. This report explores the methods employed by agencies to collect and use data on recreational visitation to Federal lands and waters. Visitation estimation practices across seven agencies are reviewed, revealing similarities such as the use of automated counters for on-site data collection, alongside differences in reporting frequencies, visit definitions, and public access to data. Emerging technologies, including social media, mobile device activity, and community science, are also evaluated for their potential to improve visitation estimation. Although these technologies offer promising opportunities, they come with challenges such as data biases, the need for calibration, costs, and privacy concerns. The report concludes with opportunities to enhance data collection, coordination, and accessibility, ensuring more efficient resource management and informed decision making.

Scientific Investigations Report

hical—The HiRISE radiometric calibration software developed within the ISIS3 planetary image processing suite

Introduction This report summarizes the software and algorithms that are used to calibrate images returned by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft. The instrument design and data processing methods are summarized below, followed by a description of relevant calibration data and details of the calibration procedure. In this document, we describe the software that uses those coefficients and matrices to radiometrically calibrate HiRISE data. This software is included in version 3 of the Integrated Software for Imagers and Spectrometers (ISIS3), which is developed and maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey Astrogeology Science Center in Flagstaff, Ariz., for the international planetary science community via funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. ISIS3 is freely available to the scientific community and can be obtained at http://isis.astrogeology.usgs.gov/index.html . Support for ISIS3 is provided at https://github.com/USGS-Astrogeology/ISIS3 .

Techniques and Methods

Winter distribution of golden eagles in the Eastern USA

Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) have a Holarctic distribution, but some details of that overall distribution are poorly understood, including parts of the range in eastern North America. Recent studies in the region suggest that Golden Eagles may be more widely distributed than previously recognized. For species specific conservation efforts to be effective, an understanding of the distribution of the species is essential. Thus, the goal of this study was to map the winter distribution of Golden Eagles in the eastern half of the USA. To accomplish this, we reviewed and compiled 11,981 Golden Eagle records from eight data sources, including literature and ornithology records, community science data, survey data, and telemetry data. We found that Golden Eagles were observed in winter in each of the 31 states that lie completely east of the 100th meridian and in 1244 of the 2045 counties (61%) in those states. The proportion of counties with records varied by physiographic province, with higher proportions in physiographic provinces with more rugged terrain and greater forest cover. Our study shows that Golden Eagles are more widely distributed during winter in eastern USA states than was previously recognized. This work provides an important foundation for future management and research at a time when threats to this species are expanding rapidly on the landscape.

Journal of Raptor Research

Hidden in plain sight: Detecting invasive species when they are morphologically similar to native species

Early detection and rapid response (EDRR) can help mitigate and control invasive species outbreaks early on but its success is dependent on accurate identification of invasive species. We evaluated a novel outbreak in San Diego County, California of the Sonoran Spotted Whiptail ( Aspidoscelis sonorae ) in order to confirm their spread as well as quantify how to better detect and potentially manage this invasive species in California. We found that A. sonorae went undetected for over two years due to its morphological similarity to native whiptails and that it has spread rapidly since they were first observed. There are two species of native California whiptails with which A. sonorae can be confused locally, the Orange-throated Whiptail ( Aspidoscelis hyperythrus ), and to a lesser extent the Tiger Whiptail ( Aspidoscelis tigris ). We review key diagnostic features to distinguish A. sonorae from native California whiptails. We also discuss how to efficiently use widely available community science tools to rapidly assess a novel invasive species outbreak and outline suggestions to help manage cryptic invasive species.

California

Prototype downscaling algorithm for MODIS Satellite 1 km daytime active fire detections

This work presents development of an algorithm to reduce the spatial uncertainty of active fire locations within the 1 km MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Aqua and Terra) daytime detection footprint. The algorithm is developed using the finer 500 m reflective bands by leveraging on the increase in 2.13 μm shortwave infrared reflectance due to the burning components as compared to the non-burning neighborhood components. Active fire presence probability class for each of the 500 m pixels within the 1 km footprint is assigned by locally adaptive contextual tests against its surrounding neighborhood pixels. Accuracy is assessed using gas flares and wildfires in conjunction with available high-resolution imagery. Proof of concept results using MODIS observations over two sites show that under clear sky conditions, over 84% of the 500 m locations that had active fires were correctly assigned to high to medium probabilities, and correspondingly low to poor probabilities were assigned to locations with no visible flaming fronts. Factors limiting the algorithm performance include fire size/temperature distributions, cloud and smoke obscuration, sensor point spread functions, and geolocation errors. Despite these limitations, the resulting finer spatial scale of active fire detections will not only help first responders and managers to locate actively burning fire fronts more precisely but will also be useful for the fire science community.

Fire

Correcting a systematic bias in an ocean drilling project site 882 alkenone sea surface temperature record

Reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) in the geologic record are fundamental to our understanding of Earth's climate history and the evaluation of Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing. SSTs are reconstructed with a variety of methods, including alkenone biomarker lipids produced by certain coccolithophore algae. One such alkenone SST reconstruction from the subpolar northwest Pacific Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 882 (50.21° N, 167.35° E, 3244 m water depth) has played a large role in shaping the paleoclimate science community's view of global climate warmth during the Late Pliocene (3.6–2.6 million years ago) and the subsequent cooling that characterized the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (Haug, 1995; Haug et al., 2005; Martínez-Garcia et al., 2010). First, we have found that the values reported in the PANGAEA archive for this ODP Site 882 alkenone dataset were inaccurately reported as U K' 37 values when they are instead U K 37 ( https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.315092 , Haug and Sarnthein, 2005). This error in the archived data table resulted in the incorporation of inaccurate absolute SST estimates by several studies that applied U K' 37 calibrations to this ODP Site 882 dataset (e.g., Brennan et al., 2022; Clark et al., 2024, 2025; Tierney et al., 2019, 2025b). Second, using other published data from ODP Site 882 (Studer et al., 2012) and nearby Site 883 (51.11° N, 167.46° E, 2384 m water depth; Herbert et al., 2016; Novak et al., 2024), we show that the original Haug (1995) alkenone SST record at ODP Site 882 systematically reports an amplified range of absolute SST values compared to the more recently generated data. This observation is consistent with the known concentration-dependent biases of the gas chromatography chemical ionization mass spectrometry (GC-CI-MS) analytical method used by the original ODP Site 882 study (Chaler et al., 2000, 2003; Haug, 1995; Hefter, 2008; Rosell-Mele et al., 1995). These concentration-dependent analytical biases complicate applying a uniform correction to the entire Haug (1995) dataset. However, we are able to leverage the published datasets to propose a correction and quantification of uncertainty for a subset of the Haug (1995) dataset measured at similar on-column analyte abundance. For these samples, we find an average analytical uncertainty equivalent to ±2.05 °C , which is greater than and in addition to the typical ±1.4 °C 1 σ prediction uncertainty of the U K' 37 sea surface temperature proxy. We then discuss the implications of the corrected dataset for our understanding of late Neogene and Quaternary climate in the Kuroshio Extension region.

Climate of the Past

Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

Limnology and Oceanography

Repetitive digital NOAA-AVHRR data for Alaskan engineering and scientific applications

Selected digitally enhanced NOAA - Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images taken by the NOAA 6, 7, 8 and 9 Polar Orbiting Satellites demonstrate the capability and application of repetitive low-resolution satellite data to Alaska's engineering and science community. Selected cloud-free visible and thermal infrared images are enhanced to depict distinct oceanographic and geologic processes along Alaska's west coast and adjacent seas. Included are the advance of the Bering Sea ice field, transport of Yukon River sediment into Norton Sound, and monitoring of plume trajectories from the Mount Augustine volcanic eruptions. Presented illustrations are representative of the 94 scenes in a cooperative USGS EROS/NOAA Alaskan AVHRR Digital Archive. This paper will discuss the cooperative efforts in establishing the first year data set and identifying Alaskan applications.

Alaska

Mapping the global land surface using 1 km AVHRR data

The scientific requirements for mapping the global land surface using 1 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data have been set forth by the U.S. Global Change Research Program; the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP); The United Nations; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the Committee on Earth Observations Satellites; and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) mission to planet Earth (MTPE) program. Mapping the global land surface using 1 km AVHRR data is an international effort to acquire, archive, process, and distribute 1 km AVHRR data to meet the needs of the international science community. A network of AVHRR receiving stations, along with data recorded by NOAA, has been acquiring daily global land coverage since April 1, 1992. A data set of over 70,000 AVHRR images is archived and distributed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) EROS Data Center, and the European Space Agency. Under the guidance of the IGBP, processing standards have been developed for calibration, atmospheric correction, geometric registration, and the production of global 10-day maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composites. The major uses of the composites are for the study of surface vegetation condition, mapping land cover, and deriving biophysical characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems. A time-series of 54 10-day global vegetation index composites for the period of April 1, 1992 through September 1993 has been produced. The production of a time-series of 33 10-day global vegetation index composites using NOAA-14 data for the period of February 1, 1995 through December 31, 1995 is underway. The data products are available from the USGS, in cooperation with NASA's MTPE program and other international organizations.

Space Technology

AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification

This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems; - identify possible causes for the changing conditions; - detect emerging problems, their possible causes, and the potential risk to Arctic ecosystems including indigenous peoples and other Arctic residents; and to - recommend actions required to reduce risks to Arctic ecosystems. This report provides the accessible scientific basis and validation for the statements and recommendations made in the Arctic Ocean Acidification Assessment Summary for Policy-makers that was delivered to Arctic Council Ministers at their meeting in Kiruna, Sweden in May 2011 and the related AMAP State of the Arctic Environment report Arctic Ocean Acidification 2013: An Overview . It includes extensive background data and references to the scientific literature, and details the sources for figures reproduced in the overview report. Whereas the Summary for Policy-makers report contains recommendations that focus mainly on policy-relevant actions concerned with addressing the consequences of AOA, the conclusions and recommendations presented in this report also cover issues of a more scientific nature, such as proposals for filling gaps in knowledge, and recommendations relevant to future monitoring and research work. The AOA assessment was conducted between 2010 and 2013 by an international group of over 60 experts. Lead authors were selected based on an open nomination process coordinated by AMAP. A similar process was used to select international experts who independently reviewed this report. Information contained in this report is fully references and based on first and foremost peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken since 2006. It also incorporates some new (unpublished) information from monitoring and research conducted according to well-established and documented national and international standards of quality assurance/quality control protocols. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials. Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications. The AOA assessment summary reports and films have therefore been developed specifically for policy-makers, summarizing the main findings of the AOA assessment. The AOA lead authors have confirmed that both this report and its derivative products accurately and fully reflect their scientific assessment. The AOA reports and the films are freely available from the AMAP Secretariat and on the AMAP website: www.amap.no, and their use for educational purposes is encouraged. AMAP would like to express its appreciation to all experts who have contributed their time, efforts and data, in particular the lead authors who coordinated the production of this report. Thanks are also due to the reviewers who contributed to the AOA peer-review process and provided valuable comments that helped to ensure the quality of the report. A list of the main contributors is included at the start of each chapter. The list is not comprehensive. Specifically, it does not include the many national institutes, laboratories and organizations, and their staff, which have been involved in various countries in AOA-related monitoring and research. Apologies, and no lesser thanks are given to any individuals unintentionally omitted from the list. The support from the Arctic countries and non-Arctic countries implementing research and monitoring in the Arctic is vital to the success of AMAP. The AMAP work is essentially based on ongoing activities within these countries, and the countries that provide the necessary support for most the experts involved in the preparation of the AMAP assessments. In particular, AMAP would like to acknowledge Norway for taking the lead-country role in this assessment and thank Canada, Norway, Sweden, USA and the Nordic Council of Ministers for their financial support to the AOA work. The AMAP Working Group is pleased to present its assessment to the Arctic Council and the international science community. Richard Bellerby (AOA assessment Chair) Russel Shearer (AMAP Chair) Lars-Otto Reiersen (AMAP Executive Secretary) Oslo, May 2013

Report

Planetary Interactive GIS-on-the-Web Analyzable Database (PIGWAD)

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) in Flagstaff, Arizona is producing a Web-based, user-friendly interface that integrates powerful Geographic Information Systems (GIS) statistical and spatial relational tools for analyses of planetary datasets. The interface, known as “Planetary Interactive GIS-on-the-Web Analyzable Database” (PIGWAD), provides database support for the research and academic planetary science communities, particularly for geologic mapping and other surface-related investigations.

Conference Paper

Application of decision-tree techniques to forest group and basal area mapping using satellite imagery and forest inventory data

Accurate, current, and cost-effective fire fuel data are required by management and fire science communities for use in reducing wildland fire hazards over large areas. In this paper we present results of applying decision-tree techniques to mapping vegetation parameters (such as vegetation types and canopy structure classification) required for fire fuel characterization. Specifically, we present preliminary results of mapping forest types and average basal area by different forest types at 30-meter resolution. Input data into the decision tree model included Landsat-7 ETM+ spring, summer and fall greenness, brightness and wetness of the tasseled cap transformation, topographic data layers such as slope and elevation, and forest variables measured on inventory plots in the Mid-Atlantic region. Using decision-tree models, eight forest types were successfully identified in training cases and mapped for the entire mapping area. Forest basal area per unit area (conifer and deciduous) was estimated as well using regression tree models. Cross-validation conducted for both forest types and basal area showed that discrete forest type estimation error was 35% and continuous basal area relative errors were between 58 and 72%. Accuracy was higher in homogeneous forested lands and lower in areas with fragmented forest cover. The study demonstrated that decision tree and regression tree methods are efficient for large-area vegetation mapping if sufficient large-amount of reference data are available.

Conference Paper

Perspectives on LANDFIRE Prototype Project accuracy assessment

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a general overview of the many aspects of accuracy assessment pertinent to the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project (LANDFIRE Prototype Project). The LANDFIRE Prototype formed a large and complex research and development project with many broad-scale data sets and products developed throughout its various stages. The scope of the project was defined as mapping and modeling vegetation, wildland fuel, and fire regime characteristics (Rollins and others, Ch. 2). Because of the breadth of the investigation, it is important to base our expectations for accuracy on a clear understanding of the intricacies, interdependencies, and scope of mapping and modeling LANDFIRE products. Our goals in this chapter are to: 1) provide relevant background information regarding accuracies and what was realistically achievable in the LANDFIRE Prototype, 2) provide background regarding our strategies for LANDFIRE National, 3) describe our actual LANDFIRE Prototype accuracy results in broad terms, and 4) provide recommendations for the national implementation of LANDFIRE. This chapter is not intended to provide an exhaustive list and description of all of the various accuracy-related issues and conclusions resulting from the LANDFIRE Prototype (for specific details, the reader will be referred to the appropriate chapters). Rather, this chapter is intended to be broad in scope and to place the many accuracy components within the context of the LANDFIRE Prototype and LANDFIRE National projects. Please note that Lunetta and Lyon (2004) provide an in-depth discussion of the current state of accuracy assessment within the science community.

General Technical Report

Community and citizen science on the Elwha River: Past, present, and future

This report reflects on the past, present, and potential future of community and citizen science (CCS) in the Elwha River watershed, with particular focus on the years before and after a major restoration event: the removal of two dams that had impacted the river system for a century. We ask: how does CCS feature in the Elwha story and how could it feature? We use the term CCS to reference the broad range of ways in which members of the public might participate in authentic science and monitoring processes, including students and both paid and unpaid interns: participants are individuals contributing to scientific projects without prior formal training in the topic. Removal of the Elwha dams was a large-scale, complex project, and communities had an important role to play: the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe (LEKT) and other local groups were a large part of the original drive to remove the dams. Some funding and policy requirements for monitoring are ending, but there is still much to learn from the changes happening in the Elwha, requiring ongoing research and monitoring. In 2022, the Elwha scientific community came together in a multifaceted effort called the “Elwha ScienceScape” to mark the ten-year anniversary of dam removal and to plan for future monitoring. One of ScienceScape’s priorities is expanding CCS efforts, and because the Elwha dam removal is a powerful international symbol of large-scale watershed restoration, ScienceScape is well-positioned to inform and emphasize the potential role of CCS in dam removal worldwide. This report presents insights about Elwha CCS from an academic literature review and discussions with scientists and many others that have been working in the Elwha. We found that the history of CCS on the Elwha is important but understated, with few scientific papers acknowledging support by volunteers of various kinds. Recent and ongoing CCS projects on the Elwha tend to be focused on biological phenomena, and most are associated with educational opportunities (across many types of institutions) and paid internships. We also noted that most Elwha CCS projects required volunteers with particular pre-existing skill sets (e.g., botanical knowledge) or time to impart specialized training (e.g. boat use), leading many projects towards engagement with a smaller number of volunteers. Partners working in the Elwha are considering a wide range of potential new CCS projects, and these ideas are in varying stages of development. Many new projects would broaden public involvement in terms of the opportunities available and increase the variety of focal topics for research and monitoring. This increased breadth is promising: there are indications that the local community’s interests also range widely, from fish recovery after dam removal to dam removal impacts on humans. Elwha CCS projects have encountered some challenges and barriers, including the administrative burden of coordinating volunteers and managing liability concerns. But Elwha ScienceScape scientists are committed to the value that CCS brings both to the research itself as well as to those who participate in these projects. CCS can be a way to increase equity in science and engage people who would not otherwise participate in research, and in many cases the research simply wouldn’t be possible without their help. Support with project administration, volunteer management, and data management could help in expanding CCS efforts and broadening their inclusivity. More systematic tracking of CCS projects to assess how they contribute to research and to community and participant benefit could be helpful in establishing and maintaining a long-term CCS strategy in the Elwha.

Wshington

The Arctic Rivers Project: Using an equitable co-production framework for integrating meaningful community engagement and science to understand climate impacts

As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community-engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project-specific knowledge co-production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co-produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain.

Alaska

Perspectives on equitable co-production workshop report

The co-production of knowledge is increasingly recognized as an approach to conducting research intended to achieve a societal impact. In this study, we used a broad definition of co-production, defining it as “a process that brings together diverse groups to iteratively create new knowledge and practices (1).” However, co-production has been defined and conceptualized in a variety of ways (2,3), across multiple domains, including public administration, conservation, health, education, and climate change. Theoretical definitions have been introduced by scholars like Jasanoff (4) and Ostrom (5), but definitions can also be grounded in practice (6). For example, unique definitions of co-production have been advanced for work with Arctic Indigenous Peoples (7), in the context of resource management (8), and for a specific program (9). Other similar processes of engagement, such as community-based participatory research (10), action research (11), civic science (12), community science (13), and post-normal science (14) may have overlap with the concept of co-production and have been used to describe similar processes of collaboration. These distinctions and varying definitions have been discussed extensively elsewhere (see Mach et al. 2020, Wyborn et al. 2019). In the context of co-production, power plays a crucial role in shaping interactions and outcomes. Some scholars and practitioners explicitly consider power dynamics as a central element in their definitions of co-production, recognizing how power imbalances can affect participation, decision-making, and the distribution of benefits. Others, however, might not emphasize power as prominently, focusing more on the collaborative aspects without explicitly addressing the underlying power structures. This leads to divergent objectives and priorities among projects claiming to be co-produced (2,3, 6). Chambers and colleagues (2) discussed how co-production projects in the context of sustainability usually emphasize one or more of six different goals, including: researching solutions, empowering voices, brokering power, reframing power, navigating differences, and reframing agency. Because power dynamics are inherent in co-production (15), equity dimensions should be considered in these definitions and conceptualizations. Yet, in the context of government or academically led climate change research and programs, equity is a relatively new focus, even among programs that have been engaging a co-production approach for decades (9). Alternatively, in some recent work the concept of equity in co-production is explicit, but it has only been considered in a limited context (7). Here, we present a discussion about co-production that is informed by research, practice, and community perspectives across partnerships from a range of regions and topics. We are specifically interested in how different actors in these projects think about equity and work towards more equitable approaches in the context of their co-production work. This understanding is needed, as the federal government has increasingly focused on co-production approaches in the design of their programs and funding calls, and most recently the Biden administration has called on federal agencies to more intentionally center equity for underserved groups of people in their work (16). Furthermore, with the Biden administration’s focus on environmental and climate justice, the opportunity for researchers and their societal partners to engage in co-production is expanding. Numerous programs within federal agencies have embraced a co-production approach, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Adaptation Partnerships (CAP; formerly called the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments or RISA program) (9,17), Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs)(18), and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs. However, the actual implementation of co-production processes varies significantly (1,19), with multiple implications for the design of equitable partnerships. Researchers, their partners, and funders have frequently cited many tensions and challenges in the successful implementation of co-production, including higher resource demands and few systemic structures for support (20). Practically implementing co-production, especially with people who have been underrepresented in or historically excluded from research activities, must consider fairness and the accessibility of co-production processes. While co-production is often cited as important for environmental governance, issues like power and equity are infrequently addressed (15). To explore this topic, we identified and studied three projects that centered on equity in co-production from three federal climate programs (CASC, CAP, USDA Climate Hubs) in three different regions of the U.S. (Alaska, Northeast, Southeast). We aimed to identify consensus or divergence in perspectives related to equitable co-production processes to elevate effective practices and link co-production research and practice. Findings from interviews and a survey (explained further in Akerlof et al., 2023) informed a twoday hybrid workshop involving participants from the three case studies, as well as individuals representing research, governmental, non-governmental, and community organizations across the United States. Participants also included scholars of co-production, program coordinators, and people who participated in co-production projects on behalf of their communities. Several boundary spanners, those practitioners who work at the intersection of the production and use of science (21,22), also attended the workshop. The goals of the workshop were to discuss and build on what was learned from the three case studies, discuss the three distinct perspectives on equitable co-production that emerged from the pre-workshop research, and draft a framework for equitable co-production processes. During the workshop, participants considered the three perspectives on equitable co-production, defining equitable co-production for each and discussing the practical implications of each, including barriers and priorities for overcoming them. We aimed to address the question: How can federal climate programs support equitable co-production processes?

Report