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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium-SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6-14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3-4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2013

Landscape-level estimation of nitrogen removal in coastal Louisiana wetlands: potential sinks under different restoration scenarios

Coastal eutrophication in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is the primary anthropogenic contributor to the largest zone of hypoxic bottom waters in North America. Although biologically mediated processes such as denitrification (Dn) are known to act as sinks for inorganic nitrogen, it is unknown what contribution denitrification makes to landscape-scale nitrogen budgets along the coast. As the State of Louisiana plans the implementation of a 2012 Coastal Master Plan (MP) to help restore its wetlands and protect its coast, it is critical to understand what effect potential restoration projects may have in altering nutrient budgets. As part of the MP, a spatial statistical approach was developed to estimate nitrogen removal under varying scenarios of future conditions and coastal restoration project implementation. In every scenario of future conditions under which MP implementation was modeled, more nitrogen ( ) was removed from coastal waters when compared with conditions under which no action is taken. Overall, the MP increased coast-wide average nitrogen removal capacity (NRC) rates by up to 0.55 g N m −2 y −1 compared with the “future without action” (FWOA) scenario, resulting in a conservative estimate of up to 25% removal of the annual + load of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya rivers (956,480 t y −1 ). These results are spatially correlated, with the lower Mississippi River and Chenier Plain exhibiting the greatest change in NRC. Since the implementation of the MP can maintain, and in some regions increase the NRC, our results show the need to preserve the functionality of wetland habitats and use this ecosystem service ( i.e . Dn) to decrease eutrophication of the GOM.

Louisiana↗
USGS2024

Implications for the resilience of modern coastal systems derived from mesoscale barrier dynamics at Fire Island, New York

Understanding the response of coastal barriers to future changes in rates of sea level rise, sediment availability, and storm intensity/frequency is essential for coastal planning, including socioeconomic and ecological management. Identifying drivers of past changes in barrier morphology, as well as barrier sensitivity to these forces, is necessary to accomplish this. Using remote sensing, field, and laboratory analyses, we reconstruct the mesoscale (decades–centuries) evolution of central Fire Island, a portion of a 50 km barrier island fronting Long Island, New York, USA. We find that the configuration of the modern beach and foredune at Fire Island is radically different from the system's relict morphostratigraphy. Central Fire Island is comprised of at least three formerly inlet-divided rotational barriers with distinct subaerial beach and dune–ridge systems that were active prior to the mid-19th century. Varying morphologic states reflected in the relict barriers (e.g., progradational and transgressive) contrast with the modern barrier, which is dominated by a tall and nearly continuous foredune and is relatively static, except for erosion and drowning of its fringing marsh. We suggest that this state shift indicates a transition from a regime dominated by inlet-mediated gradients in alongshore sediment availability to one where human impacts exerted greater influence on island evolution from the late 19th century onward. The retention of some geomorphic capital in Fire Island's relict subaerial features combined with its static nature renders the barrier increasingly susceptible to narrowing and passive submergence. This may lead to an abrupt geomorphic state shift in the future, a veiled vulnerability that may also exist in other stabilized barriers.

New York↗
USGS1976

Availability of ground water in the area surrounding the Trident submarine construction facility, Kitsap County, Washington

This report provides general information on the water resources--with emphasis on ground-water occurrence and availability--in that part of Kitsap County (referred to as Trident Impact Area) that would be most affected by the development of the Trident submarine-construction facility at Bangor. Ground water occurs principally in a lower, confined aquifer near and below sea level and an upper, unconfined aquifer above sea level; both aquifers are extensive beneath the study area and are composed of sand and gravel layers separated by poorly permeable silt, clay, and till layers. Locally throughout the area efficiently constructed wells tapping each of the two aquifers are capable of yielding 100 to 1,300 or more gallons per minute. The estimated 1970 water use in the study area averaged about 13 million gal/day (gallons per day); of this amount about 9 million gal/day came from surface-water sources--from a large reservoir outside the study area--and about 4 million gal/day came from ground water pumped from the two aquifers. Anticipated water use soon will be about 18 to 21 million gal/day; virtually all the additional quantity required (about 5 to 8 million gal/day) above present use must come from ground-water sources. Preliminary evaluation of the aquifers suggests that an additional 1.5 million gal/day can be developed from the upper aquifer and 7 million gal/day from the lower aquifer. Existing wells tapping the lower aquifer might yield additional water and increase the total yield in the area by 3.5 million gal/day, and new wells drilled in selected areas could produce an additional 3.5 million gal/day from this aquifer. However, additional, large-scale ground-water withdrawal from the lower aquifer could induce saltwater intrusion into wells situated in coastal areas. Recommended future studies include additional data collection, monitoring of chloride concentrations in water from large-yield coastal wells, confirmation of well yields and capacities, and test-well drilling and analysis.

Washington↗
USGS2022

Fires, floods and other extreme events – How watershed processes under climate change will shape our coastlines

Ongoing sea-level rise has brought renewed focus on terrestrial sediment supply to the coast because of its strong influence on whether and how long beaches, marshes and other coastal landforms may persist into the future. Here, we summarise findings of sediment discharge from several coastal rivers, revealing that infrequent, large-magnitude events have disproportionate influence on the morphodynamics of coastal landforms and littoral cells. These event-dominated effects are most pronounced for small, steep mountainous rivers that supply beach and wetland sediment along the world’s active tectonic margins, although infrequent events are important drivers of sediment discharge for rivers worldwide. Additionally, extreme events (recurrence intervals of decades to centuries) that follow wildfires, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, extreme precipitation or – most notably – combinations of these factors can redefine coastal sediment budgets and morphology. Some of these extreme events (e.g., wildfires plus rainfall) are increasing in magnitude and frequency under modern climate warming, with the likely result of increasing sediment flux to affected coastlines. Climate change is also altering watershed processes in both high latitudes and high altitudes, resulting in increased sediment supply to downstream catchments. We conclude that sediment inputs to coastal systems are highly variable with time, and that the variability and trends in sediment input are as important to characterise as long-term averages.

Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures↗
USGS2026

High and dry: The persistence of diverse coastal marsh communities depends on available upland area and connection to surrounding waters

Sea-level-rise and alterations to natural hydrology have contributed to coastal land loss. To combat coastal land loss and maintain the ecosystem services provided by marshes, marsh creation has been broadly implemented. Marsh creation projects can be performed in conjunction with the construction of elevated terrestrial ridges that seek to mimic historic delta-formed distributary ridges. Ridges and similar elevated structures, such as those surrounding created marshes, offer the opportunity to sample the ecotones between low marsh and upland areas within a small area. We sampled marsh assemblages on elevation gradients at eight sites in the Louisiana coastal zone. We identified nine marsh communities based on co-occurrence of taxa and abiotic conditions (soil salinity, percent time inundated, soil percent moisture, soil bulk density, and soil pH) with a two-step process of hierarchical clustering and random forest classification. Inundation time and salinity were identified as the most important conditions related to community composition. We used future estimates of coastal elevations based on local relative sea-level-rise estimates to make predictions of community change up to 50 years into the future. Our predictions, meant to serve as generalizations for the coastal region, indicate a near total loss of high-elevation salt marsh communities at the sites sampled. Elevation variation supports diverse marsh communities when water is allowed to flow as in a natural marsh. Hydrology regulates inundation, and by extension, salinity. Evaluating hydrologic exchange can be incorporated into decisions regarding future marsh creation to support marsh health and persistence.

Louisiana↗
USGS2009

Extraction of lidar-based dune-crest elevations for use in examining the vulnerability of beaches to inundation during hurricanes

The morphology of coastal sand dunes plays an important role in determining how a beach will respond to a hurricane. Accurate measurements of dune height and position are essential for assessing the vulnerability of beaches to extreme coastal change during future landfalls. Lidar topographic surveys provide rapid, accurate, high-resolution datasets for identifying the location, position, and morphology of coastal sand dunes over large stretches of coast. An algorithm has been developed for identification of the crest of the most seaward sand dune that defines the landward limit of the beach system. Based on changes in beach slope along cross-shore transects of lidar data, dune elevation and location can automatically be extracted every few meters along the coastline. Dune elevations in conjunction with storm-induced water levels can be used to predict the type of coastal response (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) that may be expected during hurricane landfall. The vulnerability of the beach system at Fire Island National Seashore in New York to the most extreme of these changes, inundation, is assessed by comparing lidar-derived dune elevations to modeled wave setup and storm surge height. The vulnerability of the beach system to inundation during landfall of a Category 3 hurricane is shown to be spatially variable because of longshore variations in dune height (mean elevation = 5.44 m, standard deviation = 1.32 m). Hurricane-induced mean water levels exceed dune elevations along 70% of the coastal park, making these locations more vulnerable to inundation during a Category 3 storm.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2026

The surface elevation table and marker horizon technique: A protocol for measuring wetland elevation dynamics, narrative (Version 2.0)

The National Park Service (NPS), in response to the growing evidence and awareness of the effects of climate change on federal lands, determined that monitoring wetland elevation change is a top priority in North Atlantic Coastal parks (Stevens et al. 2010). As a result, the NPS Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network (NCBN) in collaboration with colleagues from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a protocol for monitoring wetland elevation change and other processes important for determining the viability of wetland communities. Although focused on North Atlantic Coastal parks, this document is applicable to all coastal and inland wetland regions. Wetlands exist within a narrow range of elevation that is influenced by local hydrologic conditions. For tidally influenced coastal wetlands, local hydrologic conditions may be changing as sea levels continue to rise. As sea level rises, coastal wetland systems may either a) build elevation to maintain favorable hydrologic conditions for their survival or b) become increasingly inundated beyond their physiological tolerance resulting in an eventual conversion to open water. A better understanding of these processes will help to determine the present and future viability of coastal wetlands managed by the NPS and can help address measures to ensure these communities exist into the future. This protocol provides the reader with instructions and guidelines on designing a monitoring plan or study to: Quantify elevation change in wetlands with the Surface Elevation Table (SET); understand the processes that influence elevation change, including vertical accretion (SET and Marker Horizon methods); survey the wetland surface and SET mark to a common reference datum to allow for comparing sample stations to each other and to local tidal datums; survey the SET mark to monitor its relative stability; and establish water level equipment to characterize the hydrology and tidal datums for a particular wetland site or sites. The protocol is divided into two documents: The narrative (this document) presents an overview of all aspects of monitoring wetland elevation dynamics, and a document of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) with detailed instructions on the design, installation, data collection, and data management in support of monitoring changes in wetland elevation.

Science Report↗
USGS2013

Coastal change from Hurricane Sandy and the 2012-13 winter storm season: Fire Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mounted a substantial effort in response to Hurricane Sandy including an assessment of the morphological impacts to the beach and dune system at Fire Island, New York. Field surveys of the beach and dunes collected just prior to and after landfall were used to quantify change in several focus areas. In order to quantify morphologic change along the length of the island, pre-storm (May 2012) and post-storm (November 2012) lidar and aerial photography were used to assess changes to the shoreline and beach, and to measure volumetric changes. The extent and thicknesses of overwash deposits were mapped in the field, and measurements were used to determine volume, distribution, and characteristics of the deposits. The beaches and dunes on Fire Island were severely eroded during Hurricane Sandy, and the island breached in three locations on the eastern segment of the island. Landward shift of the upper portion of the beach averaged 19.7 meters (m) but varied substantially along the coast. Shoreline change was also highly variable, but the shoreline prograded during the storm by an average of 11.4 m, due to the deposition of material eroded from the upper beach and dunes onto the lower portion of the beach. The beaches and dunes lost 54.4 percent of their pre-storm volume, and the dunes experienced overwash along 46.6 percent of the island. The inland overwash deposits account for 14 percent of the volume lost from the beaches and dunes, indicating that the majority of material was moved offshore. In the winter months following Hurricane Sandy, seven storm events with significant wave heights greater than four m were recorded at a wave buoy 30 nautical miles south of Fire Island. Monthly shoreline and profile surveys indicate that the beach continued to erode dramatically. The shoreline, which exhibited a progradational trend immediately after Sandy, eroded an average of 21.4 m between November 2012 and mid-March 2013, with a maximum landward shift of nearly 60 m. By March 2013 the elevation of the beach in the majority of the surveyed profiles was lowered below the mean high water level (0.46 m), and the beach lost an additional 18.9 percent of its remaining volume. In the final time period of the field surveys (March to April 2013), the beach began to show signs of rapid recovery, and in 90 percent of the profiles, the volume of the beach in April 2013 was similar to the volume measured immediately after Hurricane Sandy. Overall, Hurricane Sandy profoundly impacted the morphology of Fire Island and resulted in an extremely low elevation, low relief configuration that has left the barrier island vulnerable to future storms. The coastal system subsequently began to show signs of recovery, and although the beach is likely to experience continued recovery in the form of volume gains, the dunes will take years to rebuild. Events such as Sandy result in a coastal environment that is a more vulnerable to future storm impacts, but they are an important natural process of barrier islands that allow these systems to evolve in response to sea-level rise.

New York↗
USGS2026

Coral reef protection may help avert risks to people, property, and economic activity caused by projected reef degradation

Degradation of coral reefs over the past several decades has caused regional-scale erosion of the shallow seafloor that serves as a protective barrier against coastal hazards along southeast Florida, USA. How future change in coral reefs may affect coastal flooding, however, has been less attended than other factors contributing to increasing risks such as sea-level rise and more intense storms. Here, the increased flooding hazard faced by Florida's coastal communities from the projected future degradation of its adjacent coral reefs is evaluated through oceanographic, coastal engineering, habitat, geospatial, and socioeconomic modeling. Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to map flood zones at 10-m 2 resolution along 430 km of Florida's reef-lined coast for the current and projected future coral reef conditions. The projected degradation of Florida's coral reefs can increase annual flooding to more than 8.77 km 2 of land and 4,980 km of roads, affecting more than 7,315 people, $412.5 million in damages to 1,400 buildings, and economic disruption of $438.1 million annually (2024 US dollars). The degradation of Florida's coral reefs would increase the annual risk to people and structures by more than 42% and 47%, respectively, but is spatially variable due to the heterogeneous alongshore nature and distribution of the reefs and communities: the increased risk exceeds $1 million/km annually to more than 17% of the coastline but also disproportionately would affect vulnerable populations. These results help identify areas where coral reef protection could help reduce the projected increased storm flooding risk to Florida's coastal communities.

Florida↗
USGS2006

Projecting future sea level

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

California↗
USGS1990

Coastal barrier resources system mapping process

The Coastal Barrier Resources Act of 1982 (P.L. 97-348) established the Coastal Barrier Resources System (system), a 452,834 acre system of undeveloped, unprotected coastal barriers along 666 shoreline miles of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Within the 186 unites of the Coastal Barrier Resources System, most Federal expenditures that encourage development are prohibited. Section 10 of the act directed the Department of the Interior (DOI) to conduct a study and prepare a report to Congress on the Coastal Barrier Resources System. The report, delivered to Congress in December 1988, recommended additions to, or deletions from, the Coastal Barrier Resources System, and listed modifications to the boundaries of system units. The DOI's recommendations, if passed by Congress, would add about 790,884 acres and 423 miles of shoreline to the Coastal Barrier Resources System. The coastal barriers included in the Coastal Barrier Resources System by Congress in 1982 were designated based on definitions and delineation criteria development by the DOI in 1981-82. The criteria used by the DOI to delineate barriers included in the 1988 recommendations to Congress differed from those used in 1981 in several respects, reflecting advances in the scientific understanding of coastal barriers, and the functional requirements of a good definition. I outline the mapping criteria used in 1981-82 and in 1984-87 during the Section 10 study. I also discuss some of the problems encountered in consistently identifying and delineating features across a heterogeneous national coastline, and I comment on future reinventories of coastal barriers.

Biological Report - US Fish & Wildlife Service↗
USGS2015

The surface elevation table and marker horizon technique: A protocol for monitoring wetland elevation dynamics

The National Park Service, in response to the growing evidence and awareness of the effects of climate change on federal lands, determined that monitoring wetland elevation change is a top priority in North Atlantic Coastal parks (Stevens et al, 2010). As a result, the NPS Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network (NCBN) in collaboration with colleagues from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a protocol for monitoring wetland elevation change and other processes important for determining the viability of wetland communities. Although focused on North Atlantic Coastal parks, this document is applicable to all coastal and inland wetland regions. Wetlands exist within a narrow range of elevation which is influenced by local hydrologic conditions. For coastal wetlands in particular, local hydrologic conditions may be changing as sea levels continue to rise. As sea level rises, coastal wetland systems may respond by building elevation to maintain favorable hydrologic conditions for their survival. This protocol provides the reader with instructions and guidelines on designing a monitoring plan or study to: A) Quantify elevation change in wetlands with the Surface Elevation Table (SET). B) Understand the processes that influence elevation change, including vertical accretion (SET and Marker Horizon methods). C) Survey the wetland surface and SET mark to a common reference datum to allow for comparing sample stations to each other and to local tidal datums. D) Survey the SET mark to monitor its relative stability. This document is divided into two parts; the main body that presents an overview of all aspects of monitoring wetland elevation dynamics, and a collection of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) that describes in detail how to perform or execute each step of the methodology. Detailed instruction on the installation, data collection, data management and analysis are provided in this report and associated SOP’s. A better understanding of these processes will help to determine the present and future viability of coastal wetlands managed by NPS and can help address measures that will ensure these communities exist into the future.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2022

Data-driven modeling of wind waves in upper Delaware Bay with living shorelines

Living shoreline projects have been built to preserve coastal ecosystems under future climate change and sea level rise. To quantify the wave power variation across living shorelines, the wave characteristics around the constructed oyster reefs (CORs) in upper Delaware Bay were investigated in this study. Wave parameters seaward and shoreward of CORs were recorded by wave gauges in early 2018. Four winter storms happened in this period and induced strong winds and coastal flooding at the study site. To estimate the wind wave characteristics across the CORs on a yearly basis, soft computing-based models combining fully connected neural networks and long short-term memory were developed to extend the two-month energetic wave measurements. The results show that when CORs were emergent or slightly submerged, the averaged wave height attenuation was about 39.8% from the offshore gauge to the nearshore gauge (behind CORs) during 2018–2020, owing to the combined effect of nearshore bathymetric changes and CORs. Furthermore, it was found that the annually averaged wave power reduction from offshore to nearshore at the study site was about 30.0% in 2018, 2019, and 2020. This study provides a novel framework to predict long-term wave characteristics based on short-term wave measurements using soft computing-based models.

New Jersey↗
USGS2019

Assessment of Columbia and Willamette River flood stage on the Columbia Corridor Levee System at Portland, Oregon, in a future climate

To support Levee Ready Columbia’s (LRC’s) effort to re-certify levees along the Columbia and Willamette Rivers and remain accredited, two 2-dimensional hydraulic models, Adaptive Hydraulics and Delft3D-Flexible Mesh, were used to simulate the effects of plausible extreme high water during the 2030 to 2059 period. The Columbia River was simulated from Bonneville Dam, situated at river mile (RM) 145, to the mouth of Columbia River, and the Willamette River was simulated from Willamette Falls, RM 26.2, to the Columbia River confluence. Inputs to the models included light detection and ranging (lidar) and bathymetric mapping data to determine bed level, and boundary conditions in the form of daily inflow hydrographs and water levels in the ocean offshore of the mouth of the Columbia River. Future conditions were based on climate science data developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and others. These conditions included future streamflow and coastal ocean water levels. The hypothetical, extreme but plausible, upstream boundary was based on scaling up the hydrographs from the 1996 flood. Scaling factors were determined by comparing the peak flow rankings determined from flood frequency analyses of historical unregulated periods and 2040s simulated unregulated winter streamflow. The comparison resulted in scaling up the Columbia River hydrograph by 40-percent and scaling up the Willamette River and Lower Columbia River tributaries hydrographs by 20-percent. The downstream ocean boundary was based on a combination of sea-level change, high tide, and storm surge. The models were calibrated for two historical periods: (1) from January 15 to February 28, 1996, and (2) from April 12 to July 12, 1997. The two models compared well to the measured water-surface elevation over the historical periods and had good performance statistics, with root-mean square error ranging from 0.085 to 0.32 meters, Nash-Sutcliffe values greater than 0.96, and bias ranging from -0.03 to 0.28 meters. The simulated peak stage in the Columbia River at Vancouver, Washington, for 1996 was 9.60 and 9.98 meters (31.5 and 32.7 feet) compared to the measured peak of 9.89 meters (32.5 feet). Future peak stage then was simulated with boundary conditions representing extreme but plausible future conditions at the inflow sites and the ocean boundary. The two calibrated models compared well in their simulations of extreme but plausible future conditions. For the 0-meter sea-level change scenario, the simulated peak stage in the Columbia River at Vancouver was 11.15 and 11.39 meters (36.6 and 37.4 feet); and for the 1-meter sea-level change scenario, the simulated peak stage in the Columbia River was 11.25 and 11.54 meters (36.9 and 37.9 feet). The total increase in stage as compared to the 1996 measured peak stage ranged from 1.26 to 1.65 meters (4.13 to 5.40 feet).

Oregon↗
USGS2022

Evaluating temporal and spatial transferability of a tidal inundation model for foraging waterbirds

For ecosystem models to be applicable outside their context of development, temporal and spatial transferability must be demonstrated. This presents a challenge for modeling intertidal ecosystems where spatiotemporal variation arises at multiple scales. Models specializing in tidal dynamics are generally inhibited from having wider ecological applications by coarse spatiotemporal resolution or high user competency. The Tidal Inundation Model of Shallow-water Availability (TiMSA) uniquely simulates tides to empirically derive a time-integrated measure of availability for a shallow-water depth range defined by the user. To evaluate temporal and spatiotemporal transferability, we employed TiMSA at the development site in the Florida Keys and at novel subsites in the Florida Bay (application site) under a different time period (application period). We used foraging little blue herons ( Egretta caerulea ) as the ecological unit with which to constrain the model's “water depth window,” that is, range of water depths to estimate shallow-water availability. At the development site, temporally consistent water depth windows contrasted with interannual variation in shallow-water availability, which revealed short-term changes in Little Blue Heron foraging habitat. At the application site, water depth accuracy varied by subsite and was correlated with spatial error in bathymetric elevation. Although TiMSA parameters were sensitive to environmental temporal variation and uncertainty in spatial data, a spatially explicit water depth window generated reliable estimates of shallow-water conditions over space and time at the development and application sites. By exploring the contributing factors to model error, we provide solutions to reduce uncertainty of TiMSA parameters at potential application sites and recommendations for addressing bathymetric inaccuracy in digital elevation models. Accurately quantifying spatiotemporal changes of shallow water has implications for monitoring habitat conditions for tidally influenced species and projecting future changes to coastal ecosystems in response to anthropogenic stressors and natural disturbances such as sea level rise.

Florida↗