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1,229 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2025

High-precision earthquake catalog for Minto Flats fault zone, central Alaska, reveals complex and conjugate faulting

The Minto Flats fault zone (MFFZ) in central Alaska is a left‐lateral strike‐slip fault system situated between the continental‐scale right‐lateral Denali and Kaltag‐Tintina faults. The MFFZ has the potential to generate magnitude 7 earthquakes, and it hosted a magnitude 6 earthquake in 1995. It has also produced exotic events, such as very‐low‐frequency earthquakes and nucleation signals. We use network‐matched filtering and relative earthquake relocation techniques to derive a detailed catalog of earthquake locations for the MFFZ. The catalog spans from August 2014 to December 2019, a time period including 13 temporary seismic stations in the region. Our results provide the most complete catalog for the MFFZ and include deeper events, clusters of shallow seismicity, and a complex and segmented fault structure not observed in the original regional catalog. We document right‐lateral strike‐slip faulting, conjugate to the main northeast‐striking left‐lateral faults of the MFFZ. Below Nenana basin, the relocated seismicity reveals northwest‐dipping left‐lateral faults, supporting the inference that deep crustal active faulting is associated with recent basin deformation.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin domestic-supply aquifer study unit, 2022—California GAMA Priority Basin Project

The quality of water accessed by domestic wells (here referred to as domestic groundwater resources) in the San Joaquin Valley Kern County subbasin (basin number 5-022.14) was assessed as part of the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP), in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board. Kern County is at the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley in California, and about 30,000 residents are estimated to use privately owned domestic wells for drinking water. Domestic wells typically draw from shallower parts of the aquifer system than public-supply wells and can be more vulnerable to effects from surface activities. Kern County is host to a highly productive agricultural industry, with Bakersfield as the main urban center. The Kern River runs through Bakersfield from the southern Sierra Nevada and intersects the Kern Water Bank, one of the largest groundwater banking operations in California, at the Kern River Intertie. The section of the Kern River running through the Kern Water Bank is dry most years. Kern County also encompasses some of the most productive oil and gas basins in California, with extensive underground and surface disposal of oil-field wastewater. This study was based on data collected from 33 sites sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey for the GAMA-PBP in 2022. To provide context for the water quality assessment, measured concentrations were compared to regulatory and non-regulatory health-based and aesthetic benchmarks. A grid-based method was used to estimate the proportions of the groundwater resources used for domestic-supply wells that have water-quality constituents below (low relative concentration), approaching (moderate relative concentration), or above (high relative concentration) benchmark concentrations. At least one measured constituent with a regulatory benchmark was categorized as having a high relative concentration in 72 percent of the aquifer area used for domestic groundwater resources. Inorganic constituents were detected at high concentrations in 45 percent of the domestic groundwater resources, and the constituents detected above regulatory benchmarks were arsenic, nitrate, and uranium. At least one organic constituent was detected at high concentrations in 41 percent of the domestic groundwater resources, and the constituents exceeding regulatory benchmarks were the fumigants 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP), 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (dibromochloropropane [DBCP]), 1,2-dibromoethane (EDB), and the per-and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) perfluorooctanesulfonate. The disinfection by-product chloroform, the fumigant 1,2-dichloropropane, the herbicides atrazine and hexazinone, and the herbicide degradates 2-chloro-6-ethylamino-4-amino-s-triazine, 2-chloro-4,6-diamino-s-triazine, 4-hydroxychlorothalonil, and metolachlor sulfonic acid were detected in more than 10 percent of domestic groundwater resources, but concentrations did not exceed regulatory benchmarks. Land use, groundwater age (fraction of modern water and mean age), and geochemical environment (oxic or anoxic conditions, pH, alkalinity) were associated with the distribution of high relative concentrations of inorganic and organic constituents. Young, oxygenated water is recharged along the Kern River and adjacent recharge ponds, or as irrigation water in the agricultural areas. High concentrations of nitrate and volatile organic compounds occurred in the oxic water in urban and agricultural areas. The fumigants 1,2,3-TCP, DBCP, and EDB were reported throughout the agricultural areas, whereas chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and PFAS were associated with urban land use. High uranium concentrations were associated with young, modern groundwater in agricultural areas with low pH and high bicarbonate. Total dissolved solids increased with distance from the Kern River, as the contributions of fresh, oxic water decreased. High concentrations of arsenic were present in older anoxic or alkaline groundwater away from areas of recharge. Overall, groundwater age, redox conditions, and the source of recharge as a result of different land uses contribute to large aquifer-scale portions of domestic groundwater resources that exceed health-based benchmarks for nitrate, uranium, and fumigant concentrations.

California↗
USGS2024

Three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Russian River watershed, California

The Russian River watershed is in northern Sonoma County and southern Mendocino County, California, in the northern part of the California Coast Ranges. The Russian River serves as a supply for agricultural irrigation and for municipal, domestic, and commercial uses. Through a cooperative agreement with the California State Water Resources Control Board and Sonoma County Water Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey has completed studies to better understand the hydrogeologic system and develop numerical hydrologic modeling tools to evaluate and aid in managing groundwater resources. This report focuses on the development of a digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Russian River watershed for use in groundwater resource assessment and numerical models. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Russian River watershed portrays the altitude, thickness, and extent of five hydrogeologic units. These five hydrogeologic units include (1) a basement unit, (2) the Sonoma Volcanics, (3) a consolidated sedimentary rock unit, (4) an unconsolidated sediment unit, and (5) channel alluvium. Model input data were compiled from published geologic maps, interpreted well data, and a model of the top of basement derived from gravity data. These data were used to construct surfaces that represent the upper and lower subsurface boundaries of each hydrogeologic unit. Top surfaces were created for the five hydrogeologic units and then stacked in three dimensions to create a solid-volume digital model. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model described in this report and the corresponding data represent the generalized geometry of the subsurface geologic units; the model reproduces the input geologic data with reasonable accuracy and is consistent with previously published subsurface conceptualizations of the region. The model indicates the overall geometry of the basement within the watershed and the spatial extent, altitude, and thickness of the basin-filling units. The hydrogeologic framework model is at a scale and resolution appropriate for use as the foundation for a numerical hydrologic model of the study area.

California↗
USGS2024

Turbidite correlation for paleoseismology

Marine turbidite paleoseismology relies on the assumption of synchronous triggering of turbidity currents by earthquake shaking to infer rupture extent and recurrence. Such inference commonly depends on age dating and correlation of the physical stratigraphy of deposits carried by turbidity currents (i.e., turbidites) across great distances. Along the Cascadia subduction zone, which lies offshore the Pacific Northwest, USA, turbidite facies in core photographs, X-ray computed tomography images, and magnetic susceptibility (MS) data exhibit differences in character over relatively short distances, which implies that not all deposits can be correlated with confidence. Thus, subjective correlation based on expected similarity over great distances and weak age constraints does not independently support paleoseismic models. We present a new method for correlating turbidites along the Cascadia margin that can yield a more objective and repeatable stratigraphic framework to underpin earthquake recurrence. We use dynamic time warping to correlate MS logs and measure correlation coefficients of core pairs to evaluate correlation strength. We then compare these measures to a distribution of correlation coefficients of randomly generated turbidite sequences and find that only a small number of core pairs can be correlated more confidently than randomly stacked turbidites. This methodology promises a more robust correlation strategy for future stratigraphic studies.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Use of precariously balanced rocks to constrain postglacial earthquake magnitudes in New England, United States

We use the age and fragility of 13 precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and southwestern Maine to evaluate the estimated probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and also develop a map of maximum postglacial earthquake magnitudes in the region. The PBRs are erratic boulders left behind by the retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet between 13 and 18 ka, and published ice retreat maps are used to estimate their fragility ages. The fragilities and ages of the rocks appear to be consistent with the NSHM, in that the estimated earthquake magnitudes and resulting ground motions that would topple them are only expected on timescales longer than their fragility ages. This result, on the North American passive margin, contrasts with PBR studies at active plate boundaries, where the PBR constraints imply large reductions to estimated PSH. It may be that the PBRs are not old enough in the eastern United States to reveal the same PSH modeling issues as those revealed in the plate boundary settings. The study provides constraints on maximum magnitudes of postglacial earthquakes across much of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and southwestern Maine, with the constraints limited to the ages of the PBRs.

Maine. Massachusetts, New Hampshire↗
USGS2008

Geology and geochemistry of Jurassic plutonic rocks, Baboquivari Mountains, south-central Arizona

Among the plutons of the Jurassic magmatic arc segment in southern Arizona, northern Sonora, and southern California, two distinctive rock types dominate, occurring together in numerous mountain ranges: porphyritic, titanite-bearing hornblende-biotite granodiorite; and biotite leucogranite. These characteristic rocks are particularly well preserved and well exposed around Kitt Peak, in the Baboquivari Mountains, southern Arizona. The Middle to early Late Jurassic Kitt Peak Plutonic Suite (KPPS) comprises three units: Aguirre Peak Quartz Diorite (APQD;<170 Ma, >=165 Ma, U-Pb), chiefly hornblende mesodiorite; Kitt Peak Granodiorite (KPGD; 165 Ma), hornblende-biotite granodiorite and monzogranite; and Pavo Kug Granite (PKG; 159 Ma), equigranular biotite leucogranite. This range also hosts a fourth, regionally unusual, Jurassic plutonic unit: the Baboquivari Peak Perthite Granite, related to post-arc, Late Jurassic crustal extension. Binary variation diagrams, incompatible element patterns, and REE spectra indicate APQD and KPGD are consanguineous. APQD basaltic mesodiorite evidently approximates the parental magma for the APQD–KPGD series. More evolved rocks of this series evidently formed by combinations of fractional crystallization and mixing with or assimilation of crustal material. PKG is less directly related to APQD and KPGD than these two are to one another.

Arizona, Sonora↗
USGS2026

Temporal and spatial changes in seismic attenuation associated with inferred fluid migration in the 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence

Prior work suggests that high‐frequency seismic attenuation acts as a highly sensitive proxy for crustal permeability and fluid mobility in fractured media. We test the hypothesis that the fault system responsible for the 2016–2017 Amatrice–Visso–Norcia–Capitignano sequence acted as an impermeable seal, compartmentalizing pressurized fluids until dynamic rupture triggered widespread fluid diffusion. By tracking across the sequence the spatiotemporal evolution of the S ‐wave anelastic attenuation parameter, we identify large, positive low‐frequency attenuation anomalies emerging within the hanging wall following the Amatrice mainshock and strictly preceding subsequent large ruptures. Conversely, we observe weaker, negative anomalies in the footwall, anticorrelated in time with those of the hanging wall, revealing a massive asymmetry in fluid redistribution and permeability evolution across the fault system. Furthermore, aftershock migration rates reveal distinct linear alignments in a distance‐reduced time space, allowing us to explicitly track and quantify episodes of lateral and upward fluid migration. These physically consistent patterns suggest that stress‐driven fluid diffusion directly weakens adjacent fault patches, dictating the spatiotemporal migration of seismicity. We conclude that near‐real‐time monitoring of seismic attenuation may help detect fluid redistribution in active fault systems and may provide useful information for time‐dependent seismic hazard assessment.

central Apennines↗
USGS2026

High‐resolution surface deformation and slip distribution observations for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence help constrain the rupture process

Splay, or branch, faults are a common geometric feature of earthquake surface ruptures and may provide constraints on the rupture behavior of an earthquake. The 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık and M w 7.5 Elbistan, Türkiye, earthquakes are examples of ruptures with multiple small splays, and the Pazarcık earthquake nucleated on a splay fault, the Narlı fault, before rupturing bilaterally on the East Anatolian fault (EAF). Here, we present 3‐m‐resolution surface displacement from subpixel correlation of Planet Dove optical images for the entirety of both ruptures with corresponding surface slip distributions. For a 30‐km‐long study region spanning the Narlı‐EAF intersection, we compare surface slip derived from five data sets with different resolutions (on‐the‐ground, WorldView, Planet Dove, Sentinel‐2, and Sentinel‐1) to elucidate complementary information. In addition, we integrate information from the surface expression of faulting with published dynamic rupture simulations and rupture process studies to constrain a rupture evolution for the Pazarcık earthquake that is consistent across data sets. This work highlights the complementary nature of disparate surface slip data sets and the role that high‐resolution surface displacement information, including from fault splays, can play in constraining nonunique rupture models and refining understanding of the earthquake rupture process.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

Distributed faulting of the northern West Napa Fault Zone in Napa Valley, California

Mapped surface ruptures from the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake in the Napa Valley, California, show a 2‐km‐wide zone of distributed faulting in the southern and central West Napa fault zone (WNFZ). In the northern WNFZ at Hendry Winery (HW), however, the mapped 2014 surface ruptures encompass an ∼100‐m‐wide zone, implying significant narrowing of the near‐surface fault zone to the north. We present a tomographic shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠⁠ V S ) model and guided‐wave data that indicate the northern WNFZ is at least 400‐m wide, with multiple near‐surface fault traces. Our V S model shows that the 2014 surface ruptures are underlain by discrete low‐velocity zones (LVZs), and coincident guided‐wave data show that the LVZs carry fault‐zone guided waves. If nearby (<500 m) mapped faults to the east of HW are part of the WNFZ, the entire WNFZ is more than 1 km wide in the northern Napa Valley. WNFZ guided waves travel up to 38% slower than S body waves, and low‐strain guided‐wave shaking is up to five times stronger than the associated body‐wave shaking. Our data suggest that guided waves, traveling along distributed faults, may result in an increased shaking hazard over a 1‐km‐wide area of the northern Napa Valley during future significant earthquakes. In places, the 2014 surface ruptures were difficult to find one year after the earthquake, and paleoseismic trenching showed only weak evidence for faulting, which may not have been identified in trenches if the locations of the 2014 surface ruptures had not been previously mapped ( Prentice et al. , 2015 ). Guided‐wave and V S tomography data, however, show strong evidence for faulting beneath the 2014 surface ruptures and at locations to the east. Although paleoseismic trenching is the gold standard for identifying near‐surface faulting, methods such as peak ground velocities of guided waves may better identify immature near‐surface fault traces.

California↗
USGS2025

False positives in the identification of dynamic earthquake triggering

Dynamic earthquake triggering is commonly identified through the temporal correlation between increased seismicity rates and global earthquakes that are possible triggering events. However, correlation does not imply causation. False positives may occur when unrelated seismicity rate changes coincidently occur at around the time of candidate triggers. We investigate the expected false positive rate in Southern California with global M ≥ 6 earthquakes as candidate triggers. We compute the false positive rate by applying the statistical tests used by DeSalvio and Fan (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 to synthetic earthquake catalogs with no real dynamic triggering. We find a false positive rate of ∼3.5%–8.5% when realistic earthquake clustering is present, consistent with the 95% confidence typically used in seismology. However, when this false positive rate is applied to the tens of thousands of spatial-temporal windows in Southern California tested in DeSalvio and Fan (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 , thousands of false positives are expected. The expected false positive occurrence is large enough to explain the observed apparent triggering following 70% of large global earthquakes (DeSalvio & Fan, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487 ), without requiring any true dynamic triggering. Aside from the known triggering from the nearby El Mayor-Cucapah, Mexico, earthquake, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the reported triggering are indistinguishable from random false positives. This implies that best practice for dynamic triggering studies that depend on temporal correlation is to estimate the false positive rate and investigate whether the observed apparent triggering is distinguishable from the correlations that may occur by chance.

JGR Solid Earth↗
USGS2026

Latest Pleistocene to 19th-century earthquakes on bending-moment reverse faults of the Seattle fault zone, Washington

Fault-related folds and their associated secondary faults play a critical yet often underrecognized role in accommodating strain and generating earthquakes in active fold-and-thrust belts. In the Seattle fault zone (SFZ), Washington, USA, we present new paleoseismic, geomorphic, and geophysical evidence for late Pleistocene and Holocene earthquakes on shallow, south-dipping secondary faults—the Lytle Beach and Vasa Park faults—that lie within the hanging wall of the greater SFZ and are on trend with the primary, blind Blakely Harbor fault. Our data show that these structures have ruptured independently, producing localized uplift and deformation at the surface, with the most recent event (RH2) likely occurring in the early nineteenth century. While a temporal overlap between the late Pleistocene RH1 and VP1 earthquakes raises the possibility of a ≥35 km rupture along the Blakely Harbor fault, structural and temporal evidence instead supports independent rupture on individual faults related to folding. We interpret these faults as bending-moment reverse faults that formed within a synclinal hinge zone of the main fault, reflecting mechanical and kinematic influences of the broader fault system. Combined with prior studies, our findings indicate that faulting related to folding dominates the mode of strain release within the SFZ since the late Pleistocene with more frequent earthquake recurrence (∼350 yr) over the past ∼2500 yr.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Mapping bedrock outcrops in the Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA) using machine learning

Accurate, high-resolution maps of bedrock outcrops can be valuable for applications such as models of land–atmosphere interactions, mineral assessments, ecosystem mapping, and hazard mapping. The increasing availability of high-resolution imagery can be coupled with machine learning techniques to improve regional bedrock outcrop maps. In the United States, the existing 30 m U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD) tends to misestimate extents of barren land, which includes bedrock outcrops. This impacts many calculations beyond bedrock mapping, including soil carbon storage, hydrologic modeling, and erosion susceptibility. Here, we tested if a machine learning (ML) model could more accurately map exposed bedrock than NLCD across the entire Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA). The ML model was trained to identify pixels that are likely bedrock from 0.6 m imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP). First, we labeled exposed bedrock at twenty sites covering more than 83 km 2 (0.13%) of the Sierra Nevada region. These labels were then used to train and test the model, which gave 83% precision and 78% recall, with a 90% overall accuracy of correctly predicting bedrock. We used the trained model to map bedrock outcrops across the entire Sierra Nevada region and compared the ML map with the NLCD map. At the twenty labeled sites, we found the NLCD barren land class, even though it includes more than just bedrock outcrops, accounted for only 41% and 40% of mapped bedrock from our labels and ML predictions, respectively. This substantial difference illustrates that ML bedrock models can have a role in improving land-cover maps, like NLCD, for a range of science applications.

California↗
USGS2026

Geophysical architecture and geochronology of the Neoarchean Mentor anorthosite intrusive complex, northwestern Minnesota: Largest anorthosite complex of the Superior Province?

The Neoarchean Mentor anorthosite intrusive complex (MAIC) lies within the Wawa subprovince in northwestern Minnesota, in a region where the Wawa, Quetico, and Wabigoon subprovinces are juxtaposed in close proximity. Archean rocks are entirely concealed, and interpretations are developed from aeromagnetic, gravity, and borehole samples. The MAIC includes both anorthosite (dense, weakly magnetized) and oxide-rich gabbro (strongly magnetized) lithologies. Anorthosite is coarse-grained to megacrystic, intensely altered, and locally brecciated. Pervasive epidote alteration enhanced the density of the anorthosite via introduction of higher-density mineral assemblages, explaining why the MAIC produces a significant gravity high. Oxide-rich gabbro forms a border phase of the MAIC and has potential for vanadium, chromium, and titanium mineralization, and produces a strong aeromagnetic high. The MAIC is interpreted to extend over an area of 640 km 2 , making it the largest known anorthosite complex of the Superior Province, as measured by preserved areal extent. Modeling indicates the MAIC extends more than 6 km into the subsurface. A new Pb–Pb zircon age of 2737.2 ± 4.5 Ma is interpretated as the crystallization age of anorthosite within the MAIC, showing that the MAIC formed well before the ca. 2690 Ma Shebandowanian orogeny, and raising new questions about correlations with other parts of the Wawa subprovince. A low-density batholith, here informally called the Fertile batholith, is interpreted to intrude the southern part of the MAIC. A new Pb–Pb zircon age of 2701.1 ± 6 Ma is interpreted as the magmatic age of the Fertile batholith.

Minnesota↗
USGS2025

Earthquake stress drop, source spectra from laboratory experiments, and the apparent unsteadiness of frictional slip

Over a range of co-seismic total energy release, high sample rate slip, stress, and slip velocity measurements were made during frictional failure to determine seismic source properties. The near-field measurements were used to estimate stress drops using spectral approaches that are analogous to the standard seismological moment-corner determined Δσ and acceleration amplitude Δσ arms stress drops. Rapid frictional sliding produces slip velocity amplitude spectra that vary with frequency -1 so long as the energy dissipated by friction approaches the total energy release. Under these conditions Δσ and Δσ arms are similar in size. Since these are nearly direct measurements of fault slip velocity and because they produce flat acceleration spectra between the corner and an apparent fmax, friction in these experiments seems to produce dynamic acceleration and deceleration at all resolved frequencies. The physical origin of this unsteady motion is not known exactly but likely reflects rapid dynamic variations in fault strength or applied stress. On the other hand, when the total energy stored prior to failure is artificially made somewhat larger relative to that which can be dissipated by friction the velocity spectra vary with frequency -2 immediately below the corner. At these conditions Δσ and Δσ arms diverge. The excess stored energy is preferentially partitioned into radiated energy upon failure. Collectively the experiments imply that to produce unsteady, white noise accelerations that are observed for natural earthquakes, requires that at least 95% of the energy released does not escape the source region to be radiated to the far-field.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

Ground motions from finite faults with unknown geometry

Earthquake emergency response and loss modeling require accurate models of ground‐motion intensity metrics (IMs), such as those produced by ShakeMap. In the critical minutes and hours after an earthquake, however, knowledge of the earthquake source geometry limits the accuracy of these models, especially in areas where seismic instrumentation is insufficient to constrain the shaking intensity pattern. Previous attempts to overcome this limitation have centered on computing the mean distance metrics from a suite of assumed source geometries. That approach is inadequate with modern ground‐motion models (GMMs) because they typically include terms for the hanging wall effect, depth to top of rupture, and other nonlinear terms. Such approaches also propagate the distance uncertainty through the GMMs and may not properly allocate the additional uncertainty into the between‐ and within‐event components. Here we present Finite‐Fault SIMulation with Mixed Effects Regression (FFSIMMER), a method to address these limitations by computing IM distributions from a suite of rupture realizations that fully accounts for all geometry‐related GMM terms and allows for the separation of the between‐ and within‐event components of the total uncertainty. The accuracy of this method is limited by the available constraints on the source parameters. To address this, FFSIMMER can incorporate constraints based on knowledge of the source, such as the approximate strike and dip based on knowledge of the plate tectonics and focal mechanism of the earthquake. We demonstrate the improvement in accuracy that can be achieved with the 2025 M 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake by incorporating constraints on the range of plausible source parameters.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

Seismic velocity changes from repetitive seismicity at Mauna Loa prior to and during its 2022 eruption

Mauna Loa’s short-lived eruption from late November to early December 2022 marked the culmination of nearly a decade of elevated seismic activity and geodetic inflation. The volcano has been monitored by a network of permanent, short period and broadband seismometers. I used the continuous waveform data from that network starting in 2012 to generate a catalog of seismicity that enhances the US Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory’s public seismic catalog with four times the number of earthquakes, which were then grouped by waveform similarity. Analysis of subtle delays in the timing of arrivals of scattered waves between pairs of earthquakes in this catalog yields a history of small changes in the shallow seismic velocity structure of the volcano. Seismic velocities have been shown at other volcanoes to change during unrest and eruption. My results show a decrease in seismic velocity centered on the summit beginning in September 2022, corresponding to the onset of a vigorous precursory swarm of seismic activity and shallow inflation. During the eruption itself, I observe large changes due likely to dike opening along the northeast rift zone and deflation of the summit reservoir. However, seismic velocity changes associated with non-volcanic sources such as ground shaking from large earthquakes and meteorological influences at seasonal and diurnal time scales are also observed, and these dominate the velocity changes prior to the eruption. Proper accounting of these effects will be a requirement for use in real-time monitoring, and this work serves as a starting point in that endeavor for Mauna Loa.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Generalized Bancroft algorithm for locating earthquakes with P- and S-wave arrival times

Because of similarities between locating an earthquake with seismic stations and locating a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver from satellites, the Bancroft algorithm developed for GPS processing can be used to locate earthquakes. Such an approach to earthquake location differs from the conventional method of choosing an initial or trial solution and then iteratively improving the solution until convergence. The Bancroft algorithm has the advantage of being a direct, noniterative solution but with the disadvantage of only being able to accommodate a homogeneous velocity model. An additional limitation of the standard Bancroft algorithm is that it considers arrival times in a medium with a single propagation velocity. This poses no problem for GPS processing because electromagnetic waves travel at the speed of light; however, for seismic waves it means the algorithm can be applied to collections of either P ‐ or S ‐wave arrival times. Here, I show how the Bancroft algorithm can be generalized to handle both P ‐ and S ‐wave arrival‐time measurements simultaneously. I also show how to accommodate depth‐varying P ‐ and S ‐wave velocity models. I apply the generalized Bancroft algorithm to microearthquakes beneath Tanaga Volcano in Alaska and compare standard locations from the widely used HYPOINVERSE location code to Bancroft locations and to the output of HYPOINVERSE when setting the trial location to the Bancroft location. I find the Bancroft locations outperform the results from the other methods for shallow earthquakes near sea level, where a quantity known as the geometric dilution of precision is large and linearized approaches such as HYPOINVERSE are expected to struggle.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Projecting stream water quality using Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS): An example with drought conditions in the Delaware River Basin

Future water availability depends on understanding the responses of constituent concentrations to hydrologic change. Projecting future water quality remains a methodological challenge, particularly when using discrete observations with limited temporal resolution. This study introduces Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season for Projection (WRTDS-P), a novel, computationally efficient method that enables the projection of daily stream water quality under varying hydrologic conditions using commonly available discrete monitoring data. WRTDS-P model performance was validated using 39 sites in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and four key constituents: specific conductance (SC), nitrate (NO 3 − ), magnesium (Mg 2+ ) and calcium (Ca 2+ ). Projections were tested against holdout data from the final 1 to 5 years of each time series, demonstrating robust predictive capability, with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.67 for SC, 0.56 for NO 3 − , 0.65 for Ca 2+ , and 0.79 for Mg 2+ . Model uncertainty was correlated with indicators of hydrologic or geochemical mass-sinks, such as groundwater storage and adsorption in wetland soils. Drought scenario analyses for SC used ranges of reduced discharge including flows from the 1965 drought of record. Scenarios predicted widespread increases of SC, especially in southern DRB streams where baseline SC levels are already elevated. Fractional increases of SC were more uniformly distributed, indicating potential risk to sensitive ecosystems. Notably, drought-induced SC increases were positively correlated with interannual SC trends, indicating that hydrologic extremes could exacerbate ongoing salinization. This work provides a transferable and interpretable framework for projecting future water quality and assessing hydrologic risk to water resources and aquatic ecosystems.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗