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USGS2017

The Snowmastodon Project

Studies of terrestrial biotic and environmental dynamics of the last interglacial period, Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5, provide insight into the effects of long-term climate change on Pleistocene ecosystems. In North America, however, there are relatively few fossil sites that definitively date to MIS 5. Even fewer contain multiple ecosystem components (vertebrates, invertebrates, plants) that have been studied in detail, and none are located at high elevation. Thus, our view of North American ecosystems during MIS 5 is, at best, an incomplete composite view, and alpine ecosystems are entirely undocumented. The Ziegler Reservoir fossil site allows us to begin filling these gaps. Discovered on October 14, 2010 by a construction crew while enlarging a small reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA), the site is situated high in the Rocky Mountains at an elevation of ~ 2705 m. Initial excavations exposed a series of stacked fossil ecosystems, including abundant faunal and floral components. Subsequent work revealed an exceptionally diverse biota composed of nearly 6000 large bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and big horn sheep. This collection is complemented by more than 200 bones from at least 40 species of small animals including otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds, and more than 20,000 salamander bones. Geomorphic evidence and multiple dating techniques show that the small, ridge-top basin containing the site was formed by a lateral lobe of a valley glacier that filled, and ultimately overtopped, the Snowmass Creek drainage during the Bull Lake glaciation (MIS 6). When the glacier receded, a lake that occupied the basin began to fill slowly with what is hypothesized to be eolian sediment and occasional input from slope failures of the impounding moraine. As sedimentation continued, the lake transformed first into a shallow pond, then a marsh, and later an alpine meadow. In all, the Ziegler Reservoir sedimentary record spans the time encompassed by the end of MIS 6, all of MIS 5 and MIS 4, and the earliest part of MIS 3. MIS 5e, which is considered to be the peak warmth of the last interglacial period, is especially well represented. Preservation of organic material at the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site is exceptional. Even after more than 100,000 years of burial, sedge and willow leaves were still green, mollusks and gastropods showed color, beetle parts remained iridescent, fossil conifer cones were intact, and an entire beach of 20-meter-long driftwood logs was found intact. The exquisite preservation allowed for detailed analysis of pollen, plant macrofossils, conifer cones, and fossil wood, as well as insects, chironomids, mollusks, ostracodes, and other invertebrates — all in addition to the spectacular faunal remains. This special volume of Quaternary Research represents a comprehensive scientific report of “The Snowmastodon Project,” as the investigations at the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site came to be known. Summarizing the work of scientists from more than 20 institutions, the volume details the environments in which the animals lived, provides insight into how they died, and forms the foundation of our understanding of alpine ecosystem dynamics during the last interglacial period in the Rocky Mountains.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2000

Geochemical and mineralogical evidence from eolian sediments for northwesterly mid-Holocene paleowinds, central Kansas, USA

A prominent (4500 km2) dune field in the Great Plains is the Great Bend Sand Prairie of south-central Kansas. Dunes here overlie late Quaternary alluvium and were reactivated extensively in the late Holocene. Geomorphic and soil evidence suggests that the most likely eolian sand source is the Arkansas River valley to the northwest. Nevertheless, orientations of stabilized dunes indicate that the most recent dune-forming winds came from the south or southwest, in agreement with modern wind data. Mineralogy and trace element concentrations in eolian sands of the Great Bend Sand Prairie are similar to those to the Arkansas River, which permits the Arkansas River as a sediment source. Ca and Sr abundances, which reflect small amounts of carbonate minerals, are higher in Arkansas River sand compared to eolian sands and show a systematic depletion away from the Arkansas River to the southeast. These trends are likely due to carbonate mineral depletion downwind from abrasion and size reduction. Thus, paleowinds probably were northwesterly during initial deposition. Northwesterly winds occur today when dry, Pacific-derived air is dominant. We hypothesize that the residence time of this air mass was much greater while dunes initially formed, possibly during a warmer and drier mid-Holocene period.

Quaternary International↗

USGS2001

Sea-level and environmental changes since the last interglacial in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia: an overview

The Gulf of Carpentaria is an epicontinental sea (maximum depth 70 m) between Australia and New Guinea, bordered to the east by Torres Strait (currently 12 m deep) and to the west by the Arafura Sill (53 m below present sea level). Throughout the Quaternary, during times of low sea-level, the Gulf was separated from the open waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, forming Lake Carpentaria, an isolation basin, perched above contemporaneous sea-level with outlet channels to the Arafura Sea. A preliminary interpretation is presented of the palaeoenvironments recorded in six sediment cores collected by the IMAGES program in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The longest core (approx. 15 m) spans the past 130 ka and includes a record of sea-level/lake-level changes, with particular complexity between 80 and 40 ka when sea-level repeatedly breached and withdrew from Gulf/Lake Carpentaria. Evidence from biotic remains (foraminifers, ostracods, pollen), sedimentology and geochemistry clearly identifies a final marine transgression at about 9.7 ka (radiocarbon years). Before this transgression, Lake Carpentaria was surrounded by grassland, was near full, and may have had a surface area approaching 600 km×300 km and a depth of about 15 m. The earlier rise in sea-level which accompanied the Marine Isotopic Stage 6/5 transgression at about 130 ka is constrained by sedimentological and biotic evidence and dated by optical- and thermoluminescence and amino acid racemisation methods.

Gulf Of Carpentaria↗

USGS1998

Paleopedology plus TL, 10Be, and14C dating as tools in stratigraphic and paleoclimatic investigations, Mississippi River Valley, U.S.A.

Thick ( ??? 35 m) loess deposits are present on ridges and high bluffs in the northern-half of the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV), U.S.A. Detailed descriptions of the loess sections and pedologic, physiochemical, and mineralogic analyses and TL, 14C, and 10Be age determinations, allow preliminary paleoclimatic reconstructions for the late Quaternary of central North America. No age data are available for the oldest (Fifth) loess. 10Be and TL age data suggest a 250-200 ka age for the Fourth or Crowleys Ridge(?) Loess, and indicate that the Loveland or Third Loess is time equivalent to oxygen isotope stage 6, ??? 190-120 ka. A weakly developed paleosol is present in the basal-half of the Loveland. The Sangamon Geosol is present in the upper 5 m and represents all of oxygen isotope stage 5, ??? 130-60 ka. It formed in a climate as warm as, but drier and (or) with greater variation in precipitation, than the present. The Roxana Silt (second loess) was deposited during oxygen isotope stages 4 and 3, ??? 65-26 ka. The early Wisconsinan interglacial-glacial transition, represented by the Sangamon Geosol and the unnamed paleosol in the basal Roxana Silt, was slow. The paleoclimate during the 35 k yr of Roxana deposition was cool to cold and wet. Age and pedologic data indicate that deposition of the Peoria Loess (the youngest) began around 25 ka when the area's climate changed abruptly from cool or cold and wet to cold and dry, with periods of sustained high winds.

Quaternary International↗

USGS2004

Limits of mountain and continental glaciations east of the Continental Divide in northern Montana and north-western North Dakota, U.S.A.

This chapter provides an overview of the limits of glaciations and glacial history in, and east and south-east of, Glacier National Park, Montana, and on the Northern Plains further east in Montana and north-western North Dakota. The term “Laurentide glacier” was applied to a continental ice sheet east of the Rocky Mountains in North America. It describes Laurentide Ice Sheet as any Quaternary continental ice sheet east of the Rocky Mountains in the United States and Canada. Laurentide till refers to till deposited by a Laurentide Ice Sheet. A Laurentide continental ice sheet is distinguished from a Cordilleran continental ice sheet in the Cordilleran region in parts of Washington, Idaho, and Montana in the United States and in adjacent Canada. Clague indicated that Cordilleran Ice Sheets formed several times during the Pleistocene. The chapter also reviews that the base for the digital map is simplified. Selected hydrographic features, selected towns and cities, selected physiographic features, and a grid of 1° × 2° topographic quadrangles are included to aid the reader in location of the glacial limits and other features depicted here on other maps at different scales.

Montana, North Dakota↗

USGS2018

Desert wetlands record hydrologic variability within the Younger Dryas chronozone, Mojave Desert, USA

One of the enduring questions in the field of paleohydrology is how quickly desert wetland ecosystems responded to past episodes of abrupt climate change. Recent investigations in the Las Vegas Valley of southern Nevada have revealed that wetlands expanded and contracted on millennial and sub-millennial timescales in response to changes in climate during the late Quaternary. Here, we evaluate geologic evidence from multiple localities in the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin that suggests the response of wetland systems to climate change is even faster, occurring at centennial, and possibly decadal, timescales. Paleowetland deposits at Dove Springs Wash, Mesquite Springs, and Little Dixie Wash, California, contain evidence of multiple wet and dry cycles in the form of organic-rich black mats, representing periods of past groundwater discharge and wet conditions, interbedded with colluvial, alluvial, and aeolian sediments, each representing dry conditions. Many of these wet-dry cycles date to within the Younger Dryas (YD) chronozone (12.9–11.7 ka), marking the first time intra -YD hydrologic variability has been documented in paleowetland deposits. Our results illustrate that desert wetland ecosystems are exceptionally sensitive to climate change and respond to climatic perturbations on timescales that are relevant to human society.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

USGS2018

Overview of the oxygen isotope systematics of land snails from North America

Continental paleoclimate proxies with near-global coverage are rare. Land snail δ 18 O is one of the few proxies abundant in Quaternary sediments ranging from the tropics to the high Arctic tundra. However, its application in paleoclimatology remains difficult, attributable in part to limitations in published calibration studies. Here we present shell δ 18 O of modern small (<10 mm) snails across North America, from Florida (30°N) to Manitoba (58°N), to examine the main climatic controls on shell δ 18 O at a coarse scale. This transect is augmented by published δ 18 O values, which expand our coverage from Jamaica (18°N) to Alaska (64°N). Results indicate that shell δ 18 O primarily tracks the average annual precipitation δ 18 O. Shell δ 18 O increases 0.5–0.7‰ for every 1‰ increase in precipitation δ 18 O, and 0.3–0.7‰ for every 1°C increase in temperature. These relationships hold true when all taxa are included regardless of body size (ranging from ~1.6 to ~58 mm), ecology (herbivores, omnivores, and carnivores), or behavior (variable seasonal active periods and mobility habits). Future isotopic investigations should include calibration studies in tropical and high-latitude settings, arid environments, and along altitudinal gradients to test if the near linear relationship between shell and meteoric precipitation δ 18 O observed on a continental scale remains significant.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2022

Assessing reproducibility in sedimentary macroscopic charcoal count data

Current understanding of global late Quaternary fire history is largely drawn from sedimentary charcoal data. Since publication, CharAnalysis increasingly has been relied upon as a robust method for analyzing these data. However, several underlying assumptions of the algorithm have not been tested. This study uses replicated charcoal count data to examine the assumption of Poisson distribution and reproducibility of peak detection. Results show <10% of the replicate counts are Poisson distributed, a maximum peak replication rate of 60%, and, for >90% of the data, intra-level count differences were larger than the threshold used to identify significance in inter-level differences. A pronounced “edge effect” was observed at the beginning and end of the records, cautioning against validation of results based on sections corresponding to the historical period. The proximal cause for low reproducibility is likely a lack of spatial randomness of charcoal particles at the scale of a core diameter. Until and unless decomposition methods can be developed that accommodate the observed limitations inherent in particle count data, best practices for interpreting charcoal records may be to rely on qualitative interpretations based on smoothed influx values and minimum particle count values in the hundreds.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2023

The role of lithology and climate on bedrock river incision and terrace development along the Buffalo National River, Arkansas

The Buffalo National River in northwest Arkansas preserves an extensive Quaternary record of fluvial bedrock incision and aggradation across lithologies of variable resistance. In this work, we apply optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to strath and fill terraces along the Buffalo River to elucidate the role of lithology and climate on the development of the two youngest terrace units (Qtm and Qty). Our OSL ages suggest a minimum strath planation age of ~250 ka for the Qtm terraces followed by a ~200 ka record of aggradation. Qtm incision likely occurred near the LGM, prior to the onset of Qty fill terrace aggradation ~14 ka. Our terrace ages are broadly consistent with other regional fluvial terrace records, and comparison with available paleoclimatic archives suggests that terrace aggradation and incision occurred during drier and wetter hydrological conditions, respectively. Vertical bedrock incision rates were also calculated using OSL-derived estimates of Qtm strath planation and displayed statistically significant spatial variability with bedrock lithology, ranging from 0.04 mm/yr in the higher resistance reaches and 0.02 mm/yr in the lower resistance reaches. In combination with observations of valley width and terrace distribution, these results suggest that vertical processes outpace lateral ones in lithologic reaches with higher resistance.

Arkansas↗

USGS2026

A 40,000-year packrat midden series from Cataviña, central Baja California, Mexico

Thirty packrat ( Neotoma spp.) middens collected from boulder fields near Cataviña, Baja California, Mexico, at 640–680 m elevation provide the first long chronology of macrofossils and pollen spanning the late Quaternary in the Central Desert of Baja California. Midden plant macrofossil and pollen assemblages document a rich chaparral/woodland assemblage during the last glacial and early Holocene dominated by Parry pinyon ( Pinus quadrifolia ) and California juniper ( Juniperus californica ) until 11,630 cal yr BP. This indicates chaparral/woodland had a much more extensive distribution in what are now desert elevations in northern and central Baja California. In contrast to late glacial and early Holocene midden records from northeastern Baja, the Cataviña middens of the same age lack plants adapted to warm season precipitation, suggesting that decreased temperatures and evapotranspiration during the growing season and enhanced winter precipitation, with little contribution from summer rains, supported the lowering of chaparral/woodland species distributions in central Baja California. Cataviña middens also record endemic desert plant taxa mixed in with chaparral/woodland species during the Pleistocene, persisting throughout the Holocene, followed by the quick arrival of other desert species after ∼11,000 cal yr BP. Baja California remains a high-potential yet poorly sampled area for packrat midden research in North America.

Baja California↗

USGS1986

Pre-Wisconsin glacial stratigraphy of the central plains region in Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri

Recent investigations have documented the presence of several tills and interglacial paleosols that were not recognized in the simple Kansan-Aftonian-Nebraskan stratigraphic sequence. Also, the single 'Pearlette ash' recognized by early workers now is known to be three different Pearlette family ash beds of greatly contrasting ages. The complexity of the stratigraphy, as it is currently understood, and the miscorrelations of early work necessitate abandonment of the archaic terms Kansan, Aftonian, and Nebraskan in stratigraphic terminology. Continued use of those terms will only promote confusion of stratigraphic nomenclature and erroneous correlations of stratigraphic units. The limited chronometric control available within the early and middle Pleistocene stratigraphic sequence is provided directly by dating or by correlation of buried soils and volcanic ash beds and it is provided inferentially by interpretation of magnetic polarity data. These controls provide, at best, a general time framework to begin a new synthesis of the Quaternary history of the region. New methods of dating are needed to facilitate long-distance correlation of early and middle Pleistocene deposits. ?? 1986.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2014

Cogenetic late Pleistocene rhyolite and cumulate diorites from Augustine Volcano revealed by SIMS 238U-230Th dating of zircon, and implications for silicic magma generation by extraction from mush

Augustine Volcano, a frequently active andesitic island stratocone, erupted a late Pleistocene rhyolite pumice fall that is temporally linked through zircon geochronology to cumulate dioritic blocks brought to the surface in Augustine's 2006 eruption. Zircon from the rhyolite yield a 238 U- 230 Th age of ∼25 ka for their unpolished rims, and their interiors yield a bimodal age populations at ∼26 ka and a minority at ∼41 ka. Zircon from dioritic blocks, ripped from Augustine's shallow magmatic plumbing system and ejected during the 2006 eruption, have interiors defining a ∼26 ka age population that is indistinguishable from that for the rhyolite; unpolished rims on the dioritic zircon are dominantly younger (≤12 ka) indicating subsequent crystallization. Zircon from rhyolite and diorite overlap in U, Hf, Ti, and REE concentrations although diorites also contain a second population of high-U, high temperature grains. Andesites that brought dioritic blocks to the surface in 2006 contain zircon with young (≤9 ka) rims and a scattering of older ages, but few zircon that crystallized during the 26 ka interval. Both the Pleistocene-age rhyolite and the 2006 dioritic inclusions plot along a whole-rock compositional trend distinct from mid-Holocene–present andesites and dacites, and the diorites, rhyolite, and two early Holocene dacites define linear unmixing trends often oblique to the main andesite array and consistent with melt (rhyolite) extraction from a mush (dacites), leaving behind a cumulate amphibole-bearing residue (diorites). Rare zircon antecrysts up to ∼300 ka from all rock types indicate that a Quaternary center has been present longer than preserved surficial deposits.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Age of the Lava Creek supereruption and magma chamber assembly at Yellowstone based on 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and U-Pb dating of sanidine and zircon crystals

The last supereruption from the Yellowstone Plateau formed Yellowstone caldera and ejected the >1000 km 3 of rhyolite that composes the Lava Creek Tuff. Tephra from the Lava Creek eruption is a key Quaternary chronostratigraphic marker, in particular for dating the deposition of mid Pleistocene glacial and pluvial deposits in western North America. To resolve the timing of eruption and crystallization history for the Lava Creek magma, we performed (1) 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dating of single sanidine crystals to delimit eruption age and (2) ion microprobe U-Pb and trace-element analyses of the crystal faces and interiors of single zircons to date the interval of zircon crystallization and characterize magmatic evolution. Sanidines from the two informal members composing Lava Creek Tuff yield a preferred 40 Ar/ 39 Ar isochron date of 631.3 ± 4.3 ka. Crystal faces on zircons from both members yield a weighted mean 206 Pb/ 238 U date of 626.5 ± 5.8 ka, and have trace element concentrations that vary with the eruptive stratigraphy. Zircon interiors yield a mean 206 Pb/ 238 U date of 659.8 ± 5.5 ka, and reveal reverse and/or oscillatory zoning of trace element concentrations, with many crystals containing high U concentration cores that likely grew from highly evolved melt. The occurrence of distal Lava Creek tephra in stratigraphic sequences marking the Marine Isotope Stage 16–15 transition supports the apparent eruption age of &sim;631 ka. The combined results reveal that Lava Creek zircons record episodic heating, renewed crystallization, and an overall up-temperature evolution for Yellowstone's subvolcanic reservoir in the 10 3 −10 4 year interval before eruption.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Late Pleistocene ages for the most recent volcanism and glacial-pluvial deposits at Big Pine volcanic field, California, USA, from cosmogenic 36 Cl dating

The Big Pine volcanic field is one of several Quaternary volcanic fields that poses a potential volcanic hazard along the tectonically active Owens Valley of east-central California, and whose lavas are interbedded with deposits from Pleistocene glaciations in the Sierra Nevada Range. Previous geochronology indicates an &sim;1.2 Ma history of volcanism, but the eruption ages and distribution of volcanic products associated with the most-recent eruptions have been poorly resolved. To delimit the timing and products of the youngest volcanism, we combine field mapping and cosmogenic 36 Cl dating of basaltic lava flows in the area where lavas with youthful morphology and well-preserved flow structures are concentrated. Field mapping and petrology reveal approximately 15 vents and 6 principal flow units with variable geochemical composition and mineralogy. Cosmogenic 36 Cl exposure ages for lava flow units from the top, middle, and bottom of the volcanic stratigraphy indicate eruptions at &sim;17, 27, and 40 ka, revealing several different and previously unrecognized episodes of late Pleistocene volcanism. Olivine to plagioclase-pyroxene phyric basalt erupted from several vents during the most recent episode of volcanism at &sim;17 ka, and produced a lava flow field covering &sim;35 km 2 . The late Pleistocene 36 Cl exposure ages indicate that moraine and pluvial shoreline deposits that overlie or modify the youngest Big Pine lavas reflect Tioga stage glaciation in the Sierra Nevada and the shore of paleo-Owens Lake during the last glacial cycle.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2016

A possible transoceanic tsunami directed toward the U.S. west coast from the Semidi segment, Alaska convergent margin

The Semidi segment of the Alaska convergent margin appears capable of generating a giant tsunami like the one produced along the nearby Unimak segment in 1946. Reprocessed legacy seismic reflection data and a compilation of multibeam bathymetric surveys reveal structures that could generate such a tsunami. A 200 km long ridge or escarpment with crests >1 km high is the surface expression of an active out-of-sequence fault zone, recently referred to as a splay fault. Such faults are potentially tsunamigenic. This type of fault zone separates the relatively rigid rock of the margin framework from the anelastic accreted sediment prism. Seafloor relief of the ridge exceeds that of similar age accretionary prism ridges indicating preferential slip along the splay fault zone. The greater slip may derive from Quaternary subduction of the Patton Murray hot spot ridge that extends 200 km toward the east across the north Pacific. Estimates of tsunami repeat times from paleotsunami studies indicate that the Semidi segment could be near the end of its current inter-seismic cycle. GPS records from Chirikof Island at the shelf edge indicate 90% locking of plate interface faults. An earthquake in the shallow Semidi subduction zone could generate a tsunami that will inundate the US west coast more than the 1946 and 1964 earthquakes because the Semidi continental slope azimuth directs a tsunami southeastward.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2016

Tearing the terroir: Details and implications of surface rupture and deformation from the 24 August 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake, California

The M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake of 24 August 2014 caused slip on several active fault strands within the West Napa Fault Zone (WNFZ). Field mapping identified 12.5 km of surface rupture. These field observations, near-field geodesy and space geodesy, together provide evidence for more than ~30 km of surface deformation with a relatively complex distribution across a number of subparallel lineaments. Along a ~7 km section north of the epicenter, the surface rupture is confined to a single trace that cuts alluvial deposits, reoccupying a low-slope scarp. The rupture continued northward onto at least four other traces through subparallel ridges and valleys. Postseismic slip exceeded coseismic slip along much of the southern part of the main rupture trace with total slip 1 year postevent approaching 0.5 m at locations where only a few centimeters were measured the day of the earthquake. Analysis of airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar data provides slip distributions along fault traces, indicates connectivity and extent of secondary traces, and confirms that postseismic slip only occurred on the main trace of the fault, perhaps indicating secondary structures ruptured as coseismic triggered slip. Previous mapping identified the WNFZ as a zone of distributed faulting, and this was generally borne out by the complex 2014 rupture pattern. Implications for hazard analysis in similar settings include the need to consider the possibility of complex surface rupture in areas of complex topography, especially where multiple potentially Quaternary-active fault strands can be mapped.

California↗

USGS2024

Updating the crustal fault model for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model for Alaska

We present the crustal fault model for Alaska, based on geologic observations, as a primary input for the 2023 revision of the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model. We update the 2013 Alaska Quaternary fault and fold database to produce a simplified model of 105 fault sections and four fault zone polygons with basic geologic parameters including slip sense and rate. Significant updates include the following: (1) a slip rate of ∼53 mm/year on the Queen Charlotte Fault indicating it accommodates all of the plate boundary motion; (2) quantified slip rates on megathrust splay faults in the southern Prince William Sound region and near Kodiak Island; (3) improved details of structures in the Chugach-St. Elias orogen; (4) revision of the Castle Mountain Fault from right-lateral slip to a predominantly reverse fault; (5) improved Interior Alaska tectonic models that clarify relationships between the Denali, Totschunda, and thrust faults on both sides of the Alaska Range; (6) identified large earthquake sources in the eastern Brooks Range; and (7) omission of the Chatham Strait section of the Denali Fault. The fault model underscores that the collision of the Yakutat microplate is the dominant driver of active crustal faulting in most of Alaska.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2026

Simulating past and future refugia for temperate trees in northern Italy

During the Quaternary, trees responded to the climatic changes of glacial–interglacial cycles with large-scale range shifts. Over cold glacials, temperate tree species contracted their ranges and survived in areas known as refugia. Several studies point to the Euganean Hills (Colli Euganei), in Veneto, northern Italy, as one of the northernmost European refugia of temperate tree species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca 23 000–19 000 calibrated years BP). Using LandClim, a spatially explicit, dynamic forest landscape model, we demonstrate that climate conditions during the LGM likely allowed temperate tree species to persist in the Euganean Hills. The identified refugial locations lie at intermediate to high elevations and in sheltered valleys within the hilly complex. Therefore, the combined palaeoecological and modelling evidence suggests that today's temperate forests of the Euganean Hills have a full glacial legacy. Simulations under future climate conditions suggest a collapse of the sub-mediterranean and oro-mediterranean deciduous forests that are prevalent today and the expansion of thermo-mediterranean evergreen forests (with e.g. Quercus ilex , Q. suber , Olea europaea and Pinus sp.). Specifically, the extrazonal population of oro-mediterranean Fagus sylvatica , which is unique to the Po Plain and likely persisted locally through several glacial–interglacial cycles, is predicted to sharply decline and face local extinction, underscoring a conservation hazard.

Ecography↗