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1,061 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Designing occupancy studies when false-positive detections occur

1.Recently, estimators have been developed to estimate occupancy probabilities when false-positive detections occur during presence-absence surveys. Some of these estimators combine different types of survey data to improve estimates of occupancy. With these estimators, there is a tradeoff between the number of sample units surveyed, and the number and type of surveys at each sample unit. Guidance on efficient design of studies when false positives occur is unavailable. 2.For a range of scenarios, I identified survey designs that minimized the mean square error of the estimate of occupancy. I considered an approach that uses one survey method and two observation states and an approach that uses two survey methods. For each approach, I used numerical methods to identify optimal survey designs when model assumptions were met and parameter values were correctly anticipated, when parameter values were not correctly anticipated, and when the assumption of no unmodelled detection heterogeneity was violated. 3.Under the approach with two observation states, false positive detections increased the number of recommended surveys, relative to standard occupancy models. If parameter values could not be anticipated, pessimism about detection probabilities avoided poor designs. Detection heterogeneity could require more or fewer repeat surveys, depending on parameter values. If model assumptions were met, the approach with two survey methods was inefficient. However, with poor anticipation of parameter values, with detection heterogeneity, or with removal sampling schemes, combining two survey methods could improve estimates of occupancy. 4.Ignoring false positives can yield biased parameter estimates, yet false positives greatly complicate the design of occupancy studies. Specific guidance for major types of false-positive occupancy models, and for two assumption violations common in field data, can conserve survey resources. This guidance can be used to design efficient monitoring programs and studies of species occurrence, species distribution, or habitat selection, when false positives occur during surveys.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Estimating occupancy from autonomous recording unit data in the presence of misclassifications and detection heterogeneity

1. Autonomous Recording Units (ARUs) are now widely used to survey communities of species. These surveys generate spatially and temporally replicated counts of unmarked animals, but such data typically include false negatives and misclassified detections, both of which may vary across sites in proportion to abundance. These data challenges can bias estimates of occupancy, and the typical approach of verifying individual detections is expensive. 2. We developed a Bayesian implementation of a two-species, false-positive N-mixture model for estimating occupancy from ARU data or other counts of unmarked animals that does not require manual verification. The model accounts for species misclassification and abundance-induced detection heterogeneity, as well as false negatives. To evaluate this model, we simulated 200 data sets for each of 29 scenarios, including scenarios in which misclassifications outnumbered correct classifications for rare species. We also applied the model to acoustic surveys of bats conducted on Fort Carson Army Post and Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, Colorado, USA. 3. In the simulation study, bias, coverage, and root mean square error for occupancy estimates obtained from the two-species false-positive N-mixture model were superior to metrics obtained from two competing two-species false-positive occupancy models. Across 29 scenarios, absolute bias was consistently low (range: -0.03–0.07), while coverage averaged 93% (range: 74%–98%). For alternative occupancy models, absolute bias was often high (range: -0.36–0.39), and coverage averaged from 47%–65%. Although our model included an abundance parameter, abundance estimates were not reliable. For two species of Myotis bats, we estimated that 1%–5% of field-recorded detections were misclassified. Estimated occupancy (0.91 and 0.76) was lower than naïve estimates (1.00 and 0.94). Competing occupancy models implausibly estimated local occupancy of 0.00 at sites with numerous detections. 4. Our two-species, false-positive N-mixture model is significant because it accounts for detection heterogeneity and improves occupancy estimates without expensive manual verification of detections. Our field application indicated that misclassifications were not common, yet affected occupancy inferences. Given that ARUs are increasingly used to survey a broad range of taxa, such an occupancy model could be widely useful.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2012

Shallow groundwater quality and geochemistry in the Fayetteville Shale gas-production area, north-central Arkansas, 2011

The Mississippian Fayetteville Shale serves as an unconventional gas reservoir across north-central Arkansas, ranging in thickness from approximately 50 to 550 feet and varying in depth from approximately 1,500 to 6,500 feet below the ground surface. Primary permeability in the Fayetteville Shale is severely limited, and successful extraction of the gas reservoir is the result of advances in horizontal drilling techniques and hydraulic fracturing to enhance and develop secondary fracture porosity and permeability. Drilling and production of gas wells began in 2004, with a steady increase in production thereafter. As of April 2012, approximately 4,000 producing wells had been completed in the Fayetteville Shale. In Van Buren and Faulkner Counties, 127 domestic water wells were sampled and analyzed for major ions and trace metals, with a subset of the samples analyzed for methane and carbon isotopes to describe general water quality and geochemistry and to investigate the potential effects of gas-production activities on shallow groundwater in the study area. Water-quality analyses from this study were compared to historical (pregas development) shallow groundwater quality collected in the gas-production area. An additional comparison was made using analyses from this study of groundwater quality in similar geologic and topographic areas for well sites less than and greater than 2 miles from active gas-production wells. Chloride concentrations for the 127 groundwater samples collected for this study ranged from approximately 1.0 milligram per liter (mg/L) to 70 mg/L, with a median concentration of 3.7 mg/L, as compared to maximum and median concentrations for the historical data of 378 mg/L and 20 mg/L, respectively. Statistical analysis of the data sets revealed statistically larger chloride concentrations (p-value <0.001) in the historical data compared to data collected for this study. Chloride serves as an important indicator parameter based on its conservative transport characteristics and relatively elevated concentrations in production waters associated with gas extraction activities. Major ions and trace metals additionally had lower concentrations in data gathered for this study than in the historical analyses. Additionally, no statistical difference existed between chloride concentrations from water-quality data collected for this study from 94 wells located less than 2 miles from a gas-production well and 33 wells located 2 miles or more from a gas-production well; a Wilcoxon rank-sum test showed a p-value of 0.71. Major ion chemistry was investigated to understand the effects of geochemical and reduction-oxidation (redox) processes on the shallow groundwater in the study area along a continuum of increased rock-water interaction represented by increases in dissolved solids concentration. Groundwater in sandstone formations is represented by a low dissolved solids concentration (less than 30 mg/L) and slightly acidic water type. Shallow shale aquifers were represented by dissolved solids concentrations ranging upward to 686 mg/L, and water types evolving from a dominantly mixed-bicarbonate and calcium-bicarbonate to a strongly sodium-bicarbonate water type. Methane concentration and carbon isotopic composition were analyzed in 51 of the 127 samples collected for this study. Methane occurred above a detection limit of 0.0002 mg/L in 32 of the 51 samples, with concentrations ranging upward to 28.5 mg/L. Seven samples had methane concentrations greater than or equal to 0.5 mg/L. The carbon isotopic composition of these higher concentration samples, including the highest concentration of 28.5 mg/L, shows the methane was likely biogenic in origin with carbon isotope ratio values ranging from -57.6 to -74.7 per mil. Methane concentrations increased with increases in dissolved solids concentrations, indicating more strongly reducing conditions with increasing rock-water interaction in the aquifer. As such, groundwater-quality data collected for this study indicate that groundwater chemistry in the shallow aquifer system in the study area is a result of natural processes, beginning with recharge of dilute atmospheric precipitation and evolution of observed groundwater chemistry through rock-water interaction and redox processes.

Arkansas↗
USGS2022

A statistical framework for modelling migration corridors

1. Management of animal populations requires spatially explicit knowledge of movement corridors, such as those used during seasonal migrations. GPS tracking data allows for mapping of corridors from directly observed movements, providing important insights, but tracking data is absent for many populations. 2. We developed a novel statistical corridor modeling approach that predicts movement corridors from cost-distance movement models fit directly to migration tracking data. Unlike existing predictive approaches, this does not require the ad-hoc transformation of habitat suitability surfaces into resistance surfaces. We tested the ability of the approach to recover parameters used to generate simulated movements. We then used GPS data from three migrating mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) herds in Idaho and Wyoming to model corridors as a function of elevation, slope, aspect, percent shrub, date of peak green-up, snow-off date, and human footprint. We assessed the predictive ability of the fitted models using validation tracks from the same herd as well as from the other herds. 3. The approach reproduced parameters used to generate the simulated movements, predicted the corridors used by migratory populations, and described the direction, magnitude, and confidence levels of the effects of environmental variables on corridors. The effects environmental variables had on corridors differed depending on the herd. Within-herd validation indicated that fitted corridor models are more accurate at predicting migration corridors than null models, and cross-herd validation indicated that fitted models for some herds accurately predicted the observed migrations of other herds. 4. In addition to the practical benefit of mapping corridors for management, our statistical corridor modeling framework sets the stage for evaluating fundamental questions about the fitness tradeoffs, navigation, learning, fidelity, and movement constraints that influence migratory and other corridor-generating behavior. Models of predictive corridors can inform management and planning for the conservation of migrations across taxa, including the potential restoration of corridors. Our corridor modeling approach is also readily applied to non-migratory animal movements.

Idaho, Wyoming↗
USGS1997

Preliminary geologic map of the Simi 7.5' quadrangle, southern California: A digital database

The Simi Quadrangle covers an area of about 62 square miles in southern Ventura County. The Santa Clara River Valley occupies the northwestern corner of the quadrangle. Mountainous terrain of South Mountain and Oak Ridge characterizes the northern and central area. Elevation within the quadrangle ranges from about 250 feet along the arroyo bottoms to over 2200 feet. Steep, highly dissected slopes form much of the boundary of the area. In the southeast, Little Simi Valley, drained by Arroyo Simi/Arroyo Las Posas, separates the southern flank of Oak Ridge from the Las Posas Hills. The Las Posas upland area, a broad elevated region that slopes gently to the south, separates the South Mountain-Oak Ridge highlands from the Las Posas-Camarillo Hills between Little Simi Valley on the east and the Oxnard Plain on the west. This relatively low-lying area is also referred to as the Las Posas Valley. Numerous north-south-trending drainages cut South Mountain and Oak Ridge creating steep narrow canyons on north-facing slopes and wide flat-bottomed canyons with incised streams on south-facing slopes. A network of residential streets and ranch and oilfield roads that traverse the area from U.S. Highway 101 and State Highways 118, 23, and 126 provides access to the area. Current land use includes citrus and avocado orchards, oil well drilling and production, sand and gravel quarries, decorative-rock quarries, cattle grazing, suburban residential development, and golf courses. The oldest geologic unit mapped in the Simi Quadrangle is the upper Eocene to lower Miocene Sespe Formation. The Sespe Formation consists of alluvial fan and floodplain deposits of interbedded pebble-cobble conglomerate, massive to thick-bedded sandstone, and thin-bedded siltstone and claystone. In the northern part of the map area, Sespe Formation is overlain by and interfingers with the upper Oligocene to lower Miocene Vaqueros Formation that is composed of transitional and marine sandstone, siltstone, and claystone with local sandy coquina beds. In the Las Posas Hills, Sespe Formation is unconformably overlain by marine sandstones of the middle Miocene Topanga Group that are interlayered with and intruded by basalt flows, breccia, and diabase dikes of the Conejo Volcanics. Deep-marine strata of the upper Miocene Modelo Formation cover the Vaqueros Formation and Topanga Group along the crests and southern flanks of South Mountain and Oak Ridge. They also occur as isolated outcrops in the Las Posas Hills. Locally, Modelo Formation consists of interbedded diatomaceous shale, claystone, mudstone, and siltstone with minor sandstone, limestone, chert, and tuff beds. The most widely exposed rock units in the area are the Plio-Pleistocene marine and non-marine Pico and Saugus Formations that crop out on the southern flank of South Mountain-Oak Ridge. Locally, the Pico Formation consists of marine siltstone and silty shale with minor sandstone and pebbly sandstone. The Saugus Formation overlies and interfingers with the Pico Formation and is composed of interbedded shallow-marine to brackish water sandstone, siltstone, pebble-to-cobble conglomerate, and coquina beds that grade laterally and vertically into non-marine sandstone, siltstone, and conglomerate. A local member of the Saugus Formation is exposed in the southwest corner of the map area. It is predominantly a volcanic breccia conglomerate that resembles the Conejo Volcanics breccia, but is believed to represent remnants of landslide debris shed from the Conejo Volcanics into a local trough during Saugus time. Quaternary surficial deposits cover the floor and margins of the Little Simi Valley, Santa Clara River Valley in the north, and Arroyo Las Posas in the south, and extend up into the larger canyons that drain South Mountain and Oak Ridge. Extensive surficial deposits are also present in the Las Posas upland area in the southwest. These upper Pleistocene to Holocene sediments consist of older and younger alluvial fan and valley deposits, colluvium, active alluvial fans, and active stream deposits. Pleistocene- to Holocene-age landslide deposits are widespread throughout the Simi Quadrangle, especially in the finer grained Tertiary sedimentary units where bedding planes are dip slopes. In addition, massive slumps are present in the Sespe and Vaqueros Formations on anti-dip slopes. Seismic and well data from the San Fernando Valley (SFV) document evolution of that region from mid-Miocene rifting to north-south contraction. Formations in the western SFV subsurface (Cretaceous to Paleogene strata, and Miocene Topanga and Modelo Formations) trace southward to outcrops in the Santa Monica Mountains that constrain faulting along the valley's south basin edge. Cretaceous strata in the Simi Uplift to the west are over 2 km higher than equivalent strata beneath the western SFV across a boundary marked by the Chatsworth Reservoir fault, and Neogene thinning and offlap. The Simi fault, located at the eastern end of the Simi-Santa Rosa fault system, bounds the northern margins of the Simi and Tierra Rejada Valleys. West of Simi Valley, the Simi fault has placed Miocene Conejo Volcanics over Plio-Pleistocene Saugus Formation rocks. The 15.5 ± 0.8 m.y.a. base of the Conejo Volcanics, identified in oil well logs, is inferred to have a dip-slip separation of about 425 to 550 m, suggesting a low long-term slip rate of about 0.03 mm/yr. However, substantial late Quaternary offset is suggested by the presence of more than 150 m of Pleistocene and younger alluvium that fills the east-west trending, down-dropped bedrock trough beneath western Simi Valley. In addition, trenching within faulted colluvial deposits in Tierra Rejada Valley has revealed evidence of multiple shears within Holocene (?) deposits.

California↗
USGS2021

Nocturnal incubation recess and flushing behavior by duck hens

Incubating birds must balance the needs of their developing embryos with their own physiological needs, and many birds accomplish this by taking periodic breaks from incubation. Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and gadwall ( Mareca strepera ) hens typically take incubation recesses in the early morning and late afternoon, but recesses can also take place at night. We examined nocturnal incubation recess behavior for mallard and gadwall hens nesting in Suisun Marsh, California, USA, using iButton temperature dataloggers and continuous video monitoring at nests. Fourteen percent of all detected incubation recesses ( N = 13,708) were nocturnal and took place on 20% of nest‐days ( N = 8,668). Video monitoring showed that hens covered their eggs with down feathers when they initiated a nocturnal recess themselves as they would a diurnal recess, but they left the eggs uncovered in 94% of the nocturnal recesses in which predators appeared at nests. Thus, determining whether or not eggs were left uncovered during a recess can provide strong indication whether the recess was initiated by the hen (eggs covered) or a predator (eggs uncovered). Because nest temperature decreased more rapidly when eggs were left uncovered versus covered, we were able to characterize eggs during nocturnal incubation recesses as covered or uncovered using nest temperature data. Overall, we predicted that 75% of nocturnal recesses were hen‐initiated recesses (eggs covered) whereas 25% of nocturnal recesses were predator‐initiated recesses (eggs uncovered). Of the predator‐initiated nocturnal recesses, 56% were accompanied by evidence of depredation at the nest during the subsequent nest monitoring visit. Hen‐initiated nocturnal recesses began later in the night (closer to morning) and were shorter than predator‐initiated nocturnal recesses. Our results indicate that nocturnal incubation recesses occur regularly (14% of all recesses) and, similar to diurnal recesses, most nocturnal recesses (75%) are initiated by the hen rather than an approaching predator.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Geographic principles applied to population dynamics: A spatially interpolated integrated population model

A major impediment to wildlife conservation and management, from a quantitative perspective, is dealing with high degrees of uncertainty associated with population estimates. Integrated population models (IPMs) can help alleviate that challenge, but they are often limited to narrow spatial or temporal windows owing to the financial and logistical burdens of acquiring requisite datasets. To expand the spatiotemporal scope of practical IPM implementation, we developed a novel method that expresses demographic relatedness among sampled and unsampled locations using geographic principles of spatial autocorrelation. We interpolated demographic parameters at unsampled locations using parameter estimates from data-informed locations. Errors attributable to the interpolative process were corrected using a joint likelihood and locally recorded count data (‘cheaper’ and broadly distributed). We evaluated the spatially interpolated IPM (SIIPM) for precision and accuracy under variable levels of spatial autocorrelation using simulated data and a Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOOCV) technique. Conventional IPMs and state-space models (SSM) were fit to the same simulated datasets to provide a comparative assessment of the novel method. In a final, empirical demonstration we fit the SIIPM to data collected from Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) populations located in Nevada, U.S.A. during 2013–2021. SIIPMs outperformed conventional IPMs when fit to data possessing moderate-to-high levels of spatial autocorrelation. Under moderate levels of autocorrelation, the average improvement in parameter estimation was 13.6% for survival, 65.3% for recruitment and 23.7% for rate of population change (𝜆). When spatial autocorrelation was low, the SIIPM still outperformed contemporary approaches in areas that were geographically close (<67 km) to sampling locations. Under low autocorrelation-near distance scenarios, we observed SIIPM parameters that were 30.8% (recruitment), 32.5% (𝜆; IPM comparison) and 54.0% (𝜆; SSM comparison) more precise than contemporary models. Spatial autocorrelation is often assumed but rarely tested when comparing population dynamics across regions of large geographic extent. We demonstrated that SIIPMs can improve precision of species' vital rate estimation when extrapolating model inference beyond populations for which long-term monitoring data exists. Specific to sage-grouse, these results support previous conclusions of broad-scale spatial autocorrelation in population dynamics and a reproductive-survival trade-off previously documented at smaller scales.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Improving Landsat predictions of rangeland fractional cover with multitask learning and uncertainty

Operational satellite remote sensing products are transforming rangeland management and science. Advancements in computation, data storage and processing have removed barriers that previously blocked or hindered the development and use of remote sensing products. When combined with local data and knowledge, remote sensing products can inform decision‐making at multiple scales. We used temporal convolutional networks to produce a fractional cover product that spans western United States rangelands. We trained the model with 52,012 on‐the‐ground vegetation plots to simultaneously predict fractional cover for annual forbs and grasses, perennial forbs and grasses, shrubs, trees, litter and bare ground. To assist interpretation and to provide a measure of prediction confidence, we also produced spatiotemporal‐explicit, pixel‐level estimates of uncertainty. We evaluated the model with 5,780 on‐the‐ground vegetation plots removed from the training data. Model evaluation averaged 6.3% mean absolute error and 9.6% root mean squared error. Evaluation with additional datasets that were not part of the training dataset, and that varied in geographic range, method of collection, scope and size, revealed similar metrics. Model performance increased across all functional groups compared to the previously produced fractional product. The advancements achieved with the new rangeland fractional cover product expand the management toolbox with improved predictions of fractional cover and pixel‐level uncertainty. The new product is available on the Rangeland Analysis Platform (https://rangelands.app/), an interactive web application that tracks rangeland vegetation through time. This product is intended to be used alongside local on‐the‐ground data, expert knowledge, land use history, scientific literature and other sources of information when making interpretations. When being used to inform decision‐making, remotely sensed products should be evaluated and utilized according to the context of the decision and not be used in isolation.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2016

Uncertainty in biological monitoring: a framework for data collection and analysis to account for multiple sources of sampling bias

Biological monitoring programmes are increasingly relying upon large volumes of citizen-science data to improve the scope and spatial coverage of information, challenging the scientific community to develop design and model-based approaches to improve inference. Recent statistical models in ecology have been developed to accommodate false-negative errors, although current work points to false-positive errors as equally important sources of bias. This is of particular concern for the success of any monitoring programme given that rates as small as 3% could lead to the overestimation of the occurrence of rare events by as much as 50%, and even small false-positive rates can severely bias estimates of occurrence dynamics. We present an integrated, computationally efficient Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for false-positive and false-negative errors in detection/non-detection data. Our model combines independent, auxiliary data sources with field observations to improve the estimation of false-positive rates, when a subset of field observations cannot be validated a posteriori or assumed as perfect. We evaluated the performance of the model across a range of occurrence rates, false-positive and false-negative errors, and quantity of auxiliary data. The model performed well under all simulated scenarios, and we were able to identify critical auxiliary data characteristics which resulted in improved inference. We applied our false-positive model to a large-scale, citizen-science monitoring programme for anurans in the north-eastern United States, using auxiliary data from an experiment designed to estimate false-positive error rates. Not correcting for false-positive rates resulted in biased estimates of occupancy in 4 of the 10 anuran species we analysed, leading to an overestimation of the average number of occupied survey routes by as much as 70%. The framework we present for data collection and analysis is able to efficiently provide reliable inference for occurrence patterns using data from a citizen-science monitoring programme. However, our approach is applicable to data generated by any type of research and monitoring programme, independent of skill level or scale, when effort is placed on obtaining auxiliary information on false-positive rates.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Habitat features influencing waterbird use of managed wetlands enrolled in a public-private partnership for land conservation: The California Waterfowl Habitat Program

Draining, water diversion, and development have greatly reduced the availability of freshwater wetland habitat around the world, and many remaining wetlands are on private lands. Public–private partnership programs can be an important means for promoting habitat conservation and management on private lands. We investigated bird use of 117 wetlands enrolled in the California Waterfowl Habitat Program in California's Central Valley, where two-thirds of wetlands are under private ownership and management. Specifically, we quantified the influence of wetland habitat features and surrounding land cover on waterbird density and diversity in late winter and early spring and during the waterfowl breeding season. Dabbling duck and shorebird densities were highest in wetlands that had water depths < 20 cm, and waterbird densities decreased with water depth. Greater amounts of emergent vegetation, especially tall and dense emergent vegetation, had a negative effect on total waterbird density but a positive effect on species richness and secretive marsh bird density. Shorebird and breeding duck densities were lower in wetlands with a large number of trees and other potential perch sites, and waterbird densities decreased with the amount of nearby wetland habitat on the landscape. Overall, we estimated that during late winter and early spring, private properties that were enrolled in the California Waterfowl Habitat Program (8000–8500 ha each year) supported 480,000 birds per day during extreme drought conditions in 2022 and 280,000 birds per day in more normal, non-drought conditions in 2023. Over the 76-day winter and early spring survey period, this amounted to more than 20 million bird use days on wetlands enrolled in the California Waterfowl Habitat Program during late winter and early spring. These results demonstrate the value of public–private wetland conservation partnerships, the influence of wetland habitat features and surrounding land cover on waterbird abundance, and the benefits of habitat features that could be incorporated into management plans and wetland selection criteria for enrollment into public–private conservation programs.

California↗
USGS2023

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, Lower Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

The Humboldt River Basin is the only river basin that is contained entirely within the State of Nevada. The effect of groundwater pumping on the Humboldt River is not well understood. Tools are needed to determine stream capture and manage groundwater pumping in the Humboldt River Basin. The objective of this study is to estimate capture and storage change caused by groundwater withdrawals in the lower Humboldt River Basin that can provide the Nevada State Engineer with data and information needed to manage groundwater and surface-water resources. A numerical groundwater flow model was developed for the purpose of estimating stream capture from pre-2016 and future pumping as well as for any location of potential future pumping within the lower Humboldt River Basin. This model was developed using MODFLOW-NWT to represent the lower Humboldt River Basin hydrologic system, including Humboldt River; Rye Patch Reservoir; groundwater evapotranspiration; pumping from municipal, agricultural, mining, and domestic wells; and agricultural drains. Aquifer properties were calibrated using results from numerous single- and multi-well aquifer tests (Nadler, 2020) and through the process of model calibration. Historical capture was estimated for 1960–2016 and predictive capture for the system was projected 100 years into the future (2017–2116) based on historical pumping patterns. Stream capture and drain capture are relatively low for the historical and predictive periods. During the historical period, increased pumping during dry years caused increased connections with capture sources and less water sourced to wells from aquifer storage. Storage and groundwater levels generally recovered during subsequent wet years. Overall, storage change has been the main source of water to wells in the lower Humboldt River Basin, followed by groundwater evapotranspiration capture. During the predictive period, pumping is projected to remain constant and capture 9 percent of stream water after 100 years. Capture and storage change maps were created to visualize spatial variability in potential capture and storage change through time and to provide a database of results that can be used to manage groundwater and surface-water resources. These maps show that potential stream capture would be a minor source of water to wells located across most of the simulated area, except for locations close to the Humboldt River and Rye Patch Reservoir. Drains also would be a minor potential source of water to wells except for those directly adjacent to the drains. In general, the potential supply of water to wells is storage-dominated and over time groundwater evapotranspiration-dominated in the agricultural area. Capture difference maps were generated to visualize where potential capture results might have greater limitations associated with nonlinear flow processes, such as head-dependent boundary conditions. Higher capture differences indicate larger capture map bias and therefore greater capture map uncertainty due to the inability of capture maps to account for nonlinear flow processes. Stream capture differences are highest directly adjacent to the river but are otherwise minimal. Drain capture differences are highest in the region of the agricultural drain network but are otherwise minimal. The Humboldt River, Rye Patch Reservoir, and drains introduce very little nonlinearity to the model, and their associated capture map bias is minimal. Potential groundwater evapotranspiration capture introduces a fair amount of nonlinearity to the model and has the potential to result in significant, localized groundwater evapotranspiration capture map bias over time. Groundwater evapotranspiration capture differences are the result of higher pumping rates lowering the water table below the root zone faster than lower pumping rates and essentially removing groundwater evapotranspiration as a potential source of capture faster than lower pumping rates. Wells that can no longer source their supply through groundwater evapotranspiration capture then generally source more of their water from storage. Thus, storage change bias increases over time as well. Capture prediction uncertainty due to parameter estimation was evaluated using a covariance matrix adaptation-evolution strategy. One hundred Monte Carlo realizations of model parameters were applied to the model to assess capture uncertainty at 13 grid cell locations within the model domain. In general, results indicated that greater capture uncertainty for a given source (river, drains, or evapotranspiration) is associated with proximity of a pumping well to that source. The magnitude of maximum capture fraction uncertainties after 100 years of pumping for stream capture, drain capture, groundwater evapotranspiration capture, and storage change were plus or minus (±) 0.17, ±0.10, ±0.20, and ±0.22, respectively.

Nevada↗
USGS2024

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Presence-only modeling using MAXENT: when can we trust the inferences?

1. Recently, interest in species distribution modelling has increased following the development of new methods for the analysis of presence-only data and the deployment of these methods in user-friendly and powerful computer programs. However, reliable inference from these powerful tools requires that several assumptions be met, including the assumptions that observed presences are the consequence of random or representative sampling and that detectability during sampling does not vary with the covariates that determine occurrence probability. 2. Based on our interactions with researchers using these tools, we hypothesized that many presence-only studies were ignoring important assumptions of presence-only modelling. We tested this hypothesis by reviewing 108 articles published between 2008 and 2012 that used the MAXENT algorithm to analyse empirical (i.e. not simulated) data. We chose to focus on these articles because MAXENT has been the most popular algorithm in recent years for analysing presence-only data. 3. Many articles (87%) were based on data that were likely to suffer from sample selection bias; however, methods to control for sample selection bias were rarely used. In addition, many analyses (36%) discarded absence information by analysing presence–absence data in a presence-only framework, and few articles (14%) mentioned detection probability. We conclude that there are many misconceptions concerning the use of presence-only models, including the misunderstanding that MAXENT, and other presence-only methods, relieve users from the constraints of survey design. 4. In the process of our literature review, we became aware of other factors that raised concerns about the validity of study conclusions. In particular, we observed that 83% of articles studies focused exclusively on model output (i.e. maps) without providing readers with any means to critically examine modelled relationships and that MAXENT's logistic output was frequently (54% of articles) and incorrectly interpreted as occurrence probability. 5. We conclude with a series of recommendations foremost that researchers analyse data in a presence–absence framework whenever possible, because fewer assumptions are required and inferences can be made about clearly defined parameters such as occurrence probability.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Interrupted incubation: How dabbling ducks respond when flushed from the nest

Nesting birds must provide a thermal environment sufficient for egg development while also meeting self‐maintenance needs. Many birds, particularly those with uniparental incubation, achieve this balance through periodic incubation recesses, during which foraging and other self‐maintenance activities can occur. However, incubating birds may experience disturbances such as predator or human activity which interrupt natural incubation patterns by compelling them to leave the nest. We characterized incubating mallard Anas platyrhynchos and gadwall Mareca strepera hens’ responses when flushed by predators and investigators in Suisun Marsh, California, USA. Diurnal incubation recesses initiated by investigators approaching nests were 63% longer than natural diurnal incubation recesses initiated by the hen (geometric mean: 226.77 min versus 142.04 min). Nocturnal incubation recesses, many of which were likely the result of predators flushing hens, were of similar duration regardless of whether the nest was partially depredated during the event (115.33 [101.01;131.68] minutes) or not (119.62 [111.96;127.82] minutes), yet were 16% shorter than natural diurnal incubation recesses. Hens moved further from the nest during natural diurnal recesses or investigator‐initiated recesses than during nocturnal recesses, and the proportion of hen locations recorded in wetland versus upland habitat during recesses varied with recess type (model‐predicted means: natural diurnal recess 0.77; investigator‐initiated recess 0.82; nocturnal recess 0.31). Hens were more likely to take a natural recess following an investigator‐initiated recess earlier that same day than following a natural recess earlier that same day, and natural recesses that followed an investigator‐initiated recess were longer than natural recesses that followed an earlier natural recess, suggesting that hens may not fulfill all of their physiological needs during investigator‐initiated recesses. We found no evidence that the duration of investigator‐initiated recesses was influenced by repeated visits to the nest, whether by predators or by investigators, and trapping and handling the hen did not affect investigator‐initiated recess duration unless the hen was also fitted with a backpack‐harness style GPS–GSM transmitter at the time of capture. Hens that were captured and fitted with GPS–GSM transmitters took recesses that were 26% longer than recesses during which a hen was captured but a GPS–GSM transmitter was not attached. Incubation interruptions had measurable but limited and specific effects on hen behavior.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS1990

Sedimentary paleoenvironments of fossil platyrrhine localities, Miocene Pinturas Formation, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina

The Pinturas Formation is a pyroclastic and epiclastic aeolian deposit of Miocene age lying discordantly upon Jurassic rocks in the elevated Andean precordillera of northwest Santa Cruz Province, Argentina. The history of development of the Pinturas Formation was significantly affected by the gradual, though sporadic, draping of this aeolian sediment across a profound, slowly filling paleotopography. The Pinturas depositional cycle consisted of: (1) minor aeolian deposition followed by soil formation, and (2) major aeolian deposition followed by intervals of regional erosion. Fluvial action seems to have been almost wholly confined to intraformational erosion, and two significant intraformational erosional unconformities divide the Pinturas Formation into three sequences. The lower sequence is dominated by pyroclastic mudrocks upon which were formed very mature, probably mollic, paleosols; the middle sequence is composed largely of epiclastic sand occurring as barchanoid paleodunes; and the upper sequence consists of massive, poorly bedded pyroclastic mudrocks. Many Pinturas lacunae were reconstructed on the basis of locally preserved strata, and a novel method of holostrome reconstruction using relative paleosol maturities places Pinturas sedimentation in a more accurate temporal light. It also indicates: (1) that the Pinturas sediment accumulation rate increased with time; (2) that regional erosive intervals are correlated directly with major influxes of pyroclastic material; and (3) that the introduction of the Pinturas platyrrhine primates occurred in the sequence:Carlocebus carmenensis, C. intermedius andSoriacebus ameghinorum. Soriacebus adrianae. Pinturas paleosols appear to have formed under moist conditions, and both mature and immature varieties yield a host of ichnofossils. These include the burrows and nests of bees, scarabeid beetles, termites, and at least two different kinds of colonial rodents, in addition to rhizoliths and the calcified boles and root systems of trees. A fossil nest of a nasutitermitine termite in the lower sequence of the formation indicates the presence of tropical forest. Climatic conditions may have been drier during deposition of the barchanoid paleodunes in early late Pinturas time, or the dunes might reflect drier source areas or have simply encroached on areas of highland forest. Fossil mammals are abundant in Pinturas sediments, and attritional concentrations of them were recognized in the upper parts of paleosols and on the floors of erosional scours. Radiometric dates indicate that the fossil mammals (including platyrrhine primates) occurring in the lower and middle parts of the formation may range in age from about 16-6 to younger than 13-3 Ma (million years ago) (Santacrucian and, almost certainly, Friasian land-mammal ages). This age range is somewhat younger than previous estimates, and suggests that the Pinturas faunas correlate broadly with those from the type Santa Cruz Formation, with the presumed position of the type Friasian, and with the base of the marine Gaiman Formation in the lower valley of the Rio Chubut.

Journal of Human Evolution↗
USGS2002

Water quality and environmental isotopic analyses of ground-water samples collected from the Wasatch and Fort Union Formations in areas of coalbed methane development — Implications to recharge and ground-water flow, eastern Powder River Basin, Wyoming

Chemical analyses of ground-water samples were evaluated as part of an investigation of lower Tertiary aquifers in the eastern Powder River Basin where coalbed methane is being developed. Ground-water samples were collected from two springs discharging from clinker, eight monitoring wells completed in the Wasatch aquifer, and 13 monitoring or coalbed methane production wells completed in coalbed aquifers. The ground-water samples were analyzed for major ions and environmental isotopes (tritium and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen) to characterize the composition of waters in these aquifers, to relate these characteristics to geochemical processes, and to evaluate recharge and ground-water flow within and between these aquifers. This investigation was conducted in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer's Office and the Bureau of Land Management. Water quality in the different aquifers was characterized by major-ion composition. Samples collected from the two springs were classified as calcium-sulfate-type and calcium-bicarbonate-type waters. All ground-water samples from the coalbed aquifers were sodium-bicarbonate-type waters as were five of eight samples collected from the overlying Wasatch aquifer. Potential areal patterns in ionic composition were examined. Ground-water samples collected during this and another investigation suggest that dissolved-solids concentrations in the coalbed aquifers may be lower south of the Belle Fourche River (generally less than 600 milligrams per liter). As ground water in coalbed aquifers flows to the north and northwest away from an inferred source of recharge (clinker in the study area), dissolved-solids concentrations appear to increase. Variation in ionic composition in the vertical dimension was examined qualitatively and statistically within and between aquifers. A relationship between ionic composition and well depth was noted and corroborates similar observations by earlier investigators in the Powder River Basin in both Wyoming and Montana. This relationship results in two different water-quality zones with different characteristics - a shallow zone, comprising the upper part of the Wasatch aquifer, characterized by mixed cation composition and either sulfate or bicarbonate as the dominant anion; and a deeper zone, comprising the lower (deeper) part of the Wasatch aquifer and the underlying coalbed aquifers, characterized by sodium-bicarbonate-type waters. The zonation appears to be related to geochemical processes described by earlier investigators such as dissolution and precipitation of minerals, ion exchange, sulfate reduction, and mixing of waters. Qualitative and statistically significant differences were observed in sulfate concentrations between the coalbed aquifers and the overlying Wasatch aquifer. Ionic composition suggests that bacterially mediated redox processes such as sulfate reduction were probably the dominant geochemical processes in the anaerobic coalbed aquifers. Tritium was used to qualitatively estimate the time of ground-water recharge. Tritium concentrations in both springs suggests that both were recharged after 1952 and contain modern water. Tritium was not detected at concentrations suggestive of modern water in any ground-water samples collected from the coalbed aquifers or in six of eight ground-water samples collected from the overlying Wasatch aquifer. Tritium concentrations in the remaining two wells from the Wasatch aquifer suggest a mixture between submodern (recharged before 1952) and modern water, although the low concentrations suggest that ground water in these two wells have very little modern water. The relative absence of modern water in all aquifers in the study area suggests that recharge processes to these aquifers are probably very slow. Paired d 2 H (deuterium/hydrogen isotopic ratio) and d 18 O (oxygen-18/oxygen-16 isotopic ratio) values for samples collected from the springs and all aquifers are close to the Global Meteoric Water Line, a meteoric water line for North American continental precipitation, and an estimated local meteoric water line, suggesting the water in the aquifers is of meteoric origin. The d 2 H and d 18 O values suggest that the waters were recharged in a colder climate or temperature, mid-latitudes, and mid-continent. In general, the samples do not form separate groups based on aquifer origin; this suggests either intermixing of the waters in the aquifers or that the different aquifers are subject to similar recharge and/or evolutional paths for the water. However, examination of the differences in the values of d 2 H and d 18 O, in combination with major-ion chemistry at three monitoring-well clusters, suggest that changes in the values with depth may represent different timing or sources of recharge to the different aquifers. The areal distribution of d 2 H was examined and an apparent break in the d 2 H along a northwest to southeast trend was observed. In the coalbed aquifers, all but one ground-water sample (collected from the Big George coal bed), show a pattern where the d 2 H values become more negative towards the center of the Powder River Basin and values greater (less negative) than an arbitrary reference value of -140 ‰ (per mil or parts per thousand) were observed near the outcrop area of the Wyodak-Anderson coal zone. In the overlying Wasatch aquifer, the d 2 H values became less negative towards the center of the basin. The values more negative than -140 ‰ are near the outcrop area and the values that are less negative than -140 ‰ are closer to the basin center. It is unclear if this pattern is a result of sample size, different recharge mechanisms, geochemical processes, or if the processes producing these differences are independent or unrecognized. Results of water-quality sampling were compared with selected regulatory and non-regulatory standards as well as commonly-used guidelines for proposed water uses. Dissolved solids was the measure that most frequently exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency public water-supply standards and State of Wyoming domestic-use standards in ground-water samples collected from the Wasatch aquifer and coalbed aquifers. The State of Wyoming agricultural standards (irrigation) for sulfate and dissolved solids were exceeded in some samples collected from the Wasatch aquifer and coalbed aquifers. The State of Wyoming livestock standard for pH was exceeded in some samples collected from the Wasatch aquifer. Water from the Wasatch aquifer ranged from soft to very hard, and water from the coalbed aquifers ranged from moderately hard to very hard. Samples collected from wells completed in both the Wasatch aquifer and coalbed aquifers plotted in a wide range of both sodium- and salinity-hazard classes, but most samples clustered in or near the combined medium-sodium-hazard—high-salinity-hazard classes.

Wyoming↗
USGS2024

New U-Pb geochronology and geochemistry of Paleozoic metaigneous rocks from western Yukon and eastern Alaska, cross-border synthesis, and implications for tectonic models

The tectonic evolution of and relation between the Yukon-Tanana terrane and the Lake George assemblage, as well as other associated tectonic assemblages in western Yukon and eastern Alaska, have been debated for decades. The Yukon-Tanana terrane is widely considered to be an allochthonous rifted fragment derived from the Laurentian continental margin, whereas the Lake George assemblage and associated assemblages are currently interpreted to be part of the parautochthonous continental margin of western North America (Laurentia). To address these topics, we present 40 new U-Pb zircon ages and 20 new whole-rock geochemical analyses. We incorporate these data into a new compilation of available geological mapping for a large area that straddles the Alaska-Yukon border, together with 34 previously published U-Pb age determinations and an extensive geochemical database of metaigneous rocks from Late Devonian to Early Mississippian and middle to late Permian assemblages in this area. Magmatism in the Lake George assemblage and related assemblages occurred in two pulses from about 371 to 360 and from about 358 to 347 million years ago (Ma); geochemical discrimination diagrams indicate a large crustal component, possibly indicative of arc magmatism, for felsic metaigneous rocks and a range of tectonic environments for mafic rocks. Magmatism in the Fortymile River and related assemblages, and parts of the Nasina assemblage—all parts of the Yukon-Tanana terrane—are mainly Early Mississippian and span a crystallization age range from about 361 to 343 Ma; geochemical discrimination diagrams for these rocks indicate primarily arc geochemical signatures for both mafic and felsic rocks. Middle to late Permian crystallization ages (about 261–253 Ma) are indicated for felsic metaigneous rocks in the Klondike assemblage and some of the felsic metaigneous rocks in the Nasina assemblage. Based on our mapping, we propose the existence of a possible unconformity between the Mississippian and Permian felsic metavolcanic rocks within the Nasina assemblage that is marked by sporadic occurrences of stretched-pebble conglomerate. Our combined database supports the well-established model of a magmatic arc comprising the Fortymile River and Finlayson assemblages of the rifted Yukon-Tanana terrane continental fragment on which a middle to late Permian arc (Klondike assemblage) was later built. The assemblages of the Yukon-Tanana terrane were subsequently intruded by Late Triassic to Early Jurassic granitoids, presumably during reaccretion of the Yukon-Tanana terrane to the continental margin. Permian and Late Triassic to Early Jurassic intrusions have not been mapped in the now structurally lower plate Lake George assemblage; their absence is one of the lines of evidence that have been used to support the parautochthonous, rather than allochthonous, origin of the Lake George assemblage and related assemblages. Our new data, together with previously published ranges of igneous crystallization ages and geochemical tectonic signatures of the Late Devonian to Early Mississippian magmatic rocks in the Lake George assemblage and associated assemblages and in the Fortymile River, Nasina, and correlated assemblages of the Yukon-Tanana terrane, indicate that the currently accepted interpretation of the Lake George assemblage and associated rocks being part of parauthochthonous North America is not the only possible interpretation of this tectonic entity. Approximately half of the dated intrusive rocks in the Lake George assemblage are contemporaneous with the metaigneous rocks of the Yukon-Tanana terrane arc (<361 Ma). We speculate that our approximately 361 Ma U-Pb age for quartz syenite in part of the North American continental margin in south-central Yukon defines the beginning of rifting of the Laurentian margin. Although the currently favored model of prolonged middle Paleozoic subduction and extension in both the Yukon-Tanana terrane and parautochthonous North America allows for simultaneous middle Paleozoic magmatism on both sides of the Slide Mountain Ocean, we now propose an alternative hypothesis in which the Lake George assemblage represents a deeper part of the rifted Yukon-Tanana terrane arc. If this is the case, the absence of Permian and Late Triassic to Early Jurassic arc rocks in the Lake George assemblage could be explained either by the arcs of these ages not being wide enough to have affected the Lake George assemblage or by tectonic displacement of these arc rocks away from the Lake George assemblage. Our approximately 259 Ma U-Pb zircon age and geochemical analyses of metarhyolite in the Seventymile terrane in Alaska, which comprises remnants of the back-arc basin that separated the Yukon-Tanana terrane from the Laurentian continental margin, confirm the presence of a late middle Permian volcanic arc component to the terrane. Our approximately 319 Ma U-Pb zircon age from the Chicken assemblage (as redefined in this study) in eastern Alaska, combined with previously reported fossil ages and a U-Pb zircon age from this assemblage, indicate that it is a Late Mississippian to Early Pennsylvanian arc assemblage. We propose several other relatively young, locally developed arc assemblages outboard of the ancient continental margin of Laurentia that may correlate with the Chicken assemblage, but we consider its origin to remain an enigma.

Alaska↗