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Public lakes, private lakeshore: Modeling protection of native aquatic plants

Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221–279, 1977 ) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975 ), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey ( n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners’ behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.

Minnesota↗

Riparian methylmercury production increases riverine mercury flux and food web concentrations

The production and uptake of toxic methylmercury (MeHg) impacts aquatic ecosystems globally. Rivers can be dynamic and difficult systems to study for MeHg production and bioaccumulation, hence identifying sources of MeHg to these systems is both challenging and important for resource management within rivers and main-stem reservoirs. Riparian zones, which are known biogeochemical hotspots for MeHg production, are understudied as potential sources of MeHg to rivers. Here, we present a comprehensive quantification of the hydrologic and biogeochemical processes governing MeHg concentrations, loads, and bioaccumulation at 16 locations along 164 km of the agriculturally intensive Snake River (Idaho, Oregon USA) during summer baseflow conditions, with emphasis on riparian production of MeHg. Approximately one-third of the MeHg load of the Snake River could not be attributed to inflowing waters (upgradient, tributaries, or irrigation drains). Across the study reach, increases in MeHg loads in surface waters were significantly correlated with MeHg concentrations in riparian porewaters, suggesting riparian zones were likely an important source of MeHg to the Snake River. Across all locations, MeHg concentrations in surface waters positively correlated with MeHg concentrations in benthic snails and clams, supporting that riparian produced MeHg was assimilated into local aquatic food webs. This study contributes new insights into riparian MeHg production within rivers which can inform mitigation efforts to reduce MeHg bioaccumulation in fish.

Idaho, Oregon↗

Intercontinental dispersal of bacteria and archaea by transpacific winds

Microorganisms are abundant in the upper atmosphere, particularly downwind of arid regions, where winds can mobilize large amounts of topsoil and dust. However, the challenge of collecting samples from the upper atmosphere and reliance upon culture-based characterization methods have prevented a comprehensive understanding of globally dispersed airborne microbes. In spring 2011 at the Mt. Bachelor Observatory in North America (2.8 km above sea level), we captured enough microbial biomass in two transpacific air plumes to permit a microarray analysis using 16S rRNA genes. Thousands of distinct bacterial taxa spanning a wide range of phyla and surface environments were detected before, during, and after each Asian long-range transport event. Interestingly, the transpacific plumes delivered higher concentrations of taxa already in the background air (particularly Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Firmicutes). While some bacterial families and a few marine archaea appeared for the first and only time during the plumes, the microbial community compositions were similar, despite the unique transport histories of the air masses. It seems plausible, when coupled with atmospheric modeling and chemical analysis, that microbial biogeography can be used to pinpoint the source of intercontinental dust plumes. Given the degree of richness measured in our study, the overall contribution of Asian aerosols to microbial species in North American air warrants additional investigation.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗

Size-dependent reactivity of magnetite nanoparticles: a field-laboratory comparison

Logistic challenges make direct comparisons between laboratory- and field-based investigations into the size-dependent reactivity of nanomaterials difficult. This investigation sought to compare the size-dependent reactivity of nanoparticles in a field setting to a laboratory analog using the specific example of magnetite dissolution. Synthetic magnetite nanoparticles of three size intervals, ∼6 nm, ∼44 nm, and ∼90 nm were emplaced in the subsurface of the USGS research site at the Norman Landfill for up to 30 days using custom-made subsurface nanoparticle holders. Laboratory analog dissolution experiments were conducted using synthetic groundwater. Reaction products were analyzed via TEM and SEM and compared to initial particle characterizations. Field results indicated that an organic coating developed on the particle surfaces largely inhibiting reactivity. Limited dissolution occurred, with the amount of dissolution decreasing as particle size decreased. Conversely, the laboratory analogs without organics revealed greater dissolution of the smaller particles. These results showed that the presence of dissolved organics led to a nearly complete reversal in the size-dependent reactivity trends displayed between the field and laboratory experiments indicating that size-dependent trends observed in laboratory investigations may not be relevant in organic-rich natural systems.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Double loop learning in adaptive management: the need, the challenge, and the opportunity

Adaptive management addresses uncertainty about the processes influencing resource dynamics, as well as the elements of decision making itself. The use of management to reduce both kinds of uncertainty is known as double-loop learning. Though much work has been done on the theory and procedures to address structural uncertainty, there has been less progress in developing an explicit approach for institutional learning about decision elements. Our objective is to describe evidence-based learning about the decision elements, as a complement to the formal “learning by doing” framework for reducing structural uncertainties. Adaptive management is described as a multi-phase approach to management and learning, with a set-up phase of identifying stakeholders, objectives, and other decision elements; an iterative phase that uses these elements in an ongoing cycle of technical learning about system structure and management impacts; and an institutional learning phase involving the periodic reconsideration of the decision elements. We describe a framework for institutional learning that is complementary to that of technical learning, including uncertainty metrics, propagation of change, and mechanisms and consequences of change over time. Operational issues include ways to recognize when the decision elements should be revisited, which elements should be adjusted, and how alternatives can be identified and incorporated based on experience and management performance. We discuss the application of this framework in decision making for renewable natural resources. As important as it is to learn about the processes driving resource dynamics, learning about the elements of the decision architecture is equally, if not more, important.

Environmental Management↗

Tools and methods in participatory modeling: Selecting the right tool for the job

Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process.

Environmental Modeling and Software↗

Rapid prototyping for quantifying belief weights of competing hypotheses about emergent diseases

Emerging diseases can have devastating consequences for wildlife and require a rapid response. A critical first step towards developing appropriate management is identifying the etiology of the disease, which can be difficult to determine, particularly early in emergence. Gathering and synthesizing existing information about potential disease causes, by leveraging expert knowledge or relevant existing studies, provides a principled approach to quickly inform decision-making and management efforts. Additionally, updating the current state of knowledge as more information becomes available over time can reduce scientific uncertainty and lead to substantial improvement in the decision-making process and the application of management actions that incorporate and adapt to newly acquired scientific understanding. Here we present a rapid prototyping method for quantifying belief weights for competing hypotheses about the etiology of disease using a combination of formal expert elicitation and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We illustrate the application of this approach for investigating the etiology of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) and discuss the opportunities and challenges of this approach for addressing emergent diseases. Lastly, we detail how our work may apply to other pressing management or conservation problems that require quick responses. We found the rapid prototyping methods to be an efficient and rapid means to narrow down the number of potential hypotheses, synthesize current understanding, and help prioritize future studies and experiments. This approach is rapid by providing a snapshot assessment of the current state of knowledge. It can also be updated periodically (e.g., annually) to assess changes in belief weights over time as scientific understanding increases. Synthesis and applications: The rapid prototyping approaches demonstrated here can be used to combine knowledge from multiple experts and/or studies to help with fast decision-making needed for urgent conservation issues including emerging diseases and other management problems that require rapid responses. These approaches can also be used to adjust belief weights over time as studies and expert knowledge accumulate and can be a helpful tool for adapting management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

The thermal landscape of the Willamette River—Patterns and controls on stream temperature and implications for flow management and cold-water salmonids

Water temperature is a primary control on the health, diversity, abundance, and distribution of aquatic species, but thermal degradation resulting from anthropogenic influences on rivers is a challenge to threatened species worldwide. In the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon, spring-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and winter-run steelhead ( O. mykiss ) are formerly abundant cold-water-adapted species that are now protected under the Endangered Species Act. Among the challenges to the health of cold-water salmonids in the Willamette River Basin, disruptions in the seasonal patterns of stream temperature imposed by 13 large, multipurpose dams on tributaries to the Willamette River, as well as temperatures routinely in excess of regulatory limits in the Willamette River Basin, are contributing factors. To better understand controls on stream temperature, the sensitivity of stream temperature to flow augmentation as a management tool for suppressing high temperatures, and the implications for threatened salmonids, this study used a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) to investigate spatial and temporal patterns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year), and a series of flow-augmentation scenarios. Model results show that the Willamette River upstream from Willamette Falls is divisible into four characteristic “thermal reaches” with similar thermal patterns, depending on tributary input, warming rate, and the timing of thermal response. In general, the Willamette River warms downstream during spring and summer, but patterns are complex, influenced by tributary inflows, and seasonally variable. Except in cool wet years (as illustrated by 2011), modeling suggests that adversely warm conditions for spring-run Chinook salmon are extensive from June or July through August. The thermal influence of flow augmentation from dam storage on four tributaries with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams varies spatially along the Willamette River, seasonally, and in magnitude, depending on a range of factors like distance from the Willamette River, the temperature of dam outflow, and the thermal template of tributary reaches controlling stream temperature adjustment to environmental heat fluxes. Modeling suggests that targeted flow management (via augmentation from dam storage) can reduce the extent and duration of thermally stressful conditions for Chinook salmon for short periods, but modeling suggests that flow augmentation is limited in its ability to fundamentally alter the “thermal landscape” (the entire range of temperature variation in a river system over space and time) of the Willamette River. While this research provides general insights into the thermal landscape of the Willamette River and its sensitivity to flow management, additional investigation into the thermal landscape of tributaries downstream from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams, as well as the thermal management of reservoirs, storage availability, and dam outflows, would be necessary to target specific management actions for supporting specified rearing or migration conditions for spring-run Chinook salmon and other cold-water-adapted species in the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon↗

Joint spatial modeling bridges the gap between disparate disease surveillance and population monitoring efforts informing conservation of at-risk bat species

White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) is a wildlife disease that has decimated hibernating bats since its introduction in North America in 2006. As the disease spreads westward, assessing the potentially differential impact of the disease on western bat species is an urgent conservation need. The statistical challenge is that the disease surveillance and species response monitoring data are not co-located, available at different spatial resolutions, non-Gaussian, and subject to observation error requiring a novel extension to spatially misaligned regression models for analysis. Previous work motivated by epidemiology applications has proposed two-step approaches that overcome the spatial misalignment while intentionally preventing the human health outcome from informing estimation of exposure. In our application, the impacted animals contribute to spreading the fungus that causes WNS, motivating development of a joint framework that exploits the known biological relationship. We introduce a Bayesian, joint spatial modeling framework that provides inferences about the impact of WNS on measures of relative bat activity and accounts for the uncertainty in estimation of WNS presence at non-surveyed locations. Our simulations demonstrate that the joint model produced more precise estimates of disease occurrence and unbiased estimates of the association between disease presence and the count response relative to competing two-step approaches. Our statistical framework provides a solution that leverages disparate monitoring activities and informs species conservation across large landscapes. Stan code and documentation are provided to facilitate access and adaptation for other wildlife disease applications.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗

Evaluation of dissolved carbon dioxide to stimulate emergence of red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii (Decapoda: Cambaridae) from infested ponds

Invasive crayfish have adverse effects on habitats and native species. Control of invasive crayfish populations is a major challenge facing natural resource managers. This study evaluated the effectiveness and optimal conditions for the control agent carbon dioxide (CO2) which can be diffused into water to facilitate capture of red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii; RSC). The efficacy of CO2 shows promise in its use for a variety of invasive aquatic species. Here, we evaluate CO2’s ability to stimulate movements towards the shoreline and/or induce complete terrestrial emergence from outdoor ponds. Twelve pond trials were conducted using three, 0.02-ha experimental ponds at Auburn University, Alabama, USA. Silt fencing was installed on dry land around the perimeter of each pond with the lower 0.3 m of fencing accordion-folded to provide shelter and a collection point for emerging crayfish. Each pond was stocked with 100 RSC before testing. Experimental treatment ponds were then injected with gaseous CO2 using porous air diffusers, whereas control ponds (C ponds) received no CO2. Multiple water quality parameters were monitored hourly. Three independent treatment scenarios with CO2 diffusion were: crayfish captured at the end of trial only (F: final), crayfish captured hourly (H: hourly), and incorporation of continuous inflow of fresh water at a flow rate of 0.2 L/s into the central catch basin to serve as a refuge with crayfish captured hourly (R: refuge). In control ponds, crayfish were captured at the end of trial only. In F ponds, CO2 diffusion for approximately five hours caused an average of 12% of total crayfish to emerge from the water. However, capture efficiency was increased to an average of 45% of total crayfish by increasing collection frequency to every hour and netting submerged crayfish near the water edge in addition to capturing terrestrially emerged crayfish. Presence of a freshwater inflow reduced capture efficiency in R ponds relative to H ponds. Odds of capturing crayfish improved with increased water temperature, increased CO2 concentration and increased crayfish mass. Based on results, we provide a set of predictive equations as well as interactive calculators to help natural resource managers explore several environmental and treatment-related scenarios that predict changes in capture probability in small research ponds. Carbon dioxide shows promises as a tool to increase capture rate of RSC. It is not likely to be 100% effective by itself, but could be a useful component of an integrated management strategy.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

Contemporary carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems in the Southeastern Plains of the United States

Quantifying carbon dynamics over large areas is frequently hindered by the lack of consistent, high-quality, spatially explicit land use and land cover change databases and appropriate modeling techniques. In this paper, we present a generic approach to address some of these challenges. Land cover change information in the Southeastern Plains ecoregion was derived from Landsat data acquired in 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 within 11 randomly located 20-km × 20-km sample blocks. Carbon dynamics within each of the sample blocks was simulated using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), capable of assimilating the variances and covariance of major input variables into simulations using an ensemble approach. Results indicate that urban and forest areas have been increasing, whereas agricultural land has been decreasing since 1973. Forest clear-cutting activity has intensified, more than doubling from 1973 to 2000. The Southeastern Plains has been acting as a carbon sink since 1973, with an average rate of 0.89 Mg C/ha/yr. Biomass, soil organic carbon (SOC), and harvested materials account for 56%, 34%, and 10% of the sink, respectively. However, the sink has declined continuously during the same period owing to forest aging in the northern part of the ecoregion and increased forest clear-cutting activities in the south. The relative contributions to the sink from SOC and harvested materials have increased, implying that these components deserve more study in the future. The methods developed here can be used to quantify the impacts of human management activities on the carbon cycle at landscape to global scales.

Environmental Management↗

Western bats as a reservoir of novel Streptomyces species with antifungal activity

At least two-thirds of commercial antibiotics today are derived from Actinobacteria , more specifically from the genus Streptomyces . Antibiotic resistance and new emerging diseases pose great challenges in the field of microbiology. Cave systems, in which actinobacteria are ubiquitous and abundant, represent new opportunities for the discovery of novel bacterial species and the study of their interactions with emergent pathogens. White-nose syndrome is an invasive bat disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans , which has killed more than six million bats in the last 7 years. In this study, we isolated naturally occurring actinobacteria from white-nose syndrome (WNS)-free bats from five cave systems and surface locations in the vicinity in New Mexico and Arizona, USA. We sequenced the 16S rRNA region and tested 632 isolates from 12 different bat species using a bilayer plate method to evaluate antifungal activity. Thirty-six actinobacteria inhibited or stopped the growth of P. destructans , with 32 (88.9%) actinobacteria belonging to the genus Streptomyces . Isolates in the genera Rhodococcus , Streptosporangium , Luteipulveratus , and Nocardiopsis also showed inhibition. Twenty-five of the isolates with antifungal activity against P. destructans represent 15 novel Streptomyces spp. based on multilocus sequence analysis. Our results suggest that bats in western North America caves possess novel bacterial microbiota with the potential to inhibit P. destructans .

Applied and Environmental Microbiology↗

Prevention, early detection and containment of invasive, nonnative plants in the Hawaiian Islands: current efforts and needs

Introduction: Invasive, non-native plants (or environmental weeds) have long been recognized as a major threat to the native biodiversity of oceanic islands (Cronk & Fuller, 1995; Denslow, 2003). Globally, several hundred non-native plant species have been reported to have major impacts on natural areas on oceanic islands (Kueffer et al ., 2009). In Hawaii, at least some 50 non-native plant species reach dominance in natural areas (Kueffer et al ., 2009) and many of them are known to impact ecosystem processes or biodiversity. One example is the invasive Australian tree fern ( Cyathea cooperi ), which has been shown to be very efficient at utilizing soil nitrogen and can grow six times as rapidly in height, maintain four times more fronds, and produce significantly more fertile fronds per month than the native Hawaiian endemic tree ferns, Cibotium spp. (Durand & Goldstein, 2001a, b). Additionally, while native tree ferns provide an ideal substrate for epiphytic growth of many understory ferns and flowering plants, the Australian tree fern has the effect of impoverishing the understory and failing to support an abundance of native epiphytes (Medeiros & Loope, 1993). Other notorious examples of invasive plant species problematic for biodiversity and ecosystem processes in Hawaii include miconia ( Miconia calvescens ), strawberry guava ( Psidium cattleianum ), albizia ( Falcataria moluccana ), firetree ( Morella faya ), clidemia ( Clidemia hirta ), kahili ginger ( Hedychium gardnerianum ), and fountain grass ( Pennisetum setaceum ), to name just a few. Fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) is a recent example of a seriously problematic invasive species for Hawaii’s agriculture and is damaging certain high-elevations native ecosystems as well. The threat of invasive plants has long been recognized in Hawaii and is well documented (e.g. Cox, 1999; Loope & Kraus, 2009 in press; Loope et al ., 2004; Mooney & Drake, 1986; Stone & Scott, 1985; Stone et al. , 1992). In many respects, Hawaii may be near the forefront among national and international efforts to address the burgeoning threat of invasive plants, perhaps especially in the field of outreach and education (Holt, 1996; Van Driesche & Van Driesche, 2000). However, given the scale of the problem many challenges still need to be addressed and gaps in the existing management system need to be identified. In particular, it appears that new non-native plant species are still introduced to the Hawaiian Islands at a high rate with little or no regard for their potential invasiveness. In fact, a Pacific-wide and a global survey of non-native plants on oceanic islands have both shown that on Hawaii among all archipelagos by far the highest number of problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world is already present (Denslow et al . 2009, Kueffer et al . 2009). Hawaii lacks an effective mechanism for tracking what species are present or incoming. For instance, early detection nursery surveys conducted on Maui in 2008 found over 300 species of cultivated vascular plants that have not previously been recorded in Hawaii (Starr et al. , in prep.). In spite of an innovative Hawaii Biological Survey (e.g. Eldredge & Evenhuis, 2003), there is no mechanism for recording presence of a species until it becomes naturalized. Some of these new introductions may quickly become serious pests. Fireweed, first recorded in Hawaii on the Big Island in the early 1980s, is now considered one of the Kueffer & Loope 2009 5/48 worst weeds of pastures and is also invading natural areas from near sea level to above 10,000 feet. Although the cultivated and as yet non-invasive Cortaderia selloana has been present in Hawaii for 50 years or more, the morphologically similar Cortaderia jubata was simultaneously found to be present on Maui and invading on a large scale in 1989. It played an important role in inspiring the establishment of the Maui Invasive Species Committee (MISC) in 1997, and MISC now spends roughly $200,000 per year removing and containing C. jubata to keep it from becoming widespread in high elevation conservation lands of East and West Maui. The existence of many similar examples shows that to date regulatory action to prevent new invasive plant species from establishing and spreading in Hawaii has not yet been as successful as it needs to be. In particular, because some problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world (Kueffer et al ., 2009; Weber, 2003) have not yet been recorded from Hawaii, preventive measures against the introduction and spread of such likely invasive species is therefore an urgent need for Hawaii. Indeed, regulation of importation and early detection and eradication of introduced species before they become abundant and widespread are widely considered the most cost-efficient and often only effective measures against the threat of new invasive species (Kueffer & Hirsch Hadorn, 2008; Wittenberg & Cock, 2001). Timing seems favorable for Hawaii to achieve effective protection against the threat of new invasive species through prevention, early detection, and eradication/containment. Through the establishment and evolution of Invasive Species Committees (ISCs) on each major Hawaiian island, the institutional capacity has been built up for prevention, early detection, containment, and outreach at an island scale. Weed risk assessment (Daehler et al ., 2004) and early detection methodologies (Starr et al. , in review-a, b) have been developed and tested specifically for Hawaii. Containment strategies have been successful (e.g., Special Ecological Areas in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park), and so have eradications of particular species on an island scale (e.g. mullein ( Verbascum thapsus ) and other species on Maui, fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) on Kauai). These successful management strategies may be further strengthened through recently developed novel approaches in research (e.g. remote sensing, species distribution modelling, and molecular genetics tools). Another major recent achievement is the gained support of the plant industry for preventive measures against invasive species (see p. 13ff). Last but not least, regulatory action is also moving forward. Passage of House Bill 2517 by the 2008 Hawaii House and Senate and prompt signing of the bill into law by the Governor provides hope that action to ban the sale of a meaningful suite of restricted weeds can quickly proceed through the rulemaking phase into the implementation phase. This report documents these achievements and experiences and provides a range of perspectives on how to further develop prevention, early detection and containment of invasive species in Hawaii. The report is based on a symposium and workshop held at the 2008 Hawaii Conservation Conference in Honolulu on 31 July 2008.

Hawaii↗

Shale Gas Development and Brook Trout: Scaling Best Management Practices to Anticipate Cumulative Effects

Shale gas development may involve trade-offs between energy development and benefits provided by natural ecosystems. However, current best management practices (BMPs) focus on mitigating localized ecological degradation. We review evidence for cumulative effects of natural gas development on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and conclude that BMPs should account for potential watershed-scale effects in addition to localized influences. The challenge is to develop BMPs in the face of uncertainty in the predicted response of brook trout to landscape-scale disturbance caused by gas extraction. We propose a decision-analysis approach to formulating BMPs in the specific case of relatively undisturbed watersheds where there is consensus to maintain brook trout populations during gas development. The decision analysis was informed by existing empirical models that describe brook trout occupancy responses to landscape disturbance and set bounds on the uncertainty in the predicted responses to shale gas development. The decision analysis showed that a high efficiency of gas development (e.g., 1 well pad per square mile and 7 acres per pad) was critical to achieving a win-win solution characterized by maintaining brook trout and maximizing extraction of available gas. This finding was invariant to uncertainty in predicted response of brook trout to watershed-level disturbance. However, as the efficiency of gas development decreased, the optimal BMP depended on the predicted response, and there was considerable potential value in discriminating among predictive models through adaptive management or research. The proposed decision-analysis framework provides an opportunity to anticipate the cumulative effects of shale gas development, account for uncertainty, and inform management decisions at the appropriate spatial scales.

Environmental Practice↗

Targeting sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) restoration following wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) nest selection and survival models

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Environmental Management↗

Effect of power plant emission reductions on a nearby wilderness area: a case study in northwestern Colorado

This study evaluates the effect of emission reductions at two coal-fired power plants in northwestern Colorado on a nearby wilderness area. Control equipment was installed at both plants during 1999–2004 to reduce SO 2 and NOx emissions. One challenge was separating the effects of local from regional emissions, which also declined during the study period. The long-term datasets examined confirm that emission reductions had a beneficial effect on air and water quality in the wilderness. Despite a 75 % reduction in SO 2 emissions, sulfate aerosols measured in the wilderness decreased by only 20 %. Because the site is relatively close to the power plants (<75 km), the slow rate of conversion of SO 2 to sulfate, particularly under conditions of low relative humidity, might account for this less than one-to-one response. On the clearest days, emissions controls appeared to improve visibility by about 1 deciview, which is a small but perceptible improvement. On the haziest days, however, there was little improvement perhaps reflecting the dominance of regional haze and other components of visibility degradation particularly organic carbon and dust. Sulfate and acidity in atmospheric deposition decreased by 50 % near the southern end of the wilderness of which 60 % was attributed to power plant controls and the remainder to reductions in regional sources. Lake water sulfate responded rapidly to trends in deposition declining at 28 lakes monitored in and near the wilderness. Although no change in the acid–base status was observed, few of the lakes appear to be at risk from chronic or episodic acidification.

Colorado↗

Nitrogen isotopes as indicators of NOx source contributions to atmospheric nitrate deposition across the midwestern and northeastern United States

Global inputs of NO x are dominated by fossil fuel combustion from both stationary and vehicular sources and far exceed natural NO x sources. However, elucidating NO x sources to any given location remains a difficult challenge, despite the need for this information to develop sound regulatory and mitigation strategies. We present results from a regional-scale study of nitrogen isotopes (δ 15 N) in wet nitrate deposition across 33 sites in the midwestern and northeastern U.S. We demonstrate that spatial variations in δ 15 N are strongly correlated with NO x emissions from surrounding stationary sources and additionally that δ 15 N is more strongly correlated with surrounding stationary source NO x emissions than pH, SO 4 2- , or NO 3 - concentrations. Although emission inventories indicate that vehicle emissions are the dominant NO x source in the eastern U.S., our results suggest that wet NO 3 - deposition at sites in this study is strongly associated with NO x emissions from stationary sources. This suggests that large areas of the landscape potentially receive atmospheric NO y deposition inputs in excess of what one would infer from existing monitoring data alone. Moreover, we determined that spatial patterns in δ 15 N values are a robust indicator of stationary NO x contributions to wet NO 3 - deposition and hence a valuable complement to existing tools for assessing relationships between NO 3 - deposition, regional emission inventories, and for evaluating progress toward NO x reduction goals.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Factors affecting sampling strategies for design of an effects‐directed analysis for endocrine‐active chemicals

Effects‐directed analysis (EDA) is an important tool for identifying unknown bioactive components in a complex mixture. Such an analysis of endocrine‐active chemicals (EACs) from water sources has promising regulatory implications but also unique logistical challenges. We propose a conceptual EDA (framework) based on a critical review of EDA literature and concentrations of common EACs in waste and surface waters. Required water volumes for identification of EACs under this EDA framework were estimated based on bioassay performance (in vitro and in vivo bioassays), limits of quantification by mass spectrometry (MS), and EAC water concentrations. Sample volumes for EDA across the EACs showed high variation in the bioassay detectors, with genistein, bisphenol A, and androstenedione requiring very high sample volumes and ethinylestradiol and 17β‐trenbolone requiring low sample volumes. Sample volume based on the MS detector was far less variable across the EACs. The EDA framework equation was rearranged to calculate detector “thresholds,” and these thresholds were compared with the literature EAC water concentrations to evaluate the feasibility of the EDA framework. In the majority of instances, feasibility of the EDA was limited by the bioassay, not MS detection. Mixed model analysis showed that the volumes required for a successful EDA were affected by the potentially responsible EAC, detection methods, and the water source type, with detection method having the greatest effect on the EDA of estrogens and androgens. The EDA framework, equation, and model we present provide a valuable tool for designing a successful EDA.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗