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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2016

The effects of landscape position on plant species density: Evidence of past environmental effects in a coastal wetland

Here we propose that an important cause of variation in species density may be prior environmental conditions that continue to influence current patterns. In this paper we investigated the degree to which species density varies with location within the landscape, independent of contemporaneous environmental conditions. The area studied was a coastal marsh landscape subject to periodic storm events. To evaluate the impact of historical effects, it was assumed that the landscape position of a plot relative to the river's mouth ('distance from sea') and to the edge of a stream channel ('distance from shore') would correlate with the impact of prior storm events, an assumption supported by previous studies. To evaluate the importance of spatial location on species density, data were collected from five sites located at increasing distances from the river's mouth along the Middle Pearl River in Louisiana. At each site, plots were established systematically along transects perpendicular to the shoreline. For each of the 175 Plots, we measured elevation, soil salinity, percent of plot recently disturbed, percent of sunlight captured by the plant canopy (as a measure of plant abundance), and plant species density. Structural equation analysis ascertained the degree to which landscape position variables explained variation in species density that could not be explained by current environmental indicators. Without considering landscape variables, 54% of the variation in species density could be explained by the effects of salinity, flooding, and plant abundance. When landscape variables were included, distance from shore was unimportant but distance from sea explained an additional 12% of the variance in species density (R2 of final model = 66%). Based on these results it appears that at least some of the otherwise unexplained variation in species density can be attributed to landscape position, and presumably previous storm events. We suggest that future studies may gain additional insight into the factors controlling current patterns of species density by examining the effects of position within the landscape.

Écoscience↗
USGS2007

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2011

Geophysical data collected from the St. Clair River between Michigan and Ontario, Canada (2008-016-FA)

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center (WHCMSC), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted a geophysical and sampling survey of the riverbed of the Upper St. Clair River between Port Huron, Mich., and Sarnia, Ontario, Canada. The objectives were to define the Quaternary geologic framework of the riverbed of the St. Clair River to evaluate the relationship between morphologic change of the riverbed and underlying stratigraphy. This report presents the geophysical and sample data collected from the St. Clair River, May 29-June 6, 2008, as part of the International Upper Great Lakes Study, a 5-year project funded by the International Joint Commission of the United States and Canada to examine whether physical changes in the St. Clair River are affecting water levels within upper Great Lakes, to assess regulation plans for outflows from Lake Superior, and to examine the potential effect of climate change on the Great Lakes water levels (http://www.iugls.org). This document makes available the data that were used in a separate report, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2009-1137, which detailed the interpretations of the Quaternary geologic framework of the region. This report includes a description of the high-resolution acoustic and sediment-sampling systems that were used to map the morphology, surficial sediment distribution, and underlying geology of the Upper St. Clair River during USGS field activity 2008-016-FA (http://quashnet.er.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/datasource/public_ds_info.pl?fa=2008-016-FA). Video and photographs of the riverbed were also collected and are included in this data release. Future analyses will be focused on substrate erosion and its effects on river-channel morphology and geometry. Ultimately, the International Upper Great Lakes Study will attempt to determine where physical changes in the St. Clair River affect water flow and, subsequently, water levels in the Upper Great Lakes.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Alaska snowpack response to climate change: Statewide snowfall equivalent and snowpack water scenarios

Climatically driven changes in snow characteristics (snowfall, snowpack, and snowmelt) will affect hydrologic and ecological systems in Alaska over the coming century, yet there exist no projections of downscaled future snow pack metrics for the state of Alaska. We updated historical and projected snow day fraction (PSF, the fraction of days with precipitation falling as snow) from McAfee et al. We developed modeled snowfall equivalent (SFE) derived from the product of snow-day fraction (PSF) and existing gridded precipitation for Alaska from Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP). We validated the assumption that modeled SFE approximates historical decadally averaged snow water equivalent (SWE) observations from snowcourse and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites. We present analyses of future downscaled PSF and two new products, October–March SFE and ratio of snow fall equivalent to precipitation (SFE:P) based on bias-corrected statistically downscaled projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) temperature and precipitation for the state of Alaska. We analyzed mid-century (2040–2069) and late-century (2070–2099) changes in PSF, SFE, and SFE:P relative to historical (1970–1999) mean temperature and present results for Alaska climate divisions and 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC12) watersheds. Overall, estimated historical the SFE is reasonably well related to the observed SWE, with correlations over 0.75 in all decades, and correlations exceeding 0.9 in the 1960s and 1970s. In absolute terms, SFE is generally biased low compared to the observed SWE. PSF and SFE:P decrease universally across Alaska under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with the smallest changes for RCP 4.5 in 2040–2069 and the largest for RCP 8.5 in 2070–2099. The timing and magnitude of maximum decreases in PSF vary considerably with regional average temperature, with the largest changes in months at the beginning and end of the snow season. Mean SFE changes vary widely among climate divisions, ranging from decreases between −17 and −58% for late twenty-first century in southeast, southcentral, west coast and southwest Alaska to increases up to 21% on the North Slope. SFE increases most at highest elevations and latitudes and decreases most in coastal southern Alaska. SFE:P ratios indicate a broad switch from snow-dominated to transitional annual hydrology across most of southern Alaska by mid-century, and from transitional to rain-dominated watersheds in low elevation parts of southeast Alaska by the late twenty-first century.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Archive of single-beam bathymetry data collected during USGS cruise 07CCT01 nearshore of Fort Massachusetts and within Camille Cut, West and East Ship Islands, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi, July 2007

The Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS) is composed of a series of barrier islands along the Mississippi - Alabama coastline. Historically these islands have undergone long-term shoreline change. The devastation of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 prompted questions about the stability of the barrier islands and their potential response to future storm impacts. Additionally, there was concern from the National Park Service (NPS) about the preservation of the historical Fort Massachusetts, located on West Ship Island. During the early 1900s, Ship Island was an individual island. In 1969 Hurricane Camille breached Ship Island, widening the cut and splitting it into what is now known as West Ship Island and East Ship Island. In July of 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was able to provide the NPS with a small bathymetric survey of Camille Cut using high-resolution single-beam bathymetry. This provided GUIS with a post-Katrina assessment of the bathymetry in Camille Cut and along the northern shoreline directly in front of Fort Massachusetts. Ultimately, this survey became an initial bathymetry dataset toward a larger USGS effort included in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project ( http://ngom.usgs.gov/gomsc/mscip/ ). This report serves as an archive of the processed single-beam bathymetry. Data products herein include gridded and interpolated digital depth surfaces and x,y,z data products. Additional files include trackline maps, navigation files, geographic information system (GIS) files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Scanned images of the handwritten FACS logs and digital FACS logs are also provided as PDF files. Refer to the Acronyms page for description of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report or hold the cursor over an acronym for a pop-up explanation. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 07CCT01 tells us the data were collected in 2007 for the Coastal Change and Transport (CCT) study and the data were collected during the first (01) field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. Data were collected using a 26-foot (ft) Glacier Bay catamaran. The single-beam transducers were sled mounted on a rail attached between the catamaran hulls. Navigation was acquired using HYPACK, Inc., Hypack version 4.3a.7.1 and differentially corrected using land-based GPS stations. See the digital FACS equipment log for details about the acquisition equipment used. Raw datasets were stored digitally and processed systematically using NovAtel's Waypoint GrafNav version 7.6, SANDS version 3.7, and ESRI ArcGIS version 9.3.1. For more information on processing refer to the Equipment and Processing page.

Mississippi↗
USGS2026

Tidal wetland inundated volume estimates using L-band radar imagery and synthetic tide gauging

Tidal inundation dynamics are a principal driver of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in coastal ecosystems, controlling the exchange of carbon, nutrients, and sediments between wetlands and estuaries. In this study, we assessed the utility of L-band radar imagery in deriving tidal wetland inundated volume estimates (pixel-wise water depths), which provide a more robust characterization of wetland–estuary exchange processes than the lateral inundation state estimates. Inundation state products derived using L-band radar were combined with digital elevation models (DEMs) and synthetic tide gauging to estimate the volume of inundation. Synthetic tide gauges, models of water level produced from combined short-term field measurements and long-term monitoring stations were employed to provide calibration and validation for satellite observations for times outside of the water level sensor monitoring period (August–December 2018). Ten synthetic gauges were established across the Charles H. Wheeler Wildlife Management Area (Connecticut, USA) in a regular grid and were used to validate the radar-based inundation state and inundated volume products. To generate volumetric inundation estimates from inundation state products, we employed two bathymetric fill approaches using a DEM to constrain water surface elevations. The first approach assumed a constant water elevation fill for all inundated pixels, while the second introduced a maximum water depth constraint. While both approaches showed strong correlations with synthetic gauges, the depth constraint approach was more accurate, increasing R 2 from 0.87 to 0.98 and lowering RMSE from 0.79 m to 0.02 m. In this study, PALSAR-1/2 served as a proxy for the recently launched NISAR mission. Future research is planned to leverage the improved temporal sampling of the NISAR data record, combined with in-marsh water level observations (May 2025–present) and synthetic gauge estimates to improve wetland–estuary volumetric exchange characterization, which we demonstrate can be accurately estimated when paired with high-quality DEMs.

Connecticut↗
USGS2021

Assessing potential stock structure of adult Coho Salmon in a small Alaska watershed: Quantifying run timing, spawning locations, and holding areas with radiotelemetry

Run timing and spatial locations of spawning habitats are often used to identify stocks for conservation planning or management of salmonid fishes. Although complex stock structure is most common within large watersheds with diverse habitats, even small drainages can produce multiple co-occurring spatially or temporally isolated populations or “stocks.” This project sought to address the potential existence of stock structure of Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in a small coastal watershed on Kodiak, Alaska that supports vital subsistence and recreational fisheries and is currently managed as a single stock. We radio-tagged a total of 348 adult Coho Salmon upon freshwater entry into the Buskin River across three spawning seasons (2015–2017) and tracked in-river movements to the final locations where mortality signals were recorded. We identified two primary spawning habitats within the system: main-stem and lake tributaries, with 54% (range of 47% to 61%) of tagged fish with determined fates tracked to main-stem river spawning areas and 46% (range 39% to 53%) presumably spawning in small tributaries of the 1-km 2 Buskin Lake at the headwater of the watershed. Despite distinct spatial differences in spawning locations, main-stem and tributary spawners did not differ in migration timing into freshwater (difference in run timing of main-stem versus tributary spawners = 1 d) nor body size (main-stem mean body length, mideye to tail fork = 625 mm, tributary mean = 613 mm). Unexpectedly, we determined nearly 70% of all Coho Salmon spent at least some time in Buskin Lake, including 54% of main-stem spawners, suggesting a potential role of Buskin Lake as an important staging habitat for premature migrating adult Coho Salmon who enter freshwater in advance of final maturation. We also identified areas consistently used for holding prior to spawning that could be used in spatial management planning and during times of necessary conservation to ensure integrity of the stock for the future.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

It's about time: A multistate semicontinuous time mark–recapture model to evaluate seasonal survival and movement rates of juvenile Coho Salmon in a small coastal watershed

Objective Many mark–recapture models assume that releases and recaptures are discrete events, and researchers often aggregate continuous recapture data (e.g., passive integrated transponder [PIT] detections) into coarse temporal scales to satisfy this assumption. This temporal discretization could result in parameter biases by ignoring the individual heterogeneity in the time susceptible to mortality after recapture and the conditions experienced (e.g., temperature and predation risk) before and after recapture. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the amount of bias in survival and emigration rates due to different temporal discretization durations when recapture events occur continuously and (2) apply this semicontinuous model to estimate rates of early emigration and overwinter survival for Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in a coastal California watershed. Methods We developed a semicontinuous time multistate mark–recapture model to separately estimated emigration and survival rates throughout the year. We used weekly time-varying occasions paired with discrete spatial states and conducted extensive simulation trials to explore potential model bias. We then applied the model to an existing 4-year dataset of Coho Salmon PIT tag detections. Result Our simulations indicated that that the amount of bias in survival and movement rates decreased as the temporal discretization duration decreased. The confidence interval of the bias estimates included zero with a duration of 8 days, indicating that this duration was sufficiently short to model movement and survival. Results from our Coho Salmon analysis suggest that overwinter survival rate ranged from 0.72 to 0.83, which is higher than previous estimates for Coho Salmon in this region. We estimate that a substantial proportion of smaller juveniles (0.21–0.28 annually) move to downstream nonnatal rearing habitats before the spring smolt migration. Conclusion Our semicontinuous modeling approach can be implemented relatively easily and used to analyze continuous detection data to accurately estimate survival and movement rates. Our analysis of Coho Salmon PIT tag detections implies that previous low estimates of apparent overwinter survival of Coho Salmon were partially due to high movement rates to alternative rearing locations. This contrasts with conclusions from the previous research that suggested that overwinter survival was a major limiting factor for population recovery and implies that species recovery may be improved by considering multiple emigration patterns in the design of future research, monitoring, and restoration projects.

California↗
USGS2009

Evaluation of a gastric radio tag insertion technique for anadromous river herring

Anadromous river herring (alewives Alosa pseudoharengus and blueback herring A. aestivalis ), which constitute a historically and ecologically important component of coastal rivers, have declined precipitously throughout the Atlantic seaboard. Suggested causes of river herring decline include commercial fishing and predation by striped bass Morone saxatilis . Although the causes of this recent trend are poorly understood, river herring are especially vulnerable to adverse impacts during their spring spawning migration. Radiotelemetry is an especially useful method for addressing potential problems encountered during the movement of these fish from the ocean to freshwater. In spite of frequent calls for evaluation of telemetry methods, controlled tests of posttagging effects are rare for alosids and virtually nonexistent for anadromous river herring. We developed a protocol for gastric tagging of anadromous river herring, and we used hatchery and field studies to evaluate behavior, tag placement, stress response, and posttagging mortality. We also compared tagger effects and quantified posttagging upstream movements of fish in the field. In controlled hatchery trials, no fish died at 10 min, 1 h, or 14 d posttagging. No tags were rejected, and only 1 of 35 tags ruptured the gut. In field cages, mortality, plasma cortisol, glucose, and chloride measured at 24 h were similar between tagged and untagged fish. In the field, 12 of 14 fish moved upriver after tagging and spent 114 h on average at upriver sites. Using a variety of approaches, we found no evidence that our tagging protocol adversely affected river herring in comparison with untagged fish that were subjected only to handling and holding. Our protocol, evaluated by comparing responses of tagged and untagged fish under controlled conditions, may be useful in future studies that seek to understand causes of decline for anadromous river herring.

Massachuetts↗
USGS2016

Evaluation of nutria (Myocastor coypus) detection methods in Maryland, USA

Nutria ( Myocaster coypus ), invasive, semi-aquatic rodents native to South America, were introduced into Maryland near Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR) in 1943. Irruptive population growth, expansion, and destructive feeding habits resulted in the destruction of thousands of acres of emergent marshes at and surrounding BNWR. In 2002, a partnership of federal, state and private entities initiated an eradication campaign to protect remaining wetlands from further damage and facilitate the restoration of coastal wetlands throughout the Chesapeake Bay region. Program staff removed nearly 14,000 nutria from five infested watersheds in a systematic trapping and hunting program between 2002 and 2014. As part of ongoing surveillance activities, the Chesapeake Bay Nutria Eradication Project uses a variety of tools to detect and remove nutria. Project staff developed a floating raft, or monitoring platform, to determine site occupancy. These platforms are placed along waterways and checked periodically for evidence of nutria visitation. We evaluated the effectiveness of monitoring platforms and three associated detection methods: hair snares, presence of scat, and trail cameras. Our objectives were to (1) determine if platform placement on land or water influenced nutria visitation rates, (2) determine if the presence of hair snares influenced visitation rates, and (3) determine method-specific detection probabilities. Our analyses indicated that platforms placed on land were 1.5–3.0 times more likely to be visited than those placed in water and that platforms without snares were an estimated 1.7–3.7 times more likely to be visited than those with snares. Although the presence of snares appears to have discouraged visitation, seasonal variation may confound interpretation of these results. Scat was the least effective method of determining nutria visitation, while hair snares were as effective as cameras. Estimated detection probabilities provided by occupancy modeling were 0.73 for hair snares, 0.71 for cameras and 0.40 for scat. We recommend the use of hair snares on monitoring platforms as they are the most cost-effective and reliable detection method available at this time. Future research should focus on determining the cause for the observed decrease in nutria visits after snares were applied.

Maryland↗
USGS1982

Modern sedimentary environments on the Rhode Island inner shelf, off the eastern United States

Analyses of side-scan sonar records along with previously published bathymetric, textural and subbottom data reveal the sedimentary environments on the inner Continental Shelf south of Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island. The bottom topography in this area is characterized by a broad central depression bordered by shallow, irregular sea floor on the north and east and by a discontinuous, curvilinear ridge on the south and west. Four distinct environments were identified: (1) Pre-Mesozoic coastal rocks are exposed on the sea floor at isolated locations near the shore (waterdepths < 32 m). These exposures have pronounced, irregular topographic relief and produce blotchy patterns op side-scan sonographs. (2) Glacial moraine deposits form the discontinuous offshore ridge. These deposits have hummocky sea-floor relief, are covered by lag gravel and boulders, and appear as predominantly black (strongly reflective) patterns on the side-scan records. (3) Over most of the shallow, irregular bottom in the northeast, on the flanks of the morainal ridge, and atop bathymetric highs, the sea floor is characterized as a mosaic of light and dark patches and lineations. The dark (more reflective) zones are areas of coarse sands and megaripples (wavelengths = 0.8--1.2 m) that either have no detectable relief or are slightly depressed relative to surrounding (fight) areas of finer-grained sands. (4) Smooth beds that produce nearly featureless patterns on the sonographs occupy the broad central bathymetric depression as well as smaller depressions north and east of Block Island. Within the broad depression, sonographs having practically no shading indicate a central zone of modern sandy silt, whereas records having moderate tonality define a peripheral belt of silty sand. The sedimentary environments that are outlined range from erosional or nondepositional (bedrock, glacial moraine) to depositional (featureless beds), and include areas that may reflect a combination of erosional and depositional processes (textural patchiness). The distribution and characteristics of the environments reveal the general post-glacial sedimentary history of this area and provide a guide to future utilization of the shelf surface.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2019

The 30 November 2018 Mw7.1 Anchorage Earthquake

The M w "> M w 7.1 47 km deep earthquake that occurred on 30 November 2018 had deep societal impacts across southcentral Alaska and exhibited phenomena of broad scientific interest. We document observations that point to future directions of research and hazard mitigation. The rupture mechanism, aftershocks, and deformation of the mainshock are consistent with extension inside the Pacific plate near the down‐dip limit of flat‐slab subduction. Peak ground motions &gt; 25 % g "> g >25%g were observed across more than 8000 &#x2009;&#x2009; km 2 "> 8000 km 2 ⁠ , though the most violent near‐fault shaking was avoided because the hypocenter was nearly 50 km below the surface. The ground motions show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of regional geology and near‐surface soil conditions. Aftershock activity was vigorous with roughly 300 felt events in the first six months, including two dozen aftershocks exceeding M 4.5. Broad subsidence of up to 5 cm across the region is consistent with the rupture mechanism. The passage of seismic waves and possibly the coseismic subsidence mobilized ground waters, resulting in temporary increases in stream flow. Although there were many failures of natural slopes and soils, the shaking was insufficient to reactivate many of the failures observed during the 1964 M 9.2 earthquake. This is explained by the much shorter duration of shaking as well as the lower amplitude long‐period motions in 2018. The majority of observed soil failures were in anthropogenically placed fill soils. Structural damage is attributed to both the failure of these emplaced soils as well as to the ground motion, which shows some spatial correlation to damage. However, the paucity of instrumental ground‐motion recordings outside of downtown Anchorage makes these comparisons challenging. The earthquake demonstrated the challenge of issuing tsunami warnings in complex coastal geographies and highlights the need for a targeted tsunami hazard evaluation of the region. The event also demonstrates the challenge of estimating the probabilistic hazard posed by intraslab earthquakes.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Bank erosion of navigation canals in the western and central Gulf of Mexico

Erosion of navigation canal banks is a direct cause of land loss, but there has been little quantitative analysis to determine why certain major canals exhibit faster widening rates (indicative of erosion) than others in the coastal zones of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. We hypothesize that navigation canals exhibit varying rates of erosion based on soil properties of the embankment substrate, vegetation type, geologic region (derived from digital versions of state geologic maps), and the presence or absence of canal bank armaments (that is, rock rip-rap, concrete bulkheads, or other shoreline protection structures). The first objective of this project was to map the shoreline position and substrate along both banks of the navigation canals, which were digitized from 3 different time periods of aerial photography spanning the years of 1978/79 to 2005/06. The second objective was to quantify the erosion rates of the navigation canals in the study area and to determine whether differences in erosion rates are related to embankment substrate, vegetation type, geologic region, or soil type. To measure changes in shoreline position over time, transects spaced at 50-m (164-ft) intervals were intersected with shorelines from all three time periods, and an annual rate of change was calculated for each transect. Mean annual rates of shoreline change ranged from 1.75 m/year (5.74 ft/year) on the west side of the Atchafalaya River, La., where there was shoreline advancement or canal narrowing, to -3.29 m/year (-10.79 ft/year) on the south side of the Theodore Ship Channel, Ala., where there was shoreline retreat or erosion. Statistical analysis indicated that there were significant differences in shoreline retreat rates according to geologic region and marsh vegetation type, and a weak relationship with soil organic content. This information can be used to better estimate future land loss rates associated with navigation canals and to prioritize the location of restoration and erosion mitigation efforts. Combining all canals together, our results also showed that canal erosion rates have slowed in recent years, with an average canal widening rate of -0.99 m/year (-3.25 ft/year) for the 1996/98-2005/06 time period compared to -1.71 m/year (-5.61 ft/year) for the earlier 1978/79-1996/98 time period. Future research could focus on obtaining detailed vessel traffic information for individual canals, which is likely a factor that influences canal bank erosion rates.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Multiple edifice-collapse events in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt: The role of sloping substrate and implications for hazard assessment

The Citlalte??petl-Cofre de Perote volcanic chain forms an important physiographic barrier that separates the Central Altiplano (2500??masl) from the Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP) (1300??masl). The abrupt eastward drop in relief between these provinces gives rise to unstable conditions and consequent gravitational collapse of large volcanic edifices built at the edge of the Altiplano. Eastward sloping substrate, caused by the irregular configuration of the basement rocks, is the dominant factor that controls the direction of collapsing sectors in all major volcanoes in the region to be preferentially towards the GCP. These collapses produced voluminous debris avalanches and lahars that inundated the well-developed drainages and clastic aprons that characterize the Coastal Plain. Large catastrophic collapses from Citlalte??petl, Las Cumbres, and Cofre de Perote volcanoes are well documented in the geologic record. Some of the avalanches and transformed flows have exceptionally long runouts and reach the Gulf of Mexico traveling more than 120??km from their source. So far, no direct evidence has been found for magmatic activity associated with the initiation of these catastrophic flank-collapses. Apparently, instability of the volcanic edifices has been strongly favored by very intense hydrothermal alteration, abrupt topographic change, and intense fracturing. In addition to the eastward slope of the substrate, the reactivation of pre-volcanic basement structures during the Late Tertiary, and the E-W to ENE-SSW oriented regional stress regimes may have played an important role in the preferential movement direction of the avalanches and flows. In addition to magmatic-hydrothermal processes, high amounts of rainfall in the area is another factor that enhances alteration and eventually weakens the rocks. It is very likely that seismic activity may be the principal triggering mechanism that caused the flank collapse of large volcanic edifices in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt. However, critical pore water pressure from extraordinary amounts of rainfall associated with hurricanes or other meteorological perturbation cannot be ruled out, particularly for smaller volume collapses. There are examples in the area of small seismogenic debris flows that have occurred in historical times, showing that these processes are not uncommon. Assessing the stability conditions of major volcanic edifices that have experienced catastrophic sector collapses is crucial for forecasting future events. This is particularly true for the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt, where in many cases no magmatic activity was associated with the collapse. Therefore, edifice failure could occur again without any precursory warning. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2021

Impact of SST and surface waves on Hurricane Florence (2018): A coupled modeling investigation

Hurricane Florence (2018) devastated the coastal communities of the Carolinas through heavy rainfall that resulted in massive flooding. Florence was characterized by an abrupt reduction in intensity (Saffir-Simpson Category 4 to Category 1) just prior to landfall and synoptic-scale interactions that stalled the storm over the Carolinas for several days. We conducted a series of numerical modeling experiments in coupled and uncoupled configurations to examine the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean waves on storm characteristics. In addition to experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model, we introduced the capability of the atmospheric model to modulate wind stress and surface fluxes by oceanwaves through data from an uncoupled wave model. We examined these experiments by comparing track, intensity, strength, SST, storm structure, wave height, surface roughness, heat fluxes, and precipitation in order to determine the impacts of resolving ocean conditions with varying degrees of coupling. We found differences in the storm’s intensity and strength, with the best correlation coefficient of intensity (r=0.89) and strength (r=0.95) coming from the fully-coupled simulations. Further analysis into surface roughness parameterizations added to the atmospheric model revealed differences in the spatial distribution and magnitude of the largest roughness lengths. Adding ocean andwave features to the model further modified the fluxes due to more realistic cooling beneath the stormwhich in turn modified the precipitation field. Our experiments highlight significant differences in how air-sea processes impact hurricane modeling. The storm characteristics of track, intensity, strength, and precipitation at landfall are crucial to predictability and forecasting of future landfalling hurricanes.

Weather and Forecasting↗
USGS2015

Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to winter climate extremes

In subtropical coastal wetlands on multiple continents, climate change-induced reductions in the frequency and intensity of freezing temperatures are expected to lead to the expansion of woody plants (i.e., mangrove forests) at the expense of tidal grasslands (i.e., salt marshes). Since some ecosystem goods and services would be affected by mangrove range expansion, there is a need to better understand mangrove sensitivity to freezing temperatures as well as the implications of changing winter climate extremes for mangrove-salt marsh interactions. In this study, we investigated the following questions: (1) how does plant life stage (i.e., ontogeny) influence the resistance and resilience of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) forests to freezing temperatures; and (2) how might differential life stage responses to freeze events affect the rate of mangrove expansion and salt marsh displacement due to climate change? To address these questions, we quantified freeze damage and recovery for different life stages (seedling, short tree, and tall tree) following extreme winter air temperature events that occurred near the northern range limit of A. germinans in North America. We found that life stage affects black mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes in a nonlinear fashion. Resistance to winter climate extremes was high for tall A. germinans trees and seedlings, but lowest for short trees. Resilience was highest for tall A. germinans trees. These results suggest the presence of positive feedbacks and indicate that climate-change induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme minimum air temperatures could lead to a nonlinear increase in mangrove forest resistance and resilience. This feedback could accelerate future mangrove expansion and salt marsh loss at rates beyond what would be predicted from climate change alone. In general terms, our study highlights the importance of accounting for differential life stage responses and positive feedbacks when evaluating the ecological effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes.

Louisiana↗
USGS2017

Human interactions with sirenians (manatees and dugongs)

There are three extant sirenian species of the Trichechidae family and one living Dugongidae family member. Given their close ties to coastal and often urbanized habitats, sirenians are exposed to many types of anthropogenic activities that result in challenges to their well-being, poor health, and even death. In the wild, they are exposed to direct and indirect local pressures as well as subject to large-scale stressors such as global climate change acting on regions or entire genetic stocks. In captivity, they are subject to husbandry and management practices based on our collective knowledge, or in some cases lack thereof, of their needs and welfare. It is therefore reasonable to consider that their current imperiled status is very closely linked to our actions. In this chapter, we identify and define human interactions that may impact dugongs and manatees, including hunting, fisheries, boat interactions, negative interactions with man-made structures, disease and contaminants, and global climate change. We examine techniques used to investigate these impacts and the influence of sirenian biology and of changing human behaviors on potential outcomes. We examine how this differs for dugongs and manatees in the wild and for those held in captivity. Finally, we provide possible mitigation strategies and ways to assess the efforts we are making to improve the welfare of individuals and to conserve these species. This chapter identifies how the welfare of these species is intrinsically linked to the human interactions these animals experience, and how the nature of these interactions has changed with societal shifts. We proffer suggested ways to minimize negative impacts. Current knowledge should be used to minimize negative human interactions and impacts, to promote positive impacts, and to protect these animals for the future.

Book chapter↗