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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Recent extreme avalanches: Triggered by climate change?

On 25 September 2008, seismo meters operated by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) registered strong ground shaking. On the basis of previous experience with such large seismic signals, AVO personnel were able to rapidly identify the seismic event as an avalanche. Two days later, an AVO overflight of Iliamna volcano, near Alaska's Cook Inlet, confirmed that a massive chunk of glacial ice and rock had broken free from its position on the upper flanks of the volcano, generating a massive avalanche that could have buried an entire town had it occurred in a more populated area. Rapidly moving rock, ice, or debris avalanches, such as the one that occurred on Iliamna, can be highly destructive and deadly. Similar events have caused the deaths of hundreds to thousands of people [ Keefer and Larsen, 2007]. In general, avalanches that move more than 1 million cubic meters of material are rare. However, a remarkable series of large avalanches recently occurred in Alaska and the Caucasus, providing a new opportunity to better understand this type of hazard. All events initiated in steep mountain slopes, involved rock and significant amounts of ice, and traveled for 10–35 kilometers.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2009

Suspended sediment and carbonate transport in the Yukon River Basin, Alaska: Fluxes and potential future responses to climate change

Loads and yields of suspended sediment and carbonate were measured and modeled at three locations on the Yukon, Tanana, and Porcupine Rivers in Alaska during water years 2001–2005 (1 October 2000 to 30 September 2005). Annual export of suspended sediment and carbonate upstream from the Yukon Delta averaged 68 Mt a −1 and 387 Gg a −1 , respectively, with 50% of the suspended sediment load originating in the Tanana River Basin and 88% of the carbonate load originating in the White River Basin. About half the annual suspended sediment export occurred during spring, and half occurred during summer‐autumn, with very little export in winter. On average, a minimum of 11 Mt a −1 of suspended sediment is deposited in floodplains between Eagle, Alaska, and Pilot Station, Alaska, on an annual basis, mostly in the Yukon Flats. There is about a 27% loss in the carbonate load between Eagle and Yukon River near Stevens Village, with an additional loss of about 29% between Stevens Village and Pilot Station, owing to a combination of deposition and dissolution. Comparison of current and historical suspended sediment loads for Tanana River suggests a possible link between suspended sediment yield and the Pacific decadal oscillation.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2020

The future of sediment transport and streamflow under a changing climate and the implications for long-term resilience of the San Francisco Bay-Delta

Sedimentation and turbidity have effects on habitat suitability in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta (Bay‐Delta), concerning key species in the bay as well as the ability of the delta marshes to keep pace with sea level rise. A daily rainfall runoff and transport model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the Bay‐Delta for the next century (water years, WY2010–2099). The model was calibrated to historical streamflow and sediment data and applied using 10 Global Climate Models with two representative concentration pathways (RCP) each for WY1980–2099 from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Results indicate average increases in peak streamflow of +58% and +66% for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles, respectively, by mid‐century and +62 and +96% by end‐of‐century. Sediment loads increased by +39% and +69% by end‐of‐century. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) increased on average by +4.6% and +6.7% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by end‐of‐century. Individual scenario results varied, and statistically significant increasing trends of sediment loads to the Bay‐Delta were found for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles and five individual scenarios. Increased suspended sediment loads may have negative effects such as contaminant transport but also have positive effects that help protect against sea level rise, increase turbidity and fish habitat, and sustain wetland habitats in the Bay‐Delta.

California↗
USGS2017

Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils

Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2017

Projecting impacts of climate change on water availability using artificial neural network techniques

Lago Loíza reservoir in east-central Puerto Rico is one of the primary sources of public water supply for the San Juan metropolitan area. To evaluate and predict the Lago Loíza water budget, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is trained to predict river inflows. A method is developed to combine ANN-predicted daily flows with ANN-predicted 30-day cumulative flows to improve flow estimates. The ANN application trains well for representing 2007–2012 and the drier 1994–1997 periods. Rainfall data downscaled from global circulation model (GCM) simulations are used to predict 2050–2055 conditions. Evapotranspiration is estimated with the Hargreaves equation using minimum and maximum air temperatures from the downscaled GCM data. These simulated 2050–2055 river flows are input to a water budget formulation for the Lago Loíza reservoir for comparison with 2007–2012. The ANN scenarios require far less computational effort than a numerical model application, yet produce results with sufficient accuracy to evaluate and compare hydrologic scenarios. This hydrologic tool will be useful for future evaluations of the Lago Loíza reservoir and water supply to the San Juan metropolitan area.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2019

Cloud cover and delayed herbivory relative to timing of spring onset interact to dampen climate change impacts on net ecosystem exchange in a coastal Alaskan wetland

Rapid warming in northern ecosystems over the past four decades has resulted in earlier spring, increased precipitation, and altered timing of plant–animal interactions, such as herbivory. Advanced spring phenology can lead to longer growing seasons and increased carbon (C) uptake. Greater precipitation coincides with greater cloud cover possibly suppressing photosynthesis. Timing of herbivory relative to spring phenology influences plant biomass. None of these changes are mutually exclusive and their interactions could lead to unexpected consequences for Arctic ecosystem function. We examined the influence of advanced spring phenology, cloud cover, and timing of grazing on C exchange in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of western Alaska for three years. We combined advancement of the growing season using passive-warming open-top chambers (OTC) with controlled timing of goose grazing (early, typical, and late season) and removal of grazing. We also monitored natural variation in incident sunlight to examine the C exchange consequences of these interacting forcings. We monitored net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE) hourly using an autochamber system. Data were used to construct daily light curves for each experimental plot and sunlight data coupled with a clear-sky model was used to quantify daily and seasonal NEE over a range of incident sunlight conditions. Cloudy days resulted in the largest suppression of NEE, reducing C uptake by approximately 2 g C m −2 d −1 regardless of the timing of the season or timing of grazing. Delaying grazing enhanced C uptake by approximately 3 g C m −2 d −1 . Advancing spring phenology reduced C uptake by approximately 1.5 g C m −2 d −1 , but only when plots were directly warmed by the OTCs; spring advancement did not have a long-term influence on NEE. Consequently, the two strongest drivers of NEE, cloud cover and grazing, can have opposing effects and thus future growing season NEE will depend on the magnitude of change in timing of grazing and incident sunlight.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Den phenology and reproductive success of polar bears in a changing climate

Synchrony between reproduction and food availability is important in mammals due to the high energetic costs of gestation and lactation. Female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) must accumulate sufficient energy reserves during spring through autumn to produce and nurse cubs during the winter months in snow dens. Adequate time in a den is important to optimize cub development for withstanding harsh Arctic spring conditions and to synchronize emergence with peak prey availability, which occurs in May and June. During 1985–2013, den phenology was investigated using temperature data collected on satellite collars deployed on adult female polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS). We examined relationships between den phenology, reproductive success (cub production and post-emergence survival), and environmental factors (weather and sea-ice conditions). Females observed with cubs emerged later and remained in dens on average 15.0 ± 7.6 ( SE ) days longer than females seen without cubs. Females occupying land-based dens, where estimated snowfall was greater, had higher reproductive success. Recently, female polar bears have increased land-based denning in the SB. Females in CS emerged later from dens than SB females, consistent with better female body condition and higher cub survival in the CS. During years with a greater area of autumn sea ice, reproductive success was higher at land-based versus sea-ice dens, suggesting continued decline in sea ice could negatively affect recruitment. However, further research is needed to better understand mechanistic relationships. Because females emerging later from dens had higher reproductive success, den duration could be a useful metric in population monitoring.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2007

Variations in northern Sierra Nevada streamflow. Implications of climate change

Historical records of streamflow for an eastward- and a westward-draining stream in the northern Sierra Nevada have been analyzed for evidence of changes in runoff characteristics and patterns of variability. A trend of increasing and more variable winter streamflow began in the mid-1960s. Mean monthly streamflow during December through March was substantially greater for water years 1965-1990 compared to water years 1939-1964. Increased winter and early-spring streamflow during the later period is attributed to small increases in temperature, which increase the rain-to-snow ratio at lower altitudes and cause the snowpack to melt earlier in the season at higher altitudes. The timing of snowmelt runoff on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada is more sensitive than it is on the eastern slope to changes in temperature, owing to predominantly lower altitudes on the west side. This difference in sensitivity suggests that basins on the east side of the Sierra Nevada have a more reliable water supply (as snow storage) than western-slope basins during warming trends.

Water Resources Bulletin↗
USGS2013

A multilocus evaluation of ermine ( Mustela erminea ) across the Holarctic, testing hypotheses of Pleistocene diversification in response to climate change

Aim: We examined data for ermine (Mustela erminea) to test two sets of diversification hypotheses concerning the number and location of late Pleistocene refugia, the timing and mode of diversification, and the evolutionary influence of insularization. Location: Temperate and sub-Arctic Northern Hemisphere. Methods: We used up to two mitochondrial and four nuclear loci from 237 specimens for statistical phylogeographical and demographic analyses. Coalescent species-tree estimation used a Bayesian approach for clade divergence based on external mutation rate calibrations. Approximate Bayesian methods were used to assess population size, timing of divergence and gene flow. Results: Limited structure coupled with evidence of population growth across broad regions, including previously ice-covered areas, indicated expansion from multiple centres of differentiation, but high endemism along the North Pacific coast (NPC). A bifurcating model of diversification with recent growth spanning three glacial cycles best explained the empirical data. Main conclusions: A newly identified clade in North America indicated a fourth refugial area for ermine. The shallow coalescence of all extant ermine reflects a recent history of diversification overlying a deeper fossil record. Post-glacial colonization has led to potential contact zones for multiple lineages in north-western North America. A model of diversification of ermine accompanied by recent gene flow was marginally less well supported than a model of divergence of major clades in response to the most recent glacial cycles.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS1997

A diatom-based paleohydrologic record of climate change for the past 800 k.y. from Owens Lake, California

A 323-m (~800 k.y.) core of lake deposits beneath Owens Lake playa, Inyo County, California, contains a nearly continuous paleolimnological record based on diatom assemblages. The core chronology is anchored by the Matuyama/Brunhes magnetostratigraphic boundary and the Bishop ash near the base of the record and by radiocarbon dates near the top. Throughout most of its history, Owens Lake was characterized by fresh-water diatoms, indicating a positive hydrologic input from the Owens River and overflow to lake systems downstream. Both benthic and planktic freshwater diatoms dominate in ashy and sandy sediments between 800 ka and 440 ka and suggest shallow, open-water environments in a basin where sedimentation and subsidence were approximately balanced. After 440 ka, freshwater planktic diatoms dominate, implying that the Owens basin became deeper, perhaps as a result of increased rates of tectonic subsidence. The stratigraphic distribution of saline benthic and planktic diatoms record comparatively short intervals when the lake was shallow and saline. Nevertheless, periodic overflow during these times prevented deposition of evaporites. According to a chronology based on sediment mass-accumulation rates, the alternation of saline and freshwater diatom assemblages approximately tracks the progression of oxygen isotope stages recorded in marine deposits. Even-numbered isotope stages representing glacial conditions are matched by episodes where freshwater planktic diatoms dominate, indicating abundant precipitation in the Sierra Nevada in response to a southward shift of storm tracks originating in the North Pacific around the Aleutian Low.

California↗
USGS2014

Influence of climate change on productivity of American White Pelicans, Pelecanus erythrorhynchos

In the past decade, severe weather and West Nile virus were major causes of chick mortality at American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) colonies in the northern plains of North America. At one of these colonies, Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge in North Dakota, spring arrival by pelicans has advanced approximately 16 days over a period of 44 years (1965–2008). We examined phenology patterns of pelicans and timing of inclement weather through the 44-year period, and evaluated the consequence of earlier breeding relative to weather-related chick mortality. We found severe weather patterns to be random through time, rather than concurrently shifting with the advanced arrival of pelicans. In recent years, if nest initiations had followed the phenology patterns of 1965 (i.e., nesting initiated 16 days later), fewer chicks likely would have died from weather-related causes. That is, there would be fewer chicks exposed to severe weather during a vulnerable transition period that occurs between the stage when chicks are being brooded by adults and the stage when chicks from multiple nests become part of a thermally protective crèche.

North Dakota↗