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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free‐air, open‐field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer‐term sustained warming.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2016

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

Torne River, Lake Suwa↗
USGS2019

Ecological consequences of anomalies in atmospheric moisture and snowpack

Although increased frequency of extreme‐weather events is one of the most secure predictions associated with contemporary climate change, effects of such events on distribution and abundance of climate‐sensitive species remain poorly understood. Montane ecosystems may be especially sensitive to extreme weather because of complex abiotic and biotic interactions that propagate from climate‐driven reductions in snowpack. Snowpack not only protects subnivean biotas from extreme cold, but also influences forage availability through timing of melt‐off and water availability. We related relative abundances of an alpine mammal, the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ), to measures of weather and snowpack dynamics over an 8‐yr period that included before and after a year of record‐low snowpack in Washington, USA. We sought to (1) quantify any change in pika abundance associated with the snowpack anomaly and (2) identify aspects of weather and snowpack that influenced abundance of pikas. Pikas showed a 1‐yr lag response to the snowpack anomaly and exhibited marked declines in abundance at elevations below 1,400 m simultaneous with increased abundances at higher elevations. Atmospheric moisture, indexed by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), was especially important, evidenced by strong support for the top‐ranked model that included the interaction of VPD with snowpack duration. Notably, our novel application of VPD from gridded climate data for analyses of animal abundances shows strong potential for improving species distribution models because VPD represents an important aspect of weather that influences the physiology and habitat of biota. Pikas were apparently affected by cold stress without snowpack at mid elevations, whereas changes to forage associated with snowpack and VPD were influential at high and low elevations. Our results reveal context dependency in pika responses to weather and illustrate how snow drought can lead to rapid change in the abundance of subnivean animals.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Interaction between watershed features and climate forcing affects habitat profitability for juvenile salmon

Opportunities for growth and survival of aquatic organisms are spatially and temporally variable as habitat conditions across watersheds respond to interacting climatic, geomorphic, and hydrologic conditions. As conservation efforts often focus on identifying and protecting critical habitats, it is important to understand how this spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality affects the production dynamics of populations. Here, we use microchemical records preserved in otoliths to reconstruct juvenile habitat‐use by sockeye salmon that survived to spawn in a single population on the Alaska Peninsula. Successful individuals demonstrated a diverse array of juvenile behavioral strategies both within and among years. Importantly, the dominant juvenile behavioral strategy used by successful individuals changed among years, suggesting shifts in the relative benefits of different rearing habitats. The growth benefits of remaining in a more productive rearing lake were greatest in warm years indicating environmental influence on relative habitat quality. However, we found no strong relationship between the amount of growth accumulated in the productive rearing lake and overall population productivity across years. These results highlight the dynamic nature of habitat conditions and the beneficial effect of maintaining connectivity between diverse habitats for population productivity. When short‐term studies are used to demonstrate the relative values of different habitats to species of conservation concern, there is a distinct risk of under‐valuing habitats that may be critically important under alternative environmental conditions. In particular, land‐use decisions that reduce the range of habitat options available to species may erode a population’s ability to withstand environmental change over the long term.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Submerged aquatic vegetation mapping in coastal Louisiana through development of a spatial likelihood occurrence (SLOO) model

Determining the spatial distribution of coastal foundation species is essential to accurately determine restoration goals, predict the ecological effects of climate change, and develop habitat management strategies. Mapping the distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) species assemblages, which provide important habitat resource and ecological services in Louisiana, has been difficult due to the dynamic nature of SAV occurrence and the limited water clarity across much of the coast. Species distribution models (SDMs) link ecological conditions species occurrence across landscapes, and can predict the distribution of species across un-sampled or hard to sample areas and support the development of habitat maps. To predict SAV distribution in coastal Louisiana, a SDM was developed and projected across the landscape to create a spatial likelihood of occurrence (SLOO) model describing the probability of SAV presence in aquatic habitats. SAV presence and absence data were examined from over 500 field observations in relation to physical and hydrologic variables, including exposure, turbidity, water level, and salinity. A binary logistic regression model (p < 0.0001) identified three significant predictors of SAV presence: mean winter salinity, exposure, and turbidity. As each of these variables increased, the probability of SAV presence in the summer growing season decreased. The spatial application of this SDM helps to predict the likelihood of occurrence across the coastal landscape, creating a valuable tool to describe un-sampled SAV habitat and estimate future changes in habitat availability.

Louisiana↗
USGS2009

Mercury cycling in stream ecosystems. 3. Trophic dynamics and methylmercury bioaccumulation

Trophic dynamics (community composition and feeding relationships) have been identified as important drivers of methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in lakes, reservoirs, and marine ecosystems. The relative importance of trophic dynamics and geochemical controls on MeHg bioaccumulation in streams, however, remains poorly characterized. MeHg bioaccumulation was evaluated in eight stream ecosystems across the United States (Oregon, Wisconsin, and Florida) spanning large ranges in climate, landscape characteristics, atmospheric Hg deposition, and stream chemistry. Across all geographic regions and all streams, concentrations of total Hg (THg) in top predator fish and forage fish, and MeHg in invertebrates, were strongly positively correlated to concentrations of filtered THg (FTHg), filtered MeHg (FMeHg), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC); to DOC complexity (as measured by specific ultraviolet absorbance); and to percent wetland in the stream basins. Correlations were strongest for nonurban streams. Although regressions of log[Hg] versus δ 15 N indicate that Hg in biota increased significantly with increasing trophic position within seven of eight individual streams, Hg concentrations in top predator fish (including cutthroat, rainbow, and brown trout; green sunfish; and largemouth bass) were not strongly influenced by differences in relative trophic position. Slopes of log[Hg] versus δ 15 N, an indicator of the efficiency of trophic enrichment, ranged from 0.14 to 0.27 for all streams. These data suggest that, across the large ranges in FTHg (0.14−14.2 ng L −1 ), FMeHg (0.023−1.03 ng L −1 ), and DOC (0.50−61.0 mg L −1 ) found in this study, Hg contamination in top predator fish in streams likely is dominated by the amount of MeHg available for uptake at the base of the food web rather than by differences in the trophic position of top predator fish.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2023

Paired Air and Stream Temperature Analysis (PASTA) to evaluate groundwater influence on streams

Groundwater is critical for maintaining stream baseflow and thermal stability; however, the influence of groundwater on streamflow has been difficult to evaluate at broad spatial scales. Techniques such as baseflow separation necessitate streamflow records and do not directly indicate whether groundwater inflow may be sourced from more dynamic shallow flowpaths. We present a web tool application PASTA (Paired Air and Stream Temperature Analysis; https://cuahsi.shinyapps.io/pasta/ ) that capitalizes on increased public stream temperature data availability and large-scale, gridded climate observations to provide new and efficient insights regarding relative groundwater influence on streams. PASTA analyzes paired air and stream water temperature signals to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns in stream thermal sensitivity and relative groundwater influence, including inference regarding the dominant source groundwater depth (shallow or deep (i.e., approximately >6 m depth)). The tool is linked to publicly available stream temperature datasets and accepts user-uploaded datasets. As local air temperature is not often monitored, PASTA pulls daily air temperature data from the comprehensive Daymet products when directly measured data are unavailable, allowing the repurposing of existing stream temperature data. After data are selected or uploaded, the tool (a) fits sinusoidal curves of daily stream and air temperatures by year (water or calendar) to indicate groundwater influence characteristics and (b) performs linear regressions for stream versus air temperatures to indicate stream thermal sensitivity. Results are exported in ASCII file format, creating an efficient and approachable analysis tool for the adoption of newly developed heat tracing analysis from stream reach to landscape scales.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2002

Flow and storage in groundwater systems

The dynamic nature of groundwater is not readily apparent, except where discharge is focused at springs or where recharge enters sinkholes. Yet groundwater flow and storage are continually changing in response to human and climatic stresses. Wise development of groundwater resources requires a more complete understanding of these changes in flow and storage and of their effects on the terrestrial environment and on numerous surface-water features and their biota.

Science↗
USGS2009

The ecology of dust

Wind erosion and associated dust emissions play a fundamental role in many ecological processes and provide important biogeochemical connectivity at scales ranging from individual plants up to the entire globe. Yet, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust‐driven processes, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian (wind‐driven) processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than an ecological context. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the scale of plants and surrounding space to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbance affects these interactions and their consequences. It is likely that changes in climate and intensification of land use will lead to increased dust production from many drylands. To address these issues, environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers need to consider wind erosion and dust emissions more explicitly in resource management decisions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2012

A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave

Lakes Mead and Mohave, which are the centerpieces of Lake Mead National Recreation Area, provide many significant benefits that have made the modern development of the Southwestern United States possible. Lake Mead is the largest reservoir by volume in the nation and it supplies critical storage of water supplies for more than 25 million people in three Western States (California, Arizona, and Nevada). Storage within Lake Mead supplies drinking water and the hydropower to provide electricity for major cities including Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Tucson, and San Diego, and irrigation of more than 2.5 million acres of croplands. Lake Mead is arguably the most important reservoir in the nation because of its size and the services it delivers to the Western United States. This Circular includes seven chapters. Chapter 1 provides a short summary of the overall findings and management implications for Lakes Mead and Mohave that can be used to guide the reader through the rest of the Circular. Chapter 2 introduces the environmental setting and characteristics of Lakes Mead and Mohave and provides a brief management context of the lakes within the Colorado River system as well as overviews of the geological bedrock and sediment accumulations of the lakes. Chapter 3 contains summaries of the operational and hydrologic characteristics of Lakes Mead and Mohave. Chapter 4 provides information on water quality, including discussion on the monitoring of contaminants and sediments within the reservoirs. Chapter 5 describes aquatic biota and wildlife, including food-web dynamics, plankton, invertebrates, fish, aquatic birds, and aquatic vegetation. Chapter 6 outlines threats and stressors to the health of Lake Mead aquatic ecosystems that include a range of environmental contaminants, invasive species, and climate change. Chapter 7 provides a more detailed summary of overall findings that are presented in Chapter 1; and it contains a more detailed discussion on associated management implications, additional research, and monitoring needs.

Arizona, Nevada↗
USGS2017

Case studies of riparian and watershed restoration in the southwestern United States—Principles, challenges, and successes

Globally, rivers and streams are highly altered by impoundments, diversions, and stream channelization associated with agricultural and water delivery needs. Climate change imposes additional challenges by further reducing discharge, introducing variability in seasonal precipitation patterns, and increasing temperatures. Collectively, these changes in a river or stream’s annual hydrology affects surface and groundwater dynamics, fluvial processes, and the linked aquatic and riparian responses, particularly in arid regions. Recognizing the inherent ecosystem services that riparian and aquatic habitats provide, society increasingly supports restoring the functionality of riparian and aquatic ecosystems. Given the wide range in types and scales of riparian impacts, approaches to riparian restoration can range from tactical, short-term, and site-specific efforts to strategic projects and long-term collaborations best pursued at the watershed scale. In the spirit of sharing information, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center convened a workshop June 23-25, 2015, in Flagstaff, Ariz. for practitioners in restoration science to share general principles, successful restoration practices, and discuss the challenges that face those practicing riparian restoration in the southwestern United States. Presenters from the Colorado River and the Rio Grande basins, offered their perspectives and experiences in restoration at the local, reach and watershed scale. Outcomes of the workshop include this Proceedings volume, which is composed of extended abstracts of most of the presentations given at the workshop, and recommendations or information needs identified by participants. The organization of the Proceedings follows a general progression from local scale restoration to river and watershed scale approaches, and finishes with restoration assessments and monitoring.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km 2 ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Life history diversity of Snake River finespotted cutthroat trout: managing for persistence in a rapidly changing environment

Over the last century, native trout have experienced dramatic population declines, particularly in larger river systems where habitats associated with different spawning life history forms have been lost through habitat degradation and fragmentation. The resulting decrease in life history diversity has affected the capacity of populations to respond to environmental variability and disturbance. Unfortunately, because few large rivers are intact enough to permit full expression of life history diversity, it is unclear what patterns of diversity should be a conservation target. In this study, radiotelemetry was used to identify spawning and migration patterns of Snake River Finespotted Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii behnkei in the upper Snake River. Individuals were implanted with radio tags in October 2007 and 2008, and monitored through October 2009. Radio-tagged cutthroat trout in the upper Snake River exhibited variation in spawning habitat type and location, migration distance, spawn timing, postspawning behavior, and susceptibility to mortality sources. Between May and July, Cutthroat Trout spawned in runoff-dominated tributaries, groundwater-dominated spring creeks, and side channels of the Snake River. Individuals migrated up to 101 km from tagging locations in the upper Snake River to access spawning habitats, indicating that the upper Snake River provided seasonal habitat for spawners originating throughout the watershed. Postspawning behavior also varied; by August each year, 28% of spring-creek spawners remained in their spawning location, compared with 0% of side-channel spawners and 7% of tributary spawners. These spawning and migration patterns reflect the connectivity, habitat diversity, and dynamic template of the Snake River. Ultimately, promoting life history diversity through restoration of complex habitats may provide the most opportunities for cutthroat trout persistence in an environment likely to experience increased variability from climate change and disturbance from invasive species.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of snow refugia in the rain-snow transition zone of north-central Idaho

Knowledge of snow cover distribution and disappearance dates over a wide range of scales is imperative for understanding hydrological dynamics and for habitat management of wildlife species that rely on snow cover. Identification of snow refugia, or places with relatively late snow disappearance dates (SDDs) compared to surrounding areas, is especially important as climate change alters snow cover timing and duration. The purpose of this study was to increase understanding of snow refugia in complex terrain spanning the rain-snow transition zone at fine spatial and temporal scales. To accomplish this objective, we used remote cameras to provide relatively high temporal and spatial resolution measurements on snowpack conditions. We built linear models to relate SDDs at the monitoring sites to topoclimatic and canopy cover metrics. One model to quantify SDDs included elevation, aspect, and an interaction between canopy cover and cold-air pooling potential. High-elevation, north-facing sites in cold-air pools (CAPs) had the latest SDDs, but isolated lower-elevation points also exhibited relatively late potential SDDs. Importantly, canopy cover had a much stronger effect on SDDs in CAPs than in non-CAPs, indicating that best practices in forest management for snow refugia could vary across microtopography. A second model that included in situ hydroclimate observations (December – February (DJF) temperature and March 1 snow depth) indicated that March 1 snow depth had little impact on SDD at the coldest winter temperatures, and that DJF temperatures had a stronger effect on SDD at lower snow depths, implying that the relative importance of snowfall and temperature could vary across hydroclimatic contexts in their impact on snow refugia. This new understanding of factors influencing snow refugia can guide forest management actions to increase snow retention and inform management of snow-dependent wildlife species in complex terrain.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2012

Ecosystem performance monitoring of rangelands by integrating modeling and remote sensing

Monitoring rangeland ecosystem dynamics, production, and performance is valuable for researchers and land managers. However, ecosystem monitoring studies can be difficult to interpret and apply appropriately if management decisions and disturbances are inseparable from the ecosystem's climate signal. This study separates seasonal weather influences from influences caused by disturbances and management decisions, making interannual time-series analysis more consistent and interpretable. We compared the actual ecosystem performance (AEP) of five rangeland vegetation types in the Owyhee Uplands for 9 yr to their expected ecosystem performance (EEP). Integrated growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for each of the nine growing seasons served as a proxy for annual AEP. Regression-tree models used long-term site potential, seasonal weather, and land cover data sets to generate annual EEP, an estimate of ecosystem performance incorporating annual weather variations. The difference between AEP and EEP provided a performance measure for each pixel in the study area. Ecosystem performance anomalies occurred when the ecosystem performed significantly better or worse than the model predicted. About 14% of the Owyhee Uplands showed a trend of significant underperformance or overperformance ( P <0.10). Land managers can use results from weather-based rangeland ecosystem performance models to help support adaptive management strategies.

Oregon;Idaho↗
USGS1997

Evaluation of drawdown and sources of water in the Mississippi River alluvium caused by hypothetical pumping, Muscatine, Iowa

A study was conducted to evaluate drawdown and volumetric changes in sources of water in the Mississippi River alluvium caused by hypothetical pumping. A steady-state, ground-water flow model was constructed for a previous study to simulate February 1993 hydrologic conditions, which were assumed to be an acceptable estimate of the ground-water system at equilibrium. The flow model was modified for this study to simulate six hypothetical pumping scenarios: five pumping scenarios to simulate hypothetical pumping at five pumping scenario sites, and a total pumping scenario to simulate cumulative hypothetical pumping from the five pumping scenario sites. The evaluation of drawdown for the six hypothetical pumping scenarios indicates that hypothetical pumping causes simulated drawdown that varies from about 10 ft to greater than 50 ft relative to February 1993 conditions at the five hypothetical pumping scenario sites. The simulated drawdown is less than half of the estimated saturated thickness of the alluvium during February 1993 at these sites. The primary sources of water (inflows) to the alluvium needed to balance the increased ground-water withdrawals (outflows) caused by hypothetical pumping are a combination of increased river leakage and decreased leakage to Muscatine Slough. Compared to February 1993 conditions, larger inflow rates occur as river leakage from the Mississippi River for the six hypothetical pumping scenarios. However, smaller outflow rates to Muscatine Slough compared to February 1993 conditions indicate that an important source of water for hypothetical pumping is ground-water discharge that would have become streamflow in the slough. Increased pumping at the hypothetical pumping scenario sites could affect long-term water quality and hydrology in the study area. The greater amounts of river leakage might affect overall ground-water quality in the alluvium. The lesser amounts of ground water being discharged to streamflow could have a long-term impact on the hydrology of the slough and adjacent wetland areas. The simplified steady-state flow model does not account for dynamic (transient) conditions (natural or development-related). The steady-state model does not indicate time needed to reach new equilibrium conditions. Attaining equilibrium might take many years and is complicated by varying climatic and hydrologic conditions; noncontinuous pumping and pumping that is cycled among well fields; and changing and seasonally varying irrigation pumpage.

Illinois, Iowa↗
USGS2022

Human and ecosystem health in coastal systems

U.S. coastal economies and communities are facing an unprecedented and growing number of impacts to coastal ecosystems including beach and fishery closures, harmful algal blooms, loss of critical habitat, as well as shoreline damage. This paper synthesizes our present understanding of the dynamics of human and ecosystem health in coastal systems with a focus on the need to better understand nearshore physical process interactions with coastal pollutants and ecosystems (e.g. fate and transport, circulation, depositional environment, climate change). It is organized around two major topical areas and six subtopic areas: 1) Identifying and mitigating coastal pollutants, including fecal pollution, nutrients and harmful algal blooms, and microplastics; and 2) Resilient coastal ecosystems, which focuses on coastal fisheries, shellfish and natural and nature-based features (NNBF). Societal needs and the tools and technologies needed to address them are discussed for each subtopic. Recommendations for scientific research, observations, community engagement, and policies aim to help prioritize future research and investments. A better understanding of coastal physical processes and interactions with coastal pollutants and resilient ecosystems (e.g. fate and transport, circulation, depositional environment, climate change) is a critical need. Other research recommendations include the need to quantify potential threats to human and ecosystem health through accurate risk assessments and to quantify the resulting hazard risk reduction of natural and nature-based features; improve pollutant and ecosystem impacts forecasting by integrating frequent and new data points into existing and novel models; collect environmental data to calibrate and validate models to predict future impacts on coastal ecosystems and their evolution due to anthropogenic stressors (land-based pollution, overfishing, coastal development), climate change, and sea level rise; and develop lower cost and rapid response tools to help coastal managers better respond to pollutant and ecosystem threats.

Shore and Beach↗
USGS2012

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year −1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month −1 year −1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

International Journal of Climatology↗