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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2018

The response of source-bordering aeolian dunefields to sediment-supply changes 1: Effects of wind variability and river-valley morphodynamics

Source-bordering dunefields (SBDs), which are primarily built and maintained with river-derived sediment, are found in many large river valleys and are currently impacted by changes in sediment supply due to climate change, land use changes, and river regulation. Despite their importance, a physically based, applied approach for quantifying the response of SBDs to changes in sediment supply does not exist. To address this knowledge gap, here we develop an approach for quantifying the geomorphic responses to sediment-supply alteration based on the interpretation of dunefield morphodynamics from geomorphic change detection and wind characteristics. We use the approach to test hypotheses about the response of individual dunefields to variability in sediment supply at three SBDs along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA during the 11 years between 2002 and 2013 when several river floods rebuilt some river sandbars and channel margin deposits that serve as sediment source areas for the SBDs. We demonstrate that resupply of fluvially sourced aeolian sediment occurred at one of the SBDs, but not at the other two, and attribute this differential response to site-specific variability in geomorphology, wind, and sediment source areas. The approach we present is applied in a companion study to shorter time periods with high-resolution topographic data that bracket individual floods in order to infer the resupply of fluvially sourced aeolian sediment to SBDs by managed river flows. Such an applied methodology could also be useful for measuring sediment connectivity and anthropogenic alterations of connectivity in other coupled fluvial-aeolian environments.

Arizona↗
USGS2010

Global climate changes recorded in coastal wetland sediments: Empirical observations linked to theoretical predictions

Whether coastal areas are experiencing, and responding to, an accelerated rate of global sea-level rise (GSLR) is critically important for the ∼2 billion people living near Earth's oceans. Accretion rates from a suite of physiographically diverse coastal wetlands surrounding Long Island, NY accelerated during the 20th century at 2.3 ± 0.2 × 10 −2 mm yr −2 , which is comparable to reported rates of GSLR acceleration and global temperature changes. Wetlands varied in tidal range, salinity and geomorphic setting, and were located in embayments with limited human impacts in a region with limited and constant rates of subsidence. From geochronologies with temporal resolutions of 2–5 yr, we constructed new composite histories of sediment accretion and mineral deposition. Wetland dynamics are consistent with predictions from sedimentology and a numerical model of ecogeomorphic response, suggesting that these systems, and likely others worldwide, are responding to accelerated GSLR and related climatic changes.

New York↗
USGS2016

Effects of climate and water balance across grasslands of varying C 3 and C 4 grass cover

Climate change in grassland ecosystems may lead to divergent shifts in the abundance and distribution of C 3 and C 4 grasses. Many studies relate mean climate conditions over relatively long time periods to plant cover, but there is still much uncertainty about how the balance of C 3 and C 4 species will be affected by climate at a finer temporal scale than season (individual events to months). We monitored cover at five grassland sites with co-dominant C 3 and C 4 grass species or only dominant C 3 grass species for 6 yr in national parks across the Colorado Plateau region to assess the influence of specific months of climate and water balance on changes in grass cover. C 4 grass cover increased and decreased to a larger degree than C 3 grass cover with extremely dry and wet consecutive years, but this response varied by ecological site. Climate and water balance explained 10–49% of the inter-annual variability of cover of C 3 and C 4 grasses at all sites. High precipitation in the spring and in previous year monsoon storms influenced changes in cover of C 4 grasses, with measures of water balance in the same months explaining additional variability. C 3 grasses in grasslands where they were dominant were influenced primarily by longer periods of climate, while C 3 grasses in grasslands where they were co-dominant with C 4 grasses were influenced little by climate anomalies at either short or long periods of time. Our results suggest that future changes in spring and summer climate and water balance are likely to affect cover of both C 3 and C 4 grasses, but cover of C 4 grasses may be affected more strongly, and the degree of change will depend on soils and topography where they are growing and the timing of the growing season.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2012

Drivers of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems: Discoveries from four decades of study in San Francisco Bay

Poised at the interface of rivers, ocean, atmosphere and dense human settlement, estuaries are driven by a large array of natural and anthropogenic forces. San Francisco Bay exemplifies the fast-paced change occurring in many of the world's estuaries, bays and inland seas in response to these diverse forces. We use observations from this particularly well-studied estuary to illustrate responses to six drivers that are common agents of change where land and sea meet: water consumption and diversion; human modification of sediment supply; introduction of non-native species; sewage input; environmental policy; and climate shifts. In San Francisco Bay, responses to these drivers include, respectively, shifts in the timing and extent of freshwater inflow and salinity intrusion; decreasing turbidity; restructuring of plankton communities; nutrient enrichment; elimination of hypoxia and reduced metal contamination of biota; and food web changes that decrease resistance of the estuary to nutrient pollution. Detection of these changes and discovery of their causes through environmental monitoring have been essential for establishing and measuring outcomes of environmental policies that aim to maintain high water quality and sustain services provided by estuarine-coastal ecosystems. The wide range of variability time scales and the multiplicity of interacting drivers place heavy demands on estuarine monitoring programs. But the San Francisco Bay case study illustrates why the imperative for monitoring has never been greater.

California↗
USGS1993

Laguna madre: Seagrass changes continue decades after salinity reduction

Vegetation maps of the lower Laguna Madre prepared from surveys conducted in 1965–1967, 1974–1976, and 1988 document a >330 km 2 decrease in cover by Halodule wrightii , an increase of almost 190 km 2 in other seagrass species, and an increase of 140 km 2 in bare bottom. Loss in seagrass cover is confined to deeper parts of the laguna; turbidity caused by maintenance dredging is the suspected cause. The species shifts are consistent with observed reductions in salinity maxima. Although the hydrological alterations and climatic shift responsible for moderating the salinity regime occurred between 1948 and 1965, the biological changes continue. Establishment of patches away from source meadows appears to be the process for displacing species that limits their rate of expansion into suitable habitat in this elongate embayment.

Texas↗
USGS2016

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2014

Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Asymmetric mate preference and reproductive interference mediate climate-induced changes in mate availability in a small mammal hybrid zone

Range expansion and contraction are among the most common biotic responses to changing environmental conditions, yet much is to be learned about the mechanisms that underlie range-edge population dynamics, especially when those areas are points of secondary contact between closely related species. Here, we present field-measured parentage data that document the reproductive outcomes of changes in mate availability at a secondary contact zone between two species of woodrat in the genus Neotoma . Changes in mate availability resulted from drought-driven differential survival between the species and their hybrids. As the availability of conspecifc mates declined, rates of hybridization increased, leading to the accumulation of admixed individuals in the zone of contact. Patterns of reproductive success in the wild appear to be the result of a combination of both pre-mating isolation and post-zygotic selection resulting from genomic incompatibilities between the parental lineages. Evidence of asymmetric mate preference between the parental lineages came from both skewed reproductive output in the field and laboratory preference trials. Moreover, partial genomic incompatibility was evident from the near-zero reproductive success of F1 males and because nearly all surviving hybrids had one pure parent. Nonetheless, the high reproductive success of F1 females and backcrossing in both parental directions allow for introgression between the parental species. These findings reveal how climate change may alter evolutionary outcomes for species at the edge of their ranges through an interplay of behavioral, demographic, and genetic mechanisms.

California↗
USGS2026

Alternative future vegetation pathways reveal potential transformations of western US ecosystems

Managing ecosystems in an era of rapid change is inherently challenging not only because of uncertainty in future climate but also due to diverse responses of ecosystems to climate. Projections of ecological transformation alongside information about plausible vegetation trajectories can help land managers explore divergent scenarios and consider how modeled outcomes match their observations. Climate-analog impact models (AIMs) compare environmental information (e.g., vegetation types) between sets of climatically similar locations to infer change and can be used to identify multiple outcomes. We used AIMs to project changes in vegetation across the western United States under a mid-21st century climate scenario, characterize ecological transformation vulnerability based on projection divergence, and demonstrate how AIMs can inform decision-making. We projected high or very high vulnerability to ecological transformation across 29% of the western US, nearly 1 M km 2 . Vulnerability varied among vegetation groups; 75% of alpine vegetation had high or very high vulnerability vs. 6% of desert scrub. We estimate that 9% of the study area faces a high likelihood of transformation based on combined measures of vulnerability and projection agreement. Transformation at the vegetation type ( n = 50) level is projected for 40% (1.4 M km 2 ) of the study area, based on primary projections. As vegetation shifts towards types supported by a more arid climate, forested area is expected to contract by 9% and subalpine forests specifically by 54%. Elsewhere, vulnerability is low or trajectories are uncertain, implying opportunities for managers to intervene. Dry forests, for example, could be stabilized through vegetation management and intentional fire use. Our findings suggest likely ecological transformations with significant downstream consequences for ecosystem services and natural resources. They are best used within decision-making frameworks that draw on multiple lines of evidence including local expertise and complementary knowledge systems.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2021

Linking climate niches across seasons to assess population vulnerability in a migratory bird

Global loss of biodiversity has placed new urgency on the need to understand factors regulating species response to rapid environmental change. While specialists are often less resilient to rapid environmental change than generalists, species-level analyses may obscure the extent of specialization when locally adapted populations vary in climate tolerances. Until recently, quantification of the degree of climate specialization in migratory birds below the species level was hindered by a lack of genomic and tracking information, but recent technological advances have helped to overcome these barriers. Here we take a genome-wide genetic approach to mapping population-specific migratory routes and quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct populations of a migratory bird, the willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ), which exhibits variation in the severity of population declines across its breeding range. While our sample size is restricted to the number of genetically distinct populations within the species, our results support the idea that locally adapted populations of the willow flycatcher with narrow climatic niches across seasons are already federally listed as endangered or in steep decline, while populations with broader climatic niches have remained stable in recent decades. Overall, this work highlights the value of quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct groups across time and space when attempting to understand the factors that facilitate or constrain the response of locally adapted populations to rapid environmental change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2019

Remote sensing of dryland ecosystem structure and function: Progress, challenges, and opportunities

Drylands make up roughly 40% of the Earth's land surface, and billions of people depend on services provided by these critically important ecosystems. Despite their relatively sparse vegetation, dryland ecosystems are structurally and functionally diverse, and emerging evidence suggests that these ecosystems play a dominant role in the trend and variability of the terrestrial carbon sink. More, drylands are highly sensitive to climate and are likely to have large, non-linear responses to hydroclimatic change. Monitoring the spatiotemporal dynamics of dryland ecosystem structure (e.g., leaf area index) and function (e.g., primary production and evapotranspiration) is therefore a high research priority. Yet, dryland remote sensing is defined by unique challenges not typically encountered in mesic or humid regions. Major challenges include low vegetation signal-to-noise ratios, high soil background reflectance, presence of photosynthetic soils (i.e., biological soil crusts), high spatial heterogeneity from plot to regional scales, and irregular growing seasons due to unpredictable seasonal rainfall and frequent periods of drought. Additionally, there is a relative paucity of continuous, long-term measurements in drylands, which impedes robust calibration and evaluation of remotely-sensed dryland data products. Due to these issues, remote sensing techniques developed in other ecosystems or for global application often result in inaccurate, poorly constrained estimates of dryland ecosystem structural and functional dynamics. Here, we review past achievements and current progress in remote sensing of dryland ecosystems, including a detailed discussion of the major challenges associated with remote sensing of key dryland structural and functional dynamics. We then identify strategies aimed at leveraging new and emerging opportunities in remote sensing to overcome previous challenges and more accurately contextualize drylands within the broader Earth system. Specifically, we recommend: 1) Exploring novel combinations of sensors and techniques (e.g., solar-induced fluorescence, thermal, microwave, hyperspectral, and LiDAR) across a range of spatiotemporal scales to gain new insights into dryland structural and functional dynamics; 2) utilizing near-continuous observations from new-and-improved geostationary satellites to capture the rapid responses of dryland ecosystems to diurnal variation in water stress; 3) expanding ground observational networks to better represent the heterogeneity of dryland systems and enable robust calibration and evaluation; 4) developing algorithms that are specifically tuned to dryland ecosystems by utilizing expanded ground observational network data; and 5) coupling remote sensing observations with process-based models using data assimilation to improve mechanistic understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics and to better constrain ecological forecasts and long-term projections.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2016

A stochastic bioenergetics model based approach to translating large river flow and temperature in to fish population responses: The pallid sturgeon example

In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.

Missouri River↗
USGS2023

Northwest Forest Plan — The first 25 years (1994–2018): Watershed condition status and trends

This report describes status and trends in watershed condition across the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) area over the first 25 years since its inception in 1994. The program charged with this task is the Aquatic and Riparian Effectiveness Monitoring Program (AREMP), which has assembled information from field data collection, spatial datasets, and a host of landscape models to evaluate the status and trends in aquatic resources in streams and watersheds. Field data included hydrologic measurements (stream wetted widths and temperatures), geomorphic responses (instream wood and sediment), and biological responses (macroinvertebrates and aquatic organism passage). Novel statistical models were used to estimate trends in these measured responses. A suite of complementary modeled results was also employed to describe hydrometeorological drivers (e.g., drought indices and stream discharge), forest cover (upslope and riparian vegetation), and geomorphic conditions (e.g., road-related estimates of chronic and shallow landslide sediment delivery risk). Collectively, information on these responses allowed us to rigorously evaluate instream responses and hypothesize watershed drivers of those responses across the NWFP area and over time. The majority of responses we observed indicated widespread and incremental improvements from active management of forests, forest roads, and road-stream crossings as envisioned by the aquatic conservation strategy of the NWFP. Additionally, many of the responses we observed were consistent with those expected under the influences of changing climates in the Pacific Northwest. Ultimately, the long-term, broad-scale information provided by AREMP is a critical foundation for evaluating the effectiveness of federal land management and the effects of changing climates on water resources that sustain the Pacific Northwest’s human and natural landscapes.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS1997

Using remote sensing to monitor global change

To properly respond to natural and human-induced stresses to wetlands, resource managers must consider their functions and values. Remote sensing is an important tool for monitoring wetland responses to changes in the hydrologic regime and water quality caused by global climate change and sea-level rise.

St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge↗
USGS2021

USGS Chesapeake Science Strategy 2021-2025

The Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is a national treasure that provides almost $100 billion annually of goods and services. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP), is one of the largest federal-state restoration partnerships in the United States and is underpinned by rigorous science. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a pivotal role as a science provider for assessing ecosystem condition and response in the Chesapeake watershed. Despite significant CBP accomplishments, the pressures of climate change and competing demands on land use and change require an acceleration of progress towards the 10 goals in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement. USGS Chesapeake studies are increasing efforts to provide integrated science and are engaging stakeholders to inform the multi-faceted restoration and conservation decisions to improve habitat for fish and waterfowl, and socio-economic benefits to the 18 million people living in the watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS2023

Seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels on the Southern High Plains of Texas

American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) populations are generally declining across the species' North American distribution but the population in the Southern High Plains region currently appears to be stable. Historical evidence suggests the region formerly had a low abundance of kestrels, and that their current numbers are due to landscape changes associated with European settlement. We conducted monthly surveys for American Kestrels across 2 yr to estimate seasonal densities and identify land cover associations in the Southern High Plains of Texas. We found an overall estimated density of 0.99 birds/km 2 (95% CI = 0.406, 1.582) across the 2-yr period, with seasonal estimated densities highest in autumn and winter (0.92–2.53/ km 2 ), and lowest in spring (0.49–0.67/km 2 ). Whereas other studies have found that temperature influenced detection of wintering kestrels, we found an interaction of drought conditions and snow most strongly influenced the number of kestrels in our study area. Kestrels largely used land cover types in proportion to availability but there was some evidence of seasonal shifts. Generally, they tended to avoid cotton fields and sometimes selected for areas with woodlots, abandoned or occupied houses, and barns, all of which likely provided nesting and roosting opportunities. Our study provides the first contemporary assessment of seasonal abundance and habitat associations of American Kestrels in the Southern High Plains, where their presence and abundance has been unintentionally facilitated by landscape changes following settlement. We provide a baseline for population monitoring and studies assessing response to additional landscape changes (e.g., development of wind energy facilities) and a changing climate.

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS2011

Biological review of 82 species of coral petitioned to be included in the Endangered Species Act

list 83 coral species as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The petition was based on a predicted decline in available habitat for the species, citing anthropogenic climate change and ocean acidification as the lead factors among the various stressors responsible for the potential decline. The NMFS identified 82 of the corals as candidate species, finding that the petition provided substantive information for a potential listing of these species. The NMFS established a Biological Review Team (BRT) to prepare this Status Review Report that examines the status of these 82 candidate coral species and evaluates extinction risk for each of them. This document makes no recommendations for listing, as that is a separate evaluation to be conducted by the NMFS. The BRT considered two major factors in conducting this review. The first factor was the interaction of natural phenomena and anthropogenic stressors that could potentially contribute to coral extinction. After extensive review of available scientific information, the BRT considers ocean warming, disease, and ocean acidification to be the most influential threats in posing extinction risks to the 82 candidate coral species between now and the year 2100. Threats of local origin but having widespread impact, such as sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and fishing, were considered of medium importance in determining extinction risks. It is acknowledged that many other threats (e.g., physical damage from storms or ship groundings, invasive species or predator outbreaks, collection and trade) also negatively affect corals, often acutely and dramatically, but generally at relatively small local scales. These local threats were considered to be of limited scope and not deemed to contribute appreciably to the risk of species extinction, except in those special cases where species have restricted geographic or habitat ranges or species have already undergone precipitous population declines such that these local threats further contribute to depensatory processes that can magnify extinction risks (e.g., feedback-loops whereby individual survival decreases with smaller population size). The BRT acknowledges that local and global threats operate on different time scales and, though there is high confidence in the general progression of some key global threats, such as ocean warming and ocean acidification, there is much less certainty in the timing and spatial patterns of these threats. There is also substantial uncertainty in the abilities of the 82 candidate coral species to tolerate or adapt to each of the threats examined, as well as uncertainty in the dynamics of multiple simultaneous stresses. The BRT specifically identified increasing human population levels and the intensity of their collective human consumption as the root drivers of almost all global and local threats to coral species. In evaluating future threat impacts, the BRT attempted to project current trends, without assumptions of future policy changes or technological advances that could potentially alter the projections used in this analysis.

NOAA Technical Memorandum↗
USGS2018

Characterizing local and range wide variation in demography and adaptive capacity of a forest indicator species

The red-backed salamander ( Plethodon cinereus ) is considered an indicator of forest health. The range of the species covers much of the eastern and central US, and is often locally abundant where it occurs, primarily in deciduous forest. While there are expectations that changes in climate will result in changes in forest ecosystems, the ability of a forest indicator such as the red-backed salamanderto adapt to those changes, has not been assessed. We found that the red-backed salamander may have little adaptive capacity, but that changes in climate conditions may be buffered by salamander behavior, including its typical response to retreat underground during times of high temperature or during short-term drought. Effective conservation measures will likely need to increase the range of within-population climate tolerance in order for populations to persist locally.

Final Report↗