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USGS2017

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020–2059 relative to 1910–2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060–2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.

Ecology↗

USGS2010

Modeling amphibian energetics, habitat suitability, and movements of western toads, Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas, across present and future landscapes

Effective conservation of amphibian populations requires the prediction of how amphibians use and move through a landscape. Amphibians are closely coupled to their physical environment. Thus an approach that uses the physiological attributes of amphibians, together with knowledge of their natural history, should be helpful. We used Niche Mapper™ to model the known movements and habitat use patterns of a population of Western toads ( Anaxyrus (= Bufo ) boreas ) occupying forested habitats in southeastern Idaho. Niche Mapper uses first principles of environmental biophysics to combine features of topography, climate, land cover, and animal features to model microclimates and animal physiology and behavior across landscapes. Niche Mapper reproduced core body temperatures ( T c ) and evaporation rates of live toads with average errors of 1.6 ± 0.4 °C and 0.8 ± 0.2 g/h, respectively. For four different habitat types, it reproduced similar mid-summer daily temperature patterns as those measured in the field and calculated evaporation rates (g/h) with an average error rate of 7.2 ± 5.5%. Sensitivity analyses indicate these errors do not significantly affect estimates of food consumption or activity. Using Niche Mapper we predicted the daily habitats used by free-ranging toads; our accuracy for female toads was greater than for male toads (74.2 ± 6.8% and 53.6 ± 15.8%, respectively), reflecting the stronger patterns of habitat selection among females. Using these changing to construct a cost surface, we also reconstructed movement paths that were consistent with field observations. The effect of climate warming on toads depends on the interaction of temperature and atmospheric moisture. If climate change occurs as predicted, results from Niche Mapper suggests that climate warming will increase the physiological cost of landscapes thereby limiting the activity for toads in different habitats.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Drought resistance and resilience: The role of soil moisture–plant interactions and legacies in a dryland ecosystem

In many regions of the world, climate change is projected to reduce water availability through changes in the hydrological cycle, including more frequent and intense droughts, as well as seasonal shifts in precipitation. In water-limited ecosystems, such as drylands, lower soil water availability may exceed the adaptive capacity of many organisms, leading to cascading ecological effects during (concurrent effects) and after drought (legacy effects). The magnitude and duration of concurrent and legacy effects depends on drought intensity, duration and timing as well as the resistance and resilience of the ecosystem. Here, we investigated the effects of drought seasonality and plant community composition on two dominant perennial grasses, Achnatherum hymenoides (C 3 photosynthesis) and Pleuraphis jamesii (C 4 photosynthesis), in a dryland ecosystem. The experiment consisted of three precipitation treatments: control (ambient precipitation), cool-season drought (−66% ambient precipitation November–April) and warm-season drought (−66% ambient precipitation May–October), applied in two plant communities (perennial grasses with or without a large shrub, Ephedra viridis ) over a 3-year period. We examined the concurrent and legacy effects of seasonal drought on soil moisture, phenology and biomass. Drought treatments had strong concurrent and legacy effects on soil moisture, which impacted the phenology and biomass of the two grasses. Drought reduced growing season length by delaying green-up (cool-season drought) or advancing senescence (warm-season drought) and reduced biomass for both species. Biomass and phenology legacy effects from drought emerged in the second and third years of the experiment. While we observed differential sensitivity to drought legacies between the two grasses, we found limited evidence that shrub presence had interactive effects with the drought treatment. Synthesis . The results from this study highlight how abiotic and biotic legacies can develop and influence a community's resistance and resilience to subsequent droughts. When the frequency of repeated extreme events, such as recurring seasonal droughts, exceeds the capacity of organisms or ecosystems to recover (i.e. resilience), persistent drought legacies can reduce the resistance to subsequent drought events. Overall, these results highlight how drought legacies are a product of ecological resistance and resilience to past drought and can influence ecosystem vulnerability to future droughts.

Utah↗

USGS2024

Mangrove freeze resistance and resilience across a tropical-temperate transitional zone

Freeze events govern the distribution and structure of mangrove ecosystems, especially in tropical-temperate transitional zones. Understanding mangrove responses to freezing is crucial for predicting their poleward expansion under climate change. However, there is a need for field-based measurements of mangrove freeze resistance and resilience. After an extreme winter storm in December 2022, we measured mangrove post-freeze damage and recovery (January and November 2023), building on a pre-freeze baseline assessment conducted in July 2022 across 12 sites along the temperature gradient of Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast (USA). Low-temperature thresholds for leaf damage to Avicennia germinans , Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa were quantified near −6, −4 and − 4°C, respectively. Thresholds for mortality were found to be near −6 to −7°C for A. germinans and −4 to −5°C for R. mangle . A threshold for loss of reproductivity in A. germinans was identified near −6 to −7°C. Resprouting was observed in all three species but limited to just one individual for R. mangle . Surviving A. germinans resprouted vigorously and had the greatest number of resprout branches, which was proportional to leaf damage. Tall A. germinans had a higher resprout percentage than short trees. Strata-specific differences in freeze damage were most pronounced for R. mangle , with higher damage in tall versus short trees, while no difference was found between A. germinans strata. These results suggest that R. mangle population recovery may depend on the growth of short trees, while A. germinans can recover from all strata. Minimum air temperature was strongly correlated with mangrove height and above-ground biomass. Projections of future minimum temperature and species-specific freeze degree days predict warming winters, suggesting further mangrove development and range expansion under climate change. Synthesis : Collectively, our study advances understanding of mangrove responses to freezing and identifies low-temperature thresholds for each species, aiding predictions of mangrove range expansion.

Florida↗

USGS2008

Long-term survival despite low genetic diversity in the critically endangered Madagascar fish-eagle

The critically endangered Madagascar fish-eagle (Haliaeetus vociferoides) is considered to be one of the rarest birds of prey globally and at significant risk of extinction. In the most recent census, only 222 adult individuals were recorded with an estimated total breeding population of no more than 100-120 pairs. Here, levels of Madagascar fish-eagle population genetic diversity based on 47 microsatellite loci were compared with its sister species, the African fish-eagle (Haliaeetus vocifer), and 16 of these loci were also characterized in the white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) and the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). Overall, extremely low genetic diversity was observed in the Madagascar fish-eagle compared to other surveyed Haliaeetus species. Determining whether this low diversity is the result of a recent bottleneck or a more historic event has important implications for their conservation. Using a Bayesian coalescent-based method, we show that Madagascar fish-eagles have maintained a small effective population size for hundreds to thousands of years and that its low level of neutral genetic diversity is not the result of a recent bottleneck. Therefore, efforts made to prevent Madagascar fish-eagle extinction should place high priority on maintenance of habitat requirements and reducing direct and indirect human persecution. Given the current rate of deforestation in Madagascar, we further recommend that the population be expanded to occupy a larger geographical distribution. This will help the population persist when exposed to stochastic factors (e.g. climate and disease) that may threaten a species consisting of only 200 adult individuals while inhabiting a rapidly changing landscape. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS2021

Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units program—2020 research abstracts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves as the research arm of the U.S. Department of the Interior and has established a series of strategic goals that focus its efforts on serving the American people. Within the USGS, the Ecosystems Mission Area is responsible for conducting and sponsoring research that addresses the following thematic objectives under the overarching strategic goal of “Science that Supports Our Resources in Wild and Urban Spaces, and the Landscapes In-Between”: Science supporting a legacy of sustainable fish and wildlife, Social science and human components in land, water, and wildlife conservation, Trusted science supporting hard decisions on at-risk species, Science to battle costly biological threats, Providing science for managing risks and responding to extreme events, Science for preservation and restoration of iconic landscapes, and Science to support adaptation and address impacts of climate and land change. This report provides abstracts of most of the ongoing and recently completed research investigations of the USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units program. The report is organized by the following major science themes that contribute to the objectives of the USGS: Advanced Technologies Climate Science Decision Science Ecological Flows Ecosystem Services Energy Fish and Wildlife Health and Disease Human Dimensions Invasive Species Landscape Ecology Species and Habitat Management Species of Greatest Conservation Need Threatened and Endangered Species

Circular↗

USGS2018

Designing a protected area to safeguard imperiled species from urbanization

Reserve design is a process that can address ecological, social, and political factors to identify parcels of land needed to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Acquisition of parcels for a large terrestrial reserve is difficult because it typically occurs over a long timeframe and thus invokes consideration of future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. In central Florida, a new protected area, the Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge, has been authorized by the United States Government. The new refuge will host important threatened and endangered species and habitats, as well as be located to allow for species adaptation from climate change impacts. For this study we combined habitat objectives defined by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and projections from two urbanization models to provide guidance for Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge design. We used Marxan with Zones to find near-optimal solutions for protecting explicit amounts of five target habitats. We identified parcels for inclusion into the reserve design that the model allocated among two zones representing different methods of protection: fee-simple purchase (up to 20,234 hectares authorized by the United States government), and conservation easement agreements (up to 40,469 hectares authorized). As expected, for all scenarios we found an increase in costs as the proportion of fee-simple purchases was increased, reflecting the lesser cost of easements, but the number of parcels required for protection differed little among scenarios. The two urbanization models showed considerable agreement over which habitat patches were not forecast to be developed, and showed some agreement over which parcels might be developed. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service may benefit from focusing on parcels that are selected frequently by our analyses under both urban scenarios because these parcels are more likely to be in areas where urbanization threats and demand for land is reduced. The reserve designs we generated met U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service habitat goals within fee and easement zone restrictions, and we found reserve configurations that fell well below the mandated size limit.

Florida↗

USGS2010

The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

The Earth's climate warmed steadily during the 20th century, and mean annual air temperatures are estimated to have increased by 0.6°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Although many cycles of warming and cooling have occurred in the past, the most recent warming period is unique in its rate and magnitude of change (Siegenthaler and others, 2005) and in its association with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007). The climate in the western United States warmed in concert with the global trend but at an accelerated rate (+0.8°C during the 20th century; Saunders and others, 2008). The region could also prove especially sensitive to future changes because the relatively small human population is growing rapidly, as are demands on limited water supplies. Regional hydrological patterns are dominated by seasonal snow accumulation at upper elevations. Most of the region is relatively dry, and both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are strongly constrained b y water availability (Barnett and others, 2008; Brown and others, 2008). Stream environments are dynamic and climatically extreme, and salmonid fishes are the dominant elements of the native biodiversity (McPhail and Lindsey, 1986; Waples and others, 2008). Salmonids have broad economic and ecologic importance, but a century of intensive water resource development, nonnative fish stocking, and land use has significantly reduced many populations and several taxa are now protected under the Endangered Species Act (Thurow and others, 1997; Trotter, 2008). Because salmonids require relatively pristine, cold water environments and are often isolated in headwater habitats, members of this group may be especially vulnerable to the effects of a warming climate (Keleher and Rahel, 1996; Rieman and others, 2007; Williams and others, 2009). Warming during the 20th century drove a series of environmental trends that have profound implications for many aspects of salmonid habitat, including disturbance regimes such as wildfire, and unfavorable changes to thermal and hydrologic properties of aquatic systems. Warmer air temperatures have been associated with decreased winter snow accumulations, have accelerated snowmelt, and have advanced the timing of peak runoff by several days to weeks across most of western North America (Stewart and others, 2005; Barnett and others, 2008). Less snow and earlier runoff decrease aquifer recharge, make less water available for groundwater inputs to streams, and are contributing to widespread decreases in summer low flows (Stewart and others, 2005; Rood and others, 2008; Luce and Holden 2009). Interannual variability in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of multi-year extreme conditions (McCabe and others, 2004; Pagano and Garen 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Streams where midwinter temperatures are near freezing have proven especially sensitive to increased flooding because of associated transitional hydrological patterns (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and propensity for occasional rain-on-snow events to rapidly melt winter snowpack and generate large floods (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Stream temperatures in many areas are increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison and others, 2002; Bartholow, 2005; Kaushal and others, 2010), due to both air temperature increases and reduced summer flows that make streams more sensitive to warmer air temperatures (Isaak and others, 2010). In recent decades, wildfires have become more common across much of the western United States during periods of more frequent droughts (Westerling and others, 2006; Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007), and local stream temperature can increase in postfire environments (Gresswell, 1999; Dunham and others, 2007). Fire-related temperature increase within streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch, 2007), a warming climate may gradually increase the quality and extent of suitable habitat. Over time, previously constrained populations are expected to expand into these new habitats and increase in number. Some evidence suggests this may already be happening in Alaska, where streams in recently deglaciated areas are being colonized by emigrants from nearby salmon and char populations (Milner and others, 2000). Unfortunately, many of the sensitive salmonid species that are often the focus of western managers are unlikely to benefit from future water temperature increases. Warmer stream temperatures will facilitate invasion by nonnative species that are broadly established in downstream areas into upstream areas where they will compete with native species (Rieman and others, 2006; Rahel and Olden, 2008; Fausch and others, 2009). In other cases, warmer stream temperatures will render thermally suitable habitats unsuitable in downstream areas and effect net losses of habitat because upstream distributions are often constrained by streams that are too small or steep (Hari and others, 2006; Isaak and others, 2010). Both scenarios are realistic for fish species like bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) (Rieman and others, 2006; Rieman and others, 2007), the various subspecies of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) (Williams and others, 2009), Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae gilae ) (Kennedy and others, 2008), and Apache trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae apache ) (Rinne and Minckley, 1985; Carmichael and others, 1993). As native species are increasingly confined to smaller and more isolated habitats by a gradually warming climate, the effects of wildfires (whether related to lethal changes in water quality during a fire, channel debris flows, or chronic postfire warming ) could have greater proportional effects on remaining habitats (for example, Brown and others, 2001; Rieman and others, 2007). If these changes were accompanied by additional hydrologic alterations associated with changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier future (Williams and others, 2009). Tools are needed to forecast where important changes may occur and how conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this Open-File Report, we document our initial efforts in this regard for 10 species and subspecies of inland trout and Montana Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across the western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2013

Seasonal climate variation and caribou availability: Modeling sequential movement using satellite-relocation data

Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti ) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range.

Alaska, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2018

Measuring and evaluating ecological flows from streams to regions: Steps towards national coverage

Living aquatic communities are largely determined and maintained by the volume and quality of flowing waters, both within lotic systems and in receiving waters of coastal systems. However, flow is one of the most frequently and extensively altered features of rivers and streams; alteration effects are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Lotic systems vary and different fish species need different environmental conditions, and distinct problems are evident at various spatial scales. New synoptic flow and biological information now make it possible to evaluate the effects of altered flows throughout the Great Lakes Region at scales from the stream reach to the Region. We used estimates of river and streamflow and observed fish abundances to develop tools that specify the response of fish to alterations in those flows. We fit the logistic model to a cumulative fish abundance curve as a function of yield providing an empirical means to develop models of the response of cumulative fish abundance to flows. Response zones of yield for each species in each system type (based on size and thermal class) illustrate how criteria may be developed that can be used in decision‐making for management of flows. In our example application, we evaluate both the general response of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) abundances (and fish diversity) to changes in flows and assess the sensitivity of each stream fish community to flow alteration. Mapping stream sensitivity to flow alteration throughout the US Great Lakes Region with a multiscale spatial framework showed how regional variability in sensitivity for any fish species or assemblage may be evaluated and provides managers with information to help determine where the best opportunities for protection or restoration of streamflows and associated communities exist. These results provide valuable tools and critical information to managers responsible for balancing water uses and maintaining high quality lotic ecosystems. These methods may be applied to any geographic region and can be extended nationally or globally, where flow, temperature, fish and landscape data are available.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗

USGS2025

DNA metabarcoding and video camera collars yield different inferences about the summer diet of an arctic ungulate

The diets of wild ungulates are a foundational component of their ecology, influencing their behavior, body condition, and demography. With changing environmental conditions, there is a significant need to identify important forage items for ungulates, but this has often proved challenging. Declines in several barren-ground caribou herds across the North American Arctic have raised concerns about the influence of climate change on caribou forage conditions. Shifts in plant phenology, biomass, quality, and composition may be influencing caribou diets and subsequently affecting their body condition and demographic rates. Although forage is a primary driver of barren-ground caribou behavior and population dynamics, there is limited recent information about the specific foods they consume, and uncertainty about appropriate methods for identifying those foods. Investigators are increasingly using fecal DNA metabarcoding and video camera collars to assess ungulate diets, but comparative studies of these approaches are lacking. To examine the summer diets of barren-ground caribou, we used both fecal metabarcoding and video camera collars to identify forage used by the Porcupine caribou herd, which spans the Alaska–Yukon border. In 2021, we sampled the diets of adult females by collecting fecal samples and observing collar videos during 4 sampling occasions. We found that caribou consumed very specific forage items, and those items varied markedly across the growing season. Caribou predominantly consumed graminoids and lichens during early summer, and shrubs and forbs later in the season. Metabarcoding and video data provided significantly different estimates of diet for all taxonomic levels we evaluated, and inferences from the two approaches were often disparate. Metabarcoding failed to detect some items frequently consumed in videos, such as lichens, and indicated high use of other items rarely consumed, such as mosses. We found that video data provided greater taxonomic diversity and resolution for vascular plants and lichens, and more closely aligned with past research and biological expectations than data from fecal metabarcoding. Additional research is needed to be able to use these methods to identify the biomass of different forage items consumed.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2019

Improving ecological restoration to curb biotic invasion - A practical guide

Common practices for invasive species control and management include physical, chemical, and biological approaches. The first two approaches have clear limitations and may lead to unintended (negative) consequences, unless carefully planned and implemented. For example, physical removal rarely completely eradicates the targeted invasive species and can cause disturbances that facilitate new invasions by nonnative species from nearby habitats. Chemical treatments can harm native, and especially rare, species through unanticipated side effects. Biological methods may be classified as biocontrol and the ecological approach. Similar to physical and chemical methods, biocontrol also has limitations and sometimes leads to unintended consequences. Therefore, a relatively safer and more practical choice may be the ecological approach, which has two major components: (1) restoration of native species and (2) biomass manipulation of the restored community, such as selective grazing or prescribed burning (to achieve and maintain viable population sizes). Restoration requires well-planned and implemented planting designs that consider alpha-, beta-, and gamma-diversity and the abundance of native and invasive component species at local, landscape, and regional levels. Given the extensive destruction or degradation of natural habitats around the world, restoration could be most effective for enhancing ecosystem resilience and resistance to biotic invasions. At the same time, ecosystems in human-dominated landscapes, especially those newly restored, require close monitoring and careful intervention (e.g., through biomass manipulation), especially when successional trajectories are not moving as intended. Biomass management frequently uses prescribed burning, grazing, harvesting, and thinning to maintain overall ecosystem health and sustainability. Thus, the resulting optimal, balanced, and relatively stable ecological conditions could more effectively limit the spread and establishment of invasive species. Here we review the literature (especially within the last decade) on ecological approaches that involve biodiversity, biomass, and productivity, three key community/ecosystem variables that reciprocally influence one another. We focus on the common and most feasible ecological practices that can aid in resisting new invasions and/or suppressing the dominance of existing invasive species. We contend that, because of the strong influences from neighboring areas (i.e., as exotic species pools), local restoration and management efforts in the future need to consider the regional context and projected climate changes.

Invasive Plant Science and Management↗

USGS2015

Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate-change related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2011

Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO 2 and climate change in arid and semiarid western North America

Riparian ecosystems, already greatly altered by water management, land development, and biological invasion, are being further altered by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ([CO 2 ]) and climate change, particularly in arid and semiarid (dryland) regions. In this literature review, we (1) summarize expected changes in [CO 2 ], climate, hydrology, and water management in dryland western North America, (2) consider likely effects of those changes on riparian ecosystems, and (3) identify critical knowledge gaps. Temperatures in the region are rising and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. Warmer temperatures in turn are altering river hydrology: advancing the timing of spring snow melt floods, altering flood magnitudes, and reducing summer and base flows. Direct effects of increased [CO 2 ] and climate change on riparian ecosystems may be similar to effects in uplands, including increased heat and water stress, altered phenology and species geographic distributions, and disrupted trophic and symbiotic interactions. Indirect effects due to climate-driven changes in streamflow, however, may exacerbate the direct effects of warming and increase the relative importance of moisture and fluvial disturbance as drivers of riparian ecosystem response to global change. Together, climate change and climate-driven changes in streamflow are likely to reduce abundance of dominant, native, early-successional tree species, favor herbaceous species and both drought-tolerant and late-successional woody species (including many introduced species), reduce habitat quality for many riparian animals, and slow litter decomposition and nutrient cycling. Climate-driven changes in human water demand and associated water management may intensify these effects. On some regulated rivers, however, reservoir releases could be managed to protect riparian ecosystem. Immediate research priorities include determining riparian species' environmental requirements and monitoring riparian ecosystems to allow rapid detection and response to undesirable ecological change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2023

U.S. Geological Survey science vision for native freshwater mussel research in the United States

Executive Summary North America is a global center for native freshwater mussel (order Unionida, hereinafter “mussels”) diversity, with more than 350 species. Mussels are among the most imperiled fauna on the planet. Reasons for both local and widespread declines in mussels are mostly unknown, although the threats may include habitat loss and fragmentation, diseases, environmental contaminants, altered flow regimes, migration barriers to larval hosts, non-native species, and climate change. Over the past three decades, research on mussels has been substantial. Nevertheless, current conservation and management efforts are limited by significant information gaps. For example, the effects of emerging stressors on mussels are largely unknown and identifying when habitats are rehabilitated and suitable for reestablishment of mussels remains challenging. Additionally, historical and current information on the distribution, taxonomy, and life histories are often unreliable or lacking altogether, and more reliable information is needed for many species. We identified focal research themes, goals, and objectives where research on mussels is needed based on information gaps identified through conversations with resource partners across local, regional, and national organizations. Research on biodiversity seeks to enhance the diversity of mussel species and populations to support healthy aquatic ecosystems. Research on emerging stressors seeks to improve the understanding of how mussel species, populations, and communities respond to emerging stressors, including environmental contaminants and climate change. Research on conservation seeks to enhance the recovery of species and populations and to identify data gaps limiting the conservation of mussels and their habitats. Mussels are in urgent need of proactive conservation because they are an integral part of our natural heritage, enhance biodiversity, and provide vital ecological services that support freshwater ecosystems. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been, and continues to be, a leader in mussel research. Although the USGS is well suited to address the broad-scale multidisciplinary research needed to conserve mussels, the USGS has had substantial loss of scientists with mussel expertise over the past 20 years. However, the breadth of the USGS expertise on mussels can be leveraged internally across other USGS mission and program areas and externally across research partners. Given the breadth and scope of the issues facing mussels across the United States, the research themes outlined in this science vision can only be accomplished through extensive collaborations between the USGS and the full spectrum of natural resource partners, including other Federal and State agencies, Tribal organizations, universities, industries, and nongovernmental organizations.

Circular↗

USGS2011

High throughput computing: a solution for scientific analysis

Public land management agencies continually face resource management problems that are exacerbated by climate warming, land-use change, and other human activities. As the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) works with managers in U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) agencies and other federal, state, and private entities, researchers are finding that the science needed to address these complex ecological questions across time and space produces substantial amounts of data. The additional data and the volume of computations needed to analyze it require expanded computing resources well beyond single- or even multiple-computer workstations. To meet this need for greater computational capacity, FORT investigated how to resolve the many computational shortfalls previously encountered when analyzing data for such projects. Our objectives included finding a solution that would: harness existing Computer Processing Units (CPUs) when they're idle to run multiple jobs concurrently, which reduces the overall processing time without requiring additional hardware; offer an effective, centralized job-management system; handle job failures due to hardware, software, or network interruptions (obviating the need to manually resubmit the job after each stoppage); be affordable; and most importantly, allow us to complete very large, complex analyses that otherwise would not even be possible. In short, we envisioned a job-management system that would take advantage of unused FORT CPUs within a local area network (LAN) to effectively distribute and run highly complex analytical processes. What we found was a solution that uses High Throughput Computing (HTC) and High Performance Computing (HPC) systems to do exactly that (Figure 1).

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USGS2019

Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems

Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an entire cycle through its normal range of variation. For some systems, the ecologically relevant period can be relatively short (eg, tidal systems), for others it can be decadal (eg, prairie wetlands). We explore the concept of alternative stable states in unstable systems using the highly dynamic wetland ecosystems of North America's Prairie Pothole Region. The communities in these wetland ecosystems transition through multiple states in response to decadal‐long climate oscillations that cyclically influence ponded‐water depth, permanence, and chemistry. The perspective gained by considering dynamic systems in the context of stable‐state theory allows for an increased understanding of how these systems respond to changing drivers that can push them past tipping points into alternative states. Incorporation of concepts inherent to stable‐state theory has been suggested as a key scientific element upon which to base sustainable environmental management.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

USGS2024

Disease-smart climate adaptation for wildlife management and conservation

Climate change is a well-documented driver and threat multiplier of infectious disease in wildlife populations. However, wildlife disease management and climate-change adaptation have largely operated in isolation. To improve conservation outcomes, we consider the role of climate adaptation in initiating or exacerbating the transmission and spread of wildlife disease and the deleterious effects thereof, as illustrated through several case studies. We offer insights into best practices for disease-smart adaptation, including a checklist of key factors for assessing disease risks early in the climate adaptation process. By assessing risk, incorporating uncertainty, planning for change, and monitoring outcomes, natural resource managers and conservation practitioners can better prepare for and respond to wildlife disease threats in a changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗