Trends in research and applied technology: National Park Service, man and the biosphere and natural resources
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Variability and trends in global drought
Monthly precipitation ( P ) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature ( T ) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.
Earth and Space Science↗
Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition
Forest ecosystems in eastern North America were in flux over the last several thousand years, well before Euro-American land clearance and the 20th-century onset of anthropogenic climate change. However, the magnitude and uncertainty of prehistoric vegetation change have been difficult to quantify because of the multiple ecological, dispersal, and sedimentary processes that govern the relationship between forest composition and fossil pollen assemblages. Here we extend STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal pollen-vegetation model, to estimate changes in forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States from about 2000 to 200 years ago. Using this approach, we identify areas of statistically and ecologically significant change. Between 2000 and 200 years ago, forest composition significantly changed across broad regions of north-central Wisconsin and Minnesota. Rates of compositional change varied spatially, and can be linked to previously reported events. The single largest change is the infilling of Tsuga canadensis in northern Wisconsin over the past 2000 years. Despite this range in-filling, the range limit of T. canadensis was largely stable, with modest expansion westward. The regional ecotone between temperate hardwood forests and northern mixed hardwood/conifer forests shifted southwestward by 15-20 km in Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin. Fraxinus, Ulmus, and other mesic hardwoods expanded in the Big Woods region of southern Minnesota. However, some areas showed no significant change, suggesting high complexity in the spatiotemporal patterns of past forest dynamics. The increasing density of paleoecological data networks and advances in statistical modeling approaches now enables the confident detection of subtle but significant changes in forest composition over the last 2000 years.
Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
Trends in inland commercial fisheries in the United States
Inland fisheries, defined as finfish caught in lakes, rivers, and other water bodies, provide economic value and a source of protein at local and international levels. However, no comprehensive compilation of U.S. inland commercial fisheries exists. We sought to obtain data across all 50 states during 1990–2015 and noted a small, but significant, decline in harvest. The minimum harvest averaged 41,427 tonnes during 2009–2015 and peaked in 1995 with a minimum harvest of 49,951 tonnes. During 2009–2015, harvest and taxonomic composition varied regionally: eastern interior (the highest regional harvest, dominated by coregonines and carp), western interior (carp and Clupeidae), Gulf (catfish and Clupeidae), Pacific (salmonines), and Atlantic (the lowest regional harvest, dominated by catfish and Clupeidae). Our data compilation of commercial landings was more than double the current limited national inland harvest statistics, which might be indicative of an under appreciation for the value of inland fisheries that can have consequences when policy decisions are made regarding competing sectors for water usage.
Fisheries Magazine↗
Future trends in transport and fate of diffuse contaminants in catchments, with special emphasis on stable isotope applications
A summary is provided of the first of a series of proposed Integrated Science Initiative workshops supported by the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme. The workshop brought together hydrologists, environmental chemists, microbiologists, stable isotope specialists and natural resource managers with the purpose of communicating new ideas on ways to assess microbial degradation processes and reactive transport at catchment scales. The focus was on diffuse contamination at catchment scales and the application of compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) in the assessment of biological degradation processes of agrochemicals. Major outcomes were identifying the linkage between water residence time distribution and rates of contaminant degradation, identifying the need for better information on compound specific microbial degradation isotope fractionation factors and the potential of CSIA in identifying key degradative processes. In the natural resource management context, a framework was developed where CSIA techniques were identified as practically unique in their capacity to serve as distributed integrating indicators of process across a range of scales (micro to diffuse) of relevance to the problem of diffuse pollution assessment. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Hydrological Processes↗
Evaluating trends using total impervious cover as a metric for degree of urbanisation
Impervious cover (IC) is a common metric for assessing the degree of urbanisation in watersheds. However, there are different methods for determining IC, and use of IC correlation with urban watershed response to hydrologic and geochemical inputs can be strongly influenced by the end members (IC below 10% and above 40%). The resolution of the imagery (e.g., 1 m vs. 30 m) used to measure IC can influence the estimate of IC, with differences up to 15% observed between these two resolutions for 21 watersheds along the east coast of the United States. The differences are greatest in the middle range between 10% and 40% IC. When using IC for correlation with urban watershed responses such as discharge flashiness or median solute concentrations, fits with R 2 between 0.4 and 0.78 were obtained when including end members of IC from 0% to 50%. However, when trying to distinguish behaviour between urban watersheds that fall in the middle ranges of IC, these same parameters do not correlate well with IC. Correlations fail significance tests, can switch direction, and fall below an R 2 of 0.1 without the end members of very low or very high IC. Because of improved accuracy, the finest resolution is preferred when available, and mixing IC estimation methods should be avoided. Furthermore, using regressions that include end members may not contribute to differentiating how IC in the 10%–40% range impacts hydrologic and geochemical responses in urban watersheds. Understanding this middle range of IC is important for comparing urban and suburban watersheds or planning watershed development to minimise impacts.
Delaware, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersy, New York, ↗
Erratum - Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming.
No abstract available.
Journal of Wildlife Management↗
Nonlinear multidecadal trends in organic matter dynamics in Midwest reservoirs are a function of variable hydroclimate
Dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) can influence biogeochemical processes in aquatic systems. An understanding, however, of the source, composition, and processes driving inland reservoir organic matter (OM) cycling at a regional scale over the long term is currently unexplored. Here, we quantify decadal patterns (> 20 yr) of DOM quantity and composition and POM in 40 reservoirs in the midcontinent United States. We built 184 Random Forest models to identify how the relative influence of watershed characteristics and limnological parameters on OM dynamics may vary over time and in synchrony with hydroclimatic anomalies. The reservoir OM quantity and composition varied nonmonotonically through time and in contrast to lake browning observed in the northern hemisphere. Reservoir DOM composition switched from humic and aromatic during wet summers to aliphatic, potentially autochthonous DOM during particularly prolonged dry summers in the mid-2000s. The shift in reservoir DOM quantity and composition could be attributed to the change in time-varying control of watershed and limnological factors mediated by the hydroclimatic conditions. Watershed control (e.g., percent crops) was predominant during wet summers, while the effect of reservoir morphology (e.g., maximum depth) and water quality parameters (e.g., Secchi depth, chlorophyll a ) were evident during dry summers. Thus, future predictions of drier conditions may promote “greening” with negative implications for reservoir water quality and treated drinking water. Considering the nonlinear nature of reservoir OM dynamics and its controls will help to better mitigate water quality issues in these constructed systems increasingly impacted by global changes.
Missouri↗
Temporal trends in macroscopic indicators of fish health in the South Branch of the Potomac River
Over recent decades, the South Branch of the Potomac River, WV, has experienced fish kills and episodes of suppressed health in adult fishes that have spanned small stretches to nearly 120 km of contiguous habitat. Although factors such as endocrine disruption, chemical contaminants, and infectious agents have been detected, no single causal mechanism has been identified. To gain information about the temporal nature of abnormalities, differences in life stage impacts, and potential risk factors, investigations of rank scores of macroscopic indicators of fish health were conducted utilizing seasonal and annual boat electrofishing surveys for Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu (SMB) and Golden Redhorse Moxostoma erythrurum (GDR). Gill and body abnormalities were assigned rank scores for each fish based on visual severity and were tested for correlation with seasonal climatic (flow and stream temperature) and environmental factors (stream pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity). Analyses between juveniles and adults for these species indicated body lesions were more common for adult GDR and gill lesions were more common for adult SMB. Significantly higher rank sums of adult gill abnormalities corresponded with heavy annual mortality of SMB from ages 2-3 (86%), the age at which this species transitions from juvenile to adult length. Higher ranks were frequently assigned to fish of both species for gill and body/fin lesions during summer and fall samples. Low stream discharges and lower pH units correlated with elevations of body raised lesion (GDR) and erosions (GDR and SMB), as well as erosions of gill lamellae (SMB). This study connects the disciplines of fisheries management, fish health, and environmental monitoring, providing information gained through tracking macroscopic conditions of these two indicator species for the focusing of future studies and better understanding risks to fish health.
West Virginia↗
Trends in pesticide use on soybean, corn and cotton since the introduction of major genetically modified crops in the United States
BACKGROUND Genetically modified (GM) varieties of soybean, corn and cotton have largely replaced conventional varieties in the United States. The most widely used applications of GM technology have been the development of crops that are resistant to a specific broad-spectrum herbicide (primarily glyphosate) or that produce insecticidal compounds within the plant itself. With the widespread adoption of GM crops, a decline in the use of conventional pesticides was expected. RESULTS There has been a reduction in the annual herbicide application rate to corn since the advent of GM crops, but the herbicide application rate is mostly unchanged for cotton. Herbicide use on soybean has increased. There has been a substantial reduction in the amount of insecticides used on both corn and cotton since the introduction of GM crops. CONCLUSIONS The observed changes in pesticide use are likely to be the result of many factors, including the introduction of GM crops, regulatory restrictions on some conventional pesticides, introduction of new pesticide technologies and changes in farming practices. In order to help protect human and environmental health and to help agriculture plan for the future, more detailed and complete documentation on pesticide use is needed on a frequent and ongoing basis.
Pest Management Science↗
Establishing spatial trends in water chemistry and stable isotopes (δ 15 N and δ 13 C) in the Elwha River prior to dam removal and salmon recolonization
Two high-head dams on the Elwha River in Washington State (USA) have changed the migratory patterns of resident and anadromous fish, limiting Pacific salmon to the lower 7.9 km of a river that historically supported large Pacific salmon runs. To document the effects of the dams prior to their removal, we measured carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of primary producers, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish, and water chemistry above, between and below the dams. We found that δ 15 N was significantly higher in fish, stoneflies, black flies, periphyton and macroalgae where salmon still have access. Fish and chloroperlid stoneflies were enriched in δ 13 C, but the values were more variable than in δ 15 N. For some taxa, there were also differences between the two river sections that lack salmon, suggesting that factors other than marine-derived nutrients are structuring longitudinal isotopic profiles. Consistent with trophic theory, macroalgae had the lowest δ 15 N, followed by periphyton, macroinvertebrates and fish, with a range of 6.9, 6.2 and 7.7‰ below, between, and above the dams, respectively. Water chemistry analyses confirmed earlier reports that the river is oligotrophic. Phosphorous levels in the Elwha were lower than those found in other regional rivers, with significant differences among regulated, unregulated and reference sections. The removal of these dams, among the largest of such projects ever attempted, is expected to facilitate the return of salmon and their marine-derived nutrients (MDN) throughout the watershed, possibly altering the food web structure, nutrient levels and stable isotope values that we documented.
Washington↗
Metals, organic compounds, and nutrients in Long Island Sound: sources, magnitudes, trends, and impacts
Long Island Sound (LIS) is a relatively shallow estuary with a mean depth of 20 m (maximum depth 49 m) and a unique hydrology and history of pollutant loading. Those factors have contributed to a wide variety of contamination problems in its muddy sediments, aquatic life and water column. The LIS sediments are contaminated with a host of legacy and more recently released toxic compounds and elements related to past and present wastewater discharges and runoff. These include non-point and storm water runoff and groundwater discharges, whose character has changed over the years along with the evolution of its watershed and industrial history. Major impacts have resulted from the copious amounts of nutrients discharged into LIS through atmospheric deposition (N), domestic and industrial waste water flows, fertilizer releases, and urban runoff. All these sources and their effects are in essence the result of human presence and activities in the watershed, and the severity of pollutant loading and their impacts generally scales with total population in the watersheds surrounding LIS. Environmental legislation passed since the mid-to late 1900s (e.g., Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act) has had a beneficial effect, however, and contaminant loadings for many toxic organic and inorganic chemicals and nutrients have diminished over the last few decades (O’Shea and Brosnan 2000; Trench, et al, 2012; O’Connor and Lauenstein 2006; USEPA 2007). Major strides have been made in reducing the inflow of nutrients into LIS, but cultural eutrophication is still an ongoing problem and nutrient control efforts will need to continue. Nonetheless, LIS is still a heavily human impacted estuary (an ‘Urban Estuary’, as described for San Francisco Bay by Conomos, 1979), and severe changes in water quality and sediment toxicity as well as ecosystem shifts have been witnessed over the relatively short period since European colonization in the early 1600s (Koppelman et al., 1976). The main rivers that discharge into LIS are the East River in the west, the Housatonic and Connecticut rivers on the north, and the Thames River at the northeastern end of LIS, with the Quinnipiac and several other smaller rivers also coming in from Connecticut. The East River is a tidal strait that connects LIS with New York Harbor through the heart of the New York City metropolitan region. The Housatonic, Quinnipiac, Connecticut and Thames river basins drain agricultural, urban and industrial lands in a watershed that extends from Connecticut north to Canada. The Sound receives contaminants from many sources within and outside its contributing watershed, including direct discharges from coastal industries, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), urban runoff, and atmospheric deposition. New England has a long history of industrial activity, with factories that once crowded its riverbanks and shores now having succumbed to economic forces that drove manufacturing overseas. Relict deposits with legacy pollutants in upland sediments persist and combine with modern runoff sources from an increasingly densely populated watershed, and continue to be a source of contaminants for LIS. While toxic exposure from legacy and active sources has diminished over the years as wastewater treatment has improved and industries closed or moved away, pockets of contamination still have consequences for many embayments and coves, particularly near urbanized areas of western LIS. Loading of nutrients and carbon have been of recent concern in LIS because of the extensive impacts observed since the mid-1980s. Excess nutrients not only create inhospitable conditions for higher forms of aquatic life through reduced oxygen levels and disrupting trophic dynamics, but also by altering the local biogeochemistry. As a result, the release of toxic substances into the water column may be enhanced in hypoxic waters, thus exerting a toxic effect or enhancing incorporation of toxic pollutants into the food we
Book chapter↗
Regional assessment of North America: Urbanization trends, biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem services
North America contains some of the most urbanized landscapes in the world. In the United States (U.S.) and Canada, approximately 80 % of the population is urban, with Mexico slightly less (Kaiser Family Foundation 2013). Population growth combined with economic growth has fueled recent urban land expansion in North America. Between 1970 and 2000, urban land area expanded at a rate of 3.31 % (Seto et al. 2011) creating unique challenges for conserving biodiversity and maintaining regional and local ecosystem services.
Book chapter↗
Using natural archives to track sources and long-term trends of pollution: an introduction
This book explores the myriad ways that environmental archives can be used to study the distribution and long-term trajectories of contaminants. The volume first focuses on reviews that examine the integrity of the historic record, including factors related to hydrology, post-depositional diffusion, and mixing processes. This is followed by a series of chapters dealing with the diverse archives available for long-term studies of environmental pollution.
Book chapter↗
Using natural archives to track sources and long-term trends of pollution: some final thoughts and suggestions for future directions
Newly produced, as well as some so-called legacy contaminants, continue to be released into the environment at an accelerated rate. Given the general lack of integrated, direct monitoring programs, the use of natural archival records of contaminants will almost certainly continue to increase. We conclude this volume with a short chapter highlighting some of our final thoughts, with a focus on a call to action to develop and apply methodologies to assess the fidelity of the archival record.
Book chapter↗
Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region
The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or more M???7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994-1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type "A" zones), while others show deceleration (type "D" zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes-in 1957, 1964, and 1965-originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years. ?? 1994 Birkha??user Verlag.
Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
Population trends, reproductive success, and organochlorine chemical contaminants in waterbirds nesting in Galveston Bay, Texas
The effects of environmental contaminants on the reproductive success of olivaceous cormorants ( Phalacrocorax olivaceus ), laughing gulls ( Larus atricilla ), and black skimmers ( Rhynchops niger ) nesting in Galveston Bay, Texas were investigated from 1980 through 1982. Populations of cormorants and gulls have remained stable in recent years, but skimmer numbers may have declined. Cormorants produced 1.9 to 2.8 young per pair in nests that remained active throughout the season. Gull and skimmer reproduction was seriously limited by storms and predation. DDE and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) residues in carcasses and eggs generally were below levels associated with chronic poisoning and reproductive problems in most species of birds. Possible exceptions were four black skimmer carcasses with DDE concentrations that ranged from 20 to 92 Μ g/g and one olivaceous cormorant carcass with 20 Μ g/g DDE. The generally low levels of dieldrin, chlordane, HCB, toxaphene, and heptachlor epoxide were below those know to affect avian reproduction and survival. Mean DDE residues in cormorant and gull eggs were less than 1.8 Μ g/g. The mean DDE residue in skimmer eggs was less than 3.3 Μ g/g; 12% of the skimmer eggs contained at least 12 Μ g/g DDE, a level known to cause reproductive problems in some avian species. DDE in the eggs of all species declined from 1.5- to 7-fold over the past decade. Polychlorinated biphenyl was detected in all gull and skimmer eggs and in 90% of the cormorant eggs. Residues of PCB in cormorant and skimmer eggs in 1980–82 were lower than in 1970, but the frequency of occurrence in gull eggs increased. Polychlorinated styrenes were recovered in 45% of the cormorant carcasses at levels below 1 Μ g/g. Eggshell thicknesses in all three species were similar to those of eggshells collected before the widespread use of DDT.
Texas↗
Concentration trends for lead and calcium-normalized lead in fish fillets from the Big River, a mining-contaminated stream in southeastern Missouri USA
Lead (Pb) and calcium (Ca) concentrations were measured in fillet samples of longear sunfish (Lepomis megalotis) and redhorse suckers (Moxostoma spp.) collected in 2005–2012 from the Big River, which drains a historical mining area in southeastern Missouri and where a consumption advisory is in effect due to elevated Pb concentrations in fish. Lead tends to accumulated in Ca-rich tissues such as bone and scale. Concentrations of Pb in fish muscle are typically low, but can become elevated in fillets from Pb-contaminated sites depending in part on how much bone, scale, and skin is included in the sample. We used analysis-of-covariance to normalize Pb concentration to the geometric mean Ca concentration (415 ug/g wet weight, ww), which reduced variation between taxa, sites, and years, as was the number of samples that exceeded Missouri consumption advisory threshold (300 ng/g ww). Concentrations of Pb in 2005–2012 were lower than in the past, especially after Ca-normalization, but the consumption advisory is still warranted because concentrations were >300 ng/g ww in samples of both taxa from contaminated sites. For monitoring purposes, a simple linear regression model is proposed for estimating Ca-normalized Pb concentrations in fillets from Pb:Ca molar ratios as a way of reducing the effects of differing preparation methods on fillet Pb variation.
Missouri↗