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USGS2022

From drought to deluge: Spatiotemporal variation in migration routing, survival, travel time and floodplain use of an endangered migratory fish

We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acoustic-tagged juvenile Sacramento river winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and found that survival decreased with decreasing river flows and increased water temperatures. We found that fish were likely to enter at a large floodplain during flood conditions and that survival in floodplain was comparable to the mainstem Sacramento river. Our study demonstrates the response of an endangered anadromous fish population to extreme spatial and temporal variability in habitat accessibility and quality. The general model framework we introduce here can be applied to telemetry of migratory fish through systems with multiple routes to efficiently estimate spatiotemporal variation in survival, travel time, and routing.

California↗

USGS2022

Estimating abundance, temporary emigration and the pattern of density dependence in a cyclic snowshoe hare population in Yukon, Canada

Estimates of demographic parameters based on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods may be biased when some individuals in the population are temporarily unavailable for capture (temporary emigration). We estimated snowshoe hare abundance, apparent survival, and probability of temporary emigration in a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben 1777) in the Yukon using Pollock’s robust design CMR model, and population density using spatially-explicit CMR models. Survival rates strongly varied among cyclic phases, seasons, and across five population cycles. We found strong evidence that temporary emigration was Markovian (i.e., non-random), suggesting that it varied among individuals that were temporary emigrant in the previous sampling period and those that were present in the sampled area. The probability of temporary emigration for individuals that were in the study area during the previous sampling occasion (γ´´) varied among cycles. Probability that individuals that were temporarily absent from the sampled area would remain temporary emigrants (γ´) showed strongly seasonal pattern, low in winter and high during summers. Snowshoe hare population density ranged from 0.017 (0.015–0.05) hares/ha to 4.43 (3.90–5.00) hares/ha and large-scale cyclical fluctuation. Autocorrelation functions and autoregressive analyses revealed that our study population exhibited statistically significant cyclic fluctuations, with a periodicity of 9-10 years.

Yukon↗

USGS2019

Balancing sampling intensity against spatial coverage for a community science monitoring programme

Community science is an increasingly integral part of biodiversity research and monitoring, often achieving broad spatial and temporal coverage but lower sampling intensity than studies conducted by professional scientists. When designing a community‐science monitoring programme, careful assessment of sampling designs that could be both feasible and successful at meeting programme goals is essential. Monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus ) are the focus of several successful community‐science projects in the U.S., but broader coverage is needed to monitor breeding areas and explain population declines observed in overwintering areas. The U.S. Monarch Conservation Science Partnership's Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program (IMMP) will representatively monitor monarchs and milkweed across North America. We performed a simulation‐based power analysis to predict trade‐offs between sampling breadth (number of sites and years) and sampling intensity (number of visits or subplots per site and year) for the IMMP. We evaluated whether each sampling design would produce sufficient statistical power to detect population trends and differences among land‐use sectors in densities of milkweed, monarch eggs, and adult monarchs. Sampling breadth had much stronger effects than sampling intensity on statistical power for all three monitoring targets. Depending on land‐use sector, monitoring 400–800 sites over 10–15 years would detect trends in densities of milkweed and adult monarchs, but no scenarios were successful for monarch eggs. Sampling 400–800 sites would also detect small (for adult monarchs) to large (for milkweed) differences among land‐use sectors in density of all three monitoring targets within the first 2–5 years. As more data become available from the IMMP, the sampling goals can be updated. Synthesis and applications . Careful sample design is an essential step in developing a successful monitoring programme. For monarchs and milkweed, we found that sampling breadth (number of sites and years) had a much stronger effect on statistical power than sampling intensity (number of visits or subsamples per site), suggesting field protocols could be tailored to maximize recruitment and retention of volunteers by minimizing the effort required to monitor each site. Many long‐term monitoring programmes might similarly benefit from evaluating the statistical trade‐offs between sampling breadth and intensity in their sampling designs.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2009

Spatial and seasonal variations in mercury methylation and microbial community structure in a historic mercury mining area, Yolo County, California

The relationships between soil parent lithology, nutrient concentrations, microbial biomass and community structure were evaluated in soils from a small watershed impacted by historic Hg mining. Upland and wetland soils, stream sediments and tailings were collected and analyzed for nutrients (DOC, SO 4 = , NO 3 - ), Hg, MeHg, and phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA). Stream sediment was derived from serpentinite, siltstone, volcanic rocks and mineralized serpentine with cinnabar, metacinnabar and other Hg phases. Soils from different parent materials had distinct PLFA biomass and community structures that are related to nutrient concentrations and toxicity effects of trace metals including Hg. The formation of MeHg appears to be most strongly linked to soil moisture, which in turn has a correlative relationship with PLFA biomass in wetland soils. The greatest concentrations of MeHg (> 0.5??ng g - 1 MeHg) were measured in wetland soils and soil with a volcanic parent (9.5-37????g g - 1 Hg). Mercury methylation was associated with sulfate-reducing bacteria, including Desulfobacter sp. and Desulfovibrio sp., although these organisms are not exclusively responsible for Hg methylation. Statistical models of the data demonstrated that soil microbial communities varied more with soil type than with season.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2013

A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record

A new database of volcanic fatalities is presented and analysed, covering the period 1600 to 2010 AD. Data are from four sources: the Smithsonian Institution, Witham (2005), CRED EM-DAT and Munich RE. The data were combined and formatted, with a weighted average fatality figure used where more than one source reports an event; the former two databases were weighted twice as strongly as the latter two. More fatal incidents are contained within our database than similar previous works; approximately 46% of the fatal incidents are listed in only one of the four sources, and fewer than 10% are in all four. 278,880 fatalities are recorded in the database, resultant from 533 fatal incidents. The fatality count is dominated by a handful of disasters, though the majority of fatal incidents have caused fewer than ten fatalities. Number and empirical probability of fatalities are broadly correlated with VEI, but are more strongly influenced by population density around volcanoes and the occurrence and extent of lahars (mudflows) and pyroclastic density currents, which have caused 50% of fatalities. Indonesia, the Philippines, and the West Indies dominate the spatial distribution of fatalities, and there is some negative correlation between regional development and number of fatalities. With the largest disasters removed, over 90% of fatalities occurred between 5 km and 30 km from volcanoes, though the most devastating eruptions impacted far beyond these distances. A new measure, the Volcano Fatality Index, is defined to explore temporal changes in societal vulnerability to volcanic hazards. The measure incorporates population growth and recording improvements with the fatality data, and shows prima facie evidence that vulnerability to volcanic hazards has fallen during the last two centuries. Results and interpretations are limited in scope by the underlying fatalities data, which are affected by under-recording, uncertainty, and bias. Attempts have been made to estimate the extent of these issues, and to remove their effects where possible. The data analysed here are provided as supplementary material. An updated version of the Smithsonian fatality database fully integrated with this database will be publicly available in the near future and subsequently incorporate new data.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

USGS2002

Spatial and temporal distribution of contaminated, effluent-affected sediment on the Palos Verdes margin, southern California

A sedimentary deposit on the continental margin near the Palos Verdes Peninsula, California is comprised of sewage effluent and geologic materials and is contaminated with metals, pesticides (including DDT and associated compounds), and PCBs. The deposit was mapped with subbottom acoustic profilers, and sediment cores were analyzed for geochemical and physical properties to determine the volume of the deposit and the distribution and mass of contaminants. Mapping showed that the deposit ranges up to 60-cm thick, has a total volume exceeding 9 million m3, and covers over 40 km2. Virtually the entire effluent-affected deposit is contaminated with DDT and PCBs. Nearly half of the area of the deposit lies on the continental slope, but 70-75% of the volume of the deposit and total mass of DDT reside on the continental shelf. Analysis of data collected biennially since 1981 by the Sanitation Districts of Los Angeles County show that the mass of DDT has apparently decreased at some stations but has remained essentially constant at others. Temporal changes m mass per unit area of DDT are not statistically significant (at the 90% confidence level) at the most contaminated locations over a 16-yr period. The results of this mapping effort were used as a basis for modeling efforts described elsewhere in this issue.

California↗

USGS2011

Variation in local abundance and species richness of stream fishes in relation to dispersal barriers: Implications for management and conservation

1.Barriers to immigration, all else being equal, should in principle depress local abundance and reduce local species richness. These issues are particularly relevant to stream-dwelling species when improperly designed road crossings act as barriers to migration with potential impacts on the viability of upstream populations. However, because abundance and richness are highly spatially and temporally heterogeneous and the relative importance of immigration on demography is uncertain, population- and community-level effects can be difficult to detect. 2.In this study, we tested the effects of potential barriers to upstream movements on the local abundance and species richness of a diverse assemblage of resident stream fishes in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia, U.S.A. Fishes were sampled using simple standard techniques above- and below road crossings that were either likely or unlikely to be barriers to upstream fish movements (based on physical dimensions of the crossing). We predicted that abundance of resident fishes would be lower in the upstream sections of streams with predicted impassable barriers, that the strength of the effect would vary among species and that variable effects on abundance would translate into lower species richness. 3.Supporting these predictions, the statistical model that best accounted for variation in abundance and species richness included a significant interaction between location (upstream or downstream of crossing) and type (passable or impassable crossing). Stream sections located above predicated impassable culverts had fewer than half the number of species and less than half the total fish abundance, while stream sections above and below passable culverts had essentially equivalent richness and abundance. 4.Our results are consistent with the importance of immigration and population connectivity to local abundance and species richness of stream fishes. In turn, these results suggest that when measured at appropriate scales (multiple streams within catchments), with simple protocols amenable to use by management agencies, differences in local abundance and species richness may serve as indicators of the extent to which road crossings are barriers to fish movement and help determine whether road-crossing improvements have restored connectivity to stream fish populations and communities. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS1999

Element concentrations in bed sediment of the Yellowstone River basin, Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming — A retrospective analysis

Chemical data for bed sediment were analyzed as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program investigation of the Yellowstone River Basin in parts of Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming. The primary data set consisted of about 13,000 samples collected during 1974-79 for the National Uranium Resource Evaluation program. Data were available for 50 elements, although not all samples were analyzed for all elements. Element concentrations varied spatially and were associated with geologic settings or ecoregions. Factor analysis indicated three groups of associated elements: factor 1 elements were strongly correlated with basaltic rocks, factor 2 elements were strongly correlated with granitic rocks, and factor 3 elements were strongly correlated with carbonate rocks. Scores for factor 1 were highest for bed-sediment samples associated with volcanic rocks of Tertiary and Cretaceous age in the Absaroka volcanic field and crystalline rocks of Precambrian age in the Beartooth Mountains. Scores for factor 2 were highest for samples associated with volcanic rocks of Quaternary age on the Yellowstone Plateau, crystalline rocks of Precambrian age, and sedimentary rocks of Tertiary age in the Wyoming Basin ecoregion. Scores for factor 3 were highest in samples associated with sedimentary rocks of Paleozoic age and volcanic rocks of Cretaceous and Tertiary age. Descriptive statistics are presented to serve as a baseline for element concentrations in bed sediment associated with eight geologic settings or ecoregions in the study unit. Some of the concentrations of chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc in bed-sediment samples from areas of crystalline rocks in the Beartooth Mountains and other formations in the western part of the study unit exceeded sediment-quality assessment values associated with toxic effects to aquatic life.

Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyomin↗

USGS2025

A monitoring framework to assess forest bird population response to landscape scale mosquito suppression using the Incompatible Insect Technique

The Birds, Not Mosquitoes Monitoring and Support Science Working Group detailed methods for monitoring the population response of Hawaiian forest birds during implementation of the Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) on the islands of Maui and Kauaʻi. The group prioritized methods for measuring the influence of mosquito suppression on populations within IIT treatment and control areas and identified focal species for IIT efficacy monitoring in birds. Three primary metrics were established to assess the impact of IIT on vulnerable species: population demography, density, and geographic range. Each metric can be evaluated using multiple methods. This report reviews those methods, with emphasis on approaches supported by pre-IIT baseline data and compatible with a before-after control-impact (BACI) study design for evaluating population responses over time. Focal avian species were selected based on population size estimates, fecundity, and disease susceptibility. We identified ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei), ʻiʻiwi (Drepanis coccinea), Maui ʻalauahio (Paroreomyza montana), Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens), Kauaʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis stejnegeri), Kauaʻi ʻelepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), and ʻanianiau (Magumma parva) as focal species for monitoring population level response to disease suppression. Populations of kiwikiu (Pseudonestor xanthophrys), ʻakikiki (Oreomystis bairdi), akekeʻe (Loxops caeruleirostris), and the ʻiʻiwi population on Kauaʻi may be too small (e.g., <100 individuals) to effectively monitor, and it is unlikely that sufficient data can be collected from these birds to show IIT efficacy in a relatively short time frame (i.e., 5–10 years). Despite the logistical challenges to IIT implementation, there is potential to maintain disease-free status in individual populations of birds. Indeed, the continued existence of these critically endangered species in the wild within or near IIT treatment areas could be considered an accomplishment of IIT, given the current predictions for their extinction in the wild within 5–10 years. Demographic monitoring methods, including territory mapping, nest monitoring, mist-netting, and mark-recapture studies, provide direct evidence of survivorship and reproductive output. When combined with disease surveillance, these approaches could provide the most robust evidence of increased survivorship and productivity resulting from avian malaria suppression via IIT. However, demographic studies require several years of monitoring to achieve statistically robust BACI comparisons of survivorship and are more difficult to implement relative to other approaches. Given that these field efforts are labor-intensive and heavily reliant on personnel availability and funding, demographic monitoring could be conducted when adequate resources permit. On both Maui and Kauaʻi, passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) was identified as a priority method for monitoring the range, occupancy, and relative abundance of focal species. Autonomous recording units (ARUs) can record bird vocalizations in remote areas for several months. Innovative machine learning techniques permit rapid and semi-autonomous identification of most endemic honeycreepers on each island, maximizing sampling efficiencies and minimizing data processing costs. We predict mosquito suppression could support expansion of focal species into areas where disease transmission is currently excluding these species and expect acoustic monitoring data of focal species to reflect these spatial patterns. Additionally, the relative occupancy and call densities can be monitored temporally and spatially to assess the efficacy of IIT for supporting positive growth in vulnerable bird species. It is not yet clear if PAM is more effective than other methods, such as distance sampling, for detecting trends in the densities of rare species. However, the increased detections resulting from the larger sample size per observation point using ARUs will likely improve accuracy in detecting changes in species’ ranges. Collection of during and after treatment data within the BACI design could help to provide critical information to track avian population response, recovery, and potential range expansion related to IIT efforts. Point-transect distance sampling (point-counts) was prioritized as a method for monitoring population densities of focal species. Extensive historical sampling across focal species’ ranges provides a robust baseline for detecting change. These counts provide updated population densities and can be used to assess the distribution of focal species within IIT treatment areas. However, detecting subtle population changes with traditional distance sampling requires intensive spatial and temporal effort and may be less effective for rare species. To improve resolution, density surface modeling can integrate multiple data sources (e.g., point-counts, PAM, spot-mapping, and resightings) to estimate species-specific densities at finer spatial scales, including within and outside IIT treatment areas. This integrated modeling approach allows for detailed comparisons and may reveal early signs of recovery, including recolonization of formerly occupied sites. A coordinated monitoring strategy can allow managers to evaluate the success of mosquito suppression as a conservation intervention and support adaptive management in the face of emerging challenges.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Detecting significant change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities in wilderness areas

A major challenge in the biological monitoring of stream ecosystems in protected wilderness areas is discerning whether temporal changes in community structure are significantly outside of a reference condition that represents natural or acceptable annual variation in population cycles. Otherwise sites could erroneously be classified as impaired. Long-term datasets are essential for understanding these trends, to ascertain whether any changes in community structure significantly beyond the reference condition are permanent shifts or with time move back to within previous limits. To this end, we searched for long-term (>8 years) quantitative data sets of macroinvertebrate communities in wadeable rivers collected by similar methods and time of year in protected wilderness areas with minimal anthropogenic disturbance. Four geographic areas with datasets that met these criteria in the USA were identified, namely: McLaughlin Nature Reserve in California (1 stream), Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Tennesse-North Carolina (14 streams), Wind River Wilderness Areas in Wyoming (3 streams) and Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska (6 streams). Two statistical approaches were applied: Taxonomic Distinctness (TD) to describe changes in diversity over time and non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) to describe changes over time in community persistence (Jaccards Index) and community stability (Bray–Curtis Index). Control charts were used to determine if years in MDS plots were significantly outside a reference condition. For Hunting Creek, TD showed three years outside natural variation which could be attributed to severe hydrological events but years outside the natural-variation funnel at sites in other geographical areas were inconsistent and could not be explained by environmental variables. TD identified simulated severe pollutant events which caused the removal of entire invertebrate assemblages but not simulated water temperature shifts. Within a region, both MDS analyses typically identified similar years as exceeding reference condition variation, illustrating the utility of the approach for identifying wider spatial scale effects that influence more than one stream. MDS responded to both simulated water temperature stress and a pollutant event, and generally outlying years on MDS plots could be explained by environmental variables, particularly higher precipitation. Multivariate control charts successfully identified whether shifts in community structure identified by MDS were significant and whether the shift represented a press disturbance (long-term change) or a pulse disturbance. We consider a combination of TD and MDS with control charts to be a potentially powerful tool for determining years significantly outside of a reference condition variation.

Alaska, California, North Carolina, Tennesse, Wyom↗

USGS2015

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia’s cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation ( R 2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships ( R 2 < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation ( R 2 ) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

USGS2021

A framework for assessing the ability to detect macroscale effects on fish growth

Various abiotic and biotic factors affect fish and their habitats at macroscales. For example, changes in global temperatures will likely alter demographic rates, including growth. However, to date, there is no statistical framework for assessing the ability to detect macroscale effects on fish growth under different sampling scenarios. We provide a generalized framework for calculating the frequentist and Bayesian power of detecting macroscale effects on fish growth. We illustrate this framework for a range of sampling scenarios that varied in the number of fish sampled per lake, the number of lakes sampled, and the magnitude of the temperature effect on growth for two case study species. However, the framework can be adapted to investigate other species, sampling scenarios, and environmental drivers. The ability to detect macroscale effects was more affected by the number of lakes sampled rather than the number of fish sampled from each lake. Confidently detecting macroscale effects likely requires sampling hundreds of lakes. This was true for both case study species, despite different life histories and extents of spatial variability in growth.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the midwestern United States

In this report, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models developed to describe long-term (2000–14) mean-annual streamflow, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended-sediment (SS) transport in streams of the Midwestern part of the United States (the Mississippi River, Great Lakes, and Red River of the North Basins) are described. The nutrient and suspended-sediment models have a base year of 2012, which means they were developed based on source inputs and management practices similar to those existing during or near 2012 and average hydrological conditions detrended to 2012 (2000–14), whereas the streamflow model has base years of 2000–14, which means it was developed based on the average input precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration from 2000 to 2014. In developing the models, several updates and improvements were made to the data inputs and statistical approaches used to calibrate/develop the models from those used in the previous 2002 SPARROW models. The 2012 SPARROW models were constructed using a higher resolution stream network, which resulted in a mean catchment size of 2.7 square kilometers compared to 480 square kilometers in the 2002 models; more detailed and updated wastewater treatment plant contribution estimates; inputs from background phosphorus sources that were not included in the 2002 model; and more accurate loads for calibration that were computed using a modified Beale ratio-estimator technique whenever no trend in load was determined. Statistical approaches were added to compensate for the unequal effect of each monitoring site during the calibration process by adjusting for the fraction of the basin included in other upstream monitored sites (nested share) and thinning the calibration sites if a negative statistical correlation between nearby sites was determined. Results from 2012 SPARROW models describe how much of each water, TN, TP, and SS source was delivered to the stream network, and the major landscape factors that affected their delivery. Atmospheric deposition and natural (background) sources of TN and TP, respectively, were the dominant sources in anthropogenically unaffected areas (especially in the Rocky Mountains and north-central areas of the Midwest), whereas fertilizers, manure, and fixation were dominant sources in agricultural areas, especially in the Corn Belt and near the Mississippi River. Urban sources of TN and TP were typically localized, but they were still important for some large areas, especially the Lake Erie Basin. All of the land-to-water delivery variables in the nutrient and sediment SPARROW models, such as runoff, soil erodibility, basin slope, and the amount of tile drains, are commonly included in process-driven models. In the SPARROW TN and TP models, best management practices (BMPs) reduced the delivery of these nutrients to streams. Long-term mean-annual flows and nutrient and sediment loads were simulated in streams throughout the Midwest. The simulated flows from the SPARROW flow model were used in the SPARROW TN, TP, and SS models to help describe nutrient and sediment transport from the watershed and through the stream network. Outputs from the TN, TP, and SS models describe loads and yields of these constituents throughout the Midwest, and from major drainage basins throughout the Midwest. Highest TN, TP, and SS yields and delivered yields were from the Lake Erie, Ohio River, Upper Mississippi River, and Lower Mississippi River Basins, whereas lowest yields were spread over most other areas. Losses during downstream delivery resulted in part of the TN, TP, and SS that reach the stream network not reaching the downstream receiving bodies: 14, 15, and 28 percent of the TN, TP, and SS, respectively, are lost during delivery to the Great Lakes and 19, 23, and 52 percent of the TN, TP, and SS, respectively, are lost during delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. The largest losses of nutrients and sediments during transport were in the Missouri and Arkansas River Basins. Information from these SPARROW models can help guide nutrient and sediment reduction strategies throughout the Midwest. Model results provide information on what may be the most appropriate general type of actions to reduce total loading by describing the relative importance of each source, and where to most efficiently place the efforts to reduce loading by describing the distribution of nutrient and sediment loading. By implementing management efforts addressing the major sources of the loads in areas contributing the highest loads, it may be possible to reduce nutrient loading throughout the Mississippi River Basin and thus reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico; reduce nutrient loading into lakes, and thus reduce the occurrence of harmful algal blooms; and reduce sediment losses, and thus improve the benthic habitat in streams and rivers throughout the Midwest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Spatial variability in water-balance model performance in the conterminous United States

A monthly water-balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil-moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R-square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long-term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low-flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R-square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2011

Long-term post-fire effects on spatial ecology and reproductive output of female Agassiz’s desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) at a wind energy facility near Palm Springs, California, USA

We studied the long-term response of a cohort of eight female Agassiz’s desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) during the first 15 years following a large fire at a wind energy generation facility near Palm Springs, California, USA. The fire burned a significant portion of the study site in 1995. Tortoise activity areas were mapped using minimum convex polygons for a proximate post-fire interval from 1997 to 2000, and a long-term post-fire interval from 2009 to 2010. In addition, we measured the annual reproductive output of eggs each year and monitored the body condition of tortoises over time. One adult female tortoise was killed by the fire and five tortoises bore exposure scars that were not fatal. Despite predictions that tortoises would make the short-distance movements from burned to nearby unburned habitats, most activity areas and their centroids remained in burned areas for the duration of the study. The percentage of activity area burned did not differ significantly between the two monitoring periods. Annual reproductive output and measures of body condition remained statistically similar throughout the monitoring period. Despite changes in plant composition, conditions at this site appeared to be suitable for survival of tortoises following a major fire. High productivity at the site may have buffered tortoises from the adverse impacts of fire if they were not killed outright. Tortoise populations at less productive desert sites may not have adequate resources to sustain normal activity areas, reproductive output, and body conditions following fire.

California↗

USGS2005

Distribution patterns of mercury in Lakes and Rivers of northeastern North America

We assembled 831 data points for total mercury (Hg t ) and 277 overlapping points for methyl mercury (CH 3 Hg + ) in surface waters from Massachussetts, USA to the Island of Newfoundland, Canada from State, Provincial, and Federal government databases. These geographically indexed values were used to determine: (a) if large-scale spatial distribution patterns existed and (b) whether there were significant relationships between the two main forms of aquatic Hg as well as with total organic carbon (TOC), a well know complexer of metals. We analyzed the catchments where samples were collected using a Geographical Information System (GIS) approach, calculating catchment sizes, mean slope, and mean wetness index. Our results show two main spatial distribution patterns. We detected loci of high Hg t values near urbanized regions of Boston MA and Portland ME. However, except for one unexplained exception, the highest Hg t and CH 3 Hg + concentrations were located in regions far from obvious point sources. These correlated to topographically flat (and thus wet) areas that we relate to wetland abundances. We show that aquatic Hg t and CH 3 Hg + concentrations are generally well correlated with TOC and with each other. Over the region, CH 3 Hg + concentrations are typically approximately 15% of Hg t . There is an exception in the Boston region where CH 3 Hg + is low compared to the high Hg t values. This is probably due to the proximity of point sources of inorganic Hg and a lack of wetlands. We also attempted to predict Hg concentrations in water with statistical models using catchment features as variables. We were only able to produce statistically significant predictive models in some parts of regions due to the lack of suitable digital information, and because data ranges in some regions were too narrow for meaningful regression analyses.

Maine, Massachusetts, New Brunswick, New Hampshire↗

USGS2018

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Prairie Pothole Regino↗

USGS2003

Preliminary preview for a geographic and monitoring program project; a review of point source-nonpoint source effluent trading/offset systems in watersheds

Watershed-based trading and offset systems are being developed to improve policy-maker?s and regulator?s ability to assess nonpoint source impacts in watersheds and to evaluate the efficacy of using market-incentive programs for preserving environmental quality. An overview of the history of successful and failed trading programs throughout the United States suggests that certain political, economic, and scientific conditions within a temporal and spatial setting help meet water quality standards. The current lack of spontaneous trading among dischargers does not mean that a marketable permit trading system is an inherently inefficient regulatory approach. Rather, its infrequent use is the result of institutional and informational barriers. Improving and refining the earth science information and technologies may help determine whether trading is a suitable policy for improving water quality. However, it is debatable whether or not environmental information is the limiting factor. This paper reviews additional factors affecting the potential for instituting a trading policy. The motivation for investigating and reviewing the history of offsets and trading was inspired by a project in the preliminary stages being developed by U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center and the Environmental Protection Agency Region IX. An offset feasibility study will be an integrated, map-based approach that incorporates environmental, economic, and statistical information to investigate the potential for using offsets to meet mercury Total Maximum Daily Loads in the Sacramento River watershed. A regional water-quality offset program is being studied that may help known point sources reduce mercury loading more cost effectively by the remediation of abandoned mines or other diffuse sources as opposed to more costly treatment at their own sites. An efficient offset program requires both a scientific basis and methods to translate that science into a regulatory decision framework.

Open-File Report↗