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Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver actionable information to decisionmakers that helps promote the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The report discusses briefly the ERP’s evolution and scope, its organization structure, describes key products and deliverables, their efforts to engage with external partners, and its strategy and vision in conducting range of engineering and risk research. The research topics outlined in this report, as developed by the ERP, may be used to facilitate project planning activities during the next 10 years and serve as a longer-term planning resource for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and Geologic Hazards Science Center.

Circular↗

Geophysical and sampling data from the inner continental shelf: Northern Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) have cooperated to map approximately 480 km2 of the inner continental shelf in northern Cape Cod Bay, MA. This report contains geophysical and sampling data collected by the USGS during five research cruises between 2006 and 2008. The geophysical data include (1) swath bathymetry from interferometric sonar, (2) acoustic backscatter from interferometric and sidescan sonars, and (3) subsurface stratigraphy and structure from seismic-reflection profilers. The seafloor sampling data include sediment samples, photographs, and video tracklines. These spatial data support research on the influence that sea-level change and sediment supply have on coastal evolution and help identify the type, distribution, and quality of subtidal marine habitats within the coastal zone of Massachusetts.

Open-File Report↗

Monitoring and research on the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the Pine Nut Mountains, California and Nevada—Study progress report, 2011–15

The Bi-State distinct population segment (DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) that occurs along the Nevada–California border was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in October 2013. However, in April 2015, the FWS determined that the Bi-State DPS no longer required protection under the ESA and withdrew the proposed rule to list the Bi-State DPS (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2015). The Bi-State DPS occupies portions of Alpine, Mono, and Inyo Counties in California, and Douglas, Esmeralda, Lyon, Carson City, and Mineral Counties in Nevada. Unique threats facing this population include geographic isolation, expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ), anthropogenic activities, and recent changes in predator communities. Estimating population vital rates, identifying seasonal habitat, quantifying threats, and identifying movement patterns are important first steps in developing effective sage-grouse management and conservation plans. During 2011–15, we radio- and Global Positioning System (GPS)-marked (2012–14 only) 44, 47, 17, 9, and 3 sage-grouse, respectively, for a total of 120, in the Pine Nut Mountains Population Management Unit (PMU). No change in lek attendance was detected at Mill Canyon (maximum=18 males) between 2011 and 2012; however, 1 male was observed in 2014 and no males were observed in 2013 and 2015. Males were observed near Bald Mountain in 2013, making it the first year this lek was observed to be active during the study period. Males were observed at a new site in the Buckskin Range in 2014 during trapping efforts and again observed during surveys in 2015. Findings indicate that pinyon-juniper is avoided by sage-grouse during every life stage. Nesting females selected increased sagebrush cover, sagebrush height, and understory horizontal cover, and brood-rearing females selected similar areas, but also preferred increased perennial forb abundance. Using maximum likelihood estimation, nest survival for the Pine Nut Mountains PMU during 2011–14 was 23.8 percent (95-percent confidence interval [CI]=0.3–40.6 percent) and appeared lower in comparison to the average 42 percent nest success for sage-grouse range-wide. Brood survival for 50-day brood-rearing phase in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU during 2011–14 was 53.8 percent (95-percent CI=30.0–73.4 percent). Adult survival during 2011–15 was 67.4 percent (95-percent CI=56.1–76.5 percent). During 2011–14, 696 raptor/raven surveys were completed and results indicate a greater number of raven detections ( n =464) in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU than at other study areas in Nevada. These data will be used to develop a predator index. We conducted a more minimal monitoring effort of sage-grouse populations during the 2015 field season, which included trapping efforts, general telemetry, brood monitoring, and GPS monitoring. Nest monitoring, microhabitat sampling, and raptor/raven surveys were not conducted in the 2015 season. Deployment of GPS transmitters has expanded our knowledge of movement corridors and fine-scale movement patterns by sage-grouse in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU. Movement corridors between seasonal habitats were identified with one sage-grouse traveling greater than 100 kilometers south to the Bodie Mountains in California for the winter season. The use of GPS technology to monitor movements in conjunction with intensive field efforts will be important in developing habitat models and maps for the Pine Nut Mountains PMU.

California, Nevada↗

Golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) habitat selection as a function of land use and terrain, San Diego County, California

Beginning in 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with Bloom Biological, Inc., began telemetry research on golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) captured in the San Diego, Orange, and western Riverside Counties of southern California. This work was supported by the San Diego Association of Governments, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Since 2014, we have tracked more than 40 eagles, although this report focuses only on San Diego County eagles. An important objective of this research is to develop habitat selection models for golden eagles. Here we provide predictions of population-level habitat selection for golden eagles in San Diego County based on environmental covariates related to land use and terrain.

California↗

Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

Water Resources Research↗

The Ecology of Parasite-Host Interactions at Montezuma Well National Monument, Arizona - Appreciating the Importance of Parasites

Although parasites play important ecological roles through the direct interactions they have with their hosts, historically that fact has been underappreciated. Today, scientists have a growing appreciation of the scope of such impacts. Parasites have been reported to dominate food webs, alter predator-prey relationships, act as ecosystem engineers, and alter community structure. In spite of this growing awareness in the scientific community, parasites are still often neglected in the consideration of the management and conservation of resources and ecosystems. Given that at least half of the organisms on earth are probably parasitic, it should be evident that the ecological functions of parasites warrant greater attention. In this report, we explore different aspects of parasite-host relationships found at a desert spring pond within Montezuma Well National Monument, Arizona. In three separate but related chapters, we explore interactions between a novel amphipod host and two parasites. First, we identify how host behavior responds to this association and how this association affects interactions with both invertebrate non-host predators and a vertebrate host predator. Second, we look at the human dimension, investigating how human recreation can indirectly affect patterns of disease by altering patterns of vertebrate host space use. Finally - because parasites and diseases are of increasing importance in the management of wildlife species, especially those that are imperiled or of management concern - the third chapter argues that research would benefit from increased attention to the statistical analysis of wildlife disease studies. This report also explores issues of statistical parasitology, providing information that may better inform those designing research projects and analyzing data from studies of wildlife disease. In investigating the nature of parasite-host interactions, the role that relationships play in ecological communities, and how human activities alter these associations, scientists usually make inferences by methods of statistical hypotheses testing. This type of hypothesis testing places additional importance on the analysis and interpretation of parasite-host interactions. We address these ideas in this report, focusing on the following questions: (1) How do two parasites with complex life cycles alter the behavior of a novel amphipod host, and how do host and non-host predators respond to infected amphipod prey? (2) Does human recreation affect spatial patterns of infection in an otherwise natural ecosystem? (3) How is hypothesis-testing applied in studies of wildlife disease? (4) What conclusions can we make about the relative usefulness of these methodologies? and (5) How can the analysis and interpretation of wildlife disease studies be improved? Each chapter of this report contains its own literature-cited section, with tables included in appendixes at the end of the full report.

Open-File Report↗

Volcanoes

Volcanoes destroy and volcanoes create. The catastrophic eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980, made clear the awesome destructive power of a volcano. Yet, over a time span longer than human memory and record, volcanoes have played a key role in forming and modifying the planet upon which we live. More than 80 percent of the Earth's surface—above and below sea level—is of volcanic origin. Gaseous emissions from volcanic vents over hundreds of millions of years formed the Earth's earliest oceans and atmosphere, which supplied the ingredients vital to evolve and sustain life. Over geologic eons, countless volcanic eruptions have produced mountains, plateaus, and plains, which subsequent erosion and weathering have sculpted into majestic landscapes and formed fertile soils. Ironically, these volcanic soils and inviting terranes have attracted, and continue to attract, people to live on the flanks of volcanoes. Thus, as population density increases in regions of active or potentially active volcanoes, mankind must become increasingly aware of the hazards and learn not to "crowd" the volcanoes. People living in the shadow of volcanoes must live in harmony with them and expect, and should plan for, periodic violent unleashings of their pent-up energy. This booklet presents a generalized summary of the nature, workings, products, and hazards of the common types of volcanoes around the world, along with a brief introduction to the techniques of volcano monitoring and research.

General Interest Publication↗

Alaska Science Center: Providing Timely, Relevant, and Impartial Study of the Landscape, Natural Resources, and Natural Hazards for Alaska and Our Nation

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Nation's largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, has studied the natural features of Alaska since its earliest geologic expeditions in the 1800s. The USGS Alaska Science Center (ASC), with headquarters in Anchorage, Alaska, studies the complex natural science phenomena of Alaska to provide scientific products and results to a wide variety of partners. The complexity of Alaska's unique landscapes and ecosystems requires USGS expertise from many science disciplines to conduct thorough, integrated research.

Fact Sheet↗

Delivering climate science about the Nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth’s climate—temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables—pose significant challenges to our Nation’s natural resources. Managers of land, water, and living resources require an understanding of the impacts of climate change—which exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat alteration and invasive species—in order to design effective response strategies. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to address environmental challenges resulting from climate and land-use change and to provide natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has established eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and has invested over $93 million (through fiscal year 2013) in cutting-edge climate change research.

Fact Sheet↗

User's Manual for the National Water-Quality Assessment Program Invertebrate Data Analysis System (IDAS) Software: Version 3

The Invertebrate Data Analysis System (IDAS) software provides an accurate, consistent, and efficient mechanism for analyzing invertebrate data collected as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program and stored in the Biological Transactional Database (Bio-TDB). The IDAS software is a stand-alone program for personal computers that run Microsoft (MS) Windows?. It allows users to read data downloaded from Bio-TDB and stored either as MS Excel? or MS Access? files. The program consists of five modules. The Edit Data module allows the user to subset, combine, delete, and summarize community data. The Data Preparation module allows the user to select the type(s) of sample(s) to process, calculate densities, delete taxa based on laboratory processing notes, combine lifestages or keep them separate, select a lowest taxonomic level for analysis, delete rare taxa, and resolve taxonomic ambiguities. The Calculate Community Metrics module allows the user to calculate over 130 community metrics, including metrics based on organism tolerances and functional feeding groups. The Calculate Diversities and Similarities module allows the user to calculate nine diversity and eight similarity indices. The Data export module allows the user to export data to other software packages and produce tables of community data that can be imported into spreadsheet and word-processing programs. Though the IDAS program was developed to process invertebrate data downloaded from USGS databases, it will work with other data sets that are converted to the USGS (Bio-TDB) format. Consequently, the data manipulation, analysis, and export procedures provided by the IDAS program can be used by anyone involved in using benthic macroinvertebrates in applied or basic research.

Open-File Report↗

Flooding of the Androscoggin River during December 18-19, 2003, in Canton, Maine

The Androscoggin River flooded the town of Canton, Maine in December 2003, resulting in damage to and (or) evacuation of 44 homes. Streamflow records at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations at Rumford (USGS station identification number 01054500) and Auburn (01059000) were used to estimate the peak streamflow for the Androscoggin in the town of Canton for this flood (December 18-19, 2003). The estimated peak flood streamflow at Canton was approximately 39,800 ft3/s, corresponding to an estimated recurrence interval of 4.4 years; however, an ice jam downstream from Canton Point on December 18-19 obstructed river flow resulting in a high-water elevation commensurate with an open-water flood approximately equal to a 15-year event. The high water-surface elevations attained during the December 18-19 flood event in Canton were higher than the expected open-water flood water-surface elevations; this verified the assumption that the water-surface elevation was augmented due to the downstream ice jam The change in slope of the riverbed from upstream of Canton to the impoundment at the downstream corporate limits, and the river bend near Stevens Island are principal factors in ice-jam formation near Canton. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Ice Jam Database indicates five ice-jam-related floods (including December 2003) for the town of Canton: March 13, 1936; January 1978; March 12, 1987; January 29, 1996; and December 18-19, 2003. There have been more ice-jam-related flood events in Canton than these five documented events, but the exact number and nature of ice jams in Canton cannot be determined without further research.

Open-File Report↗

National Geomagnetism Program: Current Status & Five-Year Plan, 2006-2010

Executive Summary: The U.S. Geological Survey's Geomagnetism Program serves the scientific community and the broader public by collecting and distributing magnetometer data from an array of ground-based observatories and by conducting scientific analysis on those data. Preliminary, variational time-series can be collected and distributed in near-real time, while fully calibrated, absolute time-series are distributed after processing. The data are used by the civilian and military parts of the Federal Government, by private industry, and by academia, for a wide variety of purposes of both immediately practical importance and long-term scientific interest, including space-weather diagnosis and related hazard mitigation, mapping of the magnetic field and measurement of its activity, and research on the nature of the Earth's interior and the near-Earth space environment. This document reviews the current status of the Program, in terms of its situation within the Government and within the scientific community; summarizes the Program's operations, its staffing situation, and its facilities; describes the diversity of uses of Program magnetometer data; and presents a plan for the next 5 years for enhancing the Program's data-based services, developing products, and conducting scientific research.

Open-File Report↗

Uses of conventional aerial photography in urban areas - review and bibliography

This paper is divided into two parts. Part I presents a review of some of the past uses of aerial photography in urban areas. The empirical studies reviewed are divided into two broad categories depending on whether inventory compilation is by direct or indirect observation. Studies using inventory by direct observation are further divided into land-use studies and transportation studies. Part II identifies some problem areas for future research.

Open-File Report↗

Anisotropic Velocities of Gas Hydrate-Bearing Sediments in Fractured Reservoirs

During the Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 (NGHP-01), one of the richest marine gas hydrate accumulations was discovered at drill site NGHP-01-10 in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, offshore of southeast India. The occurrence of concentrated gas hydrate at this site is primarily controlled by the presence of fractures. Gas hydrate saturations estimated from P- and S-wave velocities, assuming that gas hydrate-bearing sediments (GHBS) are isotropic, are much higher than those estimated from the pressure cores. To reconcile this difference, an anisotropic GHBS model is developed and applied to estimate gas hydrate saturations. Gas hydrate saturations estimated from the P-wave velocities, assuming high-angle fractures, agree well with saturations estimated from the cores. An anisotropic GHBS model assuming two-component laminated media - one component is fracture filled with 100-percent gas hydrate, and the other component is the isotropic water-saturated sediment - adequately predicts anisotropic velocities at the research site.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

What is Falco Altaicus Menzbier?

The systematics of the Altay falcon (Falco altaicus/lorenzi) remains enigmatic. First reported in 1811, it has been treated as a gyrfalcon (F. rusticolus), a saker (F. cherrug), and two separate species (F. lorenzi and F. altaicus). Of 53 'altaicus' specimens examined, at least two are misidentified gyrfalcons, many are typical sakers, but 34 (the core group) are considered to be the true Altay falcon type. Adults have red, brown, and gray color morphs. The red (backed) morph closely resembles some eastern sakers; the chocolate and gray morphs resemble respective gyrfalcon morphs. While the true affinities of the Altay falcon will be resolved by molecular genetics, the ecological, geographical, and morphological information suggest that the core group represents a gyrfalcon-saker cross that is being swamped through back crosses with the saker. The breeding range of the core group (i.e., the Altay and Sayan Mountains) is much smaller than previously reported.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

Alaska natural gas hydrate production testing: Test site selection, characterization and testing operations

This Interagency Agreement supports the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its research partners in understanding, predicting, and testing the recoverability and potential production characteristics of onshore natural gas hydrate in the Greater Prudhoe Bay area on the Alaska North Slope (ANS: Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk River, and Milne Point areas) or other areas deemed suitable by DOE and USGS for potential long-term production testing of gas hydrate. Researchers will accomplish these tasks by evaluating the occurrence and resource potential of the known gas hydrate accumulations in the Eileen trend. Geologic, geochemical, and geophysical (2-D and 3-D seismic surveys) data from northern Alaska and other data sources, including wireline and mud log surveys of wells of opportunity, will be used to assess the occurrence and nature of the known gas hydrate accumulations. The project involves two primary areas of effort: the geologic and engineering assessment of the Eileen gas-hydrate accumulation and support of DOE and its industry partners in evaluating, planning, and preparing for drilling and testing gas hydrate research wells in northern Alaska.

Alaska↗

Geodynamic Evolution of the Transantarctic Mountains and the West Antarctica Rift System: Proceedings of a workshop

The workshop "Geodynamic Evolution of the Transantarctic Mountains and West Antarctic Rift System" was convened to provide a forum for discussion of future research on Antarctic rifting processes. The workshop drew on the expertise of thirty-one geologists and geophysicists currently involved in Antarctic research or investigating other rift systems. The general goal of the workshop was to foster enhanced cooperation and communication between the Antarctic geologic community, the Antarctic geophysical community and the global community studying the processes of rifting and rift-related uplift. Workshop sessions were designed to critically examine process-oriented rift models, with particular emphasis on identifying geological and geophysical tests of these models that can be applied to the unique Antarctic setting. Recommendations for future research are included in the workshop proceedings.

Report↗

Locating and managing peninsulas for nesting ducks

The purpose of this extension bulletin is to guide the management of nesting ducks on peninsulas on public and private lands. Managing peninsulas for ducks is a relatively new strategy that was developed in the grassland region of western North America. Information contained in this bulletin is primarily from studies conducted by biologists working at the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center.

Report↗