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Topographic change detection at select archeological sites in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, 2007-2010

Human occupation in Grand Canyon, Arizona, dates from at least 11,000 years before present to the modern era. For most of this period, the only evidence of human occupation in this iconic landscape is provided by archeological sites. Because of the dynamic nature of this environment, many archeological sites are subject to relatively rapid topographic change. Quantifying the extent, magnitude, and cause of such change is important for monitoring and managing these archeological sites. Such quantification is necessary to help inform the continuing debate on whether and how controlled releases from Glen Canyon Dam, located immediately upstream of Grand Canyon National Park, are affecting site erosion rates, artifact transport, and archeological resource preservation along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Although long-term topographic change resulting from a variety of natural processes is inherent in the Grand Canyon region, continued erosion of archeological sites threatens both the archeological resources and our future ability to study evidence of past cultural habitation. Thus, this subject is of considerable interest to National Park Service managers and other stakeholders in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. Understanding the causes and effects of archeological site erosion requires a knowledge of several factors, including the location, timing, and magnitude of the changes occurring in relation to archeological resources, the rates of change, and the relative contribution of potential causes. These potential causes include sediment depletion associated with managed flows from Glen Canyon Dam, site-specific weather and overland flow patterns, visitor impacts, and long-term regional climate change. To obtain this information, highly accurate, spatially specific data are needed from sites undergoing change. Using terrestrial lidar techniques, and building upon three previous surveys of archeological sites performed in 2006 and 2007, we collected two new datasets in April and September 2010 and processed and improved upon existing methods to generate high-accuracy (3 to 5 cm vertical change threshold) topographic change-detection maps for 10 survey areas encompassing 9 archeological sites along the Colorado River corridor. We also used terrestrial lidar techniques to investigate several other metrics for studying archeological site stability, including monitoring cultural structures and artifacts and remotely measuring cryptobiotic soil crust areas. Our topographic change results indicate that 9 of 10 survey areas showed signs of either erosion, deposition, or both during the 2007–2010 time interval and that these changes can be linked to a variety of geomorphic processes, primarily overland flow gullying and aeolian sand transport. In several cases, large (>50 cm) vertical change occurred, and in one case, more than 100 m 3 of sediment was eroded. Further, for all sites monitored throughout the river corridor during this time period, the overall signal was related to erosion rather than deposition. These results highlight the potential for rapid archeological site change in Grand Canyon. Whereas the topographic change results presented herein provide the highest level of change detection yet performed on entire archeological sites in Grand Canyon, additional work in combining these results with site-specific weather, hydrology, and geomorphology data is needed to provide a more thorough understanding of the causes of the documented topographic changes. Linking lidar-derived measurements of topographic changes with these other data sources should provide land managers with a scientific basis for making management decisions regarding archeological resources in Grand Canyon National Park and assist in answering open questions regarding the influence that sediment-depleted flows from Glen Canyon Dam have on archeological site stability.

Arizona↗

Assessment of selected inorganic constituents in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area, Arizona and northern Mexico, through 1998

Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations from data collected by the National Water-Quality Assessment and other U.S. Geological Survey water-quality programs were analyzed to (1) assess water quality, (2) determine natural and human factors affecting water quality, and (3) compute stream loads for the surface-water resources in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Stream temperature, pH, dissolved-oxygen concentration and percent saturation, and dissolved-solids, suspended-sediment, and nutrient concentration data collected at 41 stream-water quality monitoring stations through water year 1998 were used in this assessment. Water-quality standards applicable to the stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentration data for the stations investigated in this study generally were met, although there were some exceedences. In a few samples from the White River, the Black River, and the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam, the pH in reaches designated as a domestic drinking water source was higher than the State of Arizona standard. More than half of the samples from the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and almost all of the samples from the stations on the Central Arizona Project Canal—two of the three most important surface-water sources used for drinking water in the Central Arizona Basins study area—exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for dissolved solids. Two reach-specific standards for nutrients established by the State of Arizona were exceeded many times: (1) the annual mean concentration of total phosphorus was exceeded during several years at stations on the main stems of the Salt and Verde Rivers, and (2) the annual mean concentration of total nitrogen was exceeded during several years at the Salt River near Roosevelt and at the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam. Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were related to streamflow, season, water management, stream permanence, and land and water use. Dissolved-oxygen percent saturation, pH, and nutrient concentrations were dependent on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Seasonality and correlation with streamflow were dependant on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Temporal trends in streamflow, stream properties, and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were common in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Temporal trends in the streamflow of unregulated perennial reaches in the Central Highlands tended to be higher from 1900 through the 1930s, lower from the 1940s through the 1970s, and high again after the 1970s. This is similar to the pattern observed for the mean annual precipitation for the Southwestern United States and indicates long-term trends in flow of streams draining the Central Highlands were driven by long-term trends in climate. Streamflow increased over the period of record at stations on effluent-dependent reaches as a result of the increase in the urban population and associated wastewater returns to the Salt and Gila Rivers in the Phoenix metropolitan area and the Santa Cruz River in the Tucson metropolitan area. Concentrations of dissolved solids decreased in the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and in the Verde River below Bartlett Dam. This decrease represents an improvement in the water quality and resulted from a concurrent increase in the amount of runoff entering the reservoirs. Stream loads of water-chemistry constituents were compared at different locations along the streams with one another, and stream loads were compared to upstream inputs of the constituent from natural and anthropogenic sources to determine the relative importance of different sources and to determine the fate of the water-chemistry constituent. Of the dissolved solids transported into the Basin and Range Lowlands each year from the Central Arizona Project Canal and from streams draining the Central Highlands, about 1.2 billion kilograms accumulated in the soil, unsaturated zone, and aquifers in agricultural and urban areas as a result of irrigating crops and urban vegetation. Stream loads of phosphorus decreased from the 91st Avenue Wastewater-Treatment Plant downstream to the Gila River at Gillespie Dam, probably as a result of adsorption of phosphorus to the streambed sediments. In this same reach, stream loads of nitrogen increased, most likely because of inputs from fertilizers. The annual mass of nitrogen and phosphorus input to developed basins from quantifiable sources was much larger than the mass input to basins that had little or no municipal or agricul-tural development. These computed inputs exclude the mass of nitrogen and phosphorus from sources such as geologic formations and soils that could not be quantified. The quantifiable annual inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus for the upper Salt River Basin and the upper Verde River Basin were similar to those for the West Clear Creek Basin. This similarity suggests that the small amount of municipal and agricultural development in the upper Salt River and the upper Verde River Basins did not greatly change the basin input flux. For basins with minimal urban and agricultural development, the largest quantifiable source of nitrogen was precipitation, and the largest source of phosphorus was human bodily waste treated by sewer and septic systems. This was in contrast to developed basins, for which fertilizer was the largest quantifiable source of both nutrients. For most basins examined, quantifiable inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus from nonpoint sources were greater than inputs from point sources. This relation emphasizes the importance of land- and water-management policies that protect surface-water resources from nonpoint sources of nutrients as well as from point sources. The amount of nitrogen and phosphorus transpor-ted out of basins was a small fraction of the total for the quantifiable inputs. This result indicated that most of the nutrients input to basins were not transported out of the basins in surface water, but rather were transported to the subsurface (the soil, unsaturated zone, or aquifer), released to the atmosphere (such as volatilized ammonia), or incorporated into the biomass.

Central Arizona Basins study area↗

Selected achievements, science directions, and new opportunities for the WEBB small watershed research program

Over nearly two decades, the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) small watershed research program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented how water and solute fluxes, nutrient, carbon, and mercury dynamics, and weathering and sediment transport respond to natural and humancaused drivers, including climate, climate change, and atmospheric deposition. Together with a continued and increasing focus on the effects of climate change, more investigations are needed that examine ecological effects (e.g., evapotranspiration, nutrient uptake) and responses (e.g., species abundances, biodiversity) that are coupled with the physical and chemical processes historically observed in the WEBB program. Greater use of remote sensing, geographic modeling, and habitat/watershed modeling tools is needed, as is closer integration with the USGS-led National Phenology Network. Better understanding of process and system response times is needed. The analysis and observation of land-use and climate change effects over time should be improved by pooling data obtained by the WEBB program during the last two decades with data obtained earlier and (or) concurrently from other research and monitoring studies conducted at or near the five WEBB watershed sites. These data can be supplemented with historical and paleo-environmental information, such as could be obtained from tree rings and lake cores. Because of the relatively pristine nature and small size of its watersheds, the WEBB program could provide process understanding and basic data to better characterize and quantify ecosystem services and to develop and apply indicators of ecosystem health. In collaboration with other Federal and State watershed research programs, the WEBB program has an opportunity to contribute to tracking the short-term dynamics and long-term evolution of ecosystem services and health indicators at a multiplicity of scales across the landscape.

Conference Paper↗

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

Information and Technology Report↗

Case study of a full-scale evapotranspiration cover

The design, construction, and performance analyses of a 6.1ha evapotranspiration (ET) landfill cover at the semiarid U.S. Army Fort Carson site, near Colorado Springs, Colo. are presented. Initial water-balance model simulations, using literature reported soil hydraulic data, aided selection of borrow-source soil type(s) that resulted in predictions of negligible annual drainage (⩽1mm∕year). Final construction design was based on refined water-balance simulations using laboratory determined soil hydraulic values from borrow area natural soil horizons that were described with USDA soil classification methods. Cover design components included a 122cm thick clay loam (USDA), compaction ⩽80% of the standard Proctor maximum dry density (dry bulk density ∼1.3Mg/m3), erosion control measures, top soil amended with biosolids, and seeding with native grasses. Favorable hydrologic performance for a 5year period was documented by lysimeter-measured and Richards’-based calculations of annual drainage that were all <0.4mm∕year. Water potential data suggest that ET removed water that infiltrated the cover and contributed to a persistent driving force for upward flow and removal of water from below the base of the cover.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin↗

Delaware River Basin

During the past 25 years, industry and government have made large financial investments in manufacturing, processing, and wastewater-treatment facilities to reduce the amount of contaminants being discharged. Although these investments have led to improved water quality across the Nation, concerns about the effects of nutrients, toxins, and pathogens on human health and that of ecological communities remain. To address the need for consistent and scientifically sound information for managing the Nation's water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey began the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program in 1991. This program is unique in that it integrates surface- and ground-water-quality monitoring with the study of aquatic ecosystems. The goals of the NAWQA program are to (1) describe current water-quality conditions for a large part of the Nation's freshwater streams and aquifers (water-bearing sediments and rocks), (2) describe how water quality is changing over time, and (3) increase our understanding of the natural and human factors that affect water quality (Leahy and others, 1990, Gilliom and others, 1995). Assessing the quality of water in every location of the Nation would not be practical. Therefore, NAWQA investigations are conducted within 59 selected areas called study units (fig. 1). These study units encompass important river and aquifer systems in the United States and represent the diverse geographic, waterresource, land-use, and water-use characteristics of the Nation. The Delaware River Basin is one of 15 study units in which work began in 1996. Water-quality sampling in the study unit will begin in 1999. This fact sheet provides a brief overview of the NAWQA program, describes the Delaware River Basin study unit, identifies the major water-quality issues in the basin, and documents the plan of study that will be followed during the study-unit investigation.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗

Results of mineral, chemical, and sulfate isotopic analyses of water, soil, rocks, and soil extracts from the Pariette Draw Watershed, Uinta Basin, Utah

In 2010, Utah Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) Division of Water Quality (UDWQ, 2010) determined that water quality in Pariette Draw was in violation of Federal and State water quality criteria for total dissolved solids (TDS), selenium (Se), and boron (B). The measure of total dissolved solids is the sum of all the major ion concentrations in solution and in this case, the dominant ions are sodium (Na) and sulfate (SO4), which can form salts like thenardite (Na2SO4) and mirabilite (Na2SO4&sdot;H2O). The Utah Department of Environmental Quality (2010) classified the contamination as natural background and from nonpoint sources related to regional lithology and irrigation practices. Although the daily loads of the constituents of concern and water chemistry have been characterized for parts of the watershed, little is known about the controls that bedrock and soil mineralogy have on salt, Se, and B storage and the water-rock interactions that influence the mobility of these components in ground and surface waters. Studies in the Uncompahgre River watershed in Colorado by Tuttle and others (2014a, 2014b) show that salt derived from weathering of shale in a semiarid climate is stored in a variety of minerals that contribute solutes to runoff and surface waters based on a complex set of conditions such as water availability, geomorphic position (for example, topography controls the depth of salt accumulation in soils), water-table fluctuations, redox conditions, mineral dissolution kinetics, ion-exchange reactions, and secondary mineral formation. Elements like Se and B commonly reside in soluble salt phases, so knowledge of the behavior of salt minerals also sheds light on the behavior of associated contaminants. The goal of this study was to establish a process-based understanding of salt, Se, and B behavior to address whether these contaminants can be better managed, or if uncontrollable natural processes will overwhelm any attempts to bring Pariette Draw into compliance with respect to recently established total maximum daily limits (TMDLs). We collected data to refine our knowledge about the role of rock weathering and soil formation in the transport and storage of salt in the watershed and to show how salt is cycled under irrigated and natural conditions. Our approach was to sample rock, soils, and sediment on irrigated and natural terrain for mineralogical analysis to determine the residence of salt and associated Se and B, classify minerals as primary (related to rock formation) or secondary weathering products, and characterize mineral dissolution kinetics. Mineral and chemical analyses and selective extractions of rocks and soils provide useful information in understanding solute movement and mineral dissolution/ formation. The resulting data are critical in determining residence of salt, Se, and B in weathered rock and soil and understanding the mobility during water-rock-soil interactions. This report summarizes our methods for sample and data collection and tabulates the mineral, chemical, and isotopic data collected.

Utah↗

Synoptic Discharge, Water-Property, and pH Measurements for Muddy River Springs Area and Muddy River, Nevada, February 7, 2001

On February 7, 2001, synoptic discharge measurements at selected sites along the Muddy River in Nevada, indicated three trends in discharge resulting from contributions of spring discharge, influences of diversionary flow, and contributions from shallow ground water. Effects from diversionary and tributary flow were local in nature and resulted in a net gain of 2.6 cubic feet per second throughout the measured reach. The minor increase in discharge may be the result of contributions from ground-water flow and measurement error. Comparison of 1963 and 2001 discharge measurements within the Muddy River Springs area indicated that discharge rates and trends from these source waters were similar. Along the mainstem of the Muddy River, water-temperature measurements indicated a net decrease of 8.8 degrees Celsius. Water samples collected and analyzed for specific conductance indicated a net increase of 390 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, whereas pH measurements remained relatively constant.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Techniques for estimating peak-flow magnitude and frequency relations for South Dakota streams

A generalized skew coefficient analysis was completed for South Dakota to test the validity of using the generalized skew coefficient map in Bulletin 17B of the 1982 United States Water Resources Council, ?Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency.? Results of the analysis indicate that the Bulletin 17B generalized skew coefficient map generally provides adequate generalized skew coefficients for estimating peakflow magnitudes and frequencies for South Dakota gaging stations. Peak-flow records through 1994 for 197 continuous- and partial-record streamflow-gaging stations that had 10 or more years of unregulated systematic record were used in a generalized leastsquares regression analysis that relates peak flows for selected recurrence intervals to selected basin characteristics. Peak-flow equations were developed for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years for seven hydrologic subregions in South Dakota. The peak-flow equations are applicable to natural-flow streams that have drainage areas less than or equal to 1,000 square miles. The standard error of estimate for the seven hydrologic subregions ranges from 22 to 110 percent for the 100-year peak-flow equations. Weighted peak flows for various frequencies based on gaging-station data and the regional regression equations are provided for each gaging station. Examples are given for (1) determining peak-flow magnitudes and frequencies for ungaged sites on ungaged streams; (2) determining weighted peak-flow magnitudes and frequencies for gaging stations; and (3) using the drainage-area ratio method for determining peakflow magnitudes and frequencies for ungaged sites near a gaging station on the same stream and ungaged sites between two gaging stations on the same stream.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Use of water by riparian vegetation, Cottonwood Wash, Arizona

The change in water use as a result of the modification of riparian vegetation was measured in Cottonwood Wash, Mohave County, Ariz. A 4.1-mile length of the stream channel was selected and divided into a 2.6-mile upper reach and a 1.5-mile lower reach. Measurements of streamflow, ground-water levels, vegetation, and meteorological phenomena in the area defined the use of water by riparian vegetation under natural hydrologic conditions. Subsequent defoliation and eradication of the vegetation in the lower reach permitted the determination of the change in water use as a result of the modification. The computed average loss of water from the lower reach before modification was 80 acre-feet per growing season, a quantity which represented about 18 percent of the average flow entering the reach in the same period. The average loss after modification of the vegetation was 42 acre-feet per growing season, a quantity which represented about 12 percent of the average flow entering the reach in the same period.

Arizona↗

Test functions for three-dimensional control-volume mixed finite-element methods on irregular grids

Numerical methods based on unstructured grids, with irregular cells, usually require discrete shape functions to approximate the distribution of quantities across cells. For control-volume mixed finite-element methods, vector shape functions are used to approximate the distribution of velocities across cells and vector test functions are used to minimize the error associated with the numerical approximation scheme. For a logically cubic mesh, the lowest-order shape functions are chosen in a natural way to conserve intercell fluxes that vary linearly in logical space. Vector test functions, while somewhat restricted by the mapping into the logical reference cube, admit a wider class of possibilities. Ideally, an error minimization procedure to select the test function from an acceptable class of candidates would be the best procedure. Lacking such a procedure, we first investigate the effect of possible test functions on the pressure distribution over the control volume; specifically, we look for test functions that allow for the elimination of intermediate pressures on cell faces. From these results, we select three forms for the test function for use in a control-volume mixed method code and subject them to an error analysis for different forms of grid irregularity; errors are reported in terms of the discrete L2 norm of the velocity error. Of these three forms, one appears to produce optimal results for most forms of grid irregularity.

Conference Paper↗

AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification

This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems; - identify possible causes for the changing conditions; - detect emerging problems, their possible causes, and the potential risk to Arctic ecosystems including indigenous peoples and other Arctic residents; and to - recommend actions required to reduce risks to Arctic ecosystems. This report provides the accessible scientific basis and validation for the statements and recommendations made in the Arctic Ocean Acidification Assessment Summary for Policy-makers that was delivered to Arctic Council Ministers at their meeting in Kiruna, Sweden in May 2011 and the related AMAP State of the Arctic Environment report Arctic Ocean Acidification 2013: An Overview . It includes extensive background data and references to the scientific literature, and details the sources for figures reproduced in the overview report. Whereas the Summary for Policy-makers report contains recommendations that focus mainly on policy-relevant actions concerned with addressing the consequences of AOA, the conclusions and recommendations presented in this report also cover issues of a more scientific nature, such as proposals for filling gaps in knowledge, and recommendations relevant to future monitoring and research work. The AOA assessment was conducted between 2010 and 2013 by an international group of over 60 experts. Lead authors were selected based on an open nomination process coordinated by AMAP. A similar process was used to select international experts who independently reviewed this report. Information contained in this report is fully references and based on first and foremost peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken since 2006. It also incorporates some new (unpublished) information from monitoring and research conducted according to well-established and documented national and international standards of quality assurance/quality control protocols. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials. Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications. The AOA assessment summary reports and films have therefore been developed specifically for policy-makers, summarizing the main findings of the AOA assessment. The AOA lead authors have confirmed that both this report and its derivative products accurately and fully reflect their scientific assessment. The AOA reports and the films are freely available from the AMAP Secretariat and on the AMAP website: www.amap.no, and their use for educational purposes is encouraged. AMAP would like to express its appreciation to all experts who have contributed their time, efforts and data, in particular the lead authors who coordinated the production of this report. Thanks are also due to the reviewers who contributed to the AOA peer-review process and provided valuable comments that helped to ensure the quality of the report. A list of the main contributors is included at the start of each chapter. The list is not comprehensive. Specifically, it does not include the many national institutes, laboratories and organizations, and their staff, which have been involved in various countries in AOA-related monitoring and research. Apologies, and no lesser thanks are given to any individuals unintentionally omitted from the list. The support from the Arctic countries and non-Arctic countries implementing research and monitoring in the Arctic is vital to the success of AMAP. The AMAP work is essentially based on ongoing activities within these countries, and the countries that provide the necessary support for most the experts involved in the preparation of the AMAP assessments. In particular, AMAP would like to acknowledge Norway for taking the lead-country role in this assessment and thank Canada, Norway, Sweden, USA and the Nordic Council of Ministers for their financial support to the AOA work. The AMAP Working Group is pleased to present its assessment to the Arctic Council and the international science community. Richard Bellerby (AOA assessment Chair) Russel Shearer (AMAP Chair) Lars-Otto Reiersen (AMAP Executive Secretary) Oslo, May 2013

Report↗

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth&rsquo;s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research↗

Interactions among temporary and permanent meiofauna: Observations on the feeding and behavior of selected taxa

Meiofauna diets and behavioral patterns are relatively unknown despite the fact that in any system, predatory relationships and behavioral responses may play an important role in determining community structure. Therefore, observations on food preferences, feeding behavior, and encounter interactions of members of a meiofauna assemblage were made in the laboratory in dishes of natural sediment. The diets and behavior of two turbellarian species, Neochildia fusca and Archiloa wilsoni were examined in detail. Both are predators and both feed on a variety of other taxa, including the temporary meiofauna. Based upon the results of these experiments, a potential food web was constructed among the temporary and permanent meiofauna. The behavioral responses of these turbellarians and other members of the meiofaunal assemblage at times of encounter were also observed, categorized, and quantified. Implications of these behaviors are discussed.

Biological Bulletin↗

Open marsh water management in the mid-Atlantic region: Aerial surveys of waterbird use

Nine marsh sites were selected in Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey to assess the importance of ponds created by Open Marsh Water Management (OMWM) to migratory birds. At eight of the nine sites, OMWM ponds were paired with areas of similar-sized natural ponds. Eleven aerial surveys were conducted, mostly in fall and winter of 1987 and 1988 to compare relative use of ponds and sites by black ducks (Anas rubripes), other waterfowl, shorebirds, wading birds, gulls, and other species of birds. We noted a high degree of variation in bird use. Seasonal effects were significant, but treatment (OMWM vs. natural ponds) effect was not. Water/marsh (W/M) area ratio was positively correlated with waterfowl and black ducks, but pond number was not. Larger ponds (>0.25 ha) tended to be used more than smaller ponds by most bird species.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia↗

Geophysical evidence for the intersection of the St Paul, Cape Palmas and Grand Cess fracture zones with the continental margin of Liberia, West Africa

PUBLISHED reconstructions of Gondwana continent 1 (Fig. l a ) show a gap in fit near the junction of the Americas and Africa. To study this critical area, the Unitedgeo I made geophysical measurements and collected rock samples across the continental margin of Liberia (USGS-IDOE cruise leg 5) in November 1971. Figure I b indicates the location of the 5,400 km of ship track on a generalised bathymetric map 2 . We shall discuss the data in detail elsewhere. Here we present the evidence for the existence of three fracture zones, two of which have not been reported previously, intersecting the continental margin at the north end of the South Atlantic, which remained closed probably until Cretaceous time. We suggest that Precambrian structures on the African continent controlled the location of these fracture zones. Figure Ic compares gravity and magnetic profiles and interpretations of the seismic profiles for three selected lines (27, 30 and 34) crossing the Grand Cess, Cape Palmas and St Paul fracture zones, respectively.

Nature↗

Statistical consideration of nonrandom treatment applications reveal region-wide benefits of widespread post-fire restoration action

Accurate predictions of ecological restoration outcomes are needed across the increasingly large landscapes requiring treatment following disturbances. However, observational studies often fail to account for nonrandom treatment application, which can result in invalid inference. Examining a spatiotemporally extensive management treatment-- post-fire seeding of declining sagebrush shrubs across the semiarid U.S. over two decades -- we quantify drivers and consequences of selection biases in restoration, using remotely sensed data. Treatments were disproportionately applied in more stressful, degraded ecological conditions. Failure to incorporate nonrandom treatment allocation led to the conclusion that costly, widespread seedings were unsuccessful; however, after considering biases, restoration positively affected sagebrush recovery. Treatment effect sizes varied with climate, indicating possible prioritization criteria for interventions. Our findings revise the perspective that widespread post-fire sagebrush seedings have been broadly “unsuccessful” and demonstrate how selection biases can pose substantive inferential hazards in observational studies of restoration efficacy and development of restoration theory.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah,↗

The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions. The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When combined, the ecosystem services modeling capabilities of InVEST and the process-based abilities of the APEX model should provide complementary information needed to meet USDA and the Department of the Interior information needs.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗