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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources
USGS1990

Hydrology and land use in Grand Traverse County, Michigan

Glacial deposits are the sole source of ground-water supplies in Grand Traverse County. These deposits range in thickness from 100 to 900 feet and consist of till, outwash, and materials of lacustrine and eolian origin. In some areas, the deposits fill buried valleys that are 500 feet deep. Sedimentary rocks of Paleozoic age, which underlie the glacial deposits, are mostly shale and are not used for water supply. Of the glacial deposits, outwash and lacustrine sand are the most productive aquifers. Most domestic wells obtain water from sand and gravel at depths ranging from 50 to 150 feet and yield at least 20 gallons per minute. Irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells capable of yielding 250 gallons per minute or more are generally greater than 150 feet deep. At places in the county where moranial deposits contain large amounts of interbedded silt and clay, wells are generally deeper and yields are much lower. Areal variations in the chemical and physical characteristics of ground and surface water are related to land use and chemical inputs to the hydrologic system. Information on fertilizer application, septic-tank discharges, animal wastes, and precipitation indicate that 40 percent of nitrogen input is from precipitation, 6 percent from septic tanks, 14 percent from animal wastes, and 40 percent from fertilizers. Streams and lakes generally have a calcium bicarbonate-type water. The dissolved-solids concentration of streams ranged from 116 to 380 milligrams per liter, and that of lakes, from 47 to 170 milligrams per liter. Water of streams is hard to very hard; water of lakes ranges from soft to hard. The maximum total nitrogen concentration found in streams was 4.4 milligrams per liter. Water of lakes have low nitrogen concentrations; the median nitrate concentration is less than 0.01 milligrams per liter. Pesticides (Parathion and Simazine) were detected in low concentrations at six stream sites; 2,4-D was detected in low concentrations in water of two lakes. Relationships between land use and the yield of dissolved and suspended substances could not be established for most stream basins. Calcium and bicarbonate are the principal dissolved substances in ground water. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 70 to 700 milligrams per liter; the countywide mean concentration is 230 milligrams per liter. The mean nitrate concentration is 1.3 milligrams per liter; about 1.6 percent of the county's ground water has nitrate concentrations that exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum drinking water level of 10 milligrams per liter. An effect of fertilizer applications on ground-water quality is evident in some parts of the county.

Michigan↗
USGS2025

Cancer risk and estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater in the US

Importance Lithium is a naturally occurring element in drinking water and is commonly used as a mood-stabilizing medication. Although clinical studies have reported associations between receiving lithium treatment and reduced cancer risk among patients with bipolar disorder, to our knowledge, the association between environmental lithium exposure and cancer risk has never been studied in the general population. Objectives To evaluate the association between exposure to lithium in drinking groundwater and cancer risk in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study included participants with electronic health record and residential address information but without cancer history at baseline from the All of Us Research Program between May 31, 2017, and June 30, 2022. Participants were followed up until February 15, 2023. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2023 through October 2024. Exposure Lithium concentration in groundwater, based on kriging interpolation of publicly available US Geological Survey data on lithium concentration for 4700 wells across the contiguous US between May 12, 1999, and November 6, 2018. Main Outcome and Measures The main outcome was cancer diagnosis or condition, obtained from electronic health records. Stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for risk of cancer overall and individual cancer types for increasing quintiles of the estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater, adjusting for socioeconomic, behavioral, and neighborhood-level variables. The analysis was further conducted in the western and eastern halves of the US and restricted to long-term residents living at their current address for at least 3 years. Results A total of 252 178 participants were included (median age, 52 years [IQR, 36-64 years]; 60.1% female). The median follow-up time was 3.6 years (IQR, 3.0-4.3 years), and 7573 incident cancer cases were identified. Higher estimated lithium exposure was consistently associated with reduced cancer risk. Compared with the first (lowest) quintile of lithium exposure, the HR for all cancers was 0.49 (95% CI, 0.31-0.78) for the fourth quintile and 0.29 (95% CI, 0.15-0.55) for the fifth quintile. These associations were found for all cancer types investigated in both females and males, among long-term residents, and in both western and eastern states. For example, for the fifth vs first quintile of lithium exposure for all cancers, the HR was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.07-0.42) in females and 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.38) in males; for long-term residents, the HR was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.15-0.66) in females and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11-0.52) in males; and the HR was 0.01 (95% CI, 0.00-0.09) in western states and 0.34 (95% CI, 0.21-0.57) in eastern states. Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of 252 178 participants, estimated lithium exposure in drinking groundwater was associated with reduced cancer risk. Given the sparse evidence and unknown mechanisms of this association, follow-up investigation is warranted.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2024

Assessing the attractiveness of native wildflower species to bees (Hymenoptera: Anthophila) in the southeastern United States

Habitat loss, agricultural intensification, pesticide use, disease and climate change have contributed to the decline of numerous insect groups. Recent government initiatives have recognized the importance of supplementary wildflower plantings to support native bee populations, yet little information exists on the attractiveness of recommended plant species to bees. With the use of network analysis and generalized linear mixed models, we evaluated the attractiveness of 18 wildflower species belonging to 6 families (Apiaceae, Apocynaceae, Asteraceae, Fabaceae, Lamiaceae and Verbenaceae) planted in a randomized block design by conducting timed targeted sweep netting surveys. We also evaluated the floral preferences of four bee species ( Apis mellifera , Halictus poeyi/ligatus , Bombus griseocollis and Bombus impatiens ) to the planted wildflower species with the use of GLMs. We found that Asclepias tuberosa, Gaillardia pulchella and Verbena hastata attracted the greatest abundance, richness and diversity of native bees compared to the other wildflower species. Collectively, Asclepias tuberosa, Gaillardia pulchella and Verbena hastata attracted 89% of all bee taxa in the study, which exemplifies the importance of including them in a wildflower mixture to attract native bees. While several wildflower species attracted low abundance, richness and diversity of native bees such as Monarda fistulosa, Symphyotrichum pilosum and Eryngium yuccifolium , they are still ecologically important for attracting uncommon or specialist bee species and should be included in seed mixes for this reason. Solution . Our results highlight that each species of native wildflower varies in the abundance, richness and diversity of native bees they attract; this could be considered in the decision-making of landowners and land managers to promote wildflower plantings to reflect the needs of certain groups of bees of conservation interest.

Alabama↗
USGS2018

Grizzly bear depredation on grazing allotments in the Yellowstone ecosystem

Grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) conflicts with humans, including livestock depredation on public land grazing allotments, have increased during the last several decades within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) in the western United States as the grizzly bear population has grown in number and occupied range. Minimizing conflicts and improving conservation efficacy requires information on the relationships between livestock depredations, allotment management, grizzly bear habitat conditions, and their interactions. We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate spatio-temporal relationships between grizzly bear depredation of livestock and the characteristics of 316 United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service and National Park Service grazing allotments in the GYE during 1992–2014. We evaluated relationships at 2 spatial extents, representing daily and annual grizzly bear activity areas. During the study period, more grazing allotments became occupied by grizzly bears and most livestock depredations were associated with these areas of population expansion. Number of livestock (beta = 1.15 +/- 0.19 [SE]) and grizzly bear density index (beta = 1.13 +/- 0.10) had the greatest effects on the number of livestock depredation events relative to other allotment attributes. Estimated number of depredation events increased by approximately 20% when cow-calf pairs increased by 100 pairs and grizzly bear density index increased by 1 bear/196 km2 (the average annual home-range size of a female grizzly bear in the GYE). Additionally, grazing allotment size was positively related to the number of depredation events (beta = 0.56 +/- 0.16), whereas the presence of bull cattle or horses was associated with an approximately 50% reduction in depredations (beta = -0.71 +/- 0.37). Livestock depredation events were greater for allotments with lower road density (beta = -0.89 +/- 0.28), less rugged terrain (beta = -0.57 +/- 0.25), higher vegetative primary productivity (beta = 0.33 +/- 0.16), and more whitebark pine coverage (beta = 0.30 +/- 0.15). Relationships between depredations and grizzly bear habitat conditions varied across spatial extents. As the grizzly bear population continues to expand, natural resource managers and livestock producers could focus efforts on allotments with a higher density of grizzly bears, fewer roads, and quality grizzly bear habitat, including higher vegetative productivity, when developing cooperative management plans and preventative measures to reduce the likelihood of depredation. The perspectives gained from our analysis provide context for long-term, landscape-level planning to accommodate livestock production on public lands while meeting conservation goals for grizzly bears.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Baseline ecological risk assessment of the Calcasieu Estuary, Louisiana: 3. An evaluation of the risks to benthic invertebrates associated with exposure to contaminated sediments

The sediments in the Calcasieu Estuary are contaminated with a wide variety of chemicals of potential concern (COPCs), including heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, phthalates, chlorinated benzenes, and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans. The sources of these COPCs include both point and non-point source discharges. As part of a baseline ecological risk assessment, the risks to benthic invertebrates posed by exposure to sediment-associated COPCs were assessed using five lines of evidence, including whole-sediment chemistry, pore-water chemistry, whole-sediment toxicity, pore-water toxicity, and benthic invertebrate community structure. The results of this assessment indicated that exposure to whole sediments and/or pore water from the Calcasieu Estuary generally posed low risks to benthic invertebrate communities (i.e., risks were classified as low for 68% of the sampling locations investigated). However, incremental risks to benthic invertebrates (i.e., compared with those associated with exposure to conditions in reference areas) were indicated for 32% of the sampling locations within the estuary. Of the three areas of concern (AOCs) investigated, the risks to benthic invertebrates were highest in the Bayou d'Inde AOC; risks were generally lower in the Upper Calcasieu River AOC and Middle Calcasieu River AOC. The areas showing the highest risks to sediment-dwelling organisms were generally located in the vicinity of point source discharges of COPCs. These results provided risk managers with the information required to make decisions regarding the need for remedial actions at the site.

Louisiana↗
USGS2017

Comparing stream-specific to generalized temperature models to guide salmonid management in a changing climate

Global climate change is predicted to increase air and stream temperatures and alter thermal habitat suitability for growth and survival of coldwater fishes, including brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis), brown trout (Salmo trutta), and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). In a changing climate, accurate stream temperature modeling is increasingly important for sustainable salmonid management throughout the world. However, finite resource availability (e.g. funding, personnel) drives a tradeoff between thermal model accuracy and efficiency (i.e. cost-effective applicability at management-relevant spatial extents). Using different projected climate change scenarios, we compared the accuracy and efficiency of stream-specific and generalized (i.e. region-specific) temperature models for coldwater salmonids within and outside the State of Michigan, USA, a region with long-term stream temperature data and productive coldwater fisheries. Projected stream temperature warming between 2016 and 2056 ranged from 0.1 to 3.8 °C in groundwater-dominated streams and 0.2–6.8 °C in surface-runoff dominated systems in the State of Michigan. Despite their generally lower accuracy in predicting exact stream temperatures, generalized models accurately projected salmonid thermal habitat suitability in 82% of groundwater-dominated streams, including those with brook charr (80% accuracy), brown trout (89% accuracy), and rainbow trout (75% accuracy). In contrast, generalized models predicted thermal habitat suitability in runoff-dominated streams with much lower accuracy (54%). These results suggest that, amidst climate change and constraints in resource availability, generalized models are appropriate to forecast thermal conditions in groundwater-dominated streams within and outside Michigan and inform regional-level salmonid management strategies that are practical for coldwater fisheries managers, policy makers, and the public. We recommend fisheries professionals reserve resource-intensive stream-specific models for runoff-dominated systems containing high-priority fisheries resources (e.g. trophy individuals, endangered species) that will be directly impacted by projected stream warming.

Michigan↗
USGS2016

Modeling abundance using multinomial N-mixture models

Multinomial N-mixture models are a generalization of the binomial N-mixture models described in Chapter 6 to allow for more complex and informative sampling protocols beyond simple counts. Many commonly used protocols such as multiple observer sampling, removal sampling, and capture-recapture produce a multivariate count frequency that has a multinomial distribution and for which multinomial N-mixture models can be developed. Such protocols typically result in more precise estimates than binomial mixture models because they provide direct information about parameters of the observation process. We demonstrate the analysis of these models in BUGS using several distinct formulations that afford great flexibility in the types of models that can be developed, and we demonstrate likelihood analysis using the unmarked package. Spatially stratified capture-recapture models are one class of models that fall into the multinomial N-mixture framework, and we discuss analysis of stratified versions of classical models such as model Mb, Mh and other classes of models that are only possible to describe within the multinomial N-mixture framework.

Book chapter↗
USGS2007

Growth rates of young-of-year shovelnose sturgeon in the Upper Missouri River

Information on growth during the larval and young-of-year life stages in natural river environments is generally lacking for most sturgeon species. In this study, methods for estimating ages and quantifying growth were developed for field-sampled larval and young-of-year shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus in the upper Missouri River. First, growth was assessed by partitioning samples of young-of-year shovelnose sturgeon into cohorts, and regressing weekly increases in cohort mean length on sampling date. This method quantified relative growth because ages of the cohorts were unknown. Cohort increases in mean length among sampling dates were positively related (P < 0.05, r 2 > 0.59 for all cohorts) to sampling date, and yielded growth rate estimates of 0.80–2.95 mm day −1 (2003) and 0.44–2.28 mm day −1 (2004). Highest growth rates occurred in the largest (and earliest spawned) cohorts. Second, a method was developed to estimate cohort hatch dates, thus age on date of sampling could be determined. This method included quantification of post-hatch length increases as a function of water temperature (growth capacity; mm per thermal unit, mm TU −1 ), and summation of mean daily water temperatures to achieve the required number of thermal units that corresponded to post-hatch lengths of shovelnose sturgeon on sampling dates. For six of seven cohorts of shovelnose sturgeon analyzed, linear growth models ( r 2 ≥ 0.65, P < 0.0001) or Gompertz growth models ( r 2 ≥ 0.83, P < 0.0001) quantified length-at-age from hatch through 55 days post-hatch (98–100 mm). Comparisons of length-at-age derived from the growth models indicated that length-at-age was greater for the earlier-hatched cohorts than later-hatched cohorts. Estimated hatch dates for different cohorts were corroborated based on the dates that newly-hatched larval shovelnose sturgeon were sampled in the drift. These results provide the first quantification of growth dynamics for field-sampled age-0 shovelnose sturgeon in a natural river environment, and provide an accurate method for estimating age of wild-caught individuals. Methods of age determination used in this study have applications to sturgeons in other regions, but require additional testing and validation.

North Dakota↗
USGS2005

Appalachian coal assessment: Defining the coal systems of the Appalachian basin

The coal systems concept may be used to organize the geologic data for a relatively large, complex area, such as the Appalachian basin, in order to facilitate coal assessments in the area. The concept is especially valuable in subjective assessments of future coal production, which would require a detailed understanding of the coal geology and coal chemistry of the region. In addition, subjective assessments of future coal production would be enhanced by a geographical information system that contains the geologic and geochemical data commonly prepared for conventional coal assessments. Coal systems are generally defined as one or more coal beds or groups of coal beds that have had the same or similar genetic history from their inception as peat deposits, through their burial, diagenesis, and epigenesis to their ultimate preservation as lignite, bituminous coal, or anthracite. The central and northern parts of the Appalachian basin contain seven coal systems (Coal Systems A-G). These systems may be defined generally on the following criteria: (1) on the primary characteristics of their paleopeat deposits, (2) on the stratigraphic framework of the Paleozoic coal measures, (3) on the relative abundance of coal beds within the major stratigraphic groupings, (4) on the amount of sulfur related to the geologic and climatic conditions under which paleopeat deposits accumulated, and (5) on the rank of the coal (lignite to anthracite). ??2005 Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗
USGS2012

Sources and sinks of nitrogen and phosphorus to a deep, oligotrophic lake, Lake Crescent, Olympic National Park, Washington

Lake Crescent, in Olympic National Park in the northwest corner of Washington State is a deep-water lake renowned for its pristine water quality and oligotrophic nature. To examine the major sources and sinks of nutrients (as total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved nitrate), a study was conducted in the Lake Crescent watershed. The study involved measuring five major inflow streams, the Lyre River as the major outflow, recording weather and climatic data, coring lake bed sediment, and analyzing nutrient chemistry in several relevant media over 14 months. Water samples for total nitrogen, total phosphorous, and dissolved nitrate from the five inflow streams, the outlet Lyre River, and two stations in the lake were collected monthly from May 2006 through May 2007. Periodic samples of shallow water from temporary sampling wells were collected at numerous locations around the lake. Concentrations of nutrients detected in Lake Crescent and tributaries were then applied to the water budget estimates to arrive at monthly and annual loads from various environmental components within the watershed. Other sources, such as leaf litter, pollen, or automobile exhaust were estimated from annual values obtained from various literature sources. This information then was used to construct a nutrient budget for total nitrogen and total phosphorus. The nitrogen budget generally highlights vehicle traffic-diesel trucks in particular-along U.S. Highway 101 as a potential major anthropogenic source of nitrogen compounds in the lake. In contrast, contribution of nitrogen compounds from onsite septic systems appears to be relatively minor related to the other sources identified.

Washington↗
USGS2020

One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model: A MODFLOW based conjunctive-use simulation software

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005) is a computer program that simulates groundwater flow by using finite differences. The MODFLOW-2005 framework uses a modular design that allows for the easy development and incorporation of new features called processes and packages that work with or modify inputs to the groundwater-flow equation. A process solves a flow equation or set of equations. For example, the central part of MODFLOW is the groundwater-flow process that solves the groundwater-flow equation; the surface-water routing process is an additional process that solves the surface-water flow equation. Packages are code related to the groundwater-flow process. For example, the subsidence package modifies the groundwater-flow process by including aquifer compaction effects on flow. With the development of new packages and processes, the MODFLOW-2005 base framework diverged into multiple independent versions designed for specific simulation needs. This divergence limited each independent MODFLOW release to its specific purpose, so that there was no longer a single, comprehensive, general-purpose hydraulic-simulation framework. The MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM, also informally known as OneWater) is an integrated hydrologic flow model that combines multiple MODFLOW-2005 variants in one cohesive simulation software; changes were made to enable multiple capabilities in one code. This fusion of the MODFLOW-2005 versions resulted in a simulation software that can be used to address and analyze a wide class of conjunctive-use, water-management, water-food-security, and climate-crop-water scenarios. As a second core version of MODFLOW-2005, MF-OWHM maintains backward compatibility with existing MODFLOW-2005 versions, with features that include the following: Process-based simulation. Saturated groundwater flow (three-dimensional). Surface-water flow (one- and two-dimensional). Stream and river flow. Lake and reservoir storage. Landscape simulation and irrigated agriculture. Land-use and crop simulation. Root uptake of groundwater. Actual evapotranspiration. Estimated irrigation demand. Reservoir operations. Aquifer compaction and subsidence by vertical model-grid deformation. Seawater intrusion by a sharp-interface assumption. Karst-aquifer and fractured-bedrock flow. Turbulent and laminar-pipe network flow. Unsaturated groundwater flow (one-dimensional). Internal linkages among the processes that couple hydraulic head, flow, and deformation. Redesigned code for faster simulation, increased user-input options, easier model updates, and more robust error reporting than in previous models. MF-OWHM is a MODFLOW-2005 based integrated hydrologic model that can simulate and analyze varying environmental conditions to allow for the evaluation of management options from many components of human and natural water movement through a physically based, supply and demand framework. The term “integrated,” in the context of this report, refers to the tight coupling of groundwater flow, surface-water flow, landscape processes, aquifer compaction and subsidence, reservoir operations, and conduit (karst) flow. Another benefit of this integrated hydrologic model is that models developed to run by MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT, MODFLOW-CFP, or MODFLOW-FMP can also be simulated with MF-OWHM. At the time of this report’s publication, MF-OWHM version 2 (MF-OWHM2) does not include a direct internal simulation of snowmelt, advanced mountainous watershed rainfall-runoff simulation, detailed shallow soil-moisture accounting, or atmospheric moisture content. Atmospheric moisture may be accounted for indirectly by, optionally, specifying a pan-evaporation rate, reference evapotranspiration, and precipitation. These features are not included to ensure that simulation runtime remains short enough to enable the use of automated methods of calibrating model parameters to field observations, which typically require many simulation model runs. The MF-OWHM approach is to include as much detail as possible to simulate hydrological processes, providing the simulation runtimes remain reasonable enough to allow for robust parameter estimation and model calibration. To represent both natural and human-influenced flow, MF-OWHM integrates physically based flow processes derived from MODFLOW-2005 in a supply and demand framework. From this integration, the physically based movement of groundwater, surface water, imported water, and precipitation serve as supply to meet consumptive demands associated with irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, natural vegetation, and urban water uses. Water consumption is determined by balancing the available water supply with water demand, leading to the concept of a demand-driven, supply-constrained simulation. The MF-OWHM Supply-and-Demand Framework is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use, where there are often few data available to describe changes in land-use through time, such as crop type and distribution, and the associated changes in groundwater pumpage. This framework attempts to satisfy each land-use water demand with available water supplies—that is, groundwater uptake, precipitation, and irrigation. An option provided in MF-OWHM2 is to automatically increase groundwater pumping for irrigation, which often is unknown, by the calculated residual between demand and the other available sources of supply. From large- to small-scale applications, the physically based supply and demand framework provides key capabilities for simulating and analyzing historical, current, and future conjunctive-use of surface water and groundwater. To achieve the physically based supply and demand framework, the MODFLOW-2005 standard of no inter-package and -process communication was relaxed for MF-OWHM2. Traditional MODFLOW simulation models required that all packages and processes interact through the groundwater-flow equation or by removing the water flow from the simulation domain. For example, the MODFLOW-2005 representation of a groundwater well extracts water from the groundwater-flow equation (by subtraction) and removes it from the simulation domain. This feature is available in the MF-OWHM framework, but options have been added to allow the specification of a use or destination of pumped groundwater within the model domain, for example, it can be used for irrigation, managed aquifer recharge, or return-flow to streams.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2025

Laying sequence and oceanographic factors affect egg size in Scripps's Murrelets Synthliboramphus scrippsi at Santa Barbara Island

Egg size is an important avian life history parameter, with larger eggs indicating greater investment of resources in the chick. Prey availability can affect such investment. We investigated the effects of oceanographic conditions and laying sequence on Scripps's Murrelet Synthliboramphus scrippsi egg size at Santa Barbara Island, California during 2009-2017. We evaluated oceanographic covariates characterizing marine productivity for their effect on egg size, including large-scale oceanographic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. We also evaluated a larval anchovy catch-per-unit-effort (ANCHL) index and the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) as region-wide indices, and sea surface temperature (SST) as a local index. We evaluated oceanographic conditions over the entire year and during the breeding season only. We also considered the contribution of lagged effects to oceanographic conditions. Our results generally ran counter to our hypothesis that increased ocean productivity should increase egg size. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion, the four top-ranked models provided support for an association between larger eggs and conditions indicative of lower oceanographic productivity, including lower values of BEUTI and NPGO, and higher values of ONI, PDO, and SST. The only result that supported our hypothesis was a positive relationship between ANCHL and egg size, although the 95% confidence interval for the effect included 0. The strongest relationship detected was between laying sequence and egg size, as second eggs were considerably larger than first eggs. Our results indicate substantial complexity in the relationship between ocean productivity and seabird demography. A better understanding of how ocean productivity affects seabird breeding outcomes through multiple mechanisms will help improve predictions of how seabirds will respond to changing ocean conditions.

California↗
USGS2000

Environmental Contaminants and Terrestrial Vertebrates: Effects on Populations, Communities, and Ecosystems

The desire of resource managers, risk assessors, and the general public to better understand the consequences of environmental contamination has produced a strong and growing need for information on the effects of contaminants on populations and groups of species, and over moderate to large areas of land or water. However, the problems associated with research involving populations and groups of species or large and complex geographic areas, especially in terrestrial environments, are well known within the scientific community. With the previous thoughts in mind, an interactive symposium was held at the University of Maryland in October 1998. The purpose of the symposium was to review and critically evaluate our understanding of the effects of contaminants on terrestrial vertebrates at levels of organization above that of the individual. Invited background and technical presentations provided a common baseline of information for symposium participants. Discussion groups were then asked to critically evaluate the topics of two technical sessions. Several presentations of recent or ongoing research provided participants with examples of current approaches to assessments of the effects of contaminants on terrestrial vertebrates at the population or higher level of organization. The book consists of 10 chapters written by presenters at the symposium and three chapters conveying the reports of discussion group.

SETAC Special Publications Series.↗
USGS1997

Relationships between salt marsh loss and dredged canals in three Louisiana Estuaries

Coastal land loss rates were quantified for 27 salt marshes in three estuaries of the Louisiana Mississippi Deltaic plain: Barataria, Terrebonne and St. Bernard. The sites ranged from 23 ha to 908 ha and the total area of all sites was 6,367 ha. Two methods were used to calculate open water and canal density in each of five years: (1) a Geographic Information System for 1956 and 1978, and, (2) a point grid method for 1974, 1988, and 1990. A General Linear Model explained 79% of the variance (R2 = 0.79; P ??? 0.95) among basins for all years and provided an estimate of the impacts of canals in each basin. The land loss rates, virtually all occurring as wetland to open water conversions, were different in each basin. The 'background' land loss rates from 1956 to 1990 (exclusive of the direct or indirect effects of canals; %/yr; ?? + 1 Std. Dev.) for each basin were estimated to be: Barataria: 0.71 ?? 0.12, Terrebonne 0.47 ?? 0.09, and St. Bernard 0.08 ?? 0.14. Canals were equally and directly correlated with landloss in each basin. There was 2.85 ha of open water formed with each ha of canal dredged (inclusive of the canal area) and an additional 1 ha wetland converted to spoil bank vegetation. Additional losses may occur if loss rates continue for periods longer than the mapping intervals. There are documented causal mechanisms involving wetland hydrologic changes that can explain these wetland losses.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS1999

Pool 13 drawdown: Predicting success rates and affected areas

The likelihood of 1- or 2-foot drawdowns, and the area affected by such alternative drawdowns, was estimated for Pool 13 on the Upper Mississippi River. Minimum water surface (elevation) requirements were compared to computed water surface profiles to determine a critical low flow that would allow a navigation channel 400 feet wide and 10.5 feet deep. An upper limit on flow was established based on the flow at which open river conditions would exist for a given drawdown. The range in flows that would allow for a drawdown was used to estimate success rates using historical daily discharge data. Success rates were determined for a variety of drawdown durations between two time periods. May 1—August 15 and June 15—August 15. The greatest effect of the drawdown would he near Lock and Dam 13. Higher discharges, as well as distance from the dam. lessen the drawdown amount. Areas that would he affected by these two drawdown scenarios were predicted by overlaying maps of water surfaces with depths using a geographic information system. Although the drawdown effects on most physical and biotic components of Pool 13 arc unknown, some general drawdown effects likely to occur because of the changes in water surface elevation are presented.

Illinois, Iowa↗
USGS2023

Assimilating ecological theory with empiricism: Using constrained generalized additive models to enhance survival analyses

1. Integrating ecological theory with empirical methods is ubiquitous in ecology using hierarchical Bayesian models. However, there has been little development focused on integration of ecological theory into models for survival analysis. Survival is a fundamental process, linking individual fitness with population dynamics, but incorporating life history strategies to inform survival estimation can be challenging because mortality processes occur at multiple scales. 2. We develop an approach to survival analysis, incorporating model constraints based on a species' life history strategy using functional analytical tools. Specifically, we structurally separate intrinsic patterns of mortality that arise from age-specific processes (e.g. increasing survival during early life stages due to growth or maturation, versus senescence) from extrinsic mortality patterns that arise over different periods of time (e.g. seasonal temporal shifts). We use shape constrained generalized additive models (CGAMs) to obtain age-specific hazard functions that incorporate theoretical information based on classical survivorship curves into the age component of the model and capture extrinsic factors in the time component. 3. We compare the performance of our modelling approach to standard survival modelling tools that do not explicitly incorporate species life history strategy in the model structure, using metrics of predictive power, accuracy, efficiency and computation time. We applied these models to two case studies that reflect different functional shapes for the underlying survivorship curves, examining age-period survival for white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in Wisconsin, USA and Columbian sharp-tailed grouse T ympanuchus phasianellus columbianus in Colorado, USA.

Colorado, Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2015

Comparing methods for estimating larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) density in the St. Marys River for the purposes of control

The St. Marys River is a major producer of parasitic sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) to Lake Huron making it an important area for larval control. Bayluscide treatments are conducted in areas of high larval density requiring density estimation at fine spatial scales to inform treatment decisions. We evaluated six methods of estimating spatially specific density including the currently used sampling-based estimates, a generalized linear model (GLM) based on mean larval density per plot, a GLM based on larval density per sample, a generalized additive model based on mean larval density per plot, a spatial age-structured population model, and a hybrid approach, which averaged the best performing sampling- and model-based methods. Methods were evaluated based on accuracy in matching independent validation data. Specifically, the methods were evaluated based on their ability to project plot-level larval density, identify high density plots for treatment, and rank plots in order based on density resulting in high numbers of sea lampreys killed per hectare treated. Performance was variable, and no single method outperformed the others for all metrics. Although the sampling-based estimation method and the GLM based on catch data performed adequately for estimating density and identifying high density plots, the hybrid approach was identified as the best method to inform sea lamprey control decisions in the St. Marys River due to its consistent performance. Incorporating model-based approaches should lead to a more efficient and effective treatment program in the St. Marys River and aid in making decisions about the allocation of control resources.

St. Marys River↗