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Leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to advance Chesapeake Bay research and management: A review of status, challenges, and opportunities

The Chesapeake Bay and its watershed (hereafter “Chesapeake Bay region”) have been the focus of extensive restoration efforts for several decades. These restoration efforts are guided by the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement (Chesapeake Executive Council 2014) which outlines 10 goals and 31 measurable outcomes. The Chesapeake Bay is globally recognized as a model for coastal restoration due to long-term investments in monitoring, modeling, implementation and research by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) partnership. These monitoring network spans tidal and non-tidal regions and provides data across multiple scales. Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine-learning (ML) and deep learning (DL), has emerged as a powerful tool for analyzing large, complex datasets. These techniques have gained widespread adoption across various disciplines, including ecology, hydrology, and environmental science. In the Bay context, AI/ML is increasingly being used to explore drivers of environmental change, analyze system dynamics, and predict conditions in areas with limited monitoring. The CBP partnership, particularly its Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), has increasingly recognized the growing role of AI/ML in watershed and estuarine management. Recent Chesapeake Community Research Symposium sessions and initiatives such as the Chesapeake Global Collaboratory highlight increasing regional momentum to apply big data and AI/ML for environmental solutions. Together, these developments underscore the timely need to explore how AI/ML can help advance Chesapeake Bay restoration and management. This STAC workshop, titled “Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Machine learning to Advance Chesapeake Bay Research and Management: A review of status, challenges, and opportunities,” was held from February 24-25, 2025, in Edgewater, Maryland to bring together over 50 federal, state, and academic scientists and partners to synthesize the current state of AI/ML applications and identify research gaps in Chesapeake Bay research and management. The workshop focused on three main objectives: 1. Summarize recent AI/ML applications and lessons learned in both tidal and nontidal areas of the Chesapeake Bay region. 2. Identify challenges and gaps in applying AI/ML approaches to Chesapeake Bay data. Such challenges and gaps may include data limitations, harmonization issues, ineffective communication of AI/ML insights, and a lack of coordination among research and management institutions. 3. Develop recommendations and identify opportunities for leveraging AI/ML to address issues across the Chesapeake Bay region. Key areas of focus may include generating new information to support watershed management, delivering AI/MLgenerated insights to managers in a clear and actionable way, and fostering greater collaboration among stakeholders within the CBP Partnership. Workshop participants engaged in science presentations and breakout sessions to develop recommendations for advancing the integration of AI/ML techniques into research and management across the Chesapeake Bay region. By synthesizing current applications, identifying challenges, and exploring new opportunities, the workshop has provided valuable insights and recommendations for better leveraging AI/ML approaches to support the success of Bay restoration efforts. Together, these recommendations provide a roadmap for enhancing data-driven, science-based decision making aligned with the goals and outcomes of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

Effects of large-scale wetland loss on network connectivity of the Rainwater Basin, Nebraska

Context The Rainwater Basin region in south-central Nebraska supports a complex network of spatially-isolated wetlands that harbor diverse floral and faunal communities. Since European settlement, many wetlands have been lost from the network, which has increased distances among remaining wetlands. As a result, populations of wildlife species with limited dispersal capabilities may have become isolated and face greater local extinction risks. Objectives We compared the pre-European settlement and current extent of the Rainwater Basin network to assess the effects of wetland losses on network connectivity for a range of maximum dispersal distances. Methods We constructed network models for a range of maximum dispersal distances and calculated network metrics to assess changes in network connectivity and the relative importance of individual wetlands in regulating flow. Results Since European settlement, the number of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin has decreased by >90%. The average distance to the nearest neighboring wetland has increased by 150% to ~1.2 km, and the dispersal distance necessary to travel throughout the whole network has increased from 3.5 to 10.0 km. Last, relative importance of individual wetlands depended on the maximum dispersal distance. Which wetlands to preserve to maintain connectivity might therefore depend on the dispersal capabilities of the species or taxa of interest. Conclusions To preserve a broad range of biodiversity, conservation efforts should focus on preserving dense clusters of wetlands at fine spatial scales to maintain current levels of network connectivity, and restoring connections between clusters to facilitate long-range dispersal of species with limited dispersal capabilities.

Nebraska↗

Predicting bed shear stress and its role in sediment dynamics and restoration potential of the Everglades and other vegetated flow systems

Entrainment of sediment by flowing water affects topography, habitat suitability, and nutrient cycling in vegetated floodplains and wetlands, impacting ecosystem evolution and the success of restoration projects. Nonetheless, restoration managers lack simple decision-support tools for predicting shear stresses and sediment redistribution potential in different vegetation communities. Using a field-validated numerical model, we developed state-space diagrams that provide these predictions over a range of water-surface slopes, depths, and associated velocities in Everglades ridge and slough vegetation communities. Diminished bed shear stresses and a consequent decrease in bed sediment redistribution are hypothesized causes of a recent reduction in the topographic and vegetation heterogeneity of this ecosystem. Results confirmed the inability of present-day flows to entrain bed sediment. Further, our diagrams showed bed shear stresses to be highly sensitive to emergent vegetation density and water-surface slope but less sensitive to water depth and periphyton or floating vegetation abundance. These findings suggested that instituting a pulsing flow regime could be the most effective means to restore sediment redistribution to the Everglades. However, pulsing flows will not be sufficient to erode sediment from sloughs with abundant spikerush, unless spikerush density first decreases by natural or managed processes. Our methods provide a novel tool for identifying restoration parameters and performance measures in many types of vegetated aquatic environments where sediment erosion and deposition are involved.

Ecological Engineering↗

Comparison of bird community indices for riparian restoration planning and monitoring

The use of a bird community index that characterizes ecosystem integrity is very attractive to conservation planners and habitat managers, particularly in the absence of any single focal species. In riparian areas of the western USA, several attempts at arriving at a community index signifying a functioning riparian bird community have been made previously, mostly resorting to expert opinions or national conservation rankings for species weights. Because extensive local and regional bird monitoring data were available for Nevada, we were able to develop three different indices that were derived empirically, rather than from expert opinion. We formally examined the use of three species weighting schemes in comparison with simple species richness, using different definitions of riparian species assemblage size, for the purpose of predicting community response to changes in vegetation structure from riparian restoration. For the three indices, species were weighted according to the following criteria: (1) the degree of riparian habitat specialization based on regional data, (2) the relative conservation ranking of landbird species, and (3) the degree to which a species is under-represented compared to the regional species pool for riparian areas. To evaluate the usefulness of these indices for habitat restoration planning and monitoring, we modeled them using habitat variables that are expected to respond to riparian restoration efforts, using data from 64 sampling sites in the Walker River Basin in Nevada and California. We found that none of the species-weighting schemes performed any better as an index for evaluating overall habitat condition than using species richness alone as a community index. Based on our findings, the use of a fairly complete list of 30–35 riparian specialists appears to be the best indicator group for predicting the response of bird communities to the restoration of riparian vegetation.

Nevada↗

Climate adaption and post-fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather

1.The loss of foundational but fire-intolerant perennials such as sagebrush due to increases in fire size and frequency in semiarid regions has motivated efforts to restore them, often with mixed or even no success. Seeds of sagebrush Artemisia tridentata and related species must be moved considerable distances from seed source to planting sites, but such transfers have not been guided by an understanding of local climate adaptation. Initial seedling establishment and its response to weather are a key demographic bottleneck that likely varies among subspecies and populations of sagebrush. 2.We assessed differences in survival, growth, and physiological responses of sagebrush to weather among eleven seed sources that varied in subspecies, cytotype, and climates-of-origin over 18 months following outplanting. Diploid or polyploid populations of mountain, Wyoming, and basin big sagebrush ( A.tridentata ssp. vaseyana, A.tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, and A.tridentata ssp. tridentata , respectively) were planted onto five burned sites that normally support A.t.wyomingensis with some A.t.tridentata . 3.A.t.wyomingensis had the most growth and survival, and tetraploid populations had greater survival and height than diploids. Seasonal timing of mortality varied among the subspecies/cytotypes and was more closely related to minimum temperatures than water deficit. 4.Temperatures required to induce ice formation were up to 6°C more negative in 4n- A.t.tridentata and A.t.wyomingensis than other subspecies/cytotypes, indicating greater freezing avoidance. In contrast, freezing resistance of photosynthesis varied only 1°C among subspecies/cytotypes, being greatest in A.t.wyomingensis and least in the subspecies normally considered most cold-adapted, A.t.vaseyana . A large spectrum of reliance on freezing-avoidance vs. freezing-tolerance was observed and corresponded to differences in post-fire survivorship among subspecies/cytotypes. Differences in water deficit responses among subspecies/cytotypes were not as strong and did not relate to survival patterns. 5. Synthesis and applications. Low temperature responses are a key axis defining climate adaptation in young sagebrush seedlings and vary more with cytotype than with subspecies, which contrasts with the traditional emphases on (i) water limitations to explain establishment in these deserts, and (ii) subspecies in selecting restoration seedings. These important and novel insights on climate adaptation are critical for seed selection and parameterizing seed transfer zones, and were made possible by incorporating weather data with survival statistics. The survival/weather statistics used here could be applied to any restoration planting or seeding to help elucidate factors contributing to success and enable adaptive management.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Stable isotopes reveal that foraging strategy dictates trophic response of salt marsh residents to black mangrove Avicennia germinans range expansion

Climate warming has facilitated the expansion of black mangrove Avicennia germinans (hereafter ‘ Avicennia ’) into smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora (hereafter ‘ Spartina ’) salt marshes in southeastern Louisiana (USA). As macrophytes contribute to soil organic matter (SOM) and primary production, this transition could alter the basal energy pathways supporting salt marsh food webs. We used bulk-tissue and compound-specific stable isotope analyses (SIA) to determine if changes in dominant macrophytes alter basal energy pathways for 2 salt marsh residents: grass shrimp ( Palaemonetes spp.) and marsh periwinkle snails Littoraria irrorata . Specifically, we used Bayesian stable isotope mixing models to quantify the relative contribution of basal energy sources to SOM and resident food webs across a Spartina - Avicennia gradient in southeastern Louisiana. We found that sources of SOM changed in Avicennia -dominated habitat and that foraging strategy dictated trophic responses of salt marsh residents to Avicennia expansion. Marsh periwinkle snail basal energy sources shifted from Spartina to algae (phytoplankton and epiphytic macroalgae) reliance, while grass shrimp basal energy sources remained reliant on algal production, regardless of macrophyte dominance. Compound-specific SIA improved basal energy source distinctions and provided more constrained estimates of their contributions to resident food webs than bulk-tissue SIA. The importance of algal energy across the landscape warrants future investigations into the ability of Avicennia to support the diversity and abundance of algal energy sources present in Louisiana salt marshes. Understanding coastal wetland food web dynamics could help with planning and evaluating the most effective coastal restoration techniques (e.g. prioritizing salt marsh or mangrove habitat) in southeastern Louisiana.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

Quality and quantity of terrestrial landscape connectivity in the US Great Lakes Coastal Zone

Context The Great Lakes Coastal Zone (GLCZ), the world’s longest continuous freshwater coastline, consists of interspersed natural and developed landcover and is inhabited by millions of people. Anthropogenic change fragments the GLCZ, decreasing landscape connectivity. Objectives We evaluated functional landscape connectivity of the U.S. GLCZ, assessing regional connectivity, protected areas’ effects on connectivity, and identified pinchpoints where connectivity is most vulnerable. Methods We modeled landscape connectivity to describe corridors and redundant pathways for two scenarios: (1) continuous terrestrial habitat patches and (2) protected areas. We compared these two scenarios by total corridor area and quality at two spatial scales (coastal zone and ecoregion). We used random forest analyses to examine how ecological factors influenced the connectivity rank and pinchpoint values. A principal components analysis identified how land cover influenced connectivity among ecoregions. Results The GLCZ was 69% connected. Although 91% of the GLCZ’s high-quality habitat was within corridors, less than 50% of the corridor area was high-quality (low resistance to movement). While the northernmost region retained high-quality connectivity, connectivity loss and degradation increased with development further south. Corridors between protected areas provided less connectivity, of worse quality, in areas of development and agriculture. Lower connectivity was associated with higher impervious surface cover. Conclusions Protected area placement affected both the quantity and quality of connectivity. Improving and maintaining functional connectivity could be accomplished by strategically restoring and protecting habitats most vulnerable to connectivity loss, predominantly in urban and agricultural regions. Our connectivity improvement index is a useful tool to identify areas where connectivity may be improved.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗

Infectious diseases of fishes in the Salish Sea

As in marine regions throughout other areas of the world, fishes in the Salish Sea serve as hosts for many pathogens, including nematodes, trematodes, protozoans, protists, bacteria, viruses, and crustaceans. Here, we review some of the better-documented infectious diseases that likely contribute to significant losses among free-ranging fishes in the Salish Sea and discuss the environmental and ecological factors that may affect the population-level impacts of disease. Demonstration of these diseases and their impacts to critical and endangered resources provides justification to expand pathogen surveillance efforts and to incorporate disease forecasting and mitigation tools into ecosystem restoration efforts.

Washington↗

A metasystem approach to designing environmental flows

Accelerating the design and implementation of environmental flows (e-flows) is essential to curb the rapid, ongoing loss of freshwater biodiversity and the benefits it provides to people. However, the effectiveness of e-flow programs may be limited by a singular focus on ensuring adequate flow conditions at local sites, which overlooks the role of other ecological processes. Recent advances in metasystem ecology have shown that biodiversity patterns and ecosystem functions across river networks result from the interplay of local (environmental filtering and biotic interactions) and regional (dispersal) ecological processes. No guidelines currently exist to account for these processes in designing e-flows. We address this gap by providing a step-by-step operational framework that outlines how e-flows can be designed to conserve or restore metasystem dynamics. Our recommendations are relevant to diverse regulatory contexts and can improve e-flow outcomes even in basins with limited in situ data.

BioScience↗

Evaluating slash piles as habitat for a threatened salamander

Background Amplified wildfire activity in forests of the western United States threatens biodiversity. Fuel treatments can reduce fire severity, modify fire behavior, and restore forest structure and composition, yet impacts of some treatments, including slash piling and burning, on wildlife have received little attention. Piling of residual woody material may create habitable microenvironments for species that require cool, moist microclimates for all biological and ecological functions. One such species, the Sacramento Mountain salamander ( Aneides hardii Taylor), a relictual, endemic salamander narrowly distributed in the mountains of south-central New Mexico, USA, has been found below constructed slash piles within its range, but the characteristics of occupied slash piles and the extent of their occupancy has not yet been quantified. We surveyed for Sacramento Mountain salamanders in slash piles and under logs (cover objects) adjacent to piles and within a surrounding survey plot, and related salamander occupancy to slash pile and cover object characteristics, soil moisture and temperature, and environmental setting. Results We found Sacramento Mountain salamanders in 50% of surveyed slash piles. About 90% of salamanders were found in piles that contained black plastic sheeting, which held accumulations of moist leaf litter and other forest debris. We found no differences in pile characteristics, soil variables, or environmental setting between piles occupied by salamanders and piles in which no salamanders were detected. Salamander density was highest in slash piles, ~ 10% lower under cover objects in the survey area, and ~ 23% lower under cover objects adjacent to slash piles. Conclusions Slash piles serve as habitat for Sacramento Mountain salamanders. Our results suggest that within our study area or similar environments within the species range, any comparable slash pile has the potential to be occupied by salamanders. Species and habitat conservation measures indicated by this study and the timing of historical detections into mid-October include constructing smaller, pyramidal piles that minimize log-on-log or log-ground contact, avoiding the inclusion of black plastic in piles, limiting residence time of piles on the landscape, and initiating pile burning in late October or early November, when most salamanders are likely to have retreated below the ground surface.

New Mexico↗

Quantifying and predicting fuels and the effects of reduction treatments along successional and invasion gradients in sagebrush habitats

Sagebrush shrubland ecosystems in the Great Basin are prime examples of how altered successional trajectories can create dynamic fuel conditions and, thus, increase uncertainty about fire risk and behavior. Although fire is a natural disturbance in sagebrush, post-fire environments are highly susceptible to conversion to an invasive grass-fire regime (often referred to as a “grass-fire cycle”). After fire, native shrub-steppe plants are often slow to regenerate, whereas nonnative annuals, especially cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), can establish quickly and outcompete native species. Once fire-prone annuals become established, fire occurrences increase, further promoting dominance of nonnative species. The invasive grass-fire regime also alters nutrient and hydrologic cycles, pushing ecosystems beyond ecological thresholds toward steady-state, fire-prone, nonnative communities. These changes affect millions of hectares in the Great Basin and increase fire risk, decrease habitat quality and biodiversity, accelerate soil erosion, and degrade rangeland resources for livestock production. In many sagebrush landscapes, constantly changing plant communities and fuel conditions hinder attempts by land managers to predict and control fire behavior, restore native communities, and provide ecosystem services (e.g., forage production for livestock). We investigated successional and nonnative plant invasion states and associated fuel loads in degraded sagebrush habitat in a focal study area, the Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (hereafter the NCA), in the Snake River Plain Ecoregion of southern Idaho. We expanded our inference by comparing our findings to similar data collected throughout seven major land resource areas (MLRAs) across the Great Basin (JFSP Project “Fire Rehabilitation Effectiveness: A Chronosequence Approach for the Great Basin” [09-S-02-1]). 4 We used a combination of field-sampling, experimental treatments, and remotely sensed data to address the following questions: (1) How do fuel loads change along gradients of succession and invasion in sagebrush ecological sites? (2) How do fuel reduction treatments influence fuels in invaded areas formerly dominated by sagebrush? (3) How do fuel loads vary across landscapes and which remote sensing techniques are effective for characterizing them?

Idaho↗

A comparison of seed banks across a sand dune successional gradient at Lake Michigan dunes (Indiana, USA)

In habitats where disturbance is frequent, seed banks are important for the regeneration of vegetation. Sand dune systems are dynamic habitats in which sand movement provides intermittent disturbance. As succession proceeds from bare sand to forest, the disturbance decreases. At Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, we examined the seed banks of three habitat types across a successional gradient: foredunes, secondary dunes, and oak savanna. There were differences among the types of species that germinated from each of the habitats. The mean seed bank density increased across the successional gradient by habitat, from 376 to 433 to 968 seeds m -2 , but with foredune and secondary dune seed bank densities being significantly lower than the savanna seed bank density. The number of seeds germinated was significantly correlated with soil organic carbon, demonstrating for this primary successional sequence that seed density increases with stage and age. The seed bank had much lower species richness than that of the aboveground vegetation across all habitats. Among sites within a habitat type, the similarity of species germinated from the seed banks was very low, illustrating the variability of the seed bank even in similar habitat types. These results suggest that restoration of these habitats cannot rely on seed banks alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Plant Ecology↗

Measuring sediment accretion in early tidal marsh restoration

Sediment accretion is a critical indicator of initial progress in tidal marsh restoration. However, it is often difficult to measure early deposition rates, because the bottom surface is usually obscured under turbid, tidally-influenced waters. To accurately measure early sediment deposition in marshes, we developed an echosounder system consisting of a specialized acoustic profiler, differential global positioning system unit, and laptop computer mounted on a shallow-draft boat. We conducted a bathymetry at the Tubbs Setback tidal restoration site on San Pablo Bay, California, along north–south transects at 25-m intervals. Horizontal position was recorded within 1 m each second and water depth to 1 cm every 0.05 s. Bottom elevations were adjusted for tidal height with surveyed tide gages. We created detailed bathymetric maps (grid cell size: 12.5 m x 12.5 m) by interpolation with inverse distance weighting. During the third year after restoration, sediment accretion averaged 57.1 ± 1.1 cm and the estimated sediment gain was 132,900 m3. The mean difference between the elevations from the bathymetry system and the 9 sediment pins was 2.0 ± 1.0 cm. The mean difference of the intersection points of east–west and north–south survey transects was 2.1 ± 0.2 cm, which provided a measure of repeatability with changing water levels. Our echosounder system provided accurate and repeatable measurements of sediment accretion of a recently restored tidal wetland, and this system proved to be a viable tool for determining sediment deposition in marshes and assessing early restoration progress.

California↗

Evaluation of nekton use and habitat characteristics of restored Louisiana marsh

Marsh terracing and coconut fiber mats are two wetland restoration techniques implemented at Sabine National Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, USA. Using nekton as an indicator of habitat quality, nekton community assemblages were compared between terraced, coconut-matted, unmanaged marsh (restoration goal), and open water (pre-restoration) habitats. Using a throw trap and a 3 m ?? 2 m straight seine, 192 nekton samples were collected over four dates in 2001 and 2002 at all habitats. Nekton abundance was similar at unmanaged marsh (restoration goal), coconut mat, and terrace edge, and significantly higher than at open water (pre-restoration) sites (P < 0.05). Coconut-matted habitat and unmanaged marsh edges had significantly higher numbers of benthic dependent species than terrace edges (P < 0.05), potentially because of differences in substrate. Terraced sites had lower organic matter and siltier substrate as compared to unmanaged marsh sites. At Sabine NWR, terracing increased nekton use as compared to pre-restoration conditions (open water samples) by providing marsh edge habitat, but failed to support a nekton community similar to unmanaged marsh (restoration goals) or coconut-matted sites. Future restoration projects may evaluate the combined use of coconut mats with terracing projects in order to enhance habitat for benthic dependent nekton.

Ecological Engineering↗

Environmental tradeoffs of urban stream restoration in Fairfax County, Virginia

Regulatory mandates to improve water quality and stream health have driven substantial investment in stream restoration. Most projects aim to improve channel-floodplain connectivity, reduce sediment erosion, and enhance habitat for aquatic organisms, yet few include adequate pre- and post-restoration monitoring to assess outcomes. Since 2007, Fairfax County, Virginia, and the U.S. Geological Survey have partnered to monitor and evaluate water-quality conditions in Flatlick Branch. In 2018, a 1.72-km reach of stream above the monitoring station was restored using a Natural Channel Design approach. This study applied the Stream Functions Pyramid (SFP) framework to evaluate restoration tradeoffs. Post-restoration, watershed hydrology remained largely unchanged, but channel modifications increased flow capacity, reduced velocity, and further disconnected the channel from the floodplain. Nutrient and sediment reductions exceeded expected amounts, but the removal of over 20 % of riparian tree canopy increased physicochemical variability and the frequency and magnitude of water temperature heatwaves. Post-restoration, state standards for low dissolved oxygen and elevated pH were exceeded 2.5 and 7.5 times more often, respectively. Gross primary production and ecosystem respiration increased and organic matter sources supporting metabolism shifted from allochthonous to autochthonous. Trends in several benthic macroinvertebrate metrics, which were improving prior to construction, have since plateaued or declined, and the fish assemblage shifted from a native minnow dominated community to non-native, warmwater tolerant taxa. This study highlights the need for comprehensive assessments of stream restoration and benefits of using the SFP to understand the consequences and possible tradeoffs of different ecosystem management decisions.

Virginia↗

Proposed best modeling practices for assessing the effects of ecosystem restoration on fish

Large-scale aquatic ecosystem restoration is increasing and is often controversial because of the economic costs involved, with the focus of the controversies gravitating to the modeling of fish responses. We present a scheme for best practices in selecting, implementing, interpreting, and reporting of fish modeling designed to assess the effects of restoration actions on fish populations and aquatic food webs. Previous best practice schemes that tended to be more general are summarized, and they form the foundation for our scheme that is specifically tailored for fish and restoration. We then present a 31-step scheme, with supporting text and narrative for each step, which goes from understanding how the results will be used through post-auditing to ensure the approach is used effectively in subsequent applications. We also describe 13 concepts that need to be considered in parallel to these best practice steps. Examples of these concepts include: life cycles and strategies; variability and uncertainty; nonequilibrium theory; biological, temporal, and spatial scaling; explicit versus implicit representation of processes; and model validation. These concepts are often not considered or not explicitly stated and casual treatment of them leads to mis-communication and mis-understandings, which in turn, often underlie the resulting controversies. We illustrate a subset of these steps, and their associated concepts, using the three case studies of Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, the wetlands of coastal Louisiana, and the Everglades. Use of our proposed scheme will require investment of additional time and effort (and dollars) to be done effectively. We argue that such an investment is well worth it and will more than pay back in the long run in effective and efficient restoration actions and likely avoided controversies and legal proceedings.

Ecological Modelling↗

Mangrove forests in a rapidly changing world: Global change impacts and conservation opportunities along the Gulf of Mexico coast

Mangrove forests are highly-productive intertidal wetlands that support many ecosystem goods and services. In addition to providing fish and wildlife habitat, mangrove forests improve water quality, provide seafood, reduce coastal erosion, supply forest products, support coastal food webs, minimize flooding impacts, and support high rates of carbon sequestration. Despite their tremendous societal value, mangrove forests are threatened by many aspects of global change. Here, we examine the effects of global change on mangrove forests along the Gulf of Mexico coast, which is a valuable region for advancing understanding of global change impacts because the region spans multiple ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients that are representative of other mangrove transition zones across the world. We consider the historical and anticipated future responses of mangrove forests to the following aspects of global change: temperature change, precipitation change, accelerated sea-level rise, tropical cyclone intensification, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, eutrophication, invasive non-native species, and land use change. For each global change factor, we provide an initial global perspective but focus primarily on the three countries that border the Gulf of Mexico: United States, Mexico, and Cuba. The interactive effects of global change can have large ecological consequences, and we provide examples that highlight their importance. While some interactions between global change drivers can lead to mangrove mortality and loss, others can lead to mangrove expansion at the expense of other ecosystems. Finally, we discuss strategies for using restoration and conservation to maximize the adaptive capacity of mangrove forests to global change. To ensure that the ecosystem goods and services provided by mangrove forests continue to be available for future generations, there is a pressing need to better protect, manage, and restore mangrove forests as well as the adjacent ecosystems that provide opportunities for adaptation in response to global change.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

Correlates of biological soil crust abundance across a continuum of spatial scales: Support for a hierarchical conceptual model

1. Desertification negatively impacts a large proportion of the global human population and > 30% of the terrestrial land surface. Better methods are needed to detect areas that are at risk of desertification and to ameliorate desertified areas. Biological soil crusts are an important soil lichen-moss-microbial community that can be used toward these goals, as (i) bioindicators of desertification damage and (ii) promoters of soil stability and fertility. 2. We identified environmental factors that correlate with soil crust occurrence on the landscape and might be manipulated to assist recovery of soil crusts in degraded areas. We conducted three studies on the Colorado Plateau, USA, to investigate the hypotheses that soil fertility [particularly phosphorus (P), manganese (Mn) and zinc (Zn)] and/or moisture limit soil crust lichens and mosses at four spatial scales. 3. In support of the soil fertility hypothesis, we found that lichen-moss crusts were positively correlated with several nutrients [Mn, Zn, potassium (K) and magnesium (Mg) were most consistent] at three of four spatial scales ranging from 3.5 cm2 in area to c. 800 km2. In contrast, P was negatively correlated with lichen-moss crusts at three scales. 4. Community composition varied with micro-aspect on ridges in the soil crust. Three micro-aspects [north-north-west (NNW), east-north-east (ENE) and TOP] supported greater lichen and moss cover than the warmer, windward and more xeric micro-aspects [west-south-west (WSW) and south-south-east (SSE)]. This pattern was poorly related to soil fertility; rather, it was consistent with the moisture limitation hypothesis. 5. Synthesis and application. Use of crusts as desertification bioindicators requires knowledge of a site's potential for crust cover in the absence of desertification. We present a multi-scale model of crust potential as a function of site properties. Future quantitative studies can use this model to guide sampling efforts. Also, our results suggest new directions in restoration research: enhancement of moisture residence time and fertilization with key nutrients (Mn, Zn, K and Mg). Re-establishment of soil crusts in desertified lands will help regain lost soil stability and fertility, and facilitate plant re-establishment. ?? 2006 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗