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At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Decreased atmospheric nitrogen deposition in eastern North America: Predicted responses of forest ecosystems

Historical increases in emissions and atmospheric deposition of oxidized and reduced nitrogen (N) provided the impetus for extensive, global-scale research investigating the effects of excess N in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, with several regions within the Eastern Deciduous Forest of the United States found to be susceptible to negative effects of excess N. The Clean Air Act and associated rules have led to decreases in emissions and deposition of oxidized N, especially in eastern U.S., representing a research challenge and opportunity for ecosystem ecologists and biogeochemists. The purpose of this paper is to predict changes in the structure and function of North American forest ecosystems in a future of decreased N deposition. Hysteresis is a property of a system wherein output is not a strict function of corresponding input, incorporating lag, delay, or history dependence, particularly when the response to decreasing input is different from the response to increasing input. We suggest a conceptual hysteretic model predicting varying lag times in recovery of soil acidification, plant biodiversity, soil microbial communities, forest carbon (C) and N cycling, and surface water chemistry toward pre-N impact conditions. Nearly all of these can potentially respond strongly to reductions in N deposition. Most responses are expected to show some degree of hysteresis, with the greatest delays in response occurring in processes most tightly linked to “slow pools” of N in wood and soil organic matter. Because experimental studies of declines in N loads in forests of North America are lacking and because of the expected hysteresis, it is difficult to generalize from experimental results to patterns expected from declining N deposition. These will likely be long-term phenomena, difficult to distinguish from other, concurrent environmental changes, including elevated atmospheric CO 2 , climate change, reductions in acidity, invasions of new species, and long-term vegetation responses to past disturbance.

Environmental Pollution↗

USGS1984

Water-level and water-quality changes in Great Salt Lake, Utah, 1847-1983

The surface level of Great Salt Lake, Utah, fluctuates continuously, primarily in response to climatic factors. During 1847-1982 the lake surface fluctuated between a low of about 4,191 feet and a high of about 4,212 feet above sea level but showed no net change. From September 18, 1982, to June 30, 1983, however, the lake rose 5.2 feet-from about 4,200 to about 4,205 feet above sea level-which is the greatest seasonal rise ever recorded. That rise resulted from considerably greater than average rainfall in 1982, greater than average snowfall during the autumn of 1982 through the spring of 1983, and unseasonably cool weather during that spring. Man's activities have had a lesser, but still important effect on the lake level. The lake surface would have been about 5 feet higher in 1983 had there been no consumptive use of water owing to man's activities in the lake basin since 1847. The lake has been divided into two parts by a railroad causeway since 1959. The causeway restricts natural circulation, resulting in a difference of salinity and surface level of the lake across the causeway. The difference in surface level between the two parts of the lake varies both seasonally and annually and was as much as 3.25 feet in 1983. The water budget for the Great Salt Lake can be expressed as: Inflow = Outflow ± Storage change The average annual inflow for 1931-76 was about 2.9 million acre-feet-about 1.9 million acre-feet from surface water, about 900,000 acre-feet from direct precipitation, and about 75,000 acre-feet from ground water. The average annual outflow for the same period, all by evaporation, also was about 2.9 million acre-feet. There was no net change in storage during the period. The famed buoyancy of the brine in Great Salt Lake results from a dissolved-mineral content of almost 5 billion tons. More than 2 million additional tons have been added to the lake annually in recent years. The major dissolved ions in the brine are chloride, sulfate, sodium, magnesium, and potassium. Prior to completion of the railroad causeway, the salinity of the brine varied inversely with the lake level. Since the causeway divided the lake into two parts, the salinity of the brine in the north part has been relatively constant at or close to saturation. The salinity of the brine in the south part has 1 continued to change inversely with the lake level, but the salinity has been less than it would have been without the causeway.

Utah↗

USGS2004

Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario

Spring snowmelt is the most important contribution of many rivers in western North America. If climate changes, this contribution may change. A shift in the timing of springtime snowmelt towards earlier in the year already is observed during 1948-2000 in many western rivers. Streamflow timing changes for the 1995-2099 period are projected using regression relations between observed streamflow-timing responses in each river, measured by the temporal centroid of streamflow (CT) each year, and local temperature (TI) and precipitation (PI) indices. Under 21st century warming trends predicted by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) under business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions, streamflow timing trends across much of western North America suggest even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed to date. Projected CT changes are consistent with observed rates and directions of change during the past five decades, and are strongest in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, where many rivers eventually run 30-40 days earlier. The modest PI changes projected by PCM yield minimal CT changes. The responses of CT to the simultaneous effects of projected TI and PI trends are dominated by the TI changes. Regression-based CT projections agree with those from physically-based simulations of rivers in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2016

Analyses of infrequent (quasi-decadal) large groundwater recharge events in the northern Great Basin: Their importance for groundwater availability, use, and management

There has been a considerable amount of research linking climatic variability to hydrologic responses in the western United States. Although much effort has been spent to assess and predict changes in surface water resources, little has been done to understand how climatic events and changes affect groundwater resources. This study focuses on characterizing and quantifying the effects of large, multiyear, quasi-decadal groundwater recharge events in the northern Utah portion of the Great Basin for the period 1960–2013. Annual groundwater level data were analyzed with climatic data to characterize climatic conditions and frequency of these large recharge events. Using observed water-level changes and multivariate analysis, five large groundwater recharge events were identified with a frequency of about 11–13 years. These events were generally characterized as having above-average annual precipitation and snow water equivalent and below-average seasonal temperatures, especially during the spring (April through June). Existing groundwater flow models for several basins within the study area were used to quantify changes in groundwater storage from these events. Simulated groundwater storage increases per basin from a single recharge event ranged from about 115 to 205 Mm 3 . Extrapolating these amounts over the entire northern Great Basin indicates that a single large quasi-decadal recharge event could result in billions of cubic meters of groundwater storage. Understanding the role of these large quasi-decadal recharge events in replenishing aquifers and sustaining water supplies is crucial for long-term groundwater management.

Utah↗

USGS2002

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties

We are developing a process-based modelling approach to investigate how carbon (C) storage of tundra across the entire Arctic will respond to projected climate change. To implement the approach, the processes that are least understood, and thus have the most uncertainty, need to be identified and studied. In this paper, we identified a key uncertainty by comparing the responses of C storage in tussock tundra at one site between the simulations of two models - one a global-scale ecosystem model (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, TEM) and one a plot-scale ecosystem model (General Ecosystem Model, GEM). The simulations spanned the historical period (1921-94) and the projected period (1995-2100). In the historical period, the model simulations of net primary production (NPP) differed in their sensitivity to variability in climate. However, the long-term changes in C storage were similar in both simulations, because the dynamics of heterotrophic respiration (RH) were similar in both models. In contrast, the responses of C storage in the two model simulations diverged during the projected period. In the GEM simulation for this period, increases in RH tracked increases in NPP, whereas in the TEM simulation increases in RH lagged increases in NPP. We were able to make the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations agree by parameterizing TEM to the fast soil C pools of GEM. We concluded that the differences between the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations lay in modelling the role of the recalcitrant soil C. These differences, which reflect an incomplete understanding of soil processes, lead to quite different projections of the response of pan-Arctic C storage to global change. For example, the reference parameterization of TEM resulted in an estimate of cumulative C storage of 2032 g C m-2 for moist tundra north of 50??N, which was substantially higher than the 463 g C m-2 estimated for a parameterization of fast soil C dynamics. This uncertainty in the depiction of the role of recalcitrant soil C in long-term ecosystem C dynamics resulted from our incomplete understanding of controls over C and N transformations in Arctic soils. Mechanistic studies of these issues are needed to improve our ability to model the response of Arctic ecosystems to global change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2021

Metamorphosis in an era of increasing climate variability

Most animals have complex life cycles including metamorphosis or other discrete life stage transitions during which individuals may be particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors. With climate change, individuals will be exposed to increasing thermal and hydrologic variability during metamorphosis, which may affect survival and performance through physiological, behavioral, and ecological mechanisms. Furthermore, because metamorphosis entails changes in traits and vital rates, it is likely to play an important role in how populations respond to increasing climate variability. To identify mechanisms underlying population responses and associated trait and life history evolution, we need new approaches to estimating changes in individual traits and performance throughout metamorphosis, and we need to integrate metamorphosis as an explicit life stage in analytical models.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution↗

USGS2023

A river basin spatial model to quantitively advance understanding of riverine tree response dynamics to water availability and hydrological management

Ecological condition continues to decline in arid and semi-arid river basins globally due to hydrological over-abstraction combined with changing climatic conditions. Whilst provision of water for the environment has been a primary approach to alleviate ecological decline, how to accurately monitor changes in riverine trees at fine spatial and temporal scales, remains a substantial challenge. This is further complicated by constantly changing water availability across expansive river basins with varying climatic zones. Within, we combine rare, fine-scale, high frequency temporal in-situ field collected data with machine learning and remote sensing, to provide a robust model that enables broadscale monitoring of physiological tree water stress response to environmental changes via actual evapotranspiration (ET). Physiological variation of Eucalyptus camaldulensis (River Red Gum) and E. largiflorens (Black Box) trees across 10 study locations in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, was captured instantaneously using sap flow sensors, substantially reducing tree response lags encountered by monitoring visual canopy changes. Actual ET measurement of both species was used to bias correct a national spatial ET product where a Random Forest model was trained using continuous timeseries of in-situ data of up to four years. Precise monthly AMLETT ( A ustralia-wide M achine L earning ET for T rees) ET outputs in 30 m pixel resolution from 2012 to 2021, were derived by incorporating additional remote sensing layers such as soil moisture, land surface temperature, radiation and EVI and NDVI in the Random Forest model. Landsat and Sentinal-2 correlation results between in-situ ET and AMLETT ET returned R 2 of 0.94 (RMSE 6.63 mm period −1 ) and 0.92 (RMSE 6.89 mm period −1 ), respectively. In comparison, correlation between in-situ ET and a national ET product returned R 2 of 0.44 (RMSE 34.08 mm period −1 ) highlighting the need for bias correction to generate accurate absolute ET values. The AMLETT method presented here, enhances environmental management in river basins worldwide. Such robust broadscale monitoring can inform water accounting and importantly, assist decisions on where to prioritize water for the environment to restore and protect key ecological assets and preserve floodplain and riparian ecological function.

The Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2017

Atoll groundwater movement and its response to climatic and sea-level fluctuations

Groundwater resources of low-lying atoll islands are threatened due to short-term and long-term changes in rainfall, wave climate, and sea level. A better understanding of how these forcings affect the limited groundwater resources was explored on Roi-Namur in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. As part of a 16-month study, a rarely recorded island-overwash event occurred and the island’s aquifer’s response was measured. The findings suggest that small-scale overwash events cause an increase in salinity of the freshwater lens that returns to pre-overwash conditions within one month. The overwash event is addressed in the context of climate-related local sea-level change, which suggests that overwash events and associated degradations in freshwater resources are likely to increase in severity in the future due to projected rises in sea level. Other forcings, such as severe rainfall events, were shown to have caused a sudden freshening of the aquifer, with salinity levels retuning to pre-rainfall levels within three months. Tidal forcing of the freshwater lens was observed in electrical resistivity profiles, high-resolution conductivity, groundwater-level well measurements and through submarine groundwater discharge calculations. Depth-specific geochemical pore water measurements further assessed and confirmed the distinct boundaries between fresh and saline water masses in the aquifer. The identification of the freshwater lens’ saline boundaries is essential for a quantitative evaluation of the aquifers freshwater resources and help understand how these resources may be impacted by climate change and anthropogenic activities.

Water↗

USGS2025

How can we sea change? Audience subgroups and psychological cognitions to target in action-oriented ocean change communication

Climate change’s impacts on the oceans (“ocean change”) threaten people globally. Climate action is needed at multiple scales, from individual to collective action, and yet there is limited research on what motivates this action in response to ocean change. In this study, we conducted an online survey of residents of the state of Oregon, United States ( n = 1414), to assess concerns, personal importance, and risk perceptions regarding ocean change and explore potential psychological cognitions to target in action-oriented communication efforts. Our latent class analysis identified four distinct audience subgroups ranging from individuals who are Doubtful (9 %) about ocean change to those who are Cautious (20 %), Concerned (33 %), and Alarmed (38 %). Audience subgroups varied in their climate action intentions and associated psychological cognitions (i.e., psychological distance, efficacy beliefs, social norm perceptions). The climate action intentions of the Alarmed and Concerned were positively predicted by all cognitions, those of the Cautious were significantly predicted by social norms ( β = .15, p = .002) and efficacy beliefs ( β = .34, p < .001), and those of the Doubtful were only predicted by efficacy beliefs ( β = .23, p < .001). Across all four audiences, efficacy beliefs were strongly associated with intended climate action ( β = .30, p < .001), suggesting efficacy beliefs may be a practical cognition to target in broad audience communication efforts on ocean change. These findings reinforce the importance of targeting specific psychological cognitions and, ideally, distinct audiences in ocean change communication efforts intending to motivate widespread climate action.

Marine Policy↗

USGS2019

The long-term effects of Hurricanes Wilma and Irma on soil elevation change in Everglades mangrove forests

Mangrove forests in the Florida Everglades (USA) are frequently affected by hurricanes that produce high-velocity winds, storm surge, and extreme rainfall, but also provide sediment subsidies that help mangroves adjust to sea-level rise. The long-term influence of hurricane sediment inputs on soil elevation dynamics in mangrove forests are not well understood. Here, we assessed the effects of sediment deposition during Hurricanes Wilma (2005) and Irma (2017) on soil elevation change at two mangrove forests located along the Shark and Lostmans Rivers in Everglades National Park. We used surface elevation change data from a sixteen-year period (2002-2018), measured with the surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach. At the Shark River mangrove forest, we used marker horizons and a combination of deep, shallow, and original SETs to quantify the contributions of four soil zones to net soil elevation change. Rates of elevation change were greatly influenced by storm sediments. Abrupt increases in elevation due to sediment inputs and subsurface expansion during Hurricane Wilma were followed by: (1) an initial post-hurricane period of elevation loss due to erosion of hurricane sediments and subsurface contraction; (2) a secondary period of elevation gain due primarily to accretion; and (3) an abrupt elevation gain due to new sediment inputs during Hurricane Irma. Our findings suggest that elevation change in hurricane-affected mangrove forests can be cyclical or include disjunct phases, which is critical information for advancing the understanding of wetland responses to accelerated sea-level rise given the expectation of increasing storm intensity due to climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Hindcast of water availability in regional aquifer systems using MODFLOW Farm Process

Coupled groundwater and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle can be simulated by the Farm Process for MODFLOW (MF-FMP) in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas and aquifer-storage and recovery systems. MF-FMP is being applied to three productive agricultural regions of different scale in the State of California, USA, to assess the availability of water and the impacts of alternative management decisions. Hindcast simulations are conducted for similar periods from the 1960s to near recent times. Historical groundwater pumpage is mostly unknown in one region (Central Valley) and is estimated by MF-FMP. In another region (Pajaro Valley), recorded pumpage is used to calibrate model-estimated pumpage. Multiple types of observations are used to estimate uncertain parameters, such as hydraulic, land-use, and farm properties. MF-FMP simulates how climate variability and water-import availability affect water demand and supply. MF-FMP can be used to predict water availability based on anticipated changes in anthropogenic or natural water demands. Keywords groundwater; surface-water; irrigation; water availability; response to climate variability/change

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1–September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982–2003; PC1 mussel ) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1 discharge ; r = −0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1 mussel and PC1 discharge were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2026

Modeling the temperature-mediated link between demography and biomass in ectotherms

Population models can forecast the effects of environmental change, disturbance, and management decisions on populations of interest. Most population models focus on abundance of individuals, but biomass may be a more relevant quantity at the community or ecosystem scale, especially when investigating interaction of multiple stressors and cross-ecosystem energy flows. We developed a stage-structured population model that integrates a temperature-mediated tradeoff between development rate and final body size of invertebrates, allowing projection of both population size and standing stock biomass in ecosystems that experience disturbances. We parameterized the model for four aquatic invertebrate life-history types spanning a range of lifespan and susceptibility to disturbance. We observed several emergent properties typical of invertebrate populations but not explicitly included in the model, including self-organization of cohort structure under seasonal environments, a tradeoff between lifespan duration and rate of post-disturbance population recovery, and chaotic population dynamics under high growth rates. Sensitivity analysis revealed that although elevated mean temperature increased population size, total population biomass remained unchanged or even decreased due to declining individual biomass, which has implications for ecosystem processes under a changing climate. The seasonal timing of disturbance showed a strong interaction with temperature regime, with summer versus winter pulse disturbances affecting biomass and abundance in characteristically different ways. Linking invertebrate abundance and biomass dynamics to abiotic drivers through this time-varying matrix population model reveals how life-history shapes aquatic invertebrate response to shifting seasons, temperatures, and disturbance, which is key to understanding the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2012

Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramaticallylower than previously predicted

The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2020

Factors driving nutrient trends in streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although water-quality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2020

Seasonal and individual event-responsiveness are key determinants of carbon exchange across plant functional types

Differentiation in physiological activity is a critical component of resource partitioning in resource-limited environments. For example, it is crucial to understand how plant physiological performance varies through time for different functional groups to forecast how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to change. Here, we tracked the seasonal progress of 13 plant species representing C 3 shrub, perennial C 3 and C 4 grass, and annual forb functional groups of the Colorado Plateau, USA. We tested for differences in carbon assimilation strategies and how photosynthetic rates related to recent, seasonal, and annual precipitation and temperature variables. Despite seasonal shifts in species presence and activity, we found small differences in seasonally weighted annual photosynthetic rates among groups. However, differences in the timing of maximum assimilation ( A net ) were strongly functional group-dependent. C 3 shrubs employed a relatively consistent, low carbon capture strategy and maintained activity year-round but switched to a rapid growth strategy in response to recent climate conditions. In contrast, grasses maintained higher carbon capture during spring months when all perennials had maximum photosynthetic rates, but grasses were dormant during months when shrubs remained active. Perennial grass A net rates were explained in part by precipitation accumulated during the preceding year and average maximum temperatures during the past 48 h, a result opposite to shrubs. These results lend insight into diverse physiological strategies and their connections to climate, and also point to the potential for shrubs to increase in abundance in response to increased climatic variability in drylands, given shrubs’ ability to respond rapidly to changing conditions.

Oecologia↗

USGS2011

Equilibrium shoreline response of a high wave energy beach

Four years of beach elevation surveys at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, are used to extend an existing equilibrium shoreline change model, previously calibrated with fine sand and moderate energy waves, to medium sand and higher-energy waves. The shoreline, characterized as the cross-shore location of the mean high water contour, varied seasonally by between 30 and 60 m, depending on the alongshore location. The equilibrium shoreline change model relates the rate of horizontal shoreline displacement to the hourly wave energy E and the wave energy disequilibrium, the difference between E and the equilibrium wave energy that would cause no change in the present shoreline location. Values for the model shoreline response coefficients are tuned to fit the observations in 500 m alongshore segments and averaged over segments where the model has good skill and the estimated effects of neglected alongshore sediment transport are relatively small. Using these representative response coefficients for 0.3 mm sand from Ocean Beach and driving the model with much lower-energy winter waves observed at San Onofre Beach (also 0.3 mm sand) in southern California, qualitatively reproduces the small seasonal shoreline fluctuations at San Onofre. This consistency suggests that the shoreline model response coefficients depend on grain size and may be constant, and thus transportable, between sites with similar grain size and different wave climates. The calibrated model response coefficients predict that for equal fluctuations in wave energy, changes in shoreline location on a medium-grained (0.3 mm) beach are much smaller than on a previously studied fine-grained (0.2 mm) beach. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2014

Comparative biogeochemistry-ecosystem-human interactions on dynamic continental margins

The ocean’s continental margins face strong and rapid change, forced by a combination of direct human activity, anthropogenic CO 2 -induced climate change, and natural variability. Stimulated by discussions in Goa, India at the IMBER IMBIZO III, we (1) provide an overview of the drivers of biogeochemical variation and change on margins, (2) compare temporal trends in hydrographic and biogeochemical data across different margins (3) review ecosystem responses to these changes, (4) highlight the importance of margin time series for detecting and attributing change and (5) examine societal responses to changing margin biogeochemistry and ecosystems. We synthesize information over a wide range of margin settings in order to identify the commonalities and distinctions among continental margin ecosystems. Key drivers of biogeochemical variation include long-term climate cycles, CO 2 -induced warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, as well as sea level rise, eutrophication, hydrologic and water cycle alteration, changing land use, fishing, and species invasion. Ecosystem responses are complex and impact major margin services including primary production, fisheries production, nutrient cycling, shoreline protection, chemical buffering, and biodiversity. Despite regional differences, the societal consequences of these changes are unarguably large and mandate coherent actions to reduce, mitigate and adapt to multiple stressors on continental margins.

Journal of Marine Systems↗