SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Arctic”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,045 records · Page 58Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Divergent movements of walrus and sea ice in the northern Bering Sea

The Pacific walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens is a large Arctic pinniped of the Chukchi and Bering Seas. Reductions of sea ice projected to occur in the Arctic by mid-century raise concerns for conservation of the Pacific walrus. To understand the significance of sea ice loss to the viability of walruses, it would be useful to better understand the spatial associations between the movements of sea ice and walruses. We investigated whether local-scale (~1 to 100 km) walrus movements correspond to movements of sea ice in the Bering Sea in early spring, using locations from radio-tracked walruses and measures of ice floe movements from processed synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to analyze the angle between walrus and ice floe movement vectors and the distance between the final geographic position of walruses and their associated ice floes (displacement), as functions of observation duration, proportion of time the walrus was in water, and geographic region. Analyses were based on 121 walrus-ice vector pairs and observations lasting 12 to 36 h. Angles and displacements increased with observation duration, proportion of time the walrus spent in the water, and varied among regions (regional mean angles ranged from 40° to 81° and mean displacements ranged from 15 to 35 km). Our results indicated a lack of correspondence between walruses and their initially associated ice floes, suggesting that local areas of walrus activities were independent of the movement of ice floes.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2024

Assessing the population consequences of disturbance and climate change for the Pacific walrus

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbance are increasingly affecting wildlife at a global scale. Predicting how varying types and degrees of disturbance may interact to influence population dynamics is a key management challenge. Population consequences of disturbance (PCoD) models provide a framework to link effects of anthropogenic disturbance on an individual’s behavior and physiology to population-level changes. In the present study, we develop a Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) PCoD model to encompass the population-level effects of both anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. As the Arctic becomes increasingly ice-free, walruses spend more time at coastal (vs. ice-based) haulouts, from which they must expend more energy to reach foraging areas and where they have an elevated risk of mortality. Concurrently, sea ice loss is increasing the anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic (e.g. fisheries, shipping, energy exploration), which creates additional disturbance. We applied the PCoD model to 4 scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic) which incorporate different global sea ice model projections along with varying degrees of anthropogenic disturbance. All scenarios indicated a decline in Pacific walrus vital rates by the end of the 21st century, but our results demonstrated that the intensity of that decline could be mitigated by global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, along with local management and conservation efforts to protect important coastal haulouts and foraging grounds. In summary, we introduce a flexible PCoD modeling framework in a novel context which will prove useful to researchers studying species threatened by rapid environmental change.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2021

Complex vulnerabilities of the water and aquatic carbon cycles to permafrost thaw

The spatial distribution and depth of permafrost are changing in response to warming and landscape disturbance across northern Arctic and boreal regions. This alters the infiltration, flow, surface and subsurface distribution, and hydrologic connectivity of inland waters. Such changes in the water cycle consequently alter the source, transport, and biogeochemical cycling of aquatic carbon (C), its role in the production and emission of greenhouse gases, and C delivery to inland waters and the Arctic Ocean. Responses to permafrost thaw across heterogeneous boreal landscapes will be neither spatially uniform nor synchronous, thus giving rise to expressions of low to medium confidence in predicting hydrologic and aquatic C response despite very high confidence in projections of widespread near-surface permafrost disappearance as described in the 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Polar Regions. Here, we describe the state of the science regarding mechanisms and factors that influence aquatic C and hydrologic responses to permafrost thaw. Through synthesis of recent topical field and modeling studies and evaluation of influential landscape characteristics, we present a framework for assessing vulnerabilities of northern permafrost landscapes to specific modes of thaw affecting local to regional hydrology and aquatic C biogeochemistry and transport. Lastly, we discuss scaling challenges relevant to model prediction of these impacts in heterogeneous permafrost landscapes.

Arctic↗

USGS2014

Reservoir controls on the occurrence and production of gas hydrates in nature

Gas hydrates in both arctic permafrost regions and deep marine settings can occur at high concentrations in sand-dominated reservoirs, which have been the focus of gas hydrate exploration and production studies in northern Alaska and Canada, and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, off the southeastern coast of Japan, in the Ulleung Basin off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula, and along the eastern margin of India. Production testing and modeling has shown that concentrated gas hydrate occurrences in sand reservoirs are conducive to existing well-based production technologies. The resource potential of gas hydrate accumulations in sand-dominated reservoirs have been assessed for several polar terrestrial basins. In 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assigned an in-place resource of 16.7 trillion cubic meters of gas for hydrates in sand-dominated reservoirs on the Alaska North Slope. In a more recent assessment, the USGS indicated that there are about 2.42 trillion cubic meters of technically recoverable gas resources within concentrated, sand-dominated, gas hydrate accumulations in northern Alaska. Estimates of the amount of in-place gas in the sand dominated gas hydrate accumulations of the Mackenzie Delta Beaufort Sea region of the Canadian arctic range from 1.0 to 10 trillion cubic meters of gas. Another prospective gas hydrate resources are those of moderate-to-high concentrations within sandstone reservoirs in marine environments. In 2008, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management estimated that the Gulf of Mexico contains about 190 trillion cubic meters of gas in highly concentrated hydrate accumulations within sand reservoirs. In 2008, the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation reported on a resource assessment of gas hydrates in which they estimated that the volume of gas within the hydrates of the eastern Nankai Trough at about 1.1 trillion cubic meters, with about half concentrated in sand reservoirs. Because conventional production technologies favor sand-dominated gas hydrate reservoirs, sand reservoirs are considered to be the most viable economic target for gas hydrate production and will be the prime focus of most future gas hydrate exploration and development projects.

Book↗

USGS2019

Gas hydrate production testing – Knowledge gained

Since their initial discovery in the 1960’s, gas hydrates have been considered to be an important potential source of unconventional natural gas. Significant progress has been made relative to our understanding of the geologic and engineering controls on the ultimate energy potential of gas hydrate; however, more work is required to realize the promise of gas hydrates as a future energy source. Gas hydrates have been encountered, recovered or inferred to exist in numerous sedimentary basins in Arctic permafrost settings, regions of alpine permafrost, marine sediments of outer continental margins and in deep lakes. Despite the great abundance of potential gas hydrate resources in the world, a large portion of these resources reside in clay-rich sediments and fracture dominated reservoir systems, and are not generally considered producible with existing technology, but may have future potential with the emergence of new technologies. For a large portion of the world, gas hydrate in sand reservoirs have become a viable production target and the focus of the first production testing efforts. Production tests in Arctic Canada (Mackenzie Delta) and Alaska have shown that gas can be produced from highly-concentrated gas hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained (i.e., sand rich) reservoir systems with conventional production technologies. Production can be achieved through the depressurization method and by more complex methods such as molecular substitution (e.g., CO2-CH4 exchange). In 2013, the gas hydrate production test was conducted in a marine setting in the offshore of Japan. An additional test was conducted in Japan in 2017 to further evaluate alternative well completion technologies. Also in 2018, China initiated a 60-day gas hydrate production test in the Shenhu region of the South China Sea. This report reviews the results of gas hydrate engineering and production testing studies associated with the Mallik, Mount Elbert, and Iġnik Sikumi projects in northern Canada and Alaska. The results of the marine gas hydrate producing testing efforts in the Nankai Trough (Japan) and in the South China Sea (China) are also summarized

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

Recent lake ice-out phenology within and among lake districts of Alaska, U.S.A.

The timing of ice-out in high latitudes is a fundamental threshold for lake ecosystems and an indicator of climate change. In lake-rich regions, the loss of ice cover also plays a key role in landscape and climatic processes. Thus, there is a need to understand lake ice phenology at multiple scales. In this study, we observed ice-out timing on 55 large lakes in 11 lake districts across Alaska from 2007 to 2012 using satellite imagery. Sensor networks in two lake districts validated satellite observations and provided comparison with smaller lakes. Over this 6 yr period, the mean lake ice-out for all lakes was 27 May and ranged from 07 May in Kenai to 06 July in Arctic Coastal Plain lake districts with relatively low inter-annual variability. Approximately 80% of the variation in ice-out timing was explained by the date of 0°C air temperature isotherm and lake area. Shoreline irregularity, watershed area, and river connectivity explained additional variation in some districts. Coherence in ice-out timing within the lakes of each district was consistently strong over this 6 yr period, ranging from r-values of 0.5 to 0.9. Inter-district analysis of coherence also showed synchronous ice-out patterns with the exception of the two arctic coastal districts where ice-out occurs later (June–July) and climatology is sea-ice influenced. These patterns of lake ice phenology provide a spatially extensive baseline describing short-term temporal variability, which will help decipher longer term trends in ice phenology and aid in representing the role of lake ice in land and climate models in northern landscapes.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes

Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control , which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal vegetation types distributed as suggested by the paleoecological record, (iv) thaw lakes, which used the present-day distribution of lakes and wetlands, and (v) post-11 ka All , incorporating all boundary conditions changed in experiments (ii)–(iv). We find that regional-scale controls strongly mediate the climate responses to changes in the large-scale controls, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in the simulated climate changes. The change from tundra to deciduous woodland produces additional widespread warming in spring and early summer over that induced by the 11 ka insolation regime alone, and lakes and wetlands produce modest and localized cooling in summer and warming in winter. The greatest effect is the flooding of the land bridge and shelves, which produces generally cooler conditions in summer but warmer conditions in winter and is most clearly manifest on the flooded shelves and in eastern Beringia. By 6 ka continued amplification of the seasonal cycle of insolation and loss of the Laurentide ice sheet produce temperatures similar to or higher than those at 11 ka, plus a longer growing season.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: Millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years

A synthesis of 93 hydrologic records from across North and Central America, and adjacent tropical and Arctic islands, reveals centennial to millennial trends in the regional hydroclimates of the Common Era (CE; past 2000 years). The hydrological records derive from materials stored in lakes, bogs, caves, and ice from extant glaciers, which have the continuity through time to preserve low-frequency ( > 100 year) climate signals that may extend deeper into the Holocene. The most common pattern, represented in 46 (49 %) of the records, indicates that the centuries before 1000 CE were drier than the centuries since that time. Principal component analysis indicates that millennial-scale trends represent the dominant pattern of variance in the southwestern US, northeastern US, mid-continent, Pacific Northwest, Arctic, and tropics, although not all records within a region show the same direction of change. The Pacific Northwest and the southernmost tier of the tropical sites tended to dry toward present, as many other areas became wetter than before. In 22 records (24 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period (800–1300 CE) was drier than the Little Ice Age (1400–1900 CE), but in many cases the difference was part of the longer millennial-scale trend, and, in 25 records (27 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period represented a pluvial (wet) phase. Where quantitative records permitted a comparison, we found that centennial-scale fluctuations over the Common Era represented changes of 3–7 % in the modern interannual range of variability in precipitation, but the accumulation of these long-term trends over the entirety of the Holocene caused recent centuries to be significantly wetter, on average, than most of the past 11 000 years.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS2024

Geolocators, stable isotopes, and citizen science identify migratory timing, route, and spring molt of Smith’s Longspurs

Climate change is having a disproportionate impact on the Arctic. For Arctic breeding birds, basic knowledge of their annual cycle, specifically the timing, route, and movement behavior of migration, is needed to understand when and where populations may experience threats. We used a combination of geolocators and stable isotope analysis to identify route and timing of migration in Smith’s Longspurs ( Calcarius pictus ) that breed in Alaska’s Brooks Range. We trapped males on their breeding grounds from 2011 to 2014 and collected head feathers for stable isotopes of hydrogen (δ²H). We deployed 22 geolocators on a subset of individuals and retrieved four, which all overwintered in southern Texas. Individual start dates for fall migration based on geolocators were more variable than for the spring, and individuals were highly mobile while on their wintering grounds. Geolocators and stable isotope values were comparable across years and indicated that birds from the Brooks Range undergo their pre-nuptial molt in central Canada. We compared geolocator and stable isotope inferred locations to observations submitted to e-Bird and found that longspurs were distributed farther south during the winter months, but farther north during the spring than most eBird observations. Concurrent deployments of geolocator tags across Smith’s Longspurs’ breeding range would clarify whether migratory behaviors and routes are population-specific or shared widely across breeding locations.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2018

Alaska

Alaska is the largest state in the Nation, almost one-fifth the size of the combined lower 48 United States, and is rich in natural capital resources. Alaska is often identified as being on the front lines of climate change since it is warming faster than any other state and faces a myriad of issues associated with a changing climate. The cost of infrastructure damage from a warming climate is projected to be very large, potentially ranging from $110 to $270 million per year, assuming timely repair and maintenance. Although climate change does and will continue to dramatically transform the climate and environment of the Arctic, proactive adaptation in Alaska has the potential to reduce costs associated with these impacts. This includes the dissemination of several tools, such as guidebooks to support adaptation planning, some of which focus on Indigenous communities. While many opportunities exist with a changing climate, economic prospects are not well captured in the literature at this time. As the climate continues to warm, there is likely to be a nearly sea ice-free Arctic during the summer by mid-century. Ocean acidification is an emerging global problem that will intensify with continued carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and negatively affects organisms. Climate change will likely affect management actions and economic drivers, including fisheries, in complex ways. The use of multiple alternative models to appropriately characterize uncertainty in future fisheries biomass trajectories and harvests could help manage these challenges. As temperature and precipitation increase across the Alaska landscape, physical and biological changes are also occurring throughout Alaska’s terrestrial ecosystems. Degradation of permafrost is expected to continue, with associated impacts to infrastructure, river and stream discharge, water quality, and fish and wildlife habitat. Longer sea ice-free seasons, higher ground temperatures, and relative sea level rise are expected to exacerbate flooding and accelerate erosion in many regions, leading to the loss of terrestrial habitat in the future and in some cases requiring entire communities or portions of communities to relocate to safer terrain. The influence of climate change on human health in Alaska can be traced to three sources: direct exposures, indirect effects, and social or psychological disruption. Each of these will have different manifestations for Alaskans when compared to residents elsewhere in the United States. Climate change exerts indirect effects on human health in Alaska through changes to water, air, and soil and through ecosystem changes affecting disease ecology and food security, especially in rural communities. Alaska’s rural communities are predominantly inhabited by Indigenous peoples who may be disproportionately vulnerable to socioeconomic and environmental change; however, they also have rich cultural traditions of resilience and adaptation. The impacts of climate change will likely affect all aspects of Alaska Native societies, from nutrition, infrastructure, economics, and health consequences to language, education, and the communities themselves. The profound and diverse climate-driven changes in Alaska’s physical environment and ecosystems generate economic impacts through their effects on environmental services. These services include positive benefits directly from ecosystems (for example, food, water, and other resources), as well as services provided directly from the physical environment (for example, temperature moderation, stable ground for supporting infrastructure, and smooth surface for overland transportation). Some of these effects are relatively assured and in some cases are already occurring. Other impacts are highly uncertain, due to their dependence on the structure of global and regional economies and future human alterations to the environment decades into the future, but they could be large. In Alaska, a range of adaptations to changing climate and related environmental conditions are underway and others have been proposed as potential actions, including measures to reduce vulnerability and risk, as well as more systemic institutional transformation.

Report↗

USGS1982

Measurements of fall migrant peregrine falcons from Texas and New Jersey

Three subspecies of Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus) breed in North America: F. p. anatum, formerly bred in all eco-geographic regions of North America south of the Arctic tundra, except for the immediate vicinity of the northwest Pacific Coast; F. p. tundrius breeds in the Arctic tundra; and F. p. pealei, a relatively sedentary form, occupies the region of the northwest Pacific coast excluded from the range of F. p. anatum (Fyfe et al. 1976). Compared with tundrius, anatum is larger and darker, and the white auricular area is less extensive in proportion to the black malar stripe (White 1968a). This paper presents morphological information from two migrant populations. Also, measurements are compared with F. p. tundrius described by White (1968a,b), although shrinkage in study skins (the source of White's measurements) was recently documented (Fjelds• 1980) and confounds direct comparison.

Texas, New Jersey↗

USGS1997

An example of endurance in an old wolf, Canis lupus

An 11 to 13-year-old Arctic Wolf (Canis lupus arctos) was observed chasing a young Arctic Hare (Lepus arcticus) for 6 to 7 minutes and catching it. This provides an example of the degree of endurance of which an old wolf is capable.

Canadian Field-Naturalist↗

USGS2009

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38 (5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific investigations. In summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate.

Interfaces↗

USGS1997

Distribution of autumn-staging Lesser Snow Geese on the northeast coastal plain of Alaska

We conducted aerial surveys of Lesser Snow Geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens ) during autumn staging on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in northeast Alaska from late August through September, 1982 - 1993. We evaluated numbers and distribution of Snow Geese that staged on the ANWR, compared abundance of birds among 5 x 5-km cells used frequently (5 - 8 yr), periodically (3 - 4 yr), or infrequently (1 - 2 yr), and examined distribution changes within years. Maximum numbers of Snow Geese observed annually were highly variable (range 12,828 - 309,225). Snow Goose flocks occurred across 605,000 ha of the coastal plain, but used some areas more frequently than others. Frequently used cells (38 of 363 cells in the study area) were non-randomly distributed and primarily occurred on the central coastal plain between the wet coastal and steep foothills regions. Abundance of geese was greatest in frequently used, intermediate in periodically used, and lowest in infrequently used cells. Within years, Snow Goose numbers and flock locations varied between surveys, possibly because geese moved to different foraging areas during staging. The widespread distribution and annual variability in numbers of Snow Geese on the coastal plain was likely because birds used foraging habitats that were spatially and temporally heterogeneous. The ANWR coastal plain is an important component of the fall-staging area used by Snow Geese that nest in the western Canadian Arctic. Management decisions that affect the region should reflect its value to migrating Snow Geese.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Sequence stratigraphy of the Kingak Shale (Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous), National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska

Beaufortian strata (Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous) in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) are a focus of exploration since the 1994 discovery of the nearby Alpine oil field (>400 MMBO). These strata include the Kingak Shale, a succession of depositional sequences influenced by rift opening of the Arctic Ocean Basin. Interpretation of sequence stratigraphy and depositional facies from a regional two-dimensional seismic grid and well data allows the definition of four sequence sets that each displays unique stratal geometries and thickness trends across NPRA. A Lower to Middle Jurassic sequence set includes numerous transgressive-regressive sequences that collectively built a clastic shelf in north-central NPRA. Along the south-facing, lobate shelf margin, condensed shales in transgressive systems tracts downlap and coalesce into a basinal condensed section that is likely an important hydrocarbon source rock. An Oxfordian-Kimmeridgian sequence set, deposited during pulses of uplift on the Barrow arch, includes multiple transgressive-regressive sequences that locally contain well-winnowed, shoreface sandstones at the base of transgressive systems tracts. These shoreface sandstones and overlying shales, deposited during maximum flooding, form stratigraphic traps that are the main objective of exploration in the Alpine play in NPRA. A Valanginian sequence set includes at least two transgressive-regressive sequences that display relatively distal characteristics, suggesting high relative sea level. An important exception is the presence of a basal transgressive systems tract that locally contains shoreface sandstones of reservoir quality. A Hauterivian sequence set includes two transgressive-regressive sequences that constitute a shelf-margin wedge developed as the result of tectonic uplift along the Barrow arch during rift opening of the Arctic Ocean Basin. This sequence set displays stratal geometries suggesting incision and synsedimentary collapse of the shelf margin.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: briefing summary

The African-Eurasian Waterbird Agreement (AEWA; http://www.unep-aewa.org/) calls for means to manage populations which cause conflicts with certain human economic activities. The Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose has been selected as the first test case for such an international species management plan to be developed. This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest management (AHM) strategy for maintaining pink-footed goose abundance near their target level by providing for sustainable harvasts in Norway and Denmark. This briefing supplements material provided in the Progress Summary distributed to the International Working Group on February 1, 2013. We emphasize that peer review is an essential aspect of the process of developing and implementing an AHM program for pink-footed geese, and we will continue to solicit reviews by the International Working Group and their staff, as well as scientists not engaged in this effort. We wish to make the Working Group aware the the following two manuscripts have been submitted recently to refereed journals and are available upon request from the senior authors: Jensen, G.H., J. Madsen, F.A. Johnson, and M. Tamstorf. Snow conditions as an estimator of the breeding output in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Polar Biology: In review. Johnson, F.A., G.H. Jensen, J. Madsen, and B.K. Williams. Uncertainity, robustness, and the value of information in managing an expanding Arctic goose population. Ecological Modeling: In review. In addition to these manuscripts, the Progress Summary (February 1, 2013), and this Briefing Summary (April 23, 2013) an annual report will be produced in August 2013 and every summer thereafter. Additional manuscripts for journal publication are also anticipated.

Report↗

USGS2007

Predicting and validating the motion of an ash cloud during the 2006 eruption of Mount Augustine volcano

On 11 January 2006, Mount Augustine volcano in southern Alaska began erupting after 20- year repose. The Anchorage Forecast Office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an advisory on 28 January for Kodiak City. On 31 January, Alaska Airlines cancelled all flights to and from Anchorage after multiple advisories from the NWS for Anchorage and the surrounding region. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) had reported the onset of the continuous eruption. AVO monitors the approximately 100 active volcanoes in the Northern Pacific. Ash clouds from these volcanoes can cause serious damage to an aircraft and pose a serious threat to the local communities, and to transcontinental air traffic throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic region. Within AVO, a dispersion model has been developed to track the dispersion of volcanic ash clouds. The model, Puff, was used operational by AVO during the Augustine eruptive period. Here, we examine the dispersion of a volcanic ash (or aerosol) cloud from Mount Augustine across Alaska from 29 January through the 2 February 2006. We present the synoptic meteorology, the Puff predictions, and measurements from aerosol samplers, laser radar (or lidar) systems, and satellites. Aerosol samplers revealed the presence of volcanic aerosols at the surface at sites where Puff predicted the ash clouds movement. Remote sensing satellite data showed the development of the ash cloud in close proximity to the volcano consistent with the Puff predictions. Two lidars showed the presence of volcanic aerosol with consistent characteristics aloft over Alaska and were capable of detecting the aerosol, even in the presence of scattered clouds and where the ash cloud is too thin/disperse to be detected by remote sensing satellite data. The lidar measurements revealed the different trajectories of ash consistent with the Puff predictions. Dispersion models provide a forecast of volcanic ash cloud movement that might be undetectable by any other means but are still a significant hazard. Validation is the key to assessing the accuracy of any predictions. The study highlights the use of multiple and complementary observations used in detecting the trajectory ash cloud, both at the surface and aloft in the atmosphere.

Alaska↗

USGS2006

Future for polar bears in a declining sea ice environment: What do we know?

During an April 22, 2006, interview on the CBC radio program “The House,” Tim Flannery, author of the recent book “The Weathermakers,” stated, “Projections of the polar bear specialists are that by about 2030, around that date, the species will be extinct because of global warming induced changes in the Arctic sea ice.” That statement was followed on May 4th by quotations in the Toronto Globe and Mail from Dr. Mitch Taylor, a polar bear researcher in Nunavut, Canada, claiming, “polar bears have survived both warmer times and colder times than these,” that “nothing has melted the Arctic sea ice for 30 million years,” that “polar bears are remarkably adaptable,” and that “a warming climate might even benefit polar bears.”

Conference Paper↗