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USGS2023

Assessment of potential recovery viability for Colorado Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus lucius in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

Colorado Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus lucius, the Colorado River’s top native predatory fish, was historically distributed from the Gulf of California delta to the upper reaches of the Green, Colorado, and San Juan rivers in the Colorado River basin in the Southwestern US. In recent decades Colorado Pikeminnow population abundance has declined, primarily due to predation by warmwater nonnative fish and habitat modification following dam construction. Small, reproducing populations remain in the Green and upper Colorado rivers, but their current population trajectory is declining and the San Juan River population is maintained primarily through stocking. As such, establishment of an additional population could aid recovery efforts and increase the species’ resilience and population redundancy. The Colorado River in Grand Canyon once supported Colorado Pikeminnow, but until recently habitat suitability in this altered reach was considered low due to a depressed thermal regime and abundant nonnative predators. Climate change and ongoing drought has presented an opportunity to evaluate the feasibility of native fish restoration in a system where declining reservoir storage has led to warmer releases and re-emergence of riverine habitat. These changes in the physical attributes of the river have occurred in concert with a system-wide decline in nonnative predators. Conditions ten years ago were not compatible with reintroduction feasibility in Grand Canyon; however, due to rapidly changing conditions an expert Science Panel was convened to evaluate whether the physical and biological attributes of this reach could now support various life stages of Colorado Pikeminnow. Here, we report on the evaluation process and outcome from the Science Panel, which developed a science-based recommendation to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on reintroduction feasibility. The Science Panel concluded that current habitat attributes in Grand Canyon could satisfy some, but perhaps not all, Colorado Pikeminnow life history requirements. This reach has the potential to support adult and sub-adult growth, foraging, migrations, and spawning, but low juvenile survival may limit recruitment. However, populations of other native species are successfully reproducing and increasing in western Grand Canyon, even in areas once considered suboptimal habitat. Should managers decide to move to the next phase of this process, actions such as experimental stocking and monitoring, telemetry studies, bioenergetics modeling, and laboratory-based research may provide additional information to further evaluate a potential reintroduction effort in this rapidly changing but highly altered system.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Survival of Common Loon chicks appears unaffected by Bald Eagle recovery in northern Minnesota

Recovering species are not returning to the same environments or communities from which they disappeared. Conservation researchers and practitioners are thus faced with additional challenges in ensuring species resilience in these rapidly changing ecosystems. Assessing the resilience of species in these novel systems can still be guided by species’ ecology, including knowledge of their population size, life history traits, and behavioral adaptations, as well as the type, strength, and number of ways that they interact with other species in the community. We summarized broad trends of Common Loons ( Gavia immer ) breeding at Voyageurs National Park from 1973 to 2009, and evaluated the effects of increased risk from recovering Bald Eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) on chick survival from 2004 to 2006. Adult Common Loons appear to have increased over time. Using Bayesian survival models that accounted for imperfect detection of unmarked individuals, we determined that chick survival of Common Loons was high from year to year and was unrelated to predation risk from Bald Eagles because chicks in territories closer to active nests did not experience greater mortality than those farther away. We suggest that Common Loon chicks were unaffected by the recovery of this top predator during the three years of sampling. Previous research indicates that Bald Eagles and other predators are an important source of egg losses, but Common Loons can compensate by re-nesting. Despite current uncertainties from anthropogenic threats, knowledge of a species’ ecology remains instrumental in determining its resilience during recovery.

Minnesota↗

USGS2009

Postmortem evaluation of reintroduced migratory Whooping Cranes in eastern North America

Reintroduction of endangered Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ) in eastern North America has successfully established a migratory population between Wisconsin and Florida. Eighty birds (47 males, 33 females) were released between 2001 and 2006, and all birds were tracked following release with satellite and/or VHF monitoring devices. By the end of 2006, 17 deaths (12 males, five females) were recorded from this population. Postmortem findings and field data were evaluated for each bird to determine the cause of death. Causes included predation ( n =8, 47%), trauma ( n =2, 12%), and degenerative disease ( n =1, 6%); the cause of death was undetermined for 35% ( n =6) of the birds. Based on physical evidence, the primary predator of the birds was the bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). Limited roosting habitat availability or bird behavior were likely prime factors in the occurrence of predation. Traumatic injuries and mortality were caused by gunshot, electrical utility lines, and an unknown source. The lone case of degenerative disease was due to chronic exertional myopathy associated with translocation. Available postmortem testing did not indicate the presence of infectious disease in this limited sample.

Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Michigan, South Carolin↗

USGS2020

Historical museum collections and contemporary population studies implicate roads and introduced predatory bullfrogs in the decline of western pond turtles

The western pond turtle (WPT), recently separated into two paripatrically distributed species ( Emys pallida and Emys marmorata ), is experiencing significant reductions in its range and population size. In addition to habitat loss, two potential causes of decline are female-biased road mortality and high juvenile mortality from non-native predatory bullfrogs ( Rana catesbeiana ). However, quantitative analyses of these threats have never been conducted for either species of WPT. We used a combination of historical museum samples and published and unpublished field studies shared with us through personal communications with WPT field researchers (B. Shaffer, P. Scott, R. Fisher, C. Brown, R. Dagit, L. Patterson, T. Engstrom, 2019, personal communications) to quantify the effect of roads and bullfrogs on WPT populations along the west coast of the United States. Both species of WPT shift toward increasingly male biased museum collections over the last century, a trend consistent with increasing, female-biased road mortality. Recent WPT population studies revealed that road density and proximity were significantly associated with increasingly male-biased sex ratios, further suggesting female-biased road mortality. The mean body size of museum collections of E. marmorata , but not E. pallida , has increased over the last 100 years, consistent with reduced recruitment and aging populations that could be driven by invasive predators. Contemporary WPT population sites that co-occur with bullfrogs had significantly greater average body sizes than population sites without bullfrogs, suggesting strong bullfrog predation on small WPT hatchlings and juveniles. Overall, our findings indicate that both species of WPT face demographic challenges which would have been difficult to document without the use of both historical data from natural history collections and contemporary demographic field data. Although correlational, our analyses suggest that female-biased road mortality and predation on small turtles by non-native bullfrogs are occurring, and that conservation strategies reducing both may be important for WPT recovery.

Baja California, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2013

New insights into the diets of harbor seals in the Salish Sea revealed by quantitative fatty acid signature analysis

Harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina ) are an abundant predator along the west coast of North America, and there is considerable interest in their diet composition, especially in regard to predation on valued fish stocks. Available information on harbor seal diets, primarily derived from scat analysis, suggests that adult salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.), Pacific Herring ( Clupea pallasii ), and gadids predominate. Because diet assessments based on scat analysis may be biased, we investigated diet composition through quantitative analysis of fatty acid signatures. Blubber samples from 49 harbor seals captured in western North America from haul-outs within the area of the San Juan Islands and southern Strait of Georgia in the Salish Sea were analyzed for fatty acid composition, along with 269 fish and squid specimens representing 27 potential prey classes. Diet estimates varied spatially, demographically, and among individual harbor seals. Findings confirmed the prevalence of previously identified prey species in harbor seal diets, but other species also contributed significantly. In particular, Black ( Sebastes melanops ) and Yellowtail ( S. flavidus ) Rockfish were estimated to compose up to 50% of some individual seal diets. Specialization and high predation rates on Black and Yellowtail Rockfish by a subset of harbor seals may play a role in the population dynamics of these regional rockfish stocks that is greater than previously realized.

British Columbia, Washington↗

USGS1998

Effects of food supplementation on depredation of duck nests in prairies by striped skunks

We examined provision of supplemental food as a method for reducing depredation of upland-duck nests, especially by striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis). Predators negatively influence duck recruitment in grassland ecosystems. Managers are in search of methods, particularly nonlethal methods, for reducing nest depredation. We conducted this study on 24 areas managed for wildlife production in the Prairie Pothole Region of central North Dakota during 1993-1994. We provided a mix of fish offal and sunflower seeds on 12 areas; no food was provided on the remaining 12 control areas. Although we observed a tendency during both years for higher nest success rates on provisioned areas ( = 46%, 1993; 36%, 1994) than on control areas ( = 27%, 1993; 31%, 1994), mean nest success rates (Mayfield 1961) overall did not differ significantly between food-provisioned areas ( = 41%) and control areas ( = 29%). Striped skunk depredation rate was lower on food-provisioned areas (11%) than on control areas (24%), suggesting that skunks reduced their consumption of eggs when provided with a food supplement. In 1994, habitat conditions were optimal, and ducks nested persistently into the summer when nest success rates of food-provisioned areas and control areas differed by only 5 percentage points. That year American badgers (Taxidea taxus) and Franklin's ground squirrels (Spermophilus franklinii) apparently compensated for reduced depredation by skunks. Thus, although skunks and other mammalian predators seem to have responded positively to food provisioning, nest depredations overall did not change. Provision of supplemental food apparently has limited value for managing depredation of upland duck nests in the Prairie Pothole Region where predator communities are complex.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS1998

Winter foraging ecology of bald eagles on a regulated river in southwest Idaho

We studied Bald Eagle foraging ecology on the South Fork Boise River,Idaho, during the winters of 1990-92. We compared habitat variables at 29 foraging sites, 94 perch sites, and 131 random sites.Habitat variables included river habitat (pool, riffle, run), distance to the nearest change in river habitat, distance to nearest available perch, number and species of surrounding perches, and average river depth and flow. Eagles foraged more at pools than expected, and closer( (15 m) to changes in river habitat than expected. Where eagles foraged at riffles, those riffles were slower than riffles where they perched or riffles that were available at random. Where eagles foraged at runs, those runs were shallower than runs at either perch or random sites. Eagles perched less at riffles and more at sites where trees were available than expected. Changes in river habitat represent habitat edges where river depth and flow change, making fish more vulnerable to eagle predation. Fish are more susceptible to predation at shallower river depths and slower flows. Slower river flows may be related to decreased surface turbulence, which also increases vulnerability of fish to aerial predation.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS1975

Changes in the lake trout population of southern Lake Superior in relation to the fishery, the sea lamprey, and stocking, 1950-70

Commercial catch and effort statistics for 1929-70, samples of commercial catches in 1959-62, and records of examinations of all lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) taken commercially in inshore waters of Michigan and Wisconsin in 1962-70 were the basis for descriptions of changes in the population in 1929-70. Abundance fluctuated cyclically and gradually downward in 1929-49, whereas fishing intensity tended to increase during the same period. In 1950-52, a change from cotton to nylon twine in gillnets raised effective fishing effort to 305% of the 1929-43 average in Michigan waters and to 228% in Wisconsin waters; production held near average. Abundance fell to 18% of average in Michigan in 1953-61 and to 25% of average in Wisconsin in 1956-61; in the same periods, production fell to 11% of average in Michigan and to 19% in Wisconsin. In 1962-70 abundance rose to 160% in Michigan and 246% in Wisconsin while production and fishing intensity were held low (3-14%) by regulation. Changes in abundance of lake trout were attributable to a sequence of developments in successive series of years; intensive fishing in the early 1950's; severe sea lamprey predation in the late 1950's; an 85% reduction in abundance of sea lampreys in mid 1961; and the combination of sea lamprey control, intensive stocking of yearling lake trout, and restrictions on fishing in 1962-70. A decline in average size of lake trout and the near elimination of spawning stocks in 1953-61 curtailed recruitment of native lake trout in the mid 1960's. Stocking of fin-clipped lake trout replaced natural reproduction in the early 1960's. In 1965-70, the lake trout population was composed mainly of hatchery-reared fish. Natural reproduction was reestablished on one major spawning shoal in Wisconsin in 1965, but in 1970 only 10% of the legal (17-inch and longer) and 17% of the undersize lake trout in Wisconsin were native fish. Reduction of sea lamprey abundance resulted in an immediate increase in survival and abundance of lake trout, especially of the larger sizes. As abundance of lake trout progressively increased in 1962-70, survival of the smaller legal-size lake trout increased, probably due to reduction of the predator-prey ratio and an increase in availability of larger lake trout preferred by sea lampreys. Abundance of spawning-size lake trout was limited by high natural mortality in 1965-70. Circumstantial evidence suggested that sea lamprey predation contributed a major part of the high natural mortality.

Technical Report↗

USGS2005

A synthesis of ecological and fish-community changes in Lake Ontario, 1970-2000

We assessed stressors associated with ecological and fishcommunity changes in Lake Ontario since 1970, when the first symposium on Salmonid Communities in Oligotrophic Lakes (SCOL I) was held (J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 29: 613-616). Phosphorus controls implemented in the early 1970s were undeniably successful; lower food-web studies showed declines in algal abundance and epilimnetic zooplankton production and a shift in pelagic primary productivity toward smaller organisms. Stressors on the fish community prior to 1970 such as exploitation, sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) predation, and effects of nuisance populations of alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) were largely ameliorated by the 1990s. The alewife became a pivotal species supporting a multi-million-dollar salmonid sport fishery, but alewife-induced thiamine deficiency continued to hamper restoration and sustainability of native lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ). Expanding salmonine populations dependent on alewife raised concerns about predator demand and prey supply, leading to reductions in salmonine stocking in the early 1990s. Relaxation of the predation impact by alewives and their shift to deeper water allowed recovery of native fishes such as threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and emerald shiner ( Notropis atherinoides ). The return of the Lake Ontario ecosystem to historical conditions has been impeded by unplanned introductions. Establishment of Dreissena spp. led to increased water clarity and increased vectoring of lower trophic-level production to benthic habitats and contributed to the collapse of Diporeia spp. populations, behavioral modifications of key fish species, and the decline of native lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis ). Despite reduced productivity, exotic-species introductions, and changes in the fish community, offshore Mysis relicta populations remained relatively stable. The effects of climate and climate change on the population abundance and dynamics of Lake Ontario fish were unknown at the time of SCOL I, but a temperature-time series begun in the late 1950s in the Kingston Basin has since provided evidence of climate warming and associated fish-community changes. We should expect ecological surprises in the coming decades that will challenge scientists and fishery managers especially as they face new exotic species, climate warming, and escalating stakeholder demands on the resource. Continuous long-term ecological studies were critical for interpreting changes in Lake Ontario's fish community over the past three decades and will be essential in the future for both scientific understanding and management of the fishery.

Technical Report↗

USGS2005

Management and protection protocols for nesting sea turtles on Cape Hatteras National Seashore, North Carolina

Executive Summary 1. The southeast U.S. population of the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) has increased since the species was listed as federally threatened in 1978. Since standardized monitoring began in North Carolina in 1995, the number of nests at Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) fluctuated from year to year, and was lowest in 1996 and 1997 (39 nests) and highest in 2003 (101 nests). Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) have nested in small numbers at CAHA, sporadically over time. 2. Hatching success of sea turtle nests typically approaches 80%. At CAHA hatching success from 1999-2003 was low when hurricanes hit during the nesting season (30%-38%), and ranged from 52%-70% otherwise. Hatching success at CAHA is usually correlated with hatching success in the surrounding subpopulation (north Florida to North Carolina). 3. Inclement weather, predation, and human recreation can negatively impact nesting rate and hatching success. 4. Currently there is little protection from recreation at CAHA for nesting females and nests that have not been found by monitors. We propose three management options to provide such protection, and to increase protection for known nests and hatchlings. We propose an adaptive management framework for assessing the effectiveness of these management options in improving sea turtle nesting rate and nest and hatchling survival. 5. We recommend continued efforts to trap and remove mammalian predators from all sea turtle habitat. We further recommend intensive monitoring and surveillance of protected areas to determine the extent and timing of threats to nests and broods, including nest overwash, predation, and disturbance or vandalism by humans. 6. Continue to relocate nests and assist stranded turtles according to North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission guidelines. 7. Artificial light sources pose a serious threat to sea turtles in some parts of CAHA, which must be remedied immediately. We recommend that CAHA enact turtle-friendly lighting regulations and work with the communities within its borders to reduce light pollution and to eliminate artificial light sources that are directly visible from sea turtle nesting areas. 8. We recommend increased education and outreach to CAHA visitors, including requiring participation in an educational program before being granted nighttime beach access. The long-term success of sea turtle recovery will depend on public cooperation and positive public attitudes toward sea turtles and turtle management actions.

Book↗

USGS1992

Constraints on productivity of wild Nene or Hawaiian geese Branta sandvicensis

I investigated constraints on the productivity of wild Nene on Hawaii and Maui during 1978-81. These populations were composed largely of captive-reared birds. Recruitment of young was low. Of 140 breeding attempts, 36% resulted in successful nests and 7% produced fledglings. Annual productivity was limited because: 1) relatively few available pairs attempted to breed (58% on Hawaii; 46% on Maui), 2) average rate of nest success was low (44%), and 3) gosling survival was low <39%). Low incidence of nesting suggests that many females could not accumulate sufficient body reserves for egg-laying and incubation due to poor foraging conditions or poorly developed foraging skills. Nest failure was high due to predation on eggs and incubating females by the introduced mongoose. Gosling mortality was high because of poor foraging conditions near many nests, forcing broods to travel over rugged, volcanic terrain to distant rearing areas. In addition, some goslings were killed by predators. Nene populations would benefit most from improved foraging opportunities for adult females and goslings and from reduced predator populations.

Wildfowl↗

USGS1998

The seventy-second Christmas bird count. 302. Southern Dorchester County, Md

We located 511 Acadian Flycatcher (Empidonax virescens) nests in bottomland hardwood forest of eastern Arkansas. Microhabitat characteristics were measured and their relationship with nest success evaluated. Fifty-two percent of all nesting attempts resulted in predation. Attributes of nest placement were similar between successful and unsuccessful nests, although successful nests were placed higher. Similarly, nonparasitized nests were typically higher than parasitized nests. Nests initiated late in the breeding season were placed in larger trees with higher canopy bases resulting in increased vegetation around the nest. Fifteen different tree species were used for nesting. Acadian Flycatchers chose nest trees in a nonrandom fashion, selecting Nuttall oak (Quercus nuttallii) and possumhaw (Ilex decidua) in greater proportions than their availability. However, there was no relationship between tree species used for nesting and nest success. Nest height was positively correlated with concealment at the nest site, supporting the predator-avoidance theory. No other attribute of nest placement differentiated successful nest sites, suggesting that nest predation is likely a function of random events in space and time.

Condor↗

USGS1998

Breeding biology of Acadian flycatchers in a bottomland hardwood forest

From 1993-1995, we located and monitored 601 Acadian Flycatcher (Empidonax virescens) nests in a large contiguous tract of bottomland hardwood forest on the White River National Wildlife Refuge, Arkansas. Annual reproductive success was significantly different among years; ranging from 10-25% (Mayfield estimate) over the three years of the study. There was no significant difference in nest success among study plots, with nesting success showing a trend of increasing late in the breeding season. Clutch size for non-parasitized nests averaged 2.9 ? 0.02 (SE) eggs with a mode of 3. Rates of Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism were low (21%), accounting for 7% of all nest failures. However, parasitism by cowbirds resulted in a reduction of clutch size for nests initiated early (i.e., first nests and replacements) in the breeding season. Predation was the leading cause of nest failures, accounting for 75% of all failures. Snakes and avian predators were thought to be the leading cause of nest failures. Although additional factors must be investigated, preliminary results indicate that nest predation is a major influence on this population, despite the size of the forest tract.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

USGS1999

Contribution of research to management and recovery of the roseate tern: review of a twelve-year project

The Northwest Atlantic population of the Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) is largely confined to a small breeding area along the northeast coast of the USA between 40? and 42?N. This population was listed as endangered in the USA in 1987 because it was dangerously concentrated into a few breeding sites (85% on two islands in the 1980s). The nesting population in the area from Long Island, New York to Cape Cod, Massachusetts has been studied intensively since 1987, in conjunction with a program of management of the breeding colonies. This paper summarizes the results of the research program and discusses the extent to which it has contributed to effective management. The regional population now numbers about 4,000 breeding pairs and has been increasing slowly since 1987, except between 1991 and 1992 when it declined by about 17%. This decline was probably caused by Hurricane `Bob' in August 1991. Roseate Terns have specialized foraging habits and are concentrated into a small number of foraging areas near the nesting colonies. The historically important breeding sites were taken over by large gulls between 1930 and 1972. Many of the terns moved to less suitable sites near the mainland, where they are subject to predation by mainland-based predators. Despite this, Roseate Terns breed with high success at many sites. The sex-ratio is skewed towards females; about 12% of nests are attended by female-female pairs. The annual adult survival rate (0.83) is unusually low for a seabird. Most mortality occurs away from the breeding grounds, but the winter quarters remained unknown until one roost site was found in Brazil in 1995-1997. A major management goal has been to restore former colony-sites by eliminating nesting gulls, but the success of some of these projects has been questionable because they may have attracted birds to sites with higher levels of predation. Although the research has yielded important information about the biology and demography of the species, it has taken longer than expected to obtain and analyze data from multiple sites on this long-lived species. Most work has been carried out at breeding sites: critical studies on feeding ecology and winter ecology have been hampered by insufficient funding and the paucity of self-motivated biologists. Hence, the program has not yet provided all the keys to restoring the population.

Waterbirds↗

USGS1998

The seventy-second Christmas bird count. 302. Southern Dorchester County, Md

Condor↗

USGS1994

Decline in a population of spectacled eiders nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

The number of spectacled eiders nesting on two study areas near the Kashunuk River, on the central Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, Alaska, declined by over 75% in the last 20 years. Nesting densities have remained low, but have not significantly declined since 1985. There has been no decrease in the reproductive effort of individual females as indicated by average clutch sizes. There has been a significant decline in the proportion of nests located on islands on one of the two study areas. Nesting success declined significantly during the 1970's. Success was not monitored in recent years, but has likely been low, based on the poor nesting success and declining numbers of cackling Canada geese and black brant nesting on the area. Nest predation by arctic foxes severely limited the productivity of cackling Canada geese, and foxes were likely the major predators of eider nests. Persistent high predation rates may lead to local extirpation in highly philopatric species such as eiders.

Northwestern Naturalist↗

USGS2005

Biology and conservation of Xantus's Murrelet: Discovery, taxonomy and distribution

The biology of Xantus's Murrelets Synthliboramphus hypoleucus is similar in many respects to better-studied Ancient Murrelets S. antiquus, especially regarding morphology and the species' precocial mode of post-hatching development. It nests mainly in rock crevices but also under shrubs on islands in southern California, United States, and northwestern Baja California, Mexico (27 o N to 34 o N). The species was discovered in 1859 by Janos Xantus. Two subspecies ( S. h. hypoleucus and S. h. scrippsi ) are recognized that show limited evidence of interbreeding. At sea, closely related Craveri's Murrelets S. craveri co-occur with Xantus's Murrelets off California and western Baja California during half the year, but the former species has a discrete breeding range in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Breeding was documented at 13 island groups between 1863 and 1976. Post-breeding dispersal as far north as central British Columbia, Canada (c. 52 o N) was observed in the 1940s to 1960s. A few Xantus's Murrelets disperse south of breeding colonies to Magdalena Bay, Baja California (c. 24 o N). The southernmost record is the type specimen collected by Xantus near Cabo San Lucas, Baja California (c. 23 o N). Chief threats to this species include introduced mammalian predators on breeding islands, heightened predation by natural predators in human-modified island habitats, and oil pollution. In January 2005, a Pacific Seabird Group special symposium, "Biology and conservation of the Xantus's Murrelet," highlighted conservation concerns and promoted publication of recent studies of this little-known alcid, with nine symposium papers published in this issue of Marine Ornithology. Much of what we know about Xantus's Murrelets has been learned in recent years, and many aspects of biology remain to be described.

Marine Ornithology: Journal of Seabird Research an↗

USGS2013

Wetland dynamics influence mid-continent duck recruitment

Recruitment is a key factor influencing duck population dynamics. Understanding what regulates recruitment of ducks is a prerequisite to informed habitat and harvest management. Quantity of May ponds (MP) has been linked to recruitment and population size (Kaminski and Gluesing 1987, Raveling and Heitmeyer 1989). However, wetland productivity (quality) is driven by inter-annual hydrological fluctuations. Periodic drying of wetlands due to wet-dry climate cycles releases nutrients and increases invertebrate populations when wet conditions return (Euliss et al. 1999). Wetlands may also become wet or dry within a breeding season. Accordingly, inter-annual and intra-seasonal hydrologic variation potentially influence duck recruitment. Here, we examined influences of wetland quantity, quality, and intra-seasonal dynamics on recruitment of ducks. We indexed duck recruitment by vulnerability-corrected age ratios (juveniles/adult females) for mid-continent Gadwall (Anas strepera). We chose Gadwall because the majority of the continental population breeds in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), where annual estimates of MP exist since 1974. We indexed wetland quality by calculating change in MP (?MP) over the past two years (?MP = 0.6[MPt – MPt-1] + 0.4[MPt – MPt-2]). We indexed intra-seasonal change in number of ponds by dividing the PPR mean standardized precipitation index for July by MP (hereafter summer index). MP and ?MP were positively correlated (r = 0.65); therefore, we calculated residual ?MP (?MPr) with a simple linear regression using MP, creating orthogonal variables. Finally, we conducted a multiple regression to examine how MP, ?MPr, and summer index explained variation in recruitment of Gadwall from 1976–2010. Our model explained 67% of the variation in mid-continent Gadwall recruitment and all three hydrologic indices were positively correlated with recruitment (Figure 1). Type II semi-partial R2 estimates indicated that MP accounted for 41%, ?MPr accounted for an additional 22%, and summer index accounted for the remaining 4% of the variation in recruitment. Our results are consistent with previous findings that quantity of MP was important for explaining variation in recruitment of ducks. However, our results also indicated that considering hydrologic dynamics was important for explaining recruitment. Additionally, the index for retention of MP within breeding year also was important, despite its coarse resolution as an average of precipitation events that can vary greatly spatially and in intensity within the PPR. Our results support the idea that wetland ecosystems in the PPR are ultimately regulated through bottom-up process driven by inter- and intra-annual hydrological dynamics. However from the ducks' perspective, hydrological dynamics could influence recruitment proximately through both bottom-up and top-down processes. Specifically, hydrological fluctuations may influence predator populations, prey switching by predators, or duckling vulnerability to predators (Cox et al. 1998). We will propose a conceptual model for understanding the potential role of bottom-up and top-down regulation of duck recruitment based on different hydrological contexts. Clearly, a better understanding of ultimate and proximate factors regulating duck recruitment would improve the effectiveness and efficiency of habitat conservation for ducks. Lastly, our findings could be used to improve models that predict fall flights for the purposes of informing harvest regulations.

Conference Paper↗