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USGS2016

A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2015

Mesozoic magmatism and timing of epigenetic Pb-Zn-Ag mineralization in the western Fortymile mining district, east-central Alaska: Zircon U-Pb geochronology, whole-rock geochemistry, and Pb isotopes

The Mesozoic magmatic history of the North American margin records the evolution from a more segmented assemblage of parautochthonous and allochthonous terranes to the more cohesive northern Cordilleran orogenic belt. We characterize the setting of magmatism, tectonism, and epigenetic mineralization in the western Fortymile mining district, east-central Alaska, where parautochthonous and allochthonous Paleozoic tectonic assemblages are juxtaposed, using sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U-Pb zircon geochronology, whole-rock geochemistry, and feldspar Pb isotopes of Mesozoic intrusions and spatially associated mineral prospects. New SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages and published U-Pb and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages indicate four episodes of plutonism in the western Fortymile district: Late Triassic (216-208 Ma), Early Jurassic (199-181 Ma), mid-Cretaceous (112-94 Ma), and Late Cretaceous (70-66 Ma). All age groups have calc-alkalic arc compositions that became more evolved through time. Pb isotope compositions of feldspars from Late Triassic, Early Jurassic, and Late Cretaceous igneous rocks similarly became more radiogenic with time and are consistent with the magmas being mantle derived but extensively contaminated by upper crustal components with evolving Pb isotopic compositions. Feldspar Pb isotopes from mid-Cretaceous rocks have isotopic ratios that indicate magma derivation from upper crustal sources, probably thickened mid-Paleozoic basement. The origin of the mantle component in Late Cretaceous granitoids suggested by Pb isotopic ratios is uncertain, but we propose that it reflects asthenospheric upwelling following slab breakoff and sinking of an inactive inner subduction zone that delivered the previously accreted Wrangellia composite terrane to the North American continental margin, after the outer Farallon subduction zone was established. Epigenetic Pb-Zn-Ag ± Cu prospects in the western Fortymile district are spatially associated with splays of the northeast-trending Kechumstuk sinistral-normal fault zone and with ca. 68-66 Ma felsic intrusions and dikes. The similarity between Pb isotope compositions of feldspars from the Late Cretaceous igneous bodies and sulfides from the epithermal prospects suggests a Late Cretaceous age for most of the mineralization. Fluid flow along the faults undoubtedly played a major role in mineralization. We interpret displacement on the northeast-trending faults to be a far-field effect of dextral translation along Late Cretaceous plate-scale boundaries and faults that were roughly parallel to the subsequently developed Denali and Tintina fault systems, which currently bound the region.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (&le; 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Nine-banded armadillo (Dasyrus novemcinctus) activity patterns are influenced by human activity

As the human footprint upon the landscape expands, wildlife seeking to avoid human contact are losing the option of altering their spatial distribution and instead are shifting their daily activity patterns to be active at different times than humans. In this study, we used game cameras to evaluate how human development and activity were related to the daily activity patterns of the nine-banded armadillo ( Dasypus novemcinctus) along an urban to rural gradient in Arkansas, USA during the winter of 2020–2021. We found that armadillos had substantial behavioral plasticity in regard to the timing of their activity patterns; >95% of armadillo activity was nocturnal at six of the study sites, whereas between 30% and 60% of activity occurred during the day at three other sites. The likelihood of diurnal armadillo activity was best explained by the distance to downtown Fayetteville (the nearest population center) and estimated ambient sound level (both indices of human activity) with armadillos being most active during the day at quiet sites far from Fayetteville. Furthermore, armadillo activity occurred later during the night period (minutes after sunset) at sites near downtown and with higher anthropogenic sound. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the observed activity shift may be in response to not only human activity but also the presence of domestic dogs. Our results provide further evidence that human activity has subtle nonlethal impacts on even common, widespread wildlife species. Because armadillos have low body temperatures and basal metabolism, being active during cold winter nights likely has measurable fitness costs. Nature reserves near human population centers may not serve as safe harbors for wildlife as we intend, and managers could benefit from considering these nonlethal responses in how they manage recreation and visitation in these natural areas.

Arkansas↗
USGS2025

Development of PCR blocking primers enabling DNA metabarcoding analysis of dietary composition in hematophagous sea lamprey

Conventional dietary assessments are challenging in hematophagous species, particularly in sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ). However, recent technological developments and molecular approaches have provided an attractive alternative through the use of DNA metabarcoding. While DNA metabarcoding has been used for dietary analyses in numerous species, including lampreys, applications of universal primers that detect a diverse set of prey items can be limited by the amplification of predator DNA. In this study, we designed and tested eight blocking primers designed to suppress the amplification of sea lamprey DNA with vertebrate-universal primers targeting the mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene. This approach allowed for the use of a single marker to amplify a taxonomically diverse suite of host species, in contrast to previous studies that used multiple taxon-specific primer pairs (e.g., Salmonidae, Cyprinidae, and Catostomidae). Candidate blocking primers evaluated in this study differed in base pair length, end sequence modification, and purification method. Samples with different sea lamprey-to-host DNA ratios were subjected to multiple detection methods including gel electrophoresis, quantitative PCR, and DNA metabarcoding to assess the ability of each blocking primer to selectively suppress amplification of the sea lamprey 12S gene region. All blocking primers tested performed well and demonstrated high effectiveness, suppressing sea lamprey reads by > 99.9% in mock communities and improving host DNA sequence recovery across various sample types, including wild-caught lamprey. Results show that the blocking primers evaluated can facilitate molecular diet analysis in sea lamprey, allowing the amplification of a taxonomically diverse range of host fish species with universal primers.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2022

Foraging habitat selection of shrubland bird community in tropical dry forest

Habitat loss due to increasing anthropogenic disturbance is the major driver for bird population declines across the globe. Within the Eastern Ghats of India, shrubland bird communities are threatened by shrinking of suitable habitats due to increased anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. The development of an effective habitat management strategy is hampered by the absence of data for this bird community. To address this knowledge gap, we examined foraging sites for 14 shrubland bird species, including three declining species, in three study areas representing the shrubland type of forest community in the Eastern Ghats. We recorded microhabitat features within an 11 m radius of observed foraging points and compared these data with similar data from random plots. We used chi-square to test the association between plant species and bird species for sites where they were observed foraging. We observed significant differences between foraging sites of all the study species and random plots, thus indicating selection for foraging habitat. Using linear discriminant analysis, we found that the microhabitat features important for the bird species were shrub density, vegetational height, vertical foliage stratification, grass height, and percent rock cover. Our results show that diet guild and foraging strata influence the foraging microhabitat selection of a species (e.g., ground-foraging species differed significantly from other species). Except for two species, all focal birds were associated with at least one plant species. The plant-bird association was based on foraging, structural, or behavioral preferences. Several key factors affecting foraging habitat such as shrub density can be actively managed at the local scale. Strategic and selective harvesting of forest products and a spatially and temporally controlled livestock grazing regime may allow regeneration of scrubland and create conditions favorable to birds.

Andhra Pradesh↗
USGS2022

Know what you don't know: Embracing state uncertainty in disease-structured multistate models

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are broadly applicable hierarchical models that derive their utility from separating state processes from observation processes yielding the data. Multistate models such as mark–recapture and dynamic multistate occupancy models are HMMs frequently used in ecology. In their early formulations, states, such as pathogen infection status, were assumed to be perfectly observed without ambiguity. However, state uncertainty is a pervasive feature of many ecological studies, and multievent models were developed to explicitly account for it. We developed a novel extended multievent mark–recapture model that incorporates state uncertainty at multiple levels of detection. Using a disease-structured example, both false negative and false positive state assignment errors are modelled at two levels of state assignment—the pathogen sampling process and the diagnostic process that samples are subjected to. We additionally describe methods to jointly model infection intensity to integrate heterogeneity in ecological parameters, such as mortality and infection dynamics, and the pathogen detection processes. We provide code to simulate and analyse datasets with various underlying ecological processes and fit our model to a mark–recapture dataset of Mixophyes fleayi (Fleay's barred frog) infected with the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis , Bd ). In our case study, we found evidence for various state assignment errors: the sampling protocol performed poorly in detecting Bd , pathogen detection was highly dependent on infection intensity and false positives were non-negligible. Incorporating state uncertainty yielded significantly higher estimates of infection prevalence and 4–5 times lower rates of infection state transitions compared to those obtained from a traditional multistate model. Our results highlight that incorporating state assignment errors improves inference on the ecological process, especially when sensitivity and specificity of the state assignment processes are low. The general model structure can be applied to other HMMs, providing a foundation for modelling state uncertainty in related models. For disease-structured multistate models, we recommend conducting robust design surveys and collecting samples during each capture event to facilitate incorporating pathogen detection errors.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2007

Heavy-mineral provenance in an estuarine environment, Willapa Bay, Washington, USA: palaeogeographic implications and estuarine evolution

Modern sediments from representative localities in Willapa Bay, Washington, comprise two principal heavy-mineral suites. One contains approximately equivalent amounts of hornblende, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene; this is derived from the Columbia River, which discharges into the Pacific Ocean a short distance south of the bay. The other suite, dominated by clinopyroxene, is restricted to sands of rivers flowing into the bay from the east. The heavy-mineral distributions within the bay suggest that sand discharged from the Columbia River, borne north by longshore transport and carried into the bay by tidal currents, accounts for nearly all of the sand within the interior of Willapa Bay today. Pleistocene deposits on the east side of the bay contain three heavy-mineral assemblages, two of which are identical to the modern assemblages described above. These assemblages reflect the relative influence of tidal and fluvial processes on the Late Pleistocene deposits (100,000–200,000 BP. Amino acid racemization in Quaternary shell deposits at Willapa Bay, Washington. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 43, 1505–1520). They are also consistent with those processes inferred on the basis of sedimentary structures and stratigraphic relations in about two-thirds of the samples examined. Anomalies can be explained by recycling of sand from older deposits. The persistence of the two heavy-mineral suites suggests that the pattern of estuarine sedimentation in Late Pleistocene deposits closely resembled that of the modern bay. The third heavy-mineral suite is enriched in epidote and occurs in a few older Pleistocene units. On the north side of the bay, the association of this suite with southwest-directed foresets in cross-bedded gravel indicates derivation from the northeast, perhaps from an area of glacial outwash. The presence of this suite in ancient estuarine sands exposed on the northeast side of the bay suggests that input from this northerly source may have intermittently dominated Willapa Bay deposition in the past.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Modeling ecological minimum requirements for distribution of greater sage-grouse leks: implications for population connectivity across their western range, U.S.A.

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (Bonaparte) currently occupy approximately half of their historical distribution across western North America. Sage-grouse are a candidate for endangered species listing due to habitat and population fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulation to control development in critical areas. Conservation planning would benefit from accurate maps delineating required habitats and movement corridors. However, developing a species distribution model that incorporates the diversity of habitats used by sage-grouse across their widespread distribution has statistical and logistical challenges. We first identified the ecological minimums limiting sage-grouse, mapped similarity to the multivariate set of minimums, and delineated connectivity across a 920,000 km 2 region. We partitioned a Mahalanobis D 2 model of habitat use into k separate additive components each representing independent combinations of species–habitat relationships to identify the ecological minimums required by sage-grouse. We constructed the model from abiotic, land cover, and anthropogenic variables measured at leks (breeding) and surrounding areas within 5 km. We evaluated model partitions using a random subset of leks and historic locations and selected D 2 (k = 10) for mapping a habitat similarity index (HSI). Finally, we delineated connectivity by converting the mapped HSI to a resistance surface. Sage-grouse required sagebrush-dominated landscapes containing minimal levels of human land use. Sage-grouse used relatively arid regions characterized by shallow slopes, even terrain, and low amounts of forest, grassland, and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Most populations were interconnected although several outlying populations were isolated because of distance or lack of habitat corridors for exchange. Land management agencies currently are revising land-use plans and designating critical habitat to conserve sage-grouse and avoid endangered species listing. Our results identifying attributes important for delineating habitats or modeling connectivity will facilitate conservation and management of landscapes important for supporting current and future sage-grouse populations.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2015

Performance of species occurrence estimators when basic assumptions are not met: a test using field data where true occupancy status is known

Populations are rarely censused. Instead, observations are subject to incomplete detection, misclassification and detection heterogeneity that result from human and environmental constraints. Though numerous methods have been developed to deal with observational uncertainty, validation under field conditions is rare because truth is rarely known in these cases. We present the most comprehensive test of occupancy estimation methods to date, using more than 33 000 auditory call observations collected under standard field conditions and where the true occupancy status of sites was known. Basic occupancy estimation approaches were biased when two key assumptions were not met: that no false positives occur and that no unexplained heterogeneity in detection parameters occurs. The greatest bias occurred for dynamic parameters (i.e. local colonization and extinction), and in many cases, the degree of inaccuracy would render results largely useless. We examined three approaches to increase adherence or relax these assumptions: modifying the sampling design, employing estimators that account for false-positive detections and using covariates to account for site-level heterogeneity in both false-negative and false-positive detection probabilities. We demonstrate that bias can be substantially reduced by modifications to sampling methods and by using estimators that simultaneously account for false-positive detections and site-level covariates to explain heterogeneity. Our results demonstrate that even small probabilities of misidentification and among-site detection heterogeneity can have severe effects on estimator reliability if ignored. We challenge researchers to place greater attention on both heterogeneity and false positives when designing and analysing occupancy studies. We provide 9 specific recommendations for the design, implementation and analysis of occupancy studies to better meet this challenge.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Effects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental-scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model

We developed a continental energetics-based model of daily mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) movement during the non-breeding period (September to May) to predict year-specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating at the population level and is parameterized through a review of literature. We applied the model to 62 years of daily weather data for the non-breeding period. The average proportion of available habitat decreased as weather severity increased, with mortality decreasing as the proportion of available habitat increased. The most commonly used locations during the course of the non-breeding period were generally consistent across years, with the most inter-annual variation present in the overwintering area. Our model revealed that the distribution of mallards on the landscape changed more dramatically when the variation in daily available habitat was greater. The main routes for avian migration in North America were predicted by our simulations: the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific flyways. Our model predicted an average of 77.4% survivorship for the non-breeding period across all years (range = 76.4%–78.4%), with lowest survivorship during autumn (90.5 ± 1.4%), intermediate survivorship in winter (91.8 ± 0.7%), and greatest survivorship in spring (93.6 ± 1.1%). We provide the parameters necessary for exploration within and among other taxa to leverage the generalizability of this migration model to a broader expanse of bird species, and across a range of climate change and land use/land cover change scenarios.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

A comparative analysis of common methods to identify waterbird hotspots

1. Hotspot analysis is a commonly used method in ecology and conservation to identify areas of high biodiversity or conservation concern. However, delineating and mapping hotspots is subjective and various approaches can lead to different conclusions with regard to the classification of particular areas as hotspots, complicating long-term conservation planning and implementation efforts. 2. We present a comparative analysis of recent approaches for identifying waterbird hotspots, with the goal of developing insights about the appropriate use of these methods. We selected four commonly used measures to identify persistent areas of high use: kernel density estimation, Getis-Ord Gi*, hotspot persistence, and hotspots conditional on presence, which represent the range of quantitative hotspot estimation approaches used in waterbird analyses. We applied each of the methods to aerial survey waterbird count data collected in the Great Lakes from 2012-2014 using a 5 km2 grid. For each approach, we identified areas of high use for seven species/species groups and then compared the results across all methods. 3. Our results indicate that formal hotspot analysis frameworks do not always lead to the same conclusions. The kernel density and Getis-Ord Gi* methods yielded the most similar results across all species analyzed. We found that these two models can differ substantially from the hotspot persistence and hotspots conditional on presence estimation approaches, which were not consistently similar to one another. The hotspot persistence approach differed most significantly from the other methods but is the only method to explicitly account for temporal variation. 4. We recommend considering the ecological question and scale of any conservation or management activities prior to designing survey methodologies. Deciding the appropriate definition and scale for analysis is critical for interpretation of hotspot analysis results. Combining methods using an integrative approach, either within a single analysis or post-hoc, could lead to greater consistency in the identification of waterbird hotspots.

Lake Erie, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan↗
USGS2020

Scenarios for valuing sample information in natural resources

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in natural resource systems, science and management. Sample data are obtained in order to reduce uncertainty, thereby increasing knowledge and improving resource management, but sampling always comes at a cost of some sort. Is that cost worthwhile? Analysis of the value of sample information ( VSI ) addresses this question. In this paper we develop the valuation of sample information in terms of five elements: (a) a system whose attributes are the focus of analysis; (b) a range of management actions that affect the system's status; (c) uncertainty about system status or structure, as characterized by initial (prior) probabilities of possible system states or structures; (d) an experiment or other information source that produces new data points and updated (posterior) probabilities; and (e) a value measure that is a function of the management action taken, conditional on either the system state or structure. We describe five scenarios for analysing the VSI under uncertainty about system structure and state. Scenarios 1–3 comprise analyses of conditional, expected and optimal expected values of sample information. They focus primarily on choice of management adaptations with new information. Scenarios 4 and 5 involve pre-selected management actions, and are useful for comparing designs of data collection rather than for choosing a management action. These last scenarios expand the framework for VSI to include actions that have been selected independently of the updating of uncertainty. We discuss other extensions of VSI analysis, which include spatial applications, hybrid scenarios, applications involving dynamic systems, and a focus on costs rather than net benefits. Value of sample information analysis holds promise in emerging areas of ecology such as ecological forecasting and the use of remote sensing in conservation, where potential new data from models and satellites can be evaluated in advance, thereby allowing more efficient prioritization of scientific efforts. More generally, VSI can contribute to better ecological understanding and more effective management in a wide range of ecological situations.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2023

The context dependency of fish-habitat associations in separated karst ecoregions

Fish populations may be isolated via natural conditions in geographically separated ecoregions. Although reconnecting these populations is not a management goal, we need to understand how these populations persist across landscapes to develop meaningful conservation actions, particularly for species occupying sensitive karst ecosystems. Our study objective was to determine the physicochemical factors related to the occurrence of four spring-associated fishes. Arbuckle Uplift and Ozark Highlands ecoregions, USA. We used a hierarchical approach to identify habitat relationships at multiple spatial scales. We collected detection data using snorkeling and seining. We examined the physicochemical relationships related to the detection and occurrence of four spring-associated fishes using occupancy modeling in a Bayesian framework. We found physicochemical relationships that differed and were similar between ecoregions for several fishes. For three species, we found different water temperature relationships between ecoregions. Smallmouth bass were ubiquitous in their use of drainage areas in the Ozark Highlands but only associated with the lower network of the Arbuckle Uplift. There were several mirrored relationships between ecoregions, including an interaction between residual pool depth and water temperature, where sites with deeper pools were more likely to be occupied during warmer water temperatures. There were single-species occurrence relationships with percent vegetation and percent agriculture. Lastly, snorkeling was a more efficient sampling method compared to seining for all fishes. Our results indicate stream temperature mitigation may be possible via the maintenance of key channel morphologies, and we identify shared stressors between ecoregions. Channel mitigation to maintain reaches with deeper pools may be an important strategy for maintaining thermal refugia, particularly when considering climate change. Identifying the mechanistic underpinning of other multiscale ecological relationships would be helpful to discern if some of the different ecoregion relationships represent warning signals or interactions with unmeasured biotic or abiotic factors.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2021

Diet composition of the African manatee: Spatial and temporal variation within the Sanaga River Watershed, Cameroon

The present study aimed to investigate the diet of African manatees in Cameroon to better inform conservation decisions within protected areas. A large knowledge gap on diet and seasonal changes in forage availability limits the ability to develop informed local management plans for the African manatee in much of its range. This research took place in the Sanaga River Watershed, which includes two protected areas in the Littoral Region of Cameroon: the Douala-Edea National Park and the Lake Ossa Wildlife Reserve. We analyzed 113 manatee fecal samples and surveyed shoreline emergent and submerged vegetation within the Sanaga River Watershed. We used microhistological analyses to determine the relative contribution of each plant species to African manatee diets and compared across locations and across seasons (wet vs. dry season). We found that the shoreline vegetation is diverse with over 160 plant species, unevenly distributed across space and season, and dominated by emergent vegetation mostly represented by the antelope grass ( Echinochloa pyramidalis ). We recorded a total of 36 plant species from fecal samples with a spatial and temporal distribution mostly reflecting that of the corresponding shoreline vegetation. African manatees appear to be primarily opportunistically feeding on available vegetation across the seasons and habitat. This work documents the current, but changing, state of plant availability in the Sanaga River Watershed and reports the African manatee diet in Cameroon for the first time. This information can play a critical role in successfully managing the species and these protected areas. If we wish to protect the African manatee and the aquatic ecosystems within the Sanaga River Watershed, we must understand how forage availability changes over time, especially as its waters become nutrient enriched, eutrophic, and exposed to invasive species of plants in a changing world.

Douala-Edea National Park, Lake Ossa Wildlife Rese↗
USGS2015

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust decisions.

Florida↗
USGS2016

Immunoglobulin detection in wild birds: Effectiveness of three secondary anti-avian IgY antibodies in direct ELISAs in 41 avian species

1.Immunological reagents for wild, non-model species are limited or often non-existent for many species. 2. In this study, we compare the reactivity of a new anti-passerine IgY secondary antibody with existing secondary antibodies developed for use with birds. Samples from 41 species from the following six avian orders were analysed: Anseriformes (1 family, 1 species), Columbiformes (1 family, 2 species), Galliformes (1 family, 1 species), Passeriformes (16 families, 34 species), Piciformes (1 family, 2 species) and Suliformes (1 family, 1 species). Direct ELISAs were performed to detect total IgY using goat anti-passerine IgY, goat anti-chicken IgY or goat anti-bird IgY secondary antibodies. 3.The anti-passerine antibody exhibited significantly higher IgY reactivity compared to the anti-chicken and/or anti-bird antibodies in 80% of the passerine families tested. Birds in the order Piciformes (woodpeckers) and order Suliformes (cormorants) were poorly detected by all three secondary antibodies. A comparison of serum and plasma IgY levels was made within the same individuals for two passerine species (house finch and white-crowned sparrow), and serum exhibited significantly more IgY than the plasma for all three secondary antibodies. This result indicates that serum may be preferred to plasma when measuring total antibody levels in blood. 4.This study indicates that the anti-passerine IgY secondary antibody can effectively be used in immunological assays to detect passerine IgY for species in most passerine families and is preferred over anti-chicken and anti-bird secondary antibodies for the majority of passerine species. This anti-passerine antibody will allow for more accurate detection and quantification of IgY in more wild bird species than was possible with previously available secondary antibodies.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS1993

Earthquake locations determined by the Southern Alaska seismograph network for October 1971 through May 1989

This report describes the instrumentation and evolution of the U.S. Geological Survey’s regional seismograph network in southern Alaska, provides phase and hypocenter data for seismic events from October 1971 through May 1989, reviews the location methods used, and discusses the completeness of the catalog and the accuracy of the computed hypocenters. Included are arrival time data for explosions detonated under the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT) in 1984 and 1985. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated a regional network of seismographs in southern Alaska from 1971 to the mid 1990s. The principal purpose of this network was to record seismic data to be used to precisely locate earthquakes in the seismic zones of southern Alaska, delineate seismically active faults, assess seismic risks, document potential premonitory earthquake phenomena, investigate current tectonic deformation, and study the structure and physical properties of the crust and upper mantle. A task fundamental to all of these goals was the routine cataloging of parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network. The initial network of 10 stations, 7 around Cook Inlet and 3 near Valdez, was installed in 1971. In subsequent summers additions or modifications to the network were made. By the fall of 1973, 26 stations extended from western Cook Inlet to eastern Prince William Sound, and 4 stations were located to the east between Cordova and Yakutat. A year later 20 additional stations were installed. Thirteen of these were placed along the eastern Gulf of Alaska with support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment Program to investigate the seismicity of the outer continental shelf, a region of interest for oil exploration. Since then the region covered by the network remained relatively fixed while efforts were made to make the stations more reliable through improved electronic instrumentation and strengthened antenna systems. The majority of the stations installed since 1980 were operated only temporarily (from one to several years) for special studies in various areas within the network. Due to reduced funding, the network was trimmed substantially in the summer of 1985 with the closure of 15 stations, 13 of which were located in and around the Yakataga seismic gap. To further reduce costs, two telephone circuits were dropped and multiple radio relays were installed in their place. This economy reduced the reliability of these telemetry links. In addition, data collection from the areas around Cordova and Yakutat was compromised by the necessity of relying on triggered event recording using PC-based systems (Rogers, 1993) that were not fully developed and which proved to be less reliable than anticipated. The principal means of recording throughout the time period of this catalog was 20-channel oscillographs on 16-mm film (Teledyne Geotech Develocorder, Model RF400 and 4000D). Initially one Develocorder was operated at the USGS Alaskan headquarters in Anchorage, but in 1972 recording was shifted to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Palmer Observatory (currently the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center). The Develocorders were turned off at the end of May 1989, and after that time recording was done in digital format at the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska in Fairbanks (GIUA). Thus, this catalog covers the entire period of film recording.

Alaska↗