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USGS2016

Origin and dynamics of depositionary subduction margins

Here we propose a new framework for forearc evolution that focuses on the potential feedbacks between subduction tectonics, sedimentation, and geomorphology that take place during an extreme event of subduction erosion. These feedbacks can lead to the creation of a “depositionary forearc,” a forearc structure that extends the traditional division of forearcs into accretionary or erosive subduction margins by demonstrating a mode of rapid basin accretion during an erosive event at a subduction margin. A depositionary mode of forearc evolution occurs when terrigenous sediments are deposited directly on the forearc while it is being removed from below by subduction erosion. In the most extreme case, an entire forearc can be removed by a single subduction erosion event followed by depositionary replacement without involving transfer of sediments from the incoming plate. We need to further recognize that subduction forearcs are often shaped by interactions between slow, long-term processes, and sudden extreme events reflecting the sudden influences of large-scale morphological variations in the incoming plate. Both types of processes contribute to the large-scale architecture of the forearc, with extreme events associated with a replacive depositionary mode that rapidly creates sections of a typical forearc margin. The persistent upward diversion of the megathrust is likely to affect its geometry, frictional nature, and hydrogeology. Therefore, the stresses along the fault and individual earthquake rupture characteristics are also expected to be more variable in these erosive systems than in systems with long-lived megathrust surfaces.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗
USGS2017

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21 st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

California↗
USGS2017

Aftershocks driven by afterslip and fluid pressure sweeping through a fault-fracture mesh

A variety of physical mechanisms are thought to be responsible for the triggering and spatiotemporal evolution of aftershocks. Here we analyze a vigorous aftershock sequence and postseismic geodetic strain that occurred in the Yuha Desert following the 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. About 155,000 detected aftershocks occurred in a network of orthogonal faults and exhibit features of two distinct mechanisms for aftershock triggering. The earliest aftershocks were likely driven by afterslip that spread away from the main shock with the logarithm of time. A later pulse of aftershocks swept again across the Yuha Desert with square root time dependence and swarm-like behavior; together with local geological evidence for hydrothermalism, these features suggest that the events were driven by fluid diffusion. The observations illustrate how multiple driving mechanisms and the underlying fault structure jointly control the evolution of an aftershock sequence.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Persistent shoreline shape induced from offshore geologic framework: Effects of shoreface connected ridges

Mechanisms relating offshore geologic framework to shoreline evolution are determined through geologic investigations, oceanographic deployments, and numerical modeling. Analysis of shoreline positions from the past 50 years along Fire Island, New York, a 50 km long barrier island, demonstrates a persistent undulating shape along the western half of the island. The shelf offshore of these persistent undulations is characterized with shoreface-connected sand ridges (SFCR) of a similar alongshore length scale, leading to a hypothesis that the ridges control the shoreline shape through the modification of flow. To evaluate this, a hydrodynamic model was configured to start with the US East Coast and scale down to resolve the Fire Island nearshore. The model was validated using observations along western Fire Island and buoy data, and used to compute waves, currents and sediment fluxes. To isolate the influence of the SFCR on the generation of the persistent shoreline shape, simulations were performed with a linearized nearshore bathymetry to remove alongshore transport gradients associated with shoreline shape. The model accurately predicts the scale and variation of the alongshore transport that would generate the persistent shoreline undulations. In one location, however, the ridge crest connects to the nearshore and leads to an offshore-directed transport that produces a difference in the shoreline shape. This qualitatively supports the hypothesized effect of cross-shore fluxes on coastal evolution. Alongshore flows in the nearshore during a representative storm are driven by wave breaking, vortex force, advection and pressure gradient, all of which are affected by the SFCR.

New York↗
USGS2017

Can beaches survive climate change?

Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2014

Contrasting volcanism in Hawaiʻi and the Galápagos

The archipelagos of Hawai‘i and the Galápagos originated at mantle hotspots, yet the volcanoes that make up the island chains differ in most respects. Some of the most important differences include the dynamics of magma supply, characteristics of magma storage and transport, morphology, and compositional and structural evolution. Of particular significance in the Galápagos is the lack of well-developed rift zones, which may be related to higher rates of pre-eruptive inflation compared to Hawai‘i, and the absence of widespread flank instability—a common feature of Hawai‘i's volcanoes. The close proximity of the Galápagos to a mid-ocean-ridge system may account for many of the differences between Hawaiian and Galápagos volcanoes. The Galápagos archipelago is built on young, thin oceanic crust, which might allow for contemporaneous growth of numerous volcanoes, and its volcanoes are fed by a mix of plume and asthenospheric melt sources. Hawaiian volcanoes, in contrast, grew in the middle of the Pacific Plate on older, thicker crust, where localized changes in mantle and lithosphere structure and composition did not exert dominant control over volcano evolution.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

Bedform response to flow variability

Laboratory observations and computational results for the response of bedform fields to rapid variations in discharge are compared and discussed. The simple case considered here begins with a relatively low discharge over a flat bed on which bedforms are initiated, followed by a short high-flow period with double the original discharge, during which the morphology of the bedforms adjusts, followed in turn by a relatively long period of the original low discharge. For the grain size and hydraulic conditions selected, the Froude number remains subcritical during the experiment, and sediment moves predominantly as bedload. Observations show rapid development of quasi-two-dimensional bedforms during the initial period of low flow with increasing wavelength and height over the initial low-flow period. When the flow increases, the bedforms rapidly increase in wavelength and height, as expected from other empirical results. When the flow decreases back to the original discharge, the height of the bedforms quickly decreases in response, but the wavelength decreases much more slowly. Computational results using an unsteady two-dimensional flow model coupled to a disequilibrium bedload transport model for the same conditions simulate the formation and initial growth of the bedforms fairly accurately and also predict an increase in dimensions during the high-flow period. However, the computational model predicts a much slower rate of wavelength increase, and also performs less accurately during the final low-flow period, where the wavelength remains essentially constant, rather than decreasing. In addition, the numerical results show less variability in bedform wavelength and height than the measured values; the bedform shape is also somewhat different. Based on observations, these discrepancies may result from the simplified model for sediment particle step lengths used in the computational approach. Experiments show that the particle step length varies spatially and temporally over the bedforms during the evolution process. Assuming a constant value for the step length neglects the role of flow alterations in the bedload sediment-transport process, which appears to result in predicted bedform wavelength changes smaller than those observed. However, observations also suggest that three-dimensional effects play at least some role in the decrease of bedform wavelength, so incorporating better models for particle hop lengths alone may not be sufficient to improve model predictions.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS2024

Major fluvial erosion and a 500-Mt sediment pulse triggered by lava-dam failure, Río Coca, Ecuador

The failure of a 144-m-high lava-dam waterfall on the Río Coca, Ecuador, in February 2020 initiated a catastrophic watershed reset—regressive erosion upstream and a massive sediment pulse downstream—as the river evolves towards a new equilibrium grade. The evolution of this river corridor after a sudden base-level fall embodies the “complex response” concepts long understood through laboratory experiments, numerical modelling and smaller-scale field studies, but that have not been observed in the field before on this scale. This paper presents geomorphic and geotechnical data to characterize the evolution of the Río Coca since 2020. In the three years after the lava-dam failure, the erosion front migrated almost 13 km upstream along the mainstem river and triggered secondary headcuts that began migrating up tributaries. Erosion of the mainstem and tributary valleys generated a sediment pulse estimated to be 277 million m 3 and ~500 million tonnes (Mt) over three years, depositing sediment tens of meters thick over tens of kilometres downstream from the former waterfall. This sediment pulse is one of the largest in modern times, comparable to the annual sediment load of a major continent-draining river but with orders-of-magnitude greater sediment yield. Geomorphic adjustment of the Río Coca represents a highly unusual natural disaster threatening life, property, water quality, the regional economy, major infrastructure and energy security. However, this event also provides a rare opportunity to learn how a large autogenic watershed disturbance and recovery evolve, with important lessons for interpreting the sedimentary record of volcanic landscapes.

Río Coca↗
USGS2026

Investigating the influence of climate and volcanic surface aging on fluvial erosion: A case study of Réunion Island, Indian Ocean

Precipitation is one of the dominant drivers of landscape erosion and evolution; however, the effects of typical rainfall compared with less frequent, high-magnitude precipitation events on erosion remain unclear. Volcanic islands are ideal locations to study such phenomena due to their simple geometries, nontectonic construction, and strong spatiotemporal rainfall gradients. However, spatial variation in surface age, created during their construction, often complicates their degradation histories by introducing temporal changes in erosion rates as drainage networks develop. Réunion Island (western Indian Ocean) presents a clear example of this, with an east–west gradient in both surface age and mean annual precipitation, as well as infrequent cyclones that alter the background rainfall pattern. In this study, we analyze the effects of surface age, average rainfall, and rainfall variability on basin development and fluvial erosion across the island. We calculate basin-averaged values of basin morphology, age, precipitation, river discharge, eroded volumes, and erosion rates, and use these to analyze the dominant drivers of landscape evolution through a series of correlation analyses. Our results indicate a temporal dependence on the influence of precipitation, with young surfaces being dominantly eroded by high-rainfall events and older surfaces eroded by mean annual rainfall patterns. Furthermore, we show that drainage development of shield volcanoes follows similar trends to other volcano types, and suggest that surface permeability and groundwater structure are important controls on runoff-driven erosion on shield volcanoes. These results add new components to the question of how precipitation impacts erosion.

Réunion Island↗
USGS2013

A fluid-driven earthquake swarm on the margin of the Yellowstone caldera

Over the past several decades, the Yellowstone caldera has experienced frequent earthquake swarms and repeated cycles of uplift and subsidence, reflecting dynamic volcanic and tectonic processes. Here, we examine the detailed spatial-temporal evolution of the 2010 Madison Plateau swarm, which occurred near the northwest boundary of the Yellowstone caldera. To fully explore the evolution of the swarm, we integrated procedures for seismic waveform-based earthquake detection with precise double-difference relative relocation. Using cross-correlation of continuous seismic data and waveform templates constructed from cataloged events, we detected and precisely located 8710 earthquakes during the three-week swarm, nearly four times the number of events included in the standard catalog. This high-resolution analysis reveals distinct migration of earthquake activity over the course of the swarm. The swarm initiated abruptly on January 17, 2010 at about 10 km depth and expanded dramatically outward (both shallower and deeper) over time, primarily along a NNW-striking, ~55º ENE-dipping structure. To explain these characteristics, we hypothesize that the swarm was triggered by the rupture of a zone of confined high-pressure aqueous fluids into a pre-existing crustal fault system, prompting release of accumulated stress. The high-pressure fluid injection may have been accommodated by hybrid shear and dilatational failure, as is commonly observed in exhumed hydrothermally affected fault zones. This process has likely occurred repeatedly in Yellowstone as aqueous fluids exsolved from magma migrate into the brittle crust, and it may be a key element in the observed cycles of caldera uplift and subsidence.

Wyoming↗
USGS2024

Evolving wildlife management cultures of governance through Indigenous Knowledges and perspectives

Within governance agencies, academia, and communities alike, there are increasing calls to recognize the value and importance of culture within social-ecological systems and to better implement Indigenous sciences in research, policy, and management. Efforts thus far have raised questions about the best ethical practices to do so. Engaging with plural worldviews and perspectives on their own terms reflects cultural evolutionary processes driving paradigm shifts in 3 fundamental areas of natural resource management: conceptualizations of natural resources and ecosystems, processes of public participation and governance, and relationships with Indigenous Peoples and communities with differing worldviews. We broadly describe evolution toward these paradigm shifts in fish and wildlife management. We then use 3 case studies to illustrate the ongoing cultural evolution of relationships between wildlife management and Indigenous practices within specific historical and social-ecological contexts and reflect on common barriers to appropriately engaging with Indigenous paradigms and lifeways. Our case studies highlight 3 priorities that can assist the field of wildlife management in achieving the changes necessary to bridge incommensurable worldviews: acknowledging and reconciling historical legacies and their continued power dynamics as part of social-ecological systems, establishing governance arrangements that move beyond attempts to extract cultural information from communities to integrate Indigenous Knowledges into dominant management paradigms, and engaging in critical reflexivity and reciprocal, accountable relationship building. Implementing these changes will take time and a commitment to processes that may initially feel uncomfortable and unfamiliar but have potential to be transformative. Ethical and culturally appropriate methods to include plural and multivocal perspectives and worldviews on their own terms are needed to transform wildlife management to achieve more effective and just management outcomes for all.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2026

Frameworks for assessing tsunami hazard and risk

Tsunamis are multiscale phenomena resulting from a water column displacement that may be induced by multiple sources, and range from local scale inundation processes to ocean-wide scale wave propagation. Different strategies may be required to model tsunami evolution at different scales and to characterize various intensity measures. Research in tsunami hazard and risk has focused mostly on the tsunami effects such as the wave heights or flow depths. This chapter reviews the evolution of tsunami hazard and risk assessment methodologies, with particular emphasis on the development of probabilistic approaches. Building on advances in numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis, two main frameworks for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis (PTHA/PTRA) are described. Framework 1 (FW1) focuses on quantitative methods, including fully simulation-based assessments (FW1A), integration of hazard with vulnerability and loss models (FW1B), consideration of dynamic processes such as tidal and sea-level variations (FW1C), and approaches using limited scenario sets (FW1D). Framework 2 (FW2) complements this by incorporating indicator-based vulnerability assessments, both physical (FW2A) and social, multi-dimensional (FW2B).

Book chapter↗
USGS1995

Exposure of a late cretaceous layered mafic-felsic magma system in the central Sierra Nevada batholith, California

New U-Pb zircon ages for the Lamarck Granodiorite, associated synplutonic gabbro and diorite plutons, and two large mafic intrusive complexes that underlie them in the Sierra Nevada batholith are 92??1 Ma. These ages establish the Late Cretaceous as a period of extensive mafic-felsic magmatism in the central part of the batholith, and confirm the significance of mafic magmatism in the evolution of the voluminous silicic plutions in the Sierran arc. The lack of significant zircon inheritance in any of the units analyzed supports isotopic evidence that the Lamarck and other Late Cretaceous Sierran plutons were derived predominantly from young crust. Recognition of an extensive mafic-felsic magma system in the Sierra Nevada batholith emphasizes the importance of basaltic liquids in the evolution of continental crust in arc settings. ?? 1995 Springer-Verlag.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗
USGS1988

Garnet compositions and their use as indicators of peraluminous granitoid petrogenesis - southeastern Arabian Shield

Garnet, an uncommon accessory mineral in igneous rocks, occurs in seven small peraluminous granitoid plutons in the southeastern Arabian Shield; textural equilibrium between garnet and other host granitoid minerals indicates that the garnets crystallized from their host magmas. Compositions of the garnets form three groups that reflect host-granitoid compositions, which in turn reflect source compositions and tectonic regimes in which the host magmas were generated. Garnets from the seven plutons have almandine-rich cores and spessartine-rich rims. This reverse zoning depicts host magma compositional evolution; i.e. rimward spessartine enrichment resulted from progressive, host-magma manganese enrichment. The garnets are heavy rare-earth element enriched; (Lu/La)N ranges from 13 to 355 and one of the garnets contains spectacularly elevated abundances of Y, Ta, Th, U, Zn, Zr, Hf, Sn, and Nb. Involvement of garnets with these trace element characteristics in magma genesis or evolution can have dramatic effects on trace element signatures of the resulting magmas. Other researchers suggest that Mn-enriched magmas are most conducive to garnet nucleation. Although the garnetiferous granitoids discussed here are slightly Mn enriched, other genetically similar peraluminous Arabian granitoids lack garnet; Mn enrichment alone does not guarantee garnet nucleation. The presence of excess alumina in the magma may be a prerequisite for garnet nucleation. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗
USGS1986

Fire adaptation in Neblinaria celiae (Theaceae), a high-elevation rosette shrub endemic to a wet equatorial tepui

Neblinaria celiae (Theaceae), a rosette shrub endemic to the exceedingly rainy summit of remote Cerro de la Neblina in southern Venezuela, has a previously undescribed set of adaptations to fire. Its growth form entails sparse branching, massive terminal leaf rosettes, and thick bark. It is highly fire-tolerant, with a survival rate of 93% in a stand recently ignited by lightning, vs. 0% in seven co-occurring woody species. Survival increases sharply with rosette height, favoring a sparsely branched habit that would maximize the rate of upward growth through the sparse fuel layer supported by a sterile substrate. Thick bark and massive rosettes help protect cambial and foliar meristems from brief exposure to high temperatures. Rosettes on shorter plants are exposed to greater damage from fire near the ground and, as expected, are bigger and impound more rainwater; the greater number of leaves nearly balances the greater leaf mortality caused by fire. We relate Neblinaria's growth form to its dominance atop Neblina, to a general model for the evolution of sparse branching, and to the evolution of growth form in other tepui plants.

Oecologia↗
USGS1986

Geology of the peralkaline volcano at Pantelleria, Strait of Sicily

Situated in a submerged continental rift, Pantelleria is a volcanic island with a subaerial eruptive history longer than 300 Ka. Its eruptive behavior, edifice morphologies, and complex, multiunit geologic history are representative of strongly peralkaline centers. It is dominated by the 6-km-wide Cinque Denti caldera, which formed ca. 45 Ka ago during eruption of the Green Tuff, a strongly rheomorphic unit zoned from pantellerite to trachyte and consisting of falls, surges, and pyroclastic flows. Soon after collapse, trachyte lava flows from an intracaldera central vent built a broad cone that compensated isostatically for the volume of the caldera and nearly filled it. Progressive chemical evolution of the chamber between 45 and 18 Ka ago is recorded in the increasing peralkalinity of the youngest lava of the intracaldera trachyte cone and the few lavas erupted northwest of the caldera. Beginning about 18 Ka ago, inflation of the chamber opened old ring fractures and new radial fractures, along which recently differentiated pantellerite constructed more than 25 pumice cones and shields. Continued uplift raised the northwest half of the intracaldera trachyte cone 275 m, creating the island's present summit, Montagna Grande, by trapdoor uplift. Pantellerite erupted along the trapdoor faults and their hingeline, forming numerous pumice cones and agglutinate sheets as well as five lava domes. Degassing and drawdown of the upper pantelleritic part of a compositionally and thermally stratified magma chamber during this 18-3-Ka episode led to entrainment of subjacent, crystal-rich, pantelleritic trachyte magma as crenulate inclusions. Progressive mixing between host and inclusions resulted in a secular decrease in the degree of evolution of the 0.82 km3 of magma erupted during the episode. The 45-Ka-old caldera is nested within the La Vecchia caldera, which is thought to have formed around 114 Ka ago. This older caldera was filled by three widespread welded units erupted 106, 94, and 79 Ka ago. Reactivation of the ring fracture ca. 67 Ka ago is indicated by venting of a large pantellerite centero and a chain of small shields along the ring fault. For each of the two nested calderas, the onset of postcaldera ring-fracture volcanism coincides with a low stand of sea level. Rates of chemical regeneration within the chamber are rapid, the 3% crystallization/Ka of the post-Green Tuff period being typical. Highly evolved pantellerites are rare, however, because intervals between major eruptions (averaging 13-6 Ka during the last 190 Ka) are short. Benmoreites and mugearites are entirely lacking. Fe-Ti-rich alkalic basalts have erupted peripherally along NW-trending lineaments parallel to the enclosing rift but not within the nested calderas, suggesting that felsic magma persists beneath them. The most recent basaltic eruption (in 1891) took place 4 km northwest of Pantelleria, manifesting the long-term northwestward migration of the volcanic focus. These strongly differentiated basalts reflect low-pressure fractional crystallization of partial melts of garnet peridotite that coalesce in small magma reservoirs replenished only infrequently in this continental rift environment. ?? 1986 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS1980

A lead isotope study of mineralization in the Saudi Arabian Shield

New lead isotope data are presented for some late Precambrian and early Paleozoic vein and massive sulfide deposits in the Arabian Shield. Using the Stacey Kramers (1975) model for lead isotope evolution, isochron model ages range between 720 m.y. and 420 m.y. Most of the massive sulfide deposits in the region formed before 680 m.y. ago, during evolution of the shield. Vein type mineralization of higher lead content occurred during the Pan African event about 550 m.y. ago and continued through the Najd period of extensive faulting in the shield that ended about 530 m.y. ago. Late post-tectonic metamorphism may have been responsible for vein deposits that have model ages less than 500 m.y. Alternatively some of these younger model ages may be too low due to the mineralizing fluids acquiring radiogenic lead from appreciably older local crustal rocks at the time of ore formation. The low207Pb/204Pb ratios found for the deposits in the main part of the shield and for those in north-eastern Egypt, indicate that the Arabian craton was formed in an oceanic crustal environment during the late Precambrian. Involvement of older, upper-crustal material in the formation of the ore deposits in this part of the shield is precluded by their low207Pb/204Pb and208Pb/204Pb characteristics. In the eastern part of the shield, east of longitude 44??20???E towards the Al Amar-Idsas fault region, lead data are quite different. They exhibit a linear207Pb/204Pb-206Pb/204Pb relationship together with distinctly higher208Pb/204Pb characteristics. These data imply the existence of lower crustal rocks of early Proterozoic age that apparently have underthrust the shield rocks from the east. If most of the samples we have analyzed from this easterly region were mineralized 530 m.y. ago, then the age of the older continental rocks is 2,100??300 m.y. (2??). The presence of upper crustal rocks, possibly also of early Proterozoic age, is indicated by galena data from Hailan in South Yemen and also from near Muscat in Oman. These data are the first to indicate such old continental material in these regions. ?? 1980 Springer-Verlag.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗
USGS2016

A study of the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake and tsunami: Numerical and analytical approaches

The September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake triggered a large tsunami, causing both economic losses and fatalities. To study the coastal effects of this earthquake, and to understand how such hazards might be accurately modeled in the future, different finite fault models of the Illapel rupture are used to define the initial condition for tsunami simulation. The numerical code Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) is employed to model the tsunami evolution through the Pacific Ocean. Because only a short time is available for emergency response, and since the earthquake and tsunami sources are close to the coast, gaining a rapid understanding of the near-field run-up behavior is highly relevant to Chile. Therefore, an analytical solution of the 2 ? 1 D shallow water wave equations is considered. With this solution, we show that we can quickly estimate the run-up distribution along the coastline, to first order. After the earthquake and tsunami, field observations were measured in the surrounded coastal region, where the tsunami resulted in significant run-up. First, we compare the analytical and numerical solutions to test the accuracy of the analytical approach and the field observations, implying the analytic approach can accurately model tsunami run-up after an earthquake, without sacrificing the time necessary for a full numerical inversion. Then, we compare both with field run-up measurements. We observe the consistency between the two approaches. To complete the analysis, a tsunami source inversion is performed using run-up field measurements only. These inversion results are compared with seismic models, and are shown to capture the broad-scale details of those models, without the necessity of the detailed data sets they invert.

Illapel↗