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USGS2003

Fire and aquatic ecosystems of the western USA: Current knowledge and key questions

Understanding of the effects of wildland fire and fire management on aquatic and riparian ecosystems is an evolving field, with many questions still to be resolved. Limitations of current knowledge, and the certainty that fire management will continue, underscore the need to summarize available information. Integrating fire and fuels management with aquatic ecosystem conservation begins with recognizing that terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are linked and dynamic, and that fire can play a critical role in maintaining aquatic ecological diversity. To protect aquatic ecosystems we argue that it will be important to: (1) accommodate fire-related and other ecological processes that maintain aquatic habitats and biodiversity, and not simply control fires or fuels; (2) prioritize projects according to risks and opportunities for fire control and the protection of aquatic ecosystems; and (3) develop new consistency in the management and regulatory process. Ultimately, all natural resource management is uncertain; the role of science is to apply experimental design and hypothesis testing to management applications that affect fire and aquatic ecosystems. Policy-makers and the public will benefit from an expanded appreciation of fire ecology that enables them to implement watershed management projects as experiments with hypothesized outcomes, adequate controls, and replication.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2016

Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycosis in nature

Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2021

Six decades of seismology at South Pole, Antarctica: Current limitations and future opportunities to facilitate new geophysical observations

Seismograms from the South Pole have been important for seismological observations for over six decades by providing (until 2007) the only continuous seismic records from the interior of the Antarctic continent. The South Pole, Antarctica station has undergone many updates over the years, including conversion to a digital recording station as part of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) in 1991 and being relocated to multiple deep ( ⁠ > 250    m "> > 250 m >250 m ⁠ ) boreholes 8 km away from the station in 2003 (and renamed to Quiet South Pole, Antarctica [QSPA]). Notably, QSPA is the second most used GSN station by the National Earthquake Information Center to pick phases used to rapidly detect and locate earthquakes globally, and has been used for a variety of glaciological and oceanography studies. In addition, it is the only seismic station on the Earth where low‐frequency ( ⁠ < 5    mHz "> < 5 mHz <5 mHz ⁠ ), normal‐mode oscillations of the planet excited by large earthquakes can be recorded without influence from Earth’s rotation, and most of the direct effects of the solid Earth tide vanish. However, the current sensors are largely 1980s vintage, and, while able to make some lower‐frequency observations from earthquakes, the borehole sensors appear unable to resolve ambient ground motions at frequencies lower than 25 mHz due to instrument noise and contamination from magnetic field variations. Recently developed borehole sensors offer the potential to extend background noise observations to below 3 mHz, which would substantially improve the fidelity and scientific value of seismic observations at South Pole. Through collaboration with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, the opportunity exists to emplace a modern very broadband seismometer near the base ( ⁠ > 2    km "> > 2 km >2 km depth) of the Antarctic ice cap, which could lead to unprecedented seismic observations at long periods and facilitate a broad spectrum of Earth science studies.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2025

Pre-restoration woody species crown and vegetation community mapping using high-resolution uncrewed aerial system imagery, Palmyra Atoll

The terrestrial management plan for Palmyra Atoll includes large-scale removal of coconut ( Cocos nucifera ) as part of native forest restoration and contaminant remediation that will leave soils and vegetation communities profoundly altered. To inform those efforts and provide baseline data for restoration monitoring, woody stem crowns and vegetation communities at Palmyra Atoll were mapped using existing datasets and manual photointerpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery collected using uncrewed aerial systems. Coconut palm, grand devil's claws ( Pisonia grandis ), and numerous other species were delineated as either individual crowns, crown portions, or species patches. The extent of land area at high tide was also delineated based on vegetation patterns, topographic indicators, and deposition lines of vegetation litter and flotsam. Finally, in a novel “bottom-up” approach to vegetation community mapping, crown maps were used to delineate U.S. National Vegetation Classification System vegetation communities and other management areas. Of the more than 44,000 mapped crowns, coconut was by far the most abundant species, comprising nearly half of the mapped stems. By establishing a quantitative baseline for current habitat conditions, this project facilitates the integration of contaminant remediation recovery activities with habitat restoration planning, implementation, and monitoring at Palmyra Atoll. Results illustrate the appropriateness of the mapping approach for plant species-level censuses and cover estimation over relatively small areas to aid in inventory and monitoring and to facilitate management planning. The relatively simple mapping methods used in this study are appropriate for resource managers with limited human and computational resources to support automated mapping.

Pacific Science↗

USGS2020

Data-driven, multi-model workflow suggests strong influence from hurricanes on the generation of turbidity currents in the Gulf of Mexico

Turbidity currents deliver sediment rapidly from the continental shelf to the slope and beyond; and can be triggered by processes such as shelf resuspension during oceanic storms; mass failure of slope deposits due to sediment- and wave-pressure loadings; and localized events that grow into sustained currents via self-amplifying ignition. Because these operate over multiple spatial and temporal scales, ranging from the eddy-scale to continental-scale; coupled numerical models that represent the full transport pathway have proved elusive though individual models have been developed to describe each of these processes. Toward a more holistic tool, a numerical workflow was developed to address pathways for sediment routing from terrestrial and coastal sources, across the continental shelf and ultimately down continental slope canyons of the northern Gulf of Mexico, where offshore infrastructure is susceptible to damage by turbidity currents. Workflow components included: 1) a calibrated simulator for fluvial discharge (Water Balance Model - Sediment; WBMsed ); 2) domain grids for seabed sediment textures ( dbSEABED ); bathymetry, and channelization; 3) a simulator for ocean dynamics and resuspension (the Regional Ocean Modeling System; ROMS ); 4) A simulator ( HurriSlip ) of seafloor failure and flow ignition; and 5) A Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes ( RANS ) turbidity current model ( TURBINS ). Model simulations explored physical oceanic conditions that might generate turbidity currents, and allowed the workflow to be tested for a year that included two hurricanes. Results showed that extreme storms were especially effective at delivering sediment from coastal source areas to the deep sea, at timescales that ranged from individual wave events (~hours), to the settling lag of fine sediment (~days).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS1999

Fishes of Missouri River, chute, and flood plain habitats: Chapter 4 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) is approximately 2,200 acres and is the first complete unit of the Refuge. Primary objectives of the Refuge are to create and restore diverse riverine aquatic habitats and reconnect the Missouri River to its flood plain where feasible. Management seeks to accomplish these objectives by encouraging natural processes of erosion, deposition, and succession to the greatest extent possible. One of the most salient aquatic features of the Lisbon Bottom Unit is a newly created 2-mile-long free-flowing chute, or side channel (Fig. 1). This chute began forming as a levee breech scour hole during the Great Flood of 1993. The chute continued to develop during the 1995 flood and finally cut through to a flowing side channel during the 1996 flood. Extensive erosion and bank sluffing continued during 1997 due to sustained high flows that occurred throughout most of the year. The chute has progressively become wider and deeper with a developing meander pattern and channel bars have begun to form. Lisbon Bottom also contains several seasonal and permanent wetlands and is subject to periodic flooding at high Missouri River stages. Eight studies have been completed or are ongoing to evaluate Missouri River fishes associated with various habitat components of Lisbon Bottom and adjacent Missouri River reaches (Table 1). Several are part of much larger investigations to evaluate fish use of flood-created habitat features, basinwide fish assessment, and endangered or candidate species concerns. At the Lisbon Bottom Unit or in the Missouri River adjacent to the unit 54 fish species were collected (Table 2). Eight of these species have either a protected status under State or Federal laws or biologists consider them to potentially qualify for protected status. The status of the following fish is listed in Table 2: pallid sturgeon x shovelnose sturgeon hybrid, paddlefish, northern pike, sturgeon chub, sicklefin chub, ghost shiner, western silvery minnow, plains minnow, and blue sucker. Equally important to note are fish species that were not collected. The flathead chub, currently listed as State endangered and proposed for Federal listing, were not collected in any of the studies. Common fish species, collected in all seven sampling studies, included gizzard shad, common carp, river carpsucker, and freshwater drum. Paddlefish, skipjack herring, silver carp, white sucker, redfin shiner, western silvery minnow, bullhead minnow, and black bullhead were each collected in only one of the seven studies. Pflieger (1971) developed a guild system for the fishes of Missouri based on distribution patterns and centers of abundance. Fish were assigned to one of four primary faunal groups: Ozark, Big River, Lowland, and Prairie. Two secondary groups (Ozark-prairie and Ozark-lowland) were defined for species equally abundant and distributed in two of the primary areas. Two Ozark-prairie species, shorthead redhorse and white sucker, were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Big River species are found primarily in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The environmental factors controlling fish distribution in these rivers appear to be substrate, current velocity, and turbidity. On or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit 18 Big River species were collected (Table 2). Lowland species are intolerant of siltation and high turbidity. They inhabit standing or slow-moving water with sand, fine gravel, and organic debris substrates. Two Lowland species, bullhead minnow and mosquitofish, were collected in connected scours on the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Prairie species have broader ecological tolerances than the Ozark and Lowland species. They are largely absent in high gradient streams and cool, clear waters. Prairie species make up a significant proportion of Missouri and Mississippi River fishes. Seven Prairie species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). The last group, Wide-ranging, was defined as the species more widespread than the other faunal groups with broader environmental tolerances. Most Wide-ranging species occur at least occasionally in all sections of the state. Nineteen Wide-ranging species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). Kubisiak (1997) found that isolated scours in the Lower Missouri River were dominated by Wide-ranging species. Connected scours also held Wideranging species but they contained Prairie species and were dominated by Big River species. Faunal group diversity and species richness were compared between isolated (Study l) and connected (Studies 4, 5, 7, and 8) scours of the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Species richness was similar with 22 species collected in isolated scours and an average of 24.8 species collected in connected scours. Isolated scour fish catches were dominated by Wide-ranging fish (59%) with 14% Big River fishes and 14% Prairie fishes. Connected scours had a larger percentage of Big River fish (32%) and fewer Wide-ranging (36%) and Prairie (13%) species than the isolated scours. In the combined studies, Wide-ranging fish dominated the connected scours. A similar comparison was made of fish from chute habitats and the Missouri River. Chute habitats include the Lisbon Bottom Chute, the chute between the right bank and island located at river mile 219, and a shallow channel running between a large sandbar complex and the channel border adjacent to Lisbon Bottom. Species richness in the chutes (35 species) was greater than that of the adjacent river (23 species). Big River species (40%) dominated the chute samples, followed by Wide-ranging at 31% Cand Prairie Cut 14%. The river samples contained equal numbers of Wide-ranging species (35%) and Big River species (35%) with 17% Prairie species. Differences in fish guild diversity and species richness may be due to numerous factors including sampling effort and sampling season. River samples were collected only in Study 3 in October; chute samples were collected in July, August, and October. Fish may have been using the chute in July and August to spawn, feed, or escape high river levels. The Lisbon Bottom Chute is a truly unique feature of the Lower Missouri River. It is the first naturally created side channel to develop since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers tamed the river. The Corps eliminated 89% of the islands in the Missouri River between 1879 and 1954 (Funk and Robinson 1974). The chutes between the islands and the shore were shallower with less current than the main channel. These areas provided diversity to the Missouri River fish habitat, serving as nursery and feeding areas. The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge will continue to be studied in an effort to understand the complex role these areas play in river systems.

Missouri↗

USGS2019

Bayesian statistics for beginners: A step-by-step approach

Bayesian statistics is currently undergoing something of a renaissance. At its heart is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. It is an approach that is ideally suited to making initial assessments based on incomplete or imperfect information; as that information is gathered and disseminated, the Bayesian approach corrects or replaces the assumptions and alters its decision-making accordingly to generate a new set of probabilities. As new data/evidence becomes available the probability for a particular hypothesis can therefore be steadily refined and revised. It is very well-suited to the scientific method in general and is widely used across the social, biological, medical, and physical sciences. Key to this book's novel and informal perspective is its unique pedagogy, a question and answer approach that utilizes accessible language, humor, plentiful illustrations, and frequent reference to on-line resources. Bayesian Statistics for Beginners is an introductory textbook suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate students, professional researchers, and practitioners seeking to improve their understanding of the Bayesian statistical techniques they routinely use for data analysis in the life and medical sciences, psychology, public health, business, and other fields.

Book↗

USGS2011

Interagency partnering for weed prevention-- Progress on development of a National Early Detection and Rapid Response System for Invasive Plants in the United States

Over the past 50 years, experience has shown that interagency groups provide an effective forum for addressing various invasive species issues and challenges on multiple land units. However, more importantly, they can also provide a coordinated framework for early detection, reporting, identification and vouchering, rapid assessment, and rapid response to new and emerging invasive plants in the United States. Interagency collaboration maximizes the use of available expertise, resources, and authority for promoting early detection and rapid response (EDRR) as the preferred management option for addressing new and emerging invasive plants. Currently, an interagency effort is underway to develop a National EDRR System for Invasive Plants in the United States. The proposed system will include structural and informational elements. Structural elements of the system include a network of interagency partner groups to facilitate early detection and rapid response to new invasive plants, including the Federal Interagency Committee for the Management of Noxious and Exotic Weeds (FICMNEW), State Invasive Species Councils, State Early Detection and Rapid Response Coordinating Committees, State Volunteer Detection and Reporting Networks, Invasive Plant Task Forces, and Cooperative Weed Management Areas. Informational elements and products being developed include Regional Invasive Plant Atlases, and EDRR Guidelines for EDRR Volunteer Network Training, Rapid Assessment and Rapid Response, and Criteria for Selection of EDRR Species. System science and technical support elements which are provided by cooperating state and federal scientists, include EDRR guidelines, training curriculum for EDRR volunteers and agency field personnel, plant identification and vouchering, rapid assessments, as well as predictive modeling and ecological range studies for invasive plant species.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Flood-Inundation Maps for Sugar Creek at Crawfordsville, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.5-mile reach of Sugar Creek at Crawfordsville, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 03339500, Sugar Creek at Crawfordsville, Ind. Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site (NWS site CRWI3). Flood profiles were computed for the USGS streamgage 03339500, Sugar Creek at Crawfordsville, Ind., reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic modeling software developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated using the current stage-discharge rating at the USGS streamgage 03339500, Sugar Creek at Crawfordsville, Ind., and high-water marks from the flood of April 19, 2013, which reached a stage of 15.3 feet. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 13 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum ranging from 4.0 ft (the NWS “action stage”) to 16.0 ft, which is the highest stage interval of the current USGS stage-discharge rating curve and 2 ft higher than the NWS “major flood stage.” The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging [lidar]) data having a 0.49-ft root mean squared error and 4.9-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each stage. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗

USGS2017

Flood-inundation maps for North Fork Salt Creek at Nashville, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.2-mile reach of North Fork Salt Creek at Nashville, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding that correspond to selected water levels (stages) at the North Fork Salt Creek at Nashville, Ind., streamgage (USGS station number 03371650). Real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also shows observed USGS stages at the same site as the USGS streamgage (NWS site NFSI3). Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional, step-backwater hydraulic modeling software developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated using the current (2015) stage-discharge rating at the USGS streamgage 03371650, North Fork Salt Creek at Nashville, Ind. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 12 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals, except for the highest profile of 22.9 ft, referenced to the streamgage datum ranging from 12.0 ft (the NWS “action stage”) to 22.9 ft, which is the highest stage of the current (2015) USGS stage-discharge rating curve and 1.9 ft higher than the NWS “major flood stage.” The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.98-ft vertical accuracy and 4.9-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each stage. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗

USGS1981

The U.S. Earthquake Prediction Program

Following on from the concepts of plate tectonics, the earth sciences are now embarking on a challenging course- the time prediction of geologic phenomena. Earthquake prediction is an outstanding example of this. However, earthquake prediction is not the only scientific goal. The destructive power of a large earthquake requires that we also take mitigating actions; these include earthquake engineering research to design construction that will resist earthquake shaking. Nevertheless, earthquake prediction has a vital role to play not only in the saving of lives, but in the reduction of economic loss and social disruption from large earthquakes. There are two distinct motivations for earthquake prediction. The mechanistic approach aims to understand the processes leading to a large earthquake. The empirical approach is governed by the immediate need to protect lives and property. With our current lack of knowledge about the earthquake process, future progress cannot be made without gathering a large body of measurements. These are required not only for the empirical prediction of earthquakes, but also for the testing and development of hypotheses that further our understanding of the processes at work. The earthquake prediction program is basically a program of scientific inquiry, but one which is motivated by social, political, economic, and scientific reasons. It is a pursuit that cannot rely on empirical observations alone nor can it carried out solely on a blackboard or in a laboratory. Experiments must be carried out in the real Earth.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS2026

Vulnerability of mangrove resources to sea-level rise on Sanibel Island, Florida, USA

Accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) is poised to reshape coastal environments over the coming decades, providing a challenge to land managers who need actionable information. Mangroves have an innate ability to keep pace with some SLR but may drown under the higher rates projected by the end of the century. Understanding local mangrove resilience to SLR requires understanding of historic and contemporary accretion rates, productivity, and forest elevations relative to tidal inundation. We applied the WARMER3 modeling framework to assess future mangrove resilience to SLR and blue carbon storage across the “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel Island in southwest Florida, USA. We found that Sanibel mangroves are sensitive to the SLR scenario, with projected losses ranging from 19 to 70% by 2100. Across SLR scenarios, projected areal extent was similar until about 2035 and then diverge, coincident with projected acceleration in the rate of SLR. Threshold analysis indicates found that Sanibel mangroves are likely to submerge when rates exceed 6.5 mm yr −1 . Currently, the mangrove forest of our study domain holds an estimated 214,000 Mg of carbon but is likely to decrease as mangroves convert to open water in the second half of this century. For “Ding” Darling, these site-specific projections identify when losses in mangrove resources are most likely, providing a basis to prioritize local management actions and conservation resources.

Florida↗

USGS2023

Contribution of arsenic and uranium in private wells and community water systems to urinary biomarkers in US adults: The Strong Heart Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (As) and uranium (U) in the United States (US) occurs from unregulated private wells and federally regulated community water systems (CWSs). The contribution of water to total exposure is assumed to be low when water As and U concentrations are low. Objective We examined the contribution of water As and U to urinary biomarkers in the Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS), a prospective study of American Indian communities, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective study of racially/ethnically diverse urban U.S. communities. Methods We assigned residential zip code-level estimates in CWSs (µg/L) and private wells (90th percentile probability of As >10 µg/L) to up to 1485 and 6722 participants with dietary information and urinary biomarkers in the SHFS (2001–2003) and MESA (2000–2002; 2010–2011), respectively. Urine As was estimated as the sum of inorganic and methylated species, and urine U was total uranium. We used linear mixed-effects models to account for participant clustering and removed the effect of dietary sources via regression adjustment. Results The median (interquartile range) urine As was 5.32 (3.29, 8.53) and 6.32 (3.34, 12.48) µg/L for SHFS and MESA, respectively, and urine U was 0.037 (0.014, 0.071) and 0.007 (0.003, 0.018) µg/L. In a meta-analysis across both studies, urine As was 11% (95% CI: 3, 20%) higher and urine U was 35% (5, 73%) higher per twofold higher CWS As and U, respectively. In the SHFS, zip-code level factors such as private well and CWS As contributed 46% of variation in urine As, while in MESA, zip-code level factors, e.g., CWS As and U, contribute 30 and 49% of variation in urine As and U, respectively. Impact statement We found that water from unregulated private wells and regulated CWSs is a major contributor to urinary As and U (an estimated measure of internal dose) in both rural, American Indian populations and urban, racially/ethnically diverse populations nationwide, even at levels below the current regulatory standard. Our findings indicate that additional drinking water interventions, regulations, and policies can have a major impact on reducing total exposures to As and U, which are linked to adverse health effects even at low levels.

Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epid↗

USGS2023

A synergistic future for AI and ecology

Research in both ecology and AI strives for predictive understanding of complex systems, where nonlinearities arise from multidimensional interactions and feedbacks across multiple scales. After a century of independent, asynchronous advances in computational and ecological research, we foresee a critical need for intentional synergy to meet current societal challenges against the backdrop of global change. These challenges include understanding the unpredictability of systems-level phenomena and resilience dynamics on a rapidly changing planet. Here, we spotlight both the promise and the urgency of a convergence research paradigm between ecology and AI. Ecological systems are a challenge to fully and holistically model, even using the most prominent AI technique today: deep neural networks. Moreover, ecological systems have emergent and resilient behaviors that may inspire new, robust AI architectures and methodologies. We share examples of how challenges in ecological systems modeling would benefit from advances in AI techniques that are themselves inspired by the systems they seek to model. Both fields have inspired each other, albeit indirectly, in an evolution toward this convergence. We emphasize the need for more purposeful synergy to accelerate the understanding of ecological resilience whilst building the resilience currently lacking in modern AI systems, which have been shown to fail at times because of poor generalization in different contexts. Persistent epistemic barriers would benefit from attention in both disciplines. The implications of a successful convergence go beyond advancing ecological disciplines or achieving an artificial general intelligence—they are critical for both persisting and thriving in an uncertain future.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2016

Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

USGS2008

Understanding the occurrence and transport of current-use pesticides in the San Francisco estuary watershed

The occurrence and potential effects of current-use pesticides are of concern in the San Francisco Estuary watershed but our understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of contamination is limited. This paper summarizes almost two decades of historical data and uses it to describe our current knowledge of the processes controlling the occurrence of current-use pesticides in the watershed. Monitoring studies analyze fewer than half of the pesticides applied in the watershed and most of our knowledge is about inputs of dissolved pesticides in the upper watershed. The four major seasonal patterns of riverine inputs of pesticides to the estuary can be identified by usage and transport mechanism. Dormant spray insecticides applied to orchards and herbicides applied to a variety of crops are transported by rainfall during the winter. Alfalfa pesticides are detected following rainfall and irrigation return flow in the spring, and rice pesticides are detected following release of rice field water in the summer. Irrigation return flows transport a variety of herbicides during the summer. In addition, pesticides applied on Delta islands can cause elevated pesticide concentrations in localized areas. Although not as well characterized, urban creeks appear to have their own patterns of insecticide concentrations causing toxicity throughout most of the year. Current-use pesticides have also been detected on suspended and bed sediments throughout the watershed but limited data make it difficult to determine occurrence patterns. Data gaps include the lack of analysis of many pesticides (or degradates), changing pesticide use, limited information on pesticide transport within the Delta, and an incomplete understanding of the transport and persistence of sediment-associated pesticides. Future monitoring programs should be designed to address these data gaps.

California↗

USGS2014

Hydraulic modeling development and application in water resources engineering

The use of modeling has become widespread in water resources engineering and science to study rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal regions. For example, computer models are commonly used to forecast anthropogenic effects on the environment, and to help provide advanced mitigation measures against catastrophic events such as natural and dam-break floods. Linking hydraulic models to vegetation and habitat models has expanded their use in multidisciplinary applications to the riparian corridor. Implementation of these models in software packages on personal desktop computers has made them accessible to the general engineering community, and their use has been popularized by the need of minimal training due to intuitive graphical user interface front ends. Models are, however, complex and nontrivial, to the extent that even common terminology is sometimes ambiguous and often applied incorrectly. In fact, many efforts are currently under way in order to standardize terminology and offer guidelines for good practice, but none has yet reached unanimous acceptance. This chapter provides a view of the elements involved in modeling surface flows for the application in environmental water resources engineering. It presents the concepts and steps necessary for rational model development and use by starting with the exploration of the ideas involved in defining a model. Tangible form of those ideas is provided by the development of a mathematical and corresponding numerical hydraulic model, which is given with a substantial amount of detail. The issues of model deployment in a practical and productive work environment are also addressed. The chapter ends by presenting a few model applications highlighting the need for good quality control in model validation.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Hydrogeology and Ground-Water Flow in the Opequon Creek Watershed area, Virginia and West Virginia

Due to increasing population and economic development in the northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, water availability has become a primary concern for water-resource managers in the region. To address these issues, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Services and the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, developed a numerical steady-state simulation of ground-water flow for the 1,013-square-kilometer Opequon Creek watershed area. The model was based on data aggregated for several recently completed and ongoing USGS hydrogeologic investigations conducted in Jefferson, Berkeley, and Morgan Counties in West Virginia and Clarke, Frederick, and Warren Counties in Virginia. A previous detailed hydrogeologic assessment of the watershed area of Hopewell Run (tributary to the Opequon Creek), which includes the USGS Leetown Science Center in Jefferson County, West Virginia, provided key understanding of ground-water flow processes in the aquifer. The ground-water flow model developed for the Opequon Creek watershed area is a steady-state, three-layer representation of ground-water flow in the region. The primary objective of the simulation was to develop water budgets for average and drought hydrologic conditions. The simulation results can provide water managers with preliminary estimates on which water-resource decisions may be based. Results of the ground-water flow simulation of the Opequon Creek watershed area indicate that hydrogeologic concepts developed for the Hopewell Run watershed area can be extrapolated to the larger watershed model. Sensitivity analyses conducted as part of the current modeling effort and geographic information system analyses of spring location and yield reveal that thrust and cross-strike faults and low-permeability bedding, which provide structural and lithologic controls, respectively, on ground-water flow, must be incorporated into the model to develop a realistic simulation of ground-water flow in the larger Opequon Creek watershed area. In the model, recharge for average hydrologic conditions was 689 m3/d/km2 (cubic meters per day per square kilometer) over the entire Opequon Creek watershed area. Mean and median measured base flows at the streamflow-gaging station on the Opequon Creek near Martinsburg, West Virginia, were 604,384 and 349,907 m3/d (cubic meters per day), respectively. The simulated base flow of 432,834 m3/d fell between the mean and median measured stream base flows for the station. Simulated base-flow yields for subwatersheds during average conditions ranged from 0 to 2,643 m3/d/km2, and the median for the entire Opequon Creek watershed area was 557 m3/d/km2. A drought was simulated by reducing model recharge by 40 percent, a rate that approximates the recharge during the prolonged 16-month drought that affected the region from November 1998 to February 2000. Mean and median measured streamflows for the Opequon Creek watershed area at the Martinsburg, West Virginia, streamflow-gaging station during the 1999 drought were 341,098 and 216,551 m3/d, respectively. The simulated drought base flow at the station of 252,356 m3/d is within the range of flows measured during the 1999 drought. Recharge was 413 m3/d/km2 over the entire watershed during the simulated drought, and was 388 m3/d/km2 at the gaging station. Simulated base-flow yields for drought conditions ranged from 0 to 1,865 m3/d/km2 and averaged 327 m3/d/km2 over the entire Opequon Creek watershed. Water budgets developed from the simulation results indicate a substantial component of direct ground-water discharge to the Potomac River. This phenomenon had long been suspected but had not been quantified. During average conditions, approximately 564,176 m3/d of base flow discharges to the Potomac River. An additional 124,379 m3/d of ground water is also estimated to discharge directly to the Potomac River and rep

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