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Conservation at the nexus of niches: Multidimensional niche modeling to improve management of Prairie Chub

Objective A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding how organisms are spatially and temporally distributed and how management might be tailored to maintain or restore species distributions. The niche concept is central to understanding species distributions, but the diversity of niche definitions requires that multiple dimensions be considered. For example, the Grinnellian niche concept focuses on environmental conditions that allow species to persist, the Eltonian niche concept stresses the influence of biotic interactions, and the fundamental niche concept considers both abiotic and biotic environmental features to define spaces that organisms could occupy. Methods We combined abiotic ( A ), biotic ( B ), and movement ( M ) information (collectively, BAM model) to map the multidimensional niche of Prairie Chub Macrhybopsis australis , a regionally endemic freshwater fish currently under review for listing under the Endangered Species Act. We estimated A using remotely sensed environmental riverscape variables, B using the spatial distribution of a hybridization zone between Prairie Chub and Shoal Chub M. hyostoma , and M using data from a mark–recapture study. Result The BAM model estimated the spatial extent of multiple niches, including the Grinnellian ( A ; extent = 944 km of river), Eltonian ( B ; 2974 km), and fundamental niche (overlap of A + B ; 645 km) niches. When A , B , and M components were combined, the estimated extent of the Prairie Chub niche was 645 km. Conclusion Our work shows that the realized, multidimensional niche of Prairie Chub includes medium to large rivers with high habitat connectivity in the upper–middle Red River basin upstream of the distribution of Shoal Chub. The current Prairie Chub distribution could be maintained by preventing further habitat fragmentation and maintaining the environmental gradient separating Prairie Chub from Shoal Chub. Expansion of the species distribution may be possible through restoration of longitudinal fluvial connectivity.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Biogeography of freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionida) in Texas and implications on conservation biology

Aim Biogeography seeks to identify and explain the spatial distributions of species and has become an important tool used by conservationists to protect and manage aquatic organisms. Texas, located in the southwestern United States, is home to 52 species of freshwater mussels, 9 of which are endemic to Texas and 7 that are endemic to Texas and neighboring states or countries. There have been two major attempts to classify this fauna into biogeographical provinces; however, both efforts relied on limited distribution information and outdated taxonomy. To address both issues, we set out to delineate biogeographic provinces for freshwater mussels in Texas by using a comprehensive distributional dataset of >28,000 records and molecular information. Location Southwestern United States. Methods We compiled community and molecular data for 48 of the 52 freshwater mussel species that occur in Texas. We performed algorithmic hierarchal cluster analysis (HCA) and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) based on Euclidean distance to identify biogeographic groupings. We conducted a similar analysis using molecular sequence data for our target species. Results Based on the results from community and molecular data, we identified seven biogeographic provinces for freshwater mussels in Texas: Great Plains, Mississippi Embayment, Sabine-Neches, Trinity-San Jacinto, Central Texas, Rio Grande and Coastal. However, the Coastal and Great Plains provinces were not included in our analysis and were recognized based on previous work. Main conclusions Our approach integrating community and molecular datasets provides a comprehensive assessment of the biogeography of freshwater mussels in Texas, which serves as a model for future biogeographic studies. Our findings also shed light on the ecological, evolutionary and geologic processes shaping freshwater mussel communities in Texas, which is important for the conservation of remaining biodiversity in the state.

Texas↗

Structural Equation Modeling: Applications in ecological and evolutionary biology

This book presents an introduction to the methodology of structural equation modeling, illustrates its use, and goes on to argue that it has revolutionary implications for the study of natural systems. A major theme of this book is that we have, up to this point, attempted to study systems primarily using methods (such as the univariate model) that were designed only for considering individual processes. Understanding systems requires the capacity to examine simultaneous influences and responses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) has such capabilities. It also possesses many other traits that add strength to its utility as a means of making scientific progress. In light of the capabilities of SEM, it can be argued that much of ecological theory is currently locked in an immature state that impairs its relevance. It is further argued that the principles of SEM are capable of leading to the development and evaluation of multivariate theories of the sort vitally needed for the conservation of natural systems. Supplementary information can be found at the authors website, http://www.jamesbgrace.com/ . • Details why multivariate analyses should be used to study ecological systems • Exposes unappreciated weakness in many current popular analyses • Emphasizes the future methodological developments needed to advance our understanding of ecological systems.

Book↗

Conceptual ecological model for management of breeding shrubland birds in the Mid-Atlantic Region

While grassland birds have become the focus of increased conservation activities, the status of birds occupying shrubland habitats has received relatively little attention (Hunter et al. 2001). Yet, in eastern North America, shrubland birds exhibited consistent population declines during the past 40 years, based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (Pardieck and Sauer 2001). These population declines primarily reflect large-scale changes in land use patterns during the previous century (Lorimer 2001). Large areas of marginal farmland were abandoned and underwent secondary succession during the first half of the twentieth century, producing abundant successional habitats favored by shrubland birds. As these habitats matured, combined with strict fire-suppression policies (Hunter et al. 2001), shrublands succeeded into mature forests, and shrubland bird communities were replaced by woodland birds (Irland 1982; Askins 1993). For example, while nearly 29% of New England forests were classified as sapling stage in 1950, only 8% remained at that stage in the 1980s (Askins 1993). The trend towards forest maturation and loss of shrubland habitats continues, yet concerted conservation activities have not been directed to benefit declining shrubland bird populations. The National Park Service (NPS) could contribute to shrubland bird conservation in the Mid- Atlantic Region. The NPS maintains a number of historic sites and former battlefields managed for their cultural significance but also support wildlife populations. Many of these “cultural parks” maintain open landscapes, recreating land use patterns existing at the times of the historical events. While these open landscapes are frequently managed grasslands, some parks also support successional habitats that could be managed to benefit shrubland birds. In 2005, the NPS initiated a project exploring the potential of “cultural parks” to support significant breeding grassland and shrubland bird communities. This project involved parks within three NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) networks, Mid-Atlantic, National Capital, and Eastern Rivers and Mountains. Five parks were selected for the initial focus of this study, all of which maintain open landscapes for interpreting historic events. Most parks were selected because they contain the most extensive grassland habitats within their networks, although some also support shrubby successional habitats. The five parks included in this study are Antietam National Battlefield, Fort Necessity National Battlefield, Gettysburg National Battlefield, Manassas National Battlefield, and Monocacy National Battlefield. This conceptual ecological model is one product of this project. The information presented below allows NPS network coordinators to understand which factors should be considered when making decisions concerning shrubland management within their networks. This model provides park resource managers with information on shrubland ecology in the Mid-Atlantic Region, the ecological requirements of shrubland birds likely to occur in their parks, and management issues influencing whether significant breeding populations can occupy shrublands created and maintained in the parks. Resource managers can then make informed decisions concerning their ability to create and maintain shrubland habitats. The emphasis of this conceptual model is restricted to management of breeding shrubland birds. Additional species occur during migration and winter, and habitat requirements of shrubland birds during nonbreeding seasons may differ from those described for the breeding season.

Technical Report↗

Leveraging socioeconomic flows to inform shared, migratory species conservation

Migratory species, and the many cultural and economic values they provide, are declining worldwide. Previous research has quantified ecosystem service flows for single migratory species to provide valuable information on the dynamics of socio-ecological systems to inform cross-jurisdictional management. There are efficiencies in implementation to be gained from considering the dynamics of multiple species (e.g., ecological guilds) simultaneously. As proof of concept, this paper demonstrates how ecosystem service flows can be aggregated spatially for a group of three North American migratory species. We further present a flexible approach to estimating how conservation funding can be allocated equitably between regions of the migratory range. Results show that most benefits from these three migratory species are supported locally by habitat within each region, but net interregional flows exist, including a $33.1M annual subsidy from Mexico to the U.S. and Canada. Results also suggest that directing 18% of net conservation funding raised for these species in the U.S. and Canada toward conservation projects in Mexico would redress inequities in shared management responsibility. Considering the values provided by multiple species simultaneously has the potential to broaden coalitions and expedite negotiation of international agreements by providing a better shared understanding of the benefits to each party.

North America↗

The potential of semi-structured citizen science data as a supplement for conservation decision-making: Validating the performance of eBird against targeted avian monitoring efforts

Methods are being developed to capitalize on citizen science data for research and monitoring, but these data are rarely used within established decision-making frameworks of wildlife agencies. Citizen science data are often collected at higher resolution and extent than targeted monitoring programs, and may provide complementary information. Here, we demonstrate that carefully filtered semi-structured citizen science observations, when paired with targeted survey data, can produce ecological predictions at higher resolution and extent than targeted surveys alone, and both datasets can represent complementary aspects of species' ecology. We present case studies demonstrating how citizen science data can enhance or supplement decision-making of government and conservation organizations. First, we show how the continuous spatial coverage of citizen science projects, when coupled with targeted surveys, can improve estimates of metrics used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in regulatory processes to estimate population size, and inform take limits of federally managed species nationwide. Second, we show that the spatial coverage of citizen science accommodates dynamic avian space use patterns during key times of the year, relative to standardized monitoring protocols carried out by the Illinois Natural History Survey. Lastly, we demonstrate that citizen science information can replicate estimates of migratory chronologies for the Illinois Natural History Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for some waterfowl species, and in some contexts can supplement missing data on abundance. These findings illustrate the value of integrating validated information from semi-structured citizen science into the current evidence base used to justify, inform, and evaluate conservation decision-making.

California, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri↗

Decision analysis for habitat conservation of an endangered, range-limited salamander

Many species of conservation concern are habitat limited and often a major focus of management for these species is habitat acquisition and/or restoration. Deciding the location of habitat restoration or acquisition to best benefit a protected species can be a complicated subject with competing management objectives, ecological uncertainties and stochasticity. Structured decision making (SDM) could be a useful approach for explicitly incorporating those complexities while still working toward species conservation and/or recovery. We applied an SDM approach to Red Hills salamander Phaeognathus hubrichti habitat conservation decision making. Phaeognathus hubrichti is a severely range-limited endemic species in south central Alabama and has highly specific habitat requirements. Many known populations live on private lands and the primary mode of habitat protection is habitat conservation planning, but such plans are non-binding and not permanent. Working with stakeholders, we developed an objectives hierarchy linking land acquisition or protection actions to fundamental objectives. We built a model to assess and compare the quality of the habitat in the known range of P. hubrichti . Our model evaluated key habitat attributes of 5814 pixels of 1 km 2 each and ranked the pixels from best to worst with respect to P. hubrichti habitat requirements. Our results are a spatially explicit valuation of each pixel, with respect to its probable benefit to P. hubrichti populations. The results of this effort will be used to rank pixels from most to least beneficial, then identify land owners in the most useful areas for salamanders who are willing to sell or enter into a permanent easement agreement.

Alabama↗

Co-occurrence models fail to infer underlying patterns of avoidance and aggregation when closure is violated

Advances in multi-species monitoring have prompted an increase in the use of multi-species occupancy analyses to assess patterns of co-occurrence among species, even when data were collected at scales likely violating the assumption that sites were closed to changes in the occupancy state for the target species. Violating the closure assumption may lead to erroneous conclusions related to patterns of co-occurrence among species. Occurrence for two hypothetical species was simulated under patterns of avoidance, aggregation, or independence, when the closure assumption was either met or not. Simulated populations were sampled at two levels ( N = 250 or 100 sites) and two scales of temporal resolution for surveys. Sample data were analyzed with conditional two-species occupancy models, and performance was assessed based on the proportion of simulations recovering the true pattern of co-occurrence. Estimates of occupancy were unbiased when closure was met, but biased when closure violations occurred; bias increased when sample size was small and encounter histories were collapsed to a large-scale temporal resolution. When closure was met and patterns of avoidance and aggregation were simulated, conditional two-species models tended to correctly find support for non-independence, and estimated species interaction factors (SIF) aligned with predicted values. By contrast, when closure was violated, models tended to incorrectly infer a pattern of independence and power to detect simulated patterns of avoidance or aggregation that decreased with smaller sample size. Results suggest that when the closure assumption is violated, co-occurrence models often fail to detect underlying patterns of avoidance or aggregation, and incorrectly identify a pattern of independence among species, which could have negative consequences for our understanding of species interactions and conservation efforts. Thus, when closure is violated, inferred patterns of independence from multi-species occupancy should be interpreted cautiously, and evidence of avoidance or aggregation is likely a conservative estimate of true pattern or interaction.

Ecology and Evolution↗

Occurrence, abundance, movement, and habitat associations of Bonneville Cutthroat Trout in tributaries to Bear Lake, Idaho-Utah

Bonneville Cutthroat Trout (BCT) Oncorhynchus clarkii utah in Bear Lake, Idaho–Utah, is an important endemic and recreational species and plays a vital ecological role in systems throughout the basin. Although the distribution and abundance of BCT have declined due to anthropogenic disturbances, production of wild BCT in Bear Lake has increased over the past decade as a result of extensive habitat improvement in spawning tributaries. The objective of this study was to assess the occurrence, distribution, and out-migration of BCT in tributaries of Bear Lake. Surveys were conducted at 75 stream reaches across three study streams (i.e., St. Charles, Fish Haven, and Swan creeks) during 2019 and 2020. A total of 1,064 BCT was sampled from 55 of 75 total reaches (73%). Total length of BCT varied from 22 to 650 mm, and the average TL was 117 mm (SE = 2.2). Regression models were used to identify abiotic and biotic features associated with BCT distribution, abundance, and probability of out-migration. Regardless of the tributary, elevation was negatively related to BCT occurrence and relative abundance. Other habitat characteristics associated with the presence and abundance of BCT were similar to those of other Cutthroat Trout species. For example, BCT were often associated with large substrates, instream cover, canopy cover, and heterogeneity in several habitat characteristics. The probability of a BCT out-migrating was positively associated with fish length and age but negatively related to distance to Bear Lake and number of downstream irrigation diversions. Results from this study provide critical information on the ecology and early life history characteristics of BCT that can be used to guide additional conservation and management efforts (i.e., removal of nonnative fish species; continued habitat restoration efforts).

Idaho, Utah↗

Wildlife diseases: philosophical considerations

Wildlife diseases are studied because of their adverse impact on human health, agriculture, or wildlife conservation. Viewpoints from these three major areas of concern are not always compatible, yet the ecological nature of disease makes it essential that each is recognized and understood. Within wildlife agencies, resistance or apathy toward controlling wildlife disease arises because: (1) seldom is this action initiated primarily for the direct benefit of wildlife, (2) the action may be at the direct expense of wildlife, (3) there has been little to demonstrate that wildlife diseases can be controlled in free-living wild populations, and (4) the role of disease in the population dynamics of wildlife species has not been adequately documented and, as a result, the importance of many diseases has not been ascertained. In addition to knowing better the effects of disease on the population dynamics of wildlife species, it is essential to investigate chemical-microbial and chemical-parasitic interactions. Greater efforts must be made to prevent the introduction of disease into wildlife populations and to control disease when it occurs. Although management of wildlife populations often parallels intensive agricultural operations, knowledge of animal husbandry and associated disease problems in domestic animals has not been adequately utilized. As a result, disease problems are created that might otherwise be avoided or reduced in magnitude. If we are to be successful in controlling diseases of wildlife, each of us must translate his knowledge into forms that will utilize differing viewpoints in the resolution of common problems.

Book chapter↗

Influence of riffle characteristics, surficial geology, and natural barriers on the distribution of the channel darter, Percina copelandi, in the Lake Ontario basin

The channel darter, Percina copelandi, is a small benthic fish with a wide but disjunct distribution across central North America. The development of conservation and recovery strategies for Canadian populations is limited by a lack of knowledge regarding ecology, population size and other factors that affect its distribution and abundance. We sampled five rivers in the Lake Ontario basin to test whether the distribution of P. copelandi reflected riffle habitat characteristics or landscape-scale factors such as surficial geology and natural barriers (waterfalls). At most sites yielding P. copelandi, riffles flowed into deep sand bottomed run or pool habitats. Despite a lack of association with local surficial geology or riffle habitat characteristics, both the upstream limits of P. copelandi occurrence and distribution of suitable habitats reflected the distribution of waterfalls, chutes and bedrock outcroppings. In contrast to P. copelandi, distributions of Etheostoma flabellare, P. caprodes and Rhinichthys cataractae reflected among site differences in riffle habitat. ?? Springer 2005.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

Climate-induced lake drying causes heterogeneous reductions in waterfowl species richness

Context Lake size has declined on breeding grounds for international populations of waterfowl. Objectives Our objectives were to (1) model the relationship between waterfowl species richness and lake size; (2) use the model and trends in lake size to project historical, contemporary, and future richness at 2500+ lakes; (3) evaluate mechanisms for the species–area relationship (SAR); and (4) identify species most vulnerable to shrinking lakes. Methods Monte Carlo simulations of the richness model were used to generate projections. Correlations between richness and both lake size and habitat diversity were compared to identify mechanisms for the SAR. Patterns of nestedness were used to identify vulnerable species. Results Species richness was greatest at lakes that were larger, closer to rivers, had more wetlands along their perimeters and were within 5 km of a large lake. Average richness per lake was projected to decline by 11 % from 1986 to 2050 but was heterogeneous across sub-regions and lakes. Richness in sub-regions with species-rich lakes was projected to remain stable, while richness in the sub-region with species-poor lakes was projected to decline. Lake size had a greater effect on richness than did habitat diversity, suggesting that large lakes have more species because they provide more habitat but not more habitat types. The vulnerability of species to shrinking lakes was related to species rarity rather than foraging guild. Conclusions Our maps of projected changes in species richness and rank-ordered list of species most vulnerable to shrinking lakes can be used to identify targets for conservation or monitoring.

Landscape Ecology↗

Environmental predictors of shrubby cinquefoil ( Dasiphora fruticosa ) habitat and quality as host for Maine’s endangered Clayton’s copper butterfly ( Lycaena dorcas claytoni )

Population size of habitat-specialized butterflies is limited in part by host plant distribution and abundance. Effective conservation for host-specialist species requires knowledge of host-plant habitat conditions and relationships with the specialist species. Clayton’s copper butterfly ( Lycaena dorcas claytoni ) is a Maine state-endangered species that relies exclusively on shrubby cinquefoil ( Dasiphora fruticosa ) as its host. Dasiphora fruticosa occurs in 28 wetlands in Maine, ten of which are occupied by L. d. claytoni. Little is known about environmental conditions that support large, persistent stands of D. fruticosa in Maine. We evaluated the environment (hydrology, pore water and peat nutrients) associated with D. fruticosa distribution, age, and condition in Maine wetlands supporting robust stands of D. fruticosa to compare with L. d. claytoni occurrence. Although dominant water source in D. fruticosa —containing wetlands included both groundwater discharge and surface-flow, D. fruticosa coverage was greater in wetlands with consistent growing season water levels that dropped into or below the root zone by late season, and its distributions within wetlands reflected pore water hydrogen ion and conductivity gradients. Flooding magnitude and duration were greatest during the L.d. claytoni larval feeding period, whereas, mean depth to water table and upwelling increased and were most variable following the L. d. claytoni egg-laying period that precedes D. fruticosa senescence. Oldest sampled shrubs were 37 years, and older shrubs were larger and slower-growing. Encounter rates of L. d. claytoni were greater in wetlands with larger D. fruticosa plants of intermediate age and greater bloom density. Wetland management that combines conditions associated with D. fruticosa abundance (e.g., non-forested, seasonally consistent water levels with high conductivity) and L. d. claytoni occurrence (e.g., drawdown below the root zone following egg-laying, abundant blooms on intermediate-aged D. fruticosa, nearby D. fruticosa -containing wetlands) will aid L. d. claytoni conservation.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗

A global ecological signal of extinction risk in marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii)

Many marine fish species are experiencing population declines, but their extinction risk profiles are largely understudied in comparison to their terrestrial vertebrate counterparts. Selective extinction of marine fish species may result in rapid alteration of the structure and function of ocean ecosystems. In this study, we compiled an ecological trait dataset for 8,185 species of marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii) from FishBase and used phylogenetic generalized linear models to examine which ecological traits are associated with increased extinction risk, based on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List. We also assessed which threat types may be driving these species toward greater extinction risk and whether threatened species face a greater average number of threat types than non-threatened species. We found that larger body size and/or fishes with life histories involving movement between marine, brackish, and freshwater environments are associated with elevated extinction risk. Commercial harvesting threatens the greatest number of species, followed by pollution, development, and then climate change. We also found that threatened species, on average, face a significantly greater number of threat types than non-threatened species. These results can be used by resource managers to help address the heightened extinction risk patterns we found.

Cambridge Prisms: Extinction↗

Home range and movements of feral cats on Mauna Kea, Hawai'i

Feral cats Felis catus in dry subalpine woodland of Mauna Kea, Hawai?i, live in low density and exhibit some of the largest reported home ranges in the literature. While 95% fixed kernel home range estimates for three females averaged 772 ha, four males averaged 1 418 ha, and one male maintained a home range of 2 050 ha. Mean daily movement rates between sexes overlapped widely and did not differ significantly (P = 0.083). Log-transformed 95% kernel home ranges for males were significantly larger than those of females (P = 0.024), but 25% kernel home ranges for females were larger than those of males (P = 0.017). Moreover, log-transformed home ranges of males were also significantly larger than those of females in this and seven other studies from the Pacific region (P = 0.044). Feral cats present a major threat to endangered Hawaiian birds, but knowledge of their ecology can be used for management by optimizing trap spacing and creating buffer zones around conservation areas.

Hawaii↗

Estimation of avian population sizes and species richness across a boreal landscape in Alaska

We studied the distribution of birds breeding within five ecological landforms in Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve, a 10,194-km 2 roadless conservation unit on the Alaska-Canada border in the boreal forest zone. Passerines dominated the avifauna numerically, comprising 97% of individuals surveyed but less than half of the 115 species recorded in the Preserve. We used distance-sampling and discrete-removal models to estimate detection probabilities, densities, and population sizes across the Preserve for 23 species of migrant passerines and five species of resident passerines. Yellow-rumped Warblers (Dendroica coronata) and Dark-eyed Juncos (Junco hyemalis) were the most abundant species, together accounting for 41% of the migrant passerine populations estimated. White-winged Crossbills (Loxia leucoptera), Boreal Chickadees (Poecile hudsonica), and Gray Jays (Perisoreus canadensis) were the most abundant residents. Species richness was greatest in the Floodplain/Terrace landform flanking the Yukon River but densities were highest in the Subalpine landform. Species composition was related to past glacial history and current physiography of the region and differed notably from other areas of the northwestern boreal forest. Point-transect surveys, augmented with auxiliary observations, were well suited to sampling the largely passerine avifauna across this rugged landscape and could be used across the boreal forest region to monitor changes in northern bird distribution and abundance. ?? 2009 The Wilson Ornithological Society.

Wilson Journal of Ornithology↗

Ohi'a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha): A most resilient and persistent foundation species in Hawaiian forests

Metrosideros polymorpha (‘ōhi‘a, ‘ōhi‘a lehua) is an important foundation species in Hawaiian forest habitats. The genus originated in New Zealand and was dispersed to the Hawaiian archipelago approximately 3.9 million years ago. It evolved into five distinct endemic species and one of these, Metrosideros polymorpha , further differentiated into eight varieties across what are now the main Hawaiian Islands. ‘Ōhi‘a is a tree that has great significance in indigenous Hawaiian culture. It is considered a physical manifestation of several principal Hawaiian deities, and serves a broad range of uses in Hawaiian material culture. It occupies a wide diversity of habitats, extending from sea level to over 2,200 m elevation, occupying habitats that range from extremely wet to dry rainfall zones. It is the dominant or co-dominant tree species in wet and mesic forests and is also one of the first woody species to become established on young lava flows. Although ‘ōhi‘a is a dominant forest tree it also exhibits many characteristics of a pioneer species. ‘Ōhi‘a provides the matrix for a wide diversity of endemic plants and animals found in these habitats and functions as the primary vegetation cover on native Hawaiian watersheds, facilitating groundwater recharge and regulating surface runoff. ‘Ōhi‘a has shown remarkable resilience by recolonizing forests that were opened up by disturbance, such as the widespread ‘ōhi‘a canopy dieback that occurred on East Maui in the 1900s and on the east side of the Island of Hawai‘i in the 1970s. Several human-related conditions threaten the continued stability of Hawaii’s native ecosystems, including invasive plants, plant diseases, introduced animals, and changing climate. The research and conservation legacy of Dr. Dieter Mueller-Dombois helped to expand our knowledge of the ecology and importance of ‘ōhi‘a forests, and to increase awareness and appreciation of the remarkable Hawaiian ecosystems that are unique to the world.

Hawaii↗

Predicting multi-species foraging hotspots for marine turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

Quantifying the distribution of animals and identifying underlying characteristics that define suitable habitat are essential for effective conservation of free-ranging species. Prioritizing areas for conservation is important in managing a geographic extent that has a high level of disturbance and limited conservation resources. We examined the potential use of a species distribution model ensemble for multi-species conservation in marine habitats. Using satellite telemetry locations during foraging as input data, and ensemble ecological niche models, we predicted foraging areas for 2 nesting marine turtle species within the Gulf of Mexico (GoM): Kemp’s ridley Lepidochelys kempii (n = 63) and loggerhead Caretta caretta (n = 63). We considered 7 geophysical, biological, and climatic variables and compared contributing factors for each species’ foraging habitat selection. For both species, predicted suitable foraging habitats encompassed large areas along the GoM coast, but only intersected with each other in relatively small areas. Highly parameterized models resulted in overall greater fits, suggesting that multiple factors influence habitat selection by these species. Model validation results were mixed: cross-validation resulted in high prediction accuracy for both species, but an evaluation against independent data resulted in a low omission rate (5%) for Kemp’s ridleys and a high omission rate (72%) for loggerheads. The relatively small intersection of model-predicted foraging areas for these 2 species within the study area may indicate possible niche differentiations. The high omission rate for loggerheads indicates our samples likely underrepresent the population and illustrates the challenges in predicting suitable foraging extents for species that make dynamic movements and have greater individual variability.

Gulf of Mexico↗