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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Climate change impacts on the temperature and magnitude of groundwater discharge from shallow, unconfined aquifers

Cold groundwater discharge to streams and rivers can provide critical thermal refuge for threatened salmonids and other aquatic species during warm summer periods. Climate change may influence groundwater temperature and flow rates, which may in turn impact riverine ecosystems. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the timing, magnitude, and temperature of groundwater discharge from small, unconfined aquifers that undergo seasonal freezing and thawing. Seven downscaled climate scenarios for 2046–2065 were utilized to drive surficial water and energy balance models (HELP3 and ForHyM2) to obtain future projections for daily ground surface temperature and groundwater recharge. These future surface conditions were then applied as boundary conditions to drive subsurface simulations of variably saturated groundwater flow and energy transport. The subsurface simulations were performed with the U.S. Geological Survey finite element model SUTRA that was recently modified to include the dynamic freeze-thaw process. The SUTRA simulations indicate a potential rise in the magnitude (up to 34%) and temperature (up to 3.6°C) of groundwater discharge to the adjacent river during the summer months due to projected increases in air temperature and precipitation. The thermal response of groundwater to climate change is shown to be strongly dependent on the aquifer dimensions. Thus, the simulations demonstrate that the thermal sensitivity of aquifers and baseflow-dominated streams to decadal climate change may be more complex than previously thought. Furthermore, the results indicate that the probability of exceeding critical temperature thresholds within groundwater-sourced thermal refugia may significantly increase under the most extreme climate scenarios.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2018

Stream fish colonization but not persistence varies regionally across a large North American river basin

Many species have distributions that span distinctly different physiographic regions, and effective conservation of such taxa will require a full accounting of all factors that potentially influence populations. Ecologists recognize effects of physiographic differences in topography, geology and climate on local habitat configurations, and thus the relevance of landscape heterogeneity to species distributions and abundances. However, research is lacking that examines how physiography affects the processes underlying metapopulation dynamics. We used data describing occupancy dynamics of stream fishes to evaluate evidence that physiography influences rates at which individual taxa persist in or colonize stream reaches under different flow conditions. Using periodic survey data from a stream fish assemblage in a large river basin that encompasses multiple physiographic regions, we fit multi-species dynamic occupancy models. Our modeling results suggested that stream fish colonization but not persistence was strongly governed by physiography, with estimated colonization rates considerably higher in Coastal Plain streams than in Piedmont and Blue Ridge systems. Like colonization, persistence was positively related to an index of stream flow magnitude, but the relationship between flow and persistence did not depend on physiography. Understanding the relative importance of colonization and persistence, and how one or both processes may change across the landscape, is critical information for the conservation of broadly distributed taxa, and conservation strategies explicitly accounting for spatial variation in these processes are likely to be more successful for such taxa.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2012

Peat accumulation in drained thermokarst lake basins in continuous, ice-rich permafrost, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Thermokarst lakes and peat-accumulating drained lake basins cover a substantial portion of Arctic lowland landscapes, yet the role of thermokarst lake drainage and ensuing peat formation in landscape-scale carbon (C) budgets remains understudied. Here we use measurements of terrestrial peat thickness, bulk density, organic matter content, and basal radiocarbon age from permafrost cores, soil pits, and exposures in vegetated, drained lake basins to characterize regional lake drainage chronology, C accumulation rates, and the role of thermokarst-lake cycling in carbon dynamics throughout the Holocene on the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Most detectable lake drainage events occurred within the last 4,000 years with the highest drainage frequency during the medieval climate anomaly. Peat accumulation rates were highest in young (50–500 years) drained lake basins (35.2 g C m −2 yr −1 ) and decreased exponentially with time since drainage to 9 g C m −2 yr −1 in the oldest basins. Spatial analyses of terrestrial peat depth, basal peat radiocarbon ages, basin geomorphology, and satellite-derived land surface properties (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF)) from Landsat satellite data revealed significant relationships between peat thickness and mean basin NDVI or MNF. By upscaling observed relationships, we infer that drained thermokarst lake basins, covering 391 km 2 (76%) of the 515 km 2 study region, store 6.4–6.6 Tg organic C in drained lake basin terrestrial peat. Peat accumulation in drained lake basins likely serves to offset greenhouse gas release from thermokarst-impacted landscapes and should be incorporated in landscape-scale C budgets.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Robust geographical determinants of infection prevalence and a contrasting latitudinal diversity gradient for haemosporidian parasites in Western Palearctic birds

Identifying robust environmental predictors of infection probability is central to forecasting and mitigating the ongoing impacts of climate change on vector‐borne disease threats. We applied phylogenetic hierarchical models to a data set of 2,171 Western Palearctic individual birds from 47 species to determine how climate and landscape variation influence infection probability for three genera of haemosporidian blood parasites ( Haemoproteus , Leucocytozoon , and Plasmodium ). Our comparative models found compelling evidence that birds in areas with higher vegetation density (captured by the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) had higher likelihoods of carrying parasite infection. Magnitudes of this relationship were remarkably similar across parasite genera considering that these parasites use different arthropod vectors and are widely presumed to be epidemiologically distinct. However, we also uncovered key differences among genera that highlighted complexities in their climate responses. In particular, prevalences of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium showed strong but contrasting relationships with winter temperatures, supporting mounting evidence that winter warming is a key environmental filter impacting the dynamics of host‐parasite interactions. Parasite phylogenetic community diversities demonstrated a clear but contrasting latitudinal gradient, with Haemoproteus diversity increasing towards the equator and Leucocytozoon diversity increasing towards the poles. Haemoproteus diversity also increased in regions with higher vegetation density, supporting our evidence that summer vegetation density is important for structuring the distributions of these parasites. Ongoing variation in winter temperatures and vegetation characteristics will probably have far‐reaching consequences for the transmission and spread of vector‐borne diseases.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2019

Predicting paleoclimate from compositional data using multivariate Gaussian process inverse prediction

Multivariate compositional count data arise in many applications including ecology, microbiology, genetics and paleoclimate. A frequent question in the analysis of multivariate compositional count data is what underlying values of a covariate(s) give rise to the observed composition. Learning the relationship between covariates and the compositional count allows for inverse prediction of unobserved covariates given compositional count observations. Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for modeling functional responses with respect to a covariate without assuming a functional form. Many scientific disciplines use Gaussian process approximations to improve prediction and make inference on latent processes and parameters. When prediction is desired on unobserved covariates given realizations of the response variable, this is called inverse prediction. Because inverse prediction is often mathematically and computationally challenging, predicting unobserved covariates often requires fitting models that are different from the hypothesized generative model. We present a novel computational framework that allows for efficient inverse prediction using a Gaussian process approximation to generative models. Our framework enables scientific learning about how the latent processes co-vary with respect to covariates while simultaneously providing predictions of missing covariates. The proposed framework is capable of efficiently exploring the high dimensional, multi-modal latent spaces that arise in the inverse problem. To demonstrate flexibility, we apply our method in a generalized linear model framework to predict latent climate states given multivariate count data. Based on cross-validation, our model has predictive skill competitive with current methods while simultaneously providing formal, statistical inference on the underlying community dynamics of the biological system previously not available.

Annals of Applied Statistics↗
USGS2016

Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA analyses of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos canadensis) from three areas in western North America; initial results and conservation implications

Understanding the genetics of a population is a critical component of developing conservation strategies. We used archived tissue samples from golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos canadensis ) in three geographic regions of western North America to conduct a preliminary study of the genetics of the North American subspecies, and to provide data for United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) decision-making for golden eagle management. We used a combination of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop sequences and 16 nuclear DNA (nDNA) microsatellite loci to investigate the extent of gene flow among our sampling areas in Idaho, California and Alaska and to determine if we could distinguish birds from the different geographic regions based on their genetic profiles. Our results indicate high genetic diversity, low genetic structure and high connectivity. Nuclear DNA Fst values between Idaho and California were low but significantly different from zero (0.026). Bayesian clustering methods indicated a single population, and we were unable to distinguish summer breeding residents from different regions. Results of the mtDNA AMOVA showed that most of the haplotype variation (97%) was within the geographic populations while 3% variation was partitioned among them. One haplotype was common to all three areas. One region-specific haplotype was detected in California and one in Idaho, but additional sampling is required to determine if these haplotypes are unique to those geographic areas or a sampling artifact. We discuss potential sources of the high gene flow for this species including natal and breeding dispersal, floaters, and changes in migratory behavior as a result of environmental factors such as climate change and habitat alteration. Our preliminary findings can help inform the USFWS in development of golden eagle management strategies and provide a basis for additional research into the complex dynamics of the North American subspecies.

Alaska, California, Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2016

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 ). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr −1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO 2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2024

Asymmetric impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for inland lake fishes

Climate change is altering the thermal habitats of freshwater fish species. We analyze modeled daily temperature profiles from 12,688 lakes in the US to track changes in thermal habitat of 60 lake fish species from different thermal guilds during 1980-2021. We quantify changes in each species’ preferred days, defined as the number of days per year when a lake contains the species’ preferred temperature. We find that cooler-water species are losing preferred days more rapidly than warmer-water species are gaining them. This asymmetric impact cannot be attributed to differences in geographic distribution among species; instead, it is linked to the seasonal dynamics of lake temperatures and increased thermal homogenization of the water column. The potential advantages of an increase in warmer-water species may not fully compensate for the losses in cooler-water species as warming continues, emphasizing the importance of mitigating climate change to support effective freshwater fisheries management.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minne↗
USGS2023

Resilience of riparian vegetation productivity to early 21st century drought in northern California, USA

Drought and intensive land use can interact as stressors on riparian vegetation, especially along rivers flowing through seasonally dry landscapes. Knowledge of past riparian vegetation response to drought and land use change can provide land managers with a better understanding of changes induced by upstream management actions, climate change, and chronic stressors. To investigate the response of riparian vegetation productivity to drought and land use, we developed a 21-year time series (2000–2020) of growing season vegetation dynamics using near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIR V ) derived from satellite data across 30 watershed subbasins that drain into the San Francisco Bay Delta in central California, USA. We observed a strong response of riparian vegetation to drought, but rapid recovery and very few long-term declines in productivity. At a local level, vegetation communities' response to drought and post-drought productivity dynamics were highly variable across biophysical settings and land use gradients. Most of the riparian areas with long-term declines in NIR V were located in the lower elevation Coast Range on the western side of the study area where there is little to no water engineering or agricultural irrigation runoff to subsidize riparian vegetation. Riparian areas with the greatest long-term increase were along rivers draining the higher elevation Sierra Nevada range to the east. Our results suggest that river systems with a high proportion of water originating as snowmelt may be more buffered against long-term drought-driven declines in productivity than those dependent exclusively on winter rainfall. The long-term increase in NIR V in the vast majority of riparian areas within our study area may also have been driven in part by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, which have been shown to increase plant water use efficiency.

California↗
USGS2016

Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2019

Barred Owls reduce occupancy and breeding propensity of Northern Spotted Owl in a Washington old-growth forest

Protected lands like national parks are important refuges for threatened and endangered species as environmental pressures on wildlife and their habitats increase. The Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ), a species designated as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, occurs on public lands throughout the western United States including Mount Rainier National Park (MRNP), Washington. With virtually no history of timber harvest or large forest disturbance within MRNP boundaries since the park’s creation in 1899, MRNP provides an ideal place to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and invasive Barred Owls ( Strix varia ) on the Northern Spotted Owl. We used a multi-state, multi-season occupancy model to investigate how Northern Spotted Owl occupancy dynamics and breeding propensity are related to the presence of Barred Owls, local and regional weather, and habitat characteristics at MRNP from 1997 to 2016. Historical occupancy of Northern Spotted Owl breeding territories in MRNP has declined by 50% in the last 20 yr, and territory occupancy by breeding Northern Spotted Owls also decreased, reaching a low of 25% in 2016. Occupancy rates were higher on territories with steeper terrain and breeding rates were lower when Barred Owls were detected within historical territories. Our results also indicated that breeding propensity was higher when early nesting season temperatures during March and April were higher. In addition, the ability to detect breeding Northern Spotted Owls decreased when Barred Owls were present in the territory. Habitat variables from LiDAR were not correlated with Northern Spotted Owl occupancy dynamics, likely reflecting the dominance of old-growth forest in this protected park. This study illustrates the strong relationship between Barred Owls and Northern Spotted Owl demographics and breeding site selection in a landscape where habitat loss by timber harvest and fire has not occurred.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish

Climate change affects seasonal weather patterns, but little is known about the relative importance of seasonal weather patterns on animal population vital rates. Even when such information exists, data are typically only available from intensive fieldwork (e.g., mark–recapture studies) at a limited spatial extent. Here, we investigated effects of seasonal air temperature and precipitation (fall, winter, and spring) on survival and recruitment of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) at a broad spatial scale using a novel stage‐structured population model. The data were a 15‐year record of brook trout abundance from 72 sites distributed across a 170‐km‐long mountain range in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Population vital rates responded differently to weather and site‐specific conditions. Specifically, young‐of‐year survival was most strongly affected by spring temperature, adult survival by elevation and per‐capita recruitment by winter precipitation. Low fall precipitation and high winter precipitation, the latter of which is predicted to increase under climate change for the study region, had the strongest negative effects on trout populations. Simulations show that trout abundance could be greatly reduced under constant high winter precipitation, consistent with the expected effects of gravel‐scouring flows on eggs and newly hatched individuals. However, high‐elevation sites would be less vulnerable to local extinction because they supported higher adult survival. Furthermore, the majority of brook trout populations are projected to persist if high winter precipitation occurs only intermittently (≤3 of 5 years) due to density‐dependent recruitment. Variable drivers of vital rates should be commonly found in animal populations characterized by ontogenetic changes in habitat, and such stage‐structured effects may increase population persistence to changing climate by not affecting all life stages simultaneously. Yet, our results also demonstrate that weather patterns during seemingly less consequential seasons (e.g., winter precipitation) can have major impacts on animal population dynamics.

Virginia↗
USGS2016

Multiple mortality events in bats: a global review

Despite conservation concerns for many species of bats, factors causing mortality in bats have not been reviewed since 1970. Here, we review and qualitatively describe trends in the occurrence and apparent causes of multiple mortality events (MMEs) in bats around the world. We compiled a database of MMEs, defined as cases in which ≥ 10 dead bats were counted or estimated at a specific location within a maximum timescale of a year, and more typically within a few days or a season. We tabulated 1180 MMEs within nine categories. Prior to 2000, intentional killing by humans caused the greatest proportion of MMEs in bats. In North America and Europe, people typically killed bats because they were perceived as nuisances. Intentional killing occurred in South America for vampire bat control, in Asia and Australia for fruit depredation control, and in Africa and Asia for human food. Biotic factors, accidents, and natural abiotic factors were also important historically. Chemical contaminants were confirmed causes of MMEs in North America, Europe, and in islands. Viral and bacterial diseases ranked low as causes of MMEs in bats. Two factors led to a major shift in causes of MMEs in bats at around 2000: the global increase of industrial wind-power facilities and the outbreak of white-nose syndrome in North America. Collisions with wind turbines and white-nose syndrome are now the leading causes of reported MMEs in bats. Collectively, over half of all reported MMEs were of anthropogenic origin. The documented occurrence of MMEs in bats due to abiotic factors such as intense storms, flooding, heat waves, and drought is likely to increase in the future with climate change. Coupled with the chronic threats of roosting and foraging habitat loss, increasing mortality through MMEs is unlikely to be compensated for, given the need for high survival in the dynamics of bat populations.

Mammal Review↗
USGS2017

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in a changing Arctic

The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) is a candidate to be listed as an endangered species under United States law, in part, because of climate change‐related concerns. While the population was known to be declining in the 1980s and 1990s, its recent status has not been determined. We developed Bayesian models of walrus population dynamics to assess the population by synthesizing information on population sizes, age structures, reproductive rates, and harvests for 1974–2015. Candidate models allowed for temporal variation in some or all vital rates, as well as density dependence or density independence in reproduction and calf survival. All selected models indicated that the population underwent a multidecade decline, which began moderating in the 1990s, and that annual reproductive rate and natural calf survival rates rose over time in a density‐dependent manner. However, selected models were equivocal regarding whether the natural juvenile survival rate was constant or decreasing over time. Depending on whether juvenile survival decreased after 1998, the population growth rate either increased during 1999–2015 or stabilized at a lesser level of decline than seen in the 1980s. The probability that the population was still declining in 2015 ranged from 45% to 87%.

Marine Mammal Science↗
USGS2018

Dynamic minimum set problem for reserve design: Heuristic solutions for large problems

Conversion of wild habitats to human dominated landscape is a major cause of biodiversity loss. An approach to mitigate the impact of habitat loss consists of designating reserves where habitat is preserved and managed. Determining the most valuable areas to preserve in a landscape is called the reserve design problem. There exists several possible formulations of the reserve design problem, depending on the objectives and the constraints. In this article, we considered the dynamic problem of designing a reserve that contains a desired area of several key habitats. The dynamic case implies that the reserve cannot be designed in one time step, due to budget constraints, and that habitats can be lost before they are reserved, due for example to climate change or human development. We proposed two heuristics strategies that can be used to select sites to reserve each year for large reserve design problem. The first heuristic is a combination of the Marxan and site-ordering algorithms and the second heuristic is an augmented version of the common naive myopic heuristic. We evaluated the strategies on several simulated examples and showed that the augmented greedy heuristic is particularly interesting when some of the habitats to protect are particularly threatened and/or the compactness of the network is accounted for.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2020

Analyses on subpopulation abundance and annual number of maternal dens for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska

The long-term persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) is threatened by sea-ice loss due to climate change, which is concurrently providing an opportunity in the Arctic for increased anthropogenic activities including natural resource extraction. Mitigating the risk of those activities, which can adversely affect the population dynamics of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation, is an emerging challenge as polar bears become more reliant on land and come into more frequent contact with humans. The Marine Mammal Protection Act and Endangered Species Act require the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to determine whether industrial activities will have a negligible impact on the SBS subpopulation. Information important to making that determination includes estimates of subpopulation abundance and the number of maternal dens likely to be present in areas where industrial activities occur. We analyzed mark-recapture data collected from SBS polar bears sampled in Alaska during 2001–16 using multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Estimated survival rates were relatively high during 2001–03, lower during 2004–08, then higher during 2009–15 except for 2012. Estimated abundance in the Alaska part of the SBS was consistent with the estimated survival rates, declining from about 1,300 bears in 2003 to 525 bears in 2006 and then remaining generally stable during 2006–15. The point estimate for the Alaska part of the SBS in 2015, the last year in which abundance could be estimated, was 573 bears (95-percent credible interval = 232, 1,140 bears). To estimate the expected number of terrestrial dens likely to be present in a given region in a given year, we used a Bayesian modeling approach based on calculations derived from SBS demographic and denning data. We estimated that the entire SBS subpopulation produced 123 dens per year (median; 95-percent credible interval = 69, 198 dens), 66 (median; 95-percent credible interval = 35, 110 dens) of which were land-based. Most land-based dens were located between the Colville and Canning Rivers (which includes the Prudhoe Bay-Kuparuk industrial footprint), followed by the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS1997

Relations of Tualatin River water temperatures to natural and human-caused factors

Aquatic research has long shown that the survival of cold-water fish, such as salmon and trout, decreases markedly as water temperatures increase above a critical threshold, particularly during sensitive life stages of the fish. In an effort to improve the overall health of aquatic ecosystems, the State of Oregon in 1996 adopted a maximum water-temperature standard of 17.8 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit), based on a 7-day moving average of daily maximum temperatures, for most water bodies in the State. Anthropogenic activities are not permitted to raise the temperature of a water body above this level. In the Tualatin River, a tributary of the Willamette River located in northwestern Oregon, water temperatures periodically surpass this threshold during the low-flow summer and fall months.An investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey quantified existing seasonal, diel, and spatial patterns of water temperatures in the main stem of the river, assessed the relation of water temperatures to natural climatic conditions and anthropogenic factors (such as wastewater-treatment-plant effluent and modification of riparian shading), and assessed the impact of various flow management practices on stream temperatures. Half-hourly temperature measurements were recorded at 13 monitoring sites from river mile (RM) 63.9 to RM 3.4 from May to November of 1994. Four synoptic water- temperature surveys also were conducted in the upstream and downstream vicinities of two wastewater-treatment-plant outfalls. Temperature and streamflow time-series data were used to calibrate two dynamic-flow heat-transfer models, DAFLOW-BLTM (RM 63.9-38.4) and CE-QUAL-W2 (RM 38.4-3.4). Simulations from the models provided a basis for approximating 'natural' historical temperature patterns, performing effluent and riparian-shading sensitivity analyses, and evaluating mitigation management scenarios under 1994 climatic conditions. Findings from the investigation included (1) under 'natural' conditions the temperature of the river would exceed the State standard of 17.8 degrees Celsius at many locations during the low-flow season, (2) current operation of wastewater-treatment plants increases the temperature of the river downstream of the plants under low-flow conditions, (3) river temperature is significantly affected by riparian shade variations along both the tributaries and the main stem, (4) flow releases during the low-flow season from the Henry Hagg Lake reservoir decrease the river temperature in the upper section, and (5) removal of a low diversion dam at RM 3.4 would slightly decrease temperatures below RM 10.0.

Oregon↗
USGS2025

Effects of climate change on Midwestern ecosystems: Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland

The Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland ecosystem may be increasingly shaped by intensifying drought and shifting seasonality. Rising temperatures and more variable precipitation, marked by longer dry spells, are projected to increase evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficits, and yield more frequent drought. At the same time, warming temperatures are projected to advance spring onset and extend the growing season. Drought may alter habitat structure by accelerating soil erosion, disrupting nutrient cycling, increasing physiological stress on plants, and reducing productivity. These changes are expected to shift community composition toward species adapted to water limitation and fluctuating resources, reducing much of the herbaceous cover that characterizes this ecosystem. Seasonal shifts may restructure habitat by altering phenology and f lowering dynamics, potentially increasing productivity but also heightening the risk of late-season frost damage. Community composition is expected to shift toward early-emerging species, particularly coolseason (C3) grasses, and species with phenological flexibility. Altered phenology may also lead to mismatches between plants and pollinators and increase pollinator competition at the beginning and end of the growing season, with potential consequences for reproduction. Although these overarching stressors affect the entire ecosystem, their specific impacts likely vary with local habitat conditions. In the Central and Northern Tallgrass Prairie, which are historically firemaintained habitats dominated by a mix of warm-season (C4) and cool-season (C3) grasses and forbs, climate change may shift community composition by favoring deep-rooted forbs and established shrubs while displacing shallow-rooted species, including many native grasses. These changes, especially in the absence of fire, may promote woody encroachment and drive long-term community reassembly. In the Central Interior Acidic Open Glade and Barrens, characterized by shallow, drought-prone soils, climate change may reinforce xeric assemblages and reduce the abundance of mesic species. In the absence of f ire, shrubs rather than larger woody species, are more likely to increase, as water limitations constrain the establishment of trees. In the Eastern North American Ruderal Meadow and Shrubland, which lack native species richness and structural stability, disturbance-tolerant invaders may increasingly dominate. Drought and earlier springs are expected to reinforce early successional dynamics and further constrain the restoration potential of these already degraded habitats. Across the region, invasive species, herbivory, and microbial and fungal communities are also expected to respond to climate change. Invasive plants with ruderal traits and flexible phenologies are likely to benefit from drought-driven disturbance, post-drought resource pulses, and longer, earlier growing seasons. These species often germinate and flower earlier than natives, gaining priority access to resources as seasonal timing shifts. Herbivory by increasing white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations is expected to intensify, particularly during drought, when plant defenses are weakened, and during extended growing seasons, which prolong forage availability. This selective browsing may contribute to declines in native forbs while indirectly promoting non-native grasses. Microbial and fungal communities, like plant communities, are likely vulnerable to both drought and shifting seasonality. Reduced soil moisture may suppress microbial activity and decomposition, while shifts in fungal community composition, particularly declines in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, may impair plant drought tolerance. Adaptation strategies for the Central and Eastern North American Grassland and Shrubland may require managers to anticipate and respond to these changes through both resistance-based approaches, such as restoring fire regimes and reinforcing native species dominance, and acceptance of some potential transitions, such as facilitating drought-tolerant and phenologically flexible species establishment and adjusting fire regimes to align with altered phenology.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗