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Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood. We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future. Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants. Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect. Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall. Synthesis . Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Journal of Ecology↗

Early Holocene change in atmospheric circulation in the Northern Great Plains: An upstream view of the 8.2 ka cold event

Elk Lake, in northwestern Minnesota, contains numerous proxy records of climatic and environmental change contained in varved sediments with annual resolution for the last 10,000 years. These proxies show that about 8200 calendar years ago (8.2 cal. ka; 7300 radiocarbon years) Elk Lake went from a well-stratified lake that was wind-protected in a boreal forest to a well-mixed lake in open prairie savanna receiving northwesterly wind-blown dust, probably from the dry floor of Lake Agassiz. This change in climate marks the initiation of the widely recognized mid-Holocene “altithermal” in central North America. The coincidence of this change with the so-called 8.2 cal. ka cold event, recognized in ice-core and other records from the circum-North Atlantic, and thought by some to be caused by catastrophic discharge of freshwater from proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, suggests that the two “events” might be related. Our interpretation of the Elk Lake proxy records, and of other records from less accurately dated sites, suggests that change in climate over North America was the result of a fundamental change in atmospheric circulation in response to marked changes in the relative proportions of land, water, and, especially, glacial ice in North America during the early Holocene. This change in circulation probably post-dates the final drainage of proglacial lakes along the southern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet, and may have produced a minor perturbation in climate over Greenland that resulted in a brief cold pulse detected in ice cores.

Minnesota↗

Geology and vertebrate paleontology of Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument, Nevada, USA

Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument (TUSK) preserves 22,650 acres of the upper Las Vegas Wash in the northern Las Vegas Valley, Nevada, USA. TUSK is home to extensive and stratigraphically complex groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits, called the Las Vegas Formation, which represent springs and desert wetlands that covered much of the valley during the late Quaternary. The GWD deposits record hydrologic changes that occurred here in a dynamic and temporally congruent response to abrupt climatic oscillations over the last ~300 ka (thousands of years). The deposits also entomb the Tule Springs Local Fauna (TSLF), one of the most significant late Pleistocene (Rancholabrean) vertebrate assemblages in the American Southwest. The TSLF is both prolific and diverse, and includes a large mammal assemblage dominated by Mammuthus columbi and Camelops hesternus. Two and possibly three distinct species of Equus, two species of Bison, Panthera atrox, Smilodon fatalis, Canis dirus, Megalonyx jeffersonii, and Nothrotheriops shastensis are also present, and newly recognized faunal components include micromammals, amphibians, snakes, and birds. Invertebrates, plant macrofossils, and pollen also occur in the deposits and provide important and complementary paleoenvironmental information. This field compendium highlights some of the classic stratigraphic sequences of the Las Vegas Formation within TUSK, emphasizes the significant hydrologic changes that occurred in the area during the recent geologic past, and examines the subsequent and repeated effect of rapid climate change on the local desert wetland ecosystem.

Nevada↗

The Buck Creek-Boreas River Adirondack Watershed Monitoring Program

The Buck Creek-Boreas River Adirondack Watershed Monitoring Program, located in the Adirondack region of New York State, United States, combines the monitoring of headwater streams, soils, and vegetation based on a watershed design. Continuous monitoring of six watersheds is linked to the sampling of more than 400 additional Adirondack streams between 2003 and 2019 for chemical analysis of 14 constituents throughout the highly valued Adirondack ecoregion that covers an area of more than 24 000 km2. Much of this landscape has a low capacity for acid buffering, but due to spatial variation in geologic features, some areas are moderately to well acid buffered. This program includes data that extends back to the early 1980s and is ongoing. The focus of the program is on the watersheds of headwater Adirondack streams. Soil, vegetation and stream data are used to better understand environmental effects on the linkages of these ecosystem components. Documentation of the long-term responses of Adirondack ecosystems to environmental disturbances such as acid rain, climate change and other unforeseen factors is the primary objective of the program.

New York↗

Twenty Years After the 1988 Yellowstone Fires: Lessons About Disturbance and Ecosystems

The 1988 Yellowstone fires were among the first in what has proven to be an upsurge in large severe fires in the western USA during the past 20 years. At the time of the fires, little was known about the impacts of such a large severe disturbance because scientists had had few previous opportunities to study such an event. Ecologists predicted short- and long-term effects of the 1988 fires on vegetation, biogeochemistry, primary productivity, wildlife, and aquatic ecosystems based on scientific understanding of the time. Twenty-plus years of subsequent study allow these early predictions to be evaluated. Most of the original predictions were at least partially supported, but some predictions were refuted, others nuanced, and a few postfire phenomena were entirely unexpected. Post-1988 Yellowstone studies catalyzed advances in ecology focused on the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity, contingent influences, and multiple interacting drivers. Post-1988 research in Yellowstone also has changed public perceptions of fire as an ecological process and attitudes towards fire management. Looking ahead to projected climate change and more frequent large fires, the well-documented ecological responses to the 1988 Yellowstone fires provide a foundation for detecting and evaluating potential changes in fire regimes of temperate mountainous regions. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Ecosystems↗

The role of ocean tides on groundwater-surface water exchange in a mangrove-dominated estuary: Shark River Slough, Florida Coastal Everglades, USA

Low-relief environments like the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) have complicated hydrologic systems where surface water and groundwater processes are intimately linked yet hard to separate. Fluid exchange within these lowhydraulic-gradient systems can occur across broad spatial and temporal scales, with variable contributions to material transport and transformation. Identifying and assessing the scales at which these processes operate is essential for accurate evaluations of how these systems contribute to global biogeochemical cycles. The distribution of 222 Rn and 223,224,226 Ra have complex spatial patterns along the Shark River Slough estuary (SRSE), Everglades, FL. High-resolution time-series measurements of 222 Rn activity, salinity, and water level were used to quantify processes affecting radon fluxes out of the mangrove forest over a tidal cycle. Based on field data, tidal pumping through an extensive network of crab burrows in the lower FCE provides the best explanation for the high radon and fluid fluxes. Burrows are irrigated during rising tides when radon and other dissolved constituents are released from the mangrove soil. Flushing efficiency of the burrows—defined as the tidal volume divided by the volume of burrows— estimated for the creek drainage area vary seasonally from 25 (wet season) to 100 % (dry season) in this study. The tidal pumping of the mangrove forest soil acts as a significant vector for exchange between the forest and the estuary. Processes that enhance exchange of O2 and other materials across the sediment-water interface could have a profound impact on the environmental response to larger scale processes such as sea level rise and climate change. Compounding the material budgets of the SRSE are additional inputs from groundwater from the Biscayne Aquifer, which were identified using radium isotopes. Quantification of the deep groundwater component is not obtainable, but isotopic data suggest a more prevalent signal in the dry season. These findings highlight the important role that both tidal- and seasonal-scale forcings play on groundwater movement in low-gradient hydrologic systems.

Florida↗

Geographic and taxonomic variation in adaptive capacity among mountain-dwelling small mammals: implications for conservation status and actions

Contemporary climate change is modifying the distribution, morphology, phenology, physiology, evolution, and interspecific interactions of species. Effects of climate change are mediated not only through the magnitude of change experienced (exposure) and an animal's sensitivity to such changes, but also through the ability of the population or species to adjust to climatic variability and change genetically, behaviorally, or spatially (via its distribution) (i.e., adaptive capacity; AC). Here, we used an attribute-based framework to systematically evaluate and compare the AC of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) against four other mountain-dwelling small mammals of North America to determine whether pikas are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change, as has been postulated. Unlike previous analyses, we also compared AC across O. princeps lineages and across three taxonomic (and thus, spatial) scales. Our results indicate that pikas have markedly lower adaptive capacity than all compared species except bushy-tailed woodrats ( Neotoma cinerea ), and that our assessments of species generally align with earlier characterizations of climate-change vulnerability based on life-history characteristics. Although AC did not differ dramatically among pika lineages, some attributes are likely constraining AC differently in various parts of the geographic range. Comparisons across taxonomic levels of pikas illustrated that, although AC levels were comparable in pika lineages versus range-wide, AC was assessed as lower in interior-Great-Basin pikas than across the entire O.p. schisticeps lineage. We conclude that the comparatively lower AC of pikas results in particularly high susceptibility to anthropogenic climate change, corroborating results from numerous other recent investigations of pikas' climate-responsiveness. Adaptive-capacity evaluations appear useful as a consistent way to identify sentinel species or populations and for conservation prioritization.

Biological Conservation↗

The Tule Springs local fauna: Rancholabrean vertebrates from the Las Vegas Formation, Nevada

A middle to late Pleistocene sedimentary sequence in the upper Las Vegas Wash, north of Las Vegas, Nevada, has yielded the largest open-site Rancholabrean vertebrate fossil assemblage in the southern Great Basin and Mojave Deserts. Recent paleontologic field studies have led to the discovery of hundreds of fossil localities and specimens, greatly extending the geographic and temporal footprint of original investigations in the early 1960s. The significance of the deposits and their entombed fossils led to the preservation of 22,650 acres of the upper Las Vegas Wash as Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument. These discoveries also warrant designation of the assemblage as a local fauna, named for the site of the original paleontologic studies at Tule Springs. The large mammal component of the Tule Springs local fauna is dominated by remains of Mammuthus columbi as well as Camelops hesternus , along with less common remains of Equus (including E. scotti ) and Bison . Large carnivorans including Canis dirus , Smilodon fatalis , and Panthera atrox are also recorded. Micromammals, amphibians, lizards, snakes, birds, invertebrates, plant macrofossils, and pollen also occur in the deposits and provide important and complementary paleoenvironmental information. The fauna occurs within the Las Vegas Formation, an extensive and stratigraphically complex sequence of groundwater discharge deposits that represent a mosaic of desert wetland environments. Radiometric and luminescence dating indicates the sequence spans the last ∼570 ka, and records hydrologic changes in a dynamic and temporally congruent response to northern hemispheric abrupt climatic oscillations. The vertebrate fauna occurs in multiple stratigraphic horizons in this sequence, with ages of the fossils spanning from ∼100 to ∼12.5 ka.

Quaternary International↗

Representing the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in Earth system models

Along coastal interfaces, components of the Earth system interact to regulate ecosystem functions and Earth’s climate. Between the land and ocean, diverse coastal ecosystem types transform, store, and transport material. A dynamic two-way exchange of energy and matter is driven by hydrological and marine processes such as river and groundwater discharge, tides, waves, and storms. Global models lack representation of coastal processes and related feedbacks on Earth’s climate and ecosystems, impeding their predictions of coastal and global response to change. We recommend leveraging existing monitoring networks and regional models to develop and validate global models that include the coastal interface.

Nature Communications↗

Data, age uncertainties and ocean δ 18 O under the spotlight for Ocean2k Phase 2

The oceans make up 71% of the Earth’s surface area and are a major component of the global climate system. They are the world’s primary heat reservoir, and knowledge of the global ocean response to past and present radiative forcing is important for understanding climate change. PAGES’ Ocean2k working group aims to place marine climate of the past century within the context of the previous 2000 years (2k). Phase 1 (2011-2015) focused on constraining the forcing mechanisms most consistent with reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) over the 2k interval (McGregor et al. 2015; Tierney et al. 2015). The 1st Ocean2k workshop assisted in the transition to Ocean2k Phase 2 (2015-2017), with the workshop goal to develop, coordinate and significantly advance community-identified and -driven activities.

Past Global Changes↗

Human and ecosystem health in coastal systems

U.S. coastal economies and communities are facing an unprecedented and growing number of impacts to coastal ecosystems including beach and fishery closures, harmful algal blooms, loss of critical habitat, as well as shoreline damage. This paper synthesizes our present understanding of the dynamics of human and ecosystem health in coastal systems with a focus on the need to better understand nearshore physical process interactions with coastal pollutants and ecosystems (e.g. fate and transport, circulation, depositional environment, climate change). It is organized around two major topical areas and six subtopic areas: 1) Identifying and mitigating coastal pollutants, including fecal pollution, nutrients and harmful algal blooms, and microplastics; and 2) Resilient coastal ecosystems, which focuses on coastal fisheries, shellfish and natural and nature-based features (NNBF). Societal needs and the tools and technologies needed to address them are discussed for each subtopic. Recommendations for scientific research, observations, community engagement, and policies aim to help prioritize future research and investments. A better understanding of coastal physical processes and interactions with coastal pollutants and resilient ecosystems (e.g. fate and transport, circulation, depositional environment, climate change) is a critical need. Other research recommendations include the need to quantify potential threats to human and ecosystem health through accurate risk assessments and to quantify the resulting hazard risk reduction of natural and nature-based features; improve pollutant and ecosystem impacts forecasting by integrating frequent and new data points into existing and novel models; collect environmental data to calibrate and validate models to predict future impacts on coastal ecosystems and their evolution due to anthropogenic stressors (land-based pollution, overfishing, coastal development), climate change, and sea level rise; and develop lower cost and rapid response tools to help coastal managers better respond to pollutant and ecosystem threats.

Shore and Beach↗

The surface elevation table and marker horizon technique: A protocol for measuring wetland elevation dynamics, narrative (Version 2.0)

The National Park Service (NPS), in response to the growing evidence and awareness of the effects of climate change on federal lands, determined that monitoring wetland elevation change is a top priority in North Atlantic Coastal parks (Stevens et al. 2010). As a result, the NPS Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network (NCBN) in collaboration with colleagues from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a protocol for monitoring wetland elevation change and other processes important for determining the viability of wetland communities. Although focused on North Atlantic Coastal parks, this document is applicable to all coastal and inland wetland regions. Wetlands exist within a narrow range of elevation that is influenced by local hydrologic conditions. For tidally influenced coastal wetlands, local hydrologic conditions may be changing as sea levels continue to rise. As sea level rises, coastal wetland systems may either a) build elevation to maintain favorable hydrologic conditions for their survival or b) become increasingly inundated beyond their physiological tolerance resulting in an eventual conversion to open water. A better understanding of these processes will help to determine the present and future viability of coastal wetlands managed by the NPS and can help address measures to ensure these communities exist into the future. This protocol provides the reader with instructions and guidelines on designing a monitoring plan or study to: Quantify elevation change in wetlands with the Surface Elevation Table (SET); understand the processes that influence elevation change, including vertical accretion (SET and Marker Horizon methods); survey the wetland surface and SET mark to a common reference datum to allow for comparing sample stations to each other and to local tidal datums; survey the SET mark to monitor its relative stability; and establish water level equipment to characterize the hydrology and tidal datums for a particular wetland site or sites. The protocol is divided into two documents: The narrative (this document) presents an overview of all aspects of monitoring wetland elevation dynamics, and a document of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) with detailed instructions on the design, installation, data collection, and data management in support of monitoring changes in wetland elevation.

Science Report↗

HESS opinions: Beyond the long-term water balance: Evolving Budyko's supply–demand framework for the Anthropocene towards a global synthesis of land-surface fluxes under natural and human-altered watersheds

Global hydroclimatic conditions have been substantially altered over the past century by anthropogenic influences that arise from the warming global climate and from local/regional anthropogenic disturbances. Traditionally, studies have used coupling of multiple models to understand how land-surface water fluxes vary due to changes in global climatic patterns and local land-use changes. We argue that because the basis of the Budyko framework relies on the supply and demand concept, the framework could be effectively adapted and extended to quantify the role of drivers – both changing climate and local human disturbances – in altering the land-surface response across the globe. We review the Budyko framework, along with these potential extensions, with the intent of furthering the applicability of the framework to emerging hydrologic questions. Challenges in extending the Budyko framework over various spatio-temporal scales and the use of global datasets to evaluate the water balance at these various scales are also discussed.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

The surface elevation table and marker horizon technique: A protocol for monitoring wetland elevation dynamics

The National Park Service, in response to the growing evidence and awareness of the effects of climate change on federal lands, determined that monitoring wetland elevation change is a top priority in North Atlantic Coastal parks (Stevens et al, 2010). As a result, the NPS Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network (NCBN) in collaboration with colleagues from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a protocol for monitoring wetland elevation change and other processes important for determining the viability of wetland communities. Although focused on North Atlantic Coastal parks, this document is applicable to all coastal and inland wetland regions. Wetlands exist within a narrow range of elevation which is influenced by local hydrologic conditions. For coastal wetlands in particular, local hydrologic conditions may be changing as sea levels continue to rise. As sea level rises, coastal wetland systems may respond by building elevation to maintain favorable hydrologic conditions for their survival. This protocol provides the reader with instructions and guidelines on designing a monitoring plan or study to: A) Quantify elevation change in wetlands with the Surface Elevation Table (SET). B) Understand the processes that influence elevation change, including vertical accretion (SET and Marker Horizon methods). C) Survey the wetland surface and SET mark to a common reference datum to allow for comparing sample stations to each other and to local tidal datums. D) Survey the SET mark to monitor its relative stability. This document is divided into two parts; the main body that presents an overview of all aspects of monitoring wetland elevation dynamics, and a collection of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) that describes in detail how to perform or execute each step of the methodology. Detailed instruction on the installation, data collection, data management and analysis are provided in this report and associated SOP’s. A better understanding of these processes will help to determine the present and future viability of coastal wetlands managed by NPS and can help address measures that will ensure these communities exist into the future.

Natural Resource Report↗

The blue carbon reservoirs from Maine to Long Island, NY

In response to the New England Governor and Eastern Canadian Premier 2017 Climate Change Action Plan recommendation to “manage blue carbon resources to preserve and enhance their existing carbon reservoirs,” the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) convened a New England Blue Carbon Inventory Workgroup, comprised of a variety of federal, state, academic, and non-profit organizations to develop an inventory of blue carbon stocks from Maine to Long Island, New York. The Workgroup focused its inventory efforts on salt marshes and eelgrass meadows, leveraging existing habitat maps for geographic data. Existing data for soil organic carbon stocks were then used to calculate blue carbon stock estimates. For visual display purposes, sediment carbon heat maps were developed to highlight areas of greatest carbon accumulation. The habitat distribution and sediment carbon heat maps can be accessed on the Northeast Ocean Data Portal (www.northeastoceandata.org/eelgrass) which is a public source of expert-reviewed, interactive maps and data on the ocean ecosystem, economy, and culture of the northeastern United States and can be used to facilitate decision making by government agencies, tribal nations, businesses, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), academic institutions, and individuals. Based on available data and Workgroup calculations, the target geographic area has an estimated 218,222 acres of eelgrass meadows, salt marsh and saline Phragmites, which are estimated to provide a reservoir of 7,523,568 megagrams of blue carbon, or the equivalent to the annual carbon emissions from over 5,944,024 passenger vehicles. Due to data limitations, the carbon stock estimate represents a mere fraction of the actual quantity of accumulated carbon in these habitats. The findings from the Workgroup’s efforts and the resulting map products can help inform land and coastal management policies, fisheries management, and climate change mitigation practices. Further refinements and expansion of data are needed, including more detailed habitat maps, deeper soil core data for soil organic carbon content, and inclusion of more marine flora into calculations.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Vertebrate paleontology, stratigraphy, and paleohydrology of Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument, Nevada (USA)

Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument (TUSK) preserves 22,650 acres of the upper Las Vegas Wash in the northern Las Vegas Valley (Nevada, USA). TUSK is home to extensive and stratigraphically complex groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits, called the Las Vegas Formation, which represent springs and desert wetlands that covered much of the valley during the late Quaternary. The GWD deposits record hydrologic changes that occurred here in a dynamic and temporally congruent response to abrupt climatic oscillations over the last ~300 ka (thousands of years). The deposits also entomb the Tule Springs Local Fauna (TSLF), one of the most significant late Pleistocene (Rancholabrean) vertebrate assemblages in the American Southwest. The TSLF is both prolific and diverse, and includes a large mammal assemblage dominated by Mammuthus columbi and Camelops hesternus. Two (and possibly three) distinct species of Equus, two species of Bison, Panthera atrox, Smilodon fatalis, Canis dirus, Megalonyx jeffersonii, and Nothrotheriops shastensis are also present, and newly recognized faunal components include micromammals, amphibians, snakes, and birds. Invertebrates, plant macrofossils, and pollen also occur in the deposits and provide important and complementary paleoenvironmental information. This field compendium highlights the faunal assemblage in the classic stratigraphic sequences of the Las Vegas Formation within TUSK, emphasizes the significant hydrologic changes that occurred in the area during the recent geologic past, and examines the subsequent and repeated effect of rapid climate change on the local desert wetland ecosystem.

Nevada↗

Final Report fr critical thresholds and ecosystem services for coastal ecological and human climate adaptation

Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. As the effects of climate change on ecological communities grow, the possibility of crossing tipping points or thresholds of viability increases the potential for rapid and possibly irreversible changes in ecosystems. Therefore, understanding thresholds related to climate change is critical for facilitating conservation and management actions, which could help to prevent more costly and possibly catastrophic effects in the future. As part of a broad effort to synthesize and deliver coastal resilience information through the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), Climate Science Centers, states, and other partners along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, we synthesized existing quantitative threshold information for 45 priority coastal fish, wildlife, and plant species and habitats in response to sea level rise and storm projections. Additional information was synthesized on climate change adaptation actions that can increase the persistence and resilience of species and their habitats and how these actions relate to human community resilience. In addition to two peer-reviewed manuscripts, results from these synthesis efforts were disseminated online through easily accessible, topic-specific web pages in the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool (climateactiontool.org) to make this information more easily accessible to stakeholders across the region. The compilation and dissemination of species and habitat threshold information will help to develop a more comprehensive understanding of how natural systems will respond to climate change and how land and resource management decisions could potentially help these species.

Report↗