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At least 1,027 records · Page 57Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Northeast

The distinct seasonality of the Northeast’s climate supports a diverse natural landscape adapted to the extremes of cold, snowy winters and warm to hot, humid summers. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural resource-dependent industries (see Ch. 10: Ag & Rural, Key Message 4) . The recent dominant trend in precipitation throughout the Northeast has been towards increases in rainfall intensity, with increases in intensity exceeding those in other regions of the contiguous United States. Further increases in rainfall intensity are expected, with increases in total precipitation expected during the winter and spring but with little change in the summer. Monthly precipitation in the Northeast is projected to be about 1 inch greater for December through April by end of century (2070–2100) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). Ocean and coastal ecosystems are being affected by large changes in a variety of climate-related environmental conditions. These ecosystems support fishing and aquaculture, tourism and recreation, and coastal communities. Observed and projected increases in temperature, acidification, storm frequency and intensity, and sea levels are of particular concern for coastal and ocean ecosystems, as well as local communities and their interconnected social and economic systems. Increasing temperatures and changing seasonality on the Northeast Continental Shelf have affected marine organisms and the ecosystem in various ways. The warming trend experienced in the Northeast Continental Shelf has been associated with many fish and invertebrate species moving northward and to greater depths. Because of the diversity of the Northeast’s coastal landscape, the impacts from storms and sea level rise will vary at different locations along the coast. Northeastern cities, with their abundance of concrete and asphalt and relative lack of vegetation, tend to have higher temperatures than surrounding regions due to the urban heat island effect. During extreme heat events, nighttime temperatures in the region’s big cities are generally several degrees higher than surrounding regions, leading to higher risk of heat-related death. Urban areas are at risk for large numbers of evacuated and displaced populations and damaged infrastructure due to both extreme precipitation events and recurrent flooding, potentially requiring significant emergency response efforts and consideration of a long-term commitment to rebuilding and adaptation, and/or support for relocation where needed. Much of the infrastructure in the Northeast, including drainage and sewer systems, flood and storm protection assets, transportation systems, and power supply, is nearing the end of its planned life expectancy. Climate-related disruptions will only exacerbate existing issues with aging infrastructure. Sea level rise has amplified storm impacts in the Northeast (Key Message 2), contributing to higher surges that extend farther inland, as demonstrated in New York City in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Service and resource supply infrastructure in the Northeast is at increasing risk of disruption, resulting in lower quality of life, economic declines, and increased social inequality. Loss of public services affects the capacity of communities to function as administrative and economic centers and triggers disruptions of interconnected supply chains (Ch. 16: International, Key Message 1) . Increases in annual average temperatures across the Northeast range from less than 1°F (0.6°C) in West Virginia to about 3°F (1.7°C) or more in New England since 1901. Although the relative risk of death on very hot days is lower today than it was a few decades ago, heat-related illness and death remain significant public health problems in the Northeast. For example, a study in New York City estimated that in 2013 there were 133 excess deaths due to extreme heat. These projected increases in temperature are expected to lead to substantially more premature deaths, hospital admissions, and emergency department visits across the Northeast. For example, in the Northeast we can expect approximately 650 additional premature deaths per year from extreme heat by the year 2050 under either a lower (RCP4.5) or higher (RCP8.5) scenario and from 960 (under RCP4.5) to 2,300 (under RCP8.5) more premature deaths per year by 2090. Communities, towns, cities, counties, states, and tribes across the Northeast are engaged in efforts to build resilience to environmental challenges and adapt to a changing climate. Developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies in daily practice often occur in collaboration with state and federal agencies (e.g., New Jersey Climate Adaptation Alliance 2017, New York Climate Clearinghouse 2017, Rhode Island STORMTOOLS 2017, EPA 2017, CDC 2015 ). Advances in rural towns, cities, and suburban areas include low-cost adjustments of existing building codes and standards. In coastal areas, partnerships among local communities and federal and state agencies leverage federal adaptation tools and decision support frameworks (for example, NOAA’s Digital Coast, USGS’s Coastal Change Hazards Portal, and New Jersey’s Getting to Resilience). Increasingly, cities and towns across the Northeast are developing or implementing plans for adaptation and resilience in the face of changing climate (e.g., EPA 2017 ). The approaches are designed to maintain and enhance the everyday lives of residents and promote economic development. In some cities, adaptation planning has been used to respond to present and future challenges in the built environment. Regional efforts have recommended changes in design standards when building, replacing, or retrofitting infrastructure to account for a changing climate.

Report↗
USGS1985

An overview of raptor biology and conservation in Latin America

Prior to the last decade, biological studies of raptorial birds in Latin America were, with a few exceptions, nonexistent. For many species all that was known was the general range and habitat type. While the logistical and political challenges are still present, the last few years has seen the opening of a door to what will almost surely be a flood of scientific investigations. From over 40,000 ground miles traveled in 16 countries, field contact with over two thirds of the raptor species, and interviews with conservation officers in 10 nations, I will report on some raptor concentration areas, identify topics for future research, and generalize on raptor conservation issues. I will also briefly mention some recent biological studies and touch briefly on the challenges awaiting the biologist who tries his or her hand at reaping the rewards that are present in abundance for those who engage in raptor studies in Latin America.

Book chapter↗
USGS2005

Estimating population abundance and mapping distribution of wintering sea ducks in coastal waters of the mid-Atlantic

Survey design for wintering scoters (Melanitta sp.) and other sea ducks that occur in offshore waters is challenging because these species have large ranges, are subject to distributional shifts among years and within a season, and can occur in aggregations. Interest in winter sea duck population abundance surveys has grown in recent years. This interest stems from concern over the population status of some sea ducks, limitations of extant breeding waterfowl survey programs in North America and logistical challenges and costs of conducting surveys in northern breeding regions, high winter area philopatry in some species and potential conservation implications, and increasing concern over offshore development and other threats to sea duck wintering habitats. The efficiency and practicality of statistically-rigorous monitoring strategies for mobile, aggregated wintering sea duck populations have not been sufficiently investigated. This study evaluated a 2-phase adaptive stratified strip transect sampling plan to estimate wintering population size of scoters, long-tailed ducks (Clangua hyemalis), and other sea ducks and provide information on distribution. The sampling plan results in an optimal allocation of a fixed sampling effort among offshore strata in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast region. Phase I transect selection probabilities were based on historic distribution and abundance data, while Phase 2 selection probabilities were based on observations made during Phase 1 flights. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection rates. Environmental variables thought to affect detection rates were recorded during the survey and post-stratification and covariate modeling were investigated to reduce the effect of heterogeneity on detection estimation. We assessed cost-precision tradeoffs under a number of fixed-cost sampling scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. We discuss advantages and limitations of this sampling design for estimating wintering sea duck abundance and mapping distribution and suggest improvements for future surveys.

Book chapter↗
USGS2006

Multimodeling: new approaches for linking ecological models

The Everglades region of South Florida presents one of the major natural system management challenges facing the United States. With its assortment of alligators, crocodiles, manatees, panthers, large mixed flocks of wading birds, highly diverse subtropical flora, and sea of sawgrass, the ecosystem is unique in this country (Davis and Ogden 1994). The region is also perhaps the largest human-controlled system on the planet in that the major environmental factor influencing the region is water, and water flows are managed on a daily basis--subject to the vagaries of rainfall--by a massive system of locks, pumps, canals, and levees constructed over the past century. The changes brought about by such control have led to extensive modifications of historical patterns and magnitudes of flow, causing large declines in many native species, extensive changes in nutrient cycling and vegetation across south Florida, and great increases in pollutants such as mercury. Constrained by the conflicting demands of agriculture, urban human populations, and wildlife for control of water resources, and the varying agendas of hosts of government agencies and nongovernmental organizations, there is now an ongoing effort to plan for major changes to the system with expenditure estimates of eight billion dollars or more over the next several decades (USACOE 1999). Carrying out such planning, particularly as it impacts the natural systems of the region, provides one of the major challenges to the new field of computational ecology.

Florida↗
USGS2009

Response to critique by lucas et al. (2009) of paper by Fassett (2009) documenting Paleocene dinosaurs in the San Juan Basin

In this issue of Palaeontologia Electronica Lucas, et al. (2009) question the validity f the Fassett (2009) paper that presented evidence for Paleocene dinosaurs in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado. Their challenges focus primarily on the lithostratigraphy, palynology, and paleomagnetism of the dinosaur-bearing Ojo Alamo Sandstone, shown by Fassett to be of Paleocene age. The lithostratigraphy of the Ojo Alamo is addressed by Lucas et al. (2009) based on detailed studies of outcrops of this formation in two relatively small areas in the southern San Juan Basin where Ojo Alamo dinosaur fossils have been found. When viewed over its 13,000 km2 extent, the Ojo Alamo is seen to be a much more complex formation than these authors recognize, thus their perception and description of the lithostratigraphy of this rock unit is limited and provincial. Fassett (2009) presented a detailed discussion of the palynology of the rocks adjacent to the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) interface in the San Juan Basin, including a 67-page appendix and 25 tables listing the 244 palynomorph species identified from these strata. The Ojo Alamo Sandstone produced 103 palynomorphs from five principal localities including one especially prolific sample set from drill core through K-T strata. Without exception, all samples collected from the Ojo Alamo Sandstone for palynologic analysis were found to contain Paleocene palynomorph assemblages. Lucas et al. challenge only one Ojo Alamo palynomorph assemblage from one of the five areas studied, stating that they were unable to find palynomorph-productive samples at that locality. They submit no new palynologic data that refutes the Paleocene palynologic age of the Ojo Alamo Sandstone. In addressing the paleomagnetism of the Ojo Alamo, these authors dismiss the presence of a critical normal-polarity magnetochron discovered in the lower part of the Ojo Alamo - magnetochron C29n.2n of Fassett (2009) with no evidence to justify this dismissal. This magnetochron has been identified at five localities in the basin, thus its existence seems unquestionable. At the Mesa Portales locality, this normal chron was found in Ojo Alamo strata containing Paleocene palynomorph assemblages verifying its identification as chron C29n. Other minor arguments of Lucas et al. (2009) are also addressed in this paper. In sum, Lucas et al. (2009) present no new data to contradict the data presented in Fassett (2009).

Palaeontologia Electronica↗
USGS2011

A national plan for assisting states, federal agencies, and tribes in managing white-nose syndrome in bats

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a disease responsible for unprecedented mortality in hibernating bats in the northeastern U.S. This previously unrecognized disease has spread very rapidly since its discovery in January 2007, and poses a considerable threat to hibernating bats throughout North America. As WNS spreads, the challenges for understanding and managing the disease continue to increase. Given the escalating complexity of these challenges, a highly coordinated effort is required for State, Federal, and Tribal wildlife agencies, and private partners to respond effectively to WNS and conserve species of bats. The plan proposed herein details the elements that are critical to the investigation and management of WNS, identifies key action items to address stated goals, and outlines the role(s) of agencies and entities involved in this continental effort.

Report↗
USGS2013

Vegetation projections for Wind Cave National Park with three future climate scenarios: Final report in completion of Task Agreement J8W07100052

Introduction The effects of climate change on the natural resources protected by Parks will likely be substantial, but geographically variable, due to local variation in climate trajectories and differences among ecosystems in their vulnerability to climate change. The projections of general circulation models (GCMs) indicate the possible magnitude and direction of future climate change for a region, but the utility of these projections for more local scales, those of individual National Park Service (NPS) units, are more uncertain because the coarse-scale GCMs lack much of the topographic detail that alters local climates. In addition, complex, interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, fire, and herbivores on the vegetation that is the foundational natural resource of many NPS units present challenges in assessing the effects of projected future climates on plant and animal assemblages managed by the NPS. In spring 2009, Wind Cave National Park (WICA) served as a case study in a workshop assessing the use of scenario planning as a tool for park management planning in the face of rapidly changing climate. One outcome of the workshop was the recognized need for quantitative models to better understand the range of possible vegetation changes under different future climates and management decisions. This report addresses this need; it describes our adaptation of a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) to WICA vegetation and the resulting projections of future vegetation under three future climate scenarios and 11 management scenarios determined by Park natural resource managers. Wind Cave National Park lies along a narrow transition zone between the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of the Black Hills and the mixed grass prairie that once extended with few interruptions over the lower, gentler terrain, subject to warmer, drier climate to the east and south of the Park. The location and character of this transition is strongly influenced by fire frequency and intensity (Brown and Sieg 1999). Furthermore, the mixed grass prairie occupies a broader transition zone between eastern tallgrass prairie and the shortgrass prairie of the western Great Plains. The dominance of species characteristic of these two prairie types varies with soil moisture availability, evaporative demand, and recent grazing history (Cogan et al. 1999). In addition, Wind Cave lies near the midpoint of a long gradient of C 3 (cool season) grass dominance to the north and C 4 (warm season) grass dominance to the south. The ecotonal position of WICA may make it particularly sensitive to climate change. For example, small changes in fire frequency and/or intensity and the vigor of trees vs. grass could dramatically shift the proportions of these two lifeforms. The Park hydrology is also sensitive to changes in the balance between infiltration of precipitation and evapotranspiration, as on average, only a small fraction of annual precipitation reaches the deeper soil layers that feed permanent streamflow. The resources at risk at Wind Cave NP include the Cave itself, as well as small backcountry caves, a genetically important bison herd, and other prairie species including the black-tailed prairie dog and endangered black-footed ferrets. All of these resources will be directly affected by climate change impacts on vegetation and hydrology. Natural resource management challenges at WICA are substantial, diverse, and intertwined. Aboveground, the park has been recognized as exemplary for its high quality vegetation (Marriot et al. 1999), though the park is relatively small for the diversity of vegetation types and species that it supports. Even without a changing climate, maintaining the integrity of the plant communities is complicated by the park’s legislated responsibility to maintain viable populations of bison, elk and pronghorn. In addition, the federally endangered black-footed ferret was recently re-introduced to the park. This species requires large extents of prairie dog towns for prey and habitat. Prairie dogs impact vegetation by constant clipping, grazing and soil disturbance, thereby affecting plant composition and productivity. Moreover, naturally high interannual climate variability and the strong influence of precipitation on grass productivity in this region combine to yield high interannual variability in the amount of forage available for the wildlife that the park is tasked to maintain. Finally, fire, which is now primarily controlled by WICA and NPS Northern Great Plains fire management programs, is intertwined with all other natural resource issues at WICA, as it can impact prairie dog colony and forest expansion, ungulate foraging behavior, invasive plant species, and hydrological processes. Although not capable of capturing all of these complexities, dynamic vegetation models do provide a means for quantitatively projecting vegetation futures in future climates under plausible fire and grazing regimes. Our work uses the DGVM MC1 to simulate the effects of future climate projections and management practices on the vegetation of WICA. MC1 is designed to project potential vegetation as influenced by natural processes and hence is appropriate for national parks, where conservation of native biota and ecosystems is of great importance. Since the initial application of MC1 to a small portion of WICA (Bachelet et al. 2000), the model has been altered to improve model performance with the inclusion of dynamic fire. Applying this improved version to WICA required substantial recalibration, during which we have made a number of improvements to MC1 that will be incorporated as permanent changes. In this report we document these changes and our calibration procedure following a brief overview of the model. We compare the projections of current vegetation to the current state of the park and present projections of vegetation dynamics under future climates downscaled from three GCMs selected to represent the existing range in available GCM projections. In doing so, we examine the consequences of different management options regarding fire and grazing, major aspects of biotic management at Wind Cave.

South Dakota↗
USGS2010

Model-based evaluation of highly and low pathogenic avian influenza dynamics in wild birds

There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

The state of human dimensions capacity for natural resource management: needs, knowledge, and resources

The social sciences have become increasingly important in understanding natural resource management contexts and audiences, and are essential in design and delivery of effective and durable management strategies. Yet many agencies and organizations do not have the necessary resource management. We draw on the textbook definition of HD: how and why people value natural resources, what benefits people seek and derive from those resources, and how people affect and are affected by those resources and their management (Decker, Brown, and Seimer 2001). Clearly articulating how HD information can be used and integrated into natural resource management planning and decision-making is an important challenge faced by the HD field. To address this challenge, we formed a collaborative team to explore the issue of HD capacity-building for natural resource organizations and to advance the HD field. We define HD capacity as activities, efforts, and resources that enhance the ability of HD researchers and practitioners and natural managers and decision-makers to understand and address the social aspects of conservation. Specifically, we sought to examine current barriers to integration of HD into natural resource management, knowledge needed to improve HD capacity, and existing HD tools, resources, and training opportunities. We conducted a needs assessment of HD experts and practitioners, developed a framework for considering HD activities that can contribute both directly and indirectly throughout any phase of an adaptive management cycle, and held a workshop to review preliminary findings and gather additional input through breakout group discussions. This paper provides highlights from our collaborative initiative to help frame and inform future HD capacity-building efforts and natural resource organizations and also provides a list of existing human dimensions tools and resources.

The George Wright Forum↗
USGS2014

Connecting the dots: a collaborative USGS-NPS effort to expand the utility of monitoring data

The Natural Resource Challenge (National Park Service 1999) was a call to action. It constituted a mandate for monitoring based on the twin premises that (1) natural resources in national parks require active management and stewardship if we are to protect them from gradual degradation, and (2) we cannot protect what we do not understand. The intent of the challenge was embodied in its original description: We must expand existing inventory programs and develop efficient ways to monitor the vital signs of natural systems. We must enlist others in the scientific community to help, and also facilitate their inquiry. Managers must have and apply this information to preserve our natural resources. In this article, we report on ongoing collaborative work between the National Park Service (NPS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) that seeks to add to our scientific understanding of the ecological processes operating behind vital signs monitoring data. The ultimate goal of this work is to provide insights that can facilitate an understanding of the systems and identify potential opportunities for active stewardship by NPS managers (Bennetts et al. 2007; Mitchell et al. 2014). The bulk of the work thus far has involved Acadia and Rocky Mountain national parks, but there are plans for extending the work to additional parks. Our story stats with work designed to consider ways of assessing the status and condition of natural resources and the potential for historical or ongoing influences of human activities. In the 1990s, the concept of "biotic integrity" began to take hold as an aspiration for developing quantitative indices describing how closely the conditions at a site resemble those found at pristine, unimpacted sites. Quantitative methods for developing indices of biotic integrity (IBIs) and elaborations of that idea (e.g., ecological integrity) have received considerable attention and application of these methods to natural resources has become widespread (Karr 1991; Barbour et al. 1999; Stoddard et al. 2008). Despite widespread use, many questions remain about how metrics are combined to form effective indices and about how to interpret both. Scientists and natural resource specialists within NPS and USGS have joined forces to critique the current analysis methods, with the collaboration involving the Rocky Mountain and Northeast Temperate NPS Inventory and Monitoring (I & M) networks, along with others, and USGS scientists from the National Wetlands Research Center and Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Funding that initiated the project was from a joint-partnership fund managed by the USGS Ecosystems Program for National Park Monitoring research and the work was focused at Acadia National Park and Rocky Mountain National Park. Here we present synopses of two major issues addressed by the group.

The George Wright Forum↗
USGS2014

Climate change and plant community composition in national parks of the southwestern US: forecasting regional, long-term effects to meet management needs

The National Park Service (NPS) faces tremendous management challenges in the future as climates alter the abundance and distribution of plant species. These challenges will be especially daunting in the southwestern U.S., where large increases in aridity are forecasted. The expected reduction in water availability will negatively affect plant growth and may result in shifts of plant community composition. Synthesis of climate and plant vital sign data from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks is essential to provide park managers with important insights into contemporary climate responses and a sound basis to forecast likely future changes at species, community, and ecosystem scales. We describe a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NPS in which we have conducted regional cross-site assessments across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts to understand plant species responses to past climate and forecast future plant community composition. We also determined whether a widely-implemented vegetation monitoring protocol in these deserts is suitable to track long-term vegetation changes caused by climate and other factors. Our results from these analyses are intended to help natural resource managers identify and prepare for changes in plant cover and community composition and evaluate the efficacy of current monitoring programs.

Arizona, New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS1993

Monitoring beach changes using GPS surveying techniques

A need exists for frequent and prompt updating of shoreline positions, rates of shoreline movement, and volumetric nearshore changes. To effectively monitor and predict these beach changes, accurate measurements of beach morphology incorporating both shore-parallel and shore-normal transects are required. Although it is possible to monitor beach dynamics using land-based surveying methods, it is generally not practical to collect data of sufficient density and resolution to satisfy a three-dimensional beach-change model of long segments of the coast. The challenge to coastal scientists is to devise new beach monitoring methods that address these needs and are rapid, reliable, relatively inexpensive, and maintain or improve measurement accuracy. The adaptation of Global Positioning System (GPS) surveying techniques to beach monitoring activities is a promising response to this challenge. An experiment that employed both GPS and conventional beach surveying was conducted, and a new beach monitoring method employing kinematic GPS surveys was devised. This new method involves the collection of precise shore-parallel and shore-normal GPS positions from a moving vehicle so that an accurate two-dimensional beach surface can be generated. Results show that the GPS measurements agree with conventional shore-normal surveys at the 1 cm level, and repeated GPS measurements employing the moving vehicle demonstrate a precision of better than 1 cm. In addition, the nearly continuous sampling and increased resolution provided by the GPS surveying technique reveals alongshore changes in beach morphology that are undetected by conventional shore-normal profiles. The application of GPS surveying techniques combined with the refinement of appropriate methods for data collection and analysis provides a better understanding of beach changes, sediment transport, and storm impacts.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2015

Mapping surficial minerals at high latitudes: The USGS 2014 imaging spectrometer data collection in Alaska

Passive optical remote sensing of high latitude regions faces many challenges including a short acquisition season and poor illumination due to low solar elevation. Additional complications are encountered in the identification of surface minerals for mineral resource characterization because minerals of interest commonly are exposed on steep terrain, further challenging reflectance retrieval and detection of mineral signatures. On shallow slopes and flat terrain, vegetation cover can interfere with or obscure the absorption features of minerals in rock and soil. The USGS is conducting a study to examine the viability of using remote sensing techniques for identification of large-tonnage, base metal-rich deposits in Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative strategic plan 2015 - 2025

The Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NWB LCC) is a voluntary, diverse, self-directed management-science partnership, informing and promoting integrated science, sustainable natural and cultural resource management, and conservation to address impacts of climate change and other stressors within and across ecosystems. The NWB LCC area includes parts of Alaska, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and British Columbia. Our partnership reflects both the broad geographic scope and an extensive array of active and engaged participants including resource management organizations, government representatives, policy makers, Tribes and First Nations, industry leaders, researchers, non-governmental organizations, and research/education institutions. Bringing together diverse partners will help assure the northwest boreal is a functioning, sustainable landscape. We live in an era of profound conservation challenges, including the loss and fragmentation of habitats, genetic isolation, invasive species, and unnatural wildfire. The effects of rapidly changing climate are already evident on the landscape. In these circumstances, it is imperative that natural resource management agencies, science providers, Tribes, First Nations, conservation organizations, and other stakeholders work together to understand the drivers and impacts of landscape change and to determine how best to address those challenges. Further, it is essential that the public and communities receive clear communication about the vision and activities of the NWB LCC. Open public access to NWB LCC activities and products will promote acceptance and support of the science that guides potential changes in management action and conservation strategy. This strategic plan provides a great opportunity for the NWB LCC to share our approach and intentions to the LCC members, collaborators, communities, and the public at large.

Report↗
USGS2010

Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2015

Applications of optical sensors for high-frequency water-quality monitoring and research

The recent commercial availability of in-situ optical sensors, together with new techniques for data collection and analysis, provides the opportunity to monitor a wide range of water-quality constituents over time scales during which environmental conditions actually change. Traditional approaches for data collection (daily to monthly discrete samples) are often limited by high sample collection, processing, and analytical costs, difficult site access, and logistical challenges, particularly for long-term sampling at a large number of sites. Optical sensors that continuously measure constituents in the environment by absorbance or fluorescence properties (Figure 1) have had a long history of use in oceanography for measuring highly resolved concentrations and fluxes of organic matter, nutrients, and algal material. However, much of the work using commercially-available optical sensors in rivers and streams has taken place in only the last few years. Figure 1. [NOT SHOWN] Optical sensor technology is now sufficiently developed to warrant broader application for research and monitoring in coastal and freshwater systems, and the United States Geological Survey (a U.S. science agency) is now using these sensors in a variety of research and monitoring programs to better understand water quality in-situ and in real-time. Examples are numerous and range from the applications of nitrate sensors for calculating loads to estuaries susceptible to hypoxia (Pellerin et al., 2014) to the use of fluorometers to estimate methymercury fluxes (Bergamaschi et al., 2011) and disinfection byproduct formation (Carpenter et al., 2013). Transmitting these data in real-time provides information that can be used for early trend detection, help identify monitoring gaps critical for water management, and provide science-based decision support across a range of issues related to water quality, freshwater ecosystems, and human health. Despite the value of these sensors, collecting data that meet high-quality standards requires investment in and adherence to tested and established methods and protocols for sensor operation and data management (Pellerin et al., 2013). For example, optical sensor measurements can be strongly influenced by a variety of matrix effects, including water temperature, inner filtering from highly colored water, and scattering of light by suspended particles (Downing et al., 2012). Characterizing and correcting sensors for these effects – as well as the continued development of common methodologies and protocols for sensor use – will be critical to ensuring comparable measurements across sites and over time. In addition, collaborative efforts such as the Nutrient Sensor Challenge (www.nutrients-challenge.org) will continue to accelerate the development, production and use of affordable, reliable and accurate sensors for a range of environments. REFERENCES Bergamaschi .B.A., Fleck J.A., Downing B.D., Boss E., Pellerin B.A., Ganju N.K., Schoellhamer D.H., Byington A.A., Heim W.A., Stephenson M., Fujii R. (2011), Methyl mercury dynamics in a tidal wetland quantified using in situ optical measurements. Limnology and Oceanography, 56(4): 1355-1371. Carpenter K.D., Kraus T.E.C., Goldman J.H., Saraceno J., Downing B.D., Bergamaschi B.A., McGhee G., Triplett T. (2013), Sources and Characteristics of Organic Matter in the Clackamas River, Oregon, Related to the Formation of Disinfection By-products in Treated Drinking Water: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5001, 78 p. Downing .B.D., Pellerin B.A., Bergamaschi B.A., Saraceno J., Kraus T.E.K. (2012), Seeing the light: The effects of particles, temperature and inner filtering on in situ CDOM fluorescence in rivers and streams. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods, 10: 767-775. Pellerin B.A., Bergamaschi B.A., Downing B.D., Saraceno J., Garrett J.D., Olsen L.D. (2013), Optical Techniques for the Determination of Nitrate in En

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Genetic variation reveals influence of landscape connectivity on population dynamics and resiliency of western trout in disturbance-prone habitats

Salmonid fishes have evolved and persisted in dynamic ecosystems where disturbance events vary in frequency, magnitude, timing, and duration, as well as the specific nature of associated effects (e.g., changes in thermal or flow regimes, geomorphology, or water chemistry). In the western United States, one of the major drivers of disturbance in stream ecosystems is fire. Although there is a growing consensus that fish populations can ultimately benefit from the productive and heterogeneous habitats created by fire, to persist they obviously have to withstand the immediate and shorter-term effects of fire, which can reduce or even extirpate local populations. Movement among interconnected stream habitats is thought to be an important strategy enabling persistence during and following fire, and there is mounting concern that the extensive isolation of salmonid populations in fragmented habitats is reducing their resiliency to fire. In spite of this concern, there are few direct observations of salmonid responses to fire. In fact, guidance is based largely on a broader understanding of the influences of landscape structure and disturbance in general on salmonid fishes, and there is considerable uncertainty about how best to manage for salmonid resilience to wildfire. Studies are limited by the difficult logistics of following fish responses in the face of unpredictable events such as wildfires. Therefore, BACI (Before-After-Control-Impact) study designs are nearly impossible, and replication is similarly challenging because fires are often low-frequency events. Furthermore, conventional ecological study approaches (e.g., studies of fish distribution, abundance, life histories, and movement) are logistically difficult to implement. Overall, a major challenge to understanding resilience of salmonid populations in fire-prone environments is related to moving beyond localized case studies to those with broader applicability in wildfire management . Genetic data can be useful for overcoming many of the limitations inherent in ecological studies. Here we review several case studies of western trout where population genetic data have provided insight about fish responses to fragmentation and disturbance more generally, and specifically in relation to fire. Results of these studies confirm the importance of movement and landscape connectivity for ensuring fish persistence in fire-prone landscapes, and highlight the usefulness of genetic approaches for broad-scale evaluation and monitoring of population responses to fire and related management actions.

Technical Report↗
USGS2005

Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change. To meet this challenge, mountain scientists increasingly are modeling the vast array of relationships that comprise ecosystem dynamics. Dynamic modeling can examine the interactions between land management strategies and climatic change to develop appropriate responses to future human demands on mountain systems. Modeling provides spatially and temporally explicit, quantified results that can be validated in the field, thus providing feedback to our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. Modeling results, particularly maps and other visual tools, also give a concrete dimension to our understanding of the scale and magnitude of potential future changes. Modeling alerts scientists and land managers to apparently counter-intuitive outcomes of ecosystem responses to climate change or management decisions. For instance, in an early modeling exercise for northwest Montana, USA, Running and Nemani (1991) found that streamflow in a warmer future climate decreased by 30% in the Swan Range even when precipitation was increased by 10% in a particular climate change scenario. This unexpected response was due to enhanced forest growth, and increased evapotranspiration, resulting from the earlier snowmelt and extended growing season. There is a rich legacy of models that address climate and weather, hydrology, forest growth (e.g. gap dynamics and succession), forest fires (e.g. fuel loading) and land cover change (cf. Bugmann et al., this volume). Much less common, however, are attempts to fully integrate models from various disciplines to create a robust system that adequately addresses the entire range of ecosystem dynamics. In addition, fine-resolution modeling of entire mountain ranges (i.e. regional ecosystem scale) is not as common as global or continental scale modeling or watershed/catchment scale modeling. However, this is the scale that is germane to policy decisions such as in the western US and Canada, i.e. in those areas that contain most of the mountainous terrain of North America. This paper describes our efforts to implement an integrated regional modeling approach while characterizing potential future responses of a mountain ecosystem to climate change. Our study area was Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana, USA. Glacier Park is a 4082 km” mountain wilderness that straddles the continental divide and contains over 150 summits of up to 3150 m elevation in the Lewis and Livingston mountain ranges.

Book chapter↗