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Using fish community and population indicators to assess the biological condition of streams and rivers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA

The development of indicators to assess relative freshwater condition is critical for management and conservation. Predictive modeling can enhance the utility of indicators by providing estimates of condition for unsurveyed locations. Such approaches grant understanding of where “good” and “poor” conditions occur and provide insight into landscape contexts supporting such conditions. However, as assessments are conducted at large extents crossing jurisdictional boundaries, combined datasets are likely not suited for traditional assessment approaches which rely on jurisdictionally-specific reference sites. Here, we used a large dataset compiled from multiple providers to assess the condition of fish habitat for non-tidal streams and rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW), USA. We concurrently used community and species-level analyses to provide a more holistic view of habitat conditions by using random forest models to predict selected metrics and species occurrence with landscape data for inland CBW stream reaches. Community analyses included metrics describing composition, tolerances, habitat preferences, and functional traits of fish communities whereas species-level analyses consisted of distribution models for key sensitive and gamefish species. For community analyses, a final index was calculated as the average of selected metric deciles with higher scores inferring less biologically altered (i.e., better) conditions, providing an alternative to using reference sites. For species analyses, species occurrence was predicted for stream reaches, with presence indicating suitable habitat. Uncertainty was calculated for both approaches using model prediction intervals. Results indicated different numbers of suitable metrics for each region, with most in the Northern Appalachian (15) and least in the Southern Appalachian Piedmont (3). Four species (three sensitive) were suitable for modeling. At the CBW scale, predictions did not vary greatly among deciles for the community or species analyses for 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. Most stream reaches did not vary in mean decile rank or in species occurrence between 2001 and 2016; however, the largest community changes occurred in large rivers in the Coastal Plains ecoregion and the largest species occurrence changes occurred in Torrent Suckers in medium-sized rivers. When compared, results from community analyses agreed for one sensitive species (Brook Trout) but not the other three, potentially due to regionally inappropriate tolerance assignment. Comparisons also demonstrated substantial variation among approaches suggesting a lack of redundancy. While each approach traditionally has its targeted audience and respective strengths and weaknesses, concurrent use of these approaches permits direct comparisons and may assuage shortcomings of each approach when considered separately.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Movers and stayers: Novel assemblages in changing environments

How species will respond to ongoing climate and other change is of increasing concern. Most attention is given to how species move or are moved, but many species stay. Understanding the dynamics of new species combinations is essential for successful conservation in a changing climate. Increased attention to species movement in response to environmental change highlights the need to consider changes in species distributions and altered biological assemblages. Such changes are well known from paleoecological studies, but have accelerated with ongoing pervasive human influence. In addition to species that move, some species will stay put, leading to an array of novel interactions. Species show a variety of responses that can allow movement or persistence. Conservation and restoration actions have traditionally focused on maintaining or returning species in particular places, but increasingly also include interventions that facilitate movement. Approaches are required that incorporate the fluidity of biotic assemblages into the goals set and interventions deployed.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

Response of fish assemblages to declining acidic deposition in Adirondack Mountain lakes, 1984–2012

Adverse effects of acidic deposition on the chemistry and fish communities were evident in Adirondack Mountain lakes during the 1980s and 1990s. Fish assemblages and water chemistry in 43 Adirondack Long-Term Monitoring (ALTM) lakes were sampled by the Adirondack Lakes Survey Corporation and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation during three periods (1984–87, 1994–2005, and 2008–12) to document regional impacts and potential biological recovery associated with the 1990 amendments to the 1963 Clean Air Act (CAA). We assessed standardized data from 43 lakes sampled during the three periods to quantify the response of fish-community richness, total fish abundance, and brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis) abundance to declining acidity that resulted from changes in U.S. air-quality management between 1984 and 2012. During the 28-year period, mean acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased significantly from 3 to 30 μeq/L and mean inorganic monomeric Al concentrations decreased significantly from 2.22 to 0.66 μmol/L, yet mean species richness, all species or total catch per net night (CPNN), and brook trout CPNN did not change significantly in the 43 lakes. Regression analyses indicate that fishery metrics were not directly related to the degree of chemical recovery and that brook trout CPNN may actually have declined with increasing ANC. While the richness of fish communities increased with increasing ANC as anticipated in several Adirondack lakes, observed improvements in water quality associated with the CAA have generally failed to produce detectable shifts in fish assemblages within a large number of ALTM lakes. Additional time may simply be needed for biological recovery to progress, or else more proactive efforts may be necessary to restore natural fish assemblages in Adirondack lakes in which water chemistry is steadily recovering from acidification.

New York↗

Towards a global terrestrial species monitoring program

Introduction: The Convention for Biological Diversity’s (CBD) Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 envisions that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people.” Although 193 parties have adopted these goals, there is little infrastructure in place to monitor global biodiversity trends. Recent international conservation policy requires such data to be up-to-date, reliable, comparable among sites, relevant, and understandable; as is becoming obvious from the work plan adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES: www.ipbes.net/; http://tinyurl.com/ohdnknq). In order to meet the five strategic goals of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 and its 20 accompanying Aichi Targets for 2020 (www.cbd.int/sp/targets/), advances need to be made in coordinating large-scale biodiversity monitoring and linking these with environmental data to develop a comprehensive Global Observation Network, as is the main idea behind GEOSS the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (Christian 2005)...Here we identify ten requirements important for the successful implementation of a global biodiversity monitoring network under the flag of GEO BON and especially a global terrestrial species monitoring program.

Journal for Nature Conservation↗

Lessons from the past: isotopes of an endangered rail as indicators of underlying change to tidal marsh habitats

Introduction: Tidal marsh systems along the Pacific coast of the United States have experienced substantial stress and loss of area and ecosystem function, which we examined by using the endangered California Ridgway’s Rail, Rallus obsoletus obsoletus (‘rail’) as an indicator of its tidal marsh habitat in the San Francisco Estuary. We organized a collection of historical (1885-1940) and modern (2005-2014) rail feathers and analyzed the feather isotope means for delta carbon (δ 13 C), sulfur (δ 34 S), and nitrogen (δ 15 N) by region and time period. Outcomes: Feather isotopes represented the primary foraging habitat during historical then modern time periods. Neither individual nor regional rail feather isotopes suggested freshwater or terrestrial foraging by the rail. Three regions with both historic and modern feather isotopes revealed non-uniform spatial shifts in isotope levels consistent with a marine based food web and significant δ 15 N enrichment. Discussion: Our results supported the rail’s status as a generalist forager and obligate tidal marsh species throughout the historic record. The variable isoscape trends generated from feather isotope means illustrated a modern loss of the isotopic homogeneity between regions of historical tidal marsh, which correlated with spatially-explicit habitat alterations such as increasing biological invasions and sewage effluent over time. Conclusion: These findings have reinforced the importance of tidal marsh conservation in the face of ongoing underlying changes to these important ecosystems.

California↗

Movement and longevity of imperiled Okaloosa Darters (Etheostoma okaloosae)

Movement and longevity studies inform management and conservation plans for imperiled organisms. We used a mark–recapture study to reveal information about these key biological characteristics for imperiled Okaloosa Darters (Etheostoma okaloosae). Okaloosa Darters were captured from 20 m reaches at six separate streams, marked with VIE on the left or right dorsum according to the side of the stream from which they were captured, and released on the same side where they were captured. Okaloosa Darters were recounted (but not recaptured) at 24 h and one month, and then recaptured once per year for the following eight years. During the final recapture year, we measured standard length of all Okaloosa Darters and constructed length frequency distributions to identify distinct cohorts. We found that significant numbers of Okaloosa Darters remained within their 20 m reaches after 24 h (31%), one month (45%), and one year (22%) and rarely crossed open, sandy stream channels from one side to the other. Our recapture data and length frequency distributions indicate that Okaloosa Darters live longer than the 2–3 years suggested by previous authors. One of our recaptured fish was at least eight years old, making Okaloosa Darters the most long-lived etheostomine.

Copeia↗

A preliminary assessment of mouflon abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park

Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) recently acquired the 115,653 acre Kahuku Ranch unit adjacent to the existing Mauna Loa section of HAVO. Kahuku contains numerous exceptional natural resources including many federally listed threatened and endangered species. An apparently large and growing population of alien mouflon sheep (Ovis gmelini musimon), however, threatens sensitive native plants and forest bird habitats. Population composition and abundance estimates were urgently needed to determine the magnitude of resources required to manage this species and justify costs. We surveyed 32,433 acres from helicopter over 2 days in November 2004 during breeding to determine the abundance and population structure. We estimated that there were more than 2,586 ? 705 (90% CI) mouflon at Kahuku. Overall, group sizes averaged 7.8 and the sex ratio was 1:2.4 rams:ewes, but approximately 44% of the population was concentrated in forested areas near ranching operations where group sizes averaged >15 and the sex ratio was 1:3.9 rams:ewes. The remaining 56% of the population occurred widely dispersed in subalpine shrubland and barren lava flows. Abundance estimates are likely to be conservative because they were not adjusted for detection probability. Ground-based surveys of lambs suggest upper biological limit to annual population increase of 33.1% under existing environmental conditions. Historical information used to calculate population trends indicated the apparent rate of population increase to be 21.1%. In the absence of removals, the population increment for 2004-2005, would be more than 546-856, and the population doubling time with these growth rates is 3-4 years.

Hawai'i↗

Natural range expansion and local extirpation of an exotic psittacine--an unsuccessful colonization attempt

The Brown-throated Parakeet Aratinga pertinax is native to Panama, northern South America, and the islands off the northern coast of Venezuela. It is widely believed that the parakeet was introduced to St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, from Curacao before the mid-19th century, although no records exist as to when and how this may have occurred. The parakeet was not recorded from Vieques or Culebra islands or mainland Puerto Rico before 1975. However, in that year A. pertinax underwent an apparent natural range expansion from St. Thomas into each of these sites. The 5 birds in the eastern Puerto Rico population made 5 breeding attempts and fledged 11 young since their discovery in April1975. That population grew to a maximum size of 10 birds in June 1979. However there was only 1 bird left by July 1980, and the population no longer existed at the beginning of what would have been the 1982 breeding season. The populations on Culebra and Vieques islands were apparently extirpated by 1976. Losses in the eastern Puerto Rico population were low during the first four years of colonization, when reproduction was adequate and the mortality was low. However, between 1978 and the time of population disappearance in 1982, the expected extirpation was 0.999. Habitat use, general behavior, breeding biology, competitors and predators of the colonizing population in eastern Puerto Rico are described. Biogeographic, evolutionary, and conservation implications of these observations are discussed.

Ornitologia Neotropical↗

U.S. Geological Survey Information Sources

As the nation's largest water, earth and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works in cooperation with more than 2000 organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial, scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers. This information is gathered in every state by USGS scientists to minimize the loss of life and property from natural disasters, to contribute to the conservation and the sound economic and physical development of the nation's natural resources, and to enhance the quality of life by monitoring water, biological, energy and mineral resources.

Fact Sheet↗

U.S. Geological Survey Information Sources

As the Nation's largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works in cooperation with more than 2,000 organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers. This information is gathered in every State by USGS scientists to minimize the loss of life and property from natural disasters, to contribute to the conservation and the sound economic and physical development of the Nation's natural resources, and to enhance the quality of life by monitoring water, biological, energy, and mineral resources

Fact Sheet↗

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published since January 2015

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal government technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. The final search was conducted on January 6, 2018, and application of our criteria resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography ( https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php ) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to the original publications. A substantial body of literature has been compiled based on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

Open-File Report↗

Understanding mast seeding for conservation and land management

Masting, the intermittent and synchronous production of large seed crops, can have profound consequences for plant populations and the food webs that are built on their seeds. For centuries, people have recorded mast crops because of their importance in managing wildlife populations. In the past 30 years, we have begun to recognize the importance of masting in conserving and managing many other aspects of the environment: promoting the regeneration of forests following fire or other disturbance, conserving rare plants, conscientiously developing the use of edible seeds as non-timber forest products, coping with the consequences of extinctions on seed dispersal, reducing the impacts of plant invasions with biological control, suppressing zoonotic diseases and preventing depredation of endemic fauna. We summarize current instances and future possibilities of a broad set of applications of masting. By exploring in detail several case studies, we develop new perspectives on how solutions to pressing conservation and land management problems may benefit by better understanding the dynamics of seed production. A lesson common to these examples is that masting can be used to time management, and often, to do this effectively, we need models that explicitly forecast masting and the dynamics of seed-eating animals into the near-term future.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

Scientific contributions of the Mangrove Macrobenthos and Management (MMM) conference series, 2000-2019

The conservation of mangrove forests has become an important international policy priority in recent decades, and is mirrored by a large increase in research interest. Multiple disciplines now use mangroves as a study system, from molecular biology to social science. The variety of research conducted in mangroves is exemplified by the Mangrove Macrobenthos & Management (MMM) conference series, the world's largest gathering of researchers and practitioners dedicated to the science and conservation of the mangrove ecosystem. Established in 2000, MMM is a useful barometer with which to identify and measure research trends over the last 20 years. This study describes the history of the MMM conference series, and analyses the research presented in this series as a potential proxy of how the broader mangrove research field has changed through time. Presentations in early MMM conferences were dominated by macrobenthos studies, reflective of the origins of MMM as a forum specifically for mangrove macrobenthos research. However, later conferences have come to reflect the broader interests of the mangrove research field, and have tracked the emergence of blue carbon and other ecosystem services. Mangrove forests continue to be a rich and diverse ecosystem of study, and future MMM conferences will continue to provide a platform for impactful research and management.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

Water-quality and related aquatic biological characterization of Fish Creek, Teton County, Wyoming, 2007-2011

Fish Creek, in western Wyoming near the town of Wilson, is a key feature in the area because it is used for irrigation, fishing, and other recreation, and adds scenic value to properties it runs through. Public concern about nuisance growths of aquatic plants in Fish Creek has been increasing since the early 2000s. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Teton Conservation District, began studying Fish Creek in 2004 to describe the hydrology of the stream and later (2007–11) to characterize the water quality and the biological communities. In particular, the study was designed to address three specific questions: •Is algal growth in Fish Creek typical for a stream of its size and geographic area? •Are nutrients entering Fish Creek from nearby land use? •What is the quality of the water in Fish Creek and the health of its biological communities?

Wyoming↗

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on greater sage-grouse published from 2015 to 2019

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter GRSG) has been a focus of scientific investigation and management action for the past two decades. The 2015 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listing determination of “not warranted” was in part due to a large-scale collaborative effort to develop strategies to conserve GRSG populations and their habitat and to reduce threats to both. New scientific information augments existing knowledge and can help inform updates or modifications to existing plans for managing GRSG and sagebrush ecosystems. However, the sheer number of scientific publications can be a challenge for managers tasked with evaluating and determining the need for potential updates to existing planning documents. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has reviewed and summarized the scientific literature published since January 1, 2015. The first GRSG literature summary was published early in 2018. Here we provide an update to that document by adding summaries of articles published between January 6, 2018 and October 2, 2019. To identify articles and reports published about GRSG, we first conducted a structured search of three reference databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar) using the search term “greater sage-grouse.” We refined the initial list of products by (1) removing duplicates, (2) excluding products that were not published as research or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (3) retaining only those products for which GRSG or their habitat was a research focus. We summarized the contents of each product by using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and assessed the content of each product relevant to a list of 31 management topics. These topics include GRSG biology and habitat characteristics along with potential management actions, land uses, and environmental factors related to GRSG management and conservation. We also noted which articles/reports created new geospatial data. Our original search, conducted on January 7, 2018, and the application of our criteria, resulted in the inclusion of 169 published products (2 of these products were published corrections to journal articles). This update adds summaries of 69 products published between then and October 2, 2019. The management topics most commonly addressed were GRSG behavior or demographics and GRSG habitat selection or habitat characteristics at broad or site scales. Few products addressed captive breeding, recreation, wild horses and burros, and range management structures (including fences). The management topics with the largest increase in representation between the 2018 GRSG literature summary and this update were GRSG survival and GRSG population estimates or targets, which were each addressed in 16 percent of products in the original literature summary document, but were addressed in 30 and 33 percent, respectively, of newly summarized products. Topics with the largest declines in representation were conifer expansion, - 17 to 10 percent, and new geospatial data, -31 to 21 percent. We include in this annotated bibliography the full citation, Digital Object Identifier (DOI), product summary, and management topics addressed by each product. The online version of this bibliography (https://apps.usgs.gov/gsgbib/index.php) is searchable by topic and location and includes links to journal landing pages for each original publication. A substantial body of literature has been compiled on research explicitly related to the conservation, management, monitoring, and assessment of GRSG. These studies may inform planning and management actions that seek to balance conservation, economic, and social objectives and manage diverse resource uses and values across the western United States. The review process for this product included requesting input on each summary from one or more authors of the original peer-reviewed article or report and a formal review of the entire document by three independent reviewers for the original document and by two independent reviewers for the updated document and, subsequently, the USGS Bureau Approving Official. This process is consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗

A biological condition gradient for coral reefs in the US Caribbean Territories: Part I. Coral narrative rules

As coral reef condition and sustainability continue to decline worldwide, losses of critical habitat and their ecosystem services have generated an urgency to understand and communicate reef response to management actions, environmental contamination, and natural disasters. Increasingly, coral reef protection and restoration programs emphasize the need for robust assessment tools for protecting high-quality waters and establishing conservation goals. Of equal importance is the need to communicate assessment results to stakeholders, beneficiaries, and the public so that environmental consequences of decisions are understood. The Biological Condition (BCG) model provides a structure to evaluate the condition of a coral reef in increments of change along a gradient of human disturbance. Communication of incremental change, regardless of direction, is important for decision makers and the public to better understand what is gained or lost depending on what actions are taken. We developed a narrative (qualitative) Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) from the consensus of a diverse expert panel to provide a framework for coral reefs in US Caribbean Territories. The model uses narrative descriptions of biological attributes for benthic organisms to evaluate reefs relative to undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Using expert elicitation, narrative decision rules were proposed and deliberated to discriminate among six levels of change along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. Narrative rules for each of the BCG levels are presented to facilitate the evaluation of benthic communities in coral reefs and provide specific narrative features to detect changes in coral reef condition and biological integrity. The BCG model can be used in the absence of numeric, or quantitative metrics, to evaluate actions that may encroach on coral reef ecosystems, manage endangered species habitat, and develop and implement management plans for marine protected areas, watersheds, and coastal zones. The narrative BCG model is a defensible model and communication tool that translates scientific results so the nontechnical person can understand and support both regulatory and non-regulatory water quality and natural resource programs.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

Science Review for the Scott Bar Salamander (Plethodon asupak) and the Siskiyou Mountains Salamander (P. stormi): Biology, Taxonomy, Habitat, and Detection Probabilities/Occupancy

The Plethodon elongatus Complex in the Klamath-Siskiyou Ecoregion of southern Oregon and northern California includes three species: the Del Norte salamander, Plethodon elongatus; the Siskiyou Mountains salamander, P. stormi; and the Scott Bar salamander, P. asupak. This review aims to summarize the current literature and information available on select topics for P. stormi and P. asupak. These are both terrestrial salamanders belonging to the Family Plethodontidae, which contains more species and has a wider geographic distribution than any other family of salamanders (Wake 1966, 2006; Pough 1989). The genera of this family have greatly diversified ecologically across North America, Central America, northern South America, Sardinia, southeastern France and northwestern Italy, and have recently been discovered on the Korean peninsula (Min et al. 2005). The genus Plethodon is found exclusively in North America and is split into three distinct clades, based upon morphology and phylogenetics (Highton and Larson 1979): eastern small Plethodon, eastern large Plethodon, and the western Plethodon. The western Plethodon are the greatest representation of Plethodontidae in the Pacific Northwest, with 8 species. The two species with the most restricted ranges of these regional congeners are the Siskiyou Mountains and Scott Bar salamanders. These salamanders occupy the interior of the Klamath-Siskiyou Ecoregion which straddles the California and Oregon state lines, between Siskiyou County (CA) and Jackson and Josephine Counties (OR). The relatively recent discovery of P. asupak (Mead et al. 2005) and the limited range of both species have created an environment of uncertain conservation status for these species. This review will focus on four central topics of concern for land and resource managers: Biology; Taxonomy; Habitat; and Detection Probabilities/Occupancy.

Open-File Report↗

Intensity of grass invasion negatively correlated with population density and age structure of an endangered dune plant across its range

Invasive species are a global threat to ecosystem biodiversity and function; non-native grass invasion has been particularly problematic in sparsely vegetated ecosystems such as open dunes. Native plant population responses to invasion, however, are infrequently translated to landscape scales, limiting the effectiveness of these data for addressing conservation issues. We quantified population density, total population size, and age class distribution of the federally-endangered plant species Antioch Dunes evening primrose ( Oenothera deltoides subsp. howellii ), at sites along a non-native grass invasion gradient in California, USA. We then scaled relationships between invasion and plant density across the species’ range using spatial models and remote sensing data. Adult and juvenile O. deltoides subsp. howellii densities were more than 10 times higher in non-invaded areas (grids with 10% total plant cover) when compared to highly-invaded areas (grids with 80% total plant cover). The ratio of O. deltoides subsp. howellii juveniles to adults decreased to less than 1 at 54% total cover, highlighting sensitivity of the regeneration niche to invasion. Spatial models mapped hotspots of O. deltoides subsp. howellii abundance and population structure across the landscape at sub-meter scales. Scaling the impacts of increasing invasion on plant species of conservation concern holds promise when coupled with remote sensing approaches, especially in naturally low-cover ecosystems where readily available metrics (e.g., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) can be used to quantify invasion. These spatial models inform how future invasive species management may influence population size and spatial distribution of species of conservation concern.

California↗