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Monitoring and modeling wetland chloride concentrations in relationship to oil and gas development

Extraction of oil and gas via unconventional methods is becoming an important aspect of energy production worldwide. Studying the effects of this development in countries where these technologies are being widely used may provide other countries, where development may be proposed, with some insight in terms of concerns associated with development. A fairly recent expansion of unconventional oil and gas development in North America provides such an opportunity. Rapid increases in energy development in North America have caught the attention of managers and scientists as a potential stressor for wildlife and their habitats. Of particular concern in the Northern Great Plains of the U.S. is the potential for chloride-rich produced water associated with unconventional oil and gas development to alter the water chemistry of wetlands. We describe a landscape scale modeling approach designed to examine the relationship between potential chloride contamination in wetlands and patterns of oil and gas development. We used a spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to assess multiple models explaining chloride concentrations in wetlands. These models included effects related to oil and gas wells (e.g. age of wells, number of wells) and surficial geology (e.g. glacial till, outwash). We found that the model containing the number of wells and the surficial geology surrounding a wetland best explained variation in chloride concentrations. Our spatial predictions showed regions of localized high chloride concentrations. Given the spatiotemporal variability of regional wetland water chemistry, we do not regard our results as predictions of contamination, but rather as a way to identify locations that may require more intensive sampling or further investigation. We suggest that an approach like the one outlined here could easily be extended to more of an adaptive monitoring approach to answer questions about chloride contamination risk that are of interest to managers.

Montana, North Dakota↗

Prototypic automated continuous recreational water quality monitoring of nine Chicago beaches

Predictive empirical modeling is used in many locations worldwide as a rapid, alternative recreational water quality management tool to eliminate delayed notifications associated with traditional fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) culturing (referred to as the persistence model, PM) and to prevent errors in releasing swimming advisories. The goal of this study was to develop a fully automated water quality management system for multiple beaches using predictive empirical models (EM) and state-of-the-art technology. Many recent EMs rely on samples or data collected manually, which adds to analysis time and increases the burden to the beach manager. In this study, data from water quality buoys and weather stations were transmitted through cellular telemetry to a web hosting service. An executable program simultaneously retrieved and aggregated data for regression equations and calculated EM results each morning at 9:30 AM; results were transferred through RSS feed to a website, mapped to each beach, and received by the lifeguards to be posted at the beach. Models were initially developed for five beaches, but by the third year, 21 beaches were managed using refined and validated modeling systems. The adjusted R 2 of the regressions relating Escherichia coli to hydrometeorological variables for the EMs were greater than those for the PMs, and ranged from 0.220 to 0.390 (2011) and 0.103 to 0.381 (2012). Validation results in 2013 revealed reduced predictive capabilities; however, three of the originally modeled beaches showed improvement in 2013 compared to 2012. The EMs generally showed higher accuracy and specificity than those of the PMs, and sensitivity was low for both approaches. In 2012 EM accuracy was 70–97%; specificity, 71–100%; and sensitivity, 0–64% and in 2013 accuracy was 68–97%; specificity, 73–100%; and sensitivity 0–36%. Factors that may have affected model capabilities include instrument malfunction, non-point source inputs, and sparse calibration data. The modeling system developed is the most extensive, fully-automated system for recreational water quality developed to date. Key insights for refining and improving large-scale empirical models for beach management have been developed through this multi-year effort.

Illinois↗

Reducing wastewater nitrogen loading by >90% with carbon-amended septic systems: A field demonstration in Barnstable (Cape Cod), Massachusetts

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are a major source of excess nutrients and co-pollutants in watersheds across the United States. In Barnstable County (Cape Cod), Massachusetts, effluent from septic systems and cesspools contributes approximately 80% of the controllable reactive nitrogen (N) load to numerous impaired estuaries and degrades water quality in the region's sole source aquifer, streams and ponds. In unsewered areas, wastewater N loads could be reduced substantially by Innovative/Alternative (I/A) septic systems designed for enhanced removal. Use, however, has been partly limited by the availability of high performing, cost effective options, while conventional septic systems continue to be installed in watersheds with well documented N impairments. This paper describes the strategic replacement of residential OWTS with two I/A models that incorporate woodchip bioreactors to enhance N removal. Systems were installed at 14 neighboring homes in Barnstable, MA, and monitored for field performance. Influent and effluent were sampled monthly and analyzed for N and phosphorus (P), among other water quality indicators. Flow to each system was continuously metered to estimate nutrient loads. Results from the first 25 months of monitoring for 13 systems with at least a full year of data are presented in terms of 1) reductions in nutrient concentrations and mass loads and 2) reliability of the systems for meeting a performance goal of total N (TN) < 10 mg/L. Discussion supports consideration of where and how these technologies may be successfully used to manage excess N in sensitive watersheds.

Massachusetts↗

Reconciling scale using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework to improve management of woody encroachment in grasslands

Implementing strategies to navigate large-scale ecological transitions in grasslands is one of this century's greatest conservation challenges. In the US Great Plains, managing areas impacted by woody transitions have been reactive, short-lived, costly, and ineffective. Along with current technological innovation in rangeland monitoring, the promise of early warning science is to provide managers with sufficient time to be better prepared for novel signals of ecological change. Combining the science of early warning signals and frameworks such as the Resist – Accept – Direct (RAD) can provide land managers with guidelines to identify proactive strategies when facing ecological change. Using this approach, we found that opportunities to resist woody transitions decreased from 84 % to 60 % between 1990 and 2020 over the entire biome but remained highest in the northern and western Great Plains, which contributes to large scale conservation targets. These are key areas to prioritize resist opportunities. In contrast, 11 % of the biome exhibited early warning transition signals across all hierarchical scales by 2020, a fourfold increase since 1990. Lastly by 2020, 30 % of the biome exhibited early warning signals across multiple but not all scales. Here, efforts may be more effective when management is directed to conserve fragmented grassland legacies within a woody-dominated matrix and avoid large-scale monocultures of problematic encroaching woody species. Our multi-scale study indicates that 1) anchoring to the last remaining grassland core areas with no early warning of transitions and 2) strategically investing in these intact grasslands may provide the best results for grassland conservation.

Great Plains↗

RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) switch points and triggers for adaptation planning

Climate change is transforming ecosystems globally. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework has gained traction within many natural resource management institutions to help consider the decision space in response to this transformation. Because RAD helps manage for directional change, RAD choices entail considering which RAD pathway to implement and for how long. For example, one may accept a slowly changing ecosystem, but at a certain point, decide to begin resisting or directing the change an ecosystem is experiencing. Alternatively, one may begin resisting an ecosystem transformation, but ultimately realize resistance is no longer feasible based on cost or efficacy. These choices are challenging and encompass broad domains of cultural, ecological, financial, organizational, public, regulatory, and technological considerations to determine when to switch RAD pathways. We introduce the concepts of RAD switch points and triggers to help support these decision processes. We illustrate these concepts using case studies on walleye ( Sander vitreus ) stocking decisions in Wisconsin, wildfire response in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) management in Oregon, USA. Synthesizing across these examples, we delineate key points for decision makers as they (iteratively) reevaluate among the RAD pathways as conditions continue to change.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Acoustic tag retention and tagging mortality of juvenile cisco Coregonus artedi

Release of hatchery-reared juvenile cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) is an important tool for recovering Great Lakes populations, but post-release survival is unknown. Telemetry using small acoustic tags provides opportunities to assess the efficacy of hatchery-reared fish releases. However, better understanding of the tolerance of juvenile cisco to acoustic tags is needed. Juvenile cisco mortality and tag retention as a function of tag size:body size (Relative Tag Weight, RTW) was observed for 30 d post tag implantation in the laboratory. Tag loss and mortality increased with RTW. A single mortality occurred for RTW ≤ 3% and tag retention and survival was <50% for RTW > 7.0%. Logistic regression predicted >95% survival and tag retention to 30 d for RTW < 2.5%, with full survival of study fish for RTW of ≤2%. Sedation and surgery times did not affect survival of tagged fish, but results of anesthesia-only and sham surgeries highlight the need to minimize handling effects for effective acoustic telemetry studies. Our findings clarify thresholds of RTW and indicate that juvenile cisco can receive acoustic tag implants. Observing these limitations can improve the effectiveness of acoustic telemetry to assess success of cultured juvenile fish releases for conservation or restoration of native forage fish populations. Evaluation of the effects of acoustic tags over longer time periods and under environmental conditions, like those at release sites, are needed to further validate this technology.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Enhancing Great Lakes coastal ecosystems research by initiating engagement between scientists and decision-makers

A disconnect between scientific research and environmental management communities can be a detriment to both. In the case of Great Lakes coastal ecosystems, which are inherently complex and subject to uncertain effects of future climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic drivers, greater collaboration could be beneficial to their sustainability. We capture the challenges and opportunities identified by a scientist/decision-maker co-production workshop focused on the future environmental quality of Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We explain our path through the stakeholder workshop process, our challenges in translating meeting outcomes into actionable items, and lessons learned to bridge gaps between scientists and decision-makers. Additionally, we determine topics and directions identified by decision-makers that can be modeled with existing technologies and others that require further research. These topics may be incorporated into future research efforts and could serve as a shortlist of research priorities that were identified by decision-makers working with coastal wetland issues. Based on lessons learned during and after the workshop, we provide suggestions for bridging the gap between researchers and decision-makers, including sustained engagement between these groups and improved interaction through the beginning, duration, and end of research and/or management efforts.

Great Lakes↗

Predicting Lake Huron Dreissena spp. spatial distribution patterns from environmental characteristics

Invasive dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostriformis bugensis ) have altered Great Lakes ecosystems through a multitude of effects on benthic habitats, food web structure, and nutrient cycling. This study explores whether spatially continuous geographic data of environmental factors can be utilized to predict Dreissena spp. spatial distributions on a lake-wide scale. Categorical variables were also assessed for significant relationships with Dreissena spp. biomass. Point observations from the 2017 Lake Huron benthic survey under the Cooperative Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) were utilized for in situ measurements of dreissenid presence and biomass at 119 sites across Lake Huron. Basin, bathymetric zone, and tributary influence were found to have statistically significant relationships to dreissenid biomass. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model (ROC score 0.707) was developed to spatially predict dreissenid presence probability across Lake Huron from six environmental explanatory variables: April, May, and October chlorophyll, June dissolved organic carbon, January bottom temperature, and May bottom temperature. The importance of food availability and bottom temperature illuminated relationships between dreissenid mussels and periods of benthic-pelagic mixing in the spring and fall seasons. Future models could be improved through advancements in survey technology for improved geographic characterization of mussel habitat characteristics and environmental constraints.

Lake Huron↗

Visioning and conceptual framework for coordinating Great Lakes connecting waters research and monitoring

The Laurentian Great Lakes are connected via naturally occurring straits and rivers: St. Marys River, Straits of Mackinac, St. Clair-Detroit River System, Niagara River, and the St. Lawrence River. Despite the historical ecological and economic importance of these waters, international agreements (e.g., Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement) only recently explicitly named the Great Lakes Connecting Waters (GLCWs), requiring governments to address the challenges of adequate restoration and protection from historical use and degradation. Standardized research and monitoring activities are needed; however, there is no established mechanism for coordination across the GLCWs. A three-day summit in 2023 convened experts to form the initial framework for a GLCWs Collaborative to increase standardizations and knowledge transfer. Participants drafted a governance structure and priorities following the principles of collective impact but allowed for place-based specificity for local connecting water organizations. Priorities and suggestions for success included: 1) co-development of the collaborative with all rights holders, stakeholders, and surrounding communities; 2) investment in research and technology specific to GLCWs; 3) investment in information transfer and training; 4) increased communication; and 5) better integration into existing Great Lakes research, monitoring, and funding programs. Expanding participation in all local GLCWs organizations with principles of inclusivity was identified as a larger collaborative goal. Next steps in the development of a GLCWs Collaborative include increased communication and formation of working groups and obtaining funding for a dedicated organization to begin supporting activities (communication, facilitation, logistics). By using a deliberate process for establishment, the potentially slower time frame for establishment may result in increased participation and success.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

Real-time oil spill concentration assessment through fluorescence imaging and deep learning

Oil spills may pose severe ecological and socioeconomic threats, necessitating rapid and accurate environmental assessment. Traditional assessment methods used to determine the extent of a spill including gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, satellite imaging, and visual surveys, are often time-consuming, expensive, and limited by weather conditions or sampling constraints. Furthermore, these methods frequently struggle to provide real-time data crucial for prompt decision-making during spill emergencies. This study addresses these limitations by combining fluorescence imaging, deep learning, a mobile application, and a data management system for automated and real-time oil spill assessment. Our approach leverages a convolutional neural network architecture for feature extraction coupled with a custom regression model, trained and evaluated on a self-curated comprehensive dataset of 1,530 fluorescence images from two distinct oil types, a napthalenic crude oil and an aromatic-napthalenic crude oil, at concentrations ranging from 0 to 500 mg/L. The proposed approach demonstrates superior performance compared to both traditional machine learning models and more complex deep learning architectures, achieving an R² score of 0.9958 and RMSE of 9.28. The application enables rapid, cost-effective field measurements with robust data tracking and analysis capabilities. This research advances oil spill monitoring technology with a scalable solution that balances accuracy, speed, and accessibility for real-time environmental assessment and emergency response.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

Short human occupations in the Middle Palaeolithic level i of the Abric Romani rock-shelter (Capellades, Barcelona, Spain)

This paper presents a multidisciplinary study on the size of the occupied surfaces, provisioning strategies and behaviour planning at the Romani rock-shelter, using the Middle Palaeolithic record of the level i. This level is dated around 46.000 BP through U/Th ages. A behavioural interpretation is proposed, which emphasises the activities and the systemic value of the archaeological artefacts and structures. Occupation patterns are identified on the basis of the accumulations formed by human activities. These archaeological accumulations, consisting of artefacts and hearths, are easily defined visually as spatial units. The relationships between these accumulations, established by means of refitted remains, indicate that differences can be established between: 1) small and medium-sized occupation surfaces; 2) restricted and diversified provisioning strategies. This variability suggests that different modes of occupation are represented in the same archaeological level. The human activities reveal the generalization of fire technology. In almost all sizes of the occupation surfaces, the exploitation of vegetal resources near the Abric Romani marks the threshold of the restricted provisioning strategy. Limited use and fragmented knapping activities are recorded in the lithic assemblage. Faunal remains show differential transport. The exploitation of lithic, faunal and vegetal resources characterizes the diversified provisioning strategy. The small occupation surfaces and restricted provisioning strategies suggest short settlements in the Abric Romani. This shorter occupation model complements the longer diversified provisioning strategy recorded in both small and medium-sized occupied surfaces. The selection of precise elements for transport and the possible deferred consumption in the diversified provision strategy suggest an individual supply. In this respect, Neanderthal occupations in the Romani rock-shelter show a direct relation to: 1) hunting strategic resources; 2) high, linear mobility.

Journal of Human Evolution↗

Placing prairie pothole wetlands along spatial and temporal continua to improve integration of wetland function in ecological investigations

We evaluated the efficacy of using chemical characteristics to rank wetland relation to surface and groundwater along a hydrologic continuum ranging from groundwater recharge to groundwater discharge. We used 27 years (1974–2002) of water chemistry data from 15 prairie pothole wetlands and known hydrologic connections of these wetlands to groundwater to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in chemical characteristics that correspond to the unique ecosystem functions each wetland performed. Due to the mineral content and the low permeability rate of glacial till and soils, salinity of wetland waters increased along a continuum of wetland relation to groundwater recharge, flow-through or discharge. Mean inter-annual specific conductance (a proxy for salinity) increased along this continuum from wetlands that recharge groundwater being fresh to wetlands that receive groundwater discharge being the most saline, and wetlands that both recharge and discharge to groundwater (i.e., groundwater flow-through wetlands) being of intermediate salinity. The primary axis from a principal component analysis revealed that specific conductance (and major ions affecting conductance) explained 71% of the variation in wetland chemistry over the 27 years of this investigation. We found that long-term averages from this axis were useful to identify a wetland’s long-term relation to surface and groundwater. Yearly or seasonal measurements of specific conductance can be less definitive because of highly dynamic inter- and intra-annual climate cycles that affect water volumes and the interaction of groundwater and geologic materials, and thereby influence the chemical composition of wetland waters. The influence of wetland relation to surface and groundwater on water chemistry has application in many scientific disciplines and is especially needed to improve ecological understanding in wetland investigations. We suggest ways that monitoring in situ wetland conditions could be linked with evolving remote sensing technology to improve our ability to better inform decisions affecting wetland sustainability and provide periodic inventories of wetland ecosystem services to document temporal trends in wetland function and how they respond to contemporary land-use change.

North Dakota↗

A comparison of thermal infrared to fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing for evaluation of groundwater discharge to surface water

Groundwater has a predictable thermal signature that can be used to locate discrete zones of discharge to surface water. As climate warms, surface water with strong groundwater influence will provide habitat stability and refuge for thermally stressed aquatic species, and is therefore critical to locate and protect. Alternatively, these discrete seepage locations may serve as potential point sources of contaminants from polluted aquifers. This study compares two increasingly common heat tracing methods to locate discrete groundwater discharge: direct-contact measurements made with fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) and remote sensing measurements collected with thermal infrared (TIR) cameras. FO-DTS is used to make high spatial resolution (typically m) thermal measurements through time within the water column using temperature-sensitive cables. The spatialtemporal data can be analyzed with statistical measures to reveal zones of groundwater influence, however, the personnel requirements, time to install, and time to georeference the cables can be burdensome, and the control units need constant calibration. In contrast, TIR data collection, either from handheld, airborne, or satellite platforms, can quickly capture point-in-time evaluations of groundwater seepage zones across large scales. However the remote nature of TIR measurements means they can be adversely influenced by a number of environmental and physical factors, and the measurements are limited to the surface skin temperature of water features. We present case studies from a range of lentic to lotic aquatic systems to identify capabilities and limitations of both technologies and highlight situations in which one or the other might be a better instrument choice for locating groundwater discharge. FO-DTS performs well in all systems across seasons, but data collection was limited spatially by practical considerations of cable installation. TIR is found to consistently locate groundwater seepage zones above and along the streambank, but submerged seepage zones are only well identified in shallow systems (e.g. <0.5 m depth) with moderate flow. Winter data collection, when groundwater is relatively warm and buoyant, increases the water surface expression of discharge zones in shallow systems.

Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, New York, Pennsy↗

Learning from arid and urban aquatic ecosystems to inform more sustainable and resilient futures

The hydrology and aquatic ecology of arid environments has long been understudied relative to temperate regions. Yet spatially and temporally intermittent and ephemeral waters characterized by flashy hydrographs typify arid regions that comprise a substantial proportion of the Earth. Additionally, drought, intense storms, and human modification of landscapes increasingly affect many temperate regions, resulting in hydrologic regimes more similar to aridlands. Here we review the contributions of Dr. Nancy Grimm to aridland hydrology and ecology, and applications of these insights to urban ecosystems and resilience of social-ecological-technological systems. Grimm catalyzed study of nitrogen cycling in streams and characterized feedbacks between surface water-groundwater exchange, nitrogen transformations, and aquatic biota. In aridlands, outcomes of these interactions depend on short- and long-term variation in the hydrologic regime. Grimm and colleagues applied hydrological and biogeochemical insights gained from study of aridland streams to urban ecosystems, integrating engineering, social and behavioral sciences, and geography. These studies evolved from characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of urban systems (i.e., watersheds, novel aquatic systems) and its influence on nutrient dynamics to an approach that evaluated human decision-making as a driver of disturbance regimes and changes in ecosystem function. Finally, Grimm and colleagues have applied principles of urban ecology to look toward the future of cities, considering scenarios of sustainable and resilient futures. We identify cross-cutting themes and approaches that have motivated discoveries across Grimm’s multi-decadal career, including spatial and temporal heterogeneity, hydrologic connectivity and regime, disturbance, systems thinking, and resilience. Finally, we emphasize Grimm’s broad contributions to science via support of long-term research, dedication to mentoring, and extensive collaborations that facilitated transdisciplinary research.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Groundwater-Surface water interactions research: Past trends and future directions

Interactions between groundwater and surface water sustain groundwater-dependent ecosystems and regulate river temperature and biogeochemical cycles, amongst many other processes. These interactions occur in freshwater environments including rivers, springs, lakes, and wetlands, and in coastal environments via tidal pumping, submarine groundwater discharge, and seawater intrusion. Here, we explore groundwater-surface water interactions research using bibliometric analyses of titles, abstracts, and keywords from 20,275 journal papers published between 1970 and 2023 extracted from Scopus. Analyses show that research into groundwater-surface water interactions is highly multi-disciplinary, with growing contributions from the social and biological sciences. The number of groundwater-surface water interactions papers is rapidly increasing with over 1200 papers published per year since 2020. Drawing on our data-driven approach and expert knowledge, we synthesise current research trends and identify critical future research directions. Despite the thousands of papers on groundwater-surface water interactions, important processes are still difficult to quantify or predict at meaningful spatial scales to inform water-resources management. We see benefits in future groundwater-surface water interactions research focusing on: (1) using new technologies including internet-of-things-based sensors, uncrewed vehicles, and remote-sensing approaches for data collection to inform groundwater-surface water interactions at large scales, (2) seeking approaches to upscale site-specific findings to better inform management, and (3) continuing the movement towards multi-disciplinary investigations to better inform the understanding of groundwater-surface water interactions and processes that will enable better management outcomes.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Submarine geology of Hana Ridge and Haleakala Volcano's northeast flank, Maui

We present a morphostructural analysis of the submarine portions of Haleakala Volcano and environs, based upon a 4-year program of geophysical surveys and submersible explorations of the underwater flanks of Hawaiian volcanoes that was conducted by numerous academic and governmental research organizations in Japan and the U.S. and funded primarily by the Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology. A resulting reconnaissance geologic map features the 135-km-long Hana Ridge, the 3000 km 2 Hana slump on the volcano's northeast flank, and island-surrounding terraces that are the submerged parts of volcanic shields. Hana Ridge below 2000 m water depth exhibits the lobate morphology typical of the subaqueously erupted parts of Hawaiian rift zones, with some important distinctions: namely, subparallel crestlines, which we propose result from the down-rift migration of offsets in the dike intrusion zone, and an amphitheater at its distal toe, where a submarine landslide has embayed the ridge tip. Deformation of Haleakala's northeast flank is limited to that part identified as the Hana slump, which lies downslope from the volcano's submerged shield, indicating that flank mobility is also limited in plan, inconsistent with hypothesized volcanic spreading driven by rift-zone dilation. The leading edge of the slump has transverse basins and ridges that resemble the thrust ramps of accretionary prisms, and we present a model to describe the slump's development that emphasizes the role of coastally generated fragmental basalt on gravitational instability of Haleakala's northeast flank and that may be broadly applicable to other ocean-island slumps.

Hawai'i↗

The changing shapes of active volcanoes: History, evolution, and future challenges for volcano geodesy

At the very heart of volcanology lies the search for the 'plumbing systems' that form the inner workings of Earth’s active volcanoes. By their very nature, however, the magmatic reservoirs and conduits that underlie these active volcanic systems are elusive; mostly they are observable only through circumstantial evidence, using indirect, and often ambiguous, surficial measurements. Of course, we can infer much about these systems from geologic investigation of materials brought to the surface by eruptions and of the exposed roots of ancient volcanoes. But how can we study the magmatic processes that are occurring beneath Earth’s active volcanoes? What are the geometry, scale, physical, and chemical characteristics of magma reservoirs? Can we infer the dynamics of magma transport? Can we use this information to better forecast the future behavior of volcanoes? These questions comprise some of the most fundamental, recurring themes of modern research in volcanology. The field of volcano geodesy is uniquely situated to provide critical observational constraints on these problems. For the past decade, armed with a new array of technological innovations, equipped with powerful computers, and prepared with new analytical tools, volcano geodesists have been poised to make significant advances in our fundamental understanding of the behavior of active volcanic systems. The purpose of this volume is to highlight some of these recent advances, particularly in the collection and interpretation of geodetic data from actively deforming volcanoes. The 18 papers that follow report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Merapi 2010 eruption—Chronology and extrusion rates monitored with satellite radar and used in eruption forecasting

Despite dense cloud cover, satellite-borne commercial Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) enabled frequent monitoring of Merapi volcano's 2010 eruption. Near-real-time interpretation of images derived from the amplitude of the SAR signals and timely delivery of these interpretations to those responsible for warnings, allowed satellite remote sensing for the first time to play an equal role with in situ seismic, geodetic and gas monitoring in guiding life-saving decisions during a major volcanic crisis. Our remotely sensed data provide an observational chronology for the main phase of the 2010 eruption, which lasted 12 days (26 October–7 November, 2010). Unlike the prolonged low-rate and relatively low explosivity dome-forming and collapse eruptions of recent decades at Merapi, the eruption began with an explosive eruption that produced a new summit crater on 26 October and was accompanied by an ash column and pyroclastic flows that extended 8 km down the flanks. This initial explosive event was followed by smaller explosive eruptions on 29 October–1 November, then by a period of rapid dome growth on 1–4 November, which produced a summit lava dome with a volume of ~ 5 × 10 6 m 3 . A paroxysmal VEI 4 magmatic eruption (with ash column to 17 km altitude) destroyed this dome, greatly enlarged the new summit crater and produced extensive pyroclastic flows (to ~ 16 km radial distance in the Gendol drainage) and surges during the night of 4–5 November. The paroxysmal eruption was followed by a period of jetting of gas and tephra and by a second short period (12 h) of rapid dome growth on 6 November. The eruption ended with low-level ash and steam emissions that buried the 6 November dome with tephra and continued at low levels until seismicity decreased to background levels by about 23 November. Our near-real-time commercial SAR documented the explosive events on 26 October and 4–5 November and high rates of dome growth (> 25 m 3 s − 1 ). An event tree analysis for the previous 2006 Merapi eruption indicated that for lava dome extrusion rates > 1.2 m 3 s − 1 , the probability of a large (1872-scale) eruption was ~ 10%. Consequently, the order-of-magnitude greater rates in 2010, along with the explosive start of the eruption on 26 October, the large volume of lava accumulating at the summit by 4 November, and the rapid and large increases in seismic energy release, deformation and gas emissions were the basis for warnings of an unusually large eruption by the Indonesian Geological Agency's Center for Volcanology and Geologic Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) and their Volcano Research and Technology Development Center (BPPTK) in Yogyakarta — warnings that saved thousands of lives.

Merapi Volcano↗