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USGS1981

Arctic summary report: Outer Continental Shelf and onshore oil and gas activities and impacts in the Arctic : a summmary report, October 1981

Due to the amount of Federal and State oil and gas activity in the Arctic subregion and the need for comprehensive planning, State and local officials requested coverage of all oil and gas activity in the area. The first lease sale of offshore lands in the Beaufort Sea was held by the State of Alaska in 1969. The leasing process for oil and gas exploration on the Beaufort Sea Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) began in April 1976 with the first Federal lease sale in the subregion (Joint Federal/State Beaufort Sea Lease Sale) held in 1979. This sale was held jointly by the Department of the Interior and the State of Alaska because of conflicting jurisdictional claims to certain tracts in the sale area. The jurisdictional dispute will be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court, but a decision is not expected for several years. The joint sale was held on December 11, 1979. However, bids on the Federal tracts were not accepted until July 1980 because of litigation. Of the 117 tracts offered, 86 were leased as a result of the sale. Of these 86 tracts, 24 are federally managed and 62 are State-managed. Two exploration plans have been submitted for the federally managed joint lease sale (Sale BF) area. Both plans call for building a gravel island and exploratory drilling of several tracts, but no drilling permits have yet been filed. Three exploratory wells have been drilled on or into State-managed tracts. These include one well drilled directionally into Tract 75, one into Tract 76, and one well drilled from Challenge Island, a natural barrier island. Additional exploratory wells are planned for the 1981-82 drilling season on State-managed tracts. The next OCS sale in the Beaufort Sea, Lease Sale 71, is proposed for September 1982. The first two sales in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska are being planned for December 1981 and the late spring or early summer of 1982 and will involve a total of 2 million acres (809,200 hectares). In anticipation of future leasing, plans for geophysical surveys in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge are also being formulated. Four State lease sales have been held in the Arctic, in addition to the Joint Federal/State Lease Sale. These onshore sales have resulted in the leasing of lands on which a number of commercial discoveries have been made, including the discovery of the largest hydrocarbon accumulation in North America at Prudhoe Bay. Exploration, development, and production are continuing on these State lands. The State of Alaska has plans for three future lease sales in the Arctic to be held in the spring of 1982 and 1983 and the fall of 1984. Leasing and exploration are also under way on Arctic Slope Regional Corporation lands. Transportation systems in the Arctic have been developed to accommodate production on State lands. Some of the production from OCS tracts, as well as other Arctic lands, may be handled by the existing Trans-Alaska Pipeline System. However, a number of additional transportation strategies are being considered, including the Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System, additional oil pipelines, and tanker transport. The pace of oil and gas production in the Arctic will depend in part on the number and type of transportation modes available. The support bases at Prudhoe Bay are expected to be used to some extent for future activities on the OCS. However, expanded and new facilities will also be required, depending on the location of discoveries on the OCS and on other Arctic lands. The impacts resulting from OCS activities in the Arctic will be particularly important because of their contribution to the regionwide and cumulative impacts arising from Federal onshore, State, and regional corporation oil and gas exploration, development, and production in the Arctic.

Alaska↗
USGS2007

San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) Rare Plant Monitoring Review and Revision

Introduction The San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) was developed for the conservation of plants and animals in the south part of San Diego County, under the California Natural Community Conservation Planning Act of 1991 (California Department of Fish and Game) and the Federal Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (16 U.S. Code 1531-1544.) The Program is on the leading edge of conservation, as it seeks to both guide development and conserve at-risk species with the oversight of both State and Federal agencies. Lands were identified for inclusion in the MSCP based on their value as habitat for at-risk plants or plant communities (Natural Community Conservation Planning, 2005). Since its inception in the mid-1990s the Program has protected over 100,000 acres, involving 15 jurisdictions and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) in the conservation of 87 taxa. Surveys for covered species have been conducted, and management and monitoring have been implemented at some high priority sites. Each jurisdiction or agency manages and monitors their conservation areas independently, while collaborating regionally for long-term protection. The San Diego MSCP is on the forefront of conservation, in one of the most rapidly growing urban areas of the country. The planning effort that developed the MSCP was state-of-the-art, using expert knowledge, spatial habitat modeling, and principles of preserve design to identify and prioritize areas for protection. Land acquisition and protection are ahead of schedule for most jurisdictions. Surveys have verified the locations of many rare plant populations known from earlier collections, and they provide general information on population size and health useful for further conservation planning. Management plans have been written or are in development for most MSCP parcels under jurisdictional control. Several agencies are developing databases for implementation and management tracking. In many ways this program is at the cutting edge of regional conservation, testing concepts, developing techniques, and demonstrating conservation effectiveness in new and uncharted ways. Periodic program review is crucial to the continued success of the program, as it moves from a phase of planning and acquisition to one of management and monitoring. Ecological monitoring is the key to assessing the success of the protection and management implemented at each individual reserve and for the MSCP as a whole. The ultimate goal of the Program is conservation of at-risk taxa and their habitats, as well as underlying ecological processes that contribute to sustainability of the ecosystem. Monitoring guidelines and timetables were developed by Ogden Environmental and Energy Services Co., Inc. (1996), and reviewed by Conservation Biology Institute (2001). The Program is in transition now, from the initial stage of land protection to one of land management and monitoring to determine population responses to management regimes. Several agencies have already invested substantial effort in status and trend monitoring, while others are developing their monitoring plans. Management is ongoing at several sites. With both management and monitoring, collaboration and coordination among jurisdictions can be especially fruitful in conserving resources and maximizing success.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Habitat suitability index model improvements

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models were developed for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan to evaluate the potential effects of coastal restoration and protection projects on habitat for key coastal fish, shellfish, and wildlife species. These species included: eastern oyster, brown shrimp, white shrimp, blue crab, crayfish, gulf menhaden, spotted seatrout, largemouth bass, American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, brown pelican, seaside sparrow, and bald eagle. Most of these species were included in the 2017 Coastal Master Plan analyses, and the HSI models from that effort were refined and improved following the recommendations described in the technical memorandum: 2023 Coastal Master Plan Habitat Suitability Index Model Improvement Recommendations (Sable et al., 2019). In addition to model improvements, HSI models were created for seaside sparrow and bald eagle, both of which are new species for the master plan analyses. For the HSI models that are primarily literature-based, literature reviews were conducted for recent studies that could be used to improve the suitability index (SI) relationships that compose the models. As a result of this review, modifications were made to the salinity-related SIs of the oyster model including: expanding the time period used for salinity effects to spawning; adjusting the range of suitable annual average salinity to be more representative of Louisiana populations; and making oyster’s minimum salinity tolerance temperature dependent. In addition, a new SI was incorporated in the oyster HSI model that accounts for the effects of sediment deposition on oysters. The crayfish HSI model was improved by adjusting the time periods used for the SIs that describe the hydrology required for the crayfish life cycle, and the soil characteristics SI that was part of the 2017 crayfish model was removed because soil conditions do not appear to be limiting for crayfish burrow construction in coastal Louisiana. The other literature-based HSI models from the 2017 Coastal Master Plan, i.e., American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, and brown pelican, were unchanged, with the exception of a small adjustment made to the suitability of forested wetlands for gadwall. Lastly, a literature-based HSI model was created for seaside sparrow that consists of SIs related to vegetated habitat type, marsh vegetation coverage, and marsh elevation. Statistical-based HSI models were developed for brown shrimp (both small and large juvenile stages), white shrimp (small and large juvenile stages), blue crab (juvenile stage), gulf menhaden (juvenile and adult stages), spotted seatrout (juvenile and adult stages), largemouth bass, and bald eagle. The bald eagle HSI model was developed from a bald eagle nest probability of occurrence model that related nest occurrence from survey data with land cover type. The resulting model showed that combinations of forested wetlands, flotant marsh, and open water habitats were most suitable for nesting bald eagles. The 2023 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models were developed using new approaches for the formulation of the water quality and structural habitat SIs that compose the models. For the 2017 models, the water quality SI was derived using only generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to estimate the relationship between salinity, water temperature, and species’ catch. For the 2023 models, however, multiple GLMMs and generalized additive models (GAMMs) were created for each species or life stage. These alternative models were compared and a single model that performed well statistically and was ecologically reasonable was selected for the species’ water quality SI. The structural habitat SI was developed using a meta-analysis of published literature to estimate the relative importance of various estuarine habitats to the fish and shellfish species. The results of this analysis were then used to modify the 2017 structural habitat SI relationship to account for the added habitat value of submerged aquatic vegetation and oyster reefs, which are also important habitats for juvenile fish and shellfish. Similar to the 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab models, the water quality and structural habitat SIs were then combined to create the 2023 HSI models. The 2023 Coastal Master Plan HSI models were integrated with the Integrated Compartment Model (and are referred to as ICM-HSIs) and tested using environmental output from the 2017 Coastal Master Plan Future Without Action scenario. The tests showed that, in general, the models produced reasonable representations of species’ habitat distribution. Furthermore, the improvements made to the oyster, crayfish, fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models generally yielded more realistic results compared to the 2017 HSI models.

Report↗
USGS2020

Looking forward, looking back: Building resilience today Training one report. International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK, April 16-18, 2019

The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC), in partnership with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), designed the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today project (hereafter BRT) as a series of trainings and workshops with tribal community leadership and members to collaboratively develop the western science knowledge and Indigenous Knowledge necessary for tribal community adaptation plans. Rather than replicate existing tribally-focused climate adaptation training in Alaska, this pilot project sought to include a range of best practices in education, specifically in climate science and tribal engagement, and builds upon the experience and expertise of the partner teams and communities, the facilitating team, and subject-matter experts. The project had three phases related to its title and structure. The core idea of the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today project is to include multiple knowledges into adaptation plans that result in resilient communities. Looking Forward refers to the need to plan for our rapidly changing climate by critically considering current and future projected climate and its impacts on the community and Tribe. Looking Back refers to the need for any realistic tribal planning process, and subsequent planning document, to be grounded in Indigenous and local knowledge. The overarching goal of Building Resilience Today is to introduce planning tools that strengthen community capacity to plan for the future, while maintaining important values grounded in the past. Training One: The goal of the first training was to bring the cohort of community members and project team members together to work in teams to gain a common understanding of local climate impacts and longer-term climate projections at the local, regional, statewide, Arctic, and global level.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Structured decision-making workshop: Chronic wasting disease management in free-ranging cervids in Massachusetts

This document describes the results of a 2.5-day rapid decision prototype workshop that evaluated management activities for chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Massachusetts (MA) that were either proactive (i.e., actions taken prior to CWD arrival/detection) or reactive (i.e., actions taken after CWD arrival/detection). The workshop was led by members of the Wildlife Section of the MA Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (hereafter referred to as MassWildlife) and included a group of agency communications specialists and district managers. U. S. Geological Survey staff and a volunteer acted as decision facilitators and led the analysis of the decision. Chronic wasting disease is an always fatal neurological disease that has spread across much of North America and threatens the health of deer populations in locations where it occurs (reviewed by Escobar et al. 2020). CWD can spread into new areas via two general mechanisms: (1) natural spread (e.g., dispersal of CWD-infected male white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus]), and (2) anthropogenic spread (e.g., CWD spread facilitated by human intervention; Leiss et al. 2017, Escobar et al. 2020). Once CWD arrives in a state, natural resources agencies spend eight times more on CWD than agencies with no known cases; to cover these new CWD-related management activities, the natural resources agencies are typically forced to reallocate money from existing conservation priorities (Chiavacci, 2022). As of May 2024, there were 34 U.S. states and five Canadian provinces that had detected CWD positive free-ranging and/or captive animals in the family Cervidae (collectively referred to as ‘cervid’ hereafter), and the number of new states/provinces that are detecting CWD for the first time continues to grow (U. S. Geological Survey, May 2024). As of February 2024, the closest CWD positive state to MA with CWD detected in free-ranging white-tailed deer is Pennsylvania. To date, there have been no detections of CWD in MA, but testing has been limited in MA since 2012. The growing number of CWD positive states suggests that there may be increasing risk of CWD entering and establishing in MA as the number of CWD cases increases across North America. According to a 2023 survey of hunters in MA conducted by MassWildlife, 68% of hunters were concerned about CWD entering MA, and 88% of respondents said that it was at least moderately important to keep CWD out of MA; these survey results indicate that most hunters may support CWD risk reduction actions (Martin Feehan, Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, oral communication, 12 Feb 2024). In addition, 23.1% of responding deer hunters in MA have hunted for cervids in CWD-positive states/provinces in the last five years (not including states/provinces that have been able to successfully eradicate CWD following a positive detection). Participants of the survey were also asked, “how many deer have you harvested that tested positive for CWD?”. A total of three respondents said that they had one deer test positive for CWD, which, when extended to the whole population of MA deer hunters, results in an estimated 32 CWD positive deer harvested in CWD-positive states and imported into MA in the last five years. When asked about how they transport harvested deer from out of state into MA, the three participants indicated either “already processed & packaged” or “not applicable.” Note, that in MA, it is a violation of regulation to import whole carcasses or high-risk parts (e.g., head, brain, spinal tissues, bones) of any member of the Cervidae family (wild or captive) from a state/province that has detected CWD; it is legal to bring in deboned meat, cleaned skull caps, hides without the head, or a fixed taxidermy mount (Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, 2024a). To date, testing for CWD has been limited in MA since 2012. However, the data collected from the 2023 MA hunter survey suggests that there is a real risk of CWD being imported by a MA resident who has hunted in a CWD positive state. Therefore, given the higher costs of CWD management post arrival, the potential natural spread of CWD from nearby states, and the risk of CWD introduction via humanmediated cervid movement, MassWildlife is motivated to take actions that minimize the risk of CWD introduction and spread in MA with the ultimate goal of managing thriving wildlife populations and maximizing hunter and general public satisfaction, which are both parts of the MassWildlife mission. A 2.5-day rapid prototyping structured decision making workshop was held with MassWildlife staff to develop a decision framework for CWD management in MA. During the workshop, we defined the context and extent of CWD management activities in MA. Next, we identified four fundamental objectives that help achieve the mission of MassWildlife and that address stakeholder concerns. The fundamental objectives included: (1) maximizing hunter satisfaction and participation, (2) maximizing public satisfaction (non-consumptive), (3) maximizing health and sustainability of cervids, and (4) maximizing the efficiency of CWD management. Then, we generated a list of five alternatives (i.e., strategies) that varied the intensity of proactive and reactive actions. The five strategies were: (1) minimal proactive and minimal reactive actions, (2) intermediate proactive and intermediate reactive actions, (3) intensive proactive and intermediate reactive actions, (4) minimal proactive and intensive reactive actions, and (5) intensive proactive and intensive reactive actions. Lastly, we estimated the performance of each strategy on the fundamental objectives and assessed the overall performance of strategies relative to one another. We did so by first estimating the consequences of each alternative strategy on fundamental objectives using expert elicitation, and then, we elicited objective weights from MassWildlife staff to incorporate the relative importance of different fundamental objectives. Given that it is unknown when CWD will arrive in MA, we evaluated the performance of alternative strategies against fundamental objectives given three distinct scenarios for time to arrival of CWD: introduction in 2.5, 7.5, or 10+ years. The preliminary results of the rapid prototype indicate that the performance of the CWD management strategies that we evaluated depends on when CWD first arrives in MA. If CWD were to arrive in 2.5 or 7.5 years from now (February, 2024), then the ‘minimal proactive and minimal reactive’ strategy performs the best on both the deer population and cost fundamental objectives (fundamental objectives 3 & 4), but the ‘intensive proactive and intensive reactive’ strategy performs best on both of the human dimensions fundamental objectives (fundamental objectives 1 & 2) as well as the minimize CWD prevalence objective (also related to fundamental objective 3). We also found that public trust is likely to remain high across all five alternative strategies if CWD arrives after year 10, but public trust decreases if CWD arrives in year 2.5 or 7.5. After incorporating objective weights, we found that in scenarios where CWD arrives in the near-term (in years 2.5 or 7.5), an intermediate strategy (e.g., ‘intermediate proactive and intermediate reactive’ or ‘intensive proactive and intermediate reactive’) performed best, and the ‘minimal proactive and intensive reactive’ strategy performed worst. Conversely, if CWD were to arrive after 10 years, then the ‘minimal proactive and minimal reactive’ and ‘minimal proactive and intensive reactive’ strategies performed best. Collectively, these results suggest that the decision on which alternative strategy to employ is sensitive to when CWD arrives in MA. Following the discussion of the preliminary results, we identified the following four next steps. First, we discussed how a more detailed communications plan is needed and would likely alter the performance estimates of the alternative strategies on fundamental objectives 1 & 2, which were hunter and public satisfaction, respectively. The development of the communication plan would likely be easier once the alternative actions have been identified along with the audience and message. Second, a surveillance plan could be a useful tool to inform CWD management. Surveillance for CWD was performed in MA annually from 2002 to 2012 (n = 4,356 wild white-tailed deer and moose [Alces alces] samples). Limited surveillance was conducted from 2013 to 2022; and in 2023, 242 wild samples were collected. It is not clear whether MA needs a robust or minimal surveillance plan (e.g., is a minimal surveillance plan enough to detect the pathogen at the threshold that would trigger action?), or what type of invasion event the surveillance plan should target (e.g., natural vs anthropogenic spread events). The use of decision trees and a formal risk assessment may help answer these questions. Third, some of the elicited estimates from experts during this rapid prototype could be replaced with empirical data. Lastly, given that the decision was sensitive to when CWD arrived in MA and a surveillance plan would rely on the mode of introduction, forecasting and predicting the CWD invasion front and/or the likelihood of different incursion events across MA would provide valuable insights.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2023

Climate change mitigation potential of Louisiana's coastal area: Current estimates and future projections

Coastal habitats can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As Louisiana implements its climate action plan and the restoration and risk-reduction projects outlined in its 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan, it is critical to consider potential greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in coastal habitats. This study estimated the potential climate mitigation role of existing, converted, and restored coastal habitats for years 2005, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2050, which align with the Governor of Louisiana's GHG reduction targets. An analytical framework was developed that considered (1) available scientific data on net ecosystem carbon balance fluxes per habitat and (2) habitat areas projected from modeling efforts used for the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan to estimate the net GHG flux of coastal area. The coastal area was estimated as net GHG sinks of −38.4 ± 10.6 and −43.2 ± 12.0 Tg CO 2 equivalents (CO 2 e) in 2005 and 2020, respectively. The coastal area was projected to remain a net GHG sink in 2025 and 2030, both with and without the implementation of Coastal Master Plan projects (means ranged from −25.3 to −34.2 Tg CO 2 e). By 2050, with model-projected wetland loss and conversion of coastal habitats to open water due to coastal erosion and relative sea level rise, Louisiana's coastal area was projected to become a net source of GHG emissions both with and without the Coastal Master Plan projects. However, in the year 2050, the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan project implementation was projected to avoid the release of +8.8 ± 1.3 Tg CO 2 e compared with an alternative with no action. Reduction in current and future stressors to coastal habitats, including impacts from sea level rise, as well as the implementation of restoration projects could help to ensure coastal areas remain a natural climate solution.

Louisiana↗
USGS2025

Different data for different goals: Exploring trade-offs and synergies in the use of spatial data inputs to optimize conservation action in sagebrush ecosystems

Ecosystems worldwide continue to experience rapid rates of habitat and species loss. Management actions to conserve and restore functional habitats are needed to reduce these declines, but funding and resources for such actions are limited. Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) can facilitate strategic decision-making for targeted conservation planning and delivery, but complexities arise when management objectives include multiple wildlife species and ecological or management constraints, all of which can be further complicated by data uncertainty and existing conservation plans. The Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET), an R package-based decision-support tool, supports strategic ecosystem management planning across the sagebrush biome by using SCP. We adapted PReSET to better address the needs of multiple wildlife species, evaluate the effects of different ecological or management constraints on conservation outcomes, assess the influence of data uncertainty, and integrate existing conservation plans. Specifically, we developed optimization problems to identify priority sagebrush protection and restoration across the state of Wyoming, USA, and evaluated the efficacy and trade-offs of various approaches to problem design. We evaluated trade-offs in targeting multiple species compared to a single species, including using greater sage-grouse as a potential umbrella species to benefit other sagebrush-dependent wildlife. We then evaluated multi-species protection and restoration problems aimed at minimizing the risks of inadequate connectivity, climate change, and restoration failure, and accounted for data uncertainty to assess relationships between risk aversion of managers and conservation outcomes. We also developed optimization problems within conservation areas identified by an existing sagebrush conservation plan to evaluate the efficacy of guiding local-scale conservation delivery within more broadly defined conservation areas. Our results demonstrate how SCP methods can leverage novel spatial data to develop targeted decision-support resources that can facilitate landscape conservation planning and improve management outcomes across a wide array of systems and species.

Wyoming↗
USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Evaluation of landslide monitoring in the Polish Carpathians

In response to the June 15, 2010 request from the Polish Geological Institute (PGI) to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for assistance and advice regarding real-time landslide monitoring, landslide specialists from the USGS Landslide Hazard Program visited PGI headquarters and field sites in September 2010. During our visit we became familiar with characteristics of landslides in the Polish Carpathians, reviewed PGI monitoring techniques, and assessed needs for monitoring at recently activated landslides. Visits to several landslides that are monitored by PGI (the Just, Hańczowa, Szymbark, Siercza and Łasńica landslides) revealed that current data collection (monthly GPS and inclinometer surveys, hourly piezometers readings) is generally sufficient for collecting basic information about landslide displacement, depth, and groundwater conditions. Large landslides are typically hydrologically complex, and we would expect such complexity in Carpathian landslides, given the alternating shale and sandstone stratigraphy and complex geologic structures of the flysch bedrock. Consequently groundwater observations could be improved by installing several piezometers that sample the basal shear zone of each landslide being monitored by PGI. These could be supplemented by additional piezometers at shallower depths to help clarify general flow directions and hydraulic gradients. Remedial works at Hańczowa make the landslide unsuitable for monitoring as part of an early warning network. Monitoring there should focus on continued performance of the remedial works. Our suggestions for new monitoring at recently activated landslides are summarized in table 1. Displacement monitoring using extensometers and (or) GPS is a high priority at Kłodne, Łaśnica, Łazki, and Siedloki. Geomorphologic mapping of active surface features (scarps, cracks, shear zones, folds, and thrusts) in sufficient detail to reveal the kinematics of each landslide would greatly help in planning subsurface exploration and monitoring. Mapping should take advantage of existing and future airborne lidar data sets of specific areas, where available. Borehole inclinometers and piezometers would complete the basic monitoring package for these landslides. The landslide at Kłodne may be well suited for more detailed monitoring for landslide process research, although research opportunities exist at the other landslides as well. The landslide near Siedloki may be a good candidate for terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Tandem streamflow gages upstream and downstream from the Siedloki landslide, or laser distance meters to monitor advancement of the toe, may be needed to provide warning of stream blockage of Potok Milowski. A real-time warning system specifically for the Łazki landslide might be considered due to potential concerns about catastrophic movement into Międzybrodzie Reservoir. Challenges associated with the establishment of a complete real-time monitoring and early warning system are far greater than just the technical and logistical aspects of installing remote monitoring systems at a large number of landslides. Long-term maintenance of a landslide monitoring network will involve considerable effort and expense as sensors break-down from exposure to weather, landslide movement, and harsh underground environmental conditions. Once PGI’s planned pilot network of 10-20 monitored landslides is operating, a period of observation and analysis will be needed to establish appropriate alert levels and criteria for issuing alerts and warnings. Simultaneously, discussions with authorities will be needed to develop action plans for responding to landslide notifications and (or) warnings. Public resistance to landslide warnings and mandated evacuations may be high given the low historical incidence of fatalities and injuries resulting from Carpathian landslides and the small potential for warnings to reduce landslide damage to homes and land. Careful weighing of purpose, advantages, and costs of a large-scale monitoring and early warning program is needed early in the planning process and should be revisited regularly throughout pilot and final implementation. In this report, we present a generic plan for monitoring of a hypothetical Carpathian landslide that illustrates how our suggestions for each of the specific landslides could be implemented. The plan includes basic pore pressure, displacement, and weather monitoring, along with supplemental monitoring for special conditions at specific landslides. Table 2 summarizes the overall approach and basic equipment and software requirements.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Hydrologic Drought Decision Support System (HyDroDSS)

The hydrologic drought decision support system (HyDroDSS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board (RIWRB) for use in the analysis of hydrologic variables that may indicate the risk for streamflows to be below user-defined flow targets at a designated site of interest, which is defined herein as data-collection site on a stream that may be adversely affected by pumping. Hydrologic drought is defined for this study as a period of lower than normal streamflows caused by precipitation deficits and (or) water withdrawals. The HyDroDSS is designed to provide water managers with risk-based information for balancing water-supply needs and aquatic-habitat protection goals to mitigate potential effects of hydrologic drought. This report describes the theory and methods for retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis, rank correlation analysis, and drought-projection analysis. All three methods are designed to inform decisions made by drought steering committees and decisionmakers on the basis of quantitative risk assessment. All three methods use estimates of unaltered streamflow, which is the measured or modeled flow without major withdrawals or discharges, to approximate a natural low-flow regime. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis can be used by water-resource managers to evaluate relations between withdrawal plans and the potential effects of withdrawal plans on streams at one or more sites of interest in an area. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis indicates the historical risk of being below user-defined flow targets if different pumping plans were implemented for the period of record. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis also indicates the risk for creating hydrologic drought conditions caused by use of a pumping plan. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis is done by calculating the net streamflow depletions from withdrawals and discharges and applying these depletions to a simulated record of unaltered streamflow. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the persistence of hydrologic measurements from month to month for the prediction of developing hydrologic drought conditions and quantitatively indicates which hydrologic variables may be used to indicate the onset of hydrologic drought conditions. Rank correlation analysis also indicates the potential use of each variable for estimating the monthly minimum unaltered flow at a site of interest for use in the drought-projection analysis. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS is done by calculating Spearman’s rho for paired samples and the 95-percent confidence limits of this rho value. Rank correlation analysis can be done by using precipitation, groundwater levels, measured streamflows, and estimated unaltered streamflows. Serial correlation analysis, which indicates relations between current and future values, can be done for a single site. Cross correlation analysis, which indicates relations among current values at one site and current and future values at a second site, also can be done. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the risk for being in a hydrologic drought condition during the current month and the five following months with and without pumping. Drought-projection analysis also indicates the potential effectiveness of water-conservation methods for mitigating the effect of withdrawals in the coming months on the basis of the amount of depletion caused by different pumping plans and on the risk of unaltered flows being below streamflow targets. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS is done with Monte Carlo methods by using the position analysis method. In this method the initial value of estimated unaltered streamflows is calculated by correlation to a measured hydrologic variable (monthly precipitation, groundwater levels, or streamflows from an index station identified with the rank correlation analysis). Then a pseudorandom number generator is used to create 251 six-month-long flow traces by using a bootstrap method. Serial correlation of the estimated unaltered monthly minimum streamflows determined from the rank correlation analysis is preserved within each flow trace. The sample of unaltered streamflows indicates the risk of being below flow targets in the coming months under simulated natural conditions (without historic withdrawals). The streamflow-depletion algorithms are then used to estimate risks of flow being below targets if selected pumping plans are used. This report also describes the implementation of the HyDroDSS. The HyDroDSS was developed as a Microsoft Access® database application to facilitate storage, handling, and use of hydrologic datasets with a simple graphical user interface. The program is implemented in the database by using the Visual Basic for Applications® (VBA) programming language. Program source code for the analytical techniques is provided in the HyDroDSS and in electronic text files accompanying this report. Program source code for the graphical user interface and for data-handling code, which is specific to Microsoft Access® and the HyDroDSS, is provided in the database. An installation package with a run-time version of the software is available with this report for potential users who do not have a compatible copy of Microsoft Access®. Administrative rights are needed to install this version of the HyDroDSS. A case study, to demonstrate the use of HyDroDSS and interpretation of results for a site of interest, is detailed for the USGS streamgage on the Hunt River (station 01117000) near East Greenwich in central Rhode Island. The Hunt River streamgage was used because it has a long record of streamflow and is in a well-studied basin with a substantial amount of hydrologic and water-use data including groundwater pumping for municipal water supply.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2020

Fate and behavior tools related to inland spill response—Workshop on the U.S. Geological Survey’s role in Federal science support

Executive Summary There is a growing body of tools available for science support for determining the fate and behavior of industrial and agricultural chemicals that are rapidly injected (“spilled”) into aquatic environments. A 2-day roundtable-style workshop was held by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Middleton, Wisconsin, in December 2017 to describe and explore existing Federal science support for spill fate and behavior tools used for inland spills, ongoing and new fate and behavior studies, and science gaps in planning and response tools as part of the USGS Midcontinent Region’s efforts to include spill response as part of its strategic plans. A total of 28 attendees representing a variety of Federal, State, and regional entities presented on programs and tools used in various aspects of spill response. Most programs and tools discussed were for spills in riverine environments but tools and applications for spills in lakes, on land surfaces, in urban storm sewer networks, and groundwater also were discussed. A primary workshop focus was to facilitate communication and increase potential for future collaboration among agencies for inland spill science support. The role and need for more USGS science support within the inland spill community was discussed. Enhanced communication is needed within the USGS and the U.S. Department of the Interior science programs, as well as within and among other agencies that do emergency planning and response. A main conclusion of the workshop was that there are untapped resources of the USGS outlined in the agency’s science strategy that could strengthen science support for fate and behavior tools in inland areas, especially in the Upper Mississippi River, Ohio River, and Great Lakes Basins where large freshwater resources overlap with dense corridors of oil and hazardous substances, with transportation networks, and with large populations centers. Fate and behavior tools are being developed quickly for inland spill response by multiple Federal agencies in partnership with local and regional entities. Applicability of these tools ranges from planning and preparedness, to the early stages of spill response for protection of human life and property, and to the application of monitoring and models to assess the long-term consequences of spills. Key findings from the workshop, with an emphasis on potential further development of USGS science support, include the following: •The national and regional response to spills occurs within an established system that must be respected by all parties involved in spill response. The USGS’s role is to support spill responders who are physically working at a spill scene, deploying booms and using other efforts to contain and recover spilled materials. •The USGS has tools that have been used throughout spill response operations, from early response to recovery and restoration. Developing a more formal role for the USGS to participate in science support for inland spills on a consistent basis is a desired outcome. This will require the USGS to improve internal and external communication and would be best accomplished by assigning one or more coordinator positions within the agency to plan and oversee USGS spill-response efforts. More involvement of the USGS on National and Regional Response Teams, especially in the realm of the Science and Technology Subcommittees, will gofar in increasing external communication and integration of fate and behavior tools. •Rapid response to spills requires modeling and mapping of plumes and associated time-of-travel estimation for a range of stream sizes across the United States. Many existing models use USGS streamgage data and the USGS National Hydrography Dataset. Nearly all existing models would benefit from updated linkages to USGS StreamStats and its soon-to-be released time-of-travel estimates,real-time velocity, stream morphology, and slope data. Integrating USGS tools with those from other agencies could be done to better serve the larger spill response community. • A problem is that existing models to rapidly predict plume extent, as well as more followup/longer-term fate and transport models, can be unknown or unavailable to spill responders. Thus, creating and strengthening linkages among USGS scientists skilled at using these tools is needed to support spill response with the on-scene responders. • Research for inland spill fate and behavior done outside of an immediate spill response can assist with spill planning and preparedness by (1) revealing sites likely to experience spills in the future (high-risk sites) and (2) understanding how a spilled substance might behave under a range of environmental conditions. However, USGS research on this topic has been scarce and subject to funding availability. Examples include the 2010 Line 6B Spill release into the Kalamazoo River in Michigan, where the USGS provided science support for a variety of fate and behavior tools for stream and impoundment environments. A long-term research site in Bemidji, Minnesota, provides important insights into transformations and longevity of spilled oil in groundwater and groundwater-surface water interactions. • Linking stream models to other components of this inland environment, including groundwater, overland flow, and karst, is needed. Stream network data can be linked to underground conduits such as storm sewers and karst groundwater systems. Stream models can also be linked with geospatial data such as that contained in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s interactive mapping tools. • The USGS is uniquely qualified to collect water-quality data during spills in the United States because of its many geographically dispersed water science centers, its knowledge and preparedness for flood measurement and documentation, and its cadre of skilled water-quality employees. Rapid-deployment gages, used for floods, could also be used for spills if they included spill-specific sensors. Coordinated expertise at USGS water and environmental science centers can be used for monitoring spill effects and for assessing risk to water quality and ecological communities. • Scientists at the USGS have proven capable of providing science coordination and technical assistance within the Incident Command Structure at the request of the lead on-scene coordinator. This external coordination, as well as internal communication within USGS Water, Hazards, and Ecosystems Mission Areas, could be improved by establishing and naming a USGS spills coordinator. Scott Morlock, Jo Ellen Hinck, and Faith Fitzpatrick are currently (2017) serving in informal coordination roles in addition to their traditional duties.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1975

Techniques for water demand analysis and forecasting: Puerto Rico, a case study

The rapid economic growth of the Commonwealth-of Puerto Rico since 1947 has brought public pressure on Government agencies for rapid development of public water supply and waste treatment facilities. Since 1945 the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority has had the responsibility for planning, developing and operating water supply and waste treatment facilities on a municipal basis. The purpose of this study was to develop operational techniques whereby a planning agency, such as the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority, could project the temporal and spatial distribution of .future water demands. This report is part of a 2-year cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Quality Board of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, for the development of systems analysis techniques for use in water resources planning. While the Commonwealth was assisted in the development of techniques to facilitate ongoing planning, the U.S. Geological Survey attempted to gain insights in order to better interface its data collection efforts with the planning process. The report reviews the institutional structure associated with water resources planning for the Commonwealth. A brief description of alternative water demand forecasting procedures is presented and specific techniques and analyses of Puerto Rico demand data are discussed. Water demand models for a specific area of Puerto Rico are then developed. These models provide a framework for making several sets of water demand forecasts based on alternative economic and demographic assumptions. In the second part of this report, the historical impact of water resources investment on regional economic development is analyzed and related to water demand .forecasting. Conclusions and future data needs are in the last section.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1981

Hydrologic effects of proposed changes in management practices, Winnebago Pool, Wisconsin

Various changes in the management practices for the Winnebago pool have been proposed. The objectives of the proposed changes are protecting wetlands adjacent to the lakes in the pool and assuring adequate flow in the Fox River downstream from Lake Winnebago. Three proposed operation plans for the Winnebago pool were studied to determine the effects on lake stage and discharge. A digital reservoir model simulated daily lake stage and discharge from the Winnebago pool. Inflow for this simulation was computed from daily discharge, recorded at Rapide Croche Dam, and daily stage, recorded at Oshkosh. This computed inflow is net inflow, combining the effects of streamflow, precipitation, evaporation, and net ground-water inflow. The model was adapted to simulate operation of the Winnebago pool according to each of the proposed plans. Because the important features of each operation plan were expressed in terms of stages to be attained at certain dates, simulated discharge was adjusted daily to keep simulated lake stage close to that specified in the plan. The simulated lake stage for each of the proposed plans exceeded the allowable maximum in some years. However, the simulated stage exceeded the allowable maximum less frequently and for shorter periods than did the observed stage. For the 61 years simulated (water years 1918-78), the simulated 7-day, 10- year low flow ((57,10) at Rapide Croche Dam was 1,000 ft^/s compared with 900 ft^/s for the observed record. The 7-day, 2-year low flow (Qy 2) was 1,500 ft^/s (simulated) versus 1,600 ft3/s (observed). The model predicted that executing the proposed operation plan would result in monthly Q7 JQ for August and September of 1,100 ft-Vs. This is no change for August and a 12-percent increase for September. In addition, the study illustrated that the discharge from the Winnebago pool could be managed to guarantee that the discharge in the Fox River downstream would not fall below a specified discharge up to 1,500 ft^/s. In most years this would have no effect on the stage of the pool. In a few years there would be a conflict between releasing water from the pool to maintain the desired discharge and maintaining water levels above the required minimum stage. The frequency of this possible conflict varies with the level of discharge desired in the Fox River from 1 year in 60 for a discharge of 1,100 ft^/s to about 1 year in 15 for a discharge of 1,500 ft^/s.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Challenges of implementing a multi-agency monitoring and adaptive management strategy for federally threatened Chinook salmon and steelhead trout during and after dam removal in the Elwha River

Adaptive management, a process of planning, implementing, and evaluating management strategies, is often recommended for monitoring ecological systems. However, few examples of successful implementation and retrospective case studies exist. We provide a case study of adaptively managing hatchery-assisted protection and recovery for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and winter steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ) during and after the removal of two large mainstem dams in the Elwha River, WA. We summarize key aspects of the monitoring and adaptive management plan over the last decade and highlight successes, challenges, and complications during the plan’s implementation. The Elwha Monitoring and Adaptive Management Guidelines included a trigger-based system for moving through four phases of recovery that included preservation, recolonization, local adaptation, and viable natural population, each with differing levels of hatchery production as the management actions. The monitoring component of the plan has been very successful, providing critical data to guide management actions that otherwise may not have occurred and, opportunistically, provided data for other native species in the Elwha River. Implementing adaptive management provided mixed results and was at times hindered by divergent management goals among project partners, the inflexibility of the Endangered Species Act regulatory requirements as implemented for this project, and conflicting information among guidance documents. We learned that some metrics and triggers in the plan were ill-defined or too difficult to measure in the field. In some cases, the performance indicators and/or triggers were successfully modified to incorporate what was learned; however, in other cases, we were unable to revise the values due to differing opinions among partners. The ability to reach consensus on revised triggers appeared to be influenced by the recovery trajectory of the species involved. The implemented adaptive management strategy resulted in substantial collaboration and learning, which resulted in revised management strategies, but was imperfect. Sufficient long-term funding is necessary to implement a well-designed monitoring program and could benefit from including a defined leadership position to shepherd and facilitate a multi-stakeholder adaptive management program. Additionally, incorporating adaptive management into legally binding conditions under the Endangered Species Act is feasible, but requires substantial pre-planning in close coordination with regulatory agencies.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Assessing policy effectiveness trends in nonindigenous aquatic species introduction in the Ohio River basin

Aquatic invasive species (AIS) create costly, detrimental effects when established. Recognition of this in the United States reached a threshold in 1990 with the federal passage of the Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act. This act created six regional panels, the national Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force, and incentivized state-level AIS planning. The management of the Ohio River basin fell under the Mississippi River Basin Panel and the state-led Mississippi Interstate Cooperative Resource Association, which developed a joint action plan in 2010 to prevent, contain, and manage AIS. All Ohio River basin states besides West Virginia created aquatic nuisance species plans between 1999 and 2021. This study aims to utilize the best available data, the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database, to examine how legislative and planning milestones have influenced the rate of new AIS arrivals and the spread of existing and new AIS. Arrival and spread of AIS were assessed at the HUC-8 scale (8-digit hydrological unit code) along the Ohio, Wabash, Cumberland, Alleghany, Monongahela, and Tennessee rivers. A near-linear increase in new AIS across all rivers was determined. Most AIS species (35–55%) did not spread beyond the HUC they were first detected in, while less than 10% spread to all HUCs in a river. The findings indicate no clear correlation between legislative and planning milestones and changes in AIS spread. More work could help to fill data gaps in detecting and monitoring AIS through coordinated local and regional programs, as expanding the quality and quantity of data collection efforts can improve understanding of AIS dynamics, assessments of management effectiveness, and inform future policy. Future work could expand the analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of policy and planning programs in reducing AIS, considering the variability in on-the-ground approaches and spread prevention efforts across states.

Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mis↗
USGS2002

Threats to desert tortoise populations: a critical review of the literature

Decision in resource management are generally based on a combination of sociopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, and may be biased by personal values. These three components often contradict each other resulting in controversy. Controversies can usually be reduced when solid scientific evidence is used to support or refute a decision. However, it is important to recognize that data often do little to alter antagonists' positions when differences in values are the bases if the dispute. But, supporting data can make the decision more defensible, both legally and ethically, especially if the data supporting all opposing viewpoints are included in the decision-making process. Resource management decisions must be made using the best scientific information currently available. However, scientific data vary in two important measures of quality: reliability and validity. The reliability of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observations or conclusion can be repeated. Validity of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observation or conclusion reflects what actually occurs in nature. How the data are collected strongly affects the reliability of validity of ecological conclusions that can be made. Research data potentially relevant to management come from different sources, and the source often provides clues to the reliability and, to a certain extent, validity of data. Understanding the quality of data being used to make management decisions helps to separate the philosophical or value-based aspects of arguments from the objective ones, thus helping to clarify the decisions and judgments that need to be made. The West Mojave Plan is a multispecies, bioregional plan for the management of natural resources within a 9.4 million-acre area of the Mojave Desert in California. The plan addresses the legal requirements for the recovery of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agazzizii ), a threatened species, but also covers an additional approximately 80 species of plants and animals assigned special status by the Bureau of Land Management, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Within the planning area, 28 separate jurisdictions (counties, cities, towns, military installations, etc.) seek programmatic prescriptions that will facilitate streamlined environmental review, result in expedited authorization for development projects, and protect listed and unlisted species into the foreseeable future to avoid or minimize conflicts between proposed development and species' conservation and recovery. All of the scientific data available concerning the biology and management of these approximately 80 species and their habitats must be evaluated to develop a scientifically credible plan. This document provides an overview and evaluation of the knowledge of the major threats to the persistence and recovery of desert tortoise populations. I was specifically asked to evaluate the scientific veracity of the data and reports available. I summarize the data presently available with particular focus on the West Mojave Desert, evaluate the scientific integrity of the data. and identify major gaps in the available knowledge. I do not attempt to provide in-depth details on each study or threat; for more details I encourage the reader to consult the individual papers or reports city throughout this report (many of which are available at most university libraries and at the West Mojave Plan office in Riverside, California). I also do not attempt to characterize or evaluate the past or present management actions, except where they have direct bearing on evaluation of threats, nor do I attempt, for the most part, to acquire, generate, or evaluate new or existing, but uninterpreted data.

California↗
USGS2017

Are coastal managers ready for climate change? A case study from estuaries along the Pacific coast of the United States

A key challenge for coastal resource managers is to plan and implement climate change adaptation strategies inlight of uncertainties and competing management priorities. In 2014, we held six workshops across estuaries along the Pacific coast of North America with over 150 participants to evaluate resource managers' perceived level of understanding of climate change science, where they obtain information, how they use this knowledge, and their preparedness for incorporating climate change into their management decisions. We found that most resource managers understood the types of climate change impacts likely to occur in their estuaries, but often lacked the scientific information to make decisions and plan effectively. Managers stated that time, money, and staff resources were the largest obstacles in their efforts. Managers identified that they learned most of their information from peers, scientific journals, and the Internet and indicated that sea-level rise was their greatest concern. There was, however, variation in managers' levels of readiness and perceived knowledge within and among workshop locations. The workshops revealed that some regions don't have the information they need or the planning capacity to effectively integrate climate change into their management, with eight out of fifteen site comparisons showing a significant difference between their level of preparedness (F 5,26 = 6.852; p = 0.0003), and their willingness to formally plan (F 5,26 = 12.84; p = 0.000002). We found that Urban estuaries were significantly different from Mixed Use and Rural estuaries, in having access to information and feeling more prepared to conduct climate change planning and implementation (F 2,29 = 17.34; p = 0.00001). To facilitate climate change preparedness more comprehensive integration of science into management decisions is essential.

Ocean and Coastal Management↗
USGS2021

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs.

Conservation Biology↗