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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources

Depth determination of the 2010 El Mayor‐Cucapah earthquake sequence (M ≥ 4.0)

The 2010 M W 7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah earthquake ruptured a zone of ~120 km in length in northern Baja California. The geographic distribution of this earthquake sequence was well constrained by waveform relocation. The depth distribution, however, was poorly determined as it is near the edge of, or outside, the Southern California Seismic Network. Here we use two complementary methods to constrain the focal depths of moderate‐sized events ( M ≥ 4.0) in this sequence. We first determine the absolute earthquake depth by modeling the regional depth phases at high frequencies (~1 Hz). We mainly focus on Pn and its depth phases pPn and sPn , which arrive early at regional distance and are less contaminated by crustal multiples. To facilitate depth phase identification and to improve signal‐to‐noise ratio, we take advantage of the dense Southern California Seismic Network and use array analysis to align and stack Pn waveforms. For events without clear depth phases, we further determine their relative depths with respect to those with known depths using differential travel times of the Pn , direct P , and direct S phases recorded for event pairs. Focal depths of 93 out of 122 M ≥ 4.0 events are tightly constrained with absolute uncertainty of about 1 km. Aftershocks are clustered in the depth range of 3–10 km, suggesting a relatively shallow seismogenic zone, consistent with high surface heat flow in this region. Most aftershocks are located outside or near the lower terminus of coseismic high‐slip patches of the main shock, which may be governed by residual strains, local stress concentration, or postseismic slip.

Baja California↗

Evaluation of nonpoint-source contamination, Wisconsin: water year 1999

The objective of the watershed-management evaluation monitoring program in Wisconsin is to evaluate the effectiveness of best-management practices (BMPs) for controlling nonpoint-source pollution in rural and urban watersheds. This progress report provides a summary of the data collected by the U.S Geological Survey for the program and a discussion of the results from several different detailed analyses conducted within this program. A land-use and best-management-practice inventory is ongoing for each evaluation monitoring project to track the different sources of nonpointsource pollution in each watershed and to document implementation of best-management programs that may cause changes in the water quality of streams. Updated information is gathered each year, mapped, and stored in a geographic-information-system database. Summaries of BMP-implementation data collected through the 1999 water year are presented in this report. Suspended sediment and total phosphorus storm-load and annual-load data are summarized for eight rural sites. For all 8 rural sites a sufficient number of pre-BMP storm samples have been collected; for two of the sites (Brewery and Garfoot Creeks), a sufficient number of post-BMP storm samples have been collected to allow for a final assessment of the effectiveness of the BMPs. For the remaining sites, numerous transitional storm samples have been collected, but in all cases BMP implementation has lagged such that there are insufficient post-BMP storm samples for final analysis. For two sites (Rattlesnake and Kuenster Creeks) there are not enough planned BMPs to warrant further data collection. Continuous dissolved-oxygen data collected at 5 rural sites are summarized. In terms of instantaneous concentrations when comparing pre-BMP data to transitional and post-BMP data, the general trend is a reduction in the number of days that the dissolved oxygen concentration was less than the state standard. These results are anecdotal, however; the differences have not been rigorously tested statistically. For a level of dissolved oxygen sustained over a continuous hour, the results are mixed. In general the number of days with standard violations has decreased, but there are notable exceptions. For the four urban streams, the pre-BMP data were examined to determine the level of improvement that could potentially be detected with a statistical analysis. Regression analyses were performed relating constituent loads of suspended solids, total phosphorus and total copper to various independent variables, including seasonal terms and variables related to rainfall. On the basis of the residuals from the regressions, there is a wide range of potential change that could be detected with an analysis of pre- and post-BMP loads. This is likely a result of the high degree of variability in the data, particularly from site to site. For suspended solids, total phosphorus, and total recoverable copper the minimum detectable changes ranges from 20-80, 30-70 and 30-90 percent, respectively. For two of the eight rural streams (Rattlesnake and Kuenster Creeks) minimal BMP implementation has occurred, hence a comparison of pre- BMP and data collected after BMP implementation began is not warranted. For two other rural streams (Brewery and Garfoot Creeks), BMP implementation is complete. For the four remaining rural streams (Bower, Otter, Eagle, and Joos Valley Creeks), the pre-BMP load data were compared to the transitional data to determine if significant reductions in the loads have occurred as a result of the BMP implementation to date. For all sites, the actual constituent loads for suspended solids and total phosphorus exhibit no statistically significant reductions after BMP installation. Multiple regressions were used to remove some of the natural variability in the data. Based on the residual analysis, for Otter Creek, there is a significant difference in the suspended-solids regression residuals between the pre-BMP and transitional periods, indicating a potential reduction as a result of the BMP implementation after accounting for natural variability. For Joos Valley Creek, the residuals for suspended solids and total phosphorus both show a significant reduction after accounting for natural variability. It is possible that the other sites will also show statistically significant reductions in suspended solids and total phosphorus if additional BMPs are implemented.

Wisconsin↗

Characterization of salinity and selenium loading and land-use change in Montrose Arroyo, western Colorado, from 1992 to 2010

Salinity and selenium are naturally occurring and perva-sive in the lower Gunnison River Basin of Colorado, includ-ing the watershed of Montrose Arroyo. Although some of the salinity and selenium loading in the Montrose Arroyo study area is from natural sources, additional loading has resulted from the introduction of intensive irrigation in the water-shed. With increasing land-use change and the conversion from irrigated agricultural to urban land, land managers and stakeholders need information about the long-term effects of land-use change on salinity and selenium loading. In response to the need to advance salinity and selenium science, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, and Colorado River Water Conservation District, developed a study to characterize salinity and selenium loading and how salinity and selenium sources may relate to land-use change in Montrose Arroyo. This report characterizes changes in salinity and selenium loading to Montrose Arroyo from March 1992 to February 2010 and the magnitude of land-use change between unirrigated desert, irrigated agricultural, and urban land-use/land-cover types, and discusses how the respective loads may relate to land-use change. Montrose Arroyo is an approximately 8-square-mile watershed in Montrose County in western Colorado. Salinity and selenium were studied in Montrose Arroyo in a 2001 study as part of a salinity- and selenium-control lateral project. The robust nature of the historical dataset indicated that Montrose Arroyo was a prime watershed for a follow-up study. Two sites from the 2001 study were used to monitor salinity and selenium loads in Montrose Arroyo in the follow-up study. Over the period of 2 water years and respective irrigation seasons (2008-2010), 27 water-quality samples were collected and streamflow measurements were made at the historical sites MA2 and MA4. Salinity and selenium concen-trations, loads, and streamflow were compared between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. No significant differences in streamflow, salinity (concen-tration and load), or selenium (concentration and load) were found at MA4 between the pre-lateral project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods. The statistical analysis indicated no significant dif-ferences in streamflow or salinity (both concentration and load) between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods or between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2; however, selenium concentrations and loads were significantly greater between the pre-lateral-project and post-growth periods and between the post-lateral-project and post-growth periods at MA2. Land-use change between MA4 and MA2 may have contributed to the determined differences in selenium values, but the specific mechanisms causing the increases between periods are unknown. The size of the urbanized area in Montrose Arroyo was quantified for 1993, 2002, and 2009 by using a geographic information system (GIS) with imagery from the specified years. The greatest change in land use from 1993 to 2009 was the increase of urban land due to conversion from irrigated agricultural land. The conversion of previously unirrigated desert to urban land or irrigated agriculture could become more common if urbanization and development expands into the eastern part of the watershed because a majority of the un-urbanized land in eastern Montrose Arroyo is unirrigated desert. By applying GIS to the City of Montrose 2008 com-prehensive growth plan, it was estimated that approximately 786 acres of previously irrigated agricultural land will be converted to urban land and 689 acres of unirrigated desert will be converted to urban land under the plan scenario. New development on previously unirrigated land in shale areas would likely increase the potential for mobilization of sele-nium and salinity from new sources to Montrose Arroyo and the Lower Gunnison River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Use of retrospective data to assess ecotoxicological monitoring needs for terrestrial vertebrates residing in Atlantic coast estuaries

The “Contaminant Exposure and Effects–Terrestrial Vertebrates” (CEE-TV) database contains 4,336 records of ecotoxicological information for free-ranging amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals residing in Atlantic and Florida Gulf coast estuaries and their drainages. To identify spatial data gaps, those CEE-TV records for which the specific study location were known ( n =2,740) were combined with watershed and wildlife management unit boundaries using Geographic Information Systems software. The US Environmental Protection Agency's Index of Watershed Indicators (IWI), which classifies watersheds based on water quality and their vulnerability to pollution, was used to prioritize these data gaps. Of 136 watersheds in the study area, 15 that are classified by the IWI as having water quality problems or high vulnerability to pollution lacked terrestrial vertebrate ecotoxicological monitoring or research in the past decade. Older studies within some of these watersheds documented high levels of contaminants in wildlife tissues. Of 90 National Wildlife Refuge units, 42 without current data fall within watersheds of concern. Of 40 National Park units larger than 1 km 2 , 17 without current data fall within watersheds of concern. Issues encountered in this analysis highlighted the need for spatially and temporally replicated field monitoring programs that utilize random sampling. Without data from such studies, it will be difficult to perform unbiased assessments of regional trends in contaminant exposure and effects in terrestrial vertebrates.

Ecotoxicology↗

Reflected seismic waves and their effect on strong shaking during the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

Our data indicate that critical and postcritical reflections from crustal layers and the Moho produced increased shaking at discrete distances along the San Francisco Peninsula during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. These reflections may have produced an increase in amplitude that is as much as 10 times greater than that of the direct arrival. Peak amplitude-distance patterns measured from explosive sources, synthetic seismograms, aftershocks, and the mainshock of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake indicate that (1) point sources, such as explosions, produce similar peak amplitude-distance relations as distributed, double-couple sources when the crustal structure is approximately a Poisson solid; (2) peak amplitudes from smaller point sources (explosions) may be scaled to those of larger sources (earthquakes); and (3) reflections caused a pattern of high amplitudes at specific distances along the San Francisco Peninsula that geographically correlates with areas of reported damage following from the Loma Prieta mainshock. Our study indicates that critical and postcritical reflections were stronger influences on the locations of strong shaking than local geology because a number of sites around the San Francisco Bay that are underlain by unconsolidated sediments experienced much less shaking than sites that were underlain by hard rock. Furthermore, some severely shaken hard-rock sites were farther from the epicenter than many of the less severely shaken “soft-sediment” sites. Models of the regional crustal structure and seismic-wave propagation paths may be useful in identifying sites around the San Francisco Bay region that are at risk due to reflected seismic energy, and this type of analysis may be useful in other seismically active regions.

California↗

Hurricane Sandy impacts on coastal wetland resilience

The goal of this research was to evaluate the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on surface elevation trends in estuarine marshes located across the northeast region of the United States from Virginia to Maine using data from an opportunistic (in other words, not strategic) and collaborative network (from here on, an opportunistic network) of surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) stations. First, we built a data-base of metadata for 965 individual stations from 96 unique geographical locations that included the location, geomorphic setting, and wetland type for each SET-MH station. The dominant estuarine settings included in the analyses were back-barrier lagoonal marshes and emergent marshes along embayments and tidal tributaries. We then calculated prestorm elevation trends to compare to poststorm elevation measurements to determine the storm impact on each station trend. We hypothesized that the effect of Hurricane Sandy on marsh elevation trends would differ by position relative to landfall (right or left) and distance from landfall in southern New Jersey, as both of these variables influence the presence or absence of storm surge as a result of the physical characteristics of tropical cyclones (in other words, strongest winds typically occur to the right of landfall). Storm surge was spatially less extensive and less deep (~1 meter [m]) in marshes located to the left (in other words, south) of landfall compared to marshes located to the right (in other words, north) of landfall where storm surge covered a larger area and was deeper (3–4 m). About 63 percent of 223 eligible stations had a poststorm trend that was similar to the prestorm trend (in other words, less than ±5 millimeters [mm]), indicating little storm impact on elevation trends at those sites. The remaining 37 percent of stations exhibited significant poststorm deviations from the prestorm trend (in other words, greater than ±5 mm). Of these, stations located to the left of landfall had a significant and greater deviation in their elevation trend, and the deviation was more likely to be positive (elevation gain) compared to marshes located to the right of landfall, which had a significant deviation in their elevation trend that was more likely to be negative (elevation loss). This finding is directly related to storm surge impacts on marsh sediment deposition, where deep storm surge (3–4 m) results in sediment deposition in habitats inland of coastal marshes but less so in the marshes themselves. Substrate compaction by the storm surge over-burden may have contributed to elevation loss, but this was not measured because sufficient marker horizon data were not available for analysis. In contrast, to the left of landfall the wind-driven flooding of sediment laden water pushed into the headwaters of rivers and small bays with an ~1 m surge, and resulted in more prevalent sediment deposition on the marsh surfaces and elevation gain. In general, the findings support previous research showing that the physical characteristics of the storm (for example, wind speed, storm surge height, impact angle of landfall) combined with the local wetland conditions (for example, marsh productivity, groundwater level, tide height) are important factors determining a storm’s impact on soil elevation, and that the soil elevation response can vary widely among multiple wetland sites impacted by the same storm and among different storms for the same wetland site. The final objective of this project was to create a framework using metadata from the opportunistic network of SET-MH stations that could be used to develop a strategic monitoring network designed to address specific climate change impacts and related phenomena identified by land managers and stakeholders. We evaluated the spatial distribution and density of SET-MH stations in relation to geographic coverage, marsh setting, availability of public land, and historical storm surge footprints and hurricane return intervals in order to identify gaps in our understanding of risk and our ability to assess it. Analyses revealed that the general geographic coverage of SET-MH stations is limited given the low percentage of marsh patches with stations, low density of stations, the clumped distribution of stations, and the often limited and uneven distribution of stations in wetlands with a high historical frequency of hurricane strikes and storm surge impacts. These findings can be used by managers and planners to inform the creation of a strategic monitoring network that can, in turn, inform management and adaptation plans for coastal resources in the region. Final plan designs will need to consider financial and infrastructural support required for station maintenance, as well as data collection and management over the long term.

Open-File Report↗

Evaluation of threatened, endangered, and rare fish species and communities of the St. Lawrence River and its tributaries in the United States

Biodiversity is responsible for important ecological processes like productivity and ecosystem stability, and rare species are a major component of biodiversity. Rarity increases a species' vulnerability to disturbances and also makes them difficult to study. Globally, species of freshwater systems are some of the most threatened, and evaluation of rare freshwater species and their habitats is needed to help preserve natural flexibility and ecological function. We conducted an analysis of full fish communities of the upper St. Lawrence River and its major US tributaries, with the goals of determining species locations and abundances, associated environmental conditions, the distribution of distinct fish assemblages across the landscape (with emphasis on communities supporting rare species), and potential threats. From 2009 to 2015, the US Geological Survey (USGS) and Saint Regis Mohawk Tribe (SRMT) worked together using standardized methods to collect community samples within 4 different aquatic realms (shallow and deep lentic, and small and large lotic systems) and determine species-specific fish abundances, frequencies of occurrence, and associated habitat signatures and spatial distributions. Distinct fish assemblages and associated habitat conditions were objectively identified by multivariate and hypothesis-testing methods. We used a geographic information system (GIS) to spatially associate habitat, biotic, and landscape attributes within each stream reach throughout the study area, facilitating quantification of distribution patterns. Comparisons with historical data provided estimates of loss or gain of threatened and endangered species (T&E) colonies. We developed a disturbance index to highlight potential threats to aquatic species. More than 140,000 fishes of 87 species were collected from a total of 1140 sample sites, covering 278 stream reaches, including the endangered Notropis anogenus (Pugnose Shiner), and threatened Hiodon tergisus (Mooneye), Etheostoma pellucidum (Eastern Sand Darter), and Acipenser fulvescens (Lake Sturgeon). We identified 50 distinct fish assemblages differing in species composition, abundance, and/or diversity, but only 13 of those assemblages included a T&E species. The rareness, extent, and patchiness of fish assemblages created a mosaic of fish communities across the landscape, from headwaters to the mainstem of the St. Lawrence River. Comparisons with historic surveys (1978–2008) showed a stable number of T&E species colonies or an increase for some species. The geographic distribution of multimetric disturbance index values showed where combinations of disturbances to fish habitats might affect rare fish species and aquatic communities in the region. The species–habitat associations and fish assemblage distributions can be used for evaluation of species, communities, or habitats that may need protection or restoration.

St. Lawrence River study area↗

Simulation of groundwater flow and the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the Willamette Basin and Central Willamette subbasin, Oregon

Full appropriation of tributary streamflow during summer, a growing population, and agricultural needs are increasing the demand for groundwater in the Willamette Basin. Greater groundwater use could diminish streamflow and create seasonal and long-term declines in groundwater levels. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) cooperated in a study to develop a conceptual and quantitative understanding of the groundwater-flow system of the Willamette Basin with an emphasis on the Central Willamette subbasin. This final report from the cooperative study describes numerical models of the regional and local groundwater-flow systems and evaluates the effects of pumping on groundwater and surface‑water resources. The models described in this report can be used to evaluate spatial and temporal effects of pumping on groundwater, base flow, and stream capture. The regional model covers about 6,700 square miles of the 12,000-square mile Willamette and Sandy River drainage basins in northwestern Oregon—referred to as the Willamette Basin in this report. The Willamette Basin is a topographic and structural trough that lies between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range and is divided into five sedimentary subbasins underlain and separated by basalts of the Columbia River Basalt Group (Columbia River basalt) that crop out as local uplands. From north to south, these five subbasins are the Portland subbasin, the Tualatin subbasin, the Central Willamette subbasin, the Stayton subbasin, and the Southern Willamette subbasin. Recharge in the Willamette Basin is primarily from precipitation in the uplands of the Cascade Range, Coast Range, and western Cascades areas. Groundwater moves downward and laterally through sedimentary or basalt units until it discharges locally to wells, evapotranspiration, or streams. Mean annual groundwater withdrawal for water years 1995 and 1996 was about 400 cubic feet per second; irrigation withdrawals accounted for about 80 percent of that total. The upper 180 feet of productive aquifers in the Central Willamette and Southern Willamette subbasins produced about 70 percent of the total pumped volume. In this study, the USGS constructed a three-dimensional numerical finite-difference groundwater-flow model of the Willamette Basin representing the six hydrogeologic units, defined in previous investigations, as six model layers. From youngest to oldest, and [generally] uppermost to lowermost they are the: upper sedimentary unit, Willamette silt unit, middle sedimentary unit, lower sedimentary unit, Columbia River basalt unit, and basement confining unit. The high Cascade unit is not included in the groundwater-flow model because it is not present within the model boundaries. Geographic boundaries are simulated as no-flow (no water flowing in or out of the model), except where the Columbia River is simulated as a constant hydraulic head boundary. Streams are designated as head-dependent-flux boundaries, in which the flux depends on the elevation of the stream surface. Groundwater recharge from precipitation was estimated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a watershed model that accounts for evapotranspiration from the unsaturated zone. Evapotranspiration from the saturated zone was not considered an important component of groundwater discharge. Well pumping was simulated as specified flux and included public supply, irrigation, and industrial pumping. Hydraulic conductivity values were estimated from previous studies through aquifer slug and permeameter tests, specific capacity data, core analysis, and modeling. Upper, middle and lower sedimentary unit horizontal hydraulic conductivity values were differentiated between the Portland subbasin and the Tualatin, Central Willamette, and Southern Willamette subbasins based on preliminary model results.

Oregon↗

Temporal and spatial changes in Myotis lucifugus acoustic activity before and after white-nose syndrome on Fort Drum Army Installation, New York, USA

Changes to bat distribution and habitat associations at the local to sub-landscape scale in the post white-nose syndrome (WNS) environment have received little attention to date despite being critical information for managers. To better understand the spatial nature of bat population declines, we modelled both activity patterns and occupancy from acoustic surveys for the Myotis lucifugus (little brown bat) on Fort Drum Military Installation in New York, USA over 15 summers (2003–2017) that span the pre-WNS, WNS-advent (2008) and post-WNS periods, using a set of generalized linear mixed models and geospatial analysis. Our best supported model indicated significant differences between years with significant declines in activity post-WNS. M. lucifugus activity was most closely associated with woody wetland habitats over the study period, however, the spatial patterns of high activity areas were variable over years, with the areal extent of these high activity areas decreasing post-WNS. Our best supported occupancy model varied by year. However, the null occupancy model [Ψ(.)] was either competing (within 2 ΔAIC units) or was the best supported model. Meaning that none of our environmental variables seemed to impact occupancy, and when they did, these differences were not significant. There was high disagreement between our relative activity models and predictions compared to our occupancy models, suggesting that geographic spatial scale and the resolution of the data impacts model outcome. Our results indicate that continued acoustic monitoring of bat species in the Northeast to assess ongoing temporal and spatial changes in habitat associations and to provide direction for future mist-netting studies should rely more on relative activity as the metric of choice rather than site occupancy.

New York↗

Hillslope chemical weathering across Paraná, Brazil: a data mining-GIS hybrid approach

Self-organizing map (SOM) and geographic information system (GIS) models were used to investigate the nonlinear relationships associated with geochemical weathering processes at local (~100 km 2 ) and regional (~50,000 km 2 ) scales. The data set consisted of 1) 22 B-horizon soil variables: P, C, pH, Al, total acidity, Ca, Mg, K, total cation exchange capacity, sum of exchangeable bases, base saturation, Cu, Zn, Fe, B, S, Mn, gammaspectrometry (total count, potassium, thorium, and uranium) and magnetic susceptibility measures; and 2) six topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, hydrological accumulated flux, horizontal curvature and vertical curvature. It is characterized at 304 locations from a quasi-regular grid spaced about 24 km across the state of Paraná. This data base was split into two subsets: one for analysis and modeling (274 samples) and the other for validation (30 samples) purposes. The self-organizing map and clustering methods were used to identify and classify the relations among solid-phase chemical element concentrations and GIS derived topographic models. The correlation between elevation and k-means clusters related the relative position inside hydrologic macro basins, which was interpreted as an expression of the weathering process reaching a steady-state condition at the regional scale. Locally, the chemical element concentrations were related to the vertical curvature representing concave–convex hillslope features, where concave hillslopes with convergent flux tends to be a reducing environment and convex hillslopes with divergent flux, oxidizing environments. Stochastic cross validation demonstrated that the SOM produced unbiased classifications and quantified the relative amount of uncertainty in predictions. This work strengthens the hypothesis that, at B-horizon steady-state conditions, the terrain morphometry were linked with the soil geochemical weathering in a two-way dependent process: the topographic relief was a factor on environmental geochemistry while chemical weathering was for terrain feature delineation.

Parana↗

Mercury methylation and bioaccumulation in Sinclair Inlet, Kitsap County, Washington

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the transformation of mercury to bioavailable methylmercury in Sinclair Inlet, Kitsap County, Washington, and assessed the effect of the transformation processes on the mercury burden in marine organisms and sediment. In August 2008, samples of sediment, water, and biota from six sites in Sinclair Inlet and three bays representative of Puget Sound embayments were collected. The extensive sediment sampling included analysis of methylmercury in sediment and porewater, estimates of methylation production potential, and analyses of ancillary constituents associated with organic carbon and reduction-oxidation (redox) conditions to assist in interpreting the mercury results. Analyses of methylmercury in water overlying incubated cores provided an estimate of the release of methylmercury to the water column. Collection of samples for mercury species in the aqueous, particulate (suspended solids), and biological phases, and for ancillary carbon and nitrogen constituents in surface water, continued, on about a monthly schedule, at four stations through August 2009. In February, June, and August 2009, seasonal sediment samples were collected at 20 stations distributed between greater Sinclair Inlet and Operable Unit B Marine of the Bremerton naval complex, Bremerton, Washington, to examine geographical and seasonal patterns of mercury biogeochemistry of sediment in Sinclair Inlet. At six of these seasonal sediment stations, porewater was collected and triplicate core incubation experiments were done. Median sediment-methylmercury concentrations were not statistically different between the representative bays and Sinclair Inlet. The percentage of sediment methylmercury (relative to total mercury) was actually lower in the Sinclair Inlet sites compared with the representative bays, reflecting the higher sediment total mercury concentration for the Sinclair Inlet stations compared with the representative bays. Likewise, median sediment methylmercury concentrations were not statistically different between the greater Sinclair Inlet stations and the Bremerton naval complex stations; whereas the percentage of sediment methylmercury to total mercury was lower in the Bremerton naval complex due to higher sediment total mercury concentrations than the greater Sinclair Inlet stations. The biogeochemical characteristics of each station, measured by redox, organic carbon, and the seasonal availability of nutrients controlled methylmercury biogeochemistry. Mercury methylation production potential was a function of temperature, concentration of total mercury in sediment, and the percentage of ferrous iron (relative to total measured iron) across all sites. Methylmercury porewater concentrations were best described by using concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and reduction-oxidation conditions. Likewise, the variable fluxes of methylmercury from incubated cores were best described using dissolved organic carbon and reduction-oxidation conditions. Sinclair Inlet exhibited the classic Puget Sound biological cycle, with spring and autumn phytoplankton blooms resulting in depletion of nitrate, orthophosphate, and silicate in the surface water. Although variable in timing between 2008 and 2009, a strong corresponding seasonal trend of increased availability, incorporation, and bioaccumulation of methylmercury into the food web of Sinclair Inlet occurred during the early spring and summer growing season.

Washington↗

Numerical simulation of ground-water flow in La Crosse County, Wisconsin, and into nearby pools of the Mississippi River

This report describes a two-dimensional regional screening model and two associated three-dimensional ground-water flow models that were developed to simulate the ground-water flow systems in La Crosse County, Wisconsin, and Pool 8 of the Mississippi River. Although the geographic extents of the three-dimensional models were slightly different, both were derived from the same geologic interpretation and regional screening model, and their calibrations were performed concurrently. The objectives of the La Crosse County (LCC) model were to assess the effects of recent (1990s) and potential future ground-water withdrawals and to provide a tool suitable to evaluate the effects of proposed water-management programs. The Pool 8 model objectives were to quantify the magnitude and distribution of ground-water flow into the Pool. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey developed the models cooperatively. The report describes: 1) the conceptual hydrogeologic model; 2) the methods used in simulating flow; 3) model calibration and sensitivity analysis; and 4) model results, such as simulation of predevelopment conditions and location and magnitude of ground-water discharge into Pool 8 of the Mississippi. Three aquifer units underlie the model area: 1) a shallow unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifer; 2) an upper bedrock aquifer, composed of Cambrian and Ordovician sandstone and dolomite; and 3) a lower bedrock aquifer composed of Cambrian sandstone of the Eau Claire Formation and the Mount Simon Formation. A shale layer that is part of the Eau Claire Formation forms a confining unit separating the upper and lower bedrock aquifers. This confining unit is absent in the Black River and parts of the La Crosse and Mississippi River valleys. Precambrian crystalline basement rock forms the lower base of the ground-water flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey ground-water flow model code, MODFLOW, was used to develop the La Crosse County (LCC) and Pool 8 ground-water flow models. Boundary conditions for the MODFLOW model were extracted from an analytic element screening model of the regional flow system surrounding La Crosse County. Model input was obtained from previously published and unpublished geologic and hydrologic data. Pumpages from municipal and high-capacity wells were also simulated. Model calibration included a comparison of modeled and field-measured water levels and field-measured base flows to simulated stream flows. At calibration, most measured water levels compared favorably to model-calculated water levels. Simulated streamflows at two targets were within 3 percent of estimated measured base flows. Mass balance results from the LCC and Pool 8 models indicated that 63 to 74 percent of ground water was from recharge and 19 to 26 percent was from surface-water sources. Ground-water flow out of the model was to rivers and streams (85 to 87 percent) and pumping wells (11 and 13 percent). The model demonstrates the effects of development on ground water in the study area. The maximum simulated water-level decline in the city of La Crosse metropolitan area is 9.3 feet. Simulated stream losses are similar to the amount of ground water pumped by wells. This indicates that ground water withdrawn by La Crosse County wells is water that under predevelopment conditions discharged to streams and lakes. The models provide estimates of the locations and amount of ground-water flow into Pool 8 and the southern portion of Pool 7 of the Mississippi River. Ground-water discharges into all areas of the pools, except along the eastern shore in the vicinity of the city of La Crosse and immediately downgradient from lock and dam 7 and 8. Ground-water flow into the pools is generally greatest around the perimeter with decreasing amounts away from the perimeter. An area of relatively high ground-water discharge extends out towards the center of Pool 7 from the upper reaches of the pool and may

Wisconsin↗

Primary food resources in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a complex mosaic of tidal freshwater habitats, is now a focus of ecosystem rehabilitation because of changes in critical functions associated with its geographic location at the landestuary interface. One of these functions is the production, transport, and transformation of organic matter that constitutes the “primary food supply,” that is, the food supply to the base of the food web. Interest in the primary food supply is motivated by evidence for sub-optimal food quantity or quality at trophic levels that support fish recruitment, including primary consumers such as clams, mysids, cladocerans, rotifers, and native copepods. We used the historical data set to examine the magnitudes of the most important organic matter sources for the Delta, the factors underlying their interannual and longer-term variability, and the implications of ecosystem rehabilitation actions for these sources. Here, we present a summary of the first phase of the analysis, including the quantitative importance of different organic matter sources and some of the hydrological controls on their year-to-year variability. The full report of this first phaseincluding data sources, the methods of calculation, and references, is in press elsewhere (Jassby and Cloern forthcoming). The historical data analysis is part of a larger project in which measurements of stable isotopes and biogeochemical markers, and experiments on organic matter biodegradation and zooplankton growth rates, are being used collectively to define the primary food resources and their quality.

California↗

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 14: plants of conservation concern

Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks are located in the California Floristic Province, which has been named one of world‘s hotspots of endemic biodiversity (Myers et al. 2000). The California Floristic Province is the largest and most important geographic floristic unit in California and extends from the Klamath Mountains of southwestern Oregon to the northwestern portion of Baja California (Hickman 1993). The Sierra Nevada, one of six regions that make up the California Floristic Province, covers nearly 20% of the land in California yet contains over 50% of its flora. Within the Sierra Nevada, the southern Sierra supports more Sierran endemic and rare plant taxa than the central and northern portions of the region (Shevock 1996). Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) encompass roughly 20% of the southern Sierra Nevada region. The parks overlap three floristic subregions (central Sierra Nevada High, southern Sierra Nevada High, and southern Sierra Nevada Foothills), and border the Great Basin Floristic Province. The parks support a rich and diverse vascular flora composed of over 1,560 taxa. Of these, 150 taxa are identified as having special status. The term special status is applied here to include taxa that are state or federally listed, rare in California, or at risk because they have a limited distribution. Only one species from these parks is listed under the state or federal Endangered Species Acts ( Carex tompkinsii , Tompkins‘ sedge, is listed as a rare species under the California Endangered Species Act), and one species is under review for federal endangered listing ( Pinus albicaulis , whitebark pine). However, an absence of threatened and endangered species recognized by Endangered Species Acts is not equivalent to an absence of species at risk. There are 83 plant taxa documented as occurring in SEKI that are considered imperiled or vulnerable in the state by the California Department of Fish and Game‘s California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB 2010a). There are an additional 66 taxa not formally listed by CNDDB that are recognized as having special status because their distribution is restricted to the Sierra Nevada. Special status plants are distributed throughout the two parks and inhabit a wide range of environments along the length of the elevation gradient that characterizes these parks. Ideally, we would assess the condition (status and trends) of each of the taxa on the SEKI special status plant list, documenting current population sizes, demographic rates and demographic trends. We would also hope to quantify the effects of individual stressors on each species based on existing monitoring and research. However, no data are available for most of the species on the special status plant list. For those few species (12 herbaceous species and two tree species) for which we possess some change over time information, the data are not adequate to make a competent assessment. Note that we have not explored the tree demographic information in any detail, as is covered in the NRCA Intact Forest/Five Needle Pines and Sequoia chapters. In general, we are unable to present an ‗integrity‘ metric for special status species in the parks, since the data to quantify the condition of each species in such a manner is not available. In contrast, the park does possess substantial data describing biodiversity in the parks. Therefore, our analysis focuses on describing the distribution and rarity of special status plants within the parks, with a particular focus on assessing the spatial distribution of species richness. We hope that such information will prove useful to park managers in determining which areas in the parks merit the most attention (for example in developing monitoring protocols). We also assess potential vulnerability of special status species to the stressors chosen by the NRCA working group, using both park data and available literature. As a first step, we spent considerable effort updating and refining the criteria for the special status plant list, as this list defines which taxa are considered in our assessment. Observation data of these species was then compiled from all known sources in order to provide a comprehensive view of where special status plants have been documented and, ultimately, to enable the most informed determinations of areas in the parks that potentially support the highest number of rare and endemic taxa. These ‗hot spot‘ analyses are presented by geographic region, vegetation type and elevation. For these and other analyses presented in this report, we place more focus on summarizing findings for the herbaceous and shrub special status taxa than on special status trees. The trees which qualify as special status are the focus of other NRCA chapters, including Giant Sequoia and Intact Forests/Five-needle Pines. We do, however, present their mapped distributions and provide overviews of research related to the special status tree taxa in the Stressors section of this report.

California↗

Predicting the probability and volume of postwildfire debris flows in the intermountain western United States

Empirical models to estimate the probability of occurrence and volume of postwildfire debris flows can be quickly implemented in a geographic information system (GIS) to generate debris-flow hazard maps either before or immediately following wildfires. Models that can be used to calculate the probability of debris-flow production from individual drainage basins in response to a given storm were developed using logistic regression analyses of a database from 388 basins located in 15 burned areas located throughout the U.S. Intermountain West. The models describe debris-flow probability as a function of readily obtained measures of areal burned extent, soil properties, basin morphology, and rainfall from short-duration and low-recurrence-interval convective rainstorms. A model for estimating the volume of material that may issue from a basin mouth in response to a given storm was developed using multiple linear regression analysis of a database from 56 basins burned by eight fires. This model describes debris-flow volume as a function of the basin gradient, aerial burned extent, and storm rainfall. Applications of a probability model and the volume model for hazard assessments are illustrated using information from the 2003 Hot Creek fire in central Idaho. The predictive strength of the approach in this setting is evaluated using information on the response of this fire to a localized thunderstorm in August 2003. The mapping approach presented here identifies those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and thus provides information necessary to prioritize areas for postfire erosion mitigation, warnings, and prefire management efforts throughout the Intermountain West.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

Flood-inundation maps for Sweetwater Creek from above the confluence of Powder Springs Creek to the Interstate 20 bridge, Cobb and Douglas Counties, Georgia

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 10.5-mile reach of Sweetwater Creek, from about 1,800 feet above the confluence of Powder Springs Creek to about 160 feet below the Interstate 20 bridge, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Cobb County, Georgia. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Georgia (02337000). Current stage at this USGS streamgage may be obtained at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ and can be used in conjunction with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The National Weather Service (NWS) is incorporating results from this study into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that commonly are collocated at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Sweetwater Creek near Austell (02337000), which is available through the AHPS Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) software for Sweetwater Creek and was used to compute flood profiles for a 10.5-mile reach of the creek. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Sweetwater Creek near Austell streamgage (02337000), as well as high-water marks collected during annual peak-flow events in 1982 and 2009. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 21 water-surface profiles for flood stages at the Sweetwater Creek streamgage at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from just above bankfull stage (12.0 feet) to approximately 1.2 feet above the highest recorded water level at the streamgage (32.0 feet). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model—derived from contour data (8-foot horizontal resolution), in Cobb County, and USGS National Elevation Dataset (31-foot horizontal resolution), in Douglas County—to delineate the area flooded for each 1-foot increment of stream stage. The availability of these maps, when combined with real-time information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with critical information during flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Georgia↗

Web-based decision support and visualization tools for water quality management in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Federal, State, and local water quality managers charged with restoring the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem require tools to maximize the impact of their limited resources. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) are developing a suite of Web-based tools called the Chesapeake Online Assessment Support Toolkit (COAST). The goal of COAST is to help CBP partners identify geographic areas where restoration activities would have the greatest effect, select the appropriate management strategies, and improve coordination and prioritization among partners. As part of the COAST suite of tools focused on environmental restoration, a water quality management visualization component called the Nutrient Yields Mapper (NYM) tool is being developed by USGS. The NYM tool is a web application that uses watershed yield estimates from USGS SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) attributes model (Schwarz et al., 2006) [6] to allow water quality managers to identify important sources of nitrogen and phosphorous within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The NYM tool utilizes new open source technologies that have become popular in geospatial web development, including components such as OpenLayers and GeoServer. This paper presents examples of water quality data analysis based on nutrient type, source, yield, and area of interest using the NYM tool for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. In addition, we describe examples of map-based techniques for identifying high and low nutrient yield areas; web map engines; and data visualization and data management techniques.

Conference Paper↗

Distribution and abundance patterns of the palila on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

Censuses of the known geographical range of the rare and endangered Palila were conducted in January (nonbreeding season) and September (breeding season) 1975. The habitat (mamane and naio forest of Mauna Kea, Hawaii) was divided into five major areas, with each analyzed for vegetational composition, phenology of the predominant tree species, and Palila density. Using a line transect census technique, we determined that: 1) the Palila occupied 5,560 ha, approximately 10% of its former range; 2) Palila populations were more restricted in the nonbreeding season, possibly reflecting their flocking tendency; 3) Palila densities were 38 birds per km2 in the breeding season and 36 birds per km2 in the nonbreeding season; 4) Palila population movements were small, and apparently were correlated with patterns of food availability; and 5) all methods of analysis yielded a projected population of approximately 1,600 birds. These low numbers, coupled with its restricted range, make the Palila one of the most vulnerable endangered species.

The Auk↗