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Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Weights and hematology of wild black bears during hibernation

We compared weights and hematological profiles of adult (>3-yr-old) female black bears ( Ursus americanus ) during hibernation (after 8 January). We handled 28 bears one to four times (total of 47) over 4 yr of varying mast and berry production. Mean weight of lactating bears was greater ( P < 0.0001) than that of non-lactating females. White blood cells ( P < 0.05) and mean corpuscular volume ( P = 0.005) also differed between lactating and non-lactating bears. Hemoglobin ( P = 0.006) and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration ( P = 0.02) varied among years; values were lowest during 1975, following decreased precipitation and the occurrence of a second year of mast and berry crop shortages in a three-year period. Significant ( P < 0.05) interaction between reproductive status (lactating versus non-lactating) and study year for hemoglobin, red blood cells, and packed cell volume, and increased mean corpuscular volume, suggested a greater nutritional challenge for lactating females compared to non-lactating females during the 1975 denning season. Our data suggest that hematological characteristics of denning bears may be more sensitive than weights as indicators of annual changes in nutritional status; however, other influential factors, in addition to mast and berry crop production, remain to be examined.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

Reconnaissance survey for potential energy storage and carbon dioxide storage resources of petroleum reservoirs in western Europe

Energy producers and utilities use oil and gas reservoirs for gas storage to meet peak seasonal demand or to supplement intermittent energy production. These reservoirs are also suitable for the long-term storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), a greenhouse gas. This study reports on a reconnaissance analysis of the potential magnitude of storage resources in 9424 known oil and gas reservoirs from 24 countries within highly industrialized western Europe. To standardize the storage resources of the oil and gas reservoirs, their volumetric capacity is expressed in terms of metric tons (mass) of CO 2 . Estimates of recoverable oil and gas at the surface are converted to subsurface volumes and then converted to the equivalent mass of CO 2 at reservoir conditions. The results indicate 36.7 gigatons of CO 2 could be stored, with oil reservoirs accounting for 32% of that total and natural gas reservoirs comprising the remaining 68%. About four-fifths of the reservoir storage resource is offshore, with about three-fourths of that offshore resource at water depths of 200 m or less. Most countries do not have the reservoir storage resources to store 15 years of CO 2 at 2017 emission levels. With few exceptions the bulk of the storage is offshore for countries that do have at least 15 years of storage. The expansion of natural gas storage for strategic purposes in abandoned onshore gas reservoirs is not expected to seriously impact CO 2 storage. The contribution of this analysis is the description of the spatial distribution of potential storage and physical accessibility.

Natural Resources Research↗

Thermal habitat use of lake trout in Lake Erie

Understanding the thermal habitat use of fish populations is vital for effective rehabilitation or management, particularly in the face of climate change, given limited thermal tolerances of some species. In Lake Erie, lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) rehabilitation efforts by means of stocking have been ongoing for four decades. However, high water temperatures and lengthening periods of stratification may be hindering reestablishment efforts by contributing to unfavorable conditions for spawning and natural recruitment. We used acoustic telemetry to quantify weekly temperature occupancy of adult lake trout in Lake Erie and evaluated whether temperature occupancy differed relative to fish total length and sex. We found that lake trout occupied water temperatures similar to temperatures occupied by other Great Lakes lake trout populations during summer stratification. During fall, lake trout in Lake Erie occupied warmer temperatures than Lake Huron populations but similar temperatures to Lake Ontario populations. Occupied temperatures decreased with increasing body size during a 7-week period of mid- to late-summer stratification, but not during early summer or fall. Male and female lake trout did not differ in weekly temperature occupancy during any season. These findings reveal similarities with successfully reproducing populations, which suggest that adult temperature occupancy is unlikely to be a major impediment to natural recruitment in Lake Erie.

Lake Erie↗

Energy sources for triton's geyser-like plumes

Four geyser-like plumes were discovered near Triton's south pole in areas now in permanent sunlight. Because Triton's southern hemisphere is nearing a maximum summer solstice, insolation as a driver or a trigger for Triton's geyser-like plumes is an attractive hypothesis. Trapping of solar radiation in a translucent, low-conductivity surface layer (in a solid-state greenhouse), which is subsequently released in the form of latent heat of sublimation, could provide the required energy. Both the classical solid-state greenhouse consisting of exponentially absorbed insolation in a gray, translucent layer of solid nitrogen, and the "super" greenhouse consisting of a relatively transparent solid-nitrogen layer over an opaque, absorbing layer are plausible candidates. Geothermal heat may also play a part if assisted by the added energy input of seasonal cycles of insolation.

Science↗

Water temperature, streamflow, and ground-water elevation in and adjacent to the Russian river between Hopland and Guerneville, California from 1998-2002

Temperature, water level elevation, stage height, and river discharge data for this report were collected in and adjacent to the Russian River from Hopland to Guerneville, CA over a four-year period from 1998 to 2002 to establish baselines for long-term water quality, water supply and habitat. Data files presented in this report were collected by the USGS and the Sonoma County Water Agency's Engineering Resource and Planning, and Natural Resource Divisions. Temperature data were collected in single-channel submersible microloggers or temperature data were collected simultaneously with water-elevation data in dual-channel down-hole data loggers. Stream stage and streamflow data were collected at USGS stream gaging stations located near Hopland, Healdsburg, and Guerneville over a 130 km reach of the Russian River. During the period of record stream flow ranged from 3 to 1458 m3/s. Stream temperature ranged from 8 to 29 oC while groundwater temperature ranged from 10 to 38 oC. Stream stage varied 5 m seasonly, while ground-water level varied 19 m over the same time scale.

California↗

Ground-Water System in the Chimacum Creek Basin and Surface Water/Ground Water Interaction in Chimacum and Tarboo Creeks and the Big and Little Quilcene Rivers, Eastern Jefferson County, Washington

A detailed study of the ground-water system in the unconsolidated glacial deposits in the Chimacum Creek Basin and the interactions between surface water and ground water in four main drainage basins was conducted in eastern Jefferson County, Washington. The study will assist local watershed planners in assessing the status of the water resources and the potential effects of ground-water development on surface-water systems. A new surficial geologic map of the Chimacum Creek Basin and a series of hydrogeologic sections were developed by incorporating LIDAR imagery, existing map sources, and drillers' logs from 110 inventoried wells. The hydrogeologic framework outlined in the study will help characterize the occurrence of ground water in the unconsolidated glacial deposits and how it interacts with the surface-water system. Water levels measured throughout the study show that the altitude of the water table parallels the surface topography and ranges from 0 to 400 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 across the basin, and seasonal variations in precipitation due to natural cycles generally are on the order of 2 to 3 feet. Synoptic stream-discharge measurements and instream mini-piezometers and piezometers with nested temperature sensors provided additional data to refine the positions of gaining and losing reaches and delineate seasonal variations. Chimacum Creek generally gains water from the shallow ground-water system, except near the community of Chimacum where localized losses occur. In the lower portions of Chimacum Creek, gaining conditions dominate in the summer when creek stages are low and ground-water levels are high, and losing conditions dominate in the winter when creek stages are high relative to ground-water levels. In the Quilcene Bay area, three drainage basins were studied specifically to assess surface water/ground water interactions. The upper reaches of Tarboo Creek generally gain water from the shallow ground-water system throughout most of the year and the lower reaches have little or no gains. The Big Quilcene River generally gains water from the shallow ground-water system after it emerges from a bedrock canyon and loses water from the town of Quilcene to the mouth of the river in Quilcene Bay. The Little Quilcene River generally loses water to the shallow ground-water system, although two localized areas were found to have gaining conditions. The Big Quilcene and Little Quilcene Rivers incur significant losses on the alluvial plain at the head of Quilcene Bay. Each of the creeks examined had a unique pattern of gaining and losing reaches, owing to the hydraulic conductivity of the streambed material and the relative altitude of the surrounding water table. Although the magnitudes of gains and losses varied seasonally, the spatial distribution did not vary greatly, suggesting that patterns of gains and losses in surface-water systems depend greatly on the geology underlying the streambed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Modeling Escherichia coli in the Missouri River near Omaha, Nebraska, 2012–16

The city of Omaha, Nebraska, has a combined sewer system in some areas of the city. In Omaha, Nebr., a moderate amount of rainfall will lead to the combination of stormwater and untreated sewage or wastewater being discharged directly into the Missouri River and Papillion Creek and is called a combined sewer overflow (CSO) event. In 2009, the city of Omaha began the implementation of their Long Term Control Plan (LTCP) to mitigate the effects of CSOs on the Missouri River and Papillion Creek. As part of the LTCP, the city partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2012 to begin monitoring in the Missouri River. Since 2012, monthly discrete water-quality samples for many constituents have been collected from the Missouri River at four sites. At 3 of the 4 sites, water quality has been monitored continuously for selected constituents and physical properties. These discrete water-quality samples and continuous water-quality monitoring data (from July 2012 to 2020) have been collected to better understand the water quality of the Missouri River, how it is changing with time, how it changes upstream from the city of Omaha to downstream, and how it varies during base-flow conditions and during periods of runoff. The purpose of this report is to document the development of Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) concentration models for these four Missouri River sites. Analysis was completed using the first 5 years of data (through 2016) to determine if the current approach is sufficient to meet future analysis goals and to understand if proposed models such as Load Estimator (LOADEST) models will be able to represent water-quality changes in the Missouri River. Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate E. coli concentration using LOADEST as implemented in the rloadest package in the R statistical software program. A set of explanatory variables, including streamflow and streamflow anomalies, precipitation, information about CSOs, and continuous water quality, were evaluated for potential inclusion in regression models. The best model at Missouri River at NP Dodge Park at Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 412126095565201; hereafter “NP Dodge”) included basin explanatory variables of upstream antecedent precipitation index measured at Tekamah, Nebr.; decimal time; season; and turbidity. The best model at Missouri River at Freedom Park Omaha, Nebr. (USGS station 411636095535401; hereafter “Freedom Park”) included the same explanatory variables as the NP Dodge model with the addition of turbidity anomalies and flow anomalies. The best models at the two downstream sites (Missouri River near Council Bluffs, Iowa, USGS station 06610505 and Missouri River near La Platte, Nebr., USGS station 410333095530101) included the same explanatory variables as the Freedom Park model with the addition of local antecedent precipitation index as measured at Eppley Airport in Omaha, Nebr., and additional turbidity and flow anomalies. The final selected models were the best models given our modeling design constraint in which explanatory variables included in the model for the upstream site were included in the downstream models. Explanatory variables currently (2020) being collected and included in the selected models through 2016 explained 64–75 percent of the variability of E. coli concentration in the Missouri River. Explaining 64–75 percent of the variability might be considered low when working with physical constituents (total nitrogen or sediment), but with the natural variability of biological constituents such as E. coli , the uncertainty of E. coli laboratory measurements, and the added complexity of modeling in a large drainage basin with multiple sources, these results are adequate and indicate that the explanatory variables being collected and models such as LOADEST can represent water-quality changes in the Missouri River for E. coli concentration from 2012 to 2016.

Nebraska↗

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.

Oecologia↗

Investigating surface water-well interaction using stable isotope ratios of water

Because surface water can be a source of undesirable water quality in a drinking water well , an understanding of the amount of surface water and its travel time to the well is needed to assess a well's vulnerability. Stable isotope ratios of oxygen in river water at the City of La Crosse, Wisconsin, show peak-to-peak seasonal variation greater than 4‰ in 2001 and 2002. This seasonal signal was identified in 7 of 13 city municipal wells, indicating that these 7 wells have appreciable surface water contributions and are potentially vulnerable to contaminants in the surface water. When looking at wells with more than 6 sampling events, a larger variation in δ 18 O compositions correlated with a larger fraction of surface water, suggesting that samples collected for oxygen isotopic composition over time may be useful for identifying the vulnerability to surface water influence even if a local meteoric water line is not available. A time series of δ 18 O from one of the municipal wells and from a piezometerlocated between the river and the municipal well showed that the travel time of flood water to the municipal well was approximately 2 months; non-flood arrival times were on the order of 9 months. Four independent methods were also used to assess time of travel. Three methods (groundwater temperature arrival times at the intermediate piezometer, virus-culture results, and particle tracking using a numerical groundwater-flow model) yielded flood and non-flood travel times of less than 1 year for this site. Age dating of one groundwater sample using 3 H– 3 He methods estimated an age longer than 1 year, but was likely confounded by deviations from piston flow as noted by others. Chlorofluorocarbons and SF 6 analyses were not useful at this site due to degradation and contamination, respectively. This work illustrates the utility of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of water to determine the contribution and travel time of surface water in groundwater, and demonstrates the importance of using multiple methods to improve estimates for time of travel of 1 year or less.

Journal of Hydrology↗

U.S. Caribbean

Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase. The high percentage of coastal area relative to the total island land area in the U.S. Caribbean means that a large proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable to sea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall events and associated coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion. High levels of exposure and sensitivity to risk in the U.S. Caribbean region are compounded by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation measures relative to the region’s gross domestic product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas. The limited geographic and economic scale of Caribbean islands means that disruptions from extreme climate-related events, such as droughts and hurricanes, can devastate large portions of local economies and cause widespread damage to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, and other critical resources and services. The U.S. Caribbean territories of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) have distinct differences in topography, language, population size, governance, natural and human resources, and economic capacity. However, both are highly dependent on natural and built coastal assets; service-related industries account for more than 60% of the USVI economy. Beaches, affected by sea level rise and erosion, are among the main tourist attractions. In Puerto Rico, critical infrastructure (for example, drinking water pipelines and pump stations, sanitary pipelines and pump stations, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants) is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, storm surge , and flooding. In the USVI, infrastructure and historical buildings in the inundation zone for sea level rise include the power plants on both St. Thomas and St. Croix; schools; housing communities; the towns of Charlotte Amalie, Christiansted, and Frederiksted; and pipelines for water and sewage. Climate change will likely result in water shortages due to an overall decrease in annual rainfall, a reduction in ecosystem services, and increased risks for agriculture, human health, wildlife, and socioeconomic development in the U.S. Caribbean. These shortages would result from some locations within the Caribbean experiencing longer dry seasons and shorter, but wetter, wet seasons in the future. Extended dry seasons are projected to increase fire likelihood. Excessive rainfall, coupled with poor construction practices, unpaved roads, and steep slopes, can exacerbate erosion rates and have adverse effects on reservoir capacity, water quality, and nearshore marine habitats. Ocean warming poses a significant threat to the survival of corals and will likely also cause shifts in associated habitats that compose the coral reef ecosystem . Severe, repeated, or prolonged periods of high temperatures leading to extended coral bleaching can result in colony death. Ocean acidification also is likely to diminish the structural integrity of coral habitats. Studies show that major shifts in fisheries distribution and changes to the structure and composition of marine habitats adversely affect food security, shoreline protection, and economies throughout the Caribbean. In Puerto Rico, the annual number of days with temperatures above 90°F has increased over the last four and a half decades. During that period, stroke and cardiovascular disease, which are influenced by such elevated temperatures, became the primary causes of death. Increases in average temperature and in extreme heat events will likely have detrimental effects on agricultural operations throughout the U.S. Caribbean region. Many farmers in the tropics, including the U.S. Caribbean, are considered small-holding, limited resource farmers and often lack the resources and/or capital to adapt to changing conditions. Most Caribbean countries and territories share the need to assess risks, enable actions across scales, and assess changes in ecosystems to inform decision-making on habitat protection under a changing climate. U.S. Caribbean islands have the potential to improve adaptation and mitigation actions by fostering stronger collaborations with Caribbean initiatives on climate change and disaster risk reduction.

Report↗

Pop-up archival transmitting (PAT) tags: A method to investigate the migration and behavior of Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis ) in the Gulf of Alaska

Pop-up archival transmitting (PAT) tags provide a fisheries-independent method of collecting environmental preference data (depth and ambient water temperature) and migration distance. In this study, we evaluate the use of pop-up archival transmitting tags as a method to investigate demersal fish. We report the results from eight pop-up archival transmitting tagged Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis (from 107 to 165 cm FL) that were released in and around Resurrection Bay, Alaska. Commercial fishermen recovered three tags, while five tags transmitted data to Argos satellites. Horizontal migration was not consistent among fish as four Pacific halibut remained in the vicinity of release while the other four traveled up to 358 km from the release site. Vertical movement was not consistent among fish or over time; however, they spent most of their time at depths of 150 to 350 m. The minimum and maximum depths reached by any of the Pacific halibut were 2 m and 502 m, respectively. The fish preferred water temperatures of approximately 6°C, but experienced temperatures between 4.3 and 12.2°C. Light attenuation with depth prevented geolocation software and light sensing hardware from accurately estimating geoposition for the majority of days. The methods, adapted from investigations on large pelagic fish, proved to be effective for studying Pacific halibut in the northern Gulf of Alaska. PAT tags allowed us to obtain high accuracy locations of the fish at the end of the tag deployments as well as preliminary data to identify approximate seasonal locations and to characterize their depth and temperature characteristics. By using PAT tags, we will be able to ensure tag returns during the winter season (which is closed to fishing) and gain valuable biological information even if fish migrate large distances or to unexpected locations.

Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin↗

Developmental differences in the responsiveness of gill Na+, K+ and -ATPase to cortisol salmonids

The ability of cortisol to increase gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity was examined in several salmonid species during development. Coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) parr were unresponsive to cortisol in vitro (10 μg/ml for 2 days) in November. Responsiveness was significant from January to March, peaking in January just prior to seasonal increases in gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity. Gill tissue became unresponsive to in vitro cortisol in April when in vivo gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity peaked. The ability of cortisol to stimulate gill, Na + , K + -ATPase activity in postemergent fry (2–3 months after hatching) was examined in chum ( O. keta ), chinook ( O. tschawytscha ), coho, and Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ). Initial levels of gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity were elevated in chum salmon, which normally migrate as fry. Cortisol (10 μg/ml for 4 days in vitro ) increased gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity in chum salmon fry (48% above initial levels), had a limited but significant effect in chinook salmon fry, and had no effect in coho and Atlantic salmon fry. In an in vivo experiment, Atlantic salmon previously exposed to simulated natural photoperiod (SNP) and continuous light (L24) received four cortisol injections of 2 μg · g −1 every third day. SNP fish responded with increased gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity (+66%), whereas L24 fish were not affected. Atlantic salmon presmolts with initially low levels of gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity responded to cortisol in vitro , whereas smolts with initially high levels of gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity were unresponsive. Triiodothyronine (0.01–10 μg/ml), prolactin (0.1–10 μg/ml), growth hormone (0.1–10 μg/ml), insulin (0.01–10 μg/ml), and bovine insulin-like growth factor I (0.01–1 μg/ml) did not affect gill Na + , K + -ATPase activity in vitro , individually or with cortisol (1–10 μg/ml). Thus, changes in responsiveness to cortisol occur during salmonid development, vary among species, and may be important in the heterochrony that characterizes the parr-smolt transformation.

General and Comparative Endocrinology↗

Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

Sonoran Desert↗

Water-quality conditions of the lower Boise River, Ada and Canyon Counties, Idaho, May 1994 through February 1997

Agricultural land and water use, wastewater treatment facility discharges, land development, road construction, urban runoff, confined-animal feeding operations, reservoir operations, and river channelization affect the water quality and biotic integrity of the lower Boise River between Lucky Peak Dam and the river's mouth at Parma, Idaho. During May 1994 through February 1997, 4 sites on the Boise River, 12 tributary/drain sites, and 3 wastewater treatment facilities were sampled at various intervals during the irrigation (high-flow) and post-irrigation (low-flow) seasons to determine sources, concentrations, and relative loads of nutrients and suspended sediment. Discharge entering the Boise River from the 12 tributary/drain sites and 3 wastewater treatment facilities was measured to determine the nutrient loads being contributed from each source. Total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment concentrations and loads tended to increase in a downstream direction along the Boise River. Among the 15 sources of discharge to the Boise River, 3 southside tributary/drains and the West Boise wastewater treatment facility contributed the largest loads of total nitrogen; the median daily load was more than 2,000 pounds per day. The West Boise wastewater treatment facility contributed the largest median daily load of total phosphorus (810 pounds per day); Dixie Drain contributed the largest median daily load of suspended sediment (26.4 tons per day). Nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios at the four Boise River sites indicated that phosphorus could be limiting algal growth at the Diversion Dam site, whereas nitrogen could be limiting algal growth at the Glenwood and Middleton sites during some parts of the year. Algal growth in the Boise River near Parma did not appear to be nutrient limited. Because of the complexity of the plumbing system in the lower Boise River (numerous diversions and inflow points), accurate comparisons between discharge and nutrient loads entering the river at measured sites during high-flow sampling periods were difficult. During low-flow sampling periods, southside tributary/drains contributed most of the discharge and total nitrogen load, and wastewater treatment facilities contributed most of the total phosphorus load to the Boise River. During the 50-day period July 18 through September 5, 1996, the Idaho State standard for maximum daily average temperature for coldwater biota was exceeded by 34 percent at Middleton, 48 percent at Caldwell, and 80 percent near Parma. Violations of State standards for primary and secondary contact recreation were observed at all tributary/ drains and in the Boise River near Parma. Median instantaneous concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria exceeded State standards for primary contact recreation at five tributary/drains and exceeded standards for secondary contact recreation at one tributary/drain (Dixie Drain).

Idaho↗

Abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) off central California during the 2018 breeding season

Executive Summary Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “endangered” by the State of California and “threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management, evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately, to meet Federal- and State-mandated recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1999–2018), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (San Francisco Bay to Point Sur in central California). Using conventional distance sampling methods, we estimated marbled murrelet abundance using 137 detections of 227 individuals observed on 9 surveys. The abundance estimated for the entire study area using all surveys in 2018 was 370 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 250–546 birds). Estimated abundance from 2018 is comparable to most prior years of study, except for 2001–03, when greater abundances were estimated. In 2018, we estimated reproductive productivity (calculated as the hatch-year [HY] to after-hatch-year [AHY] ratio) using four detections of four HY individuals observed on six surveys. After date-correcting HY and AHY counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests, the date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.047 ± 0.024 standard error. We updated a synthesized database of all Zone 6 marbled murrelet survey data since 1999 with 2018 data to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates.

California↗

Coastal breeding bird phenology on the dredged-material islands of the Baptiste Collette Bayou, US Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District, Louisiana

Coastal bird populations in North America have experienced significant population declines over the past four decades, and many species have become dependent upon human-made islands and other sediment-based habitats created through dredged material deposition. We monitored the breeding phenology of coastal bird populations utilizing dredged-material islands and open depositional areas in the Baptiste Collette Bayou in coastal Louisiana. Monitoring began in early May, prior to when most coastal species begin nesting, and continued through late August, when most breeding activity has ceased. Semimonthly surveys included area searches by foot and boat. Two deposition areas and one island supported large numbers of foraging, roosting, or breeding birds; surveys on these areas included using spotting scopes to identify species and count nests or young. Six islands and two open deposition areas were monitored. We also collected high-definition and lidar imagery using an uncrewed aerial system (UAS) in June, during peak nesting season. We recorded 77,474 cumulative detections of 68 species. Virtually all colonial nesting birds (terns and skimmers) nested on Gunn Island in 2021. We discuss these results in the context of dredged-material deposition by the US Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District, and offer recommendations for management of these areas.

Louisiana↗

Geohydrology, water quality, and nitrogen geochemistry in the saturated and unsaturated zones beneath various land uses, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, California, 1991-93

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Eastern Municipal Water District, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, and the Orange County Water District, has completed a detailed study of the Hemet groundwater basin. The quantity of ground water stored in the basin in August 1992 is estimated to be 327,000 acre-feet. Dissolved-solids concentration ranged from 380 to 700 mg/L (milligrams per liter), except in small areas where the concentration exceeded 1,000 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 mg/L nitrate (as nitrogen) in the southeastern part of the basin, in the Domenigoni Valley area, and beneath a dairy in the Diamond Valley area. Seven sites representing selected land uses-- residential, turf grass irrigated with reclaimed water, citrus grove, irrigated farm, poultry farm, and dairy (two sites)--were selected for detailed study of nitrogen geochemistry in the unsaturated zone. For all land uses, nitrate was the dominant nitrogen species in the unsaturated zone. Although nitrate was seasonally present in the shallow unsaturated zone beneath the residential site, it was absent at moderate depths, suggesting negligible migration of nitrate from the surface at this time. Microbial denitrification probably is occurring in the shallow unsaturated zone. High nitrate concentrations in the deep unsaturated zone (greater than 100 ft) suggest either significantly higher nitrate loading at some time in the past, or lateral movement of nitrate at depth. Nitrate also is seasonally present in the shallow unsaturated zone beneath the reclaimed-water site, and (in contrast with the residential site), nitrate is perennially present in the deeper unsaturated zone. Microbial denitrification in the unsaturated zone and in the capillary fringe above the water table decreases the concentrations of nitrate in pore water to below the MCL before reaching the water table. Pore water in the unsaturated zone beneath the citrus grove site contains very high concentrations of nitrate. Even though there are zones of microbial denitrification, nitrate seems to be migrating downward to the water table. The presence of a shallow perched-water zone beneath the irrigated-farm site prevents the vertical movement of nitrate from the surface to the regional water table. Above the perched zone, nitrate concentrations in the unsaturated zone are variable, ranging from below the MCL to four times the MCL. Periodically, nitrate is flushed from the shallow unsaturated zone to the perched-water zone. The unsaturated zone pore-moisture quality could not be adequately addressed because of the very dry conditions in the unsaturated zone beneath the poultry-farm site. Surficial clay deposits prevent water from percolating downward. At the two dairy sites, nitrate loading in pore water at the surface was very high, as great as 7,000 mg/L. Microbial denitrification in the unsaturated zone causes such concentrations to decrease rapidly with depth. At a depth of 20 ft, nitrate concentration was less than 100 mg/L. In areas where the depth to water is less than 20 ft, nitrate loading to ground water can be very high, whereas in areas where depth to water is greater than 100 ft, most of the nitrate is microbially removed before reaching the water table.

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