Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Environmental Conservation”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources

Cryptic declines of small, cold-water specialists highlight potential vulnerabilities of headwater streams as climate refugia

Increasing temperatures and climate-driven disturbances like wildfire are a growing threat to many species, including cold-water specialists. Montane areas and cold streams are often considered climate refugia that buffer communities against change. However, climate refugia are often species-specific, and despite growing awareness that life histories and habitat requirements shape responses to change, small or non-game species are often under-represented in monitoring and planning programs. A recent study in Montana, USA, revealed much larger warming-related declines in occupancy for small, non-game slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ) between 1993 and 1995 and 2011–2013 than for two socially valued salmonid fishes that shape regional conservation efforts. To broaden insight into climate change vulnerabilities of headwater stream communities, we analyzed data for Rocky Mountain tailed frogs ( Ascaphus montanus ) that were collected during those same electrofishing surveys for fishes from 241 stream reaches. Tailed frogs occupy small, cold streams and have several life-history traits that make them sensitive to environmental change. We used a Bayesian framework to estimate occupancy, colonization, and extinction dynamics relative to forest canopy, estimated stream temperature, and wildfire effects. Tailed frog occupancy decreased by 19 % from 1993 to 1995 to 2011–2013. Changes in occupancy were linked with increased extinction and reduced colonization where there were fire-driven reductions in canopy cover, and reduced colonization of stream reaches that warmed on average 0.8 °C during the study. Our results highlight extensive extirpations for oft-overlooked species and emphasize the importance of including species with diverse habitat requirements and life histories in conservation planning.

Idaho, Montana↗

Sex differences in migration routes and non-breeding areas of a declining shorebird

Migratory birds face different threats and pressures across their annual cycle, and understanding the impact of these factors on individuals is critical to the conservation of avian populations. Individuals from the same breeding population may share the same non-breeding areas, and thus experience similar conditions, or they may travel to different habitats or regions during migration and the stationary non-breeding period. Marbled Godwits ( Limosa fedoa ) breeding in the Northern Great Plains, which have experienced steep population declines, are thought to spend the non-breeding period primarily on the Pacific Coast of the United States and Mexico. However, little is known about migratory routes, stopover sites, and non-breeding locations of specific breeding populations, nor whether individuals from the same breeding population remain together throughout the year. We deployed satellite transmitters on four mated pairs of godwits breeding in southern Alberta, Canada, with individuals tracked over a mean of 2.2 annual cycles (range 0.6–5.6, excluding one unit that stopped transmitting immediately following deployment). Counter to our expectations, females and males separated completely following breeding, with females traveling to non-breeding areas along the coast of California, United States, and males stopping over at Great Salt Lake, Utah, United States, and spending the non-breeding period in Baja California Sur, Mexico, a distance of ~1300 km from their mates. Despite spending nine months apart, individuals from this breeding population have previously been shown to have high mate fidelity. Interestingly, individuals mostly used protected areas during the non-breeding period, in contrast to the human-modified agricultural landscapes that make up the majority of their breeding grounds. Despite a small sample size, our results suggest a strong pattern of differential migration based on sex, with implications for the specific environmental conditions, and potentially threats, faced by female and male godwits across the annual cycle.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

Estimating the effect of winter cover crops on nitrogen leaching using cost-share enrollment data, satellite remote sensing, and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling

This study employed a novel combination of data (winter cover crop cost-share enrollment records, satellite remote sensing of wintertime vegetation, and results of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) water quality simulations) to estimate the environmental performance of winter cover crops (WCC) at the watershed scale, from 2008 through 2017, within the Tuckahoe sub-watershed of the Choptank River. The Choptank is a river basin within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and, as a focus watershed for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), has been the subject of considerable study assessing linkages between land use and water quality. Farm enrollment data from the Maryland Agricultural Cost Share (MACS) program documented a strong increase in the use of WCC within the Tuckahoe watershed during the study period, from 27% of corn fields and 9% of soybean fields in 2008 to 89% of corn fields and 46% of soybean fields in 2016. Satellite remote sensing of wintertime ground cover detected increased wintertime vegetation following corn crops, in comparison to full season and double cropped soybean, consistent with patterns of cover crop implementation. Although inter-annual variation in climate strongly affected observed levels of vegetation, with warm winters resulting in increased vegetative cover, a 30-year analysis of wintertime greenness revealed significant increases in wintertime vegetation associated increased adoption of WCC. The predominant WCC species recorded by the MACS program as planted in the Tuckahoe watershed were wheat (68.1%), barley (16.1%), and rye (7.2%). The MACS WCC enrollment data were combined with output from the SWAT model, calibrated to streamflow and nutrient loading from the Tuckahoe watershed, to estimate water quality impacts based on known distribution of cover crop species and planting dates (2008 to 2017). Results indicated a 25% overall 10-year reduction in nitrate leaching from cropland resulting from cover crop adoption, rising to an estimated 38% load reduction in 2016 when 64% of fields were planted to cover crops. A large portion of WCC (39.3%) were planted late (after October 15) and planted to wheat (68.1%). Increased environmental benefits would be achieved by shifting agronomic methods away from late-planted wheat.

Delaware, Maryland↗

Techniques for restoring damaged Mojave and western Sonoran ecosystems, including those for threatened desert tortoises and Joshua trees

Ecological restoration has potential for contributing to conservation activities for threatened Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) and Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia , Y. jaegeriana ) and their broader ecosystems in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts. To be effective, restoration actions deployed strategically need to halt and reverse habitat degradation, replenish or enhance resources used by both species (e.g., large shrubs for protection of tortoises and nurse plants facilitating recruitment of Joshua tree seedlings), and ideally foster resilience during likely future environmental changes. We synthesized restoration techniques and their effectiveness in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts, provide estimated costs of candidate techniques, and anticipate future research needs for effective restoration in changing climates and environments. Over 50 published studies in the Mojave and western Sonoran deserts demonstrate that restoration can improve soil features (e.g., biocrusts), increase cover of native perennial and annual plants, enhance native seed retention and seed banks, and reduce risk of fires to conserve mature shrubland habitat. We placed restoration techniques into three categories: restoration of site environments, revegetation, and management actions to limit further disturbance and encourage recovery. Within these categories, 11 major restoration techniques (and their variations) were evaluated by at least one published study and range from geomorphic (e.g., reestablishing natural topographic patterns) and abiotic structural treatments (e.g., vertical mulching) to active revegetation (e.g., outplanting, seeding). For example, 16 outplanting studies assessed performance of 46 species to begin identifying top-performing species, associated treatments (e.g., protection from herbivory) required to aid outplant survival, and potential for outplants to trigger formation of self-sustaining populations. Creosote bush (Larrea tridentata), a shrub that tortoises use for cover and that serves as a nurse plant for Joshua tree recruitment, achieved at least 50% survival in five of eight studies. Estimated costs for restoring desert habitats varied primarily with the severity of the disturbance, site factors including the diversity of vegetation that was lost, logistical factors such as accessibility of sites (influencing transportation costs), and the cost-effectiveness of the restoration techniques chosen. The review highlights six major research and adaptive management needs for advancing desert habitat restoration. These needs include: 1) continued development of innovative techniques and bet-hedging approaches to provide managers with “tool boxes” of candidate treatments to deploy in dynamic environmental and management conditions, 2) identifying how to optimize spatial deployment of limited restoration resources, 3) developing practical techniques for reducing non-native annual grasses across spatial scales, 4) improving linkages between habitat enhancements and short- and long-term indicators of tortoise usage and responses and Joshua tree population sustainability, 5) mitigating multiple, interacting stressors with cumulative impacts, and 6) integrating biotic (e.g., seeding) and abiotic (e.g., fencing, shade structures) treatments to complement each other at site and landscape scales in dynamic climates and environments. It is possible that bet-hedging approaches employing multiple treatment types (or phased treatments across years) and greater incorporation of abiotic treatments, which are less sensitive to timing of precipitation compared with biotic treatments, will become increasingly important under future climates projected to be drier and more variable. Existing research suggests that restoration can be deployed effectively even under adverse climatic conditions, but success requires identifying suitable techniques tailored to dynamic environments.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Sonora↗

Natural history, field ecology, conservation biology and wildlife management: Time to connect the dots

Natural history and field ecology are essential building blocks for successful conservation and management of herpetofauna. Thus, natural history and field ecology merit major infusions of funding and increased recognition of their importance in science and management. Others have stated matters well: (1) Academic training in natural history should receive high priority; (2) we need to integrate our work across disciplines (from molecules to communities), and use all of our knowledge toward common goals; (3) natural history is not dead but today is a flourishing enterprise; and (4) mutual respect and collaboration between disciplines best serve our own mental health as well as the future of natural history. We need to merge the best natural history, field ecological data, and biological questions with the latest advances in other fields of inquiry if we are to advance science and solve key environmental issues. It takes a scientific community and many concerned parties to save a species, let alone an ecosystem. We must connect these dots to see the big picture.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology↗

Fluvial rainbow trout contribute to the colonization of steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in a small stream

Life history polymorphisms provide ecological and genetic diversity important to the long term persistence of species responding to stochastic environments. Oncorhynchus mykiss have complex and overlapping life history strategies that are also sympatric with hatchery populations. Passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and parentage analysis were used to identify the life history, origin (hatchery or wild) and reproductive success of migratory rainbow/steelhead for two brood years after barriers were removed from a small stream. The fluvial rainbow trout provided a source of wild genotypes to the colonizing population boosting the number of successful spawners. Significantly more parr offspring were produced by anadromous parents than expected in brood year 2005, whereas significantly more parr offspring were produced by fluvial parents than expected in brood year 2006. Although hatchery steelhead were prevalent in the Methow Basin, they produced only 2 parr and no returning adults in Beaver Creek. On average, individual wild steelhead produced more parr offspring than the fluvial or hatchery groups. Yet, the offspring that returned as adult steelhead were from parents that produced few parr offspring, indicating that high production of parr offspring may not be related to greater returns of adult offspring. These data in combination with other studies of sympatric life histories of O. mykiss indicate that fluvial rainbow trout are important to the conservation and recovery of steelhead and should be included in the management and recovery efforts.

Washington↗

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in raptors

The use of analgesia has become standard, and appropriate, practice in avian medicine. As in mammals, pain control in avian patients is usually accomplished with opioids and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) used singly or in combination for a multimodal approach. Despite their usefulness, widespread use, and relative safety in clinical use, few controlled studies in birds have been conducted on efficacy, safety, and dosing. The guidelines for the use of NSAIDs in raptors and other birds have mainly been empirical. More recently, NSAIDs in free-living raptors have emerged as a major conservation issue with the discovery that diclofenac sodium was responsible for the population crash of three species of Gyps vultures in southern Asia. In this context, residues of veterinary NSAIDs in domestic animals are now considered environmental contaminants that can be significantly toxic to vultures and possibly other avian scavengers. Ironically, the disaster with Asian vultures has led to a considerable body of research on NSAIDs in raptors to the benefit of clinicians who now have scientific information available to help assess dosing, safety, toxicity, and pharmacokinetics of NSAIDs in their raptor patients.

Book chapter↗

Addressing detection uncertainty in Bombus affinis (Hymenoptera: Apidae) surveys can improve inferences made from monitoring

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service developed national guidelines to track species recovery of the endangered rusty patched bumble bee [ Bombus affinis Cresson (Hymenoptera: Apidae)] and to investigate changes in species occupancy across space and time. As with other native bee monitoring efforts, managers have specifically acknowledged the need to address species detection uncertainty and determine the sampling effort required to infer species absence within sites. We used single-season, single-species occupancy models fit to field data collected in four states to estimate imperfect detection of B. affinis and to determine the survey effort required to achieve high confidence of species detection. Our analysis revealed a precipitous, seasonal, decline in B. affinis detection probability throughout the July through September sampling window in 2021. We estimated that six, 30-min surveys conducted in early July are required to achieve a 95% cumulative detection probability, whereas >10 surveys would be required in early August to achieve the same level of confidence. Our analysis also showed B. affinis was less likely to be detected during hot and humid days and at patches of reduced habitat quality. Bombus affinis was frequently observed on Monarda fistulosa (Lamiales: Lamiaceae), followed by [ Pycnanthemum virginianum Rob. and Fernald (Lamiales: Lamiaceae)] , Eutrochium maculatum Lamont (Asterales: Asteraceae), and Veronicastrum virginicum Farw. (Lamiales: Plantaginaceae). Although our research is focused on B. affinis , it is relevant for monitoring other bumble bees of conservation concern, such as B. occidentalis Greene (Hymenoptera: Apidae) and B. terricola Kirby (Hymenoptera: Apidae) for which monitoring efforts have been recently initiated and occupancy is a variable of conservation interest.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Thirteen novel ideas and underutilized resources to support progress towards a range-wide American eel stock assessment

A robust assessment of the American eel ( Anguilla rostrata ) stock, required to guide conservation efforts, is challenged by the species’ vast range, high variability in demographic parameters and data inadequacies. Novel ideas and underutilised resources that may assist both analytic assessments and spatially oriented modelling include (1) species and environmental databases; (2) mining of data from scattered sources; (3) infilling of data gaps by spatial analysis; (4) age estimation from measurements of DNA methylation; evaluation of eel abundance by (5) larval, (6) glass-bottom boat, (7) net enclosure and (8) eDNA surveys; (9) accounting for dam-induced habitat increases in eel watercourse modelling; (10) spatially oriented modelling with and without temporal components; (11) geographically nested modelling of glass eel recruitment; (12) spawner per recruit modelling and (13) life cycle modelling to examine larval allocation effects. Eel biologists are too few to gather the required assessment data across all of the species’ range. Public posting of electrofishing and eDNA metabarcoding data sets and the use of machine learning techniques to comprehensively inventory small dams will help meet some data needs. These approaches address only a small proportion of the assessment challenges that face American eels. Worldwide collaboration amongst Anguilla scientists is a key enabler of progress towards stock assessment goals.

North America, South America↗

Managing native and non-native sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) through anthropogenic change: A prospective assessment of key threats and uncertainties

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is a species of conservation concern in their native range of the Atlantic coasts of Europe (Near Threatened to Critically Endangered) and North America (Secure to Critically Imperiled), and an invasive species of great economic and ecological concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite differences in life history strategy (anadromous natives vs adfluvial non-natives), the biology of sea lamprey is sufficiently similar to expect comparable responses to large-scale environmental change. We take a prospective look at the future (50 to 100 years) of sea lamprey management in an era of considerable environmental disturbance, and consider biological responses, management actions, and the future status of populations across the native and non-native ranges. Based on facilitated discussion by a diverse group of international experts, two major but poorly characterized classes of threats to sea lamprey were identified: climate change and socio-political issues. We discuss how climate induced changes affect growth, bioenergetics, and phenology of sea lamprey, and associated effects on control tactics (pesticides and barriers) and conservation. We consider tensions surrounding improving connectivity in the Great Lakes while controlling invasive sea lamprey, and discuss supplements and alternatives to pesticides and their wider effect, as well as the effects of new invasive species. To prevent the extirpation of native sea lamprey populations, or the re-expansion of non-native populations, we conclude with a call for new and ongoing dialogue and collaboration among all sea lamprey biologists and managers across the native and non-native range.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Dynamic multistate site occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses relevant to conservation of Golden Eagles in Denali National Park, Alaska

The recent development of multistate site occupancy models offers great opportunities to frame and solve decision problems for conservation that can be viewed in terms of site occupancy. These models have several characteristics (e.g., they account for detectability) that make them particularly well suited for addressing management and conservation problems. We applied multistate site occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses related to the conservation and management of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park, Alaska, and provided estimates of transition probabilities among three occupancy states for nesting areas (occupied with successful reproduction, occupied with unsuccessful reproduction, and unoccupied). Our estimation models included the effect of potential recreational activities (hikers) and environmental covariates such as a snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) index on transition probabilities among the three occupancy states. Based on the most parsimonious model, support for the hypothesis of an effect of potential human disturbance on site occupancy dynamics was equivocal. There was some evidence that potential human disturbance negatively affected local colonization of territories, but there was no evidence of an effect on reproductive performance parameters. In addition, models that assume a positive relationship between the hare index and successful reproduction were well supported by the data. The statistical approach that we used is particularly useful to parameterize management models that can then be used to make optimal decisions related to the management of Golden Eagles in Denali. Although in our case we were particularly interested in managing recreational activities, we believe that such models should be useful to for a broad class of management and conservation problems.

Alaska↗

Lions and leopards coexist without spatial, temporal or demographic effects of interspecific competition

1. Although interspecific competition plays a principle role in shaping species behaviour and demography, little is known about the population-level outcomes of competition between large carnivores, and the mechanisms that facilitate coexistence. 2. We conducted a multi-landscape analysis of two widely distributed, threatened large carnivore competitors to offer insight into coexistence strategies and assist with species-level conservation. 3. We evaluated how interference competition affects occupancy, temporal activity and population density of a dominant competitor, the lion (Panthera leo), and its subordinate competitor, the leopard (Panthera pardus). We collected camera-trap data over three years in ten study sites covering 5,070 km2. We used multispecies occupancy modelling to assess spatial responses in varying environmental and prey conditions and competitor presence, and examined temporal overlap and the relationship between lion and leopard densities across sites and years. 4. Results showed that both lion and leopard occupancy was independent of – rather than conditional on – their competitor’s presence across all environmental covariates. Marginal occupancy probability for leopard was higher in areas with more bushy, ‘hideable’ habitat, human (tourist) activity and topographic ruggedness, whereas lion occupancy decreased with increasing hideable habitat and increased with higher abundance of very large prey. Temporal overlap was high between carnivores and there was no significant relationship between species densities. 4. Lions pose a threat to the survival of individual leopards, but they exerted no tractable influence on leopard spatial or temporal dynamics. Furthermore, lions did not appear to suppress leopard populations, suggesting that intraguild competitors can coexist in the same areas without population decline. Aligned conservation strategies that promote functioning ecosystems, rather than target individual species, are therefore suggested to achieve cost- and space-effective conservation.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

Habitat overlap between Asiatic black bear Ursus thibetanus and red panda Ailurus fulgens in Himalaya

Studying habitat overlap between sympatric species is one of the best ways to identify interspecies relationships and to direct conservation efforts so that multiple species can benefit. However, studies exploring interspecies relationships are very limited in Nepal, making it difficult for the government of Nepal and conservation partners to manage wildlife in their habitats, especially in Himalayan protected areas. In this study, we identified habitat overlap between Asiatic black bear ( Ursus thibetanus ) and red panda ( Ailurus fulgens ) as well as important habitat types for both species in the Makalu Barun National Park, Nepal using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. GPS points of species occurrence were collected from the field, and environmental variables were extracted from freely available sources. We found that the study area contained 647 km 2 of Asiatic black bear habitat and 443 km 2 of the red panda habitat. 368 km 2 supported both species, which constituted 57% of the Asiatic black bear habitat and 83% of the red panda habitat. We found that conifer forest was the most important habitat type for both species. Because the largest portions of both species’ habitat were located inside the buffer zone, a peripheral zone of national park, conservation efforts for these sympatric species should be focused inside the buffer zone to be most effective.

PLoS ONE↗

Evaluation of environmental DNA surveys for identifying occupancy and spatial distribution of Pacific Lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) and Lampetra spp. in a Washington coast watershed

Surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA) have become an important and multifaceted tool for monitoring and identifying distributions and occupancy of aquatic species. This tool is attractive because it is powerful, easy to apply, and provides an alternative to traditional field survey methods. However, validating eDNA survey methods against traditional field survey methods is warranted prior to their application. We used eDNA and electrofishing to survey 10 sites in 3 tributaries of the Chehalis River, Washington, to infer distribution and occupancy of Entosphenus tridentatus and Lampetra spp. Both methods produced similar detection rates for E . tridentatus , and Lampetra spp. were detected at slightly greater frequency with eDNA in the Black River and Skookumchuck River. Within each of the three tributaries, eDNA concentration was negatively related to sample distance from the Chehalis River mainstem for E . tridentatus but not for Lampetra spp., which indicates E . tridentatus and Lampetra spp. may be distributed differently within tributaries. Application of lamprey eDNA data to a multiscale occupancy model indicated high probability of detecting eDNA in water samples and quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. Broad distribution and high detection of E. tridentatus and Lampetra spp. suggest robust populations inhabit the Chehalis River basin. Our findings suggest eDNA surveys may be comparable to electrofishing for informing lamprey occupancy and distributions. Such sampling is efficient and cost‐effective and we anticipate that eDNA surveys will become a valuable tool in addressing key research and monitoring needs for conservation and restoration of lampreys in general.

Washington↗

A spatially explicit modeling framework to guide management of subsidized avian predator densities

Anthropogenic resource subsidization across western ecosystems has contributed to widespread increases in generalist avian predators, including common ravens ( Corvus corax ; hereafter, raven). Ravens are adept nest predators and can negatively impact species of conservation concern. Predation effects from ravens are especially concerning for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), which have experienced prolonged population decline. Our objectives were to quantify spatiotemporal patterns in raven density, evaluate sage-grouse nest success concurrent with fluctuating raven densities, and demonstrate a spatially explicit decision support tool to guide management applications to appropriate conflict areas. We combined ~28,000 raven point count surveys with data from more than 900 sage-grouse nests between 2009 and 2019 within the Great Basin, USA. We modeled variation in raven density using a Bayesian hierarchical distance sampling approach with environmental covariates on detection and abundance. Concurrently, we modeled sage-grouse nest survival using a hierarchical frailty model as a function of raven density and other environmental covariates that influence the risk of nest failure. Raven density commonly exceeded 0.5 ravens km −2 and increased at low elevations with more anthropogenic development and/or agriculture. Reduced sage-grouse nest survival was strongly associated with elevated raven density (e.g., >0.5 ravens km −2 ) and varied with topographic ruggedness, shrub cover, and burned areas. For conservation application, we developed a spatially explicit planning tool that predicts nest survival under current and reduced raven numbers within the Great Basin to help direct management actions to localized areas where sage-grouse nests are at highest risk of failure. Our modeling framework can be generalized to multiple species where spatially registered abundance and demographic data are available.

Nevada↗

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.

Polar Biology↗

Relative contributions of sampling effort, measuring, and weighing to precision of larval sea lamprey biomass estimates

We developed two weight-length models from 231 populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) collected from tributaries of the Great Lakes: Lake Ontario (21), Lake Erie (6), Lake Huron (67), Lake Michigan (76), and Lake Superior (61). Both models were mixed models, which used population as a random effect and additional environmental factors as fixed effects. We resampled weights and lengths 1,000 times from data collected in each of 14 other populations not used to develop the models, obtaining a weight and length distribution from reach resampling. To test model performance, we applied the two weight-length models to the resampled length distributions and calculated the predicted mean weights. We also calculated the observed mean weight for each resampling and for each of the original 14 data sets. When the average of predicted means was compared to means from the original data in each stream, inclusion of environmental factors did not consistently improve the performance of the weight-length model. We estimated the variance associated with measures of abundance and mean weight for each of the 14 selected populations and determined that a conservative estimate of the proportional contribution to variance associated with estimating abundance accounted for 32% to 95% of the variance (mean = 66%). Variability in the biomass estimate appears more affected by variability in estimating abundance than in converting length to weight. Hence, efforts to improve the precision of biomass estimates would be aided most by reducing the variability associated with estimating abundance.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

The importance of environmental variability and management control error to optimal harvest policies

State-dependent strategies (SDSs) are the most general form of harvest policy because they allow the harvest rate to depend, without constraint, on the state of the system. State-dependent strategies that provide an optimal harvest rate for any system state can be calculated, and stochasticity can be appropriately accommodated in this optimization. Stochasticity poses 2 challenges to harvest policies: (1) the population will never be at the equilibrium state; and (2) stochasticity induces uncertainty about future states. We investigated the effects of 2 types of stochasticity, environmental variability and management control error, on SDS harvest policies for a white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) model, and contrasted these with a harvest policy based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Increasing stochasticity resulted in more conservative SDSs; that is, higher population densities were required to support the same harvest rate, but these effects were generally small. As stochastic effects increased, SDSs performed much better than MSY. Both deterministic and stochastic SDSs maintained maximum mean annual harvest yield (AHY) and optimal equilibrium population size (Neq) in a stochastic environment, whereas an MSY policy could not. We suggest 3 rules of thumb for harvest management of long-lived vertebrates in stochastic systems: (1) an SDS is advantageous over an MSY policy, (2) using an SDS rather than an MSY is more important than whether a deterministic or stochastic SDS is used, and (3) for SDSs, rankings of the variability in management outcomes (e.g., harvest yield) resulting from parameter stochasticity can be predicted by rankings of the deterministic elasticities.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗