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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Cyanotoxin production in shallow subtropical lakes is driven by nutrient enrichment and primary producer abundance on the millennial scale

Increased cyanotoxin concentrations from harmful algal blooms (HABs) in lake systems pose a global challenge to water quality. Although progress has been made in monitoring cyanotoxins in modern environments over recent decades, identifying the triggers of cyanotoxin release by cyanobacteria has yielded mixed results from experimental and analytical studies. Paleolimnological reconstructions can reveal whole-lake long-term changes, but few studies have directly measured cyanotoxins alongside other water quality proxies. Here, we investigated the drivers of sedimentary total microcystin (MC) concentrations on millennial scales in hypereutrophic Lakes Dora and Marian in central Florida, USA. We analyzed dated sediment records using paleolimnological techniques to reconstruct nutrient deposition, cyanobacteria abundance (photosynthetic pigments), and cyanotoxins (total MCs). The objective was to investigate the linkage between MC concentrations in the sediments with both biotic (cyanobacteria and other primary producers) and abiotic factors (nutrients and climate). We found that MC production occurred throughout the ∼7000-year period, progressing from periods of moderate to low, and then to high concentrations in both lakes. Statistical analyses showed that historical MC concentrations were correlated with sedimentary measurements of total phosphorus (TP), cyanobacteria abundance, and other primary producer groups, such as cryptophytes. However, there was only a minimal correspondence with climate proxies, such as charcoal and pollen, suggesting that internal nutrient cycling and human pressures were the dominant drivers of MC deposition. Our study demonstrates that cyanotoxins have occurred for millennia in both lakes with maintained relationships to nutrients and other environmental factors that existed both in historic and modern limnological conditions.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Wildlife ecological risk assessment in the 21st century: Promising technologies to assess toxicological effects

Despite advances in toxicity testing and development of new approach methodologies (NAMs) for hazard assessment, the ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework for terrestrial wildlife (i.e., air-breathing amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) has remained unchanged for decades. While survival, growth, and reproductive endpoints derived from whole animal toxicity tests are central to hazard assessment, non-standard measures of biological effects at multiple levels of biological organization (e.g., molecular, cellular, tissue, organ, organism, population, community, ecosystem) have potential to enhance the relevance of prospective and retrospective wildlife ERAs. Other factors (e.g., indirect effects of contaminants on food supplies and infectious disease processes) are influenced by toxicants at individual, population, and community levels, and need to be factored into chemically-based risk assessments to enhance the “eco” component of ERAs. Regulatory and logistical challenges often relegate such non-standard endpoints and indirect effects to post-registration evaluations of pesticides and industrial chemicals, and contaminated site evaluations. While NAMs are being developed, to date their applications in ERAs focused on wildlife have been limited. No single magic tool or model will address all uncertainties in hazard assessment. Modernizing wildlife ERAs will likely entail combinations of laboratory and field-derived data at multiple levels of biological organization, knowledge collection solutions (e.g., systematic review, adverse outcome pathway frameworks), and inferential methods that facilitate integrations and risk estimations focused on species, populations, interspecific extrapolations, and ecosystem services modeling, with less dependence on whole animal data and simple hazard ratios.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2022

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata . We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2025

Metabarcoding analysis of arthropod pollinator diversity: A methodological comparison of eDNA derived from flowers and DNA derived from bulk samples of insects

Limitations of traditional insect sampling methods have motivated the development and optimisation of new non-lethal methods capable of quantifying diverse arthropod communities. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding using arthropod-specific primers has recently been investigated as a novel way to characterise arthropod communities from the DNA they deposit on the surface of plants. This sampling method has had demonstrated success, but pollinators—especially bees—are oddly underrepresented in these studies. To evaluate this inconsistency, we investigated the limitations of eDNA metabarcoding for bees and other pollinators. We compared pollinator diversity derived from eDNA extracted from flowers and DNA extracted from pulverised bulk samples of insects collected from vane traps deployed at the same sites using three metabarcoding primers, two of which target arthropods generally (COI-Jusino and 16S-Marquina) and one that targets bumblebees ( Bombus spp., COI-Milam). Across methods, we detected 77 insect families from 9 orders. The COI-Jusino marker amplified the highest taxonomic diversity compared to 16S-Marquina and COI-Milam. More amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were recovered from vane traps (blue: 1357, yellow: 1542) than flowers (245), but only 23% of families and 13% of genera were shared among methods, indicating that flowers and blue and yellow vane traps may each sample different parts of the available arthropod community. Of 29 flower samples with known bee visitations, only 10 samples had bee detections from eDNA, and incomplete reference databases hindered assignment to species. Although our study provides additional evidence for the usefulness of eDNA metabarcoding for characterising arthropod communities, significant challenges remain when using eDNA metabarcoding methods to identify and quantify pollinator communities, especially bees.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2016

Discontinuities concentrate mobile predators: Quantifying organism-environment interactions at a seascape scale

Understanding environmental drivers of spatial patterns is an enduring ecological problem that is critical for effective biological conservation. Discontinuities (ecologically meaningful habitat breaks), both naturally occurring (e.g., river confluence, forest edge, drop-off) and anthropogenic (e.g., dams, roads), can influence the distribution of highly mobile organisms that have land- or seascape scale ranges. A geomorphic discontinuity framework, expanded to include ecological patterns, provides a way to incorporate important but irregularly distributed physical features into organism–environment relationships. Here, we test if migratory striped bass ( Morone saxatilis ) are consistently concentrated by spatial discontinuities and why. We quantified the distribution of 50 acoustically tagged striped bass at 40 sites within Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts during four-monthly surveys relative to four physical discontinuities (sandbar, confluence, channel network, drop-off), one continuous physical feature (depth variation), and a geographic location variable (region). Despite moving throughout the estuary, striped bass were consistently clustered in the middle geographic region at sites with high sandbar area, close to channel networks, adjacent to complex confluences, with intermediate levels of bottom unevenness, and medium sized drop-offs. In addition, the highest striped bass concentrations occurred at sites with the greatest additive physical heterogeneity (i.e., where multiple discontinuities co-occurred). The need to incorporate irregularly distributed features in organism–environment relationships will increase as high-quality telemetry and GIS data accumulate for mobile organisms. The spatially explicit approach we used to address this challenge can aid both researchers who seek to understand the impact of predators on ecosystems and resource managers who require new approaches for biological conservation.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2009

A Chronosequence Feasibility Assessment of Emergency Fire Rehabilitation Records within the Intermountain Western United States - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program - Project 08-S-08

Department of the Interior (DOI) bureaus have invested heavily (for example, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) spent more than $60 million in fiscal year 2007) in seeding vegetation for emergency stabilization and burned area rehabilitation of non-forested arid lands over the past 10 years. The primary objectives of these seedings commonly are to (1) reduce the post-fire dominance of non-native annual grasses, such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and red brome (Bromus rubens); (2) minimize the probability of recurrent fire; and (3) ultimately produce desirable vegetation characteristics (for example, ability to recover following disturbance [resilience], resistance to invasive species, and a capacity to support a diverse flora and fauna). Although these projects historically have been monitored to varying extents, land managers currently lack scientific evidence to verify whether seeding arid and semiarid lands achieves desired objectives. Given the amount of resources dedicated to post-fire seeding projects, a synthesis of information determining the factors that result in successful treatments is critically needed. Although results of recently established experiments and monitoring projects eventually will provide useful insights for the future direction of emergency stabilization and burned area rehabilitation programs, a chronosequence approach evaluating emergency stabilization and burned area rehabilitation treatments (both referenced hereafter as ESR treatments) over the past 30 years could provide a comprehensive assessment of treatment success across a range of regional environmental gradients. By randomly selecting a statistically robust sample from the population of historic ESR treatments in the Intermountain West, this chronosequence approach would have inference for most ecological sites in this region. The goal of this feasibility study was to compile and examine historic ESR records from BLM field offices across the Intermountain West to determine whether sufficient documentation existed for a future field-based chronosequence project. We collected ESR records and data at nine BLM field offices in four States (Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah) and examined the utility of these data for the development of a chronosequence study of post-fire seeding treatments from multiple sites and different ages (since seeding) throughout the Intermountain West. We collected records from 730 post-fire seeding projects with 1,238 individual seeding treatments. Records from each project ranged from minimal reporting of the project's occurrence to detailed documentation of planning, implementation, and monitoring. Of these 1,238 projects, we identified 468 (38 percent) that could potentially be used to implement a field-based chronosequence study. There were 206 ground-seeding treatments and 262 aerial-seeding treatments within this initial population, not including hand plantings. We also located a considerable number of additional records from other potential field offices that would be available for the chronosequence study but have yet to be compiled for this feasibility report. There are a number of potential challenges involved in going forward with a field-based chronosequence study derived from data collected at these nine BLM offices. One challenge is that not all seed mixtures in ESR project files have on-the-ground confirmation about what was sown or rates of application. Most projects, particularly records before 2000, just list the planned or purchased seed mixtures. Although this could potentially bias assessments of factors influencing establishment rates of individual species for treatments conducted before 2000, a chronosequence study would not be intended to assess success solely at the species-level. Treatment success would be evaluated based on the establishment of healthy vegetation communities, such as the abundance and density of perennial species, regardless of their lifeforms (grasses, fo

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Imputation approaches for animal movement modeling

The analysis of telemetry data is common in animal ecological studies. While the collection of telemetry data for individual animals has improved dramatically, the methods to properly account for inherent uncertainties (e.g., measurement error, dependence, barriers to movement) have lagged behind. Still, many new statistical approaches have been developed to infer unknown quantities affecting animal movement or predict movement based on telemetry data. Hierarchical statistical models are useful to account for some of the aforementioned uncertainties, as well as provide population-level inference, but they often come with an increased computational burden. For certain types of statistical models, it is straightforward to provide inference if the latent true animal trajectory is known, but challenging otherwise. In these cases, approaches related to multiple imputation have been employed to account for the uncertainty associated with our knowledge of the latent trajectory. Despite the increasing use of imputation approaches for modeling animal movement, the general sensitivity and accuracy of these methods have not been explored in detail. We provide an introduction to animal movement modeling and describe how imputation approaches may be helpful for certain types of models. We also assess the performance of imputation approaches in two simulation studies. Our simulation studies suggests that inference for model parameters directly related to the location of an individual may be more accurate than inference for parameters associated with higher-order processes such as velocity or acceleration. Finally, we apply these methods to analyze a telemetry data set involving northern fur seals ( Callorhinus ursinus ) in the Bering Sea. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗
USGS2026

Tidal forested wetlands can be incorporated into blue carbon conservation and restoration strategies

Purpose of Review Blue carbon is an important concept for environmental policy. Blue carbon strategies (conservation and restoration for carbon gain) have been primarily implemented with mangroves, though are likely to be suitable for other tidal forested wetlands. Here, we discuss the expanding definition of blue carbon encompassing all tidal forested wetlands, synthesize ecological and carbon sink knowledge of tidal forested wetlands, and reflect on key actions in mangrove blue carbon research and implementation that could be applied to other tidal forested wetlands. Recent Findings Conceptually, the blue carbon concept has now expanded beyond traditional coastal vegetated ecosystems to include all tidal wetlands, including tidal forested wetlands. Emerging data on carbon sequestration, emissions, and budgets from around the world now show that many tidal forested wetland ecosystems are carbon sinks at a magnitude similar to mangroves. At the global scale, mangroves have become incorporated into blue carbon strategies rapidly compared to other tidal forested wetlands, facilitated by agenda-setting papers, adequate data addressing concerns on emissions and permanence, the availability of global maps, a clear ecosystem definition, clear accounting and policy frameworks, and international stakeholders who acted as high profile ecosystem advocates, alongside long-term capacity building efforts. This provides a roadmap for implementation in other tidal forested wetlands. Summary Tidal forested wetlands other than mangroves have high potential for blue carbon management. Many tidal forested wetlands share biophysical similarities with mangroves, carbon stocks can be similar, and methane emissions are often no higher. An increasing evidence base, challenging assumptions around greenhouse gas fluxes, and robust engagement with policy actors and frameworks, could increase the use of blue carbon for tidal forested wetland conservation and restoration.

Current Forestry Reports↗
USGS2020

The clock keeps ticking: Circadian rhythms of free-ranging polar bears

Life in the Arctic presents organisms with multiple challenges, including extreme photic conditions, cold temperatures, and annual loss and daily movement of sea ice. Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) evolved under these unique conditions, where they rely on ice to hunt their main prey, seals. However, very little is known about the dynamics of their daily and seasonal activity patterns. For many organisms, activity is synchronized (entrained) to the earth’s day/night cycle, in part via an endogenous (circadian) timekeeping mechanism. The present study used collar-mounted accelerometer and global positioning system data from 122 female polar bears in the Chukchi and Southern Beaufort Seas collected over an 8-year period to characterize activity patterns over the calendar year and to determine if circadian rhythms are expressed under the constant conditions found in the Arctic. We reveal that the majority of polar bears (80%) exhibited rhythmic activity for the duration of their recordings. Collectively within the rhythmic bear cohort, circadian rhythms were detected during periods of constant daylight (June-August; 24.40 ± 1.39 h, mean ± SD) and constant darkness (23.89 ± 1.72 h). Exclusive of denning periods (November-April), the time of peak activity remained relatively stable (acrophases: ~1200-1400 h) for most of the year, suggesting either entrainment or masking. However, activity patterns shifted during the spring feeding and seal pupping season, as evidenced by an acrophase inversion to ~2400 h in April, followed by highly variable timing of activity across bears in May. Intriguingly, despite the dynamic environmental photoperiodic conditions, unpredictable daily timing of prey availability, and high between-animal variability, the average duration of activity (alpha) remained stable (11.2 ± 2.9 h) for most of the year. Together, these results reveal a high degree of behavioral plasticity in polar bears while also retaining circadian rhythmicity. Whether this degree of plasticity will benefit polar bears faced with a loss of sea ice remains to be determined.

Alaska↗
USGS2007

The Charles River, Eastern Massachusetts: Scientific Information in Support of Environmental Restoration

Human activity has profoundly altered the Charles River and its watershed over the past 375 years. Restoration of environmental quality in the watershed has become a high priority for private- and public-sector organizations across the region. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Massachusetts Executive Office of Environmental Affairs worked together to coordinate the efforts of the various organizations. One result of this initiative has been a series of scientific studies that provide critical information concerning some of the major hydrologic and ecological concerns in the watershed. These studies have focused upon: * Streamflows - Limited aquifer storage, growing water demands, and the spread of impervious surfaces are some of the factors exacerbating low summer streamflows in headwater areas of the watershed. Coordinated management of withdrawals, wastewater returns, and stormwater runoff could substantially increase low streamflows in the summer. Innovative approaches to flood control, including preservation of upstream wetland storage capacity and construction of a specially designed dam at the river mouth, have greatly reduced flooding in the lower part of the watershed in recent decades. * Water quality - Since the mid-1990s, the bacterial quality of the Charles River has improved markedly, because discharges from combined sewer overflows and the number of illicit sewer connections to municipal storm drains have been reduced. Improved management of stormwater runoff will likely be required, however, for full attainment of State and Federal water-quality standards. Phosphorus inputs from a variety of sources remain an important water-quality problem. * Fish communities and habitat quality - The Charles River watershed supports a varied fish community of about 20 resident and migratory species. Habitat conditions for fish and other aquatic species have improved in many parts of the river system in recent years. However, serious challenges remain, including the control of nutrients, algae, and invasive plants, mitigation of dam impacts, addressing remaining sources of bacteria to the river, and remediation of contaminated bottom habitat and the nontidal salt wedge in the lower river.

General Information Product↗
USGS2017

Five-year external reviews of the eight Department of Interior Climate Science Centers: Southeast Climate Science Center

In 2008, the U.S. Congress authorized the establishment of the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI). Housed administratively within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NCCWSC is part of the DOI’s ongoing mission to meet the challenges of climate change and its effects on wildlife and aquatic resources. From 2010 through 2012, NCCWSC established eight regional DOI Climate Science Centers (CSCs). Each of these regional CSCs operated with the mission to “synthesize and integrate climate change impact data and develop tools that the Department’s managers and partners can use when managing the Department’s land, water, fish and wildlife, and cultural heritage resources” (Salazar 2009). The model developed by NCCWSC for the regional CSCs employed a dual approach of a federal USGS-staffed component and a parallel host-university component established competitively through a 5-year cooperative agreement with NCCWSC. At the conclusion of this 5-year agreement, a review of each CSC was undertaken, with the Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) review in February 2016. The SE CSC is hosted by North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, and is physically housed within the NCSU Department of Applied Ecology along with the Center for Applied Aquatic Ecology, the North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit (CFWRU), and the North Carolina Agromedicine Institute. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Southeast Regional Climate Hub is based at NCSU as is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Southeast Regional Climate Center, the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, the NOAA National Weather Service, the State Climate Office of North Carolina, and the U.S. Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center. This creates a strong core of organizations operating in close proximity focused on climate issues. The geographic area covered by the SE CSC represents all or part of 16 states and the Caribbean Islands and has overlapping boundaries with seven Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): Appalachian LCC, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers LCC, Gulf Coast Prairie LCC, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks LCC, Peninsular Florida LCC, South Atlantic LCC, and Caribbean LCC. The SE CSC region also encompasses 134 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuges and 89 National Park Service (NPS) units and is home to 11 federally recognized and 54 state recognized tribes.

Report↗
USGS2021

Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts. The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information. The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are: (1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time. Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise. (2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced. Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate. (3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts. Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity. The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2025

RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) switch points and triggers for adaptation planning

Climate change is transforming ecosystems globally. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework has gained traction within many natural resource management institutions to help consider the decision space in response to this transformation. Because RAD helps manage for directional change, RAD choices entail considering which RAD pathway to implement and for how long. For example, one may accept a slowly changing ecosystem, but at a certain point, decide to begin resisting or directing the change an ecosystem is experiencing. Alternatively, one may begin resisting an ecosystem transformation, but ultimately realize resistance is no longer feasible based on cost or efficacy. These choices are challenging and encompass broad domains of cultural, ecological, financial, organizational, public, regulatory, and technological considerations to determine when to switch RAD pathways. We introduce the concepts of RAD switch points and triggers to help support these decision processes. We illustrate these concepts using case studies on walleye ( Sander vitreus ) stocking decisions in Wisconsin, wildfire response in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) management in Oregon, USA. Synthesizing across these examples, we delineate key points for decision makers as they (iteratively) reevaluate among the RAD pathways as conditions continue to change.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2023

Review and development of best practices for toxicity tests with dreissenid mussels

Since their introduction to North America in the 1980s, research to develop effective control tools for invasive mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and D. rostriformis bugensis ) has been ongoing across various research institutions using a range of testing methods. Inconsistencies in experimental methods and reporting present challenges for comparing data, repeating experiments, and applying results. The Invasive Mussel Collaborative established the Toxicity Testing Work Group (TTWG) in 2019 to identify “best practices” and guide development of a standard framework for dreissenid mussel toxicity testing protocols. We reviewed the literature related to laboratory-based dreissenid mussel toxicity tests and determined the degree to which standard guidelines have been used and their applicability to dreissenid mussel testing. We extracted detailed methodology from 99 studies from the peer-reviewed and gray literature and conducted a separate analysis for studies using presettlement and postsettlement mussels. We identified specific components of methods and approaches that could be refined or standardized for dreissenid mussels. These components included species identification, collection methods, size/age class distinction, maintenance practices, testing criteria, sample size, response measures, reporting parameters, exposure methods, and mortality criteria. We consulted experts in the field of aquatic toxicology and dreissenid mussel biology on our proposed. The final recommendations contained in the present review are based on published standard guidelines, methods reported in the published and gray literature, and the expertise of TTWG members and an external panel. In addition, our review identifies research needs for dreissenid mussel testing including improved methods for early–life stage testing, comparative data on life stages and between dreissenid mussel species, inclusion of a reference toxicant, and additional testing of nontarget species (i.e., other aquatic organisms). Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1649–1666. © 2023 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2009

Impacts of forest fragmentation on species richness: A hierarchical approach to community modelling

1. Species richness is often used as a tool for prioritizing conservation action. One method for predicting richness and other summaries of community structure is to develop species-specific models of occurrence probability based on habitat or landscape characteristics. However, this approach can be challenging for rare or elusive species for which survey data are often sparse. 2. Recent developments have allowed for improved inference about community structure based on species-specific models of occurrence probability, integrated within a hierarchical modelling framework. This framework offers advantages to inference about species richness over typical approaches by accounting for both species-level effects and the aggregated effects of landscape composition on a community as a whole, thus leading to increased precision in estimates of species richness by improving occupancy estimates for all species, including those that were observed infrequently. 3. We developed a hierarchical model to assess the community response of breeding birds in the Hudson River Valley, New York, to habitat fragmentation and analysed the model using a Bayesian approach. 4. The model was designed to estimate species-specific occurrence and the effects of fragment area and edge (as measured through the perimeter and the perimeter/area ratio, P/A), while accounting for imperfect detection of species. 5. We used the fitted model to make predictions of species richness within forest fragments of variable morphology. The model revealed that species richness of the observed bird community was maximized in small forest fragments with a high P/A. However, the number of forest interior species, a subset of the community with high conservation value, was maximized in large fragments with low P/A. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the responses of both individual, and groups of species, to environmental heterogeneity while illustrating the utility of hierarchical models for inference about species richness for conservation. This framework can be used to investigate the impacts of land-use change and fragmentation on species or assemblage richness, and to further understand trade-offs in species-specific occupancy probabilities associated with landscape variability.

New York↗
USGS2019

Integrating behavior and physiology into strategies for amphibian conservation

The amphibian decline crisis has been challenging to address because of the complexity of factors—and their multitude of interactive effects—that drive this global issue. Dissecting such complexity could benefit from strategies that integrate multiple disciplines and address the mechanistic underpinnings of population declines and extirpations. We examine how the disciplines of behavior and physiology could be used to develop conservation strategies for amphibians and identify eight research gaps that provide future directions for the emerging fields of conservation behavior and conservation physiology. We present two case studies on imperiled salamanders that show how studies of behavior and physiology may support amphibian conservation efforts. We found several applications of stress physiology to amphibian conservation, but long-term studies are needed to understand how stress ultimately affects individual fitness and population resilience. Additionally, multiple measures of physiological health are needed to provide a more holistic assessment of an individual’s overall condition. Previous behavioral and physiological studies have been instrumental for understanding how amphibians respond to habitat modification, pathogens and parasites, contaminants, and invasive species. Some behavior-based approaches to mitigating invasive species issues have been successful in short-term studies with individual species. However, widespread application of these tactics has not yet been integrated into conservation and management strategies for ecologically-similar species. A diversity of modeling approaches has enhanced understanding of how climate change may impact amphibian populations, but model predictions need empirical tests to provide conservation managers with workable approaches to multiple perturbations associated with global environmental change. We illustrate that behavior and physiology can have broad utility for amphibian conservation, but evidence is scant that such studies have actually been used to inform strategies for amphibian conservation and management.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2017

The practice of prediction: What can ecologists learn from applied, ecology-related fields?

The pervasive influence of human induced global environmental change affects biodiversity across the globe, and there is great uncertainty as to how the biosphere will react on short and longer time scales. To adapt to what the future holds and to manage the impacts of global change, scientists need to predict the expected effects with some confidence and communicate these predictions to policy makers. However, recent reviews found that we currently lack a clear understanding of how predictable ecology is, with views seeing it as mostly unpredictable to potentially predictable, at least over short time frames. However, in applied, ecology-related fields predictions are more commonly formulated and reported, as well as evaluated in hindsight, potentially allowing one to define baselines of predictive proficiency in these fields. We searched the literature for representative case studies in these fields and collected information about modeling approaches, target variables of prediction, predictive proficiency achieved, as well as the availability of data to parameterize predictive models. We find that some fields such as epidemiology achieve high predictive proficiency, but even in the more predictive fields proficiency is evaluated in different ways. Both phenomenological and mechanistic approaches are used in most fields, but differences are often small, with no clear superiority of one approach over the other. Data availability is limiting in most fields, with long-term studies being rare and detailed data for parameterizing mechanistic models being in short supply. We suggest that ecologists adopt a more rigorous approach to report and assess predictive proficiency, and embrace the challenges of real world decision making to strengthen the practice of prediction in ecology.

Ecological Complexity↗
USGS2022

Combining process-based and data-driven approaches to forecast beach and dune change

Producing accurate hindcasts and forecasts with coupled models is challenging due to complex parameterizations that are difficult to ground in observational data. We present a calibration workflow that utilizes a series of machine learning algorithms paired with Windsurf, a coupled beach-dune model (Aeolis, the Coastal Dune Model, and XBeach), to produce hindcasts and forecasts of morphologic change along Bogue Banks, North Carolina. Neural networks paired with genetic algorithms allow us to fine tune calibration parameters for the hindcast, and then a long short-term memory neural network, trained on the hindcast, produces a 4-year forecast. We compare our hindcasts to observations from 2016 to 2017 and find they successfully reproduce observed modes of dune and beach change except for seaward growth of the dune face. We compare our forecasts to observations from 2016 to 2020 and find that they produce reasonably accurate predictions of dune change except when there are significant instances of erosion during the forecast period.

North Carolina↗