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USGS2013

Distribution of indoor radon concentrations in Pennsylvania, 1990-2007

Results from 548,507 indoor radon tests from a database compiled by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Radiation Protection, Radon Division, are evaluated in this report in an effort to determine areas where concentrations of radon are highest. Indoor radon concentrations were aggregated according to geologic unit and hydrogeologic setting for spatial analysis. Indoor radon concentrations greater than or equal to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) action level of 4 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) were observed for 39 percent of the test results; the highest concentration was 1,866.4 pCi/L. When analyzed according to Pennsylvania’s geologic units, 93 of the 188 (49.5 percent) geologic units with indoor radon concentrations had median concentrations greater than the USEPA action level of 4 pCi/L; most of these geologic units are located in the eastern part of the State and include metamorphic rocks, limestones, sandstones, shales, and glacial deposits. When analyzed according to Pennsylvania’s hydrogeologic settings, 5 of the 20 (25 percent) settings had median indoor radon concentrations greater than the USEPA action level of 4 pCi/L; these settings are located mostly in the south-central part of the State. Median indoor radon concentrations aggregated according to geologic units and hydrogeologic settings are useful for drawing general conclusions about the occurrence of indoor radon in specific geologic units and hydrogeologic settings, but the associated data and maps have limitations. The aggregated indoor radon data have testing and spatial accuracy limitations due to lack of available information regarding testing conditions and the imprecision of geocoded test locations. In addition, the associated data describing geologic units and hydrogeologic settings have spatial and interpretation accuracy limitations, which are a result of using statewide data to define conditions at test locations and geologic data that represent a broad interpretation of geologic units across the State. As a result, indoor air radon concentration distributions are not proposed for use in predicting individual concentrations at specific sites nor for use as a decision-making tool for property owners to decide whether to test for indoor radon concentrations at specific property locations.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2010

Simulated groundwater flow in the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers, Rosebud Indian Reservation area, South Dakota – Revisions with data through water year 2008 and simulations of potential future scenarios

The Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers are important water resources in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area and are used extensively for irrigation, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Drought or increased withdrawals from the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area have the potential to affect water levels in these aquifers. This report documents revisions and recalibration of a previously published three-dimensional, numerical groundwater-flow model for this area. Data for a 30-year period (water years 1979 through 2008) were used in steady-state and transient numerical simulations of groundwater flow. In the revised model, revisions include (1) extension of the transient calibration period by 10 years, (2) the use of inverse modeling for steady-state calibration, (3) model calibration to base flow for an additional four surface-water drainage basins, (4) improved estimation of transient aquifer recharge, (5) improved delineation of vegetation types, and (6) reduced cell size near large capacity water-supply wells. In addition, potential future scenarios were simulated to assess the potential effects of drought and increased groundwater withdrawals. The model comprised two layers: the upper layer represented the Ogallala aquifer and the lower layer represented the Arikaree aquifer. The model’s grid had 168 rows and 202 columns, most of which were 1,640 feet (500 meters) wide, with narrower rows and columns near large water-supply wells. Recharge to the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers occurs from precipitation on the outcrop areas. The average recharge rates used for the steady-state simulation were 2.91 and 1.45 inches per year for the Ogallala aquifer and Arikaree aquifer, respectively, for a total rate of 255.4 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Discharge from the aquifers occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams as base flow and spring flow, and well withdrawals. Discharge rates for the steady-state simulation were 171.3 ft 3 /s for evapotranspiration, 74.4 ft 3 /s for net outflow to streams and springs, and 11.6 ft 3 /s for well withdrawals. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity used for the numerical model ranged from 0.2 to 84.4 feet per day (ft/d) in the Ogallala aquifer and from 0.1 to 4.3 ft/d in the Arikaree aquifer. A uniform vertical hydraulic conductivity value of 4.2x10 -4 ft/d was estimated for the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical hydraulic conductivity was estimated for five zones in the Arikaree aquifer and ranged from 8.8x10 -5 to 3.7 ft/d. Average rates of recharge, maximum evapotranspiration, and well withdrawals were included in the steady-state simulation, whereas the time-varying rates were included in the transient simulation. Inverse modeling techniques were used for steady-state model calibration. These methods were designed to estimate parameter values that are, statistically, the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed hydraulic heads and base-flow discharges. For the steady-state simulation, the root mean square error for simulated hydraulic heads for all 383 wells was 27.3 feet. Simulated hydraulic heads were within ±50 feet of observed values for 93 percent of the wells. The potentiometric surfaces of the two aquifers calculated by the steady-state simulation established initial conditions for the transient simulation. For the transient simulation, the difference between the simulated and observed means for hydrographs was within ±40 feet for 98 percent of 44 observation wells. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated steady-state model to changes in model parameters including horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, evapotranspiration, recharge, and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. To simulate a potential future drought scenario, a synthetic recharge record was created, the mean of which was equal to 64 percent of the average estimated recharge rate for the 30-year calibration period. This synthetic recharge record was used to simulate the last 20 years of the calibration period under drought conditions. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the drought scenario at the end of the simulation period were as much as 39 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 30-year calibration period for the last 20 years of the calibration period. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the scenario of increased pumping at the end of the simulation period were as much as 13 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. This numerical model is suitable as a tool to help understand the flow system, to help confirm that previous estimates of aquifer properties were reasonable, and to estimate aquifer properties in areas without data. The model also is useful to help assess the effects of drought and increases in pumping by simulations of these scenarios, the results of which are not precise but may be considered when making water management decisions.

South Dakota↗

USGS2013

Method to support Total Maximum Daily Load development using hydrologic alteration as a surrogate to address aquatic life impairment in New Jersey streams

More than 300 ambient monitoring sites in New Jersey have been identified by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) in its integrated water-quality monitoring and assessment report (that is, the 305(b) Report on general water quality and 303(d) List of waters that do not support their designated uses) as being impaired with respect to aquatic life; however, no unambiguous stressors (for example, nutrients or bacteria) have been identified. Because of the indeterminate nature of the broad range of possible impairments, surrogate measures that more holistically encapsulate the full suite of potential environmental stressors need to be developed. Streamflow alteration resulting from anthropogenic changes in the landscape is one such surrogate. For example, increases in impervious surface cover (ISC) commonly cause increases in surface runoff, which can result in “flashy” hydrology and other changes in the stream corridor that are associated with streamflow alteration. The NJDEP has indicated that methodologies to support a hydrologically based Total Maximum Daily Load (hydro-TMDL) need to be developed in order to identify hydrologic targets that represent a minimal percent deviation from a baseline condition (“minimally altered”) as a surrogate measure to meet criteria in support of designated uses. The primary objective of this study was to develop an applicable hydro-TMDL approach to address aquatic-life impairments associated with hydrologic alteration for New Jersey streams. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NJDEP, identified 51 non- to moderately impaired gaged streamflow sites in the Raritan River Basin for evaluation. Quantile regression (QR) analysis was used to compare flow and precipitation records and identify baseline hydrographs at 37 of these sites. At sites without an appropriately long period of record (POR) or where a baseline hydrograph could not be identified with QR, a rainfall-runoff model was used to develop simulated baseline hydrographs. The hydro-TMDL approach provided an opportunity to evaluate proportional differences in flow attributes between observed and baseline hydrographs and to develop complementary flow-ecology response relations at a subset of Raritan River Basin sites where available flow and ecological information overlapped. The New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT) was used to determine the stream class of all 51 study sites by using either an observed or a simulated baseline hydrograph. Two New Jersey stream classes (A and C) were evaluated to help characterize the unique hydrology of the Raritan River Basin. In general, class C streams (1.99–40.7 square miles) had smaller drainage areas than class A streams (0.7–785 square miles). Many of the non-impaired and moderately impaired class A and C streams in the Raritan River Basin were found to have significant hydrologic alteration as indicated by numerous flow values that fell outside the established 25th-to-75th- and the more conservative 40th-to-60th-percentile boundaries. However, percent deviations for the class C streams (defined as moderately stable streams with moderately high base-flow contributions) were, in general, much larger than those for the class A streams (defined as semiflashy streams characterized by moderately low base flow). The greater deviations for class C streams in the hydro-TMDL assessments likely resulted from comparisons that were based solely on simulated baseline hydrographs, which were developed without considering any anthropogenic influences in the basin. In contrast, comparisons for many of the class A streams were made by using an observed baseline, which already includes an implicit level of ISC and other human influences on the landscape. By using the hydro-TMDL approach, numerous flow deviations were identified that were indicative of streams that are highly regulated by reservoirs or dams, streams that are affected by increasing amounts of surface runoff resulting from ISC, and streams that are affected by water abstraction (that is, groundwater or surface-water withdrawals used for agricultural and human supply). Eight of the reservoir- and (or) dam-affected sites showed flow deviations that are indicative of flow-managed systems. For example, indices that account for the timing and magnitude of high and low flows were often found to fall outside the 25th-to-75th-percentile range. In general, at regulated class C streams, annual summer low flows are arriving later and tend to be lower, and high flows are arriving earlier with higher magnitudes of longer duration. At class A streams, high and low flows are arriving later with an overall increase in discharge with respect to the prereservoir baseline conditions. The drainage basins of eight of the study sites had large values of ISC (>10 percent), most likely as a result of expanding urban development. In general, the magnitude and frequency of high flows at class A and C sites with high ISC are increasing and were commonly found to fall outside the 25th-to-75th-percentile range. Additionally, magnitudes of low flows are becoming lower and, although the timing of high flows was highly variable, low-flow events appeared to be arriving earlier than would be expected under normal low-flow conditions. Three of the study sites appeared to be affected by hydrologic changes associated with water abstraction. At these sites, the timing of flows appeared to be altered. For example, low flows tended to arrive earlier and high flows arrived later at two of the three sites. Additionally, the magnitude and duration of low flows were commonly less than the 25th-percentile value and the duration of high flows appeared to increase. A reduced set of hydrologic and ecological variables was used to develop univariate and multivariate flow-ecology response models for the aquatic-invertebrate assemblage. Many hydrologic variables accounting for the duration, magnitude, frequency, and timing of flows were significantly correlated with ecological response. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed to provide a more holistic evaluation of the combined effects of hydrologic alteration and to identify models with two or three hydrologic variables that account for a significant proportion of the variability in invertebrate-assemblage condition as represented by assemblage metric scores. MLR models, derived on the basis of hydrologic attributes, accounted for 35 to 75 percent of the variability in assemblage condition. The hydro-TMDL method developed herein for non- to moderately impaired Raritan River Basin streams utilizes a “surrogate” approach in place of the traditional “pollutant of concern” approach commonly used for TMDL development. Managers can use the results obtained by using the hydro-TMDL method to offset the effects of impervious-surface runoff and altered streamflow and to implement measures designed to achieve the necessary load reductions for the “pollutant of concern” (that is, percentage deviations of stream-class-specific flow-index values outside the established 25th-to-75th-percentile range). In this case, such deviations could represent all or a subset of the altered flow indices that prevent the stream from meeting designated aquatic-life criteria. This hydro-TMDL uses a reference, or attainment stream approach for developing the TMDL endpoint. That is, either observed or simulated baseline hydrographs were selected as appropriate reference conditions on the basis of results of QR analysis and watershed modeling procedures, respectively. For any stream in the Raritan River Basin evaluated as part of this study, the hydro-TMDL can be expressed as the greatest amount of deviation in flow a stream can exhibit without violating the stream’s designated aquatic-life criteria. Use of this surrogate approach is appropriate because flows that fall outside the established percentile ranges are ultimately a function of many anthropogenic modifications of the landscape, including the amount of stormwater runoff generated from impervious surfaces within a given basin, the presence of manmade structures designed to retain or divert water, the magnitude of ground- and surface-water abstraction, and the presence of water-supply processes implemented to support human needs. In addition, the stream-type-specific flow indices used as the basis for the hydro-TMDL approach are useful for representing the hydrologic conditions of class A and C streams/basins because they incorporate the full spectrum of flow conditions (very low to very high) that occur in the stream system over a long period of time, as well as those flow properties that change as a result of seasonal variation. Ultimately, an estimate of the maximum percentage flow reduction that could be allowed will be needed to address the aquatic-life impairments in many of the study streams in the Raritan River Basin and will be necessary for identifying appropriate target flow conditions for hydro-TMDL implementation. As described in this report, a target flow value equal to the 25th- or 75th-percentile flow rate could be selected as the point useful for setting specific hydrologic targets. This selection, however, is a management decision that could vary depending on the designated use of the stream or other regulatory factors (for example, water-supply protection, trout production, antidegradation policies, or special protection designations). In New Jersey streams where no unambiguous stressors can be identified, State monitoring agencies, such as the NJDEP, could choose to require the implementation of a flow-based TMDL that not only supports designated uses, but meets the regulatory requirements under the Clean Water Act, and represents a balance between water supply intended to meet human needs and the conservation of ecosystem integrity.

New Jersey↗

USGS2007

A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris )

The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an example of the type of results generated, we estimated that the probability of the manatee population falling to less than 250 adults on either the Atlantic or Gulf coasts (from a current statewide population size of near 3300) within 100 years is 8.6%. Complete removal of the watercraft threat alone would reduce this risk to 0.4%; complete removal of the warm-water threat to 4.2%; removal of both threats would reduce the risk to 0.1%. The modeling approach we have taken also allows us to consider partial removal of threats, as well as removal of multiple threats simultaneously. We believe the measure we have proposed (probability of quasi-extinction over y years, with quasi-extinction defined as dropping below a threshold of z on either coast) is a suitable measure of status that integrates a number of the elements that are relevant to interpretation under the ESA (it directly integrates risk of extinction and reduction of range, and indirectly integrates loss of genetic diversity). But the identification of the time frame of interest and the tolerable risk of quasi-extinction are policy decisions, and an ecology-based quasi-extinction threshold has not yet been determined. We have endeavored to provide results over a wide range of these parameters to give decision-makers useful information to assess status. This assessment of threats suggests that watercraft-related mortality is having the greatest impact on manatee population growth and resilience. Elimination of this single threat would greatly reduce the probability of quasi-extinction. Loss of warm-water is also a significant threat, particularly over the long-term. Red tide and entanglement, while noticeable threats, have had less of an impact on the manatee population. The effect of water control structures may have already been largely mitigated. We did not, however, consider an exhaustive list of threats. Other threats (e.g., reduction of food resources due to storms and development) may play a

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Moderate flood level scenarios—Synthetic storm-driven flood-inundation maps for coastal communities in 10 New Jersey counties

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) and the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (NJOEM), created digital flood-inundation maps for approximately 1,430 square miles of the New Jersey coast and tidewaters through 10 coastal counties stretching from Cumberland County through Bergen County, New Jersey. The maps depict extent and depth estimates of coastal flooding corresponding to selected tidal elevations recorded by 25 real-time USGS tide gages located within the study area. The flood-inundation maps can be accessed through the USGS Interagency Flood Risk Management (InFRM) Flood Decision Support Toolbox (FDST). Previously published modeled data were utilized from the coupled ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model. Simulated tropical storm events were selected based on parameters including landfall location or closest approach location, maximum wind speed, central pressure, and radii of winds. Two storm events were selected per tide gage providing two “scenarios” and accompanying inundation-map libraries for each gage. Flood-inundation maps reflect between 9 to 30 stages (elevations) at each tide gage that correspond to areal extents and depths for ADCIRC-SWAN storm time steps extracted from modeled hydrographs at the gage locations. Water-surface elevations from ADCIRC-SWAN node points extending through each tide gage station extent were used to interpolate a water surface. Combining these surfaces with a geographic information system (GIS) topobathymetric digital elevation model (TBDEM) delineated the area flooded by coastal waters at each tide gage elevation. The availability of these maps to visualize potential inundation for selected water levels along with real-time water level data available online from USGS tide gages, coastal impact statements, and forecasted tide elevations from the National Weather Service (NWS) will provide emergency management personnel and residents with a link between numeric and text warning information and images of estimated inundation extents in their community. User selected display of inundation allows early response activities to NWS forecasted water level elevations or mitigation planning by selecting targeted water levels and planning critical pre-flood activities such as building elevations, early traffic pattern changes because of neighborhood building inundation levels, improved understanding about when major road access is affected, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts. A subsequent analysis of several community metrics including total structures, structure density, percent of buildings inundated, and roads and bridges affected by flooding was used to evaluate moderate flooding impacts among the mapped station extents. Initial comparisons are presented to show the variability of these characteristics within each mapped station extent then extended to evaluate impacts from moderate flooding on these same areas. The analysis used simulated inundation layers at the moderate flood stage to investigate the magnitude of inundation on building structures and major roads among the mapped station extents. Experimental equations were developed to begin testing if a mathematical equation could help identify communities that were disproportionately impacted at moderate flood stage. The community analysis of impacts to moderate flooding based on these inundation scenario maps should provide community leaders and local and state planning officials with tools to better visualize and understand how flooding begins to disrupt and damage building structures and major roads as a surrogate for direct increased risk to human life and property.

New Jersey↗

USGS2011

Range-wide assessment of livestock grazing across the sagebrush biome

Domestic livestock grazing occurs in virtually all sagebrush habitats and is a prominent disturbance factor. By affecting habitat condition and trend, grazing influences the resources required by, and thus, the distribution and abundance of sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (for example, sage-grouse Centrocercus spp.). Yet, the risks that livestock grazing may pose to these species and their habitats are not always clear. Although livestock grazing intensity and associated habitat condition may be known in many places at the local level, we have not yet been able to answer questions about use, condition, and trend at the landscape scale or at the range-wide scale for wildlife species. A great deal of information about grazing use, management regimes, and ecological condition exists at the local level (for individual livestock management units) under the oversight of organizations such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). However, the extent, quality, and types of existing data are unknown, which hinders the compilation, mapping, or analysis of these data. Once compiled, these data may be helpful for drawing conclusions about rangeland status, and we may be able to identify relationships between those data and wildlife habitat at the landscape scale. The overall objective of our study was to perform a range-wide assessment of livestock grazing effects (and the relevant supporting data) in sagebrush ecosystems managed by the BLM. Our assessments and analyses focused primarily on local-level management and data collected at the scale of BLM grazing allotments (that is, individual livestock management units). Specific objectives included the following: 1. Identify and refine existing range-wide datasets to be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. 2. Assess the extent, quality, and types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data collected by BLM range-wide (i.e., across allotments, districts and regions). 3. Compile and synthesize recommendations from federal and university rangeland science experts about how BLM might prioritize collection of different types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data. 4. Investigate whether range-wide datasets (Objective 1) could be used in conjunction with remotely sensed imagery to identify across broad scales (a) allotments potentially not meeting BLM Land Health Standards (LHS) and (b) allotments in which unmet standards might be attributable to livestock grazing. Objective 1: We identified four datasets that potentially could be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. First, we obtained the most current spatial data (typically up to 2007, 2008, or 2009) for all BLM allotments and compiled data into a coarse, topologically enforced dataset that delineated grazing allotment boundaries. Second, we obtained LHS evaluation data (as of 2007) for all allotments across all districts and regions; these data included date of most recent evaluation, BLM determinations of whether region-specific standards were met, and whether BLM deemed livestock to have contributed to any unmet standards. Third, we examined grazing records of three types: Actual Use (permittee-reported), Billed Use (BLM-reported), and Permitted Use (legally authorized). Finally, we explored the possibility of using existing Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Ecological Site Description (ESD) data to make up-to-date estimates of production and forage availability on BLM allotments. Objective 2: We investigated the availability of BLM livestock grazing-related monitoring data and the status of LHS across 310 randomly selected allotments in 13 BLM field offices. We found that, relative to other data types, the most commonly available monitoring data were Actual Use numbers (permittee-reported livestock numbers and season-of-use), followed by Photo Point, forage Utilization, and finally, Vegetation Trend measurement data. Data availability and frequency of data collection varied across allotments and field offices. Analysis of the BLM's LHS data indicated 67 percent of allotments analyzed were meeting standards. For those not meeting standards, livestock were considered the causal factor in 45 percent of cases (about 15 percent of all allotments). Objective 3: We sought input from 42 university and federal rangeland science experts about how best to prioritize rangeland monitoring activities associated with ascertaining livestock impacts on vegetation resources. When we presented a hypothetical scenario to these scientists and asked them to prioritize monitoring activities, the most common response was to measure ground and vegetation cover, a variable that in many cases (10 of 13 field offices sampled) BLM had already identified as a monitoring priority. Experts identified several other traditional (for example, photo points) and emerging approaches (for example, high-resolution aerial photography) to monitoring. Objective 4: We used spatial allotment data (described in Objective 1) and remotely sensed vegetation data (sagebrush cover, herbaceous vegetation cover, litter and bare soil) to assess differences in allotment LHS status ("Not met" vs. "Met"; if "Not met" - livestock-caused vs. not). We then developed logistic regression models, using vegetation variables to predict LHS status of BLM allotments in sagebrush steppe habitats in Wyoming and portions of Montana and Colorado. In general, we found that more consistent data collection at the local level might improve suitability of data for broad-scale analyses of livestock impacts. As is, data collection methodologies varied across field offices and States, and we did not find any local-level monitoring data (Actual Use, Utilization, Vegetation Trend) that had been collected consistently enough over time or space for range-wide analyses. Moreover, continued and improved emphasis on monitoring also may aid local management decisions, particularly with respect to effects of livestock grazing. Rangeland science experts identified ground cover as a high monitoring priority for assessing range condition and emphasized the importance of tracking livestock numbers and grazing dates. Ultimately, the most effective monitoring program may entail both increased data collection effort and the integration of alternative monitoring approaches (for example, remote sensing or monitoring teams). In the course of our study, we identified three additional datasets that could potentially be used for range-wide analyses: spatial allotment boundary data for all BLM allotments range-wide, LHS evaluations of BLM allotments, and livestock use data (livestock numbers and grazing dates). It may be possible to use these spatial datasets to help prioritize monitoring activities over the extensive land areas managed by BLM. We present an example of how we used spatial allotment boundary data and LHS data to test whether remotely sensed vegetation characteristics could be used to predict which allotments met or did not meet LHS. This approach may be further improved by the results of current efforts by BLM to test whether more intensive (higher resolution) LHS assessments more accurately describe land health status. Standardized data collection in more ecologically meaningful land units may improve our ability to use local-level data for broad-scale analyses.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2007

A comparison of macroinvertebrate and habitat methods of data collection in the Little Colorado River Watershed, Arizona 2007

The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), use different field methods for collecting macroinvertebrate samples and habitat data for bioassessment purposes. Arizona’s Biocriteria index was developed using a riffle habitat sampling methodology, whereas the EMAP method employs a multi-habitat sampling protocol. There was a need to demonstrate comparability of these different bioassessment methodologies to allow use of the EMAP multi-habitat protocol for both statewide probabilistic assessments for integration of the EMAP data into the national (305b) assessment and for targeted in-state bioassessments for 303d determinations of standards violations and impaired aquatic life conditions. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the two methods yield similar bioassessment results, such that the data could be used interchangeably in water quality assessments. In this Regional EMAP grant funded project, a probabilistic survey of 30 sites in the Little Colorado River basin was conducted in the spring of 2007. Macroinvertebrate and habitat data were collected using both ADEQ and EMAP sampling methods, from adjacent reaches within these stream channels. All analyses indicated that the two macroinvertebrate sampling methods were significantly correlated. ADEQ and EMAP samples were classified into the same scoring categories (meeting, inconclusive, violating the biocriteria standard) 82% of the time. When the ADEQ-IBI was applied to both the ADEQ and EMAP taxa lists, the resulting IBI scores were significantly correlated (r=0.91), even though only 4 of the 7 metrics in the IBI were significantly correlated. The IBI scores from both methods were significantly correlated to the percent of riffle habitat, even though the average percent riffle habitat was only 30% of the stream reach. Multivariate analyses found that the percent riffle was an important attribute for both datasets in classifying IBI scores into assessment categories. Habitat measurements generated from EMAP and ADEQ methods were also significantly correlated; 13 of 16 habitat measures were significantly correlated (p<0.01). The visual-based percentage estimates of percent riffle and pool habitats, vegetative cover and percent canopy cover, and substrate measurements of percent fine substrate and embeddedness were all remarkably similar, given the different field methods used. A multivariate analysis identified substrate and flow conditions, as well as canopy cover as important combinations of habitat attributes affecting both IBI scores. These results indicate that similar habitat measures can be obtained using two different field sampling protocols. In addition, similar combinations of these habitat parameters were important to macroinvertebrate community condition in multivariate analyses of both ADEQ and EMAP datasets. These results indicate the two sampling methods for macroinvertebrates and habitat data were very similar in terms of bioassessment results and stressors. While the bioassessment category was not identical for all sites, overall the assessments were significantly correlated, providing similar bioassessment results for the cold water streams used in this study. The findings of this study indicate that ADEQ can utilize either a riffle-based sampling methodology or a multi-habitat sampling approach in cold water streams as both yield similar results relative to the macroinvertebrate assemblage. These results will allow for use of either macroinvertebrate dataset to determine water quality standards compliance with the ADEQ Indexes of Biological Integrity, for which threshold values were just recently placed into the Arizona Surface Water Quality Standards. While this survey did not include warm water desert streams of Arizona, we would predict that EMAP and ADEQ sampling methodologies would provide similar bioassessment results and would not be significantly different, as we have found that the percent riffle habitat in cold and warm water perennial, wadeable streams is not significantly different. However, a comparison study of sampling methodologies in warm water streams should be conducted to confirm the predicted similarity of bioassessment results. ADEQ will continue to implement a monitoring strategy that includes probabilistic monitoring for a statewide ecological assessment of stream conditions. Conclusions from this study will guide decisions regarding the most appropriate sampling methods for future probabilistic monitoring sample plans.

Arizona↗

USGS1993

Economic analysis of critical habitat designation for the desert tortoise (Mojave population)

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service emergency 1isted the Mojave population of the desert tortoise as endangered on August 4, 1989. The Mojave population formally was listed as threatened on April 2, 1990. The Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended, requires that the economic benefits and costs and other relevant effects of critical habitat designation be considered. The Secretary of the Interior may exclude from designation areas where the costs of designation are greater than the benefits, unless the exclusion would result in extinction of the species. Desert tortoises are threatened by an accumulation of human-and disease-related mortality accompanied by habitat destruction, degradation, and fragmentation. Many desert tortoises are illegally collected for pets, food, and commercial trade. Others are accidentally struck and killed by vehicles on roads and highways or are killed by gunshot or vehicles traveling off-highway. Raven predation on hatchling desert tortoises has increased as raven populations in the desert have risen. An upper respiratory tract disease is suspected to be a major cause of mortality in the western Mojave Desert. This presumably incurable affliction presumably is thought to be spread through the release of infected tortoises into the desert. The Service has proposed designating critical habitat in nine counties within four states. The 12 critical habitat units encompass 6.4 million acres of land, more than 80% federally owned. This region is economically and demographically diverse. Most of the land is sparsely settled and characterized as a hot desert ecosystem. Major industries in the region include entertainment and lodging (primarily in Las Vegas), property development to accommodate the rapid population growth, and services. Millions of rural acres in the region are leased by the federal government for livestock grazing and used for mining. Overall economic benefits to the affected states derived from cattle and sheep grazing in the hot desert areas are minimal and, according to a recent U.S. General Accounting Office study (1991), local economies do not depend on the grazing of public lands for economic survival. The economic analysis describes the economy in 1990, prior to designation, and estimates the effects of designation. The report estimates those incremental effects attributable to critical habitat designation. Impacts attributable to listing the species were not considered in this analysis. Although critical habitat units have been designated in nine counties, two counties are omitted from the economic analysis because of the small proportion of critical habitat acreage they include. Three key activities (cattle grazing, mineral extraction, and off-road vehicle use) were studied in detail. Even if livestock grazing and commercial off-road racing events were eliminated in the proposed critical habitat units, the potential incremental regional economic impacts would be extremely small. The findings in the report do not include the assumption that mining would be eliminated from critical habitat units, but rather that consultation may result in added mitigation and/or relocation of features. Studies show that society will realize benefits from preservation of species and ecosystems. Survey-based studies confirm that benefits exist and are substantial in size, although these benefits often are not measured in traditional economic markets. The total benefit to society of desert tortoise preservation includes several components. Biodiversity in the Mojave and Colorado Deserts will be improved, some recreation values may increase, and gains in intrinsic value will be realized. Critical habitat designation should result in the loss of fewer than 425 total jobs in the seven counties. These include 340 direct ranching jobs and 85 indirect jobs in other industries. This estimated employment loss will not be permanent for most laborers, it is anticipated that over 85% will be reemployed within two years. The economic consequences of designating critical habitat includes reduced ranch profits in the seven counties of $4,470,000 [the estimated permanent decrease in ranch profits, capitalized at 10% for a 50-year period, in accordance with the methodology of River, et al. (1978)]. Second, the federal government will compensate allottees with a one-time payment estimated at $376,000 for the loss of permanent improvements to grazing lands (pending BLM administrative decisions of partially affected allotments). Finally, discontinuing grazing fees will result in an annual reduction of $170,000 in collected grazing fees that are divided among range improvements, the Federal Treasury, and local governments.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2003

Vulnerability of ground water to contamination, northern Bexar County, Texas

The Trinity aquifer, composed of Lower Cretaceous carbonate rocks, largely controls the ground-water hydrology in the study area of northern Bexar County, Texas. Discharge from the Trinity aquifer recharges the downgradient, hydraulically connected Edwards aquifer one of the most permeable and productive aquifers in the Nation and the sole source of water for more than a million people in south-central Texas. The unconfined, karstic outcrop of the Edwards aquifer makes it particularly vulnerable to contamination resulting from urbanization that is spreading rapidly northward across an "environmentally sensitive" recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer and its upgradient "catchment area," composed mostly of the less permeable Trinity aquifer. A better understanding of the Trinity aquifer is needed to evaluate water-management decisions affecting the quality of water in both the Trinity and Edwards aquifers. A study was made, therefore, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System to assess northern Bexar County's vulnerability to ground-water contamination. The vulnerability of ground water to contamination in this area varies with the effects of five categories of natural features (hydrogeologic units, faults, caves and (or) sinkholes, slopes, and soils) that occur on the outcrop and in the shallow subcrop of the Glen Rose Limestone. Where faults affect the rates of recharge or discharge or the patterns of ground-water flow in the Glen Rose Limestone, they likewise affect the risk of water-quality degradation. Caves and sinkholes generally increase the vulnerability of ground water to contamination, especially where their occurrences are concentrated. The slope of land surface can affect the vulnerability of ground water by controlling where and how long a potential contaminant remains on the surface. Disregarding the exception of steep slopes which are assumed to have no soil cover the greater the slope, the less the risk of ground-water contamination. Because most soils in the study area are uniformly thin, they have only minimal effect on the vulnerability of ground water to contamination. The results of hydrogeologic mapping during the present study divide the outcrop of the Glen Rose Limestone into five mappable intervals, labeled (youngest to oldest) A through E. Of these intervals, only the middle (C) and the lowermost (E) generally provide appreciable permeability. The vulnerability assessment provided herein was determined by combining the presumed effects of selected natural features (with individual vulnerability ratings ranging from 0 through 35) using a grid-based, multilayer system of digital datasets and geographic information system analysis. The resulting vulnerability map comprises composite vulnerability ratings that range from 26 through 104. The relatively less vulnerable areas those containing no faults, sinkholes, or caves occupy about 92 percent of the study area. The most vulnerable areas are those containing both a fault and one or more caves. The distribution of the most vulnerable areas which trend from southwest to northeast, roughly parallel to the Balcones fault zone occur mainly where faults intersect caves.

Texas↗

USGS2007

Effects of wastewater disinfection on waterborne bacteria and viruses

Wastewater disinfection is practiced with the goal of reducing risks of human exposure to pathogenic microorganisms. In most circumstances, the efficacy of a wastewater disinfection process is regulated and monitored based on measurements of the responses of indicator bacteria. However, inactivation of indicator bacteria does not guarantee an acceptable degree of inactivation among other waterborne microorganisms (e.g., microbial pathogens). Undisinfected effluent samples from several municipal wastewater treatment facilities were collected for analysis. Facilities were selected to provide a broad spectrum of effluent quality, particularly as related to nitrogenous compounds. Samples were subjected to bench-scale chlorination and dechlorination and UV irradiation under conditions that allowed compliance with relevant discharge regulations and such that disinfectant exposures could be accurately quantified. Disinfected samples were subjected to a battery of assays to assess the immediate and long-term effects of wastewater disinfection on waterborne bacteria and viruses. In general, (viable) bacterial populations showed an immediate decline as a result of disinfectant exposure; however, incubation of disinfected samples under conditions that were designed to mimic the conditions in a receiving stream resulted in substantial recovery of the total bacterial community. The bacterial groups that are commonly used as indicators do not provide an accurate representation of the response of the bacterial community to disinfectant exposure and subsequent recovery in the environment. UV irradiation and chlorination/dechlorination both accomplished measurable inactivation of indigenous phage; however, the extent of inactivation was fairly modest under the conditions of disinfection used in this study. UV irradiation was consistently more effective as a virucide than chlorination/dechlorination under the conditions of application, based on measurements of virus (phage) diversity and concentration. Taken together, and when considered in conjunction with previously published research, the results of these experiments illustrate several important limitations of common disinfection processes as applied in the treatment of municipal wastewaters. In general, it is not clear that conventional disinfection processes, as commonly implemented, are effective for control of the risks of disease transmission, particularly those associated with viral pathogens. Microbial quality in receiving streams may not be substantially improved by the application of these disinfection processes; under some circumstances, an argument can be made that disinfection may actually yield a decrease in effluent and receiving water quality. Decisions regarding the need for effluent disinfection must account for site-specific characteristics, but it is not clear that disinfection of municipal wastewater effluents is necessary or beneficial for all facilities. When direct human contact or ingestion of municipal wastewater effluents is likely, disinfection may be necessary. Under these circumstances, UV irradiation appears to be superior to chlorination in terms of microbial quality and chemistry and toxicology. This advantage is particularly evident in effluents that contain appreciable quantities of ammonia-nitrogen or organic nitrogen.

Water Environment Research↗

USGS2023

Potentiometric surface map of the Southern High Plains aquifer in the Cannon Air Force Base area, Curry County, New Mexico, 2020

Declining water levels and the potential impact on water resources on and around Cannon Air Force Base (AFB), New Mexico, has necessitated an up-to-date review of the potentiometric surface to evaluate the availability of water resources for future use. Analysis of groundwater-flow directions and hydraulic gradients can provide an understanding of depletion by heavy groundwater pumping and recharge through playa lakes, as well as the relationship between the groundwater levels and underlying geology. The objectives of this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force Civil Engineer Center, are to assist Cannon AFB in understanding and interpreting current and local hydrologic conditions and to evaluate groundwater-level change from 2015 to 2020 using new and historical data. A groundwater potentiometric surface contour map was constructed to better understand the Southern High Plains aquifer around Cannon AFB and to show the altitude of the water-table surface and groundwater-flow patterns. Four hydrographs were created from periodic measurements of groundwater levels in wells on and around Cannon AFB to provide information about historical groundwater-level changes and visualize trends from the water-level records. The long-term trend present in all four hydrographs is a steady decline in groundwater levels, with some areas declining faster than others. The groundwater-level change map presented in this study provides a visual representation of the change in groundwater level from the winter 2015 to winter 2020 measuring events. Results show that among corresponding wells measured in 2015 and 2020, 50.7 percent indicated a decline in water levels, 29.9 percent indicated neutral water levels, and 19.4 percent indicated a rise in water levels. The region to the north of the groundwater trough on Cannon AFB contained most of the groundwater-level rises, whereas the regions located near the trough and just west of Clovis, N. Mex., contained most of the declines. These results suggest that continued monitoring of declining groundwater levels in the area would provide valuable decision-support information for assessing the sustainability of this water resource.

New Mexico↗

USGS2013

Selenium in ecosystems within the mountaintop coal mining and valley-fill region of southern West Virginia-assessment and ecosystem-scale modeling

Coal and associated waste rock are among environmental selenium (Se) sources that have the potential to affect reproduction in fish and aquatic birds. Ecosystems of southern West Virginia that are affected by drainage from mountaintop coal mines and valleys filled with waste rock in the Coal, Gauley, and Lower Guyandotte watersheds were assessed during 2010 and 2011. Sampling data from earlier studies in these watersheds (for example, Upper Mud River Reservoir) and other mining-affected watersheds also are included to assess additional hydrologic settings and food webs for comparison. Basin schematics give a comprehensive view of sampled species and Se concentration data specific to location and date. Food-web diagrams document the progression of Se trophic transfer across suspended particulate material, invertebrates, and fish for each site to serve as the basis for developing an ecosystem-scale model to predict Se exposure within the hydrologic conditions and food webs of southern West Virginia. This approach integrates a site-specific predator’s dietary exposure pathway into modeling to ensure an adequate link to Se toxicity and, thus, to species vulnerability. Site-specific fish abundance and richness data in streams documented various species of chub, shiner, dace, darters, bass, minnow, sunfish, sucker, catfish, and central stoneroller (Campostoma anomalum), mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdii), and least brook lamprey (Lampetra aepyptera). However, Se assessment species for streams, and hence, model species for streams, were limited to creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and central stoneroller. Both of these species of fish are generally considered to have a high tolerance for environmental stress based on traditional comparative fish community assessment, with creek chub being present at all sites. Aquatic insects (mayfly, caddisfly, stonefly, dobsonfly, chironomid) were the main invertebrates sampled in streams. Collection of suspended particulate material acted as an integrator of organic-rich, fine-grained biomass present in streams. The base-case food web modeled for streams was suspended particulate material to aquatic insect to creek chub, with comparative modeling of a direct particulate-to-stoneroller food web. Model species for a reservoir setting were based on an earlier study of bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus), green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Several reservoir food webs were considered based on a variety of invertebrates (insect, snail, clam). For stream and reservoir settings, predicted Se concentrations in exposure scenarios showed a high degree of correlation (r 2 = 0.91 for invertebrates and 0.75 for fish) with field observations of Se concentrations when modeling was initiated from suspended-particulate-material Se concentrations and model transfer parameters defined previously in the literature were used. These strong correlations validate the derived site-specific model and establish sufficient confidence that the predictions from the developed model can be quantitatively applied to the ecosystems in southern West Virginia. An application of modeling used a metric describing the partitioning of Se between particulate material and dissolved phases (K d ) to allow determination of a dissolved Se concentration that would be necessary to attain a site-specific Se fish body burden. The operationally defined K d quantifies the complex process of transformation at the base of a food web on a site-specific basis. The magnitude of this metric is known to vary with such factors as Se speciation, particulate-material type, and hydrology. This application (1) ties dissolved Se concentrations to fish tissue concentrations; (2) allows consideration of different choices for intervening site-specific exposure steps that set Se bioaccumulation, partitioning, and bioavailability; and (3) generates implications for management decisions that define protection through different regulatory pathways and guidelines. The range of model outcomes accounts for critical sources of variability and establishes whether site and food-web characterization were adequate to represent the dynamics of the system with certainty. This is especially true in terms of particulate-material phases at the base of the food web and utilization of K d in different hydrologic settings. For streams, a range of field-derived K d ds were applied to food-web exposure scenarios within a framework of locational and hydrologic variables (area of stream basin; stream gradient and discharge) that may affect the magnitude of K d . Overlaying even a coarse temporal scale that acknowledges variability in stream dissolved Se and Se speciation, such as through seasonal derivation of K d , can substantially narrow model uncertainty. Modeling that constrains the place and time of greatest ecosystem Se sensitivity within a specified food web gives insight into Se risk and identifies controlling management alternatives within a watershed or stream basin. If there is a range of hydrologic settings, specificity is needed to establish a hierarchy of in-stream and off-stream habitats for a watershed approach that takes into account Se-enriched water moving through different K d and food web environments. If there is a range of predator vulnerabilities (measured as a combination of food-web Se biodynamics and response in Se toxicity tests) within the site-specific community of fish species to be protected, then choice of fish species is critical to protection because it determines the food web and, hence, the magnitude of biotransfer through which Se is modeled. Whether creek chub is representative of the vulnerability to Se of all fish species encountered within the study-site ecosystems will require additional species-specific data and analysis. A range of site-specific scenarios illustrated here set model outcomes, but the final quantitative evaluation of alternatives and their implications will be those generated through choices and guidance formulated by state and other agencies in their decisionmaking processes. Proposed additions and refinements to the ecosystem-scale site-specific approach developed here include consideration of: measurement of temporally matched pairs of dissolved and suspended-particulate-material Se concentrations across a broader range of stream sites to expand the stream K d database and to test the representativeness of a suspended-particulate-material sample within a stream; characterization of different phases of particulate material across seasons to better define the base of the food web and connect to invertebrate feeding; refinement of model assumptions concerning dietary preferences and composition for fish to develop additional trophic transfer factors (TTFs) (for example, calculation of TTFinvertebrate composite for mixed diets); expansion of modeling of fish species and their food webs to include Se-vulnerable species; temporal characterization of a predator’s life cycle and habitat use as additional model layers to integrate with Se biodynamics in streams; investigation of the effect of stream gradient on K d based on a finer scale than presented here in terms of such variables as residence time, watershed dilution, and physical habitat attributes (for example, amount of ponding versus run or riffle within a stream); and linkage to discharge through use of stream gaging to record variability and enable model organization within water-year types and discharge seasons. Investigating the presence and variability of prey and predator species in demographically open systems such as streams also is key to model outcomes given the overall environmental stressors (for example, general landscape change, food-web disruption, recolonization potential) imposed on the composition of biological communities in coal mining and valley-fill affected watersheds

West Virginia↗

USGS2025

Estimated annual abundance of migratory Peale's Peregrine Falcons in coastal Washington, USA

Following the recovery of Peregrine Falcons ( Falco peregrinus ), the US Fish and Wildlife Service began a process to allow “take” (capture) of wild peregrines for falconry in the United States. Recently, that effort involved generating updated estimates of the collective abundance of the three North American peregrine subspecies: F. p. anatum , F. p. tundrius , and F. p. pealei (Peale's Peregrine Falcon). Because of the more limited distribution of F. p. pealei , we conducted an analysis specific to its geographic range. We analyzed data from a long-term banding and resighting program on three beaches on the southern coast of Washington, USA, to estimate the annual abundance of migrating and overwintering F. p. pealei , using the capture histories of 250 Peregrine Falcons, nearly all of which were captured during 1277 vehicle surveys between 1995 and 2024. Because we studied an open population of migratory individuals, we used a zero-inflated Poisson log-normal mark-resight model to estimate annual abundance. For the analyses, we partitioned our survey data into sighting periods, each of which extended from 1 September of one year to 31 May of the next. We anticipated that first-year F. p. pealei would be identified for falconry take, and our annual abundance estimates for first-year birds of this subspecies ranged from a high of 24.8 ± 6.1 (SE) individuals in the 2014–2015 sighting period to a low of 1.9 ± 1.4 individuals in the 2023–2024 sighting period. Peregrine Falcon abundance varied annually and appeared to decline during the last two sighting periods. Our sighting rate of marked peregrines was negatively associated with Bald Eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) encounter rate. There was a lesser relationship to human activity, and we suspect the change in sighting rate was a behavioral response by Peregrine Falcons to the threat of kleptoparasitism by Bald Eagles. We currently lack comprehensive information about the natal origin of the individual peregrines in our study area, which prevented us from assessing the degree to which falconry take from the pool of falcons migrating to or through Washington might potentially impact local or regional abundances. Although a better understanding of natal origins is needed, our data add clarity to the migration and overwinter abundance of F. p. pealei on the Washington coast and may inform decisions about the take of this subspecies for falconry.

Washington↗

USGS2003

Effectiveness of the New Hampshire stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow information

The stream-gaging network in New Hampshire was analyzed for its effectiveness in providing regional information on peak-flood flow, mean-flow, and low-flow frequency. The data available for analysis were from stream-gaging stations in New Hampshire and selected stations in adjacent States. The principles of generalized-least-squares regression analysis were applied to develop regional regression equations that relate streamflow-frequency characteristics to watershed characteristics. Regression equations were developed for (1) the instantaneous peak flow with a 100-year recurrence interval, (2) the mean-annual flow, and (3) the 7-day, 10-year low flow. Active and discontinued stream-gaging stations with 10 or more years of flow data were used to develop the regression equations. Each stream-gaging station in the network was evaluated and ranked on the basis of how much the data from that station contributed to the cost-weighted sampling-error component of the regression equation. The potential effect of data from proposed and new stream-gaging stations on the sampling error also was evaluated. The stream-gaging network was evaluated for conditions in water year 2000 and for estimated conditions under various network strategies if an additional 5 years and 20 years of streamflow data were collected. The effectiveness of the stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow information could be improved for all three flow characteristics with the collection of additional flow data, both temporally and spatially. With additional years of data collection, the greatest reduction in the average sampling error of the regional regression equations was found for the peak- and low-flow characteristics. In general, additional data collection at stream-gaging stations with unregulated flow, relatively short-term record (less than 20 years), and drainage areas smaller than 45 square miles contributed the largest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling error of the regional estimating equations. The results of the network analyses can be used to prioritize the continued operation of active stations, the reactivation of discontinued stations, or the activation of new stations to maximize the regional information content provided by the stream-gaging network. Final decisions regarding altering the New Hampshire stream-gaging network would require the consideration of the many uses of the streamflow data serving local, State, and Federal interests.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

A protocol for assessing bias and robustness of social network metrics using GPS based radio-telemetry data

Background Social network analysis of animal societies allows scientists to test hypotheses about social evolution, behaviour, and dynamic processes. However, the accuracy of estimated metrics depends on data characteristics like sample proportion, sample size, and frequency. A protocol is urgently needed to assess for bias and robustness of social network metrics estimated for the animal populations especially when a limited number of individuals are monitored. Methods We used GPS telemetry datasets of five ungulate species to combine known social network approaches with novel ones into a comprehensive five-step protocol. To quantify the bias and uncertainty in the network metrics obtained from a partial population, we presented novel statistical methods which are particularly suited for autocorrelated data, such as telemetry relocations. The protocol was validated using a sixth species, the fallow deer, with a known population size where ⇠ 85% of the individuals have been directly monitored. Results Through the protocol, we demonstrated how pre-network data permu tations allow researchers to assess non-random aspects of interactions within a population. The protocol assesses bias in global network metrics, obtains confidence intervals, and quantifies uncertainty of global and node-level network metrics based on the number of nodes in the network. We found that global network metrics like density remained robust even with a lowered sample size, while local network metrics like eigenvector centrality were unreliable for four of the species. The fallow deer network showed low uncertainty and bias even at lower sampling proportions, indicating the importance of a thoroughly sampled population while demonstrating the accuracy of our evaluation methods for smaller samples. Conclusions The protocol allows researchers to analyse GPS-based radio telemetry or other data to determine the reliability of social network metrics. The estimates enable the statistical comparison of networks under di↵erent conditions, such as analysing daily and seasonal changes in the density of a network. The methods can also guide methodological decisions in animal social network research, such as sampling design and allow more accurate ecological inferences from the available data. The R package aniSNA enables researchers to implement this workflow on their dataset, generating reliable inferences and guiding methodological decisions

Article↗

USGS2010

Methods for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma

Flow statistics can be used to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-supply permitting, flow regulation, and other water rights issues. Flow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no flow data are available to compute the statistics. Methods are presented in this report for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma. Flow statistics included the (1) annual (period of record), (2) seasonal (summer-autumn and winter-spring), and (3) 12 monthly duration statistics, including the 20th, 50th, 80th, 90th, and 95th percentile flow exceedances, and the annual mean-flow (mean of daily flows for the period of record). Flow statistics were calculated from daily streamflow information collected from 235 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Oklahoma and areas in adjacent states. A drainage-area ratio method is the preferred method for estimating flow statistics at an ungaged location that is on a stream near a gage. The method generally is reliable only if the drainage-area ratio of the two sites is between 0.5 and 1.5. Regression equations that relate flow statistics to drainage-basin characteristics were developed for the purpose of estimating selected flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams that are not near gaging stations on the same stream. Regression equations were developed from flow statistics and drainage-basin characteristics for 113 unregulated gaging stations. Separate regression equations were developed by using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in regions with similar drainage-basin characteristics. These equations can increase the accuracy of regression equations used for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics at ungaged stream locations in Oklahoma. Streamflow-gaging stations were grouped by selected drainage-basin characteristics by using a k-means cluster analysis. Three regions were identified for Oklahoma on the basis of the clustering of gaging stations and a manual delineation of distinguishable hydrologic and geologic boundaries: Region 1 (western Oklahoma excluding the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles), Region 2 (north- and south-central Oklahoma), and Region 3 (eastern and central Oklahoma). A total of 228 regression equations (225 flow-duration regressions and three annual mean-flow regressions) were developed using ordinary least-squares and left-censored (Tobit) multiple-regression techniques. These equations can be used to estimate 75 flow-duration statistics and annual mean-flow for ungaged streams in the three regions. Drainage-basin characteristics that were statistically significant independent variables in the regression analyses were (1) contributing drainage area; (2) station elevation; (3) mean drainage-basin elevation; (4) channel slope; (5) percentage of forested canopy; (6) mean drainage-basin hillslope; (7) soil permeability; and (8) mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation. The accuracy of flow-duration regression equations generally decreased from high-flow exceedance (low-exceedance probability) to low-flow exceedance (high-exceedance probability) . This decrease may have happened because a greater uncertainty exists for low-flow estimates and low-flow is largely affected by localized geology that was not quantified by the drainage-basin characteristics selected. The standard errors of estimate of regression equations for Region 1 (western Oklahoma) were substantially larger than those standard errors for other regions, especially for low-flow exceedances. These errors may be a result of greater variability in low flow because of increased irrigation activities in this region. Regression equations may not be reliable for sites where the drainage-basin characteristics are outside the range of values of independent vari

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1974

Environmental impact analysis; the example of the proposed Trans-Alaska Pipeline

The environmental impact analysis made as required by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 for the proposed trans-Alaska pipeline included consideration of the (1) technologically complex and geographically extensive proposed project, (2) extremely different physical environments across Alaska along the proposed route and elsewhere in Alaska and in Canada along alternative routes, (3) socioeconomic environment of the State of Alaska, and (4) a wide variety of alternatives. The analysis was designed specifically to fit the project and environment that would be affected. The environment was divided into two general parts--natural physical systems and superposed socioeconomic systems--and those parts were further divided into discipline-oriented systems or components that were studied and analyzed by scientists of the appropriate discipline. Particular attention was given to potential feedback loops in the impact network and to linkages between the project's impacting effects and the environment. The results of the analysis as reported in the final environmental impact statement were that both unavoidable and threatened environmental impacts would result from construction, operation, and maintenance of the proposed pipeline system and the developments related to it. The principal unavoidable effects would be (1) disturbances of terrain, fish and wildlife habitat, and human environs, (2) the results of the discharge of effluent from the tanker-ballast-treatment facility into Port Valdez and of some indeterminate amount of oil released into the ocean from tank-cleaning operations at sea, and (3) the results associated with increased human pressures of all kinds on the environment. Other unavoidable effects would be those related to increase of State and Native Corporation revenues, accelerated cultural change of the Native population, and extraction of the oil and gas resource. The main threatened environmental effects would all be related to unintentional oil loss from the pipeline, from tankers, or in the oil field. Oil losses from the pipeline could be caused by direct or indirect effects of earthquakes, destructive sea waves, slope failure caused by natural or artificial processes, thaw-plug instability (in permafrost), differential settlement of permafrost terrain, and bed scour and bank erosion at stream crossings. Oil loss from tankers could be caused by accidents during transfer operations at Valdez and at destination ports and by casualties involving tankers and other ships. Comparison of alternative routes and transportation systems and of their environmental impacts provided information which indicates to the author that one corridor containing both oil and gas pipelines would have less environmental impact than would separate corridors. Considering also the threat to the marine environment that any tanker system would impose and the threat that zones of high earthquake frequency and magnitude would impose on pipelines, it is apparent to the author that environmental impact and cost would be least for a single-corridor on-land route that avoided earthquake zones. The alternative trans-Alaska-Canada routes would meet these criteria. The decisions of the U.S. Department of the Interior, the U.S. Congress, and the President of the United States in favor of the proposed trans-Alaska pipeline system indicate the relative weight given by the decision makers in balancing the importance of potential environmental consequences against the advantages to be derived from rapid resource development.

Circular↗

USGS2016

Sediment load and distribution in the lower Skagit River, Skagit County, Washington

The Skagit River delivers about 40 percent of all fluvial sediment that enters Puget Sound, influencing flood hazards in the Skagit lowlands, critically important estuarine habitat in the delta, and some of the most diverse and productive agriculture in western Washington. A total of 175 measurements of suspended-sediment load, made routinely from 1974 to 1993, and sporadically from 2006 to 2009, were used to develop and evaluate regression models of sediment transport (also known as “sediment-rating curves”) for estimating suspended-sediment load as a function of river discharge. Using a flow-range model and 75 years of daily discharge record (acquired from 1941 to 2015), the mean annual suspended-sediment load for the Skagit River near Mount Vernon, Washington, was estimated to be 2.5 teragrams (Tg, where 1 Tg = 1 million metric tons). The seasonal model indicates that 74 percent of the total annual suspended‑sediment load is delivered to Puget Sound during the winter storm season (from October through March), but also indicates that discharge is a poor surrogate for suspended‑sediment concentration (SSC) during the summer low-flow season. Sediment-rating curves developed for different time periods revealed that the regression model slope of the SSC-discharge relation increased 66 percent between the periods of 1974–76 and 2006–09 when suspended-sediment samples were collected, implying that changes in sediment supply, channel hydraulics, and (or) basin hydrology occurred between the two time intervals. In the relatively wet water year 2007 (October 1, 2006, through September 30, 2007), an automated sampler was used to collect daily samples of suspended sediment from which an annual load of 4.5 Tg was calculated, dominated by a single large flood event that contributed 1.8 Tg, or 40 percent of the total. In comparison, the annual load calculated for water year 2007 using the preferred flow-range model was 4.8 Tg (+6.7 percent), in close agreement with the measured value. Particle size affects sediment transport, fate and distribution across watersheds, and therefore is important for predicting how coastal environments, particularly deltas and beaches, will respond to changes in climate and sea-level. Particle-size analysis of winter storm samples indicated that about one-half of the suspended-sediment load consisted of fines (that is, silt- and clay-sized particles smaller than 0.0625 mm in diameter), and the remainder consisted of mostly fine- to medium-sized sand (0.0625–0.5 mm), whereas bedload during winter storm flows (about 1–3 percent of total sediment load) was predominantly composed of medium to coarse sand (0.25–1 mm). A continuous turbidity record from the Anacortes Water Treatment Plant (water years 1999–2013), used as a surrogate for the concentration of fines ( R 2 = 0.93, p = 4.2E-10, n = 17), confirms that about one-half of the mean annual suspended-sediment load is composed of fines. The distribution of flow through the delta distributaries (that is, the channels into which the main stem splits as it approaches the delta) is dynamic, with twice as much flow through the North Fork of the Skagit River relative to the South Fork during low-flow conditions, and close to equal flows in the two channels during high-flow conditions. Turbidity, monitored at several locations in the lower river in spring 2009, was essentially uniform among sites, indicating that fines are well mixed in the lower Skagit River system (defined as the Skagit River and all its distributaries downstream of the Mount Vernon streamgage). A strong relation ( R 2 = 0.95, p = 3.2E-14, n = 21; linear regression) between the concentration of fines and turbidity measured at various locations in summer 2009 indicates that turbidity is an effective surrogate for the concentration of fines, independent of location in the river, under naturally well-mixed fluvial conditions. This relation is especially useful for monitoring suspended sediment in western Washington rivers that are seasonally dominated by glacier meltwater because glacial melting typically produces suspended-sediment concentrations that are not well correlated with discharge. These results provide a comprehensive set of tools to estimate sediment delivery and delta responses of interest to scientists and resource managers including decision-makers examining options for flood hazard mitigation, estuary restoration, and climate change adaptation.

Washington↗