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USGS2024

The potential of remote sensing for improved infectious disease ecology research and practice

Outbreaks of Covid-19 in humans, Dutch elm disease in forests, and highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds and poultry highlight the disruptive impacts of emerging infectious diseases on public health, ecosystems, and economies. Infectious disease dynamics often depend on environmental conditions that drive occurrence, transmission, and outbreaks. Remote sensing can contribute to infectious disease research and management by providing standardized environmental data across broad spatial and temporal extents, often at no cost to the user. Here, we 1) conduct a systematic review of primary literature to quantify current uses of remote sensing in disease ecology and 2) synthesize qualitative information to identify opportunities for further integration of remote sensing into disease ecology. We identify that modern advances in airborne remote sensing are promoting early detection of forest pathogens and that satellite data is contributing to the study of geographically widespread human diseases. We discuss opportunities for increased use of data products that characterize vegetation, surface water, and soil; provide data at high spatio-temporal and spectral resolutions; and quantify uncertainty in measurements. Additionally, combining remote sensing with animal movement telemetry can provide novel insights into wildlife disease. Integrating these opportunities will advance research and management of infectious diseases.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2016

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye ( Sander vitreus ) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989–2014) and future (2040–2064 and 2065–2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33–75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27–60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2009

Presettlement and modern disturbance regimes in coast redwood forests: Implications for the conservation of old-growth stands

Coast redwood ( Sequoia sempervirens ), a western North American conifer of ancient lineage, has a paradoxical combination of late-successional characteristics and strong adaptations to disturbance. Despite its shade tolerance and heavy dominance of the canopy on many sites, redwood saplings are uncommon in upland old-growth stands. Information needed to ensure the conservation of old-growth redwood forests has been limited. In this review paper, we integrate evidence on redwood biology with data on the historic and modern disturbance regimes to help clarify the degree to which key attributes of redwood forests may have been dependent upon periodic disturbance. Available evidence suggests that episodes of fire, flooding, and slope failure prior to European settlement were frequent but predominantly of low to moderate severity and extent, resulting in broadly uneven-aged forests. The majority of fires prior to European settlement were apparently of human origin. Frequency and severity of the major disturbance agents have been radically changed in modern times. Fires have been largely excluded, and flooding has been altered in ways that have often been detrimental to old-growth redwoods on alluvial terraces. However, because of the apparent anthropogenic origin of most presettlement fires, the long-term evolutionary role of fire for coast redwood is ecologically ambiguous. With fire exclusion, redwood possibly could be displaced to some extent on upland sites by increasing abundance of fire-sensitive competitors. Alternatively, redwood may be able to maintain dominance by vegetative sprouting and new seedling establishment on root-wad mounds, fallen logs, and on soil exposed by slope failure. Future research priorities are suggested that will help resolve some of the current ambiguities.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2015

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust decisions.

Florida↗
USGS2016

South Polar Skua breeding populations in the Ross Sea assessed from demonstrated relationship with Adélie Penguin numbers

In the Ross Sea region, most South Polar Skuas ( Stercorarius maccormicki ) nest near Adélie Penguin ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) colonies, preying and scavenging on fish, penguins, and other carrion. To derive a relationship to predict skua numbers from better-quantified penguin numbers, we used distance sampling to estimate breeding skua numbers within 1000 m of 5 penguin nesting locations (Cape Crozier, Cape Royds, and 3 Cape Bird locations) on Ross Island in 3 consecutive years. Estimated numbers of skua breeding pairs were highest at Cape Crozier (270,000 penguin pairs; 1099 and 1347 skua pairs in 2 respective years) and lowest at Cape Royds (3000 penguin pairs; 45 skua pairs). The log–log linear relationship ( R 2 = 0.98) between pairs of skuas and penguins was highly significant, and most historical estimates of skua and penguin numbers in the Ross Sea were within 95 % prediction intervals of the regression. Applying our regression model to current Adélie Penguin colony sizes at 23 western Ross Sea locations predicted that 4635 pairs of skuas now breed within 1000 m of penguin colonies in the Ross Island metapopulation (including Beaufort Island) and northern Victoria Land. We estimate, using published skua estimates for elsewhere in Antarctica, that the Ross Sea South Polar Skua population comprises ~50 % of the world total, although this may be an overestimate because of incomplete data elsewhere. To improve predictions and enable measurement of future skua population change, we recommend additional South Polar Skua surveys using consistent distance-sampling methods at penguin colonies of a range of sizes.

Polar Biology↗
USGS2016

Sediment loads and transport at constructed chutes along the Missouri River - Upper Hamburg Chute near Nebraska City, Nebraska, and Kansas Chute near Peru, Nebraska

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, monitored suspended sediment within constructed Missouri River chutes during March through October 2012. Chutes were constructed at selected river bends by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help mitigate aquatic habitat lost through the creation and maintenance of the navigation channel on the Missouri River. The restoration and development of chutes is one method for creating shallow-water habitat within the Missouri River to meet requirements established by the amended 2000 Biological Opinion. Understanding geomorphic channel-evolution processes and sediment transport is important for the design of chutes, monitoring and maintenance of existing chutes, and characterizing the habitat that the chutes provide. This report describes the methods used to monitor suspended sediment at two Missouri River chutes and presents the results of the data analysis to help understand the suspended-sediment characteristics of each chute and the effect the chutes have on the Missouri River. Upper Hamburg chute, near Nebraska City, Nebraska, and Kansas chute, near Peru, Nebraska, were selected for monitoring. At each study site, monthly discrete samples were collected from April through October in the Missouri River main-channel transects upstream from the chute inlet, downstream from the chute outlet, at the outlet (downstream transect) of both chutes, and at the inlet (upstream transect) of Kansas chute. In addition, grab samples from all chute sampling locations were collected using autosamplers. Suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and grain-size metrics were determined for all samples (discrete and grab). Continuous water-quality monitors recorded turbidity and water temperature at 15-minute intervals at the three chute sampling locations. Two acoustic Doppler velocimeters, one within each chute, measured water depth and current velocities continuously. The depth and velocity data were used to estimate streamflow within each chute. The sampling design was developed to understand the suspended-sediment differences within each chute and between the chute and the Missouri River main channel during discrete sampling. The sampling design also allowed for site-specific surrogate relations between SSC and turbidity to be developed, which could be used to compute real-time estimates of SSC and sediment loads within the chutes. Real-time estimates of SSC and sediment loads enable a better understanding of sediment transport within the chutes during times when physical samples are not collected, including periods of high flow. High flows during the summer of 2011 resulted in substantial alterations to both studied chutes; therefore, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers repaired and modified both chutes during 2012. These unforeseen repairs and modifications within the chutes added uncertainty to the analysis because concentrations were altered by construction equipment and flow alteration. Daily suspended-sediment and suspended-silt loads were estimated based on surrogate relations with turbidity. A linear regression was used to estimate equal-width increment (EWI)-equivalent SSC from autosampler SSC before using the model-calibration dataset to determine the best-fit model for prediction of SSC from the turbidity and, in some cases, discharge. Correlation between suspended-sand concentration ( SSandC ) in EWI samples and concurrent samples collected by an autosampler was low; therefore, SSandC was excluded from development of surrogate relations because a large part of the calibration dataset was from autosamples. Instead, SSandC was estimated as SSC minus suspended-silt-clay concentration ( SSiltC ). At all sites, the best-fit models included the base-10 logarithm of concentration and turbidity, and at Kansas chute upstream, the base-10 logarithm of streamflow was also included in the best-fit models. These surrogate models were used to estimate continuous time series of SSC and SSiltC . Estimated concentrations of suspended sediment were used to estimate instantaneous and daily loads for total suspended sediment, suspended silt-clay, and suspended sand. Estimated daily suspended-sediment loads were not significantly different between upstream and downstream transects within the Kansas chute, and most individual daily loads within the chute were not significantly different between upstream and downstream transects when evaluated using overlap in daily 95-percent confidence intervals. The comparison of daily load values for upstream and downstream chute transects, as estimated from turbidity-based surrogate models for Kansas chute, documents the daily dynamic nature of sediment transport within the chute with a temporal resolution that is not practical with discrete suspended-sediment sampling alone. Comparisons of concentrations and loads from EWI samples collected from different transects within a study site resulted in few significant differences, but comparisons are limited by small sample sizes and large within-transect variability. When comparing the Missouri River upstream transect to the chute inlet transect, similar results were determined in 2012 as were determined in 2008—the chute inlet affected the amount of sediment entering the chute from the main channel. In addition, the Kansas chute is potentially affecting the sediment concentration within the Missouri River main channel, but small sample size and construction activities within the chute limit the ability to fully understand either the effect of the chute in 2012 or the effect of the chute on the main channel during a year without construction. Finally, some differences in SSC were detected between the Missouri River upstream transects and the chute downstream transects; however, the effect of the chutes on the Missouri River main-channel sediment transport was difficult to isolate because of construction activities and sampling variability.

Nebraska↗
USGS2009

Simulation of streamflow using a multidimensional flow model for white sturgeon habitat, Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho – Supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5230

During 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed, calibrated, and validated a multidimensional flow model for simulating streamflow in the white sturgeon spawning habitat of the Kootenai River in Idaho. The model was developed as a tool to aid understanding of the physical factors affecting quality and quantity of spawning and rearing habitat used by the endangered white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) and for assessing the feasibility of various habitat-enhancement scenarios to re-establish recruitment of white sturgeon. At the request of the Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, the USGS extended the two-dimensional flow model developed in 2005 into a braided reach upstream of the current white sturgeon spawning reach. Many scientists consider the braided reach a suitable substrate with adequate streamflow velocities for re-establishing recruitment of white sturgeon. The 2005 model was extended upstream to help assess the feasibility of various strategies to encourage white sturgeon to spawn in the reach. At the request of the Idaho Department of Fish and Game, the USGS also extended the two-dimensional flow model several kilometers downstream of the white sturgeon spawning reach. This modified model can quantify the physical characteristics of a reach that white sturgeon pass through as they swim upstream from Kootenay Lake to the spawning reach. The USGS Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System was used for the 2005 modeling effort and for this subsequent modeling effort. This report describes the model applications and limitations, presents the results of a few simple simulations, and demonstrates how the model can be used to link physical characteristics of streamflow to the location of white sturgeon spawning events during 1994-2001. Model simulations also were used to report on the length and percentage of longitudinal profiles that met the minimum criteria during May and June 2006 and 2007 as stipulated in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Biological Opinion.

Idaho↗
USGS2009

Riparian and Associated Habitat Characteristics Related to Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Responses of Small Streams in Selected Agricultural Areas, United States, 2003-04

Physical factors, including both in-stream and riparian habitat characteristics that limit biomass or otherwise regulate aquatic biological condition, have been identified by previous studies. However, linking the ecological significance of nutrient enrichment to habitat or landscape factors that could allow for improved management of streams has proved to be a challenge in many regions, including agricultural landscapes, where many ecological stressors are strong and the variability among watersheds typically is large. Riparian and associated habitat characteristics were sampled once during 2003-04 for an intensive ecological and nutrients study of small perennial streams in five contrasting agricultural landscapes across the United States to determine how biological communities and ecosystem processes respond to varying levels of nutrient enrichment. Nutrient concentrations were determined in stream water at two different sampling times per site and biological samples were collected once per site near the time of habitat characterization. Data for 141 sampling sites were compiled, representing five study areas, located in parts of the Delmarva Peninsula (Delaware and Maryland), Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, and Washington. This report examines the available data for riparian and associated habitat characteristics to address questions related to study-unit contrasts, spatial scale-related differences, multivariate correlation structure, and bivariate relations between selected habitat characteristics and either stream nutrient conditions or biological responses. Riparian and associated habitat characteristics were summarized and categorized into 22 groups of habitat variables, with 11 groups representing land-use and land-cover characteristics and 11 groups representing other riparian or in-stream habitat characteristics. Principal components analysis was used to identify a reduced set of habitat variables that describe most of the variability among the sampled sites. The habitat characteristics sampled within the five study units were compared statistically. Bivariate correlations between riparian habitat variables and either nutrient-chemistry or biological-response variables were examined for all sites combined, and for sites within each study area. Nutrient concentrations were correlated with the extent of riparian cropland. For nitrogen species, these correlations were more frequently at the basin scale, whereas for phosphorus, they were about equally frequent at the segment and basin scales. Basin-level extents of riparian cropland and reach-level bank vegetative cover were correlated strongly with both total nitrogen and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) among multiple study areas, reflecting the importance of agricultural land-management and conservation practices for reducing nitrogen delivery from near-stream sources. When sites lacking segment-level wetlands were excluded, the negative correlation of riparian wetland extent with DIN among 49 sites was strong at the reach and segment levels. Riparian wetland vegetation thus may be removing dissolved nutrients from soil water and shallow groundwater passing through riparian zones. Other habitat variables that correlated strongly with nitrogen and phosphorus species included suspended sediment, light availability, and antecedent water temperature. Chlorophyll concentrations in seston were positively correlated with phosphorus concentrations for all sites combined. Benthic chlorophyll was correlated strongly with nutrient concentrations in only the Delmarva study area and only in fine-grained habitats. Current velocity or hydraulic scour could explain correlation patterns for benthic chlorophyll among Georgia sites, whereas chlorophyll in seston was correlated with antecedent water temperature among Washington and Delmarva sites. The lack of any consistent correlation pattern between habitat characteristics and organic material density (ash-free dry mass)

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2025

Disease, environment, and pollution: Understanding drivers behind tumour outbreaks in sea turtles

Various wildlife diseases of the Anthropocene (the Anthropocene currently has no formal status in the Divisions of Geologic Time https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2018/3054/fs20183054.pdf , accessed 4 June 2024) have root causes that are found in human-driven environmental disturbances. Fibropapillomatosis of sea turtles is exemplary of a human-exacerbated wildlife disease, and this case study offers an overview of how we applied a One Health approach and interdisciplinary process to better understand its complexity and highlight the interconnections existing between the health of the environment, and of the wildlife and humans living in it. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have known detrimental effects on human and wildlife health. Ubiquitous in the environment, these degradation-resistant chemicals have a high bioaccumulation potential. This case study describes the interdisciplinary plan and One Health design implemented to measure the role of harmful pollutants in the occurrence of a marine turtle panzootic fibropapillomatosis (FP). FP is a neoplastic disease that causes the growth of debilitating tumours on soft tissues and internal organs. Disease incidence has been increasing significantly throughout the Anthropocene and the reasons are still uncertain. The pervasive effect of pollution in marine coastal habitats has often been hypothesized as a driver of high disease prevalence but never fully tested. Our project combines disease ecology, marine field biology, and chemical toxicology in the attempt to unravel the intricate dynamics behind FP. We here describe the complex process used to develop a methodology to measure levels of harmful seawater pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in important sea turtle habitats in Florida. The proposed contaminants are among the top priority harmful pollutants, highly carcinogenic in aquatic animals, and bioaccumulate in sea turtles. Although only providing a description of the methodological process, this case study can help future research to apply similar transdisciplinary studies in the context of wildlife diseases. Understanding the effects of anthropogenic-driven pollution activity on ocean health can clarify its consequences to the health of wildlife and humans living in and around that environment.

One Health Cases↗
USGS2016

Geology and biology of the "Sticky Grounds," shelf-margin carbonate mounds, and mesophotic ecosystem in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

Shelf-margin carbonate mounds in water depths of 116–135 m in the eastern Gulf of Mexico along the central west Florida shelf were investigated using swath bathymetry, side-scan sonar, sub-bottom imaging, rock dredging, and submersible dives. These enigmatic structures, known to fisherman as the “Sticky Grounds”, trend along slope, are 5–15 m in relief with base diameters of 5–30 m, and suggest widespread potential for mesophotic reef habitat along the west Florida outer continental shelf. Possible origins are sea-level lowstand coral patch reefs, oyster reefs, or perhaps more recent post-lowstand biohermal development. Rock dredging recovered bioeroded carbonate-rock facies comprised of bored and cemented bioclastics. Rock sample components included calcified worm tubes, pelagic sediment, and oysters normally restricted to brackish nearshore areas. Several reef sites were surveyed at the Sticky Grounds during a cruise in August 2010 with the R/V Seward Johnson using the Johnson-Sea-Link II submersible to ground truth the swath-sonar maps and to quantify and characterize the benthic habitats, benthic macrofauna, fish populations, and coral/sponge cover. This study characterizes for the first time this mesophotic reef ecosystem and associated fish populations, and analyzes the interrelationships of the fish assemblages, benthic habitats and invertebrate biota. These highly eroded rock mounds provide extensive hard-bottom habitat for reef invertebrate species as well as essential fish habitat for reef fish and commercially/recreationally important fish species. The extent and significance of associated living resources with these bottom types is particularly important in light of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the northeastern Gulf and the proximity of the Loop Current. Mapping the distribution of these mesophotic-depth ecosystems is important for quantifying essential fish habitat and describing benthic resources. These activities can improve ecosystem management and planning of future oil and gas activities in this outer continental shelf region.

Continental Shelf Research↗
USGS2025

Multi-species telemetry quantifies current and future efficacy of a remote marine protected area

Large-scale marine protected areas (LSMPAs; > 1000 km 2 ) provide important refuge for large mobile species, but most do not encompass species' ranges. To better understand current and future LSMPA value, we concurrently tracked nine species (seabirds, cetaceans, pelagic fishes, manta rays, reef sharks) at Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef (PKMPA) in the U.S. Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument. PKMPA and the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone encompassed 39% and 54% of species movements ( n = 83; tracking duration range: 0.5–350 days), respectively. Species distribution models indicated 73% of PKMPA contained highly suitable habitat. Under two projected future scenarios (SSP 1–2.6, “Sustainability”; SSP 3–7.0, “Rocky Road”), strong sea surface temperature gradients initially could cause abrupt oceanic change resulting in predicted habitat loss in 2040–2050, followed by an equilibrium response and regained habitat by 2090–2100. Current and future suitable habitats were available adjacent to PKMPA, suggesting that increased MPA size could enhance protection. Our three-tiered approach combining animal tracking with publicly available remote sensing data and future projected environmental scenarios could be used to design, study, and monitor protected areas throughout the world. Holistic approaches that encompass diverse species and habitat use can enhance assessments of protected area designs. Animal telemetry and remote sensing may be helpful for ascertaining the extent to which other MPAs protect large mobile species in the future.

Kingman Reef, Palmyra Atoll, U.S. Pacific Islands ↗
USGS2021

Hydrographic and benthic mapping—St. Croix National Scenic Riverway—Osceola landing

High-resolution topographic and bathymetric mapping can assist in the analysis of river habitat. The National Park Service has been planning to relocate a boat ramp along the St. Croix River in Minnesota, across the river from the town of Osceola, Wisconsin, to improve visitor safety, improve operations for commercial use, enhance the overall visitor experience, and eliminate deferred maintenance at the landing. This landing grants access to the St. Croix River, which is a part of the National Park Service St. Croix National Scenic Riverway. Hydrographic and topographic surveys were needed to determine where the new location should be. The objective for these surveys was to provide baseline information in order to assess the direct effects of the landing relocation on physical habitat in areas adjacent to Osceola, Wisconsin. The study area for these surveys was about 18.5 hectares and located directly off the existing landing. Although the existing boat launch is referred to as the Osceola landing, it is located on the Minnesota side of the river and is the busiest National Park Service landing on the St. Croix River (National Park Service St. Croix National Scenic Riverway, 2020). This report documents methods and results of aquatic benthic mapping in a small area of the St. Croix River. The hydroacoustic and topographic surveys were collected from October 16–17, 2019. The hydrographic surveys consisted of multibeam and sidescan sound navigation and ranging (sonars). The topographic shoreline survey consisted of light detection and ranging (lidar) captured by boat adjacent to riverbanks. Additionally, an acoustic Doppler current profiler was used to measure flow velocities. The water level was higher than normal, and therefore had faster flow during the hydroacoustic surveys. Multibeam, lidar, and sidescan surveys occurred the first day, and the velocity mapping and ground truthing was conducted the second day. Multibeam and lidar provided derivative datasets that included bathymetry and a topobathy with a spatial resolution of 1 foot. From these data, additional data could be measured including slope and terrain ruggedness. Sidescan (acoustic reflectance measures) provided imagery that was used to help with interpretation of the river bottom. Outcomes from these combined datasets were substrate and bedform maps. Much of the area was covered in sand ripples or small dunes. A small area running adjacent to the deeper valley or cut down the river consisted of harder substrates, such as cobble and gravel. Large woody debris piles were found throughout the study area. Multiple stationary moving-bed tests were completed, and no corrections were recommended for the conditions occurring during survey. Mussel presence was noted in some of the underwater videos. The physical parameters of depth, flow, bedforms, and substrate derived from the datasets provided baseline measures for a benthic habitat map. Further analysis of benthic habitat might be possible with additional biological and chemical data.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2015

Assessing the likely effectiveness of multispecies management for imperiled desert fishes with niche overlap analysis

A critical decision in species conservation is whether to target individual species or a complex of ecologically similar species. Management of multispecies complexes is likely to be most effective when species share similar distributions, threats, and response to threats. We used niche overlap analysis to assess ecological similarity of 3 sensitive desert fish species currently managed as an ecological complex. We measured the amount of shared distribution of multiple habitat and life history parameters between each pair of species. Habitat use and multiple life history parameters, including maximum body length, spawning temperature, and longevity, differed significantly among the 3 species. The differences in habitat use and life history parameters among the species suggest they are likely to respond differently to similar threats and that most management actions will not benefit all 3 species equally. Habitat restoration, frequency of stream dewatering, non-native species control, and management efforts in tributaries versus main stem rivers are all likely to impact each of the species differently. Our results demonstrate that niche overlap analysis provides a powerful tool for assessing the likely effectiveness of multispecies versus single-species conservation plans.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2020

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short‐term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well‐developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short‐ and long‐term. We summarize the current understanding of storm‐induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2007

Investigation of wind and water level for the Giacomini Wetland Restoration Project, Point Reyes National Seashore

Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS), comprising unique elements of geological, biological, and historical interest, is located on the central California coast approximately 60 km northwest of San Francisco. The National Seashore contains nearly 130 km of exposed and protected shorelines, spectacular coastal cliffs and headlands, lagoons, open grasslands, bushy hillsides, and forested ridges. Approximately 30 km of the shoreline are coastal-dune habitat that supports 11 federally listed species, including the threatened western snowy plover and the endangered plants Tidestrom's lupine ( Lupinus tidestromii ) and beach layia ( Layia carnosa ). The San Andreas Fault, a right-lateral strike-slip fault, trends northwest along the northeastern side of the park. Tomales Bay, which is straight, long, narrow, and shallow, runs along the northeastern boundary of PRNS. The Bay, which fills the northwestern end of a rift valley at the intersection of the San Andreas Fault with the coastline, is approximately 20 km long, 2 km wide, and 6 m deep with mountainous terrain to the southwest and rolling hills to the northeast. Tomales Bay is one of the cleanest estuaries on the West Coast. In winter, approximately 17,000 to 20,000 shorebirds inhabit Tomales Bay and Bodega Bay, which lies directly to the north. At the head of Tomales Bay, the Giacomini Ranch comprises 563 acres of pastureland currently being used for grazing dairy cattle. After more than 50 years of operation as a dairy, the National Park Service acquired the Giacomini property with the intention to restore most of it and the nearby Olema Marsh to tidal wetland. Restoration will add approximately 4% to the existing coastal wetlands in California. The project will return the headwaters of Tomales Bay and two major stream intersections to an intertidal marsh environment, enhancing habitat for both wildlife and fish populations and contributing to the long-term health of Tomales Bay. Prior to the establishment of the ranch, the area was primarily salt marsh that formed as the delta of Lagunitas Creek expanded into Tomales Bay. In converting the salt marsh to dairy land, levees and tide gates were constructed to prevent tidal incursion and stream flooding. Those levees have significantly altered the patterns of estuarine circulation and sediment deposition. To restore natural hydrologic processes within the area and to promote the return of ecological functions and processes, the levees will have to be breached or removed. Developing a successful restoration strategy requires knowledge of elevations within the pastureland and the range of water depths that can be expected from tidal, river, and wind action. In support of the restoration program, the USGS provides technical assistance to PRNS in the form of a scientific study focusing on understanding the physical processes that could affect the Giacomini wetland restoration. The study will yield scientific products that NPS resource managers can use in designing and implementing the restoration project. Research elements include: - Develop a Geodetic Control Network (GCN) throughout PRNS that meets the standards specified National Geodetic Survey data base (the NGS "Bluebook"). The grid will allow this and future studies to be conducted to a precision commensurate with the expressed goals of PRNS. The survey will consist of three steps: (1) verify existing GPS control monuments in the area; (2) tie control monuments in the study areas to the GPS control monuments; and (3) establish NAVD88 elevations using a digital electronic level. - Conduct a detailed survey of the Giacomini site to produce an accurate topographic map of the property. The site survey can be coupled with on-site water-level measurements to produce an empirical flooding model. - Measure water level and wind regime at the Giacomini site. The water-level range is critical to determining the wetland types based on the elevation of the dairy land. Water level at Sacramento Landing, in central Tomales Bay, will also be measured for comparison. As of November 2005, we have created a GCN, produced a detailed topographic map of the Giacomini site, and collected approximately three years of water-level and wind data at the Giacomini site and over one year of usable water-level data at the Sacramento Landing pier.

California↗
USGS2018

An evaluation of the toxicity of potassium chloride, active compound in the molluscicide potash, on salmonid fish and their forage base

Potash, with the active ingredient potassium chloride (KCl) is a chemical that is currently being evaluated for potential use as a molluscicide to combat invasive zebra mussels and quagga mussels in Western United States waters. Although data available for other freshwater fishes indicate that recommended treatment levels of potash as a molluscicide are sublethal, this has not been demonstrated for all salmonid species. The objectives of this study were to perform toxicity testing to determine the lethality of potassium chloride against selected species of salmonid fish (brook trout and Chinook salmon) and selected invertebrate forage, and to identify any potential adverse physiological impacts of KCl to these salmonids in water at treatment levels used for mollusk eradication. Minimal mortality (n=1 fish) was observed during 96-hour toxicity testing at KCl concentrations of 0 to 800 milligrams per liter (mg/L), indicating that the lethal concentration (LC 50 ) values in these salmonid species were considerably higher than realistic molluscicide treatment concentrations. Sublethal effects were examined through evaluation of behavioral and morphological (histological) observation as well as specific blood chemistry parameters (electrolytes, osmolality, glucose, and cortisol). There was no strong evidence of significant physiological impairment among the two salmonid species due to KCl exposure. Whereas statistically significant differences in some parameters were observed in association with KCl treatments, it is unlikely that these differences indicate adverse biological impacts. Acute toxicity tests were conducted with invertebrate species at KCl exposure concentrations of 0–3,200 mg/L. Daphniid exposure trials resulted in differences in mortality among the test groups with higher mortality evident among the higher KCl exposure concentrations with a calculated LC 50 value of 196 mg/L KCl for a 48-hour exposure. Crayfish exposed to higher concentrations of KCl at or above 800 mg/L as specimens exhibited death or reversible paralysis. Chironomid larvae exposures were largely inconclusive because of cannibalistic behavior among the various test groups.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Satellite-detected forest disturbance forecasts American marten population decline: The case for supportive space-based monitoring

Limited monitoring resources often constrain rigorous monitoring practices to species or populations of conservation concern. Insufficient monitoring can induce a tautology as lack of monitoring resources makes it difficult to determine whether a species or population deserves additional monitoring resources. When in-situ monitoring resources are limited, remote habitat monitoring could be a useful supplementary tool, as linking parameterized species distribution models to spatially explicit time-series of environmental correlates allows iterative prediction of population change. Yet the performance of predictive forecasts or hindcasts has been difficult to evaluate. We paired contemporary field data, historic population estimates, and a remotely-sensed archive of landscape change to evaluate predictions of American marten ( Martes americana ) population decline owing to habitat loss in Maine, USA. We estimated contemporary spatial patterns in marten density relative to landscape disturbance with spatial capture-recapture models. We compared current density estimates to historical density calculations to evaluate population decline, and compared historical calculations to habitat-based model predictions to evaluate the efficacy of habitat monitoring as a proxy for direct monitoring. Marten density was negatively associated with the proportion of surrounding regenerating forest, and point estimates within focal townships were 50–80% lower than historical calculations. Habitat-based hindcasts of marten density across our entire focal area interest suggested a smaller population decline (roughly 50%) within our focal area. Thus, although habitat-based predictions underpredicted marten decline, they provided correct directional inference. Habitat monitoring and predictions from species distribution models may provide useful inference about population changes given trends in habitat at limited expense when in-situ information is lacking.

Maine↗
USGS2019

Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO 2 . However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by −188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of −89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of −9.4% (−432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from −916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2 is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.

California↗