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Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z ) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level. The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource managers to inform their decision-making processes; however, as with all population models, caution is needed, and a full understanding of the limitations of a model and the veracity of user-supplied parameters should always be considered when using such model output in the management of any species.

Open-File Report↗

Continuous water-quality monitoring and regression analysis to estimate constituent concentrations and loads in the Sheyenne River, North Dakota, 1980-2006

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, done in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, to estimate water-quality constituent concentrations at seven sites on the Sheyenne River, N. Dak. Regression analysis of water-quality data collected in 1980-2006 was used to estimate concentrations for hardness, dissolved solids, calcium, magnesium, sodium, and sulfate. The explanatory variables examined for the regression relations were continuously monitored streamflow, specific conductance, and water temperature. For the conditions observed in 1980-2006, streamflow was a significant explanatory variable for some constituents. Specific conductance was a significant explanatory variable for all of the constituents, and water temperature was not a statistically significant explanatory variable for any of the constituents in this study. The regression relations were evaluated using common measures of variability, including R2, the proportion of variability in the estimated constituent concentration explained by the explanatory variables and regression equation. R2 values ranged from 0.784 for calcium to 0.997 for dissolved solids. The regression relations also were evaluated by calculating the median relative percentage difference (RPD) between measured constituent concentration and the constituent concentration estimated by the regression equations. Median RPDs ranged from 1.7 for dissolved solids to 11.5 for sulfate. The regression relations also may be used to estimate daily constituent loads. The relations should be monitored for change over time, especially at sites 2 and 3 which have a short period of record. In addition, caution should be used when the Sheyenne River is affected by ice or when upstream sites are affected by isolated storm runoff. Almost all of the outliers and highly influential samples removed from the analysis were made during periods when the Sheyenne River might be affected by ice.

North Dakota↗

Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet). Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads. In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years. A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly generated future duration of the current wet period. On the basis of the simulations, and assuming ice-free conditions and calm wind, the Devils Lake flood elevation for an annualized flood risk of 1 percent (analogous to a “100-year” riverine flood) was estimated to be 1,454.6 feet for a 10-year time horizon (2008­­­–17). Therefore, without adjusting for wind or ice, a residence near Devils Lake at elevation 1,454.6 feet has the same chance of being flooded sometime during the next 10 years as a residence at the edge of the 100-year flood plain along a river. Adjusting for the effects of wind or ice, which will increase the flood elevations for many locations near the lakes, was not within the scope of this study.

North Dakota↗

Water quality, hydrology, and invertebrate communities of three remnant wetlands in Missouri, 1995-97

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources from December 1995 through May 1997 to describe the water quality, hydrologic, and invertebrate characteristics of three remnant wetlands. These data may be used to help develop selected water-quality standards for wetlands in Missouri. Wetlands monitored in this study include Spile Lake, Vernon County; Little Bean Marsh, Platte County; and Forker Oxbow, Linn County, Missouri. Extremes in physicochemical properties in these wetlands were greatly affected by thermal stratification, hydrologic fluctuations, biological activity, and ice formation. The wetlands had dissolved-oxygen concentrations below the 5-milligrams-per-liter State water-quality standard from 40 to 60 percent of a selected 1-year period, corresponding to periods of thermal stratification. Hydrologic fluctuations were common as the water-surface elevation changes in these systems ranged up to 12 feet during the course of the study. Photosynthesis and respiration are likely causes of diurnal fluctuations in pH and dissolved oxygen throughout the study period, but particularly in the summer months. Periods of ice formation were short lived in the wetlands, but corresponded with maximum values of specific conductance and dissolved oxygen in all three systems. Analyses of invertebrate results using the Jaccard Coefficient of Community Similarity indicated mixed results. Woody snag sample results showed little similarities between sites, while sweep net sample results indicated similarities existed. Most of the families detected at these sites are considered organic tolerant as indicated by the Hilsenhoff Biotic Index. Analysis of the dominant taxon indicates that one or two invertebrate families that are tolerant to organic enrichment generally dominate the wetlands. The hydrologic, water quality, and invertebrate information analyzed in this study indicate that while there are similarities among wetlands, these are unique systems. The statistical comparisons between water-quality constituents in wetlands and streams indicate dissimilarities are common. Including the presence of thermal stratification in these wetlands, the exclusions and modifications in State standards that are applied to lakes and reservoirs also may be applicable.

Missouri↗

Continuous water-quality monitoring and regression analysis to estimate constituent concentrations and loads in the Red River of the North, Fargo, North Dakota, 2003-05

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, done in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior, to estimate water-quality constituent concentrations in the Red River of the North at Fargo, North Dakota. Regression analysis of water-quality data collected in 2003-05 was used to estimate concentrations and loads for alkalinity, dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, total nitrite plus nitrate, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment. The explanatory variables examined for regression relation were continuously monitored physical properties of water-streamflow, specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen. For the conditions observed in 2003-05, streamflow was a significant explanatory variable for all estimated constituents except dissolved solids. pH, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen were not statistically significant explanatory variables for any of the constituents in this study. Specific conductance was a significant explanatory variable for alkalinity, dissolved solids, sulfate, and chloride. Turbidity was a significant explanatory variable for total phosphorus and suspended sediment. For the nutrients, total nitrite plus nitrate, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus, cosine and sine functions of time also were used to explain the seasonality in constituent concentrations. The regression equations were evaluated using common measures of variability, including R2, or the proportion of variability in the estimated constituent explained by the regression equation. R2 values ranged from 0.703 for total nitrogen concentration to 0.990 for dissolved-solids concentration. The regression equations also were evaluated by calculating the median relative percentage difference (RPD) between measured constituent concentration and the constituent concentration estimated by the regression equations. Median RPDs ranged from 1.1 for dissolved solids to 35.2 for total nitrite plus nitrate. Regression equations also were used to estimate daily constituent loads. Load estimates can be used by water-quality managers for comparison of current water-quality conditions to water-quality standards expressed as total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). TMDLs are a measure of the maximum amount of chemical constituents that a water body can receive and still meet established water-quality standards. The peak loads generally occurred in June and July when streamflow also peaked.

North Dakota↗

Preliminary report on the geology and hydrology of Mortandad Canyon near Los Alamos, New Mexico, with reference to disposal of liquid low-level radioactive waste

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, selected the upper part of Mortandad Canyon near Los Alamos, New Mexico for a site for disposal of treated liquid low-level radioactive waste. This report summarizes the part of a study of the geology and hydrology that was done from October 1960 through June 1961. Additional work is being continued. Mortandad Canyon is a narrow east-southeast-trending canyon about 9? miles long that heads on the central part of the Pajarito Plateau at an altitude of about 7,340 feet. The canyon is tributary to the Rio Grande. The drainage area of the part of Mortandad Canyon that was investigated is about 2 square miles, and the total drainage area is about 4.9 square miles. The Pajarito Plateau is capped by the Bandelier Tuff of Pleistocene age. Mortandad Canyon is cut in the Bandelier, and alluvium covers the floor of the canyon to depths ranging from less than 1 foot to as much as 100 feet. The Bandelier is underlain by silt, sand, conglomerate, and interbedded basalt of the Santa Fe Group of Miocene, Pliocene, and Pleistocene(?) age. Some ground water is perched in the alluvium in the canyon; however, the top of the main aquifer is in the Santa Fe Group at a depth of about 990 feet below the canyon floor. Joints in the Bandelier Tuff probably were caused by shrinkage of the tuff during cooling. The joints range in width from hairline cracks to fissures several inches wide. Water can infiltrate along the open joints where the Bandelier is at the surface; however, soil, alluvial fill, and autochthonous clay inhibit infiltration on the tops of mesas and probably in the alluvium-floored canyons also. Thirty-three test holes, each less than 100 feet deep, were drilled in 10 lies across Mortandad Canyon from the western margin of the study area to just west of the Los Alamos-Santa Fe County line. Ten of the holes were cased for observation wells to measure water levels and collect water samples from the alluvium. Twenty-three of the holes were cased to seal out water and were used as access tubes to accommodate a neutron-neutron probe for determining the moisture content of the alluvium and tuff. The source of recharge for the perched ground-water body in the alluvium in Mortandad Canyon is the precipitation in the drainage area of the canyon. During the winter of 1960-61, a snowpack 1-2 feet thick accumulated in the narrow shaded upper part of the canyon. The alluvium below the snowpack received some recharge because of diurnal melting during the winter. In March 1961 the snowmelt water saturated most of the thin alluvium in the upper part of the canyon, and a surface stream began to flow on the alluvium. The maximum flow of the stream was about 250 gpm (gallons per minute). Water from the stream infiltrated the alluvium at the front of the stream and in the reach upstream from the front. A ground-water mound was formed beneath the channel by water infiltrating from the stream. The front of the stream and the front of the ground-water mound advanced eastward to about the middle of the area studied. From this point eastward, the alluvium was thick enough to absorb and transmit the amount of flow in 1961. Late in April the front of the stream retreated, and by the first of May the flow stopped. During and after this period the ground-water mound decayed, and ground-water levels declined in the upper part of the canyon as water drained into the channel and downgradient through the alluvium. The amount of recharge was small in the wide lower part of the canyon during the period of study. The rise in ground-water levels and the increase in moisture content of the alluvium in the lower part of the canyon indicate that water moved downgradient by underflow through the alluvium from the recharge area in the upper part of the canyon. Moisture measurements indicate that only a little water moved into the underlyin

Open-File Report↗

Drought-trigger ground-water levels in Chester County, Pennsylvania, for the period of record ending May 2006

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority (CCWRA), to update the drought-trigger water levels for the Chester County observation-well network. The Chester County observation-well network was established in 1973 through a cooperative agreement between the CCWRA and the USGS to monitor local ground-water levels and trends and to determine drought conditions. In 1990 and again in 1997, drought-warning and drought-emergency water-level triggers were determined for the majority of wells in the existing Chester County observation-well network of 23 wells. Since 1997, the Chester County observation-well network expanded to 29 wells, some of the original wells were destroyed, and additional monthly water-level observations were made to allow for better statistical relations. Because of these changes, new statistics for water-level triggers were required. For this study, 19 of the 29 wells in the observation-well network were used to compute drought-trigger water levels. An additional 'drought-watch water-level trigger' category was developed to make the Chester County drought-trigger water-level categories consistent with those implemented by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PaDEP). The three drought-trigger water-level categories, as defined by PaDEP are 1) 'drought watch' when at the 75th-percentile level; 2) 'drought warning' when at the 90th-percentile level; and 3) 'drought emergency' when at the 95th-percentile level. A revised methodology, resulting from longer periods of record representing ground-water and climatic conditions and changes in local water use, has resulted in some observed differences in drought-trigger water levels. A comparison of current drought-trigger water levels to those calculated in 1997 shows the largest mean annual change in percentile values was in northeastern Chester County. In this northeastern region, the average 90th-percentile water levels changed by as much as 1.84 feet (17.5 percent) from those determined in 1997. Other observation wells in the county generally exhibited a smaller mean annual change in percentile values; a typical change was less than 0.5 foot. While most revisions in the drought-trigger water levels generally can be attributed to different methodology and (or) the additional years of data collected under existing climatic conditions, anthropogenic influences, such as the cessation of local pumping stresses, also were shown to cause changes in the drought-trigger water levels determined in this study.

Pennsylvania↗

Concentrations, and estimated loads and yields of total nitrogen and total phosphorus at selected water-quality monitoring network stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

To evaluate the State’s water quality, the Kentucky Division of Water collects data from a statewide network of primary ambient stream water-quality monitoring stations and flexible, rotating watershed-monitoring stations. This ambient stream water-quality monitoring network program is directed to assess the conditions of surface waters throughout Kentucky. Water samples were collected monthly for the majority of the stations from 1979 to 1998, which represented agricultural, undeveloped (mainly forested), and areas of mixed land use/land cover. In 1998, the number of water samples collected was reduced to a collection frequency of six times per year (every 2 months) every 4 of 5 years, because a new monitoring network was implemented involving a 5-year rotating Basin Management Unit scheme of monitoring. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet–Kentucky Division of Water, to summarize concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus and provide estimates of total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads and yields in 55 selected streams in Kentucky’s ambient stream water-quality monitoring network, which was operated from 1979 through 2004. Streams in predominately agricultural basins had higher concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) than streams in predominately undeveloped (forested) basins. Streams in basins in intensely developed karst areas characterized by caves, springs, sinkholes, and sinking streams had a higher median concentration of TN (1.5 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) than streams in basins with limited or no karst areas (0.63 mg/L). As with TN, median concentrations of TP also were higher in areas of intense karst (0.05 mg/L) than in areas with limited or no karst (0.02 mg/L). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has recommended ecoregional nutrient water-quality criteria as a starting point for States to establish more precise numeric water-quality criteria for nutrients to protect aquatic life and recreational and other uses of rivers and streams. On the basis of the 25 th percentile of concentration data from reference stations aggregated by ecoregion, the USEPA established recommended water-quality criteria for TN and TP in the two Aggregated Ecoregions (IX and XI) in Kentucky waters. The 25 th percentile median values for TN and TP from this study exceeded the USEPA’s recommendations in both aggregated ecoregions in the agricultural and mixed land-use/land-cover basins, and for TN in the undeveloped land-use/land-cover basins in Aggregated Ecoregion XI. However, the 25 th percentile median values for TN (Aggregated Ecoregion IX) and TP in both aggregated ecoregions did not exceed the USEPA’s recommendations in the undeveloped land-use/land-cover basins. Estimated loads and yields of TN and TP varied substantially among the individual stations. Estimated mean annual yields of TN ranged from 0.10 [tons per year per square mile (ton/yr)/mi 2 ] to 7.2 (ton/yr)/mi 2 , and estimated mean annual yields of TP ranged from 0.02 (ton/yr)/mi 2 to 1.4 (ton/yr)/mi 2 . Estimated mean annual yields of TN and TP were generally highest at stations in predominately agricultural basins, and lowest at stations in undeveloped land-use/land-cover basins.

Kentucky↗

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for streams in the Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1970-2001

The Bureau of Reclamation is considering several alternatives to meet the future municipal, rural, and industrial water-supply needs in the Red River of the North (Red River) Basin, and an environmental impact statement is being prepared to evaluate the potential effects of the various alternatives on the water quality and aquatic health in the basin in relation to the historical variability of streamflow and constituent concentration. Therefore, a water-quality trend analysis was needed to determine the amount of natural water-quality variability that can be expected to occur in the basin, to determine if significant water-quality changes have occurred as a result of human activities, to explore potential causal mechanisms for water-quality changes, and to establish a baseline from which to monitor future water-quality trends. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, to analyze historical water-quality trends in two dissolved major ions, dissolved solids, three nutrients, and two dissolved trace metals for nine streamflow-gaging stations in the basin. Annual variability in streamflow in the Red River Basin was high during the trend-analysis period (1970-2001). The annual variability affects constituent concentrations in individual tributaries to the Red River and, in turn, affects constituent concentrations in the main stem of the Red River because of the relative streamflow contribution from the tributaries to the main stem. Therefore, an annual concentration anomaly, which is an estimate of the interannual variability in concentration that can be attributed to long-term variability in streamflow, was used to analyze annual streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. The concentration trend is an estimate of the long-term systematic changes in concentration that are unrelated to seasonal or long-term variability in streamflow. Concentrations that have both the seasonal and annual variability removed are called standardized concentrations. Numerous changes that could not be attributed to natural streamflow-related variability occurred in the standardized concentrations during the trend-analysis period. During various times from the late 1970's to the mid-1990's, significant increases occurred in standardized dissolved sulfate, dissolved chloride, and dissolved- solids concentrations for eight of the nine stations for which water-quality trends were analyzed. Significant increases also occurred from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's for standardized dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations for the main-stem stations. The increasing concentrations for the main-stem stations indicate the upward trends may have been caused by human activities along the main stem of the Red River. Significant trends for standardized total ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentrations occurred for most stations. The fitted trends for standardized total phosphorus concentrations for one tributary station increased from the late 1970's to the early 1980's and decreased from the early 1980's to the mid-1990's. Small but insignificant increases occurred for two main-stem stations. No trends were detected for standardized dissolved iron or dissolved manganese concentrations. However, the combination of extreme high-frequency variability, few data, and the number of censored values may have disguised the streamflow-related variability for iron. The time-series model used to detect historical concentration trends also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Various sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect both annual and seasonal trends during three 4-month seasons. A reasonable overall design for detecting trends for all stations and constituents consisted of eight samples per year, with monthly sampling from April to August and bimonthly sampling from October to February.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Numerical simulation of streamflow distribution, sediment transport, and sediment deposition along Long Beach Creek in Northeast Missouri

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation to describe the hydrology, sediment transport, and sediment deposition along a selected reach of Long Branch Creek in Macon County, Missouri. The study was designed to investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of sediment deposition in a remnant forested riparian area and compare these factors by magnitude of discharge events both within and outside the measured range of flood magnitudes. The two-dimensional finite-element numerical models RMA2-WES and SED2D-WES were used in conjunction with measured data to simulate streamflow and sediment transport/deposition characteristics during 2-, 5-, 10-, and 25-year recurrence interval floods. Spatial analysis of simulated sediment deposition results indicated that mean deposition in oxbows and secondary channels exceeded that of the remaining floodplain areas during the 2-, 5-, 10-, and 25-year recurrence interval floods. The simulated mass deposition per area for oxbows and secondary channels was 1.1 to 1.4 centimeters per square meter compared with 0.1 to 0.60 centimeters per square meter for the remaining floodplain. The temporal variability of total incremental floodplain deposition during a flood was found to be strongly tied to sediment inflow concentrations. Most floodplain deposition, therefore, occurred at the beginning of the streamflow events and corresponded to peaks in sediment discharge. Simulated total sediment deposition in oxbows and secondary channels increased in the 2-year through 10-year floods and decreased in the 25- year flood while remaining floodplain deposition was highest for the 25-year flood. Despite increases in sediment inflows from the 2-year through 25-year floods, the retention ratio of sediments (the ratio of floodplain deposition to inflow load) was greatest for the 5-year flood and least for the 25-year flood. The decrease in retention ratio at greater flows is likely the result of higher velocities on the floodplain, resulting in higher bed shear stress, greater suspension time of deposited material, and greater sediment transport through the system. Simulated sediment deposition was most sensitive to sediment inflow concentrations and modification of floodplain roughness—factors that can be controlled through management practices. The increase in floodplain sediment deposition resulting from a simulated increase in vegetation density (increase in floodplain roughness from a Manning's n of 0.11 to 0.12) was 142,000 kilograms, or 6.5 percent for a 10-year recurrence interval flood. This increase was comparable to total oxbow and secondary channel deposition mass in the simulations, but would result in a mean increase in floodplain deposition thickness of only 0.025 centimeter. The hydrodynamic model results show the importance of the secondary channels and meander cutoff channels in this system because these areas quickly bring floodwaters and sediment to areas not close to the main channel. The meander cutoff channels in the simulation also effectively decrease flow and velocities in some main channel sections thereby affecting sediment deposition in the vicinity of these features.

Missouri↗

Water resources of the Red Lake Indian Reservation, northwestern Minnesota

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, done in cooperation with the Red Lake Indian Reservation Tribal Council, to evaluate the water resources of the contiguous Red Lake Indian Reservation. Water resources of the contiguous Red Lake Indian Reservation meet the present (1989) needs for potable supply and other household uses. In addition, they provide ecological, recreational, and aesthetic benefits. Mean annual precipitation in the study area is 22.7 inches. Approximately 90 percent of this precipitation returns to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration; the remainder becomes runoff. Some of the precipitation that contributes to evapotranspiration and runoff initially infiltrates the land surface and recharges the ground-water reservoir. The net recharge to ground water generally ranges from roughly 0.5 to 1.35 inches per year. Assuming negligible long-term changes in the amount of ground water in storage, the recharge to and discharge from the ground-water reservoir balance each other over time. Glacial-drift aquifers are the source of ground water in the Red Lake Indian Reservation. The most significant sources of ground-water supply are confined glacial-drift aquifers, which are discontinuous lenses of sand and gravel 50 to 150 feet below land surface. Estimated yields of wells completed in these aquifers range from approximately 20 to 240 gallons per minute. Lower and Upper Red Lakes, which extend over one fourth of the study area, are the largest surface-water bodies. The study area also includes streams and many smaller lakes. Most of the streams drain into Lower and Upper Red Lakes, and the lakes discharge into the Red Lake River. Spring snowmelt generally causes peak flows in the streams. Low-flow conditions commonly occur during midsummer to early fall and winter. The quality of ground water is suitable for drinking and other household uses, and the quality of the surface water generally meets U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criteria necessary for the maintenance of aquatic life. The major ions in both ground and surface water are calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate. Lower and Upper Red Lakes are eutrophic to mesotrophic on the basis of their summer Secchi disk-transparency readings, which ranged from 2.6 to 8.2 feet. The concentration of total organic carbon in samples from Lower and Upper Red Lakes and four streams were below or, in the case of one stream, about equal to 30 milligrams per liter, which is indicative of water little affected by human activities. The sample with the highest organic carbon content was collected from a stream that drained peatlands, which were probably sources of organic matter in the runoff. The concentration of nitrite plus nitrate in samples collected from Lower and Upper Red Lakes in late summer was below 0.01 milligrams per liter, which is characteristic of water uncontaminated by animal wastes. Total phosphorus in these samples ranged from 0.01 to 0.02 milligrams per liter. Most of this phosphorus was in the particulate organic fraction because of the abundance of phytoplankton.

Minnesota↗

Drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania

This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey, to determine drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania. Because all or parts of southeastern Pennsylvania have been in drought-warning or drought-emergency status during 6 of the past 10 years from 1994 through 2004, this information should aid well owners, drillers, and water-resource managers in guiding appropriate well construction and sustainable use of Pennsylvania's water resources. 'Drought-sensitive' aquifer settings are defined for this study as areas unable to supply adequate quantities of water to wells during drought. Using information from previous investigations and a knowledge of the hydrogeology and topography of the study area, drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania were hypothesized as being associated with two factors - a water-table decline (WTD) index and topographic setting. The WTD index is an estimate of the theoretical water-table decline at the ground-water divide for a hypothetical aquifer with idealized geometry. The index shows the magnitude of ground-water decline after cessation of recharge is a function of (1) distance from stream to divide, (2) ground-water recharge rate, (3) transmissivity, (4) specific yield, and (5) duration of the drought. WTD indices were developed for 39 aquifers that were subsequently grouped into categories of high, moderate, and low WTD index. Drought-sensitive settings determined from the hypothesized factors were compared to locations of wells known to have been affected (gone dry, replaced, or deepened) during recent droughts. Information collected from well owners, drillers, and public agencies identified 2,016 wells affected by drought during 1998-2002. Most of the available data on the location of drought-affected wells in the study area were from Chester and Montgomery Counties because those counties have well-construction regulations that identify wells that failed during drought. The locations of drought-affected wells in Chester and Montgomery Counties indicated the most highly sensitive settings are uplands and slopes in aquifers with high WTD index and uplands in aquifers with moderate WTD index. The least sensitive settings are in aquifers with low WTD index, in valleys, or on slopes. A map was developed showing the relative drought sensitivity (low, moderate, and high) of aquifers in southeastern Pennsylvania. Study results were limited by the inability to obtain much information about the location of drought-affected wells, with the exception of Montgomery and Chester Counties. Also, the construction characteristics (particularly depth) of drought-affected wells generally were not available. Well depth could be used to distinguish between problems caused by shallow well depth (generally less than 100 ft) and those caused by deficiency of the aquifer to supply water. With the exception of owner-derived information from a public survey on drought-affected wells (35 wells), depth data were not obtained. Data from the 35 drought-affected wells indicated most were drilled (not dug) and were completed to depths greater than 100 feet. This finding indicates that the affects of recent droughts in southeastern Pennsylvania were not restricted to shallow dug wells, but also affected deeper drilled wells.

Pennsylvania↗

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

North Dakota↗

Lithologic and physicochemical properties and hydraulics of flow in and near the freshwater/saline-water transition zone, San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer, south-central Texas, based on water-level and borehole geophysical log data, 1999-2007

The freshwater zone of the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas (hereinafter, the Edwards aquifer) is bounded to the south and southeast by a zone of transition from freshwater to saline water (hereinafter, the transition zone). The boundary between the two zones is the freshwater/saline-water interface (hereinafter, the interface), defined as the 1,000-milligrams per liter dissolved solids concentration threshold. This report presents the findings of a study, done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, to obtain lithologic properties (rock properties associated with known stratigraphic units) and physicochemical properties (fluid conductivity and temperature) and to analyze the hydraulics of flow in and near the transition zone of the Edwards aquifer on the basis of water-level and borehole geophysical log data collected from 15 monitoring wells in four transects during 1999-2007. No identifiable relation between conductivity values from geophysical logs in monitoring wells in all transects and equivalent freshwater heads in the wells at the times the logs were run is evident; and no identifiable relation between conductivity values and vertical flow in the boreholes concurrent with the times the logs were run is evident. The direction of the lateral equivalent freshwater head gradient and thus the potential lateral flow at the interface in the vicinity of the East Uvalde transect fluctuates between into and out of the freshwater zone, depending on recharge and withdrawals. Whether the prevailing direction on average is into or out of the freshwater zone is not clearly indicated. Equivalent freshwater head data do not indicate a prevailing direction of the lateral gradient at the interface in the vicinity of the Tri-County transect. The prevailing direction on average of the lateral gradient and thus potential lateral flow at the interface in the vicinity of the Kyle transect likely is from the transition zone into the freshwater zone. The hypothesis regarding the vertical gradient at the East Uvalde transect, and thus the potential for vertical flow near an interface conceptualized as a surface sloping upward in the direction of the dip of the stratigraphic units, is that the potential for vertical flow fluctuates between into and out of the freshwater zone, depending on recharge and withdrawals. At the Tri-County transect, a downward gradient on the fresh-water side of the interface and an upward gradient on the saline-water side are evidence of opposing potentials that appear to have stabilized the position of the interface over the range of hydrologic conditions that occurred at the times the logs were run. At the Fish Hatchery transect, an upward gradient on the saline-water side of the interface, coupled with the assumption of a sloping interface, implies a vertical gradient from the transition zone into the freshwater zone. This potential for vertical movement of the interface apparently was opposed by the potential (head) on the freshwater side of the interface that kept the interface relatively stable over the range of hydrologic conditions during which the logs were run. The five flow logs for Kyle transect freshwater well KY1 all indicate upward flow that originates from the Glen Rose Limestone, the uppermost unit of the Trinity aquifer; and one log for well KY2 shows upward flow entering the borehole from the Trinity aquifer. These flow data constitute evidence of the potential for flow from the Trinity aquifer into the Edwards aquifer in the vicinity of the Kyle transect. Subsurface temperature data indicate that flow on average is more active, or vigorous, on the freshwater side of the interface than on the saline-water side. A hydraulic connection between the transition zone and the freshwater zone is indicated by similar patterns in the hydrographs of the 15 transect monitoring wells in and near the transition zone and three county index wel

Texas↗

Effects of coal-mine discharges on the quality of the Stonycreek River and its tributaries, Somerset and Cambria counties, Pennsylvania

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, done in cooperation with the Somerset Conservation District, to locate and sample abandoned coal-mine discharges in the Stonycreek River Basin, to prioritize the mine discharges for remediation, and to determine the effects of the mine discharges on water quality of the Stonycreek River and its major tributaries. From October 1991 through November 1994, 270 abandoned coal-mine discharges were located and sampled. Discharges from 193 mines exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency effluent standards for pH, discharges from 122 mines exceeded effluent standards for total-iron concentration, and discharges from 141 mines exceeded effluent standards for total-manganese concentration. Discharges from 94 mines exceeded effluent standards for all three constituents. Only 40 mine discharges met effluent standards for pH and concentrations of total iron and total manganese. A prioritization index (PI) was developed to rank the mine discharges with respect to their loading capacity on the receiving stream. The PI lists the most severe mine discharges in a descending order for the Stonycreek River Basin and for subbasins that include the Shade Creek, Paint Creek, Wells Creek, Quemahoning Creek, Oven Run, and Pokeytown Run Basins. Passive-treatment systems that include aerobic wetlands, compost wetlands, and anoxic limestone drains (ALD's) are planned to remediate the abandoned mine discharges. The successive alkalinity-producing-system treatment combines ALD technology with the sulfate reduction mechanism of the compost wetland to effectively remediate mine discharge. The water quality and flow of each mine discharge will determine which treatment system or combination of treatment systems would be necessary for remediation. A network of 37 surface-water sampling sites was established to determine stream-water quality during base flow. A series of illustrations show how water quality in the mainstem deteriorates downstream because of inflows from tributaries affected by acidic mine discharges. From the upstream mainstem site (site 801) to the outflow mainstem site (site 805), pH decreased from 6.8 to 4.2, alkalinity was completely depleted by inflow acidities, and total-iron discharges increased from 30 to 684 pounds per day. Total-manganese and total-sulfate discharges increased because neither constituent precipitates readily. Also, discharges of manganese and sulfate entering the mainstem from tributary streams have a cumulative effect. Oven Run and Pokeytown Run are two small tributary streams significantly affected by acidic mine drainage (AMD) that flow into the Stonycreek River near the town of Hooversville. The Pokeytown Run inflow is about 0.5 mile downstream from the Oven Run inflow. These two streams are the first major source of AMD flowing into the Stonycreek River. Data collected on the Stonycreek River above the Oven Run inflow and below the Pokeytown Run inflow show a decrease in pH from 7.6 to 5.1, a decrease in alkalinity concentration from 42 to 2 milligrams per liter, an increase in total sulfate discharge from 18 to 41 tons per day, and an increase in total iron discharge from 29 to 1,770 pounds per day. Data collected at three mainstem sites on the Stonycreek River below Oven Run and Pokeytown Run show a progressive deterioration in river water quality from AMD. Shade Creek and Paint Creek are other tributary streams to the Stonycreek River that have a significant negative effect on water quality of the Stonycreek River. One third of the abandoned-mine discharges sampled were in the Shade Creek and Paint Creek Basins.

Pennsylvania↗

Water resources data, Pennsylvania, water year 2003—volume 3. Ohio and St. Lawrence River basins

Water resources data for the 2003 water year for Pennsylvania consist of records of discharge and water quality of streams; contents and elevations of lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality of ground-water wells. This report, Volume 3 contains (1) discharge records for 61 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, 5 partial-record stations and 13 special study and miscellaneous streamflow sites; (2) elevation and contents records for 11 lakes and reservoirs; (3) water-quality records for 8 lakes and reservoirs; (4) water-quality records for 23 gaging stations and 26 ungaged streamsites; (5) water-level records for 23 ground-water network observation wells. Site locations are shown in figures throughout the report. Additional water data collected at various sites not involved in the systematic data-collection program are also presented. These data together with the data in Volumes 1 and 2, represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State, local, and Federal agencies in Pennsylvania.

Water Data Report↗