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USGS2011

Surface (sea floor) and near-surface (box cores) sediment mineralogy in Baffin Bay as a key to sediment provenance and ice sheet variations

To better understand the glacial history of the ice sheets surrounding Baffin Bay and to provide information on sediment pathways, samples from 82 seafloor grabs and core tops, and from seven box cores were subjected to quantitative X-ray diffraction weight percent (wt.%) analysis of the <2 mm sediment fraction. The samples were collected between 67°N and 78°N, in water depths of 155 to 2375 m and were retrieved on cruises between A.D. 1964 and 2009. Grain size, magnetic characteristics, and colour reflectance data were also obtained on many of the samples. Twenty-one non-clay and 10 clay mineral species were identified; the average wt.% of the non-clay minerals was 70% and was dominated by quartz, various feldspars, and dolomite, whereas the dominant clay minerals were 1 M illite, biotite, and chlorite. Cluster analysis on principal component scores identified three main mineral groups, which also had strong associations with grain size and sediment magnetic properties. Box cores from the deep central basin (>2000 m) all show an abrupt drop in calcite wt.% (post-5 cal ka BP?) following a major peak in detrital carbonate (mainly dolomite). This dolomite-rich detrital carbonate (DC) event in JR175BC06 is possibly coeval with the Younger Dryas cold event. Four possible glacial-sourced end members were employed in a compositional unmixing algorithm to gain insight into down core changes in sediment provenance at the deep central basin. Estimates of the rates of sediment accumulation in the central basin are only in the range of 2 to 4 cm/cal ka, surprisingly low given the glaciated nature of the surrounding land.

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences↗

USGS2011

Geostatistical modeling of riparian forest microclimate and its implications for sampling

Predictive models of microclimate under various site conditions in forested headwater stream - riparian areas are poorly developed, and sampling designs for characterizing underlying riparian microclimate gradients are sparse. We used riparian microclimate data collected at eight headwater streams in the Oregon Coast Range to compare ordinary kriging (OK), universal kriging (UK), and kriging with external drift (KED) for point prediction of mean maximum air temperature (Tair). Several topographic and forest structure characteristics were considered as site-specific parameters. Height above stream and distance to stream were the most important covariates in the KED models, which outperformed OK and UK in terms of root mean square error. Sample patterns were optimized based on the kriging variance and the weighted means of shortest distance criterion using the simulated annealing algorithm. The optimized sample patterns outperformed systematic sample patterns in terms of mean kriging variance mainly for small sample sizes. These findings suggest methods for increasing efficiency of microclimate monitoring in riparian areas.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2022

Modeling morphodynamics of coastal response to extreme events: What shape are we in?

This review focuses on recent advances in process-based numerical models of the impact of extreme storms on sandy coasts. Driven by larger-scale models of meteorology and hydrodynamics, these models simulate morphodynamics across the Sallenger storm-impact scale, including swash, collision, overwash, and inundation. Models are becoming both wider (as more processes are added) and deeper (as detailed physics replaces earlier parameterizations). Algorithms for wave-induced flows and sediment transport under shoaling waves are among the recent developments. Community and open-source models have become the norm. Observations of initial conditions (topography, land cover, and sediment characteristics) have become more detailed, and improvements in tropical cyclone and wave models provide forcing (winds, waves, surge, and upland flow) that is better resolved and more accurate, yielding commensurate improvements in model skill. We foresee that future storm-impact models will increasingly resolve individual waves, apply data assimilation, and be used in ensemble modeling modes to predict uncertainties.

Annual Review of Marine Science↗

USGS2004

Accuracy of a pulse-coherent acoustic Doppler profiler in a wave-dominated flow

The accuracy of velocities measured by a pulse-coherent acoustic Doppler profiler (PCADP) in the bottom boundary layer of a wave-dominated inner-shelf environment is evaluated. The downward-looking PCADP measured velocities in eight 10-cm cells at 1 Hz. Velocities measured by the PCADP are compared to those measured by an acoustic Doppler velocimeter for wave orbital velocities up to 95 cm s-1 and currents up to 40 cm s-1. An algorithm for correcting ambiguity errors using the resolution velocities was developed. Instrument bias, measured as the average error in burst mean speed, is -0.4 cm s-1 (standard deviation = 0.8). The accuracy (root-mean-square error) of instantaneous velocities has a mean of 8.6 cm s-1 (standard deviation = 6.5) for eastward velocities (the predominant direction of waves), 6.5 cm s-1 (standard deviation = 4.4) for northward velocities, and 2.4 cm s-1 (standard deviation = 1.6) for vertical velocities. Both burst mean and root-mean-square errors are greater for bursts with ub ??? 50 cm s-1. Profiles of burst mean speeds from the bottom five cells were fit to logarithmic curves: 92% of bursts with mean speed ??? 5 cm s-1 have a correlation coefficient R2 > 0.96. In cells close to the transducer, instantaneous velocities are noisy, burst mean velocities are biased low, and bottom orbital velocities are biased high. With adequate blanking distances for both the profile and resolution velocities, the PCADP provides sufficient accuracy to measure velocities in the bottom boundary layer under moderately energetic inner-shelf conditions.

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology↗

USGS2015

Characterizing Congo Basin rainfall and climate using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data and limited rain gauge ground observations

Quantitative understanding of Congo River basin hydrological behavior is poor because of the basin’s limited hydrometeorological observation network. In cases such as the Congo basin where ground data are scarce, satellite-based estimates of rainfall, such as those from the joint NASA/JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), can be used to quantify rainfall patterns. This study tests and reports the use of limited rainfall gauge data within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to recalibrate a TRMM science product (TRMM 3B42, version 6) in characterizing precipitation and climate in the Congo basin. Rainfall estimates from TRMM 3B42, version 6, are compared and adjusted using ground precipitation data from 12 DRC meteorological stations from 1998 to 2007. Adjustment is achieved on a monthly scale by using a regression-tree algorithm. The output is a new, basin-specific estimate of monthly and annual rainfall and climate types across the Congo basin. This new product and the latest version-7 TRMM 3B43 science product are validated by using an independent long-term dataset of historical isohyets. Standard errors of the estimate, root-mean-square errors, and regression coefficients r were slightly and uniformly better with the recalibration from this study when compared with the 3B43 product (mean monthly standard errors of 31 and 40 mm of precipitation and mean r 2 of 0.85 and 0.82, respectively), but the 3B43 product was slightly better in terms of bias estimation (1.02 and 1.00). Despite reasonable doubts that have been expressed in studies of other tropical regions, within the Congo basin the TRMM science product (3B43) performed in a manner that is comparable to the performance of the recalibrated product that is described in this study.

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology↗

USGS2019

A high-resolution 1983-2016 Tmax climate data record based on InfraRed Temperatures and Stations by the Climate Hazard Center

Understanding the dynamics and physics of climate extremes will be a critical challenge for 21st century climate science. Increasing temperatures and saturation vapor pressures may exacerbate heat waves, droughts and precipitation extremes. Yet our ability to monitor temperature variations is limited and declining. Between 1983 and 2016 the number of observations in the CRU Tmax product declined precipitously (5,900→1,000); 1,000 poorly distributed measurements are not enough to resolve regional Tmax variations. Here we show that long (1983-near present) high resolution (0.05°), cloud-screened archives of geostationary satellite Thermal Infrared Red (TIR) observations, when combined with a dense set of ~15,000 station observations, can explain 23, 40, 30, 11% more variance than the CRU over the globe, South America, Africa, India and areas north of 50°N, with even greater levels of improvement over the 2011-2016 period (28, 45, 39, 52, 28%). Described here for the first time, the TIR Tmax algorithm uses sub-daily TIR distributions to screen out cloud contaminated observations, providing accurate (correlation≈0.8) gridded emission Tmax estimates. Blending these gridded fields with ~15,000 station observations provides a seamless, high-resolution source of accurate Tmax estimates that performs well in areas lacking dense in situ observations and even better where in situ observations are available. Cross-validation results indicates that the satellite-only, station-only and combined products all perform accurately (R≈0.8-0.9, mean absolute errors ≈0.8-1.0). Hence, the Climate Hazards center InfraRed Temperature with Stations (CHIRTSmax) data set should provide a valuable resource for climate change studies, climate extreme analyses, and early warning applications.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2025

Determination of provenance soil type using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analyses of Pinus ponderosa ash

This study demonstrates the feasibility of determining soil provenance from tree ash composition using elemental analysis and chemometric techniques. To date, no published studies have applied chemometric approaches to classify ash for provenance determination following forest fires. In this work, Pinus ponderosa ash was analyzed to distinguish samples based on soil type and geographic location. Pinus ponderosa , a widely distributed pine species in the western United States where wildfires are prevalent, was selected as a model system. Needles were collected from trees grown in five distinct soil types across northern Arizona and Colorado, then dry-ashed under controlled conditions. Classification was performed using three preprocessing techniques and five machine learning algorithms, including hierarchical modeling structures to optimize separation. Partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) following a Box-Cox transformation yielded the highest classification accuracy, achieving a prediction kappa value of 0.98 for soil type identification. However, classification performance decreased when distinguishing both soil type and geographic location, indicating that additional variability may influence predictive accuracy in broader applications. These findings highlight the potential of inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and machine learning for post-wildfire forensic analysis and environmental monitoring.

Applied Spectroscopy↗

USGS2020

Validation of laboratory tests for infectious diseases in wild mammals: Review and recommendations

Evaluation of the diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) of tests for infectious diseases in wild animals is challenging, and some of the limitations may affect compliance with the OIE-recommended test validation pathway. We conducted a methodologic review of test validation studies for OIE-listed diseases in wild mammals published between 2008 and 2017 and focused on study design, statistical analysis, and reporting of results. Most published papers addressed Mycobacterium bovis infection in one or more wildlife species. Our review revealed limitations or missing information about sampled animals, identification criteria for positive and negative samples (case definition), representativeness of source and target populations, and species in the study, as well as information identifying animals sampled for calculations of DSe and DSp as naturally infected captive, free-ranging, or experimentally challenged animals. The deficiencies may have reflected omissions in reporting rather than design flaws, although lack of random sampling might have induced bias in estimates of DSe and DSp. We used case studies of validation of tests for hemorrhagic diseases in deer and white-nose syndrome in hibernating bats to demonstrate approaches for validation when new pathogen serotypes or genotypes are detected and diagnostic algorithms are changed, and how purposes of tests evolve together with the evolution of the pathogen after identification. We describe potential benefits of experimental challenge studies for obtaining DSe and DSp estimates, methods to maintain sample integrity, and Bayesian latent class models for statistical analysis. We make recommendations for improvements in future studies of detection test accuracy in wild mammals.

Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation↗

USGS2023

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2024

The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model

US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) and ground motion models (GMMs). The ERF includes numerous additions to the finite-fault model, considers two deformation models, and introduces updated declustering and smoothing algorithms in the gridded background seismicity model. For the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone, megathrust earthquakes occur on an updated structural and segmentation model, and the moment magnitude (M) 8+ rupture and rate model include a logic tree branch that considers slip rates derived from geodetic models of interface coupling. The megathrust model considers multiple models of down-dip width, and magnitudes are computed using newly developed scaling relations. For subduction intraslab events and subduction interface events with M < 7, the 2023 update uses a smoothed seismicity model with rupture depths derived from Slab2. The 2023 model updates GMMs in all tectonic settings using the recently published Next Generation Attenuation Subduction (NGA-Sub) GMMs for subduction interface and intraslab events, and the NGA-West2 GMMs for active crustal settings. Collectively, additions and updates to the Alaska NSHM result in hazard increases across most of south-central Alaska relative to the previous model, published in 2007. These changes are primarily due to the adoption of updated rate models for the large-magnitude interface events and the NGA-Sub GMMs that have much higher aleatory variability (sigma), consistent with global observations, and that include models of epistemic uncertainty.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

An approach for filtering hyperbolically positioned underwater acoustic telemetry data with position precision estimates

Background Telemetry systems that estimate animal positions with hyperbolic positioning algorithms also provide a technology-specific estimate of position precision (e.g., horizontal position error (HPE) for the VEMCO positioning system). Position precision estimates (e.g., dilution of precision for a global positioning system (GPS)) have been used extensively to identify and remove positions with unacceptable measurement error in studies of terrestrial and surfacing aquatic animals such as turtles and seals. Few underwater acoustic telemetry studies report using position precision estimates to filter data in accordance with explicit data quality objectives because the relationship between the precision estimate and measurement error is not understood or not evaluated. A four-step filtering approach which incorporates data-filtering principles developed for GPS tracking of terrestrial animals is demonstrated. HPE was evaluated for its effectiveness to remove uncertain fish positions acquired from a new underwater fine-scale passive acoustic monitoring system. Results Four filtering objectives were identified based on the need for three sequential future analyses and four data quality criteria were developed for evaluating the performance of individual filters (step 1). The unfiltered, baseline position confidence from known-position test tags was considered to determine if filtering was necessary (step 2). An HPE filter cutoff of 8 was selected to meet the four criteria (step 3), and it was determined that one analysis may need to be adjusted for use with this dataset. The data quality objectives, criteria, and filter selection rationale were reported (step 4). Conclusions The use of position precision estimates that reflect the confidence in the positioning process should be considered prior to the use of biological filters that rely on a priori expectations of the subject’s movement capacities and tendencies. Position confidence goals should be determined based upon the needs of the research questions and analysis requirements versus arbitrary selection, in which filters of previous studies are adopted. Data filtering with this approach ensures that data quality is sufficient for the selected analyses and presents the opportunity to adjust or identify a different analysis in the event that the requisite precision was not attained. Ignoring these steps puts a practitioner at risk of reporting errant findings.

Animal Biotelemetry↗

USGS2020

Detecting commonality in multidimensional fish movement histories using sequence analysis

Background Acoustic telemetry, for tracking fish movement histories, is multidimensional capturing both spatial and temporal domains. Oftentimes, analyses of such data are limited to a single domain, one domain nested within the other, or ad hoc approaches that simultaneously consider both domains. Sequence analysis, on the other hand, offers a repeatable statistical framework that uses a sequence alignment algorithm to calculate pairwise dissimilarities among individual movement histories and then hierarchical agglomerative clustering to identify groups of fish with similar movement histories. The objective of this paper is to explore how acoustic telemetry data can be fit to this statistical framework and used to identify commonalities in the movement histories of acoustic-tagged sea lamprey during upstream migration through the St. Clair-Detroit River System. Results Five significant clusters were identified among individual fish. Clusters represented differences in timing of movements (short vs long duration in the Detroit R. and Lake St. Clair); extent of upstream migration (ceased migration in Lake St. Clair, lower St. Clair R., or upper St. Clair R.), and occurrence of fallback (return to Lake St. Clair after ceasing migration in the St. Clair R.). Inferences about sea lamprey distribution and behavior from these results were similar to those reached in a previous analysis using ad-hoc analysis methods. Conclusions The repeatable statistical framework outlined here can be used to group sea lamprey movement histories based on shared sequence characteristics (i.e., chronological order of “states” occupied). Further, this framework is flexible and allows researchers to define a priori the movement aspect (e.g., order, timing, duration) that is important for identifying both common or previously undetected movement histories. As such, we do not view sequence analysis as a panacea but as a useful complement to other modelling approaches (i.e., exploratory tool for informing hypothesis development) or a stand-alone semi-quantitative method for generating a simplified, temporally and spatially structured view of complex acoustic telemetry data and hypothesis testing when observed patterns warrant further investigation.

Michigan↗

USGS2015

Is there a single best estimator? selection of home range estimators using area- under- the-curve

Background Global positioning system (GPS) technology for monitoring home range and movements of wildlife has resulted in prohibitively large sample sizes of locations for traditional estimators of home range. We used area-under-the-curve to explore the fit of 8 estimators of home range to data collected with both GPS and concurrent very high frequency (VHF) technology on a terrestrial mammal, the Florida panther Puma concolor coryi , to evaluate recently developed and traditional estimators. Results Area-under-the-curve was the highest for Florida panthers equipped with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology compared to VHF technology. For our study animal, estimators of home range that incorporated a temporal component to estimation performed better than traditional first- and second-generation estimators. Conclusions Comparisons of fit of home range contours with locations collected would suggest that use of VHF technology is not as accurate as GPS technology to estimate size of home range for large mammals. Estimators of home range collected with GPS technology performed better than those estimated with VHF technology regardless of estimator used. Furthermore, estimators that incorporate a temporal component (third-generation estimators) appeared to be the most reliable regardless of whether kernel-based or Brownian bridge-based algorithms were used and in comparison to first- and second-generation estimators. We defined third-generation estimators of home range as any estimator that incorporates time, space, animal-specific parameters, and habitat. Such estimators would include movement-based kernel density, Brownian bridge movement models, and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models among others that have yet to be evaluated.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Tropical cyclones alter short-term activity patterns of a coastal seabird

Background Mobile organisms in marine environments are expected to modify their behavior in response to external stressors. Among environmental drivers of animal movement are long-term climatic indices influencing organism distribution and short-term meteorological events anticipated to alter acute movement behavior. However, few studies exist documenting the response of vagile species to meteorological anomalies in coastal and marine systems. Methods Here we examined the movements of Eastern brown pelicans ( Pelecanus occidentalis carolinensis ) in the South Atlantic Bight in response to the passage of three separate hurricane events in 2 years. Pelicans ( n = 32) were tracked with GPS satellite transmitters from four colonies in coastal South Carolina, USA, for the entirety of at least one storm event. An Expectation Maximization binary Clustering algorithm was used to discretize pelican behavioral states, which were pooled into ‘active’ versus ‘inactive’ states. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess behavioral state probabilities in relation to changes in barometric pressure and wind velocity. Results Individual pelicans were more likely to remain inactive during tropical cyclone passage compared to baseline conditions generally, although responses varied by hurricane. When inactive, pelicans tended to seek shelter using local geomorphological features along the coastline such as barrier islands and estuarine systems. Conclusions Our telemetry data showed that large subtropical seabirds such as pelicans may mitigate risk associated with spatially-extensive meteorological events by decreasing daily movements. Sheltering may be related to changes in barometric pressure and wind velocity, and represents a strategy common to several other classes of marine vertebrate predators for increasing survival probabilities.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2020

Analysis of movement recursions to detect reproductive events and estimate their fate in central place foragers

Recursive movement patterns have been used to detect behavioral structure within individual movement trajectories in the context of foraging ecology, home-ranging behavior, and predator avoidance. Some animals exhibit movement recursions to locations that are tied to reproductive functions, including nests and dens; while existing literature recognizes that, no method is currently available to explicitly target different types of revisited locations. Moreover, the temporal persistence of recursive movements to a breeding location can carry information regarding the fate of breeding attempts, but it has never been used as a metric to quantify recursive movement patterns. Here, we introduce a method to locate breeding attempts and estimate their fate from GPStracking data of central place foragers. We tested the performance of our method in three bird species differing in breeding ecology (wood stork (Mycteria americana), lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni), Mediterranean gull (Ichthyaetus melanocephalus)) and implemented it in the R package ‘nestR’. Methods: We identified breeding sites based on the analysis of recursive movements within individual tracks. Using trajectories with known breeding attempts, we estimated a set of species-specific criteria for the identification of nest sites, which we further validated using non-reproductive individuals as controls. We then estimated individual nest survival as a binary measure of reproductive fate (success, corresponding to fledging of at least one chick, or failure) from nest-site revisitation histories during breeding attempts, using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach that accounted for temporally variable revisitation patterns, probability of visit detection, and missing data. Results: Across the three species, positive predictive value of the nest-site detection algorithm varied between 87 and 100% and sensitivity between 88 and 92%, and we correctly estimated the fate of 86–100% breeding attempts.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS2022

Agricultural land use shapes dispersal in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

Background Dispersal is a fundamental process to animal population dynamics and gene flow. In white-tailed deer (WTD; Odocoileus virginianus ), dispersal also presents an increasingly relevant risk for the spread of infectious diseases. Across their wide range, WTD dispersal is believed to be driven by a suite of landscape and host behavioral factors, but these can vary by region, season, and sex. Our objectives were to (1) identify dispersal events in Wisconsin WTD and determine drivers of dispersal rates and distances, and (2) determine how landscape features (e.g., rivers, roads) structure deer dispersal paths. Methods We developed an algorithmic approach to detect dispersal events from GPS collar data for 590 juvenile, yearling, and adult WTD. We used statistical models to identify host and landscape drivers of dispersal rates and distances, including the role of agricultural land use, the traversability of the landscape, and potential interactions between deer. We then performed a step selection analysis to determine how landscape features such as agricultural land use, elevation, rivers, and roads affected deer dispersal paths. Results Dispersal predominantly occurred in juvenile males, of which 64.2% dispersed, with dispersal events uncommon in other sex and age classes. Juvenile male dispersal probability was positively associated with the proportion of the natal range that was classified as agricultural land use, but only during the spring. Dispersal distances were typically short (median 5.77 km, range: 1.3–68.3 km), especially in the fall. Further, dispersal distances were positively associated with agricultural land use in potential dispersal paths but negatively associated with the number of proximate deer in the natal range. Lastly, we found that, during dispersal, juvenile males typically avoided agricultural land use but selected for areas near rivers and streams. Conclusion Land use—particularly agricultural—was a key driver of dispersal rates, distances, and paths in Wisconsin WTD. In addition, our results support the importance of deer social environments in shaping dispersal behavior. Our findings reinforce knowledge of dispersal ecology in WTD and how landscape factors—including major rivers, roads, and land-use patterns—structure host gene flow and potential pathogen transmission.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Observatory geoelectric fields induced in a two-layer lithosphere during magnetic storms

We report on the development and validation of an algorithm for estimating geoelectric fields induced in the lithosphere beneath an observatory during a magnetic storm. To accommodate induction in three-dimensional lithospheric electrical conductivity, we analyze a simple nine-parameter model: two horizontal layers, each with uniform electrical conductivity properties given by independent distortion tensors. With Laplace transformation of the induction equations into the complex frequency domain, we obtain a transfer function describing induction of observatory geoelectric fields having frequency-dependent polarization. Upon inverse transformation back to the time domain, the convolution of the corresponding impulse-response function with a geomagnetic time series yields an estimated geoelectric time series. We obtain an optimized set of conductivity parameters using 1-s resolution geomagnetic and geoelectric field data collected at the Kakioka, Japan, observatory for five different intense magnetic storms, including the October 2003 Halloween storm; our estimated geoelectric field accounts for 93% of that measured during the Halloween storm. This work demonstrates the need for detailed modeling of the Earth’s lithospheric conductivity structure and the utility of co-located geomagnetic and geoelectric monitoring.

Kakioka↗

USGS2025

Near real-time indicators of burn severity in the western U.S. from active fire tracking

Background Timely information on wildfire burn severity is critical to assess and mitigate potential post-fire impacts on soils, vegetation, and hillslope stability. Tracking individual fire spread and intensity using satellite active fire data provides a pathway to near real-time (NRT) information. Here, we generated a large database ( n = 2177) of wildfire events in the western United States (U.S.) between 2012 and 2021 using active fire detections from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite and the Fire Events Data Suite (FEDS) algorithm to track large fire growth every 12 h. We integrated fire tracking data with final fire perimeters and burn severity data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) program to evaluate the relationship between burn severity and fire behavior metrics derived from the fire tracking approach, including the rate of fire spread and average fire radiative power (FRP) of fire detections for each 12-h growth increment. Results When stratified by vegetation type, FRP and rate of spread metrics were positively correlated with classified burn severity for each 12-h growth increment, highlighting the potential to rapidly identify areas of high and low severity burning. In forests, integrated measures of FRP over the fire lifetime captured persistent flaming and smoldering that compensated for initial differences between AM (01:30) and PM (13:30) fire detections. Predictive modeling of these relationships based on multiple fire behavior indicators and vegetation type from the LANDFIRE program yielded an accuracy of 78% for the separation of unburned/low and moderate/high burn severity classes. Conclusions These results demonstrate the ability to capture within-fire differences in burn severity using NRT indicators from fire tracking to assist with emergency management and disaster preparedness for post-fire hazards, such as landslides, debris flows, or changes in stream flow and water quality. As VIIRS data are available within minutes of each satellite overpass in the U.S., rapid estimates of burn severity based on fire tracking can be made days or weeks before a large wildfire is fully contained.

western United States↗