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At least 991 records · Page 55Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Assessing allowable take of migratory birds

Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520?212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (rmax) to be in the range 7?14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 x rmax). Based on the point estimate for rmax and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was < 3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be < rmax. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 x rmax may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Validating the performance of occupancy models for estimating habitat use and predicting the distribution of highly-mobile species: A case study using the American black bear

Occupancy models have become a valuable tool for estimating wildlife-habitat relationships and for predicting species distributions. Highly-mobile species often violate the assumption that sampling units are geographically closed shifting the probability of occupancy to be interpreted as the probability of use. We used occupancy models, in conjunction with noninvasive sampling, to estimate habitat use and predict the distribution of a highly-mobile carnivore, the American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) in New Mexico, USA. The top model indicated that black bears use areas with higher primary productivity and fewer roads. The predictive performance of such models is rarely validated with independent data, so we validated our model predictions with 2-independent datasets. We first assessed the correlation between predicted and observed habitat use for 28 telemetry-collared bears in the Jemez Mountains. Predicted habitat use was positively correlated with observed use for all 3 years (2012: ρ = 0.81; 2013: ρ = 0.87; 2014: ρ = 0.90). We then predicted the probability of use within a cell where a bear mortality was documented using 2043 mortality locations from sport harvest, depredation, and vehicle collisions. The probability of habitat use at a mortality location was also positively correlated with observed use by the species (2012: ρ = 0.74; 2013: ρ = 0.89; 2014: ρ = 0.93). Our validation procedure supports the notion that occupancy models can be an effective tool for estimating habitat use and predicting the distribution of highly-mobile species when the assumption of geographic closure has been violated. Our findings may be of interest to studies that are estimating habitat use for highly-mobile species that are secretive or rare, difficult to capture, or expensive to monitor with other more intensive methods.

New Mexico↗

USGS2022

A novel application of hierarchical modelling to decouple sampling artifacts from socio-ecological effects on poaching intensity

Poaching is a global driver of wildlife population decline, including inside protected areas (PAs). Reducing poaching requires an understanding of its cryptic drivers and accurately quantifying poaching scales and intensity. There is little quantification of how poaching is affected by law enforcement intensity (e.g., ranger stations) versus economic factors (e.g., unemployment), while simultaneously accounting for imperfect detection. Using extensive data of poaching events (i.e., seizures) and censuses of nine ungulate species across the PAs and unprotected lands of Iran from 2010 to 2018, we developed a single-visit hierarchical (N-mixture) model to accurately estimate annual poaching of Iranian ungulates and to differentiate between social and ecological effects on annual poaching intensity. We found that poaching detectability increased with numbers of ranger stations. A recent surge in poaching (2013–2018) coincides with rising unemployment rate. We estimated that 19,727 ungulates (95% confidence interval 11,178–36,195) were poached across the country during 2010–2018. Poaching intensity was positively related to unemployment rate, road density, and ungulate abundance. Our simulations demonstrated that the Poisson and Negative binomial N-mixture models had adequate performance when the conditions of Sólymos et al. (2012) were satisfied, in particular, when at least one covariate is unique to both the detection and abundance parts of the model. Overall, we suggest that single-visit models offer unique insights into understanding the link between poaching intensity, economic conditions, and law enforcement in large-scale landscapes while accounting for imperfect detection of poaching events.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2007

A genetic assessment of the recovery units for the mojave population of the desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii

In the 1994 Recovery Plan for the Mojave population of the desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii, the US Fish and Wildlife Service established 6 recovery units by using the best available data on habitat use, behavior, morphology, and genetics. To further assess the validity of the recovery units, we analyzed genetic data by using mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (mtDNA) sequences and nuclear DNA microsatellites. In total, 125 desert tortoises were sampled for mtDNA and 628 for microsatellites from 31 study sites, representing all recovery units and desert regions throughout the Mojave Desert in California and Utah, and the Colorado Desert of California. The mtDNA revealed a great divergence between the Mojave populations west of the Colorado River and those occurring east of the river in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. Some divergence also occurred between northern and southern populations within the Mojave population. The microsatellites indicated a low frequency of private alleles and a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distance among 31 sample sites, which was consistent with an isolation-by-distance population structure. Regional genetic differentiation was complementary to the recovery units in the Recovery Plan. Most allelic frequencies in the recovery units differed. An assignment test correctly placed most individuals to their recovery unit of origin. Of the 6 recovery units, the Northeastern and the Upper Virgin River units showed the greatest differentiation; these units may have been relatively more isolated than other areas and should be managed accordingly. The Western Mojave Recovery Unit, by using the new genetic data, was redefined along regional boundaries into the Western Mojave, Central Mojave, and Southern Mojave recovery units. Large-scale translocations of tortoises and habitat disturbance throughout the 20th century may have contributed to the observed patterns of regional similarity. ?? 2007 Chelonian Research Foundation.

California↗

USGS1994

Breeding patterns and reproductive success of California sea otters

Following commercial exploitation in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations in Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington recovered at 17-20% a year, yet the California population increased at only 5% a year. This slow rate of increase is perplexing, given that unoccupied and apparently favorable habitats occur throughout the sea otter's California range, and higher growth rates occurred among northern sea otter populations. Better knowledge of the demography of the California population is important in understanding these disparate population growth rates. We studied the reproductive biology and behavior of 53 tagged female sea otters from 1985 to 1991 in Monterey Bay, California. During the study, 136 pups were born to these females. Observations of each female enabled us to determine exact or estimated pup birth dates, which we used to calculate lengths of gestation, pup dependency, and reproductive cycle. Seasonal trends in pupping, in the proportion of adult females with pups, and in pup separations from their mothers were relatively uniform throughout the year. The average interval between separation from pup and subsequent birth was 198 days, the interbirth interval was 407 days, and estimated birth rate was 0.90/year for all adult females. For females that pupped annually (did not lose undetected newborns), the average interbirth interval was 342 days, given an estimated birth rate of 1.07/year. Length of the reproductive cycle increased with increasing length of prior pup dependency. However, the interval between separation from pup and subsequent birth was delayed among females that prematurely lost their pups. The average length of dependency for pups that survived to weaning was 166 days, but ranged from 120 to 280 days. The maximum preweaning survival rate was 0.60-0.65, less than values measured or inferred for some Alaskan populations. Most pups that did not survive to weaning were lost within a month of birth. The probability of successfully weaning pups and the length of dependency increased ( P = 0.077) with mothers' ages, thus indicating that reproductive success may increase among females with greater mothering experience. The high preweaning pup mortality we observed probably accounts for much of the relatively slow growth rate of the California sea otter population.

California↗

USGS2017

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes Basin: A report on sediment, water, and fish tissue chemistry collected in 2010-2012

Despite being detected at low levels in surface waters and sediments across the United States, contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes Basin are not well characterized in terms of spatial and temporal occurrence. Additionally, although the detrimental effects of exposure to CECs on fish and wildlife have been documented for many CECs in laboratory studies, we do not adequately understand the implications of the presence of CECs in the environment. Based on limited studies using current environmentally relevant concentrations of chemicals, however, risks to fish and wildlife are evident. As a result, there is an increasing urgency to address data gaps that are vital to resource management decisions. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey, is leading a Great Lakes Basin-wide evaluation of CECs (CEC Project) with the objectives to (a) characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of CECs; (b) evaluate risks to fish and wildlife resources; and (c) develop tools to aid resource managers in detecting, averting, or minimizing the ecological consequences to fish and wildlife that are exposed to CECs. This report addresses objective (a) of the CEC Project, summarizing sediment and water chemistry data collected from 2010 to 2012 and fish liver tissue chemistry data collected in 2012; characterizes the sampling locations with respect to potential sources of CECs in the landscape; and provides an initial interpretation of the variation in CEC concentrations relative to the identified sources. Data collected during the first three years of our study, which included 12 sampling locations and analysis of 134 chemicals, indicate that contaminants were more frequently detected in sediment compared to water. Chemicals classified as alkyphenols, flavors/ fragrances, hormones, PAHs, and sterols had higher average detection frequencies in sediment compared to water, while the opposite was observed for pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and plasticizers/flame retardants. The St. Louis River and Maumee River sampling locations had the most CEC detections in water and sediment, relative to other sites, as well as the largest number of maximum detected concentrations across all sites in the Basin. No consistent temporal CEC occurrence patterns were observed at locations sampled multiple times each day. Most appearances and increases in chemical concentrations in sediments occurred at sites immediately downstream from wastewater treatment plants and at sites with predominantly developed land use. The location with the most observed appearances and increases was the St. Louis River. Perfluorinated compounds were commonly detected in fish liver tissues with detections in 100% of both benthic and pelagic species. The occurrence of these chemicals in liver tissue of benthic and pelagic species was generally similar. Abstract

Great Lakes Basin↗

USGS1978

Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus): A literature survey and status report

It is generally agreed that the genus Odobenus includes only one species, O. rosmarus . At least two subspecies are widely recognized: O. r. rosmarus , the Atlantic walrus, and O. r. divergens , the Pacific walrus. A third nominal subspecies, O. r. laptevi , the Laptev walrus, is designated by some Soviet researchers; and the taxonomic status of the Kara Sea walrus is undetermined. The range and abundance of nearly all walrus stocks have been seriously reduced by intensive human exploitation. The Atlantic walrus, the principal subject of this study, remains plentiful in only three known areas of concentration: northern Hudson Bay and northern Foxe Basin in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and the Thule district of northwest Greenland. This animal is no longer the object of large-scale commercial hunting, but is still subject to heavy subsistence hunting by native groups in some areas. The status of the walrus population in Canada was investigated in the 1950's and is believed to have changed little since that time. There are probably no more than about 10,000 walruses in Canadian waters, virtually all of them in the eastern arctic. The biology, ecology, and exploitation of walruses in the Thule district were studied during the 1940's, and some information is available concerning recent catch levels and hunting practices. The Polar Eskimos of north Greenland continue to organize much of their cultural and economic life around the hunting of walruses, and the species remains abundant in their area, numbering at least a few thousand. The walrus stocks off west Greenland and in the Greenland, Barents, and Kara seas are the most critically depleted. No systematic field investigations of walruses east of Greenland have been made since the Kara Sea and Franz Josef Land populations were studied in the mid-1930's. Opportunistic sighting records and compilations of historical catch information indicate that the herds of many tens of thousands that once inhabited Svalbard, Bear Island, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, and other parts of the Eurasian Arctic have been very nearly extirpated. Measures to curb the international trade in walrus ivory and skins may benefit the Atlantic subspecies in Canada and north Greenland. Enforcement of existing regulations pertaining to hunting by aborigines, and perhaps the imposition of further restrictions on such activities, are necessary if the subspecies is to approach full recovery. Field studies in the northeast Atlantic and off west Greenland would help determine the current status of walruses and provide a better understanding of the requirements for their recovery in these areas. The Laptev walrus seems to have been reduced by overexploitation, but available information, most of it translated from Russian, is inconclusive. This subspecies was thought to number around 4,000 to 5,000 in 1975, and Soviet scientists have remarked on the need for a reduction in hunting pressure and protection of its habitat.

Wildlife Research Report↗

USGS2013

Permeability of roads to movement of scrubland lizards and small mammals

A primary objective of road ecology is to understand and predict how roads affect connectivity of wildlife populations. Road avoidance behavior can fragment populations, whereas lack of road avoidance can result in high mortality due to wildlife-vehicle collisions. Many small animal species focus their activities to particular microhabitats within their larger habitat. We sought to assess how different types of roads affect the movement of small vertebrates and to explore whether responses to roads may be predictable on the basis of animal life history or microhabitat preferences preferences. We tracked the movements of fluorescently marked animals at 24 sites distributed among 3 road types: low-use dirt, low-use secondary paved, and rural 2-lane highway. Most data we collected were on the San Diego pocket mouse ( Chaetodipus fallax ), cactus mouse ( Peromyscus eremicus ), western fence lizard ( Sceloporus occidentalis ), orange-throated whiptail ( Aspidoscelis hyperythra ), Dulzura kangaroo rat ( Dipodomys simulans ) (dirt, secondary paved), and deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) (highway only). San Diego pocket mice and cactus mice moved onto dirt roads but not onto a low-use paved road of similar width or onto the highway, indicating they avoidpaved road substrate. Both lizard species moved onto the dirt and secondary paved roads but avoided the rural 2-lane rural highway, indicating they may avoid noise, vibration, or visual disturbance from a steady flow of traffic. Kangaroo rats did not avoid the dirt or secondary paved roads. Overall, dirt and secondary roads were more permeable to species that prefer to forage or bask in open areas of their habitat, rather than under the cover of rocks or shrubs. However, all study species avoided the rural 2-lane highway. Our results suggest that microhabitat use preferences and road substrate help predict species responses to low-use roads,but roads with heavy traffic may deter movement of a much wider range of small animal species.

California↗

USGS2016

Increased body mass of ducks wintering in California's Central Valley

Waterfowl managers lack the information needed to fully evaluate the biological effects of their habitat conservation programs. We studied body condition of dabbling ducks shot by hunters at public hunting areas throughout the Central Valley of California during 2006–2008 compared with condition of ducks from 1979 to 1993. These time periods coincide with habitat increases due to Central Valley Joint Venture conservation programs and changing agricultural practices; we modeled to ascertain whether body condition differed among waterfowl during these periods. Three dataset comparisons indicate that dabbling duck body mass was greater in 2006–2008 than earlier years and the increase was greater in the Sacramento Valley and Suisun Marsh than in the San Joaquin Valley, differed among species (mallard [ Anas platyrhynchos ], northern pintail [ Anas acuta ], America wigeon [ Anas americana ], green-winged teal [ Anas crecca ], and northern shoveler [ Anas clypeata ]), and was greater in ducks harvested late in the season. Change in body mass also varied by age–sex cohort and month for all 5 species and by September–January rainfall for all except green-winged teal. The random effect of year nested in period, and sometimes interacting with other factors, improved models in many cases. Results indicate that improved habitat conditions in the Central Valley have resulted in increased winter body mass of dabbling ducks, especially those that feed primarily on seeds, and this increase was greater in regions where area of post-harvest flooding of rice and other crops, and wetland area, has increased. Conservation programs that continue to promote post-harvest flooding and other agricultural practices that benefit wintering waterfowl and continue to restore and conserve wetlands would likely help maintain body condition of wintering dabbling ducks in the Central Valley of California.

California↗

USGS2021

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2025

Factors influencing daily nest survival rates of Aleutian terns in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska

The Aleutian tern ( Onychoprion aleuticus ) is a species of high conservation concern in Alaska, USA, owing to large declines at known breeding locations since the 1960s. The small population size and ephemeral behavior of this species have limited the collection of basic biological information and hindered the identification of potential drivers of this decline. Significant unknowns include the factors, and their relative importance, influencing nest survival. To investigate these questions, we estimated daily nest survival (DNS) for 148 nests from 5 breeding colonies during 2017 to 2020 in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska with 105 monitored using remote cameras. We used the nest survival model in program MARK to estimate DNS rates as a function of colony location, year, within-season time trends, vegetation cover and height, and 6 daily weather covariates. Our top model suggested that DNS rates increased with vegetation height, decreased as the season progressed, and included a significant interaction between year and colony. Average nest success (i.e., percent chance that a nest survived to hatch) over the 22-day incubation period varied by colony but was generally very low, averaging 1.2% (95% CI = 0–11%) in 2017–2018 to 14% (95% CI = 0.1–38%) in 2019–2020 across all colonies. The importance of year in the model suggests that a large-scale annual driver, like food availability, may have played an important role in this species' breeding success. A severe marine heatwave was present in the Gulf of Alaska during 2014–2016 and our results suggest that some effects of this anomalous event, such as reduced prey availability, lingered even after temperatures returned to normal. Additionally, the variation in DNS across colony locations indicated that local factors, such as predation pressure, may also drive significant variation in Aleutian tern productivity. These findings suggest that a combination of local factors and climate change may be important drivers of the >90% decline in Alaska's breeding population of Aleutian terns.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Impact of wildfire on levels of mercury in forested watershed systems: Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

Atmospheric deposition of mercury to remote lakes in mid-continental and eastern North America has increased approximately threefold since the mid-1800s (Swain and others, 1992; Fitzgerald and others, 1998; Engstrom and others, 2007). As a result, concerns for human and wildlife health related to mercury contamination have become widespread. Despite an apparent recent decline in atmospheric deposition of mercury in many areas of the Upper Midwest (Engstrom and Swain, 1997; Engstrom and others, 2007), lakes in which fish contain levels of mercury deemed unacceptable for human consumption and possibly unacceptable for fish-consuming wildlife are being detected with increasing frequency. In northern Minnesota, Voyageurs National Park (VNP) (fig. 1) protects a series of southern boreal lakes and wetlands situated on bedrock of the Precambrian Canadian Shield. Mercury contamination has become a significant resource issue within VNP as high concentrations of mercury in loons, bald eagle eaglets, grebes, northern pike, and other species of wildlife and fish have been found. The two most mercury-contaminated lakes in Minnesota, measured as methylmercury in northern pike ( Esox lucius ), are in VNP. Recent multidisciplinary U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research demonstrated that the bulk of the mercury in lake waters, soils, and fish in VNP results from atmospheric deposition (Wiener and others, 2006). The study by Wiener and others (2006) showed that the spatial distribution of mercury in watershed soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) within the Park was highly variable. The majority of factors correlated for this earlier study suggested that mercury concentrations in lake waters and age-1 yellow perch reflected the influence of ecosystem processes that affected within-lake microbial production and abundance of methylmercury (Wiener and others, 2006), while the distribution of mercury in watershed soils seemed to be partially dependent on forest disturbance, especially the historic forest fire pattern (Woodruff and Cannon, 2002). Forest fire has an essential role in the forest ecosystems of VNP (Heinselman, 1996). Because resource and land managers need to integrate both natural wildfire and prescribed fire in management plans, the potential influence of fire on an element as sensitive to the environment as mercury becomes a critical part of their decisionmaking. A number of recent studies have shown that while fire does have a significant impact on mercury at the landscape level, the observed effects of fire on aquatic environments are highly variable and unpredictable (Caldwell and others, 2000; Garcia and Carrigan, 2000; Kelly and others, 2006; Nelson and others, 2007). Caldwell and others (2000) described an increase in methylmercury in reservoir sediments resulting from mobilization and transport of charred vegetative matter following a fire in New Mexico. Krabbenhoft and Fink (2000) attributed increases in total mercury concentrations in young-of-the-year fish in the Florida Everglades to release of mercury resulting from peat oxidation following fires. A fivefold increase in whole-body mercury accumulation by rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) following a fire in Alberta, Canada, apparently resulted from increased nutrient concentrations that enhanced productivity and restructured the food web of a lake within the fire’s burn footprint (Kelly and others, 2006). For this study, we determined the short-term effects of forest fire on mercury concentrations in terrestrial and aquatic environments in VNP by comparing and contrasting mercury concentrations in forest soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch for a burned watershed and an adjacent lake, with similar samples from watersheds and lakes with no fire activity (control watersheds and lakes). The concentration of total mercury in whole, 1-year-old yellow perch serves as a good biological indicator for monitoring trends in methylmercury concentrations in food webs of lakes in North America (Wiener and others, 2007). With a limited gape, age-1 yellow perch that hatched the previous year and resided in a lake for 1 year feed largely on zooplankton and small benthic invertebrates. Thus, age-1 yellow perch provide a baseline for methylmercury concentrations for individual lakes that can be compared across spatial areas. The nine appendixes that accompany this report contain the complete datasets for soils, lake waters, and age-1 yellow perch collected for this study. This report uses data from these three media to provide a framework for evaluating short-term effects of fire on mercury in forested soils and possible effects of the mobilization of mercury from soils on lake water quality and aquatic health.

Minnesota↗

USGS2025

Host responses and viral traits interact to shape the impacts of climate warming on highly pathogenic avian influenza in migratory waterfowl

Emerging infectious diseases pose threats to wildlife populations, as exemplified by recent outbreaks of avian influenza viruses in wild birds. Climate change can affect infection dynamics in wildlife through direct effects on pathogens (e.g., environmental decay rates) and changes to host ecology, including shifting migration patterns. Here, we adapt an existing mechanistic model that couples migration and infection to study how traits of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses contribute to HPAI outcomes in migratory waterfowl, then apply this model to explore potential impacts of climate change on HPAI dynamics. We find that the simulated impacts of HPAI on the host population under baseline climate conditions varied from no impact to 100% mortality, depending on viral traits. In most cases, traits related to transmission (i.e., contact rates, shedding rates) were more important for HPAI establishment probability, infection prevalence, and mortality than were other viral traits (e.g., environmental temperature sensitivity, cross-protective immunity). We then simulated the effects of climate change (i.e., altered temperature regimes) on HPAI dynamics both via viral environmental decay and via changes in bird migration phenology. In these simulations, we found that a 9-day advancement in spring migration timing increased the duration of HPAI outbreaks by increasing time birds spent at their breeding grounds, leading to higher mortality and fewer infections. In contrast, increased viral decay in warmer years had a smaller, but opposite impact. These patterns depended on the primary transmission mode of HPAI (i.e., direct vs. environmental) and its sensitivity to environmental temperatures. Together, these results suggest that climate change is likely to increase the impacts of HPAI on waterfowl populations if HPAI relies strongly on direct transmission and birds advance their spring migration. Further integrating host-viral co-evolution and other climatic changes (e.g., salinity, humidity) could provide more precise predictions of how HPAI dynamics could change in the future.

Alaska, California, Oregon↗

USGS2022

Manatee population traits elucidated through photo-identification

Data on the demography and distribution of wildlife populations are important for informing conservation and management decisions; however, determination of life history traits and population trends often are elusive. All four extant species in the order Sirenia are deemed vulnerable to extinction; therefore, determining the demography and distribution for populations worldwide is crucial. Aerial surveys, radio-tagging and tracking, genetic sampling and analyses, health assessments, carcass examination, and photographic documentation are all techniques used to study sirenian populations. A 40 +-year computer-aided catalog of images and demography data collected on Florida manatees enables searches of individuals by descriptions of feature (scar) types and has enabled estimates of annual survival and reproductive rates, documented extra-limital movements, and advanced modeling designs. Photography is discussed as a method for the documentation of unique and acquired features specifically on Florida manatees. By means of these features, individual Florida manatees have been re-identified as far from their established range as Cape Cod, Massachusetts, Houston, Texas, and in Cuba, The Bahamas, and Mexico. The length of gestation (11–13 months) and calf dependency (1–3 years), and potential longevity in the wild (> 50 years), have been verified. To meet the challenge of an increasing number of images collected with the advent of digital photography, there has been an increasing interest and potential for new techniques to assist with individual identification. Several researchers are utilizing drones and artificial intelligence to find, photograph, and streamline the individual identification of sirenians as well as other marine mammal species. New techniques have potential to simplify the photographic identification of Florida manatees. Photographic documentation could be a model for demographic and distribution research of sirenian populations outside of Florida and as a tool to monitor the viability of sirenian populations, particularly as threats emerge due to anthropogenic pressures and global climate change.

Mammalian Biology↗

USGS2020

Wildfire and the ecological niche: Diminishing habitat suitability for an indicator species within semi‐arid ecosystems

Globally accelerating frequency and extent of wildfire threatens the persistence of specialist wildlife species through direct loss of habitat and indirect facilitation of exotic invasive species. Habitat specialists may be especially prone to rapidly changing environmental conditions because their ability to adapt lags behind the rate of habitat alteration. As a result, these populations may become increasingly susceptible to ecological traps by returning to suboptimal breeding habitats that were dramatically altered by disturbance. We demonstrate a multistage modeling approach that integrates habitat selection and survival during the key nesting life‐stage of a bird species of high conservation concern, the greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage‐grouse). We applied these spatially explicit models to a spatiotemporally robust dataset of sage‐grouse nest locations and fates across wildfire‐altered sagebrush ecosystems of the Great Basin ecoregion, western United States. Female sage‐grouse exhibited intricate habitat selection patterns that varied across regional gradients of ecological productivity among sagebrush communities, but often selected nest sites that disproportionately resulted in nest failure. For example, 23% of nests occurred in wildfire‐affected habitats characterized by reduced sagebrush cover and greater composition of invasive annual grasses. We found survival of nests was negatively associated with wildfire‐affected areas, but positively associated with higher elevations with increased ruggedness and overall shrub cover. Strong site fidelity likely drove sage‐grouse to continue nesting in habitats degraded by wildfire. Hence, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire may contribute disproportionately to reduced reproductive success by creating ecological traps that act as population sinks. Identifying such habitat mismatches between selection and survival facilitates deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving reduced geographic niche space and population decline at broad spatiotemporal scales, while guiding management actions to areas that would be most beneficial to the species.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2003

Aquatic assemblages and their relation to temperature variables of least-disturbed streams in the Salmon River basin, central Idaho, 2001

In the late 1990s, Idaho’s established stream temperature criteria for the protection of coldwater biota and salmonid spawning were considered inadequate because the criteria did not agree with observed biological conditions in many instances and did not allow for variability in environmental condition or species diversity across a broad area such as the entire State of Idaho. In 2001, benthic invertebrate and fish assemblages in 34 least-disturbed streams in the Salmon River Basin, central Idaho, were evaluated in relation to stream temperature and other environmental variables. The Salmon River Basin retains watersheds that are minimally affected by human activities. These “natural” stream conditions provide a basis for deriving attainable stream temperatures that can be used to set new, and revise existing, water-quality criteria for stream habitats affected by human activities. During July through September 2001, data were collected to document the thermal regime of least-disturbed streams, characterize the distribution of aquatic biota at streams representing a gradient of temperature, and describe the relations between environmental variables and benthic invertebrate and fish assemblages. Nine stream temperature metrics were compared with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s criterion of 10 ° C (degrees Celsius) for bull trout spawning and juvenile rearing. The maximum weekly-maximum temperature at all 33 sites where temperature data were available exceeded this criterion. The maximum daily-maximum temperature (MDMT) at 30 of the sites exceeded the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (IDEQ) criterion of 13.0 ° C for the protection of salmonid spawning; and the maximum daily-average temperature at all 33 sites exceeded the 9.0 ° C criterion for the protection of salmonid spawning. The thermal regime at most sites did not exceed the IDEQ criteria for the protection of coldwater biota. Nine environmental variables—water-surface gradient, discharge, wetted channel width, width:depth ratio, aspect, total seasonal thermal input, open canopy, riparian canopy density, and elevation were selected for correlation with the nine stream temperature metrics. Elevation showed the strongest inverse correlation with the stream temperature metrics. Two hundred and one benthic invertebrate taxa from the 34 sampling sites were identified. The most abundant taxa were Baetis tricaudatus , Oligochaeta, Tvetenia bavarica gr., Acari, Rhithrogena , Cinygmula , Heterlimnius , Micropsectra , Eukiefferiella devonica gr., Drunella doddsi , and Cricotopus . Of the 201 benthic invertebrate taxa collected during this study, 57 taxa (present at a minimum of 5 sampling sites) were significantly correlated with one or more of the stream temperature metrics. Among the invertebrate taxa collected, 32 were identified as coldwater taxa. Of the coldwater taxa collected, Zapada oregonensis gr. showed the strongest inverse correlation with the stream temperature metrics and was collected at sites where maximum weekly-maximum temperature (based on date of sample and 6 days prior) ranged from 11.3 ° to 18.5 °C. Ten species of fish in the families Salmonidae, Cottidae, and Cyprinidae were collected. Two species (bull trout and chinook salmon) listed as threatened under the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Endangered Species Act were collected. Among all species, bull trout showed the strongest inverse correlation between relative fish abundance and stream temperature. Bull trout and juvenile bull trout densities were inversely correlated with stream temperature. The probability of occurrence of juvenile bull trout was significantly correlated with MDMT on the basis of results from a logistic regression model developed during this study. However, this model differed from a similar model developed by the U.S. Forest Service on the basis of regional data collected in the Pacific Northwest. The regression model based on data collected during this study showed higher probabilities of occurrence of bull trout at colder stream temperatures (10 ° to 15 ° C) and lower probabilities of occurrence at warmer stream temperatures (16 ° to 21 ° C) than did the model based on regional data. The model comparisons suggest that regional or local differences need to be considered when deriving stream temperature criteria.

Idaho↗

USGS1986

This week?s Citation Classic: 'Stickel, L. F. A comparison of certain methods of measuring ranges of small mammals. J. Mammalogy 35: 1-15, 1954.'

During my first employment as a junior biologist conducting food habits analyses at the Patuxent Research Refuge (now Patuxent Wildlife Research Center) of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the first station director, Arnold L. Nelson, gave each staff biologist the opportunity to spend a little time conducting field studies on the 2,600-acre research area. These studies were to help in ecological evaluation of the area, but also, no doubt, functioned as a morale builder for biologists daily engaged in difficult, demanding and confining laboratory work. I undertook to measure the population density of small mammals in different habitats. The state-of-the-art methods recommended to me and prevalent in the literature worried me, especially after preliminary field work. Reading the classic, paper by W.H. Burt [Terrioriality and home range concepts as applied to mammals. J. Mammalogy 24:346-352, 1943] was a turning point for me in seeing that knowledge of home-range size was the key to measuring population density. My first papers employed these concepts in field evaluations. However, they could give-only limited attention to the question of how home ranges could be measured. Furthermore, the importance of knowledge of the home range to habitat evaluation and to understanding animal behavior was becoming increasingly apparent. Advocacy of many different methods of measuring home ranges appeared in the literature. It did not seem possible to evaluate them objectively. It occurred to me that artificial populations could be used to help in understanding the mechanisms of measuring home ranges. The effects of random trap-visiting, bias toward central traps, trap-spacing, range shape, and other factors could be considered. So grids of traps were inked onto oversize graph paper, and simulated ranges were cut from plastic to be tossed as randomly as possible on the trap-grids. It was a slow, laborious job. Analysis showed that random captures in artificial populations produced patterns that were similar in many ways to those observed in field studies; the necessity of appropriate trap-spacing in relation to range size became obvious. Some commonly used methods of expressing range size proved to be clearly superior to others. However, the artificial populations could not fully simulate actual populations, where use patterns changed as conditions changed and the ?boundaries? of ranges tended to shift continuously or with time. Progress was made, but problems remained. I suspect that the reasons the paper has been cited frequently rest on the continuing interest in home-range behavior and the continuing difficulty in field evaluations, despite the many advances in observational methodology. The sophisticated techniques that became possible with the use of computers [R.I. Jennrich and F.B. Turner. Measurement of non-circular home range. J. Theor. Biol 23:227-237, 1969] also presented new possibilities for analysis and understanding of home-range characteristics and created a resurgence of interest in home-range behavior and its biological significance.

Current Contents / Agriculture, Biology & Environm↗

USGS2026

Nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for species undergoing environmental stressors

A fundamental task in ecological statistics is to estimate abundance and growth rate distributions from wildlife monitoring data to inform conservation management. Modeling time series of wildlife populations presents a number of challenges from both statistical and ecological perspectives, including discreteness; lack of replication; nonstationarity; and observation, demographic, and other phenomenological processes. Nonstationary dynamics are often exhibited by populations undergoing environmental stressors. Models must account for these characteristics to produce reliable estimates of abundance and trends, yet estimation can be challenging with unreplicated data. We propose nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for populations undergoing environmental stressors. A reduced growth rate model matches the complexity of the unreplicated count data, and a fecundity bound on growth rate distributions allows the separation of processes affecting growth rates like environmental stressors from those affecting abundance external to growth rates like migration. NDSSMs allow for the embedding of nonstationary model components, and we explore the use of changepoints, volatility clustering, and migration processes. We apply the proposed nonstationary models in case studies of herons affected by predator/competitor reestablishment and three bat species affected by a fungal pathogen causing white-nose syndrome. Nonstationary models outperform stationary models and generalized linear mixed effects models according to model scoring and visual inspection of predictions, and provide estimates more consistent with published values. Incorporating migration improves model fit universally, even with approximate one-way immigration, most likely because populations are extirpated, recolonized, and increase multiple-fold over the upper bound set by species fecundity. In addition, estimates of the timing and severity of the environmental stressor differed for models with migration. Including nonstationary and demographic components in a fecundity-bounded growth rate model improves inference and benefits interpretability of hyperparameters. In turn, this adjusts uncertainties in predictions of abundance and growth rates over time, providing the ingredients needed for informed conservation analysis and for directing future monitoring of at-risk species.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗