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USGS2024

Second guessing the maximum likelihood estimator values for bat surveys

T The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service allows acoustical surveys and automated identification software to determine the presence of the endangered northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) and Indiana bat ( Myotis sodalis ). Analytical software is required to assess presence probability on a site-night basis using a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) that accounts for interspecific bat misclassification rates. The current standard for occupancy is a returned MLE P-value < 0.05 at the nightly level irrespective of the number of files identified as either northern long-eared bats or Indiana bats. These MLE P-values can vary based on presence of other bat species with similar calls and the relative proportions of all species recorded. Accordingly, there is concern that with few nightly northern long-eared bat or Indiana bat recordings or the presence of large numbers of high-frequency bats, false-negative findings from a swamping effect could result. Using data collected in 2020–2021 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to set nationwide acoustic monitoring guidelines, we examined the relationship of returned software MLE P-values from 4873 site-nights of acoustic detector data relative to nightly counts of northern long-eared bats and Indiana bats, overall counts of other high-frequency bats, and habitat cover type. For both northern long-eared bats and Indiana bats, nights with one or more echolocation pass files identified as either species but above the MLE P-value threshold largely occurred where nightly counts of the target species was <15 and their proportion to the count of high-frequency bat species was low. We followed this analysis with a simulation using a known call library and observed similar patterns. Accordingly, with few nightly cholocation passes, post-hoc visual assessment following automated software identification easily could be undertaken. Evidence of swamping by other high-frequency species causing positive file identification creating false-negative or false-positives of northern long-eared bats and Indiana bats was not apparent at nightly counts of either species > 10.

Alabama, Arkansas, Illinoise, Indiana, Kentucky, M↗

USGS2023

Maximum likelihood estimator and nightly acoustic count values as weight of evidence of bat maternity activity

Since the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America, several bat species have shown precipitous declines in abundance and distribution. With lower netting detection probabilities for the currently threatened but proposed endangered northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) and endangered Indiana bats ( Myotis sodalis ), determination of presence or absence for regulatory clearance often has shifted to the use of acoustic sur- veys. However, acoustic surveys are unable to differentiate between non-reproductive individuals versus a maternity colony. We used recorded nightly echolocation pass counts of bat species-specific probabilities with maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) scores to determine thresholds by cover type and reproductive period whereby the potential for northern long-eared bat or Indiana bat maternity colonies occurs. Where nightly MLE P- values were <0.05, mean predicted nightly pass counts were significantly higher in areas of known northern long-eared bat and Indiana bat maternity colonies versus sites that were in either species’ distribution but with no maternity activity known. Nightly pass counts (MLE P < 0.05) were higher for sites with observed maternity activity for both bat species across forest, forest-field edge, and riparian areas versus sites where no maternity activity was known. For northern long-eared bats, nightly pass counts were highest in the juvenile volancy period (after 15 July) whereas, for Indiana bats, nightly pass counts were highest in the lactation period (16 June to 15 July). Except for edge conditions for northern long-eared bats, a MLE P < 0.05 combined with nightly pass counts above thresholds developed from surveys at known maternity colony sites for both species may indicate potential presence of a maternity colony locally and provide a tool to more efficiently use targeted mist-netting for further determination.

eastern United States↗

USGS2024

Second guessing the maximum likelihood estimator values for bat surveys.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service allows acoustical surveys and automated identification software to determine the presence of the endangered northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) and Indiana bat ( Myotis sodalis ). Analytical software is required to assess presence probability on a site-night basis using a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) that accounts for interspecific bat misclassification rates. The current standard for occupancy is a returned MLE P-value < 0.05 at the nightly level irrespective of the number of files identified as either northern long-eared bats or Indiana bats. These MLE P-values can vary based on presence of other bat species with similar calls and the relative proportions of all species recorded. Accordingly, there is concern that with few nightly northern long-eared bat or Indiana bat recordings or the presence of large numbers of high-frequency bats, false-negative findings from a swamping effect could result. Using data collected in 2020–2021 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to set nationwide acoustic monitoring guidelines, we examined the relationship of returned software MLE P-values from 4873 site-nights of acoustic detector data relative to nightly counts of northern long-eared bats and Indiana bats, overall counts of other high-frequency bats, and habitat cover type. For both northern long-eared bats and Indiana bats, nights with one or more echolocation pass files identified as either species but above the MLE P-value threshold largely occurred where nightly counts of the target species was <15 and their proportion to the count of high-frequency bat species was low. We followed this analysis with a simulation using a known call library and observed similar patterns. Accordingly, with few nightly cholocation passes, post-hoc visual assessment following automated software identification easily could be undertaken. Evidence of swamping by other high-frequency species causing positive file identification creating false-negative or false-positives of northern long-eared bats and Indiana bats was not apparent at nightly counts of either species > 10.

Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mi↗

USGS1998

Survival of female northern pintails wintering in southwestern Louisiana

The North American breeding population of northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) has reached previously unprecedented low numbers 4 times since 1983. Because pintails show high fidelity to wintering areas, regional survival estimates and identification of factors influencing survival are needed to guide management of wintering pintails. We used radiotelemetry to estimate survival rates of female pintails wintering in southwestern Louisiana. We tested for variation in survival and hunting mortality rates in relation to age (immature or adult), winter (1990-91, 1991-92, 1992-93), time period (prehunting season, first hunting season, time between split hunting seasons, second hunting season, posthunting season), body condition (body mass when released, adjusted for body size), and region (southwestern Louisiana or elsewhere on the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast or Mississippi Alluvial Valley). Within southwestern Louisiana, the 147-day (5 Oct-28 Feb) survival rate of adults (0.714 ± 0.045; x̅ ± SE) was greater ( P = 0.02) than that of immatures (0.550 ± 0.068), primarily because immatures had higher hunting mortality. Female survival was lower ( P s < 0.01) during hunting than during nonhunting seasons but did not differ between first and second hunting seasons ( P = 0.58) or among non-hunting seasons ( P s >0.25). Survival did not differ in relation to winter or condition ( P s > 0.12). Hunting mortality did not differ ( P s > 0.13) in relation to winter, condition, or region, but hunting mortality of immatures (0.287 ± 0.046) was greater ( P < 0.001) than that of adults (0.130 ± 0.025). Despite conservative hunting regulations (30-day seasons and 1 pintail daily), hunting mortality rates of pintails in southwestern Louisiana were high. Pintails in southwestern Louisiana rely on a small number of key refuges for protection but feed almost exclusively in privately owned agricultural fields. If increased winter survival of female pintails in southwestern Louisiana is desired, we recommend that managers increase food available.

Louisiana↗

USGS2005

Trematodes associated with mangrove habitat in Puerto Rican salt marshes

Batillaria minima is a common snail in the coastal estuaries of Puerto Rico. This snail is host to a variety of trematodes, the most common being Cercaria caribbea XXXI, a microphallid species that uses crabs as second intermediate hosts. The prevalence of infection was higher (7.1%) near mangroves than on mudflats away from mangroves (1.4%). Similarly, there was a significant positive association between the proportion of a site covered with mangroves and the prevalence of the microphallid. The association between mangroves and higher trematode prevalence is most likely because birds use mangroves as perch sites and this results in local transmission to snails.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2010

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0·29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r 2 = 0·14-0·31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r 2 = 0·13-0·50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2008

Stress tolerance in plants via habitat-adapted symbiosis

We demonstrate that native grass species from coastal and geothermal habitats require symbiotic fungal endophytes for salt and heat tolerance, respectively. Symbiotically conferred stress tolerance is a habitat-specific phenomenon with geothermal endophytes conferring heat but not salt tolerance, and coastal endophytes conferring salt but not heat tolerance. The same fungal species isolated from plants in habitats devoid of salt or heat stress did not confer these stress tolerances. Moreover, fungal endophytes from agricultural crops conferred disease resistance and not salt or heat tolerance. We define habitat-specific, symbiotically-conferred stress tolerance as habitat-adapted symbiosis and hypothesize that it is responsible for the establishment of plants in high-stress habitats. The agricultural, coastal and geothermal plant endophytes also colonized tomato (a model eudicot) and conferred disease, salt and heat tolerance, respectively. In addition, the coastal plant endophyte colonized rice (a model monocot) and conferred salt tolerance. These endophytes have a broad host range encompassing both monocots and eudicots. Interestingly, the endophytes also conferred drought tolerance to plants regardless of the habitat of origin. Abiotic stress tolerance correlated either with a decrease in water consumption or reactive oxygen sensitivity/generation but not to increased osmolyte production. The ability of fungal endophytes to confer stress tolerance to plants may provide a novel strategy for mitigating the impacts of global climate change on agricultural and native plant communities.The ISME Journal (2008) 2, 404-416; doi:10.1038/ismej.2007.106; published online 7 February 2008. ?? 2008 International Society for Microbial Ecology All rights reserved.

ISME Journal↗

USGS2020

Winter versus summer habitat selection in a threatened ground squirrel

Hibernation is a strategy many species employ to survive periods of thermal stress or resource shortage (e.g., harsh thermal conditions, food limitations) and habitat requirements of hibernating species may differ between summer (the active season) and winter (during hibernation). Accounting for seasonal differences in habitat affinities will help ensure that management actions are more beneficial and land-use policies are more appropriate. The northern Idaho ground squirrel ( Urocitellus brunneus ) is a federally listed threatened species that is in decline and hibernates for approximately 8 months per year. We collared northern Idaho ground squirrels in Adams County, Idaho from 2013–2017. The majority of northern Idaho ground squirrels we collared selected hibernacula outside of the areas they used during the active season. Furthermore, habitat features of hibernacula locations differed from habitat features of active-season areas. Hibernacula locations had greater canopy closure compared to active-season locations (36.9% and 7.0% canopy closure, respectively) and hibernaculum habitat features (particularly distance to nearest log) influenced overwinter survival. Our results suggest that recovery efforts for northern Idaho ground squirrels should include protection and management for the full range of habitat conditions used throughout summer and winter. More broadly, we emphasize the need to identify and protect habitat during all seasons because habitat requirements can differ substantially during different portions of an animal's annual cycle and effective conservation will require management of year-round habitat needs.

Idaho↗

USGS1979

Vector analysis of chemical variation in the lavas of Parícutin volcano, Mexico

Compositional variations in the lavas of Parícutin volcano, Mexico, have been examined by an extended method of Q-mode factor analysis. Each sample composition is treated as a vector projected from an original eight-dimensional space into a vector system of three dimensions. The compositions represented by the vectors after projection are closely similar to the original compositions except for Na2O and Fe2O3. The vectors in the three-dimensional system cluster about three different planes that represent three stages of compositional change in the Parícutin lavas. Because chemical data on the compositions of the minerals in the lavas are presently lacking, interpretations of the mineral phases that may have been involved in fractional crystallization are based on CIPW norm calculations. Changes during the first stage are attributed largely to the fractional crystallization of plagioclase and olivine. Changes during the second stage can be explained by the separation of plagioclase and pyroxene. Changes during the final stage may have resulted mostly from the assimilation of a granitic material, as previously proposed by R. E. Wilcox.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

USGS2009

Rayleigh-wave mode separation by high-resolution linear radon transform

Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method is an effective tool for obtaining vertical shear wave profiles from a single non-invasive measurement. One key step of the MASW method is generation of a dispersion image and extraction of a reliable dispersion curve from raw multichannel shot records. Because different Rayleigh-wave modes normally interfere with each other in the time and space domain, it is necessary to perform mode separation and reconstruction to increase the accuracy of phase velocities determined from a dispersion image. In this paper, we demonstrate the effectiveness of high-resolution linear Radon transform (LRT) as a means of separating and reconstructing multimode, dispersive Rayleigh-wave energy. We first introduce high-resolution LRT methods and Rayleigh-wave mode separation using high-resolution LRT. Next, we use synthetic data and a real-world example to demonstrate the effectiveness of Rayleigh-wave mode separation using high-resolution LRT. Our synthetic and real-world results demonstrate that (1) high-resolution LRT successfully separates and reconstructs multimode dispersive Rayleigh-wave energy with high resolution allowing the multimode energy to be more accurately determined. The horizontal resolution of the Rayleigh-wave method can be increased by extraction of dispersion curves from a pair of traces in the mode-separated shot gather and (2) multimode separation and reconstruction expand the usable frequency range of higher mode dispersive energy, which increases the depth of investigation and provides a means for accurately determining cut-off frequencies. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS1995

Survival of adult female northern pintails in the Sacramento Valley, California

North American populations of northern pintails (Anas acuta) declined between 1979 and the early 1990s. To determine if low survival during winter contributed to declines, we estimated winter (last week of Aug-Feb 1987-90) survival for 190 adult (after hatching yr [AHY]) female radio-tagged pintails in late summer in Sacramento Valley (SACV), California. Survival rates did not vary by winter ( P = 0.808), among preseason, hunting season, or postseason intervals ( P = 0.579), or by body mass at time of capture ( P = 0.127). Premolt (wing) pintails ( n = 10) tended to survive at a lower rate (0.622, SE = 0.178) than pintails that had already replaced flight feathers (0.887, SE = 0.030) ( P = 0.091). The pooled survival (all years) estimate for the 180-day winter was 0.874 (SE = 0.031). Hunting mortality rate (0.041-0.087) and nonhunting mortality rate (0.013-0.076) did not differ among years ( P = 0.332) or within years (all P > 0.149). Legal hunting ( n = 7), predation ( n = 4), cholera ( n = 2), illegal shooting ( n = 2), botulism ( n = 1), and unknown cause ( n = 1) accounted for all mortality. Nonwintering survival (annu. survival/winter survival = 0.748) was lower than winter survival; thus, if gains in annual survival are desired for this population, managers should first examine the breeding-migration period for opportunities to achieve increases.

California↗

USGS2011

Restoration of the fire-grazing interaction in Artemisia filifolia shrubland of the Southern Great Plains, North America

1. &ensp;Patterns of landscape heterogeneity are crucial to the maintenance of biodiversity in shrublands and grasslands, yet management practices in these ecosystems typically seek to homogenize landscapes. Furthermore, there is limited understanding of how the interaction of ecological processes, such as fire and grazing, affects patterns of heterogeneity at different spatial scales. 2. &ensp;We conducted research in Artemisia filifolia (Asteraceae) shrublands located in the southern Great Plains of North America to determine the effect of restoring the fire–grazing interaction on vegetation structure. Data were collected for 3 years in replicated pastures grazed by cattle Bos taurus where the fire–grazing interaction had been restored (fire and grazing = treatment pastures) and in pastures that were grazed but remained unburned (grazing only, no fire = control pastures). The effect of the fire–grazing interaction on heterogeneity (variance) of vegetation structure was assessed at scales from 12·5 m 2 to 609 ha. 3. &ensp;Most measurements of vegetation structure within treatment pastures differed from control pastures for 1–3 years after being burned but were thereafter similar to the values found in unburned control pastures. 4. &ensp;Treatment pastures were characterized by a lower amount of total heterogeneity and a lower amount of heterogeneity through time. 5. &ensp;Heterogeneity of vegetation structure tended to decrease as the scale of measurement increased in both treatment and control pastures. There was deviation from this trend, however, in the treatment pastures that exhibited much higher heterogeneity at the patch scale (mean patch size = 202 ha) of measurement, the scale at which patch fires were conducted. 6. Synthesis and applications .&ensp;Vegetation structure in A. filifolia shrublands of our study was readily altered by the fire–grazing interaction but also demonstrated substantial resilience to these effects. The fire–grazing interaction also changed the total amount of heterogeneity characterizing this system, the scale at which heterogeneity in this system was expressed and the amount of heterogeneity expressed through time. Land managers seeking to impose a shifting mosaic of heterogeneity on this vegetation type can do so by restoring the fire–grazing interaction with potential conservation benefits similar to what has been achieved in other ecosystems where historic cycles of disturbance and rest have been restored.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

Structure of the Koyna-Warna Seismic Zone, Maharashtra, India: A possible model for large induced earthquakes elsewhere

The Koyna-Warna area of India is one of the best worldwide examples of reservoir-induced seismicity, with the distinction of having generated the largest known induced earthquake (M6.3 on 10 December 1967) and persistent moderate-magnitude (>M5) events for nearly 50 years. Yet, the fault structure and tectonic setting that has accommodated the induced seismicity is poorly known, in part because the seismic events occur beneath a thick sequence of basalt layers. On the basis of the alignment of earthquake epicenters over an ~50 year period, lateral variations in focal mechanisms, upper-crustal tomographic velocity images, geophysical data (aeromagnetic, gravity, and magnetotelluric), geomorphic data, and correlation with similar structures elsewhere, we suggest that the Koyna-Warna area lies within a right step between northwest trending, right-lateral faults. The sub-basalt basement may form a local structural depression (pull-apart basin) caused by extension within the step-over zone between the right-lateral faults. Our postulated model accounts for the observed pattern of normal faulting in a region that is dominated by north-south directed compression. The right-lateral faults extend well beyond the immediate Koyna-Warna area, possibly suggesting a more extensive zone of seismic hazards for the central India area. Induced seismic events have been observed many places worldwide, but relatively large-magnitude induced events are less common because critically stressed, preexisting structures are a necessary component. We suggest that releasing bends and fault step-overs like those we postulate for the Koyna-Warna area may serve as an ideal tectonic environment for generating moderate- to large- magnitude induced (reservoir, injection, etc.) earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2016

Magnetotelluric investigation of the Vestfold Hills and Rauer Group, East Antarctica

The Vestfold Hills and Rauer Group in East Antarctica have contrasting Archean to Neoproterozoic geological histories and are believed to be juxtaposed along a suture zone that now lies beneath the Sørsdal Glacier. Exact location and age of this suture zone are unknown, as is its relationship to regional deformation associated with the amalgamation of East Gondwana. To image the suture zone, magnetotelluric (MT) data were collected in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica, mainly along a profile crossing the Sørsdal Glacier and regions inland of the Vestfold Hills and Rauer Group islands. Time-frequency analysis of the MT time series yielded three important observations: (1) Wind speeds in excess of &sim;8 m/s reduce coherence between electric and magnetic fields due to charged wind-blown particles of ice and snow. (2) Estimation of the MT transfer function is best between 1000 and 1400 UT when ionospheric Hall currents enhance the magnetic source field. (3) Nonplanar source field effects were minimal but detectable and removed from estimation of the MT transfer function. Inversions of MT data in 2-D and 3-D produce similar resistivity models, where structures in the preferred 3-D resistivity model correlate strongly with regional magnetic data. The electrically conductive Rauer Group is separated from the less conductive Vestfold Hills by a resistive zone under the Sørsdal Glacier, which is interpreted to be caused by oxidation during suturing. Though a suture zone has been imaged, no time constrains on suturing can be made from the MT data.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2024

Ceanothus: Taxonomic patterns in life history responses to fire

Premise: Ceanothus (Rhamnaceae) is a large genus of shrubs that dominate California chaparral and are resilient to fires. Persistence is ensured by resprouting and/or seedling recruitment from dormant seed banks. Some species do both and others, the obligate seeders, are entirely dependent on seedling recruitment. The distribution of these two modes within the genus is poorly documented. Methods: We used all available publications that document species responses to fire and filled most gaps in the literature based on extensive field studies of more than 60 recent wildfires in California. Results: The genus is divided into two subgenera, Ceanothus and Cerastes . Ceanothus is widely considered to comprise mostly resprouting species and Cerastes to consist of only obligate seeders. The subgenus Ceanothus includes resprouting species throughout their range from the eastern United States and Midwest to western United States. Within the California Floristic Province (CFP), a few species are unique in producing massive lignotubers that develop from repeated fires; however, within the CFP, the majority of species in this subgenus do not resprout and are obligate seeders. Two have disjunct subspecies that are facultative seeders or obligate seeders. Conclusions: Previously, speciation in this genus was contended to have occurred in the late Miocene within the CFP. The syndrome of obligate seeding is most strongly represented in this region, and we hypothesize that evolution of this syndrome was a response to increased predictability of fire driven by the Mediterranean climate and the long interval between fires.

California↗

USGS2018

Density of American black bears in New Mexico

Considering advances in noninvasive genetic sampling and spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish sought to update their density estimates for American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) populations in New Mexico, USA, to aide in setting sustainable harvest limits. We estimated black bear density in the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, 2012–2014. We collected hair samples from black bears using hair traps and bear rubs and used a sex marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to individually genotype hair samples. We then estimated density in a SECR framework using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We sampled the populations using 554 hair traps and 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair samples. We identified 725 (367 male, 358 female) individuals. Our density estimates varied from 16.5 bears/100 km 2 (95% CI = 11.6–23.5) in the southern Sacramento Mountains to 25.7 bears/100 km 2 (95% CI = 13.2–50.1) in the Sandia Mountains. Overall, detection probability at the activity center (g0) was low across all study areas and ranged from 0.00001 to 0.02. The low values of g0 were primarily a result of half of all hair samples for which genotypes were attempted failing to produce a complete genotype. We speculate that the low success we had genotyping hair samples was due to exceedingly high levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation that degraded the DNA in the hair. Despite sampling difficulties, we were able to produce density estimates with levels of precision comparable to those estimated for black bears elsewhere in the United States.

New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Direct and indirect effects of fire on eastern box turtles

Prescribed fire is an increasingly important management tool for eastern deciduous forests, but relativity little is known about the direct effects of fire on the eastern box turtle ( Terrapene carolina carolina ). We used very high frequency (VHF) transmitters to monitor mortality, movement, and spatial ecology of 118 box turtles in response to 17 prescribed fires across 4 seasons and 3 sites in east Tennessee, USA, during 2016–2018. Annual survival of box turtles that experienced a prescribed fire event was lower (0.87 ± 0.04 [SE]) than turtles that did not (0.98 ± 0.01) and was negatively correlated with fire intensity, fire temperature the turtle experienced, and litter depth. All prescribed fire‐related mortalities occurred during the early (Apr–May, n = 5) or late growing season (Sep–Oct, n = 1). Fourteen percent of box turtles we captured exhibited damage to their carapace from previous fire events. Box turtles that survived prescribed fires were in microsites that did not burn, moved to unburned areas during the fire, or burrowed following ignition. Home range size was similar before and after burns and sinuosity of movements did not differ in burned or unburned areas. Our results indicate that though box turtles are susceptible to prescribed fire during their active season, they have behavioral and physical traits that reduce the direct effects of prescribed fire. Prescribed fire practitioners should be aware of the risks of fire, particularly during the active season. We suggest managers consider altering prescribed fire intensity, seasonality, and firing pattern to minimize risk of direct effects where box turtles are of concern.

Tennessee↗

USGS2024

Great Lakes mallard population dynamics

Breeding mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) populations in the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, USA) declined by >40% between 2000–2022 based on abundance data collected during spring aerial surveys. Mallards are an important waterfowl species in this region, where an estimated 60–80% of the mallard harvest is composed of locally banded birds. Extensive population monitoring datasets are available for mallards, presenting an opportunity to address complex questions such as estimating productivity at large spatial and temporal scales, identifying the effects of harvest on mallard demography, quantifying mechanisms for harvest compensation, and integrating multiple datasets to quantify the demographic drivers of population change. Our objective was to simultaneously examine factors affecting demographic parameters and their relative contribution to Great Lakes mallard population dynamics. We used 32 years of banding, band recovery, and aerial survey data collected for mallards from Michigan and Wisconsin to develop an integrated population model (IPM). We used age ratios at banding to estimate productivity, band recoveries from hunter-harvested birds to estimate annual survival and cause-specific mortality (i.e., harvest or non-hunting), and modeled abundance using aerial survey and demographic parameter estimates from 1991–2022. The IPM results indicated the decline in Great Lakes mallard abundance was caused by increased non-hunting mortality and a decline in productivity. Productivity varied spatially but temporally declined with the loss of Conservation Reserve Program area. Moreover, our productivity assessment provided evidence of density dependence in reproduction. Non-hunting mortality was 3.5–6.7 times and 1.3–4.2 times greater than harvest mortality for adult and juvenile female mallards, respectively, indicating environmental factors during spring and summer, not harvest, most greatly influenced annual mortality for female mallards. Our IPM reduced uncertainty in the factors affecting Great Lakes mallard population dynamics and indicated management actions that address non-hunting mortality and productivity would be most effective in increasing Great Lakes mallard abundance.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗