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At least 991 records · Page 55Linked to original sources

Evaluating the potential for remote bathymetric mapping of a turbid, sand-bed river: 1. Field spectroscopy and radiative transfer modeling

Remote sensing offers an efficient means of mapping bathymetry in river systems, but this approach has been applied primarily to clear-flowing, gravel bed streams. This study used field spectroscopy and radiative transfer modeling to assess the feasibility of spectrally based depth retrieval in a sand-bed river with a higher suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and greater water turbidity. Attenuation of light within the water column was characterized by measuring the amount of downwelling radiant energy at different depths and calculating a diffuse attenuation coefficient, K d . Attenuation was strongest in blue and near-infrared bands due to scattering by suspended sediment and absorption by water, respectively. Even for red wavelengths with the lowest values of K d , only a small fraction of the incident light propagated to the bed, restricting the range of depths amenable to remote sensing. Spectra recorded above the water surface were used to establish a strong, linear relationship ( R 2 = 0.949) between flow depth and a simple band ratio; even under moderately turbid conditions, depth remained the primary control on reflectance. Constraints on depth retrieval were examined via numerical modeling of radiative transfer within the atmosphere and water column. SSC and sensor radiometric resolution limited both the maximum detectable depth and the precision of image-derived depth estimates. Thus, although field spectra indicated that the bathymetry of turbid channels could be remotely mapped, model results implied that depth retrieval in sediment-laden rivers would be limited to shallow depths (on the order of 0.5 m) and subject to a significant degree of uncertainty.

Water Resources Research↗

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami

The April 11, 2012, magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the northern coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epicenter and at four ocean bottom pressure sensors (DARTs) in the Indian Ocean. The governments of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States' Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issued an Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Bulletin in its role as an Interim Service Provider for the region. Using an experimental real-time tsunami forecast model (RIFT), PTWC produced a series of tsunami forecasts during the event that were based on rapidly derived earthquake parameters, including initial location and Mwp magnitude estimates and the W-phase centroid moment tensor solutions (W-phase CMTs) obtained at PTWC and at the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). We discuss the real-time forecast methodology and how successive, real-time tsunami forecasts using the latest W-phase CMT solutions improved the accuracy of the forecast.

Sumatra↗

Detecting hidden volcanic explosions from Mt. Cleveland Volcano, Alaska with infrasound and ground-couples airwaves

In Alaska, where many active volcanoes exist without ground-based instrumentation, the use of techniques suitable for distant monitoring is pivotal. In this study we report regional-scale seismic and infrasound observations of volcanic activity at Mt. Cleveland between December 2011 and August 2012. During this period, twenty explosions were detected by infrasound sensors as far away as 1827 km from the active vent, and ground-coupled acoustic waves were recorded at seismic stations across the Aleutian Arc. Several events resulting from the explosive disruption of small lava domes within the summit crater were confirmed by analysis of satellite remote sensing data. However, many explosions eluded initial, automated, analyses of satellite data due to poor weather conditions. Infrasound and seismic monitoring provided effective means for detecting these hidden events. We present results from the implementation of automatic infrasound and seismo-acoustic eruption detection algorithms, and review the challenges of real-time volcano monitoring operations in remote regions. We also model acoustic propagation in the Northern Pacific, showing how tropospheric ducting effects allow infrasound to travel long distances across the Aleutian Arc. The successful results of our investigation provide motivation for expanded efforts in infrasound monitoring across the Aleutians and contributes to our knowledge of the number and style of vulcanian eruptions at Mt. Cleveland.

Alaska↗

The thermophysical properties of the Bagnold Dunes, Mars: Ground truthing orbital data

We compare the thermophysical properties and particle sizes derived from the Mars Science Laboratory rover's Ground Temperature Sensor of the Bagnold dunes, specifically Namib dune, to those derived orbitally from Thermal Emission Imaging System, ultimately linking these measurements to ground truth particle sizes determined from Mars Hand Lens Imager images. In general, we find that all three datasets report consistent particle sizes for the Bagnold dunes (~110–350 μm and are within measurement and model uncertainties), indicating that particle sizes of homogeneous materials inferred from temperature measurements and thermophysical models are reliable. Furthermore, we examine the effects of two physical characteristics that could influence the modeled thermal inertia and particle sizes, including (1) fine‐scale (centimeter to meter scale) ripples and (2) thin layering of indurated/armored materials. To first order, we find that small‐scale ripples and thin (approximately centimeter scale) layers do not significantly affect the determination of bulk thermal inertia from orbital thermal data using a single nighttime temperature. Modeling of a layer of coarse or indurated material reveals that a thin layer (< ~5 mm; similar to what was observed by the Curiosity rover) would not significantly change the observed thermal properties of the surface and would be dominated by the properties of the underlying material. Thermal inertia and particle sizes of relatively homogeneous materials derived from nighttime orbital data should be considered as reliable, as long as there are no significant subpixel anisothermality effects (e.g., lateral mixing of multiple thermophysically distinct materials).

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

Operational nowcasting of electron flux levels in the outer zone of Earth's radiation belt

We describe a lightweight, accurate nowcasting model for electron flux levels measured by the Van Allen probes. Largely motivated by Rigler et al. ( 2004 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2003SW000036 ), we turn to a time‐varying linear filter of previous flux levels and K p . We train and test this model on data gathered from the 2.10 MeV channel of the Relativistic Electron‐Proton Telescope sensor onboard the Van Allen probes. Dynamic linear models are a specific case of state space models and can be made flexible enough to emulate the nonlinear behavior of particle fluxes within the radiation belts. Real‐time estimation of the parameters of the model is done using a Kalman filter, where the state of the model is exactly the parameters. Nowcast performance is assessed against several baseline interpolation schemes. Our model demonstrates significant improvements in performance over persistence nowcasting. In particular, during times of high geomagnetic activity, our model is able to attain performance substantially better than a persistence model. In addition, residual analysis is conducted in order to assess model fit and to suggest future improvements to the model.

Space Weather↗

Rethinking the use of seabed sediment temperature profiles to trace submarine groundwater flow

Submarine groundwater fluxes across the seafloor facilitate important hydrological and biogeochemical exchanges between oceans and seabed sediment, yet few studies have investigated spatially distributed groundwater fluxes in deep‐ocean environments such as continental slopes. Heat has been previously applied as a submarine groundwater tracer using an analytical solution to a heat flow equation assuming steady state conditions and homogeneous thermal conductivity. These assumptions are often violated in shallow seabeds due to ocean bottom temperature changes or sediment property variations. Here heat tracing analysis techniques recently developed for terrestrial settings are applied in concert to examine the influences of groundwater flow, ocean temperature changes, and seabed thermal conductivity variations on deep‐ocean sediment temperature profiles. Temperature observations from the sediment and bottom ocean water on the Scotian Slope off eastern Canada are used to demonstrate how simple thermal methods for tracing groundwater can be employed if more comprehensive techniques indicate that the simplifying assumptions are valid. The spatial distribution of the inferred groundwater fluxes on the slope suggests a downward groundwater flow system with recharge occurring over the upper‐middle slope and discharge on the lower slope. We speculate that the downward groundwater flow inferred on the Scotian Slope is due to density‐driven processes arising from underlying salt domes, in contrast with upward slope systems driven by geothermal convection. Improvements in the design of future submarine hydrogeological studies are proposed for thermal data collection and groundwater flow analysis, including new equations that quantify the minimum detectable flux magnitude for a given sensor accuracy and profile length.

Water Resources Research↗

Thermal, deformation, and degassing remote sensing time-series (A.D. 2000-2017) at the 47 most active volcanoes in Latin America: Implications for volcanic systems

Volcanoes are hazardous to local and global populations, but only a fraction are continuously monitored by ground-based sensors. For example, in Latin America, more than 60% of Holocene volcanoes are unmonitored, meaning long-term multi-parameter datasets of volcanic activity are rare and sparse. We use satellite observations of degassing, thermal anomalies, and surface deformation spanning 17 years at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America, and compare these datasets to ground-based observations archived by the Global Volcanism Program (GVP). This first comparison of multi-satellite time-series on a regional scale provides information regarding volcanic behavior during, non-, pre-, syn- and post-eruptive periods. For example, at Copahue volcano, deviations from background activity in all three types of satellite measurements were manifested months to years in advance of renewed eruptive activity in 2012. By quantifying the amount of degassing, thermal output, and deformation measured at each of these volcanoes, we test the classification of these volcanoes as open or closed volcanic systems. We find that ~28% of the volcanoes do not fall into either classification and the rest show elements of both, demonstrating a dynamic range of behavior that can change over time. Finally, we recommend how volcano monitoring could be improved through better coordination of available satellite-based capabilities and new instruments.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Temporal variability in nitrate – discharge relationships in large rivers as revealed by high frequency data

Little is known about temporal variability in nitrate concentration responses to changes in discharge on intraannual time scales in large rivers. To investigate this knowledge gap, we used a six‐year data set of daily surface water nitrate concentration and discharge averaged from near‐continuous monitoring at U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations on the Connecticut, Potomac, and Mississippi Rivers, three large rivers that contribute substantial nutrient pollution to important estuaries. Interannually, a comparison of nitrate concentration‐discharge (c‐Q) relationships between a traditional discrete grab sample data set and the near‐continuous data set revealed differing c‐Q slopes, which suggests that sample frequency can impact how we ultimately characterize hydrologic systems. Intraannually, we conducted correlation analyses over 30‐day windows to isolate the strength and direction of monthly c‐Q relationships. Monthly c‐Q slopes in the Potomac were positive (enrichment/mobilization response) in summer and fall and negative (dilution response) and weakly chemostatic (nonsignificant near‐zero c‐Q slope) in winter and spring, respectively. The Connecticut displayed a dilution response year‐round, except summer when it was weakly chemostatic. Mississippi c‐Q slopes were weakly chemostatic in all seasons and showed inconsistent responses to discharge fluctuations. The c‐Q dynamics in the Potomac and Connecticut were correlated ( R > 0.3) to river temperature, flow percentile, and calendar day. Minimal correlation in the Mississippi suggests that the large basin area coupled with spatiotemporally variable anthropogenic forcings from substantial land use development created stochastic short‐term c‐Q relationships. Additional work using high‐frequency sensors across large river networks can improve our understanding of spatial source input dynamics in these natural‐human coupled systems.

Water Resources Research↗

Assessing the feasibility of satellite-based thresholds for hydrologically driven landsliding

Elevated soil moisture and heavy precipitation contribute to landslides worldwide. These environmental variables are now being resolved with satellites at spatiotemporal scales that could offer new perspectives on the development of landslide warning systems. However, the application of these data to hydro-meteorological thresholds (which account for antecedent soil moisture and rainfall) first need to be evaluated with respect to proven, direct measurement-based thresholds that use rain gauges and in situ soil moisture sensors. Here, we compare ground-based hydrologic data to overlapping satellite-based data before, during, and after a recent season of widespread shallow landsliding in the San Francisco Bay Area (California, USA). We then explore how the remotely sensed information could be used to empirically define hypothetical thresholds for shallow landsliding. We find that the ground-based thresholds developed with a single monitoring station show superior performance because the in situ soil saturation data better reflect the gravity-dominated subsurface flow conditions that are characteristic of hillslopes during the rainy season. Although the satellite-based thresholds can identify most of the landslide days, they include a greater number of false alarms due to overestimates of soil moisture between major storm events. To avoid the type of false alarms that are characteristic of our satellite-based thresholds, further post-processing of the near-surface hydrologic response data to better reflect gravity-dominated drainage should be integrated into satellite-based model outputs. Our results encourage further deployment of ground stations in landslide-prone terrain and cautious exploration of satellite-based hydro-meteorological thresholds where in situ networks are nonexistent.

California↗

The PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm: A retrospective case study of West Coast, USA, data

The PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm differs from typical source-based EEW algorithms as it predicts shaking directly from observed shaking without first deriving earthquake source information (e.g., magnitude and epicenter). Here, we determine optimal PLUM event detection thresholds for U.S. West Coast earthquakes using two data sets: 558 M3.5+ earthquakes (California, Oregon, Washington; 2012–2017) and the ShakeAlert test suite of historic and problematic signals (1999–2015). PLUM computes Modified Mercalli Intensity ( I MMI ) using velocity and acceleration data, leveraging co-located sensors to avoid problematic signals. An event detection is issued when the observed I MMI exceeds a given threshold(s). We find a two-station detection method using I MMI trigger thresholds of 4.0 and 3.0 for the first and second stations, respectively, is optimal for detecting M4.5+ earthquakes. PLUM detected 79 events in the 2012–2017 data set, reporting (not including telemetry or alert dissemination) detection times on par, and sometimes faster than current EEW methods (mean 8 s; median 6 s). As expected, detection times were slower for the older 1999–2015 earthquakes ( N = 21; mean 11 s; median 6 s) when station coverage was sparser. Of the 31 PLUM detected M5+ events (10 2012–2017; 21 1999–2015), theoretically 20 (∼65%) could provide timely warnings. PLUM issued no false detections and avoided issuing detections for all calibration/anomalous signals, regional and teleseismic events. We conclude PLUM can successfully identify I MMI 4+ shaking from local earthquakes and could complement and enhance EEW in the U.S.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

A numerical study of wave-driven mean flows and setup dynamics at a coral reef-lagoon system

Two-dimensional mean wave-driven flow and setup dynamics were investigated at a reef-lagoon system at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia, using the numerical wave-flow model, SWASH. Phase-resolved numerical simulations of the wave and flow fields, validated with highly detailed field observations (including >10 sensors through the energetic surf zone), were used to quantify the main mechanisms that govern the mean momentum balances and resulting mean current and setup patterns, with particular attention to the role of nonlinear wave shapes. Momentum balances from the phase-resolved model indicated that onshore flows near the reef crest were primarily driven by the wave force (dominated by radiation stress gradients) due to intense breaking, whereas the flow over the reef flat and inside the lagoon and channels was primarily driven by a pressure gradient. Wave setup inside the lagoon was primarily controlled by the wave force and bottom stress. The bottom stress reduced the setup on the reef flat and inside the lagoon. Excluding the bottom stress contribution in the setup balance resulted in an over prediction of the wave-setup inside the lagoon by up to 200–370%. The bottom stress was found to be caused by the combined presence of onshore directed wave-driven currents and (nonlinear) waves. Exclusion of the bottom stress contribution from nonlinear wave shapes led to an over prediction of the setup inside the lagoon by approximately 20–40%. The inclusion of the nonlinear wave shape contribution to the bottom stress term was found to be particularly relevant in reef regions that experience a net onshore mass flux over the reef crest.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans↗

Sediment delivery to marsh platforms minimized by source decoupling and flux convergence

Sediment supply is a primary factor in determining marsh response to sea level rise and is typically approximated through high‐resolution measurements of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) from adjacent tidal channels. However, understanding sediment transport across the marsh itself remains limited by discontinuous measurements of SSC over individual tidal cycles. Here, we use an array of optical turbidity sensors to build a long‐term, continuous record of SSC across a marsh platform and adjacent tidal channel. We find that channel and marsh concentrations are correlated (i.e., coupled) within tidal cycles but are largely decoupled over longer time scales. We also find that net sediment fluxes decline to near zero within 10 m of the marsh edge. Together, these results suggest that large sections of the marsh platform receive minimal sediment independent of flooding frequency or channel sediment supply. Marsh‐centric, as opposed to channel‐centric, measures of sediment supply may better characterize marsh platform vulnerability.

Massachusetts↗

Measuring basal force fluctuations of debris flows using seismic recordings and empirical green's functions

We present a novel method for measuring the fluctuating basal normal and shear stresses of debris flows by using along‐channel seismic recordings. Our method couples a simple parameterization of a debris flow as a seismic source with direct measurements of seismic path effects using empirical Green's functions generated with a force hammer. We test this method using two large‐scale (8 and 10 m 3 ) experimental flows at the U.S. Geological Survey debris‐flow flume that were recorded by dozens of three‐component seismic sensors. The seismically derived basal stress fluctuations compare well in amplitude and timing to independent force plate measurements within the valid frequency range (15–50 Hz). We show that although the high‐frequency seismic signals provide band‐limited forcing information, there are systematic relations between the fluctuating stresses and independently measured flow properties, especially mean basal shear stress and flow thickness. However, none of the relationships are simple, and since the flow properties also correlate with one another, we cannot isolate a single factor that relates in a simple way to the fluctuating forces. Nevertheless, our observations, most notably the gradually declining ratio of fluctuating to mean basal stresses during flow passage and the distinctive behavior of the coarse, unsaturated flow front, imply that flow style may be a primary control on the conversion of translational to vibrational kinetic energy. This conversion ultimately controls the radiation of high‐frequency seismic waves. Thus, flow style may provide the key to revealing the nature of the relationship between fluctuating forces and other flow properties.

Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface↗

Getting to the root of plant‐mediated methane emissions and oxidation in a thermokarst bog

Vascular plants are important in the wetland methane cycle, but their effect on production, oxidation, and transport has high uncertainty, limiting our ability to predict emissions. In a permafrost‐thaw bog in Interior Alaska, we used plant manipulation treatments, field‐deployed planar optical oxygen sensors, direct measurements of methane oxidation, and microbial DNA analyses to disentangle mechanisms by which vascular vegetation affect methane emissions. Vegetation operated on top of baseline methane emissions, which varied with proximity to the thawing permafrost margin. Emissions from vegetated plots increased over the season, resulting in cumulative seasonal methane emissions that were 4.1–5.2 g m −2 season −1 greater than unvegetated plots. Mass balance calculations signify these greater emissions were due to increased methane production (3.0–3.5 g m −2 season −1 ) and decreased methane oxidation (1.1–1.6 g m −2 season −1 ). Minimal oxidation occurred along the plant‐transport pathway, and oxidation was suppressed outside the plant pathway. Our data indicate suppression of methane oxidation was stimulated by root exudates fueling competition among microbes for electron acceptors. This contention is supported by the fact that methane oxidation and relative abundance of methanotrophs decreased over the season in the presence of vegetation, but methane oxidation remained steady in unvegetated treatments; oxygen was not detected around plant roots but was detected around silicone tubes mimicking aerenchyma; and oxygen injection experiments suggested that oxygen consumption was faster in the presence of vascular vegetation. Root exudates are known to fuel methane production, and our work provides evidence they also decrease methane oxidation.

Alaska↗

Using heat to trace vertical water fluxes in sediment experiencing concurrent tidal pumping and groundwater discharge

Heat has been widely applied to trace groundwater‐surface water exchanges in inland environments, but it is infrequently applied in coastal sediment where head oscillations induce periodicity in water flux magnitude/direction and heat advection. This complicates interpretation of temperatures to estimate water fluxes. We investigate the convolution of thermal and hydraulic signals to assess the viability of using heat as a tracer in environments with tidal head oscillations superimposed on submarine groundwater discharge. We first generate sediment temperature and head time series for conditions ranging from no tide to mega‐tidal using a numerical model (SUTRA) forced with periodic temperature and tidal head signals. We then analyze these synthetic temperature time series using heat tracing software (VFLUX2 and 1DTempPro) to evaluate if conventional terrestrial approaches to infer fluxes from temperatures are applicable for coastal settings. We consider high‐frequency water flux variability within a tidal signal and averaged over tidal signals. Results show that VFLUX2 analytical methods reasonably estimated the mean discharge fluxes in most cases but could not reproduce the flux variability within tidal cycles. The model results further reveal that high‐frequency time series of water fluxes varying in magnitude and direction can be accurately estimated if paired temperature and hydraulic head are analyzed using numerical models (e.g. 1DTempPro) that consider both dynamic hydraulic gradients and thermal signals. These results point to the opportunity to incorporate pressure sensors within heat tracing instrumentation to better assess sub‐daily flux oscillations and associated reactive processes.

Water Resources Research↗

Measuring and interpreting multilayer aquifer-system compactions for a sustainable groundwater-system development

Ever decreasing water resources and climate change have driven the increasing use of groundwater causing land subsidence in many countries. Geodetic sensors such as InSAR, GPS and leveling can detect surface deformation but cannot measure subsurface deformation. A single‐well, single‐depth extensometer can be used to measure subsurface deformation, but it cannot delineate the depths of major compaction and provide insight about the deformation mechanism throughout a complex aquifer system, unless man extensometers at different depths are used. We present a multilayer compaction well (MLCW), installed in a borehole, that uses magnetic rings to detect stratum compaction at 25 depths as deep as 300 m below land surface. Our laboratory and field assessments indicate 1 mm precision and accuracy for one single‐depth magnetic reading. We tested the performance of MLCW by measuring aquifer‐system compaction over the proximal, middle, and distal fans of the Choushui River Alluvial Fan (CRAF) that has long experienced severe land subsidence. The MLCW measurements were used to create time‐depth diagrams of compaction, showing different compaction rates at different layers of aquifers and aquitards to identify the depths of major compactions. The elastic (reversible) and inelastic (irreversible) compactions from MLCW were used in stress‐strain analyses to estimate skeletal specific storages and the safe groundwater levels, below which groundwater extractions have caused irreversible compactions. The hydrogeological parameters derived from MLCW measurements can help governmental agencies to determine effective land‐use and water‐use policies, and ascertain the best strategy for utilizing artificial recharge to prevent land subsidence and achieve sustainable groundwater management.

Water Resources Research↗

Robust earthquake early warning at a fraction of the cost: ASTUTI Costa Rica

We show that a fixed smartphone network can provide robust Earthquake Early Warning for at least two orders of magnitude less cost than scientific-grade networks. Our software and cloud-based data architecture that we have constructed for the Alerta Sismica Temprana Utilizando Teléfonos Inteligentes (ASTUTI; Earthquake Early Warning Utilizing Smartphones) network in Costa Rica is easily scaled and exported. Implementation comprises provisioning and installing modern smartphones in judicious locations. Stand-up time for regionally operational networks can be on the order of days. We evaluated a non-parametric ground-motion detection and alerting strategy that would alert the entire Costa Rican population of any event with a ground motion detection threshold of 0.55–0.65 %g at four neighboring stations. During a 6-month evaluation period ASTUTI detected and alerted on five of 13 earthquakes with M w 4.8–5.3 that caused felt Modified Mercalli Intensity shaking levels of 4.3–6. The system did not produce any false alerts and the undetected events did not produce wide-spread or significant felt shaking. System latencies were less than or similar to scientific-grade latencies. Alerts for all five detected events would have reached the capital city, San Jose, before strong S -wave shaking. This would have afforded time for Drop Cover Hold On actions by most residents. Two of the five alerts were triggered by P -waves suggesting that smartphone-based networks could approach the fastest theoretical EEW performance, especially with future expected improvements in smartphone sensors and processing algorithms.

AGU Advances↗