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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Epidemiological modeling of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) reveals conditions for introduction and widespread transmission

Emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic potential often have complex socioecological dynamics and limited ecological data, requiring integration of epidemiological modeling with surveillance. Although our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 has advanced considerably since its detection in late 2019, the factors influencing its introduction and transmission in wildlife hosts, particularly white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), remain poorly understood. We use a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible epidemiological model to investigate the spillover risk and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in wild and captive white-tailed deer populations across various simulated scenarios. We found that captive scenarios pose a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 introduction from humans into deer herds and subsequent transmission among deer, compared to wild herds. However, even in wild herds, the transmission risk is often substantial enough to sustain infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the strength of introduction from humans influences outbreak characteristics only to a certain extent. Transmission among deer was frequently sufficient for widespread outbreaks in deer populations, regardless of the initial level of introduction. We also explore the potential for fence line interactions between captive and wild deer to elevate outbreak metrics in wild herds that have the lowest risk of introduction and sustained transmission. Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 could be introduced and maintained in deer herds across a range of circumstances based on testing a range of introduction and transmission risks in various captive and wild scenarios. Our approach and findings will aid One Health strategies that mitigate persistent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in white-tailed deer populations and potential spillback to humans.

PLOS Computational Biology↗
USGS2017

Mitigating road mortality of diamond-backed terrapins (Malaclemy's terrapin) with hybrid barriers at crossing hot spots

Roads represent a pervasive feature on most landscapes that can pose multiple threats to wildlife populations and substantial challenges for management. To be effective, management strategies must often target where threats are most concentrated. Road mortality and nest predation are well-documented threats to Diamond-backed Terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin ) across the majority of their range, including the 8.7-km causeway to Jekyll Island, Georgia, USA, where both are predicted to contribute to population declines if left unmitigated. From 2009 to 2014, we used intensive road surveying to identify spatial peaks (hot spots) of terrapin crossing activity and road mortality and exploit these as targets for management. In 2011, we deployed a hybrid barrier composed of nest boxes, which were designed to prevent terrapins from accessing the road and mitigate nest predation, at one hot spot while leaving two other hot spots unmanaged. We evaluated the impact of the barrier on terrapin emergences on the causeway under a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design, and a companion study evaluated the effects of nest boxes on nest predation rates. We estimated a 57% reduction in annual terrapin emergences at the barrier site compared to no measurable change at control hot spots. Our findings support the use of hybrid barriers for simultaneously addressing road mortality and nest predation for other terrapin populations at risk to these threats. Our approach highlights the need to design feasible but robust management strategies that target spatial peaks of road mortality while addressing additional threats contributing to population declines of terrapins and other species.

Georgia↗
USGS2019

Migration routes, foraging behavior, and site fidelity of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) satellite tracked from a globally important rookery

The Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, USA (27.946°N, − 80.494°W) represents one of the largest loggerhead turtle ( Caretta caretta ) nesting sites in the Western Hemisphere. Surprisingly, little work has been conducted to determine females’ post-nesting migratory behavior and characteristics of their foraging areas. Between 2008 and 2017, satellite telemetry was used to trace the locations and movements of 45 post-nesting loggerhead turtles. A switching state-space model was employed to estimate the behavioral state of each location. Internesting, migrating and foraging activity periods were determined for 38 loggerheads based on the SSSM. Seven environmental variables were extracted from remote sensing imagery for each location to compare values among behaviors. Core primary foraging areas ranged in size from 5.89 to 4572.80 km 2 . Four foraging types (primary, secondary, seasonal, and loops) were observed. Most turtles resided at a primary foraging area year round. A few individuals conducted foraging loops away from a primary foraging area. Both seasonal and loop movements were associated with changes in sea surface temperature as turtles moved to avoid temperatures that could cause cold-stunning or mortality. Turtle size and nesting beach offshore currents may play a role in foraging area selection, and date of departure from the nesting beach may be linked to foraging destination. By making the connection among oceanic features, foraging areas, and the influence of environmental variables on these areas, it is possible to identify and characterize critically important feeding areas and migration corridors for loggerheads nesting on the east coast of Florida.

Marine Biology↗
USGS2017

Relative influences of climate change and human activity on the onshore distribution of polar bears

Climate change is altering habitat for many species, leading to shifts in distributions that can increase levels of human-wildlife conflict. To develop effective strategies for minimizing human-wildlife conflict, we must understand the relative influences that climate change and other factors have on wildlife distributions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land during summer and autumn due to sea ice loss, leading to higher incidents of conflict and concerns for human safety. We sought to understand the relative influence of sea ice conditions, onshore habitat characteristics, and human-provisioned food attractants on the distribution and abundance of polar bears while on shore. We also wanted to determine how mitigation measures might reduce human-polar bear conflict associated with an anthropogenic food source. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model based on 14 years of aerial survey data to estimate the weekly number and distribution of polar bears on the coast of northern Alaska in autumn. We then used the model to predict how effective two management options for handling subsistence-harvested whale remains in the community of Kaktovik, Alaska might be. The distribution of bears on shore was most strongly influenced by the presence of whale carcasses and to a lesser extent sea ice and onshore habitat conditions. The numbers of bears on shore were related to sea ice conditions. The two management strategies for handling the whale carcasses reduced the estimated number of bears near Kaktovik by > 75%. By considering multiple factors associated with the onshore distribution and abundance of polar bears we discerned what role human activities played in where bears occur and how successful efforts to manage the whale carcasses might be for reducing human-polar bear conflict.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Where will the cat cross the road? Comparing camera and GPS-based models for identifying wildlife corridors

Designing effective wildlife corridors is a critical conservation challenge in fragmented landscapes. GPS-based step selection functions strongly predict dispersal corridors and connectivity, but GPS collaring can be expensive and invasive. Camera-based occupancy models are widely used for connectivity analyses but may involve trade-offs in data resolution. Despite widespread use of both approaches, few studies have directly compared them using concurrent datasets. We developed a stacked single-species, single-season occupancy model and a Circuitscape connectivity surface for mountain lions (Puma concolor) on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula, USA, and compared them with a connectivity surface from an existing integrated step selection function. Both models predicted mountain lion GPS locations well, with binned Spearman rank correlations of 1 for Circuitscape and 0.96 for the step selection function, though step selection better identified habitat use by dispersers. Connectivity predictions were moderately correlated across the landscape ( r = 0.26), but agreement was strongest in human-dominated areas most critical for corridor planning. We conclude that GPS-based approaches are advantageous when data collection is feasible and the focus is on dispersal or fine-scale movement. However, camera-based approaches may be preferable for multi-species monitoring, large spatial and temporal scales, noninvasive sampling, when resources are limited, or when fine-scale or dispersal-specific inference is not required.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Considering multiecosystem trade-offs is critical when leveraging systematic conservation planning for restoration

Conservationists are increasingly leveraging systematic conservation planning (SCP) to inform restoration actions that enhance biodiversity. However, restoration frequently drives ecological transformations at local scales, potentially resulting in trade-offs among wildlife species and communities. The Conservation Interactions Principle (CIP), coined more than 15 years ago, cautions SCP practitioners regarding the importance of jointly and fully evaluating conservation outcomes across the landscape over long timeframes. However, SCP efforts that guide landscape restoration have inadequately addressed the CIP by failing to tabulate the full value of the current ecological state. The increased application of SCP to inform restoration, reliance on increasingly small areas to sustain at-risk species and ecological communities, ineffective considerations for the changing climate, and increasing numbers of at-risk species, are collectively intensifying the need to consider unintended consequences when prioritizing sites for restoration. Improper incorporation of the CIP in SCP may result in inefficient use of conservation resources through opportunity costs and/or conservation actions that counteract one another. We suggest SCP practitioners can avoid these consequences through a more detailed accounting of the current ecological benefits to better address the CIP when conducting restoration planning. Specifically, forming interdisciplinary teams with expertise in the current and desired ecosystem states at candidate conservation sites; improving data availability; modeling and computational advancements; and applying structured decision-making approaches can all improve the integration of the CIP in SCP efforts. Improved trade-off assessment, spanning multiple ecosystems or states, can facilitate efficient, proactive, and coordinated SCP applications across space and time. In doing so, SCP can effectively guide the siting of restoration actions capable of promoting the full suite of biodiversity in a region.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS1959

Life history of the sea lamprey of Cayugaf Lake, New York

A life history study of the sea lamprey, Petromyson marinus Linnaeus, in Cayuga Lake, N.Y., was conducted during 1950, 1951, and 1952. One of the major objectives was to obtain biological data concerning this endemic stock of sea lampreys for comparison with the newly established stocks in the Great Lakes. Sexually mature sea lampreys captured on their spawning migration in Cayuga Inlet were the basis of much of this study. Such items as meristic counts, body proportions, body color, sex ratios, lengths and weights, fecundity, rate of upstream travel, effect of dams in retarding upstream movement, nesting habits, parasites, predators, estimates of abundance, and morphological changes were based on mature upstream migrants. Sea lampreys were procured by weir and trap operations and captured by hand. Tagging and marking' programs each spring made it possible to determine movements and morphological changes of individual lampreys, in addition to estimating the number of upstream migrants. Growth of parasitic-phase sea lampreys was estimated from measurements of specimens captured in Cayuga Inlet and Cayuga Lake proper. The incubation period of lamprey eggs and the habits of ammocoetes and transforming lampreys were ascertained from specimens kept in hatchery troughs and raceways. Length-frequency and weight-frequency distributions, together with the length-weight regression, of ammocoetes from Cayuga Inlet were utilized for estimating the duration of their larval life. Lake trout, Salvelinus n. namayc"Ush (Walbaum), from Cayuga Lake and Seneca Lake were the subject of an inquiry into the effects of sea lamprey attacks. Incidence of sea lamprey attacks on the white sucker, Catosto7llus c. commerson/: (LacepMe), was investigated. Three methods are suggested for reducing the number of sea lampreys in Cayuga Lake.

Fishery Bulletin of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Ser↗
USGS2018

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin ) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2002

Natal and breeding dispersal of northern spotted owls

We studied the dispersal behavior of 1,475 northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) during banding and radio-telemetry studies in Oregon and Washington in 1985-1996. The sample included 324 radio-marked juveniles and 1,151 banded individuals (711 juveniles, 440 non-juveniles) that were recaptured or resighted after dispersing from the initial banding location. Juveniles typically left the nest during the last week in May and the first two weeks in June (x?? ?? SE = 8 June ?? 0.53 days, n = 320, range = 15 May-1 July), and spent an average of 103.7 days in the natal territory after leaving the nest (SE = 0.986 days, n = 137, range = 76-147 days). The estimated mean date that juveniles began to disperse was 19 September in Oregon (95% CI = 17-21 September) and 30 September in Washington (95% CI = 25 September-4 October). Mean dispersal dates did not differ between males and females or among years. Siblings dispersed independently. Dispersal was typically initiated with a series of rapid movements away from the natal site during the first few days or weeks of dispersal. Thereafter, most juveniles settled into temporary home ranges in late October or November and remained there for several months. In February-April there was a second pulse of dispersal activity, with many owls moving considerable distances before settling again in their second summer. Subsequent dispersal patterns were highly variable, with some individuals settling permanently in their second summer and others occupying a series of temporary home ranges before eventually settling on territories when they were 2-5 years old. Final dispersal distances ranged from 0.6-111.2 km for banded juveniles and 1.8-103.5 km for radio-marked juveniles. The distribution of dispersal distances was strongly skewed towards shorter distances, with only 8.7% of individuals dispersing more than 50 km. Median natal dispersal distances were 14.6 km for banded males, 13.5 km for radio-marked males, 24.5 km for banded females, and 22.9 km for radio-marked females. On average, banded males and females settled within 4.2 and 7.0 territory widths of their natal sites, respectively. Maximum and final dispersal distances were largely independent of the number of days that juveniles were tracked. Although statistical tests of dispersal direction based on all owls indicated that direction of natal dispersal was non-random, the mean angular deviations and 95% CI's associated with the samples were large, and r-values (vector length) were small. This lead us to conclude that significant test results were the result of large sample size and were not biologically meaningful. Our samples were not large enough to test whether dispersal direction from individual territories was random. In the sample of radio-marked owls, 22% of males and 44% of females were paired at 1 year of age, but only 1.5% of males and 1.6% of females were actually breeding at 1 year of age. At 2 years of age, 68% of males and 77% of females were paired, but only 5.4% of males and 2.6% of females were breeding. In contrast to the radio-marked owls, most juveniles that were banded and relocated at 1 or 2 years of age were paired, although few were breeding. Although recruitment into the territorial population typically occurred when owls were 1-5 years old, 9% of banded juveniles were not recaptured until they were > 5 years old. We suspect that our estimates of age at recruitment of banded owls are biased high because of the likelihood that some individuals were not recaptured in the first year that they entered the territorial population. A minimum of 6% of the banded, non-juvenile owls on our demographic study areas changed territories each year (breeding dispersal). The likelihood of breeding dispersal was higher for females, young owls, owls that did not have a mate in the previous year, and owls that lost their mate from the previous year through death or divorce. Mean and median distances dispersed by adults were

Wildlife Monographs↗
USGS2001

Estimation of brood and nest survival: Comparative methods in the presence of heterogeneity

The Mayfield method has been widely used for estimating survival of nests and young animals, especially when data are collected at irregular observation intervals. However, this method assumes survival is constant throughout the study period, which often ignores biologically relevant variation and may lead to biased survival estimates. We examined the bias and accuracy of 1 modification to the Mayfield method that allows for temporal variation in survival, and we developed and similarly tested 2 additional methods. One of these 2 new methods is simply an iterative extension of Klett and Johnson's method, which we refer to as the Iterative Mayfield method and bears similarity to Kaplan-Meier methods. The other method uses maximum likelihood techniques for estimation and is best applied to survival of animals in groups or families, rather than as independent individuals. We also examined how robust these estimators are to heterogeneity in the data, which can arise from such sources as dependent survival probabilities among siblings, inherent differences among families, and adoption. Testing of estimator performance with respect to bias, accuracy, and heterogeneity was done using simulations that mimicked a study of survival of emperor goose ( Chen canagica ) goslings. Assuming constant survival for inappropriately long periods of time or use of Klett and Johnson's methods resulted in large bias or poor accuracy (often >5% bias or root mean square error) compared to our Iterative Mayfield or maximum likelihood methods. Overall, estimator performance was slightly better with our Iterative Mayfield than our maximum likelihood method, but the maximum likelihood method provides a more rigorous framework for testing covariates and explicity models a heterogeneity factor. We demonstrated use of all estimators with data from emperor goose goslings. We advocate that future studies use the new methods outlined here rather than the traditional Mayfield method or its previous modifications.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2024

The status and conservation needs of the Micronesian Megapode (Megapodius laperouse laperouse) across the Mariana archipelago

Context Accurate baseline data for wildlife populations are important to track trends of these populations over time and to identify threats to their long-term persistence. Aims We aimed to assess the status and distribution of the little studied megapode ( Megapodius laperouse laperouse ) across the Mariana Islands. Methods Using passive and call playback facilitated surveys in 2008 through 2010, we employed point–transect distance sampling to assess island-level and archipelago-wide status of this megapode. To assess conservation needs, we defined human presence as the current, recent, or intermittent occurrence of humans on islands. Key results We recorded 657 megapode detections and estimated an archipelago level abundance of 11,542 individuals (95% CI: 5456–17,623) from 699 sampling points across 10 islands. Three islands supported 86% of the megapode population, but cumulatively comprise only 2% of the archipelago’s land area. Conclusions Micronesian Megapodes preferred native forest. Human presence and the availability of native forest may limit their abundance and distribution in the Mariana Islands. Although the probability of detecting megapodes was significantly greater on islands without high human presence, significantly more detections were recorded in forests with dense or closed understory on those islands that supported greater human populations. Implications Given their status and confined distribution in the Mariana Islands, additional studies investigating megapode incubation sites and movement within and between islands would provide fundamental information on megapode ecology and enhance conservation efforts. Continued and expanded ungulate removal, predator control, and habitat restoration would further enhance the likelihood of megapode persistence in the archipelago.

Pacific Conservation Biology↗
USGS2018

Cumulative spring discharge and survey effort influence occupancy and detection of a threatened freshwater mussel, the Suwannee Moccasinshell

Freshwater mussels (Unionidae) are among the most imperiled groups of organisms in the world, and the lack of information regarding species distributions, life-history characteristics, and ecological and biological requirements may limit the protection of remaining mussel populations. We examined the influence of hydrologic factors on the occurrence of the Suwannee Moccasinshell Medionidus walkeri, a federally threatened freshwater mussel species, endemic to the Suwannee River Basin in Georgia and Florida. We also evaluated the influence of survey effort on detection of Suwannee Moccasinshell during field surveys. We compiled all recent (2013–2016) mussel survey records in the Suwannee River Basin. We calculated cumulative discharge contributed by upstream springs for each of 220 survey locations. We combined the spring discharge predictor variable with Suwannee Moccasinshell detection and nondetection data from each survey location to develop a suite of occupancy models. Modeling results indicated that detection of Suwannee Moccasinshell during surveys was strongly and positively related to survey effort. Modeling results also indicated that sites with cumulative spring discharge inputs exceeding ∼28 cubic meters per second were most likely (i.e., predicted occupancy probabilities >0.5) to support Suwannee Moccasinshell populations. However, occupancy declined in the lowermost reaches of the Suwannee mainstem despite high spring discharge inputs, presumably due to greater tidal influences and differences in physicochemical habitat conditions. Historical localities where Suwannee Moccasinshell has presumably been extirpated are all devoid of springs in their upstream watersheds. We hypothesize that springs may buffer extremely tannic, and at times polluted, surface waters, in addition to maintaining adequate flows during periods of drought, thereby promoting the persistence of Suwannee Moccasinshell populations. Our study suggests that springs are a critical resource for Suwannee Moccasinshell and may be more important for conservation planning than was previously recognized.

Florida↗
USGS2018

Range expansion in unfavorable environments through behavioral responses to microclimatic conditions: Moose (Alces americanus) as the model

Wildlife populations occurring at the edge of their range boundaries are thought to be the most sensitive to climate change due to temperatures being at or near the limit of a species’ thermal envelope. Moose ( Alces americanus ) are a cold adapted species that are showing population declines in some portions of the southern edge of their range. However, other moose populations are actively expanding southward into thermally stressful areas. The direct effects of temperature on moose have not yet been studied in these southwardly expanding populations and may offer insights into how moose are successfully establishing in areas at the edge of their thermal envelope. We used ambient temperature and GPScollar data from moose to quantify the direct effect of temperature on moose habitat use in Massachusetts, USA, which is one of these southwardly expanding populations. The mean daily temperature in our study area exceeded the reported physiological tolerances of moose in over 90% of daytime and 75% of nighttime locations in summer and in over 80% of daytime and 67% of nighttime locations in winter. Across seasons and times of day, moose preferred regenerating forest, but as ambient air temperatures increased, selection for regenerating forest declined and selection for forested wetlands and coniferous forestincreased. This response indicates moose are altering their behavior to utilize thermal shelters when temperatures are high. We observed higher temperatures and stronger behavioral responses than other studies at the southern edge of moose range. We found habitat for moose in Massachusetts is climatically marginal and loss of habitat, increase in parasites, and further climatic warming may cause population declines in the future.

Mammalian Biology↗
USGS2024

Landscape-scale population trends in the occurrence and abundance of wildlife populations using long term camera-trapping data

Accurate estimation and monitoring of wildlife population trends is foundational to evidence-based conservation. Here, we use hierarchical modelling to estimate population trends for six species of management interest (coyotes; red foxes , white-tailed deer , gray foxes; eastern wild turkey , and bobcats) while accounting for observation error from a long-term camera trap survey conducted across the State of New York. We were able to detect population level trends in occurrence and abundance and produce spatially explicit predictions for all six species using a combination of single-species occupancy models and Royle-Nichols models. Coyote (mean λ = 1.22, 95 % CI = 0.85–1.82) and red fox (mean λ = 1.17, 95 % CI = 0.95–1.46) populations were widely distributed with stable populations across the sampling period from 2014 to 2021. White-tailed deer populations were highly abundant and displayed an increasing population trend (mean λ = 1.85, 95 % CI = 1.54–2.10). Eastern wild turkey occupancy remained low across the state despite displaying a slight increase in occupancy over the sampling period (mean ψ = 0.16, 95 % CI = 0.07–0.25). Gray fox occupancy was also low (mean ψ = 0.22, 95 % CI = 0.12–0.29), consistent with growing concerns over the species across North America. Despite recent recoveries elsewhere, bobcat populations in New York State displayed very low occupancy (mean ψ = 0.07, 95 % CI = 0.02–0.12), highlighting the necessity of monitoring to inform conservation action. We provide empirically supported management implications for each species and demonstrate the efficacy of long-term camera trapping to provide robust evidence on population trends while accounting for imperfect detections, over scales meaningful to species management and conservation.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS1995

Evaluations of duck habitat and estimation of duck population sizes with a remote-sensing-based system

During 1987-90, we used high-altitude photography, aerial videography, counts, and models to estimate sizes of breeding populations of dabbling ducks (Anatinae) and duck production and to identify duck habitat on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service land and easements and on private land in the prairie pothole region of the United States. The study area contained about 3.1 million wetland basins (28,490 km2). Wetland area (ha per km2) was highest on service-owned land; wetland-basin density was greatest on service easements. Temporary and seasonal wetlands were underrepresented and lakes were overrepresented on service-owned land. Seventy-eight percent of all basins were less than 0.41 ha. Cropland dominated private land. Pond density decreased from 4.4/km2 in 1987 to 3.4/km2 in 1990 and pond area, from 7.2 ha/km2 to 2.7 ha/km2. The density of the blue-winged teal was greatest (3.4 pairs/km2) and was followed in magnitude by those of the mallard (2.1 pairs/km2), the gadwall (1.8 pairs/km2), the northern pintail (0.8 pairs/km2), and the redhead (0.8 pairs/km2). Duck density was consistently highest on service-owned land. The decline of breeding-population sizes in 1987-90 closely corresponded to losses of pond numbers and pond area. The density of breeding pairs per pond was inversely related to pond density, suggesting that breeding ducks tended to concentrate on the remaining ponds as drought intensified. The production of recruits followed the same pattern as breeding-population sizes. We estimated that 2.5% of the ducklings hatched on service-owned land, which was 1.3% of the study area; 19.6% hatched on service easements, which were 14.2% of the study area; and 77.9% hatched on private land, which was 84.6% of the study area. Various sources of bias and sampling error and improvements to the system are discussed.

Biological Science Report↗
USGS2014

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2024

The potential influence of genome-wide adaptive divergence on conservation translocation outcome in an isolated greater sage-grouse population

Conservation translocations are an important conservation tool commonly employed to augment declining or reestablish extirpated populations. One goal of augmentation is to increase genetic diversity and reduce the risk of inbreeding depression (i.e., genetic rescue). However, introducing individuals from significantly diverged populations risks disrupting coadapted traits and reducing local fitness (i.e., outbreeding depression). Genetic data are increasingly more accessible for wildlife species and can provide unique insight regarding the presence and retention of introduced genetic variation from augmentation as an indicator of effectiveness and adaptive similarity as an indicator of source and recipient population suitability. We used 2 genetic data sets to evaluate augmentation of isolated populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the northwestern region of the species range (Washington, USA) and to retrospectively evaluate adaptive divergence among source and recipient populations. We developed 2 statistical models for microsatellite data to evaluate augmentation outcomes. We used one model to predict genetic diversity after augmentation and compared these predictions with observations of genetic change. We used the second model to quantify the amount of observed reproduction attributed to transplants (proof of population integration). We also characterized genome-wide adaptive divergence among source and recipient populations. Observed genetic diversity ( H O = 0.65) was higher in the recipient population than predicted had no augmentation occurred ( H O = 0.58) but less than what was predicted by our model ( H O = 0.75). The amount of shared genetic variation between the 2 geographically isolated resident populations increased, which is evidence of periodic gene flow previously assumed to be rare. Among candidate adaptive genes associated with elevated fixation index ( F ST ) (143 genes) or local environmental variables (97 and 157 genes for each genotype–environment association method, respectively), we found clusters of genes with related functions that may influence the ability of transplants to use local resources and navigate unfamiliar environments and their reproductive potential, all possible reasons for low genetic retention from augmentation.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2021

Assessment of variation in the detection and prevalence of blood parasites among sympatrically breeding geese in western Alaska, USA

Haemosporidian parasites may impact avian health and are subject to shifts in distribution and abundance with changing ecologic conditions. Therefore, understanding variation in parasite prevalence is important for evaluating biologically meaningful changes in infection patterns and associated population level impacts. Previous research in western Alaska, US, indicated a possible increase in Leucocytozoon spp. infection between Emperor Geese ( Anser canagicus ) sampled in 1996 (<1%, n =134) and during 2011–12 (19.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0–36.8%, n =77); however, different detection methods were used for these estimates. Prior research in this same region identified a lack of Leucocytozoon spp. parasites (0%, n =117) in sympatrically breeding Cackling Geese ( Branta hutchinsii minima ) in 2011. We molecularly screened blood samples collected from sympatrically breeding Emperor and Cackling Geese in western Alaska during additional breeding seasons to better assess temporal and species-specific variation in the prevalence of blood parasites. We found similar prevalence estimates for Leucocytozoon spp. parasites in Emperor Goose blood samples collected in 1998 and 2014, suggesting consistent infection of Emperor Geese with blood parasites at these time points. Using samples from sympatric geese sampled during 2014, we found evidence for a higher incidence of parasites among Emperor Geese (20.3%, 95% CI: 11.8–32.7%) compared to Cackling Geese (3.6%, 95% CI: 1.1–11.0%), reinforcing the previous finding of species-specific differences in infection. Furthermore, we detected Leucocytozoon , Haemoproteus , and Plasmodium spp. blood parasites in unflighted goslings of both species, supporting the possible transmission of these parasites at western Alaska breeding grounds. Our results help to clarify that prevalence of Leucocytozoon spp. parasites have probably remained consistent among Emperor Geese breeding in western Alaska since the late 1990s and that this species may disproportionally harbor Leucocytozoon spp. compared to sympatrically breeding Cackling Geese.

Alaska↗