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USGS2004

Density-dependent habitat selection by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) in tallgrass prairie

Local distributions of avian brood parasites among their host habitats may depend upon conspecific parasite density. We used isodar analysis to test for density-dependent habitat selection in brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) among tallgrass prairie adjacent to wooded edges, and prairie interior habitat (>100 m from wooded edges) with and without experimental perches. Eight study sites containing these three habitat treatments were established along a geographical gradient in cowbird abundance within the Flint Hills region of Eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, USA. The focal host species of our study, the dickcissel (Spiza americana), is the most abundant and preferred cowbird host in the prairie of this region. Cowbird relative abundance and cowbird:host abundance ratios were used as estimates of female cowbird density, whereas cowbird egg density was measured as parasitism frequency (percent of dickcissel nests parasitized), and parasitism intensity (number of cowbird eggs per parasitized nest). Geographical variation in cowbird abundance was independent of host abundance. Within study sites, host abundance was highest in wooded edge plots, intermediate in the experimental perch plots, and lowest in prairie interior. Cowbirds exhibited a pattern of density-dependent selection of prairie edge versus experimental perch and interior habitats. On sites where measures of cowbird density were lowest, all cowbird density estimates (female cowbirds and their eggs) were highest near (???100 m) wooded edges, where host and perch availability are highest. However, as overall cowbird density increased geographically, these density estimates increased more rapidly in experimental perch plots and prairie interiors. Variation in cowbird abundance and cowbird:host ratios suggested density-dependent cowbird selection of experimental perch over prairie interior habitat, but parasitism levels on dickcissel nests were similar among these two habitats at all levels of local cowbird parasitism. The density-dependent pattern of cowbird distribution among prairie edge and interior suggested that density effects on perceived cowbird fitness are greatest at wooded edges. A positive relationship between daily nest mortality rates of parasitized nests during the nestling period with parasitism intensity levels per nest suggested a density-dependent effect on cowbird reproductive success. However, this relationship was similar among habitats, such that all habitats should have been perceived as being equally suitable to cowbirds at all densities. Other unmeasured effects on cowbird habitat suitability (e.g., reduced cowbird success in edge-dwelling host nests, cowbird despotism at edges) might have affected cowbird habitat selection. Managers attempting to minimize cowbird parasitism on sensitive cowbird hosts should consider that hosts in otherwise less-preferred cowbird habitats (e.g., habitat interiors) are at greater risk of being parasitized where cowbirds become particularly abundant. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Oecologia↗

USGS2023

Approaches for assessing flows, concentrations, and loads of highway and urban runoff and receiving-stream stormwater in southern New England with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) was designed to help quantify the risk of adverse effects of runoff on receiving waters, the potential need for mitigation measures, and the potential effectiveness of such management measures for reducing these risks. SELDM is calibrated using representative hydrological and water-quality input statistics. This report by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island Departments of Transportation, documents approaches for assessing flows, concentrations, and loads of highway- and urban-runoff and receiving-stream stormwater in southern New England with SELDM. In this report, the term “urban runoff” is used to identify stormwater flows from developed areas with impervious fractions ranging from 10 to 100 percent without regard to the U.S. Census Bureau designation for any given location. There are more than 48,000 delineated road-stream crossings in southern New England, but because there are relatively few precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality monitoring sites in this area, methods were needed to simulate conditions at unmonitored sites. This report documents simulation methods, methods for interpreting stochastic model results, sensitivity analyses to identify the most critical variables of concern, and examples demonstrating how simulation results can be used to inform scientific decision-making processes. Results of 7,511 SELDM simulations were used to do the sensitivity analyses and provide information decisionmakers can use to address runoff-quality issues in southern New England and other areas of the Nation. The sensitivity analyses indicate the relatively strong effect of input variables on variations in output results. These analyses indicate that highway and urban runoff quality and upstream water-quality statistics that vary considerably from site to site have the greatest effect on simulated results. Further data are needed to improve available water-quality statistics, and because the number of monitored sites will never approach the number of sites of interest for water-quality management, research is needed to identify methods to select statistics for unmonitored sites and quantify the uncertainties in the selection process. Hydrologically, prestorm streamflows with and without zero flows are the most sensitive and therefore the most important hydrologic variables to quantify. Results of analyses also are sensitive to statistics used for simulating structural best management practices. Although the focus of the report is on data, statistics, simulation methods, and methods to interpret stochastic simulations, the examples in this report provide results that can be used to inform scientific decision-making processes. The results of 441 simulations that provide regional and site-specific highway and urban runoff yields across southern New England can be used for total maximum daily load analyses. The example stormwater load analysis done for 16 tributaries of the Narragansett Bay demonstrates that highway nitrogen loads are a small fraction of stormwater loads (about 3.6 percent), and a much smaller fraction of all nitrogen loads to the bay, primarily because highways have a small footprint on the land. Examples evaluating the potential effectiveness of end-of-pipe treatment indicate that offsite treatment is warranted in developed areas, and land conservation may be an effective mitigation strategy. The results of these analyses are consistent with conclusions from other simulation and monitoring studies.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode I↗

USGS2017

Scientific monitoring plan in support of the selected alternative of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan

Introduction The purpose of this document is to describe a strategy by which monitoring and research data in the natural and social sciences will be collected, analyzed, and provided to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), its bureaus, and to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) in support of implementation of the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016a). The selected alternative identified in the LTEMP Record of Decision (ROD) (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b) describes various data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation efforts to be conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), partner agencies, and cooperators that will inform decisions about operations of Glen Canyon Dam and management of downstream resources between 2017 and 2037, the performance period of the LTEMP. General data collection, analysis, modeling, and interpretation activities are described in this science plan, whereas specific monitoring and research activities and detailed study plans are to be described in the GCDAMP’s triennial work plans (TWPs) to be developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and GCMRC with input from partner agencies and cooperators during the LTEMP period, which are to be reviewed and recommended by the GCDAMP and approved by the Secretary of the Interior. The GCDAMP consists of several components, the primary committee being the Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG). This Federal advisory committee is composed of 25 agencies and stakeholder groups and is chaired by the Secretary of the Interior’s designee. The AMWG makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning operations of Glen Canyon Dam and other experimental management actions that are intended to fulfill some obligations of the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992. The Technical Work Group (TWG) is a subcommittee of the AMWG and provides technical advice to the AMWG. It is composed of technical and science representatives from the same agencies and stakeholder groups who serve on the AMWG. GCMRC is the primary science provider to the GCDAMP and also coordinates many aspects of the science performed by cooperators and partner agencies. The Science Advisors Program provides independent science reviews and advice at the request of the GCDAMP. The plan proposed here necessarily depends on (1) the protocol for decision-making and the requirements for scientific data reporting described in the LTEMP ROD, (2) the priorities of the GCDAMP as directed by the LTEMP ROD (see Department of the Interior, 2016b, section 6.1), (3) the priorities for monitoring and research in the conservation measures section of the Biological Opinion for the LTEMP (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016b, LTEMP ROD attachment E), (4) the priorities for resource management and information needs established by Federal and State resource-management agencies within the GCDAMP, (5) scientific understanding about the linkage between the status of those resources and operations of Glen Canyon Dam, and (6) the need to resolve existing scientific uncertainties about the linkage between dam operations and the condition of resources. We note that resource-management prioritization is fundamentally a policy decision charged specifically to DOI for the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons, as outlined most recently in the LTEMP ROD, and is not the responsibility of the GCMRC. However, it is the responsibility of the GCMRC to describe the nature of scientific understanding, the nature of scientific uncertainty, and the risk of making resourcemanagement decisions in the face of existing scientific uncertainty. The goals of science activities in the next 20 years are to inform operational decisions regarding Glen Canyon Dam operations described in the LTEMP ROD, resolve remaining scientific uncertainties, and to monitor resource trends that are affected entirely, or in part, by dam operations.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Observed and modeled mercury and dissolved organic carbon concentrations and loads at control structure S-12D, Florida Everglades, 2013–17

Mercury (Hg) has been a contaminant of concern for several decades in South Florida, particularly in the Florida Everglades. The transport and bioavailability of Hg in aquatic systems is intimately linked to dissolved organic carbon (DOC). In aquatic systems, Hg can be converted to methylmercury (MeHg), which is the form of Hg that bioaccumulates in food webs. The bioaccumulation of MeHg poses significant health risks to wildlife and humans. Fish consumption advisories triggered by elevated Hg levels first appeared in the 1980s in South Florida. Multiple structures regulate freshwater distribution to Everglades National Park, including S-12D. This report summarizes seasonal and annual concentration and load data from late September 2013 to April 2017 for the total of (1) filter-passing total mercury (FTHg), (2) filter-passing methylmercury (FMeHg), (3) particulate total mercury (PTHg), (4) particulate methylmercury (PMeHg) and, (5) DOC discharged through control structure S-12D. The loads of Hg fractions and DOC at control structure S-12D were determined by pairing discharge data with constituent concentrations estimated by empirical models based on surrogate in situ water-quality measurements. Calculated concentrations of DOC ranged from 12.8 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 27.9 mg/L with a mean of 18.8 mg/L during the study period. Annual loads of DOC ranged from 3,950 tons in 2015 to 10,900 tons in 2016. DOC loads increased linearly with an increase in flow, and the highest monthly DOC load of 1,630 tons was observed in February 2016. Calculated concentrations of FTHg ranged from 0.35 to 1.55 nanograms per liter (ng/L) with a mean of 0.85 ng/L during the study period. Calculated concentrations of FMeHg ranged from 0.06 ng/L to 0.24 ng/L with a mean of 0.14 ng/L during the study period. Generally, FTHg and FMeHg concentrations were lower during periods of decreased flow and higher during periods of increased flow. Calculated PTHg concentrations ranged from 0.09 ng/L to 4.19 ng/L with a mean of 0.58 ng/L during the study period. Calculated PMeHg concentrations ranged from below the limit of detection <0.01 ng/L to 0.29 ng/L with a mean of 0.03 ng/L during the study period. Loads of Hg were often zero or lowest from November to May, owing to the lack of flow or low-flow conditions. FTHg and FMeHg loads increased linearly with an increase in flow and typically were highest from June to October. During periods of increasing flow or following changes in gate operations, PTHg and PMeHg constituted a greater percentage of the total Hg load. Annual loads of total Hg (filter-passing and particulate) ranged from 254 grams in 2015 to 658 grams in 2016. FTHg was the predominant contributor to the total Hg load. Information presented herein provides the first assessment of DOC and Hg loads to Everglades National Park through control structure S-12D using continuous in situ measurements of discharge and constituent surrogates and compares the surrogate model approach to loads calculated from monthly sampling. Analysis of calculated and observed loads demonstrates the significance of flow data on calculating constituent loads.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Least Bell's Vireos and Southwestern Willow Flycatchers—Breeding activities and habitat use—2023 annual report

Executive Summary We completed four protocol surveys for Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ; hereinafter vireo) during the breeding season, supplemented by weekly territory monitoring visits between April 6 and July 20 at the San Luis Rey Flood Risk Management Project Area (hereinafter Project Area). We identified a total of 136 territorial male vireos; 121 were confirmed as paired, and 4 were confirmed as single males. For the remaining 11 territories, we were unable to confirm breeding status. In 2023, two transient vireos were detected. The vireo population in the Project Area increased by 2 percent from 2022 to 2023. Populations in southern San Diego County also increased (by 6 percent on the Otay River) or were stable (Salt Creek/Wolf Canyon). In contrast, the vireo population at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP) and at Marine Corps Air Station decreased by 2 and 10 percent, respectively. We used an index of treatment (hereinafter Treatment Index) to evaluate the effect of ongoing vegetation clearing on the Project Area vireo population. The Treatment Index measures the cumulative effect of vegetation treatment within a territory by using the percentage area treated weighted by the number of years since treatment. We determined that the Treatment Index for an unoccupied habitat was more than four times higher than that of an occupied habitat, indicating that vireos selected habitats that were less treated in which to settle. We monitored vireo nests at three general site types: (1) within the flood channel where non-native and native vegetation removal has occurred regularly (hereinafter Channel), (2) three sites near the flood channel where limited non-native and native vegetation removal has occurred (hereinafter Off-channel), and (3) three sites that have been actively restored by planting native vegetation (hereinafter Restoration). Nesting activity was monitored in 84 territories, 4 of which were occupied by single males. Overall, 46 percent of completed nests were successful, and nest success did not differ among the three sites. In 2023, we found that territories in the Channel had greater hatching success per egg compared to Off-channel, but there were no other differences with regard to clutch size, hatching, or fledging success among Channel, Off-channel, and Restoration sites. Overall breeding success and productivity were slightly higher in 2023 than in 2022, with pairs fledging an average±standard deviation of 3.1±2.1 young and 79 percent of pairs fledging at least 1 young. To investigate if the cumulative years of treatment had an effect on vireo reproductive effort, we looked at the effects of the Treatment Index on reproductive parameters. Results from generalized linear models indicated that treatment did not have an effect on vireo nesting effort (the number of nest attempts) or the number of vireo fledglings per pair produced in 2023. Similarly, we did not detect an effect of Treatment Index on the daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. Analysis of vegetation data collected at vireo nests from 2006 to 2023 did not reveal an effect of vegetation cover at the nest on DSR. We did find, however, that Channel nests were placed higher in and farther from the edge of the host plant than Off-channel nests. Within sites, we did not detect any differences in vegetation cover between successful and unsuccessful nests. Red/arroyo willow ( Salix laevigata or Salix lasiolepis ) and mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) were the species most commonly selected for nesting by vireos in all three site types. Black willow ( Salix gooddingii ) and sandbar willow ( Salix exigua ) also were commonly used. Vireos used a wider variety of species for nesting in Channel and Off-channel sites (10 and 13 species, respectively) compared to Restoration sites (2 species), although there was limited nesting in Restoration sites in 2023. There were 51 vireos banded before the 2023 breeding season that were resighted and identified at the Project Area in 2023. Two of these vireos were originally banded outside of the Project Area, at the Santa Margarita River on MCBCP. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 7 years old. Between 2006 and 2023, survival of males (66±11 percent) was consistently higher than that of females (60±12 percent). First-year birds from 2006 to 2022 had an average annual survival of 15±5 percent. First-year dispersal in 2023 averaged 20.2±31.3 kilometers (km), with the longest dispersal (76.3 km) by a female that was recaptured at Wolf Canyon, a tributary to Otay River. From 2007 to 2012, most returning first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, whereas from 2014 to 2016, a greater proportion of returning birds dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area. From 2018 to 2022, the trend shifted, and more first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, except for 2022 when only one out of five first-year vireos returned to the Project Area. This trend continued in 2023: 71 percent of all first-year vireos returned to the Project Area, and 29 percent dispersed to areas outside of the Project Area (San Diego River and Wolf Canyon). Most of the returning adult male vireos showed strong between-year fidelity to their previous territories. In 2023, 94 percent of males (34/36) occupied a territory that they had defended in 2022 (within 100 meters [m]). In 2023, 33 percent of females (1/3) detected returned to a territory they occupied in 2022. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.2±0.9 km. The amount of treatment at adults’ 2022 territories did not affect the distance adults moved to their 2023 territories. We completed four protocol surveys for the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ; hereinafter flycatcher) at the Project Area between May 15 and July 21, 2023. In 2023, four transient Willow Flycatchers were detected in the Project Area. Two transients were detected in Reach 1, one in Reach 3a, and one in Whelan Mitigation. No resident flycatchers were documented in the Project Area in 2023. A total of 46 vegetation transects (516 points) were sampled in the Project Area in 2023. There were 71 percent (368/516) of points located in the Channel, and 22 percent (113/516) were in Upper Pond. The remaining 7 percent (35/516) of points were at the Whelan Restoration site. Foliage cover below 1 m was higher at the Channel points and Upper Pond compared to Whelan Restoration. From 1 to 3 m, foliage cover was similar at all 3 sites; however, above 3 m foliage cover was higher in the Channel compared to the Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration sites. Average canopy height was higher in the Channel (5.6±3.8 m) compared to Upper Pond (4.7±2.7 m) and Whelan Restoration (4.0±2.0 m). From 2006 to 2023, total foliage cover declined from 2 to 3 m and above 6 m in the Channel, in contrast to Upper Pond and Whelan Restoration, where little directional change in vegetation cover has occurred and where vegetation cover has largely recovered to 2006 levels. Within the Channel, the steepest declines occurred between 2009 and 2013 and between 2014 and 2016. Since 2016, we observed an increase in foliage cover, largely herbaceous, between 0 and 2 m within the Channel. Although increases were observed at all height classes after 2016, percentage cover has remained below levels measured before 2009. We sampled vegetation at 45 vireo nests and 45 random plots (territory plots) within territories in the Channel and Upper Pond after the 2023 breeding season. Vireos in the Channel established territories in areas with significantly more cover from 3 to 7 m but less cover below 1 m relative to the available habitat. Within territories, Channel vireos selected nest sites largely at random, but with significantly less foliage cover from 4 to 5 m. Vireos at Upper Pond established territories in areas with significantly more foliage cover below 4 m and from 5 to 6 m relative to available habitat. Within territories, Upper Pond vireos also selected nest sites at random except for a preference for sites with significantly less foliage cover below 1 m.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Determination of steroid hormones and related compounds in filtered and unfiltered water by solid-phase extraction, derivatization, and gas chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry

A new analytical method has been developed and implemented at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory that determines a suite of 20 steroid hormones and related compounds in filtered water (using laboratory schedule 2434) and in unfiltered water (using laboratory schedule 4434). This report documents the procedures and initial performance data for the method and provides guidance on application of the method and considerations of data quality in relation to data interpretation. The analytical method determines 6 natural and 3 synthetic estrogen compounds, 6 natural androgens, 1 natural and 1 synthetic progestin compound, and 2 sterols: cholesterol and 3--coprostanol. These two sterols have limited biological activity but typically are abundant in wastewater effluents and serve as useful tracers. Bisphenol A, an industrial chemical used primarily to produce polycarbonate plastic and epoxy resins and that has been shown to have estrogenic activity, also is determined by the method. A technique referred to as isotope-dilution quantification is used to improve quantitative accuracy by accounting for sample-specific procedural losses in the determined analyte concentration. Briefly, deuterium- or carbon-13-labeled isotope-dilution standards (IDSs), all of which are direct or chemically similar isotopic analogs of the method analytes, are added to all environmental and quality-control and quality-assurance samples before extraction. Method analytes and IDS compounds are isolated from filtered or unfiltered water by solid-phase extraction onto an octadecylsilyl disk, overlain with a graded glass-fiber filter to facilitate extraction of unfiltered sample matrices. The disks are eluted with methanol, and the extract is evaporated to dryness, reconstituted in solvent, passed through a Florisil solid-phase extraction column to remove polar organic interferences, and again evaporated to dryness in a reaction vial. The method compounds are reacted with activated -methyl--trimethylsilyl trifluoroacetamide at 65 degrees Celsius for 1 hour to form trimethylsilyl or trimethylsilyl-enol ether derivatives that are more amenable to gas chromatographic separation than the underivatized compounds. Analysis is carried out by gas chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry using calibration standards that are derivatized concurrently with the sample extracts. Analyte concentrations are quantified relative to specific IDS compounds in the sample, which directly compensate for procedural losses (incomplete recovery) in the determined and reported analyte concentrations. Thus, reported analyte concentrations (or analyte recoveries for spiked samples) are corrected based on recovery of the corresponding IDS compound during the quantification process. Recovery for each IDS compound is reported for each sample and represents an absolute recovery in a manner comparable to surrogate recoveries for other organic methods used by the National Water Quality Laboratory. Thus, IDS recoveries provide a useful tool for evaluating sample-specific analytical performance from an absolute mass recovery standpoint. IDS absolute recovery will differ and typically be lower than the corresponding analyte’s method recovery in spiked samples. However, additional correction of reported analyte concentrations is unnecessary and inappropriate because the analyte concentration (or recovery) already is compensated for by the isotope-dilution quantification procedure. Method analytes were spiked at 10 and 100 nanograms per liter (ng/L) for most analytes (10 times greater spike levels were used for bisphenol A and 100 times greater spike levels were used for 3--coprostanol and cholesterol) into the following validation-sample matrices: reagent water, wastewater-affected surface water, a secondary-treated wastewater effluent, and a primary (no biological treatment) wastewater effluent. Overall method recovery for all analytes in these matrices averaged 100 percent, with overall relative standard deviation of 28 percent. Mean recoveries of the 20 individual analytes for spiked reagent-water samples prepared along with field samples and analyzed in 2009–2010 ranged from 84–104 percent, with relative standard deviations of 6–36 percent. Concentrations for two analytes, equilin and progesterone, are reported as estimated because these analytes had excessive bias or variability, or both. Additional database coding is applied to other reported analyte data as needed, based on sample-specific IDS recovery performance. Detection levels were derived statistically by fortifying reagent water at six different levels (0.1 to 4 ng/L) and range from about 0.4 to 4 ng/L for 16 analytes. Interim reporting levels applied to analytes in this report range from 0.8 to 8 ng/L. Bisphenol A and the sterols (cholesterol and 3-beta-coprostanol) were consistently detected in laboratory and field blanks. The minimum reporting levels were set at 100 ng/L for bisphenol A and at 200 ng/L for the two sterols to prevent any bias associated with the presence of these compounds in the blanks. A minimum reporting level of 2 ng/L was set for 11-ketotestosterone to minimize false positive risk from an interfering siloxane compound emanating as chromatographic-column bleed, from vial septum material, or from other sources at no more than 1 ng/L.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2012

Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities in Rhode Island through 2010

Heavy persistent rains from late February through March 2010 caused severe widespread flooding in Rhode Island that set or nearly set record flows and water levels at many long-term streamgages in the State. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, conducted a study to update estimates of flood magnitudes at streamgages and regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged locations. This report provides information needed for flood plain management, transportation infrastructure design, flood insurance studies, and other purposes that can help minimize future flood damages and risks. The magnitudes of floods were determined from the annual peak flows at 43 streamgages in Rhode Island (20 sites), Connecticut (14 sites), and Massachusetts (9 sites) using the standard Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method and a modification of this method called the expected moments algorithm (EMA) for 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) floods. Annual-peak flows were analyzed for the period of record through the 2010 water year; however, records were extended at 23 streamgages using the maintenance of variance extension (MOVE) procedure to best represent the longest period possible for determining the generalized skew and flood magnitudes. Generalized least square regression equations were developed from the flood quantiles computed at 41 streamgages (2 streamgages in Rhode Island with reported flood quantiles were not used in the regional regression because of regulation or redundancy) and their respective basin characteristics to estimate magnitude of floods at ungaged sites. Of 55 basin characteristics evaluated as potential explanatory variables, 3 were statistically significant—drainage area, stream density, and basin storage. The pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo- R2 ) indicates these three explanatory variables explain 95 to 96 percent of the variance in the flood magnitudes from 20- to 0.2-percent AEPs. Estimates of uncertainty of the at-site and regression flood magnitudes are provided and were combined with their respective estimated flood quantiles to improve estimates of flood flows at streamgages. This region has a long history of urban development, which is considered to have an important effect on flood flows. This study includes basins that have an impervious area ranging from 0.5 to 37 percent. Although imperviousness provided some explanatory power in the regression, it was not statistically significant at the 95-percent confidence level for any of the AEPs examined. Influence of urbanization on flood flows indicates a complex interaction with other characteristics that confounds a statistical explanation of its effects. Standard methods for calculating magnitude of floods for given AEP are based on the assumption of stationarity, that is, the annual peak flows exhibit no significant trend over time. A subset of 16 streamgages with 70 or more years of unregulated systematic record indicates all but 4 streamgages have a statistically significant positive trend at the 95-percent confidence level; three of these are statistically significant at about the 90-percent confidence level or above. If the trend continues linearly in time, the estimated magnitude of floods for any AEP, on average, will increase by 6, 13, and 21 percent in 10, 20, and 30 years' time, respectively. In 2010, new peaks of record were set at 18 of the 21 active streamgages in Rhode Island. The updated flood frequency analysis indicates the peaks at these streamgages ranged from 2- to 0.2-percent AEP. Many streamgages in the State peaked at a 0.5- and 0.2-percent AEP, except for streamgages in the Blackstone River Basin, which peaked from a 4- to 2-percent AEP.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2020

Understanding the golden eagle and bald eagle sensory worlds to enhance detection and response to wind turbines

The objective for this study was to measure the auditory and visual physiology of Golden and Bald Eagles in order to use eagle sensory capabilities to inform the design of potential deterrent stimuli that could be used to reduce eagle/turbine collisions with wind turbines. The rationale for this approach is that sensory systems of any organism will limit the capability of that organism to perceive aspects of the world around it. Moreover, species can differ dramatically in their sensory physiology so it is important to examine these characteristics in the species of concern, rather than relying on data from similar birds. Our project consisted of two main phases. The first phase was the acquisition and analysis of visual and auditory information from Golden and Bald Eagles in rehabilitation centers. This was performed in order to identify light and sound stimuli tuned to sensitive areas in the eagle’s sensory systems. The second phase of the project was to present these stimuli to both species of eagles in a behavioral experiment to identify which stimuli would be the most effective in changing the behaviors of the eagles. Results of phase one indicated that the visual system of the Golden Eagle strongly absorbs ultraviolet light, making it unlikely the Golden Eagle (and most likely the Bald Eagle) will detect ultraviolet light signals. The Golden and Bald Eagles have differences in the sensitivities of their visual systems to light within the eye, but mathematical models indicate that both species are able to detect indigo/blue and orange/red light produced by LEDs (light emitting diodes) very well. We also found that both species of eagles have a blind spot above their head. This blind spot is particularly large in Golden Eagles due to a pronounced brow ridge above the eyes. This blind spot will result in the inability of a Golden Eagle to see something in front of it when its head is pointed down during flight – as might happen while hunting (i.e. searching the ground for prey). As such, the blind spot may increase the chance of collision with wind turbines if the eagle is actively hunting. This problem is less pronounced in Bald Eagles because their blind spot is smaller than in the Golden Eagles and their foraging strategy is different. Results of phase one also indicated that the auditory systems of the Golden and Bald Eagles respond differently to a variety of sounds (static tones, static chords (i.e. stacked tones), and sounds with dynamic changes through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation). Both species’ auditory systems responded strongly to tones across a wide range of frequencies (0.5 – 5kHz ), however the Bald Eagles’ auditory system was much better at processing complex sounds with dynamic rapid changes in amplitude or frequency modulation than the Golden Eagle. All of these sounds were then played with two types of noise in the background (white or pink). White noise more closely resembles the sound of wind and pink noise more closely resembles wind turbines or other sources of anthropogenic noise. Most sounds were more strongly masked by pink noise than by white noise, but several sounds (especially sounds with rapid modulation changes) showed little or no masking, indicating these were good candidate signals. However, even though rapidly changing sounds are less subject to noise masking, they are also less strongly processed by the Golden Eagle auditory system. This tradeoff does not exist in Bald Eagles because individuals of this species are very good at processing rapidly changing sounds. Given that Golden Eagle populations are at greater risk than Bald Eagle populations, we suggest that the most efficient alerting sound stimuli used in deterrent systems should be complex sounds that do not change very rapidly. We identified candidate light (indigo/blue and orange/red LED lights) and sound (sinusoidal frequency modulated sound, linear frequency sweeps, amplitude modulated sound, and a mistuned harmonic stack) stimuli that both eagle species sensory systems are highly sensitive to. Results of phase two, in which we presented these stimuli to eagles in a behavioral experiment, indicated that eagles behaviorally responded to all the stimuli presented, but at varying degrees. The Golden Eagles, especially, elicited higher rates of visual exploratory behavior with a flashing blue light stimulus and all sound stimuli. Our results suggest using these stimuli in field-testing of light/sound eagle deterrent systems on wind turbines. The eagles showed lower rates of behavior over the course of an experiment, suggesting either that they habituated to our stimuli or were initially stressed by the setup of the behavioral tests. These results underscore the need to test for habituation effects. Nonetheless, habitation to the stimuli in these field tests would likely be reduced by the use of random presentations of the four sounds and if possible random presentation of the candidate lights.

Report↗

USGS2022

Least Bell's Vireos and Southwestern Willow Flycatchers at the San Luis Rey flood risk management project area in San Diego County, California: Breeding activities and habitat use—2021 Annual report

Executive Summary Surveys and monitoring for the endangered Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ; vireo) were done at the San Luis Rey Flood Risk Management Project Area (Project Area) in the city of Oceanside, San Diego County, California, between April 4 and August 4, 2021. We completed four protocol surveys during the breeding season, supplemented by weekly territory monitoring visits. We identified a total of 122 territorial male vireos; 111 were confirmed as paired and 8 were confirmed as single males. For the remaining three territories, we were unable to confirm pair status. Five transient vireos were detected in 2021. The vireo population in the Project Area decreased by 24 percent from 2020 to 2021. Vireo populations decreased across San Diego County, with a 14-percent decrease documented at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP); a 5-percent decrease on the Otay River; a 6-percent decrease on the middle San Luis Rey River; and a 44-percent decrease at Marine Corps Air Station (although this decrease was likely exaggerated by large-scale vegetation clearing that occurred prior to the 2021 breeding season). We used an index of treatment (Treatment Index) to evaluate the impact of on-going vegetation clearing on the Project Area vireo population. The Treatment Index measures the cumulative effect of vegetation treatment within a territory (since 2005) by using the percent area treated weighted by the number of years since treatment. We found that the Treatment Index for unoccupied habitat was more than two times that of occupied habitat, indicating that vireos selected less treated habitat in which to settle. We monitored vireo nests at three general site types: (1) within the flood channel where exotic and native vegetation removal has occurred regularly (Channel), (2) three sites next to the flood channel where limited exotic and native vegetation removal has occurred (Off-channel), and (3) three sites that have been actively restored by planting native vegetation (Restoration). Nesting activity was monitored in 85 territories, 8 of which were occupied by single males. Of the completed nests, 39 percent were successful, and nest success did not differ among the three sites. Clutch size was greater in the Channel than the Off-channel sites, and the proportion of hatchlings that fledged was greater in Off-channel sites than Channel and Restoration sites. There were no other nest-level differences detected among site types, nor were there any differences in territory-level measures of productivity (young fledged per pair, double-brooding) among the sites. Overall, breeding success and productivity were slightly lower in 2021 than in 2020, with 66 percent of pairs fledgling at least one young and pairs fledging an average of 1.9±1.7 young. To investigate if the cumulative years of treatment had an impact on vireo reproductive effort, we looked at the effects of the Treatment Index on reproductive parameters. Results from generalized linear models indicated that treatment did not have an effect on vireo nesting effort or the number of vireo fledglings per pair produced in 2021. Similarly, our analysis of nest survival for 2021 revealed no effect of Treatment Index on daily survival rate. Analysis of vegetation data collected at vireo nests from 2006 to 2021 did not indicate an effect of vegetation at the nest on daily survival rate. We also found no differences in nest-placement characteristics among site types or successful/unsuccessful nests. Red/arroyo willow ( Salix laevigata or Salix lasiolepis ) was the species most commonly selected for nesting by vireos in all three site types. Black willow ( Salix gooddingii ) and mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) also were commonly used. Vireos used a wider variety of species for nesting in Channel and Off-channel sites (seven and eight species, respectively) compared with Restoration sites (three species).

California↗

USGS2023

Data summary report: Unregulated contaminants monitoring project

The Drinking Water Protection Section of the Minnesota Department of Health conducted reconnaissance monitoring of selected public water systems in Minnesota. Funding was obtained primarily from the Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund. Sampling was conducted in 2019 and 2021. Laboratory analysis of samples was conducted for a variety of different contaminants of emerging concern (CECs), including selected pharmaceuticals, pesticides, PFAS, wastewater indicators and other parameters chosen for the physical and land use setting surrounding the sampling points. Sampling site and parameter selection were designed with several goals, as follows: Characterize occurrence and distribution of selected CECs in settings where such chemicals are most likely to be present; Determine if any such occurrences represent a public health concern; Compare results from coupled source water and finished (i.e., treated) water samples at public water system sites where such sampling is feasible; Assess if results from geologically vulnerable (sensitive subject to rapid recharge) and geologically non-vulnerable settings differ significantly. 306 samples were collected as part of the study, from three networks of public water systems differentiated on the basis of source water type (i.e., surface water or groundwater) and land use environment (agricultural and wastewater influenced). This report provides a preliminary, qualitative evaluation of the results. Additionally, more rigorous research will be conducted on these water quality data to evaluate the below findings in more detail. High-level findings from this assessment include the following: Very few samples exceeded health-based guidance for CECs; o When this occurred, MDH staff conducted follow up sampling at the system and provided technical advice about managing the situation. Only a fraction of the CECs analyzed were detected; o Of the 522 different CECs analyzed in the water samples, 161 were detected in one or more samples; o Additionally, most detections were at low levels; Among the CEC classes included in the analytical work, pesticides and PFAS were generally detected at a greater frequency than other CECs; o See Executive Summary Figure 1. The ten most commonly detected individual compounds include: o Tribromomethane, or bromoform, (a disinfection by-product) (70% of sites where analyzed); o norgestrel (a pharmaceutical) (69% of sites where analyzed); o lithium (68% of sites where analyzed); o Metolachlor SA (52%), Deethylatrazine (49%), atrazine (45%), and deisopropylatrazine (31%) (pesticides); o PFBA (44%) and PFHxS (27%) (PFAS compounds); and o 5-methyl benzotriazole (29%) (a benzotriazole). Some CECs were detected more frequently in samples collected from surface waters than those collected from groundwater sources; CEC concentrations were generally higher in vulnerable settings compared to nonvulnerable settings; Whether CECs were detected more frequently in the source water or finished water varied by CEC class. For example, o Benzotriazoles and pharmaceuticals were more frequently detected in source water samples than finished water samples; and o Tribromomethane, or bromoform, a common disinfection by-product, was more frequently found in finished water samples than in source water samples. This work prompted a series of programmatic changes and innovations: A response framework was established for helping the program and public water systems manage detections of unregulated CECs in drinking water; Results were forwarded to the program within MDH responsible for developing healthbased guidance in order to nominate specific compounds found in drinking water but for which limited or no risk advice is available; MDH is seeking support from the Clean Water Council to support the establishment of permanent capacity within the Drinking Water Protection Section to continue sampling efforts of this type.

Minnesota↗

USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

USGS2014

Statistics for stochastic modeling of volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment by structural stormwater runoff best management practices (BMPs)

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to indicate the risk for stormwater concentrations, flows, and loads to be above user-selected water-quality goals and the potential effectiveness of mitigation measures to reduce such risks. SELDM models the potential effect of mitigation measures by using Monte Carlo methods with statistics that approximate the net effects of structural and nonstructural best management practices (BMPs). In this report, structural BMPs are defined as the components of the drainage pathway between the source of runoff and a stormwater discharge location that affect the volume, timing, or quality of runoff. SELDM uses a simple stochastic statistical model of BMP performance to develop planning-level estimates of runoff-event characteristics. This statistical approach can be used to represent a single BMP or an assemblage of BMPs. The SELDM BMP-treatment module has provisions for stochastic modeling of three stormwater treatments: volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment. In SELDM, these three treatment variables are modeled by using the trapezoidal distribution and the rank correlation with the associated highway-runoff variables. This report describes methods for calculating the trapezoidal-distribution statistics and rank correlation coefficients for stochastic modeling of volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment by structural stormwater BMPs and provides the calculated values for these variables. This report also provides robust methods for estimating the minimum irreducible concentration (MIC), which is the lowest expected effluent concentration from a particular BMP site or a class of BMPs. These statistics are different from the statistics commonly used to characterize or compare BMPs. They are designed to provide a stochastic transfer function to approximate the quantity, duration, and quality of BMP effluent given the associated inflow values for a population of storm events. A database application and several spreadsheet tools are included in the digital media accompanying this report for further documentation of methods and for future use. In this study, analyses were done with data extracted from a modified copy of the January 2012 version of International Stormwater Best Management Practices Database, designated herein as the January 2012a version. Statistics for volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment were developed with selected data. Sufficient data were available to estimate statistics for 5 to 10 BMP categories by using data from 40 to more than 165 monitoring sites. Water-quality treatment statistics were developed for 13 runoff-quality constituents commonly measured in highway and urban runoff studies including turbidity, sediment and solids; nutrients; total metals; organic carbon; and fecal coliforms. The medians of the best-fit statistics for each category were selected to construct generalized cumulative distribution functions for the three treatment variables. For volume reduction and hydrograph extension, interpretation of available data indicates that selection of a Spearman’s rho value that is the average of the median and maximum values for the BMP category may help generate realistic simulation results in SELDM. The median rho value may be selected to help generate realistic simulation results for water-quality treatment variables. MIC statistics were developed for 12 runoff-quality constituents commonly measured in highway and urban runoff studies by using data from 11 BMP categories and more than 167 monitoring sites. Four statistical techniques were applied for estimating MIC values with monitoring data from each site. These techniques produce a range of lower-bound estimates for each site. Four MIC estimators are proposed as alternatives for selecting a value from among the estimates from multiple sites. Correlation analysis indicates that the MIC estimates from multiple sites were weakly correlated with the geometric mean of inflow values, which indicates that there may be a qualitative or semiquantitative link between the inflow quality and the MIC. Correlations probably are weak because the MIC is influenced by the inflow water quality and the capability of each individual BMP site to reduce inflow concentrations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2022

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1973

Geohydrology of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal area, with special reference to the Ocala vicinity

The Cross-Florida Barge Canal route commences at Palatka on the St. Johns River, about 75 miles upstream from the Atlantic Ocean, and extends 110 miles southwestward across Peninsular Florida into deep water in the Gulf of Mexico near Yankeetown. The canal will be equipped with five locks, each 600 feet long and 84 feet wide, and the channel will be a minimum of 12 feet deep and 150 feet wide. From near Ocala northeastward, the canal channel will replace much of the natural channel of the Oklawaha River, and will be excavated into beds of the so-called shallow sand aquifer of Miocene age and younger, which overlies limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Westward from Ocala, most of the canal will be excavated below the potentiometric surface into limestone and dolomite of the Floridan aquifer. Water levels of Rodman, Eureka, and Inglis Pools will be controlled by dams and spillways with the limited exchange of water between the pools and the aquifers. The water levels in the Summit Pools will fluctuate with the natural changes in the ground-water level of the Floridan aquifer, although the stage of the pool will be controlled partly by the stage held in the Eureka Pool. A dynamic inflow-outflow relationship will exist between the Summit Pool and the Floridan aquifer. The Floridan aquifer in the canal area is 1,000 to 1,200 feet thick and consists of limestone and dolomite of middle Eocene Miocene age, including from older to younger, the Lake City, Avon Park, and Ocala limestones plus permeable sandy, dolomitic limestone in the lower part of the Hawthorn Formation. It is possible that most of the flow to the two major springs in the area occurs in the upper 100 feet or so of the aquifer in the Ocala Limestone. The aquifer is underlain by the Oldsmar limestone of early Eocene age and is overlain by sand, clayey sand, clay and shell beds of Miocene through Holocene age, in thickness from a few feet to 300 feet. The permeable beds overlying the Floridan aquifer constitute the shallow aquifer, while the poorly permeable ones act as confining beds where the Floridan aquifer is under artesian conditions. A north-south line drawn separating the head of Silver Springs on the west from the Oklawaha River on the east marks the approximate western limit of a continuous blanket of materials of Miocene-Pliocene(?) age covering the rocks of the Floridan aquifer. East of the line, much of the aquifer is under artesian conditions, particularly in the Oklawaha River valley, although in some areas east of the valley, direct recharge through thick permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) sands occurs. West of the line, only scattered remnants of a once continuous Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover remain. Lack of the cover is a result of erosion on the crest and flank of the Ocala Uplift, a broad northwest-southeast trending anticlinal upwarp, the axis of which is crossed by the canal route in the Dunnellon area. Over most of this area the Floridan aquifer is unconfined and receives direct recharge through a cover of a few tens of feet of sand and clayey sand of Quaternary age. Tensional stresses during the structural evolution of the Ocala Uplift produced an intersecting system of fractures and normal faults in rocks of the Floridan aquifer. The fractures and faults are important controls for orientation of solution channels and, therefore, for development of ground-water circulation patterns. When the system surface streams, which once drained the Barge Canal area, eroded the poorly permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover from the flanks of the Ocala Uplift, surface runoff was reduced and precipitation began to directly infiltrate the underlying limestones. Now only principal streams remain, such as the Oklawaha and Withlacoochee Rivers and a few short tributaries, while one of the most highly developed subsurface drainage systems in the world has evolved in cavernous limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Two of the larger freshwater springs in the world now discharge from the Floridan aquifer in the canal area. Silver Springs near Ocala discharges an average 531 mgd (million gallons per day) down the 4-mile long Silver River, which flows on poorly permeable beds to the Oklawaha River. Rainbow Springs near Dunnellon discharges on average 468 mgd from numerous orifices in the bed of the 5-mile-long Rainbow River, which flows into the Withlacoochee River. The heads of the springs have migrated to their present positions partly because of a tendency of ground-water levels to decline as permeability in the aquifer is increased due to removal of limestone by solution, and because of mechanical erosion of the limestone in the vicinity of the spring heads. Also, points of principal spring discharges have shifted in the past due to changes in ground-water levels in response to changes in sea level. The subsurface drainage system is continuing to evolve today, as evidenced in part by frequent occurrence of new sinkholes and by the presence of significant amounts of calcium bicarbonate in the spring waters. Rodman Pool, at the east end of the canal, is separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable materials. The pool's operating water level will be only a few feet above the potentiometric surface at the downstream end, and at or slightly below the potentiometric surface at the upstream end. Little exchange of water between the Rodman Pool and the Floridan aquifer is expected. Eureka Pool, just upstream from Rodman Pool, will also be separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable beds. However, the stage of the pool will be about 15 feet higher than the natural potentiometric surface at the pool's downstream end, and some seepage into the Floridan aquifer is anticipated through faults and leaky parts of the poorly permeable beds, with a consequent rise in ground-water levels in areas adjacent to the lower end of the pool. Possibilities for particulate contamination of the aquifer will tend to be minimized because of the filtering capacity of the materials through which water must pass to reach the aquifer, although the natural filter will not preclude movement into the aquifer of contaminants which might become dissolved in the pool waters. No significant interchange of water between the pool and the aquifer is expected at the upstream end of the Eureka Pool. Present construction plans indicate an operating stage for Eureka Pool which will range between 38 and 40 feet above mean sea level, although it is possible to dredge the pool deep enough to permit a range in stage of 36 to 40 feet. A backwater effect extending up Silver River from the Eureka Pool is expected to regulate the stage at the head of Silver Springs between 39 and 44 feet above mean sea level if the pool ranges between 36 and 40 feet. If Eureka Pool ranges only between 38 and 40 feet, the range of stage at the head of the springs should be about 41 to 44 feet above mean sea level. From Inglis Lock west, the canal will have direct connection with the Gulf, and canal stage will fluctuate with the Gulf tide. Since the canal stage will be slightly lower than the adjacent ground-water levels along much of the reach, there will be some ground-water inflow to the canal. No significant changes in the existing ground-water regime are expected in the vicinity of Inglis Pool, the first step up in the canal east of the Gulf. Existing ground-water and surface-water levels in the area will not change appreciable, and the natural stage and flow of Rainbow Springs, which will flow by way of Rainbow River into Inglis Pool, should not be affected by canal operations. A possible adverse effect of the canal on the Inglis Pool area could result if sea water is locked up from the Gulf through Inglis Lock. However, the high step of 25 feet at the lock, flushing action of continuous flow from Inglis Pool to the lower reaches of the Withlacoochee River, and use of possible preventive locking procedures should minimize the problem. The potential for adverse effects on the ground-water regime is greatest in the area of the Summit Pool. Through most of the length of the pool, the canal channel will be excavated into limestone of the Floridan aquifer to depths of 12 to 27 feet below the potentiometric surface. Changes that will take place in the ground-water flow system in the Silver Springs drainage area, once the canal is completed, were estimated by flow-net analysis. Variation in aquifer transmissivity was determined by calculating transmissivity in 25 different flow cells surrounding Silver Springs. Transmissivity in the 25 cells averages about 15,600,000 gpd/ft [2,090,000 ft2/day (feet squared)], but transmissivity in the six cells through which the Summit Pool passes ranges from 9,000,000 to 44,000,000 gpd/ft (1,210,000 to 5,900,000 ft2/day). Transmissivity was used to compute static stage of the Summit Pool under given ground-water level conditions. Had the canal existed in May 1968 and had the stage of Eureka Pool been held at 36 feet at the time, the static stage in Summit Pool would have been about 42.1 feet above mean sea level. Thus, a conceptual model of the changes in the potentiometric surface wrought by the finished canal was drawn, and zones of ground-water inflow and outflow were delineated. Most outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer should be limited to one 4-mile-long zone along the north side of the pool, about 5 miles south of Silver Springs. It is estimated that a water volume equivalent to about 8 percent of the daily flow of Silver Springs will enter the Summit Pool each day from the southern one-third of the Silver Springs drainage area. A like amount will reenter the aquifer at the main zone of outflow and move toward Silver Springs at an estimated average velocity of about 200 feet per day, if something close to the natural static stage of the pool is maintained by return pumpage of the lockage losses. At a velocity of 200 feet per day, water from the Summit Pool would discharge at Silver Springs about 140 days later. However, any estimate of velocity in the highly cavernous limestone aquifer in the area should be used with caution, because difficult to measure changes in porosity and thickness of major zones of flow may cause large variations in velocity. If all lockage losses are returned to the Summit Pool by pumping from Eureka Pool, no net loss from the Silver Springs drainage area, except for some evaporation from the water surface in the canal and possible leakage around locks, will result from canal operations. The zone of outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer will be in a natural potentiometric trough, and the zone of inflow will be in a potentiometric ridge area. The equilibrium water level in the pool will tend to be about 1 foot higher than the altitude of the lowest level in the pre-canal potentiometric trough, and about 2 feet lower than the highest level on the pre-canal potentiometric ridge. West of the Silver Springs drainage area just east of Dunnellon Lock, in the area of a local potentiometric high, the water level in the Summit Pool is expected to be about 15 feet below the natural potentiometric surface. In most areas 2 to 3 miles away from the Summit Pool, effects of the canal on the natural potentiometric surface should be slight. The stage of the Summit Pool, judging from the 36-year record for ground-water level changes and the anticipated indirect effect of the controlled stage in Eureka Pool, should have a maximum of about 10.5 feet with a maximum water level of about 51.5 feet above mean sea level and a minimum of about 41.0 feet above mean sea level. Of particular importance in the Summit Pool is an implementation of well planned construction and operational procedures designed to minimize risks of ground-water contamination.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Simulation of groundwater flow and streamflow depletion in the Branch Brook, Merriland River, and parts of the Mousam River watersheds in southern Maine

Watersheds of three streams, the Mousam River, Branch Brook, and Merriland River in southeastern Maine were investigated from 2010 through 2013 under a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Maine Geological Survey. The Branch Brook watershed previously had been deemed “at risk” by the Maine Geological Survey because of the proportionally large water withdrawals compared to estimates of the in-stream flow requirements for habitat protection. The primary groundwater withdrawals in the study area include a water-supply well in the headwaters of the system and three water-supply wells in the coastal plain near the downstream end of the system. A steady-state groundwater flow model was used to understand the movement of water within the system, to evaluate the water budget and the effect of groundwater withdrawals on streamflows, and to understand streamflow depletion in relation to the State of Maine’s requirements to maintain in-stream flows for habitat protection. Delineation of the simulated groundwater divides compared to the surface-water divides suggests that the groundwater divides in the headwater areas do not exactly correspond to the surface-water divides. Under both pumping and non-pumping conditions, groundwater flows from the headwaters of the Branch Brook watershed into the Mousam River watershed. Pumping in the Mousam River watershed captures a small amount of groundwater from the Branch Brook basin. The cumulative effect of groundwater withdrawals on base flows in two rivers in the study area (Branch Brook and the Merriland River) was evaluated using the groundwater flow model. Streamflow depletion in the headwaters of Branch Brook was 0.12 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) for the steady-state simulation, or about 10 percent of the average base flow at that location. Downstream on Branch Brook, the total streamflow depletion from all the wells was 0.59 ft 3 /s, or 3 percent of the average base flow at that location. In the Merriland River downstream from the Merriland River well, the total amount of streamflow depletion was 0.6 ft 3 /s, or about 7 percent of the average base flow. The groundwater model was used to evaluate several different scenarios that could affect streamflow and groundwater discharging to the rivers and streams in the study area. The scenarios were (1) no pumping from the water-supply wells; (2) current pumping from the water-supply wells, but simulated drought conditions (25 percent reduction in recharge); (3) current recharge, but with increased pumping from the large water-supply wells; and (4) drought conditions and increased pumping combined. Simulations of increased pumping in the water-supply wells resulted in streamflow depletion in the headwaters of Branch Brook increasing to 16 percent of the headwater base flow. Simulated increases in the pumping in the coastal plain wells increased the amount of streamflow depletion to 6 percent of the flow in Branch Brook and to 8 percent of the flow in the Merriland River. The additional stress of a drought imposed on the model (25 percent less recharge) had a substantial impact on streamflows, as expected. If the simulated drought occurred simultaneously with an increase in pumping, the base flows would be reduced 48 percent in the headwaters of Branch Brook, compared to the no-pumping scenario. Downstream in Branch Brook, the total reduction in flow would be 29 percent of the simulated base flows in the no-pumping scenario, and in the Merriland River, the reduction would be 33 percent of the base flows in the no-pumping scenario. The study evaluated two different methods of calculating in-stream flow requirements for Branch Brook and the Merriland River—a set of statewide equations used to calculate monthly median flows and the MOVE.1 record-extension technique used on site-specific streamflow measurements. The August median in-stream flow requirement in the Merriland River was calculated as 7.18 ft 3 /s using the statewide equations but was 3.07 ft 3 /s using the MOVE.1 analysis. In Branch Brook, the August median in-stream flow requirements were calculated as 20.3 ft 3 /s using the statewide equations and 11.8 ft 3 /s using the MOVE.1 analysis. In each case, using site-specific data yields an estimate of in-stream flow that is much lower than an estimate the statewide equations provide.

Maine↗

USGS2012

Simulation of groundwater conditions and streamflow depletion to evaluate water availability in a Freeport, Maine, watershed

In order to evaluate water availability in the State of Maine, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Maine Geological Survey began a cooperative investigation to provide the first rigorous evaluation of watersheds deemed "at risk" because of the combination of instream flow requirements and proportionally large water withdrawals. The study area for this investigation includes the Harvey and Merrill Brook watersheds and the Freeport aquifer in the towns of Freeport, Pownal, and Yarmouth, Maine. A numerical groundwater- flow model was used to evaluate groundwater withdrawals, groundwater-surface-water interactions, and the effect of water-management practices on streamflow. The water budget illustrates the effect that groundwater withdrawals have on streamflow and the movement of water within the system. Streamflow measurements were made following standard USGS techniques, from May through September 2009 at one site in the Merrill Brook watershed and four sites in the Harvey Brook watershed. A record-extension technique was applied to estimate long-term monthly streamflows at each of the five sites. The conceptual model of the groundwater system consists of a deep, confined aquifer (the Freeport aquifer) in a buried valley that trends through the middle of the study area, covered by a discontinuous confining unit, and topped by a thin upper saturated zone that is a mixture of sandy units, till, and weathered clay. Harvey and Merrill Brooks flow southward through the study area, and receive groundwater discharge from the upper saturated zone and from the deep aquifer through previously unknown discontinuities in the confining unit. The Freeport aquifer gets most of its recharge from local seepage around the edges of the confining unit, the remainder is received as inflow from the north within the buried valley. Groundwater withdrawals from the Freeport aquifer in the study area were obtained from the local water utility and estimated for other categories. Overall, the public-supply withdrawals (105.5 million gallons per year (Mgal/yr)) were much greater than those for any other category, being almost 7 times greater than all domestic well withdrawals (15.3 Mgal/yr). Industrial withdrawals in the study area (2.0 Mgal/yr) are mostly by a company that withdraws from an aquifer at the edge of the Merrill Brook watershed. Commercial withdrawals are very small (1.0 Mgal/yr), and no irrigation or other agricultural withdrawals were identified in this study area. A three-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed to evaluate stream-aquifer interactions and streamflow depletion from pumping, to help refine the conceptual model, and to predict changes in streamflow resulting from changes in pumping and recharge. Groundwater levels and flow in the Freeport aquifer study area were simulated with the three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater-flow modeling code, MODFLOW-2005. Study area hydrology was simulated with a 3-layer model, under steady-state conditions. The groundwater model was used to evaluate changes that could occur in the water budgets of three parts of the local hydrologic system (the Harvey Brook watershed, the Merrill Brook watershed, and the buried aquifer from which pumping occurs) under several different climatic and pumping scenarios. The scenarios were (1) no pumping well withdrawals; (2) current (2009) pumping, but simulated drought conditions (20-percent reduction in recharge); (3) current (2009) recharge, but a 50-percent increase in pumping well withdrawals for public supply; and (4) drought conditions and increased pumping combined. In simulated drought situations, the overall recharge to the buried valley is about 15 percent less and the total amount of streamflow in the model area is reduced by about 19 percent. Without pumping, infiltration to the buried valley aquifer around the confining unit decreased by a small amount (0.05 million gallons per day (Mgal/d)), and discharge to the streams increased by about 8 percent (0.3 Mgal/d). A 50-percent increase in pumping resulted in a simulated decrease in streamflow discharge of about 4 percent (0.14 Mgal/d). Streamflow depletion in Harvey Brook was evaluated by use of the numerical groundwater-flow model and an analytical model. The analytical model estimated negligible depletion from Harvey Brook under current (2009) pumping conditions, whereas the numerical model estimated that flow to Harvey Brook decreased 0.38 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) because of the pumping well withdrawals. A sensitivity analysis of the analytical model method showed that conducting a cursory evaluation using an analytical model of streamflow depletion using available information may result in a very wide range in results, depending on how well the hydraulic conductivity variables and aquifer geometry of the system are known, and how well the aquifer fits the assumptions of the model. Using the analytical model to evaluate the streamflow depletion with an incomplete understanding of the hydrologic system gave results that seem unlikely to reflect actual streamflow depletion in the Freeport aquifer study area. In contrast, the groundwater-flow model was a more robust method of evaluating the amount of streamflow depletion that results from withdrawals in the Freeport aquifer, and could be used to evaluate streamflow depletion in both streams. Simulations of streamflow without pumping for each measurement site were compared to the calibratedmodel streamflow (with pumping), the difference in the total being streamflow depletion. Simulations without pumping resulted in a simulated increase in the steady-state flow rate of 0.38 ft 3 /s in Harvey Brook and 0.01 ft 3 /s in Merrill Brook. This translates into a streamflow-depletion amount equal to about 8.5 percent of the steady-state base flow in Harvey Brook, and an unmeasurable amount of depletion in Merrill Brook. If pumping was increased by 50 percent and recharge reduced by 20 percent, the amount of streamflow depletion in Harvey Brook could reach 1.41 ft 3 /s.

Maine↗

USGS2023

Evaluating management alternatives for Wyoming elk feedgrounds in consideration of chronic wasting disease

Executive Summary The authors used decision and modeling analyses to evaluate management alternatives for a decision on whether to permit Cervus canadensis (elk) feeding on two sites on Bridger-Teton National Forest, Dell Creek and Forest Park. Supplemental feeding of elk could increase the transmission of chronic wasting disease (CWD) locally and disease spread regionally, potentially impacting elk populations over time with wider implications for Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) populations and hunting, tourism, and regional revenue. Supplemental feeding is thought to improve overwinter elk survival and reduce the commingling of elk with cattle during months when brucellosis transmission risk is highest. We worked with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to identify their fundamental objectives and associated performance metrics related to this feedground decision. We then developed disease and habitat selection models to quantify the effect of four management alternatives on select performance metrics. The four alternatives were to continue to permit feeding, phaseout permits to feed in three years, permit feeding on an emergency basis, or stop permitting feeding. In this report, we present methods and summarized results on disease and habitat selection models and summaries of other performance metrics analyzed by BIO-WEST, Inc. and Cirrus Ecological Solutions as part of an Environmental Impact Statement. Data from Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) supported the assumption that supplemental elk feeding allows for larger elk populations in a region. We documented that herd units (HU) without feedgrounds had 23 percent lower densities of elk per area of winter range when compared against HUs with feedgrounds, after accounting for differences in sightability of elk during counts on and off feedgrounds. Thus, throughout our analyses, we assumed feedground closures would reduce elk carrying capacity resulting in an average decline of previously fed elk population segments by 23 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [11 percent, 35 percent]) by year 20. Most of that decline occurred within the first few years after a feedground ceases to operate. We used a panel of CWD experts to help estimate CWD trans-mission in fed and unfed elk population segments. In aggregate, the expert panel estimated that median values of direct and indirect transmission of CWD are expected to be 1.9 and 4 times higher, respectively, in fed elk populations compared to unfed elk. We used these disease transmission estimates in combination with local elk demographic rates and carrying capacity estimates to project disease and population dynamics. In year 20, we predicted CWD prevalence would increase to 42 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [29 percent, 55 percent]), and 13 percent (5th and 95th percentiles = [4 percent, 26 percent]) on average for fed and unfed elk population segments, respectively, given a starting prevalence of 1.6 percent. The prevalence estimates for the unfed elk population segments are in the range of previous observations of CWD in elk in the western United States. The average CWD prevalence from 2016 to 2018 in the unfed elk population of Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota was 18 percent overall but up to 30 percent in some regions (Sargeant and others, 2021). Meanwhile, CWD prevalence in the Iron Mountain and Laramie Peak elk herds in Wyoming from 2016 to 2018 was 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively, despite being present since at least 2002 (Wyoming Game and Fish Department, 2020b). From 2016 to 2020, elk that were fed at Dell Creek and Forest Park constituted on average 12–20 percent of the total elk on their respective HUs. As a result, the differences between management alternatives are modest when considering the closure of only one feedground on a HU. The no feeding alternative for Forest Park resulted in a CWD prevalence of 17 percent (SD = 7 percent) in the Afton HU compared to 20 percent (SD = 7 percent) with continued feeding by year 20. In the Upper Green River HU, no feeding on Dell Creek resulted in a CWD prevalence of 27 percent (SD = 6 percent) compared to 30 percent (SD = 5 percent) with continued feeding. In terms of disease-associated mortality, we predicted the closure of Forest Park and Dell Creek feedgrounds would reduce the total number of CWD mortalities by 9 percent in the Upper Green River HU and 26 percent in the Afton HU during the 20-year timespan. Our spatial analyses predicted that management alternative effects vary by HU as a function of private property and other wildlife winter ranges proximity relative to feedground location. The predicted number of elk abortions on private land, as a proxy for brucellosis risk to cattle, may increase by 8–21 percent in the absence of feeding at Dell Creek and Forest Park. Eight feedgrounds are located on Bridger-Teton National Forest, all of which have permits that have expired or will expire prior to 2028. In addition, WGFD could change their management of feedgrounds given new information; therefore, we also assessed the cumulative effects of continued feeding, phaseout, and no feeding management alternatives across five HUs south of Jackson, Wyoming (Afton HU, Fall Creek HU, Piney HU, Pinedale HU, and Upper Green River HU). These five HUs ranged from about 41 to 85 percent of the elk herd using feedgrounds, which corresponded to a CWD prevalence at year 20 of 23–34 percent if all feedgrounds in those five HUs remained open relative to 12 to 14 percent if all feedgrounds were closed. We predicted feedground closures may result in immediate reductions in population size relative to alternatives that continue feeding (for example, continued feeding and emergency feeding alternatives); however, over longer periods of time, CWD-associated mortality leads to larger population reductions. The no feeding alternative resulted in higher elk population sizes compared to the continued feeding alternative after about 10 years of implementation. Delayed action under a phaseout alternative resulted in increasing the CWD prevalence to 20 percent relative to 12 to 14 percent, on average, without feeding on HUs with a large population of fed elk such as the Upper Green River HU. Summarizing our cumulative results across all five of the analyzed HUs, we predicted continued feeding will lead to fewer elk by year 20 (mean = 8,300, standard deviation [SD] = 740) compared to no feeding at U.S. Department of Agri-culture Forest Service sites (10,700, SD = 890). The closure of all feedgrounds was projected to result in the largest elk populations at year 20 (12,500, SD = 980). No feeding at all sites also resulted in the largest cumulative harvest of 57,700 (SD = 2,600) compared to 51,100 (SD = 3,800) for continued feeding at all current feedground sites on the five HUs. Continued feeding also resulted in the lowest brucellosis costs to producers ($194,600, SD = $11,500) compared to no feeding on all feedgrounds ($243,000, SD = $13,700). Assuming moderate reductions in hunter interest because of increasing CWD prevalence in elk, we predicted that no feeding resulted in regional revenues generated by hunting activities of $190 million (SD = $10 million) compared to $173 million (SD = $10 million) for continued feeding over the 20-year timeframe. Recent CWD detections in mule deer and elk in Grand Teton National Park has elevated the importance of the cur-rent decision on whether, and how, to permit elk feeding on Dell Creek and Forest Park and the management of the other feedgrounds. Aggressive male harvest has slowed, but not stopped, the increasing prevalence of CWD in mule deer (Conner and others, 2021). It is unclear whether harvest management can be an effective tool to slow the spread of CWD in elk. There are also no effective treatments or vaccines for CWD, and it is unlikely that any will be developed that can be easily deployed in the near future. Thus, reducing artificial aggregations is one of the few management approaches suggested by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (Almberg and others, 2017). Future surveillance and monitoring can be designed to resolve uncertainties that can improve future decision-making. If feedgrounds close, research could quantify elk population reductions in the absence of feeding, the redistribution of fed elk to other places, or the consequences of elk movement on private property. If feedgrounds remain open, research could assess how rapidly CWD spreads in artificial aggregations of elk; however, surveillance programs would need to be designed with sufficient power to detect initial changes of CWD prevalence. Delaying action on feedground management was projected to be costly. Results of the phaseout alternative relative to the no feeding alternative suggested a 3-year delay was enough for substantial long-term changes in CWD prevalence. The long-term persistence of infectious CWD prions in the environment suggests that feedground management decisions may have long-lasting consequences. Our results indicated tradeoffs in the ability of a management agency to achieve all their objectives, and all management alternatives resulted in significant reductions in elk population size. This report contains the foundational elements for formal decision analysis methods, which can be implemented to help decision makers transparently evaluate the consequences of decision alternatives and identify the set of actions that best achieve agency and stakeholder priorities.

Wyoming↗

USGS1998

Detailed study of selenium and selected constituents in water, bottom sediment, soil, and biota associated with irrigation drainage in the San Juan River area, New Mexico, 1991-95

In response to increasing concern about the quality of irrigation drainage and its potential effects on fish, wildlife, and human health, the U.S. Department of the Interior began the National Irrigation Water Quality Program (NIWQP) to investigate these concerns at irrigation projects sponsored by the Department. The San Juan River area in northwestern New Mexico was one of the areas designated for study. Study teams composed of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bureau of Indian Affairs collected water, bottom-sediment, soil, and biological samples at 61 sites in the San Juan River area during 1993-94. Supplemental data collection conducted during 1991-95 by the Bureau of Indian Affairs and its contractor extended the time period and sampling sites available for analysis. Analytical chemistry performed on samples indicated that most potentially toxic elements other than selenium generally were not high enough to be of concern to fish, wildlife, and human health. Element concentrations in some water, bottom-sediment, soil, and biological samples exceeded applicable standards and criteria suggested by researchers in current literature. Selenium concentrations in water samples from 28 sites in the study area exceeded the 2-microgramper-liter (lg/L) wildlife-habitat standard. Vanadium concentrations in water exceeded the 100-Kg/L standard for livestock-drinking water at one site. In biota, selenium and aluminum concentrations regularly equaled or exceeded avian dietary threshold concentrations. In bottom sediment and soil, element concentrations above the upper limit of the baseline range for western soils were: selenium, 24 exceedances; lead, 2 exceedances; molybdenum, 2 exceedances;strontium, 4 exceedances; and zinc, 4 exceedances. Concentrations of total selenium in bottom-sediment and soil samples were significantly greater for Cretaceous than for non-Cretaceous soil types in the study area and were generally similar for habitats within and outside irrigation-affected areas. Mean and median total-selenium concentrations in samples from areas with Cretaceous soil types were 4.6 and 2.2 micrograms per gram (ps/g), respectively. Mean and median total-selenium concentrations in samples from areas with non-Cretaceous soil types were 0.6 and 0.15 pg/g, respectively. Samples from the study area had low concentrations of organic constituents. Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls were detected in a few biological samples at low concentrations. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) compounds were not detected in whole-water samples collected using conventional water-sampling techniques. In tests involving the use of semipermeable-membrane devices to supplement conventional water assays for PAH's, low concentrations of PAH's were found at several locations in the Hammond Irrigation Supply Canal, but were not detected in the Hammond ponds at the downstream reach of the Hammond irrigation service area. PAH compounds do not appear to reach the San Juan River through the Hammond Canal. Data indicate that water samples from irrigation-drainage-affected habitats had increased mean selenium concentrations compared with samples from irrigation-delivery habitat. The mean selenium concentration in water was greatest at seeps and tributaries draining irrigated land (17 μg/L); less in irrigation drains and in ponds on irrigated land (61.tg/L); and least in backwater, the San Juan River, and irrigation-supply water (0.5 - 0.6 μg/L). Statistical tests imply that irrigation significantly increases selenium concentrations in water samples when a Department of the Interior irrigation project is developed on selenium-rich sediments. Water samples from sites with Cretaceous soils had significantly greater selenium concentrations than water samples from sites with non-Cretaceous soils. Water samples from Department of the Interior project irrigation-drainage sites developed on Cretaceous soils contained a mean selenium concentration about 10 times greater than those in samples from Department of the Interior project sites developed on non-Cretaceous soils. Selenium was much less concentrated in water than in bottom sediment, soil, or biota in the study area. The range in concentrations of dissolved selenium in water was less than 1 ptg/L to 37 1.1g/L (less than 1 to 37 parts per billion). The range in concentrations of total selenium in bottom sediment and soil was less than 0.1 to 23lig/g (less than 100 to 23,000 parts per billion). The range in concentration of selenium in biota was less than 0.1 to 24.0 fig/g (less than 100 to 24,000 parts per billion). Data indicated that bioaccumulation and leaching from soil were the important processes at the study area that lead to elevated levels of selenium. Other processes examined included: (1) evapoconcentration of selenium; (2) atmospheric deposition of aerosols containing selenium; and (3) contamination of surface water by point-source or non-point-source discharges. Selenium concentrations in biological samples were evaluated by a number of variables including: (1) media sampled (emergent and submergent plants, nektonic and benthic invertebrates, omnivore/herbivore and carnivore fish, and terrestrial and aquatic amphibians); (2) habitat (San Juan River main-stem reaches, backwaters, tributary reaches, irrigation delivery or drainage canals, and ponds); (3) irrigation project area and reference sites; and (4) soil type (non-Cretaceous or Cretaceous soils). Graphical techniques and nonparametric statistical tests were applied to determine the influence of selected physiographic variables on selenium concentrations in biological samples collected in the San Juan River area. Species of sucker and of smaller fish contained significantly higher selenium concentrations in the upstream portion of the river where a productive community of plants and animals is found that is associated with warming, nutrient-rich waters discharged from an upstream reservoir. Selenium concentrations in algae, odonates, and mosquitofish collected from both irrigation-drain and pond habitats underlain by Cretaceous soils were significantly greater than in those collected from similar habitats underlain by non-Cretaceous soils. Investigators conclude that the major factor affecting the variability of selenium accumulation in biota at aquatic habitats was the presence of underlying Cretaceous soils. Median selenium concentrations were less than 2 lAg/g for plant samples, less than 7 μg/g for invertebrate samples, and less than 6 lAg/g for whole-fish samples collected from aquatic habitats underlain by non-Cretaceous soils. Similar samples collected from aquatic habitats underlain by Cretaceous soils contained median selenium concentrations two to five times greater. Leaching of selenium from Cretaceous soils in the San Juan River area increases the accumulation of selenium concentrations in the biota and thereby increases the exposure and potential health risks associated with selenium to migratory birds, fish, and other wildlife that use these aquatic habitats extensively. Aquatic habitats presenting the greatest average exposure to excess selenium concentrations in the diets of resident wildlife are from consumption of plants, invertebrates, and fish at irrigation-drain habitats underlain by Cretaceous soils. Of the irrigation projects evaluated in the San Juan River area, the highest median selenium concentrations in algae, cattail leaves, odonate nymphs, mosquitofish, and leopard frog samples from the study area were collected from the east hogback irrigation drain.

New Mexico↗