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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Effects of rearing environment on behavior of captive-reared whooping cranes

Whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) are 1 of the most endangered bird species in North America. In 1999 the Whooping Crane Eastern Partnership was formed to establish a migratory population of whooping cranes in eastern North America. These efforts have been extremely successful in terms of adult survival but reproductive success post-release has been low. One hypothesis developed to explain such low reproductive success is that captive-rearing techniques fail to prepare the birds to be effective parents. Captive-reared whooping cranes at the U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Maryland, are either reared by humans in crane costumes or by surrogate conspecific adults. We hypothesized that the 2 captive-rearing techniques differentially shaped chick behavior. To test this, we measured chick behavior daily as well as when chicks were placed in novel environments. Twice per day, every day, 5-minute focal observations were conducted on each chick. When they were introduced to a novel environment, 10-minute focal observations were conducted within 1 hour of introduction. The 2 groups differed significantly: costume-reared chicks were, on average, more stationary than parent-reared birds. These data suggest that future research should be done to determine whether or not rearing technique could have longterm effects on post-release behavior and reproductive success

Conference Paper↗
USGS1992

Ecology of band-tailed pigeons in Oregon

The ecology of band-tailed pigeons ( Columba fasciata ) was investigated in western Oregon to assess the roles of survival and recruitment to population status and the relation of food, minerals, and diet to reproduction strategy. Band-tailed pigeons congregated at mineral deposits to consume minerals from mid-June to mid-September. Males generally arrived and departed between daylight and 1000 h and females between 0930 and 1200 h, the inverse of the nest attentive schedules for the sexes. The pigeons used one or several adjacent mineral sites throughout the summer and most returned to the same mineral site in subsequent years. Band-tailed pigeons were resident from April through September; migration apparently did not begin before late September. Three indirect sources of evidence indicated that fledging began in June, reached a peak in mid- August, and continued until late September. Second year (SY) band-tailed pigeons apparently began nesting later than and were about one-third as productive as adults. In Oregon, most of the adult population could fledge as many as two young over the 100-110-day nesting period, resulting in a maximum potential recruitment of 47-50% juveniles. We estimated that the fall population contained about 23% juveniles, 12% yearlings, and 65% adults. Mean annual survival of adults was 63.7%, but was year-specific. To maintain a stable population with the estimated survival rates required production near the biotic potential (40.8%). Conversely, a stable population could be attained with the estimated rate of recruitment (23%) and high but realistic rates of survival (adults, 83%; juveniles, 68%). Counts of band-tailed pigeons at mineral sites in Oregon indicated that the population had undergone two periods of modest increase (2.4-7.1% per year) and two periods of sharp decline (10.4-11.1% per year). In 1988 the population index was only 34% of the 1950-88 average. Harvest of band-tailed pigeons in the three Pacific Coast states averaged 414,000 from 1957 to 1983; about 55% of the harvest took place in California, 23% in Washington, and 22% in Oregon. In Oregon, about 65% of the harvest took place in the first 10 days of September and 40% was at mineral sites. Fewer juveniles were shot at mineral sites (13%) than at feeding areas (25%). Hunting at mineral sites was directed at experienced breeders and may be particularly detrimental to the population. However, the overall effect of hunting on abundance was not determined. Band-tailed pigeons fed extensively on elder ( Sambucus spp.) and cascara buckthorn ( Rhamnus purshiana ) berries while nesting. The emergence of Pacific red elder (S. callicarpa) berries in June provided the food resources necessary for initiation of reproduction in Oregon, and probably throughout the Northwest. Elder berries contain little calcium (0.06-0.12%), therefore, the pigeons in the Northwest may require a mineral supplement in their diet. Mineral sites may be the scarcest resource required for reproduction by band-tailed pigeons in the Northwest.

Oregon↗
USGS2020

Seabird synthesis

Overall, the status of seabirds was fair to good in the WGOA in 2020, with limited data available from Middleton Island, Cook Inlet, and the Kodiak Archipelago (Figure 63). Colony attendance remains low in some populations compared to historic levels, and some colonies were newly abandoned. However, when birds did arrive to breed, reproductive success generally appeared fair to good for fish-eating, surface-feeding birds and fish-eating, diving birds. There was spatial variability in colony attendance and reproductive success, with Middleton Island birds performing more strongly than Kodiak Island or Cook Inlet. Middleton Island populations from both these groups experienced their strongest breeding seasons since the marine heatwave began in 2014, suggesting an increase in the availability of small schooling fish in that region of WGOA. No large-scale mortality event was recorded based on monthly beach surveys in the WGOA. This year’s integrated approach to reporting seabird status is less comparable to previous Ecosystem Status Reports, as the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge’s seabird reproductive success time series were not updated, due to COVID-19 related survey cancellations.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Parental infanticide by egg destruction in Red-billed Tropicbirds Phaethon aethereus on the Caribbean island of Sint Eustatius

Avian reproduction is a process that requires extensive energetic input by parents, particularly in pelagic seabirds. Parental infanticide has rarely been reported in pelagic seabirds, and its frequency among taxa is therefore difficult to determine. Using data from remote cameras, two cases of probable parental infanticide in Red-billed Tropicbirds Phaethon aethereus were captured on Sint Eustatius in the 2021–2022 breeding season. Both cases are presented with images collected from remote cameras as evidence. While appearing counterproductive, parental infanticide may provide an alternative reproduction strategy that favors lifetime reproductive success over short term success.

Article↗
USGS2023

Evaluating the spatial and temporal distribution and ecology of Bighead and Silver Carp and native fishes of the lower Red River basin

We investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of Bighead Carp and Silver Carp (hereafter Carp) in the lower Red River basin of Arkansas. Our study objectives were: 1) determine the spatial and temporal extent of Bighead and Silver Carp in the Red River basin of Arkansas; 2) determine habitat associations of large river fish assemblages; and 3) summarize the demographics of Bighead and Silver Carp. We sampled 67 reaches in the lower Red River and its major tributaries for juvenile Carp and other small-bodied fishes (24 of the reaches were in the Arkansas portion of the Red River). We conducted repeated surveys in these reaches where the reaches were sampled 2-3 times over approximately 2 years representing 242 surveys (95 surveys in Arkansas). We completed adult Carp and native fish assemblage sampling across 61 reaches (22 reaches in Arkansas) where we also repeated surveys at these locations (245 total surveys, 100 surveys completed in Arkansas during the reporting period). We captured the most large-bodied fishes (including Carp) using gillnets and electrofishing, whereas fyke nets and seine hauls collected mainly smaller-bodied fishes. Hoop nets captured fewer fishes when compared to other gear types. We sampled 120,072 fishes, comprising 70 species and 41 genera, from the mainstem Red River in Arkansas. We used data associated with the entire catchment (including OK and TX data) to model the occupancy of adult fishes including both carp species. Carp tended to occupy reaches with the presence of slackwater habitat, that were deeper and narrower (lower habitat complexity), with higher discharge conditions, and were positively associated with chlorophyll-a concentrations. Adult and juvenile assemblage structure varied with reach scale attributes with notable differences among some taxonomically similar species. No carp under the age of 3 were sampled in the catchment. Bighead Carp and Silver Carp in the Red River catchment appear to live longer and grow larger than other populations. Silver Carp and Bighead Carp in the lower Red River had a theoretical maximum length (L_∞) of 920 and 1348-mm TL, respectively. The oldest sampled Silver Carp and Bighead Carp were age 14 and 17, respectively. Bighead Carp growth was positively associated with warmer air temperatures and negatively associated with discharge variability. Similarly, Silver Carp growth was positively associated with the warm air temperature and negatively associated with discharge variability. However, Silver Carp growth was also positively related to high discharge conditions and the variability of air temperature. Silver Carp annual mortality was relatively low and recruitment into the population appeared steady. It appears that Carp are likely coming from another catchment, have only limited or periodic successful reproduction in the study area, or spawn downriver in LA. Continued monitoring for reproductive success would be helpful. Moreover, if the goal is to greatly reduce or eliminate carp, then strategies to prevent further immigration would be ideal before reproduction occurs or becomes more successful. Targeted removal may then be useful for reducing numbers already in the catchment; however, there are also oxbow lakes that contain carp but appear only connected to the river during major floods (i.e., possible source locations).

Cooperator Science Series↗
USGS2024

An analytical approach for simulating effects of avalanches on mountain goat population dynamics: Implications for management and conservation

Mountain environments with snow avalanche hazard cover about 6% of Earth’s land area and occur on all continents. Whereas human risks associated with avalanche hazard have been widely studied, little is known about how avalanche activity affects population dynamics in mountain wildlife. Globally, 32 species of mountain ungulates across 70 countries occupy avalanche-prone terrain. Avalanches comprise the leading cause of mortality in coastal Alaskan mountain goats (mean = 36%, range = 23 - 65%, depending on area), and disproportionately remove prime-aged individuals from populations. The implications of such rates and patterns of mortality on population growth rate are likely to be significant given the species’ low reproductive productivity, but further clarity is needed. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a sex- and age-specific population modeling approach that integrates both reproduction and mortality to simulate the effects of avalanche-caused mortality on population growth rate across a range of empirically-observed states of avalanche-caused mortality (minimum, mean, maximum). Simulations were conducted to illustrate model functionality, and also provide insight about potential avalanche impacts on population demographic processes. For example, when severe avalanche years occur populations can experience significant additive mortality and declines (up to 15%). Due to low reproductive rates and slow life-history strategy of the species, such impacts can lead to long demographic recovery times (up to 11 years). From a species conservation perspective, such impacts are striking, and highlight the utility of employing a quantitative modeling approach to predict possible effects of avalanches on mountain ungulate population dynamics and viability. Our work explicitly builds upon recent findings about the importance of avalanches on mountain-adapted animal populations, and associated implications for the cultural and ecological communities that depend on them.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Climate change implications for the conservation of amphibians in tropical environments.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources want to develop a plan of actions to protect 12 species of coqui frogs (Eleutherodactylus spp.) that are currently considered at risk of being considered threatened or endangered, requiring additional protections under the Endangered Species Act. Actions center on two possible adaptation strategies: a) translocations to suitable, unoccupied habitat, and b) identifying climate-resilient habitats to ensure the persistence of species. Knowledge required to implement these strategies includes understanding how microhabitat and microclimatic factors – the local environmental conditions around individual frogs influence their occupancy (distribution), abundance, and reproduction; these were estimated by focusing on four representative species (E. wightmanae, E. brittoni, E. antillensis, and E. coqui). The abundance of all species but E. antillensis was positively and strongly influenced by moisture levels. As expected, E. antillensis exhibited an opposite relationship. Similarly, the reproductive activity of E. coqui was influenced by higher relative humidity and the presence of a chorus of other individuals. We found that our four focal species were not affected (e.g., abundance, reproduction) by the passing of hurricane Maria in September 2017, possibly because fallen debris creates conditions of increased food and shelter. Our findings help to assess habitat suitability, potential climate refuges, and inform timing for managed translocations.

Final Report↗
USGS2003

A review of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) restoration in Lake Ontario from an early life history perspective

The authors conclude that small numbers of lake trout spawned successfully each year during 1992-97 in Lake Ontario, although this has yet to result in a trend of increasing natural reproduction. Juxtaposed with the high abundance of mature fish (Selgeby et al., 1995), the situation in Lake Ontario suggests a reduction in reproductive efficiency. This could result from mortality factors that may to a certain extent be density independent because recruitment has remained flat in the face of increasing spawner abundance. According to RESTORE, such factors are likely acting during the first year of life. Accordingly, the authors herin review the evidence that former barriers to lake trout reproduction in Lake Ontario that act as early-life-stage bottlenecks have been removed. In addition, the authors review other potential new barriers for which there has only recently been enough information to judge their relative importance.

Book chapter↗
USGS2001

Toxicity and bioavailability of metals in the Missouri River adjacent to a lead refinery

This study is an evaluation of the potential environmental impacts of contaminated groundwater from the ASARCO metals refining facility adjacent to the Missouri River in Omaha, Nebraska. Surface waters, sediments, and sediment pore waters were collected from the Burt-Izard drain, which transects the facility, and from the Missouri River adjacent to the facility. Groundwater was also collected from the facility. Waters and sediments were analyzed for inorganic contaminants, and the toxicity of the waters was evaluated with the Ceriodaphnia dubia 7-day test. Concentrations of several elemental contaminants were highly elevated in the groundwater, but not in river sediment pore waters. Lead concentrations were moderately elevated in whole sediment at one site, but lead concentrations in pore waters were low due to apparent sequestration by acid-volatile sulfides. The groundwater sample was highly toxic to C. dubia , causing 100% mortality. Even at the lowest groundwater concentration tested (6.25%) C. dubia survival was reduced; however, at that concentration, reproduction was not significantly different from upstream porewater reference samples. Sediment pore waters were not toxic, except reproduction in pore water collected from one downstream site was somewhat reduced. The decrease in reproduction could not be attributed to measured elemental contaminants.

Nebraska↗
USGS2018

Modelling effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish extinction risk and population dynamics

Hydrological alteration, which may be exacerbated by climate change, is known to facilitate aquatic species invasion. Altered hydrology, invasive species, and the additive effects of these stressors pose a threat to aquatic biodiversity. Understanding extinction risk in the context of these stressors is crucial for prioritizing conservation efforts. As case studies, three narrow‐ranged endemic crayfish species of conservation concern ( Faxonius marchandi , Faxonius roberti , and Cambarus hubbsi ) in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri, USA, were used to examine the effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish population dynamics. The objectives of this study were to model the population dynamics of these imperilled species, assess how these populations may be affected under increased invasion effects and intensified drought, determine potential refuge effects, and examine the sensitivity of quasi‐extinction to model parameters. ramas‐metapop was used to construct stage‐based demographic models. Terminal extinction risk, median time to quasi‐extinction, and metapopulation occupancy were used to assess population viability under different scenarios. Cambarus hubbsi appears to be highly susceptible to decline if survival rates are reduced by simulated drought, as they have low reproductive potential and mature slowly. Models indicated that potential refuges allow F. roberti and C. hubbsi to persist, even when invasion and drought effects were extreme. Conversely, barriers to dispersal for F. marchandi led to reduced quasi‐extinction times and the greatest extinction risk under most invasion scenarios. Quasi‐extinction was most sensitive to changes in juvenile survival for all species examined, which indicates that improved estimates of stage‐specific demographic parameters for crayfish will improve model predictions. An increased understanding of the mechanisms of displacement of native crayfish by invasive crayfish is needed for most crayfish species. Limiting the spread of invasive species, maintaining natural habitat and hydrological regimes, and gaining insight into life histories and demographic parameters will increase the ability to conserve endemic and imperilled crayfish.

Arkansas, Missouri↗
USGS2018

Neonicotinoid insecticides negatively affect performance measures of non‐target terrestrial arthropods: a meta‐analysis

Neonicotinoid insecticides are currently the fastest‐growing and most widely used insecticide class worldwide. Valued for their versatility in application, these insecticides may cause deleterious effects in a range of non‐target (beneficial) arthropods. However, it remains unclear whether strong patterns exist in terms of their major effects, if broad measures of arthropod performance are negatively affected, or whether different functional groups are equally vulnerable. Here, we present a meta‐analysis of 372 observations from 44 field and laboratory studies that describe neonicotinoid effects on 14 arthropod orders across five broad performance measures: abundance, behavior, condition, reproductive success, and survival. Across studies, neonicotinoids negatively affected all performance metrics evaluated; however, magnitude of the effects varied. Arthropod behavior and survival were the most negatively affected and abundance was the least negatively affected. Effects on arthropod functional groups were inconsistent. Pollinator condition, reproductive success, and survival were significantly lower in neonicotinoid treatments compared to untreated controls; whereas, neonicotinoid effects on detritivores were not significant. Although magnitude of arthropod response to neonicotinoids varied among performance measures and functional groups, we documented a consistent negative relationship between exposure to neonicotinoid insecticides in published studies and beneficial arthropod performance.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2018

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life‐history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow‐dominated to rain‐dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post‐metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species’ life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog ( Rana cascadae ) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage‐based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed‐specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λ s ) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84–1.13), but predict that λ s will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2021

Life-history theory provides a framework for detecting resource limitation: A test of the Nutritional Buffer Hypothesis

For ungulates and other long-lived species, life-history theory predicts that nutritional reserves are allocated to reproduction in a state-dependent manner because survival is highly conserved. Further, as per capita food abundance and nutritional reserves decline (i.e., density dependence intensifies), reproduction and recruitment become increasingly sensitive to weather. Thus, the degree to which weather influences vital rates should be associated with proximity to nutritional carrying capacity—a notion that we refer to as the Nutritional Buffer Hypothesis. We tested the Nutritional Buffer Hypothesis using six moose ( Alces alces ) populations that varied in calf recruitment (33–69 calves/100 cows). We predicted that populations with high calf recruitment were nutritionally buffered against the effects of unfavorable weather, and thus were below nutritional carrying capacity. We applied a suite of tools to quantify habitat and nutritional condition of each population and found that increased browse condition, forage quality, and body fat were associated with increased pregnancy and calf recruitment, thereby providing multiple lines of evidence that declines in calf recruitment were underpinned by resource limitation. From 2001 to 2015, recruitment was more sensitive to interannual variation in weather (e.g., winter severity, drought) and plant phenology (e.g., duration of spring) for populations with reduced browse condition, forage quality, and body fat, suggesting these populations lacked the nutritional reserves necessary to buffer demographic performance against the effects of unfavorable weather. Further, average within-population calf recruitment was determined by regional climatic variation, suggesting that the pattern of reduced recruitment near the southern range boundary of moose stems from an interaction between climate and resource limitation. When coupled with information on habitat, nutrition, weather, and climate, life-history theory provides a framework to estimate nutritional limitation, proximity to nutritional carrying capacity, and impacts of climate change for ungulates.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Conspecific and congeneric interactions shape increasing rates of breeding dispersal of northern spotted owls

Breeding dispersal, the movement from one breeding territory to another, is rare for philopatric species that evolved within relatively stable environments, such as the old-growth coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest. Although dispersal is not inherently maladaptive, the consequences of increased dispersal on population dynamics in populations whose historical dispersal rates are low could be significant, particularly for a declining species. We examined rates and possible causes of breeding dispersal based on a sample of 4,118 northern spotted owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) monitored in seven study areas over 28 yr, 1990–2017, in Oregon and Washington, USA. Using a multistate mark–resight analysis, we investigated the potential impacts of an emergent congeneric competitor (barred owl Strix varia ) and forest alteration (extrinsic factors), and social and individual conditions (intrinsic factors) on 408 successive and 1,372 nonsuccessive dispersal events between years. The annual probability of breeding dispersal increased for individual owls that had also dispersed in the previous year and decreased for owls on territories with historically high levels of reproduction. Intrinsic factors including pair status, prior reproductive success, and experience at a site, were also associated with breeding dispersal movements. The percent of monitored owls dispersing each year increased from ˜7% early in the study to ˜25% at the end of the study, which coincided with a rapid increase in numbers of invasive and competitively dominant barred owls. We suggest that the results presented here can inform spotted owl conservation efforts as we identify factors contributing to changing rates of demographic parameters including site fidelity and breeding dispersal. Our study further shows that increasing rates of breeding dispersal associated with population declines contribute to population instability and vulnerability of northern spotted owls to extinction, and the prognosis is unlikely to change unless active management interventions are undertaken.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Linking resource selection to population performance spatially to identify species' habitat across broad scales: An example of greater sage-grouse in a distinct population segment

Management decisions often focus on the habitat selection of marked individuals without considering the contribution to demographic performance in selected habitats. Because habitat selection is not always adaptive, understanding the spatial relationship between habitat selection and demographic performance is critical to management decisions. Mapping both habitat selection and demographic performance for species of conservation concern can help guide population-scale conservation efforts. We demonstrate a quantitative approach to differentiate areas supporting selection and survival at large spatial extents. As a case study, we applied this approach to greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator species for sagebrush ecosystems. We evaluated both habitat selection and survival across multiple reproductive life stages (nesting, brood-rearing) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population of sage-grouse on the southwestern edge of the species' range. Our approach allowed us to identify both mismatches between selection and survival and trade-offs between reproductive life stages. These findings suggest resource demands vary across time, with predation risk being a dominant driver of habitat selection during nesting and early brood-rearing periods when chicks are smaller and flightless, whereas access to forage resources becomes more important during late brood rearing when resources become increasingly limited. Moving beyond identifying and managing habitat solely based on species occupancy or use by incorporating demographic measures allows managers to tailor actions to their specific goals; for example, protections of areas that support high selection and high survival and restoration actions focused on increasing survival in areas of high selection and low survival.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2017

Evidence for density dependence in foraging and migratory behavior of a subtropical nearshore seabird

Density-dependent competition for food resources influences both foraging ecology and reproduction in a variety of animals. The relationship between colony size, local prey depletion, and reproductive output in colonial central-place foragers has been extensively studied in seabirds; however, most studies have focused on effects of intraspecific competition during the breeding season, while little is known about whether density-dependent resource depletion influences individual migratory behavior outside the breeding season. Using breeding colony size as a surrogate for intraspecific resource competition, we tested for effects of colony size on breeding home range, nestling health, and migratory patterns of a nearshore colonial seabird, the brown pelican ( Pelecanus occidentalis ), originating from seven breeding colonies of varying sizes in the subtropical northern Gulf of Mexico. We found evidence for density-dependent effects on foraging behavior during the breeding season, as individual foraging areas increased linearly with the number of breeding pairs per colony. Contrary to our predictions, however, nestlings from more numerous colonies with larger foraging ranges did not experience either decreased condition or increased stress. During nonbreeding, individuals from larger colonies were more likely to migrate, and traveled longer distances, than individuals from smaller colonies, indicating that the influence of density-dependent effects on distribution persists into the nonbreeding period. We also found significant effects of individual physical condition, particularly body size, on migratory behavior, which in combination with colony size suggesting that dominant individuals remain closer to breeding sites during winter. We conclude that density-dependent competition may be an important driver of both the extent of foraging ranges and the degree of migration exhibited by brown pelicans. However, the effects of density-dependent competition on breeding success and population regulation remain uncertain in this system.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2021

Risky movements? Natal dispersal does not decrease survival of a large herbivore

Natal dispersal is assumed to be a particularly risky movement behavior as individuals transfer, often long distances, from birth site to site of potential first reproduction. Though, because this behavior persists in populations, it is assumed that dispersal increases the fitness of individuals despite the potential for increased risk of mortality. The extent of dispersal risk, however, has rarely been tested, especially for large mammals. Therefore, we aimed to test the relationship between dispersal and survival for both males and females in a large herbivore. Using a radio-transmittered sample of 398 juvenile male and 276 juvenile female white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) , we compared survival rates of dispersers and non-dispersers. We predicted that dispersing deer would experience greater overall mortality than philopatric deer due to direct transfer-related risks (e.g., vehicular collision), indirect immigration-related mortality attributable to colonization of unfamiliar habitat, and increased over-winter mortality associated with energetic costs of movement and unfamiliarity with recently colonized habitat. For both male and female yearlings, survival rates of dispersers (male = 49.9%, female = 64.0%) did not differ from non-dispersers (male = 51.6%, female = 70.7%). Only two individuals (both female) were killed by vehicular collision during transfer, and over-winter survival patterns were similar between the two groups. Although dispersal movement likely incurs energetic costs on dispersers, these costs do not necessarily translate to decreased survival. In many species, including white-tailed deer, dispersal is likely condition-dependent, such that larger and healthier individuals are more likely to disperse; therefore, costs associated with dispersal are more likely to be borne successfully by those individuals that do disperse. Whether low-risk dispersal of large mammals is the rule or the exception will require additional research. Further, future research is needed to evaluate non-survival fitness-related costs and benefits of dispersal (e.g., increased reproductive opportunities for dispersers).

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2026

Estimation of parental abundance using hierarchical Bayesian modeling with data augmentation

Pedigree-based estimation methods leverage the fact that each offspring in a cohort is genotypically “marked” by its parents and represent a recent and promising toolset for estimating population dynamics. This includes pedigree accumulation estimators that model the “accumulation” of inferred unique parents within a given cohort to estimate parental abundance. Unlike close-kin mark-recapture approaches, which rely on intercohort comparisons, pedigree accumulation modeling can be completed solely using intracohort samples. This is particularly advantageous for semelparous species, where intercohort pairs are impossible and adult life stages can be difficult to sample without affecting their likelihood of successfully reproducing. Previous work has evaluated a range of estimators for such datasets, concluding that the non-parametric Chao estimator provides the most accurate and precise estimates for feasible levels of sampling effort. We used simulated data to evaluate an alternative estimator based on hierarchical modeling and data augmentation in a Bayesian framework. Results indicate that estimates from the hierarchical Bayesian estimator had comparable accuracy and better precision than both the previously tested Chao1 estimator and the improved iChao formulation across a range of sample sizes and sex ratios. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimator was far more robust to simulated errors in pedigree reconstruction, especially the presence of false negatives. Hierarchical Bayesian pedigree accumulation models can also provide additional insight into underlying reproductive ecology through their use of an explicit observation process, allowing for the incorporation or estimation of species- and population-specific reproductive dynamics. More broadly, the parametric nature of these models offers opportunities to efficiently pool information among datasets as well as to propagate uncertainty within more complex models.

Ecology and Evolution↗