Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Natural Resource Modelling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: a case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Development and validation of a spatially-explicit agent-based model for space utilization by African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on determinants of movement

African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are well-studied and inhabit diverse landscapes that are being transformed by both humans and natural forces. Most tools currently in use are limited in their ability to predict how elephants will respond to novel changes in the environment. Individual-, or agent-based modeling (ABM), may extend current methods in addressing and predicting spatial responses to environmental conditions over time. We developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate elephant space use and validated the model with movement data from elephants in Kruger National Park (KNP) and Chobe National Park (CNP). We simulated movement at an hourly scale, as this scale can reflect switches in elephant behavior due to changes in internal states and short-term responses to the local availability and distribution of critical resources, including forage, water, and shade. Known internal drivers of elephant movement, including perceived temperature and the time since an individual last visited a water source, were linked to the external environment through behavior-based movement rules. Simulations were run on model landscapes representing the wet season and the hot, dry season for both parks. The model outputs, including home range size, daily displacement distance, net displacement distance, and maximum distance traveled from a permanent water source, were evaluated through qualitative and quantitative comparisons to actual elephant movement data from both KNP and CNP. The ABM was successful in reproducing the differences in daily displacements between seasons in each park, and in distances traveled from a permanent water source between parks and seasons. Other movement characteristics, including differences in home range sizes and net daily displacements, were partially reproduced. Out of the all the statistical comparisons made between the empirical and simulated movement patterns, the majority were classified as discrepancies of medium or small effect size. We have shown that a resource-driven model with relatively simple decision rules generates trajectories with movement characteristics that are mostly comparable to those calculated from empirical data. Simulating hourly movement (as our model does) may be useful in predicting how finer-scale patterns of space use, such as those created by foraging movements, are influenced by finer spatio-temporal changes in the environment.

Chobe National Park, Kruger National Park↗
USGS1993

U.S. Geological Survey; North Carolina's water resources; a partnership with State, Federal and local agencies

For more than 80 years, the Federal-State Cooperative Program in North Carolina has been an effective partnership that provides timely water information for all levels of government. The cooperative program has raised awareness of State and local water problems and issues and has enhanced transfer and exchange of scientific information. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts statewide water-resources investigations in North Carolina that include hydrologic data collection, applied research studies, and other interpretive studies. These programs are funded through cooperative agreements with the North Carolina Departments of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources; Human Resources; and Transportation, as well as more than a dozen city and county governmental agencies. The USGS also conducts special studies and data-collection programs for Federal agencies, including the Department of Defense, the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that contribute to North Carolina's water information data base. Highlights of selected programs are presented to show the scope of USGS activities in North Carolina and their usefulness in addressing water-resource problems. The reviewed programs include the statewide data-collection program, estuarine studies, the National Water-Quality Assessment program, military installation restoration program, and groundwater flow model-development program in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont provinces.

North Carolina↗
USGS2019

Wild canid distribution and co-existence in a natural–urban matrix of the Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts

Although development and urbanization are typically believed to have negative impacts on carnivoran species, some species can successfully navigate an urban matrix. Sympatric carnivorans compete for limited resources in urban areas, likely with system-specific impacts to their distributions and activity patterns. We used automatically triggered wildlife cameras to assess the local distribution and co-existence of Canis latrans (Coyote) , Vulpes vulpes (Red Fox), and Urocyon cinereoargenteus (Gray Fox) across the Pioneer Valley, MA, in relation to different levels of human development. We placed cameras at 79 locations in forested, altered, and urban land-use areas from September to November 2012 and accumulated 1670 trap nights. We determined site characteristics and detection rates for 12 other wildlife species for each camera location to develop a generalized linear model for the local distribution of each focal canid species across the study area. We also compared diel activity patterns among Coyotes, Red Foxes, and Gray Foxes, and calculated coefficients of overlap between each pair. The local distribution of Coyotes was positively associated with the detection rates of their prey and not associated with detection rates of sympatric carnivoran species. Red Foxes and Gray Foxes had negative relationships with the detection rate of Coyotes, and none of the 3 canid species showed a positive correlation with increased levels of urbanization. There was a high degree of temporal overlap in diel activity patterns and limited spatial overlap of our focal species, which suggests that any competition avoidance across our study area occurred at the spatial level. Coyotes fill the role of top predator in the Pioneer Valley, and likely have a negative impact on the local distributions of smaller canids, while their own local distributions seem to be driven by prey availability.

Massachesetts↗
USGS2018

Identifying cost-effective invasive species control to enhance endangered species populations in the Grand Canyon, USA

Recovering endangered species populations when confronted with the threat of invasive species is an ongoing natural resource management challenge. While eradication of the invasive species is often the optimal economic solution, it may not be a feasible nor desirable management action in other cases. For example, when invasive species are desired in one area, but disperse into areas managed for endangered species, managers may be interested in persistent, but cost-effective means of managing dispersers rather than eradicating the source. In the Colorado River, a nonnative rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) sport fishery is desired within Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, however, dispersal downriver into the Grand Canyon National Park is not desired as rainbow trout negatively affect endangered humpback chub ( Gila cypha ). Here, we developed a bioeconomic model incorporating population abundance goals and cost-effectiveness analyses to approximate the optimal control strategies for invasive rainbow trout conditional on achieving endangered humpback chub adult population abundance goals. Model results indicated that the most cost-effective approach to achieve target adult humpback chub abundance was a high level of rainbow trout control over moderately high rainbow trout population abundance. Adult humpback chub abundance goals were achieved at relatively low rainbow trout abundance and control measures were not cost-effective at relatively high rainbow trout abundance. Our model considered population level dynamics, species interaction and economic costs in a multi-objective decision framework to provide a preferred solution to long-run management of invasive and native species.

Grand Canyon↗
USGS2013

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2020

Geomagnetism Program research plan, 2020–2024

The Geomagnetism Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors geomagnetic field variation through operation of a network of observatories across the United States and its territories, and it pursues scientific research needed to estimate and assess geomagnetic and geoelectric hazards. Over the next five years (2020–2024 inclusive) and in support of national and agency priorities, Geomagnetism Program research scientists plan to pursue an integrated set of research projects broadly encompassing empirical estimation and mapping of geomagnetic disturbance, modeling of solid-Earth conductivity structure and surface impedance, and mapping of magnetic-storm-induced geoelectric fields. Analyses are empirically based, relying on measured time series as well as statistical and numerical modeling of geomagnetic-monitoring data from ground-based observatories and surface-impedance tensors acquired during magnetotelluric surveys. The plan describes augmentation and development of the Geomagnetism Program's existing research portfolio, assuming present funding levels and staffing numbers. Because the projects are interdependent, they cannot be straightforwardly prioritized. They will all be pursued as resources and time permit; additional funding and staffing would enable the projects to be broadened and more rapidly completed. Where appropriate and subject to budgetary constraints and staffing numbers, research on specific projects might be accelerated or even judiciously expanded—some opportunities for expansion are discussed in this plan. Results will provide realistic illumination of the nature of the ground-level expression of space-weather disturbance, a subject of particular importance for projects focused on evaluating the vulnerability of electric-power-grid systems. This plan does not cover Geomagnetism Program operations, which are primarily concerned with the operation of magnetic observatories and, now, magnetotelluric surveys, although the context of such observatories and surveys is discussed. The research element of the program provides guidance for the expansion of program operations and research projects. In addition to the research projects summarized here, program scientists continue to provide leadership to the national and international geomagnetic, magnetotelluric, and space-weather communities.

Circular↗
USGS2020

Forage and habitat for pollinators in the northern Great Plains—Implications for U.S. Department of Agriculture conservation programs

Managed and wild pollinators are critical components of agricultural and natural systems. Despite the well-known value of insect pollinators to U.S. agriculture, Apis mellifera (Linnaeus, 1758; honey bees) and wild bees currently face numerous stressors that have resulted in declining health. These declines have engendered support for pollinator conservation efforts across all levels of government, private businesses, and nongovernmental organizations. In 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Geological Survey initiated an interagency agreement to evaluate honey bee forage across multiple States in the northern Great Plains and upper Midwest. The long-term goal of this study was to provide an empirical evaluation of floral resources used by honey bees, and the relative contribution of multiple land covers and USDA conservation programs to bee health and productivity. Our multi-State analysis of land-use change from 2006 to 2016 revealed loss of grassland and increases in corn and soybean area in North and South Dakota, representing a significant loss of bee-friendly land covers in areas that support the highest density of summer bee yards in the entire United States. Our landscape models demonstrate the importance of the Conservation Reserve Program in providing safe locations for beekeepers to keep honey bees during the summer and highlights how land use in the northern Great Plains has a lasting effect on the health of honey bee colonies during almond pollination the subsequent spring. Our multiseason, multi-State genetic analysis of honey bee-collected pollen revealed Melilotus spp., Asteraceae, Trifolium spp., Fabaceae, Sonchus arvensis , Symphyotrichum cordifolium , and Solidago spp. were the top taxa detected; Melilotus spp. represented 42 percent of all detected taxa. Symphyotrichum cordifolium , Solidago spp., and Grindelia spp. were the top native forbs detected in honey bee-collected pollen. We also conducted plant and bee surveys on private lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program and Environmental Quality Incentives Program. In general, we found significant variability in floral resources and pollinator utilization across USDA programs and practices. On average, greater than 75 percent of honey bee flower observations on private lands enrolled in a USDA conservation program were on non-native forbs, whereas 33 percent of wild bee flower observations were on non-native forbs. Melilotus officinalis and Medicago sativa were the most visited by honey bees, wherease Medicago sativa and Helianthus maximiliani were the most visited by wild bees. Our analysis of nectar dearth periods in June and September for honey bees revealed that although Melilotus officinalis and Medicago sativa were highly visited, less common native forb species such as Ratibida columnifera , Agastache foeniculum , and Gaillardia aristata were preferred species. However, these preferred species were relatively rare on the landscape and are, therefore, unlikely to make up a sizable part of the honey bee diet. In addition to our empirical results, we also showcase how the U.S. Geological Survey Pollinator Library, a decision-support tool for natural resource managers, can be used to design cost-effective seeding mixes for pollinators. Collectively, the results of this research will assist USDA with maximizing the ecological impact and cost-effectiveness of their conservation programs on pollinators in the northern Great Plains.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2011

Surface-water nutrient conditions and sources in the United States Pacific Northwest

The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface-water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water-quality planning efforts.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS1995

Potential hazards from flood in part of the Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins, Pinnacles National Monument, California

Areas of Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins in Pinnacles National Monument, California, are subject to frontal storms that can cause major flooding from November to April in areas designated for public use. To enhance visitor safety and to protect cultural and natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service studied flood-hazard potentials within the boundaries of the Pinnacles National Monument. This study area extends from about a quarter of a mile north of Chalone Creek Campground to the mouth of Bear Valley and from the east monument entrance to Chalone Creek. Historical data of precipitation and floodflow within the monument area are sparse to nonexistent, therefore, U.S. Soil Conservation Service unit-hydrograph procedures were used to determine the magnitude of a 100-year flood. Because of a lack of specific storm-rainfall data, a simulated storm was applied to the basins using a digital-computer model developed by the Soil Conservation Service. A graphical relation was used to define the regionally based maximum flood for Chalone Creek and Bear Valley. Water-surface elevations and inundation areas were determined using a conventional step-backwater program. Flood-zone boundaries were derived from the computed water-surface elevations. The 100-year flood plain for both streams would be inundated at all points by the regional maximum flood. Most of the buildings and proposed building sites in the monument area are above the elevation of the 100-year flood, except the proposed building sites near the horse corral and the east monument entrance. The 100-year flood may cause reverse flow through a 12-inch culvert embedded in the embankment of Old Pinnacles Campground Road in the center of Chalone Creek Campground. The likelihood of this occurring is dependant upon the amount of aggradation that occurs upstream; therefore, the campground area also is considered to be within the 100-year flood zone.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow in the Lucerne Valley groundwater basin, California

The Lucerne Valley is in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert and is about 75 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. The Lucerne Valley groundwater basin encompasses about 230 square miles and is separated from the Upper Mojave Valley groundwater basin by splays of the Helendale Fault. Since its settlement, groundwater has been the primary source of water for agricultural, industrial, municipal, and domestic uses. Groundwater withdrawal from pumping has exceeded the amount of water recharged to the basin, causing groundwater declines of more than 100 feet between 1917 and 2016 in the center of the basin. The continued withdrawal has resulted in an increase in pumping costs, reduced well efficiency, and land subsidence near Lucerne Lake. Although the volume of pumping has declined in recent years, there is concern that new agricultural growth and limits on imported water will continue to strain the sustainability of the groundwater system. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into a cooperative agreement with the Mojave Water Agency to develop a better understanding of the Lucerne Valley hydrogeologic system and provide tools to help evaluate and manage the effects of future development in the Lucerne Valley. The objectives of this study were to (1) improve the understanding of the aquifer system, (2) improve the understanding of subsidence in the basin, and (3) incorporate the understanding into a groundwater-flow model that can be used to help manage the groundwater resources in the Lucerne Valley. The model developed for this study covers the period of 1942–2016 and can help evaluate various proposed water-management scenarios during different climatic and hydrologic conditions. The aquifer system consists of a shallow aquifer, a confining unit, and middle and lower aquifers. These layered water-bearing units were identified based on geologic units of the mostly unconsolidated sediments and hydrologic properties. These alluvial deposits consist of clay, silt, sand, and gravel; some places also contain clay and silty clay lacustrine deposits. Several faults act, at least in part, as barriers to groundwater flow on the eastern, southern, and western edges of the basin. Present-day natural recharge is primarily from the infiltration of runoff from the San Bernardino Mountains to the south; however, stable and radioactive isotopes show that groundwater from the middle of the Lucerne Valley was older than about 10,000 years and probably was recharged as infiltration from streams draining the mountains in the Mojave Desert to the north, which probably does not occur under present-day climatic conditions. The annual average natural recharge for 1942–2016, estimated by a Basin Characterization Model, was about 635 acre-feet per year; the average amount of treated wastewater effluent transferred to the Lucerne Valley for artificial recharge annually ranged from about 1,500 to 4,000 acre-feet per year during 1980–2016. Pumpage estimates for 1942–2016 ranged from about 3,000 acre-feet in 1942 to about 18,300 acre-feet in 1984. The total cumulative amount of groundwater removed from the basin by pumping between 1942 and 2016 was estimated to be about 700,000 acre-feet, which was about 10 times greater than the cumulative amount of recharge to the entire Lucerne Valley groundwater basin. Before groundwater development, the direction of groundwater flow was from the southern part of the basin northward to discharge areas near Lucerne Lake, where it discharged through springs along the Helendale Fault and by evapotranspiration. Since the early 1900s, groundwater-level declines have mostly eliminated the areas where natural discharge occurred and exceeded 100 feet in the middle of the basin between the early 1950s and mid-1990s, and as much as 25 feet near the margins from about the mid-1950s to 2000s. A decrease in the rate of pumping after the mid-1990s lessened the hydraulic stress on the middle and lower aquifers and enabled hydraulic heads in the middle of the basin to recover slightly as groundwater near the margins of the basin moved toward the pumping depression. Although trends in groundwater levels in the center of the basin have reversed since the mid-1990s, levels at the basin margins continue to decline as the movement of groundwater from the margins fills the pumping depression and gradually flattens the groundwater table throughout the basin. The long-term extraction of groundwater and associated dewatering of the fine-grained sediments present within the aquifer system has resulted in aquifer compaction and consequently land subsidence, primarily near Lucerne Lake. Analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar data shows that almost 11 inches of land subsidence has occurred south of Lucerne Lake between April 1992 and November 2009; less subsidence occurred elsewhere in the basin during this period. This differential land subsidence has caused fissures and cracks in the ground surface, which have buckled the pavement and undercut roads in several locations. The Lucerne Valley Hydrologic Model was developed using the finite-difference groundwater modeling software One Water Hydrologic Model to represent the hydrologic conditions and stresses during 1942–2016. The model has a uniform grid of approximately 92 acres per cell (2,000 feet by 2,000 feet) and has four layers representing the water-bearing units. The results from the calibrated model simulations indicated that groundwater pumpage exceeded recharge, resulting in an estimated net cumulative depletion of groundwater storage (discharge minus recharge) of about 465,000 acre-feet from 1942 to 2016. The model simulated as much as 7.5 feet (90 inches; 2,286 millimeters) of aquifer compaction, which indicates the extensive fine-grained deposits and measured subsidence near Lucerne Lake.

California↗
USGS1999

Regional water-level changes for the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer in Iowa, 1975 to 1997

The Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer is one of the principal sources of ground water for industry and municipalities in Iowa. The 1998 Iowa Administrative Code Chapter 52.4(3) states that water levels in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer are not to decline more than 200 feet from the 1977 baseline. The potentiometric-surface map of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer, known locally as the Jordan aquifer, prepared by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources-Geological Survey Bureau and the U.S. Geological Survey in 1978 using water levels measured during the 1975 water year is considered the 1977 baseline. For this study, water levels measured during the 1997 water year were used to construct a potentiometric-surface map that was compared to the 1977 baseline to describe water-level changes. Since 1975, water levels have declined in two areas of central and eastern Iowa. The maximum measured water-level decline is 133 feet in Johnson County in eastern Iowa. The estimated maximum rate of decline is 6 feet per year in Johnson County. Results from a two-layer, ground-water flow model of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1990 were compared to selected measured 1997 water levels. The difference between the simulated water levels and the 1997 maximum measured water levels ranges from 0 to about 150 feet, but most differences are less than 25 feet. The comparison indicates that the model may help estimate future water levels in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer as an aid in managing the resource.

Iowa↗
USGS2022

Integration of vegetation classification with land cover mapping: Lessons from regional mapping efforts in the Americas

Aims : Natural resource management and biodiversity conservation rely on inventories of vegetation that span multiple management or political jurisdictions. However, while remote sensing data and analytical tools have enabled production of maps at increasing spatial resolution and reliability, there are limited examples where national or continental-scaled maps are produced to represent vegetation at high thematic detail. We illustrate two examples that have bridged the gap between traditional land cover mapping and modern vegetation classification. Study area : Our two case studies include national ( USA ) and continental (North and South America) vegetation and land cover mapping. These studies span conditions from subpolar to tropical latitudes of the Americas. Methods : Both case studies used a supervised modeling approach with the International Vegetation Classification ( IVC ) to produce maps that provide for greater thematic detail. Georeferenced locations for these vegetation types are used by machine learning algorithms to train a predictive model and generate a distribution map. Results : The USA LANDFIRE (Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project) case study illustrates how a history of vegetation-based classification and availability of key inputs can come together to generate standard map products covering more than 9.8 million km 2 that are unsurpassed anywhere in the world in terms of spatial and thematic resolution. That being said, it also remains clear that mapping at the thematic resolution of the IVC Group and finer resolution require very large and spatially balanced inputs of georeferenced samples. Even with extensive prior data collection efforts, these remain a key limitation. The NatureServe effort for the Americas - encompassing 22% of the global land surface - demonstrates methods and outputs suitable for worldwide application at continental scales. Conclusions : Continued collection of input data used in the case studies could enable mapping at these spatial and thematic resolutions around the globe.

Vegetation Classification and Survey↗
USGS2019

Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with managers of the North Carolina Coastal Refuges Complex, Cape Romain NWR, South Carolina, and other local interested partners to assist with their long-term planning under uncertain conditions regarding sea-level rise and other global change processes. Researchers are using a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, including formal decision science for systematically analyzing management alternatives and scenario planning methods for engaging with stakeholders to explore possible futures. These approaches are aimed at helping NWR staff develop management objectives, identify and weigh potential management actions for adaptation, and generate decision-support tools and models. Outcomes and products from these efforts will aid managers as they plan for and adapt to the complex challenges facing the NWR system as changing climate and other conditions make their work increasingly more difficult.

Final Project Memorandum↗
USGS2012

Power analysis and trend detection for water quality monitoring data. An application for the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network

An important consideration for long term monitoring programs is determining the required sampling effort to detect trends in specific ecological indicators of interest. To enhance the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network’s water resources protocol(s) (O’Ney 2006 and O’Ney et al. 2009 [under review]), we developed a set of tools to: (1) determine the statistical power for detecting trends of varying magnitude in a specified water quality parameter over different lengths of sampling (years) and different within-year collection frequencies (monthly or seasonal sampling) at particular locations using historical data, and (2) perform periodic trend analyses for water quality parameters while addressing seasonality and flow weighting. A power analysis for trend detection is a statistical procedure used to estimate the probability of rejecting the hypothesis of no trend when in fact there is a trend, within a specific modeling framework. In this report, we base our power estimates on using the seasonal Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 2002) for detecting trend in water quality parameters measured at fixed locations over multiple years. We also present procedures (R-scripts) for conducting a periodic trend analysis using the seasonal Kendall test with and without flow adjustment. This report provides the R-scripts developed for power and trend analysis, tutorials, and the associated tables and graphs. The purpose of this report is to provide practical information for monitoring network staff on how to use these statistical tools for water quality monitoring data sets.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2025

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long-term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist-accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density-impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub-optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non-stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade-offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2001

Flow and habitat effects on juvenile fish abundance in natural and altered flow regimes

Conserving biological resources native to large river systems increasingly depends on how flow-regulated segments of these rivers are managed. Improving management will require a better understanding of linkages between river biota and temporal variability of flow and instream habitat. However, few studies have quantified responses of native fish populations to multiyear (>2 yr) patterns of hydrologic or habitat variability in flow-regulated systems. To provide these data, we quantified young-of-year (YOY) fish abundance during four years in relation to hydrologic and habitat variability in two segments of the Tallapoosa River in the southeastern United States. One segment had an unregulated flow regime, whereas the other was flow-regulated by a peak-load generating hydropower dam. We sampled fishes annually and explored how continuously recorded flow data and physical habitat simulation models (PHABSIM) for spring (April-June) and summer (July-August) preceding each sample explained fish abundances. Patterns of YOY abundance in relation to habitat availability (median area) and habitat persistence (longest period with habitat area continuously above the long-term median area) differed between unregulated and flow-regulated sites. At the unregulated site, YOY abundances were most frequently correlated with availability of shallow-slow habitat in summer (10 species) and persistence of shallow-slow and shallow-fast habitat in spring (nine species). Additionally, abundances were negatively correlated with 1-h maximum flow in summer (five species). At the flow-regulated site, YOY abundances were more frequently correlated with persistence of shallow-water habitats (four species in spring; six species in summer) than with habitat availability or magnitude of flow extremes. The associations of YOY with habitat persistence at the flow-regulated site corresponded to the effects of flow regulation on habitat patterns. Flow regulation reduced median flows during spring and summer, which resulted in median availability of shallow-water habitats comparable to the unregulated site. However, habitat persistence was severely reduced by flow fluctuations resulting from pulsed water releases for peak-load power generation. Habitat persistence, comparable to levels in the unregulated site, only occurred during summer when low rainfall or other factors occasionally curtailed power generation. As a consequence, summer-spawning species numerically dominated the fish assemblage at the flow-regulated site; five of six spring-spawning species occurring at both study sites were significantly less abundant at the flow-regulated site. Persistence of native fishes in flow-regulated systems depends, in part, on the seasonal occurrence of stable habitat conditions that facilitate reproduction and YOY survival.

Alabama, Georgia↗
USGS2020

Feeding ecology of age-0 gar at Lake Texoma inferred from analysis of stable isotopes

Conservation and restoration of gar (Lepisosteidae) populations in North America are increasingly of interest to fisheries managers. Alligator Gar Atractosteus spatula are being stocked as age-0 fish in efforts to re-establish extirpated populations. However, gars are known to be highly cannibalistic in hatcheries, suggesting that age-0 Alligator Gar introduced into natural habitats may face predation pressures from other gar species, limiting the likelihood of released fish recruiting to the population. Furthermore, introduced age-0 gar may not have the proper prey resources for rapid growth that would facilitate recruitment to adulthood. Texoma Reservoir, located on the Oklahoma–Texas border, hosts four native gar species, including the Alligator Gar, whose population is supported by supplemental stocking of age-0 fingerlings. We investigated feeding by age-0 gar to obtain a baseline level of trophic ecology for this group of fishes, including the potential for poststocking cannibalism. Food webs were reconstructed via analysis of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotopes using Bayesian mixing model approaches. Isotopic values for age-0 fish of all four gar species were similar. Invertebrates represented a large fraction of the diet for all gars, followed by Common Carp Cyprinus carpio and Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella . Competitive interactions among Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus , White Bass Morone chrysops , White Crappie Pomoxis annularis , and young gar may occur for invertebrates, shads Dorosoma spp., and Western Mosquitofish Gambusia affinis but are likely short-lived due to the rapid growth of age-0 gar after their transition to piscivory. Trophic position of age-0 Alligator Gar, Longnose Gar Lepisosteus osseus , and Spotted Gar Lepisosteus oculatus was positively related to TL, but this relationship was not observed for Shortnose Gar Lepisosteus platostomus . In Texoma Reservoir, the four native gar species, including stocked Alligator Gar, appear to have adequate food resources for recruitment, with little indication of within-family or interspecific predation. This suggests that stocked Alligator Gar quickly acclimated to their new environment.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗