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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

USGS2006

The future of imaging spectroscopy - Prospective technologies and applications

Spectroscopy has existed for more than three centuries now. Nonetheless, significant scientific advances have been achieved. We discuss the history of spectroscopy in relation to emerging technologies and applications. Advanced focal plane arrays, optical design, and intelligent on-board logic are prime prospective technologies. Scalable approaches in pre-processing of imaging spectrometer data will receive additional focus. Finally, we focus on new applications monitoring transitional ecological zones, where human impact and disturbance have highest impact as well as in monitoring changes in our natural resources and environment We conclude that imaging spectroscopy enables mapping of biophysical and biochemical variables of the Earth's surface and atmospheric composition with unprecedented accuracy.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2004

The Pre-Messinian Total Petroleum System of the Provence Basin, Western Mediterranean Sea

The Provence Basin is in that portion of the western Mediterranean Sea that is deeper than 2 kilometers. The basin lies essentially beyond the outer continental shelf, between the countries of France, Italy, and Algeria, the Balearic Islands, and the islands of Sardinia and Corsica. It encompasses nearly 300,000 square kilometers and includes the Rhone River submarine fan on the continental slope of southern France. It is province 4068 in the World Energy study. A single, hypothetical, total petroleum system (TPS), the Pre-Messinian TPS (406801), was described for the Provence Basin. The designation hypothetical is used because there is no hydrocarbon production from the basin. The Provence Basin is a deep-water Tertiary rift basin in which the geothermal gradients vary regionally. The Red Sea Basin shares a similar geologic and thermal history with the rifted western Mediterranean Sea and was used as an analog to better understand the genesis of the Provence Basin and as a guide to estimating possible undiscovered amounts of hydrocarbons. For this assessment the basin was given a potential, at the mean, for undiscovered resources of 51 trillion cubic feet (1.4 trillion cubic meters) gas, 0.42 billion barrels oil, and 2.23 million barrels natural gas liquids.

Bulletin↗

USGS2020

Seafloor change around the Mississippi barrier islands, 1920 to 2016—The influence of storm effects on inlet and island morphodynamics

The Mississippi Barrier Islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico experienced high rates of spatial change over recorded history. Wave-induced sediment transport induced island migration, landward retreat, and inlet evolution. These processes can be measured using repeat bathymetric surveys to analyze elevation change over time. This study analyzes digital elevation models created from three time periods where bathymetric data have been collected: the 1920s, 2009, and 2016. The models are compared to assess volumetric change between surveys and characterize morphologic responses to natural and human-influenced processes. Although all the islands within the study area experienced a loss of area over the period of study, the nearshore and tidal inlets experience both accretion and erosion that vary spatially and temporally. Major morphologic changes include westward island migration, expanding ebb-tidal deltas, and changes in inlet dimensions. This study is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the National Park Service to establish baseline physical and pre-restoration morphologic conditions preceding a major restoration of the islands as part of the Mississippi Coastal Improvement Project.

Mississippi barrier islands↗

USGS1995

Geochemistry of sediments from coastal marshes of Louisiana

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change and Climate History Program we have been studying the biogeochemistry of coastal marshes in Terrebonne Basin, Louisiana. Louisiana has about 40 percent of the coastal wetlands in the conterminous U.S. and it is losing wetlands at one of the highest rates in the U.S. with the conversion of about 65 km2/yr of marsh to open water (Britsch and Dunbar, 1993). The losses have been attributed to human and natural causes including saltwater intrusion through man-made canals, reduced sediment input, and regional subsidence. The net effect of these influences is to change the salinity of interior marshes in a fashion similar to a eustatic sea level rise. We are studying the cycling of carbon, sulfur, and other elements in sediments, waters, and marsh macrophytes in fresh, intermediate/brackish, and saltwater marshes in order to better understand how sea level rise, one aspect of global change, will influence and in turn be influenced by cycling of these elements. By characterizing the critical biogeochemical processes and the recent past environments in these rapidly changing marshes, we can improve predictions of future changes and interpretations of the historic geologic record in similar environments. In this report we describe our coastal marsh study sites in Louisiana, the types of samples collected, the collection methods, the chemical analysis methods, and selected chemical analysis results. Also included are summaries of the project quality control results. The raw chemical analysis results are provided in this report without interpretation. Interpretations will be provided in subsequent reports.

Louisiana↗

USGS1993

Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O . virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

Acta Theriologica↗

USGS2025

Near-surface geophysics: Environmental applications

The field of geophysics encompasses a broad and diverse compilation of methodologies that employs principles of physics to characterize properties of earth materials within the subsurface. While geophysical methods have a long history in resource exploration and studies of Earth’s interior, the subdiscipline of “near-surface geophysics” has evolved in recent decades for examination of the shallow, near-surface environment for a range of purposes ranging from archaeological or forensic investigations to assessment of geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and geochemical properties and processes. “Environmental geophysics” are near-surface geophysical studies and methods that focus on understanding natural systems (e.g., watershed hydrology, groundwater–surface water connections, biophysical processes) as well as research pertaining to anthropogenic impacts and land management, (e.g., contamination and remediation, saltwater intrusion, agricultural practices). This field can be further subdivided into subdisciplines focused on specific topics and applications, such as water resources and hydrology (hydrogeophysics) or biologic and microbial processes (biogeophysics). Studies in environmental geophysics span a range of scales, from pore-scale laboratory tests to watershed-scale or regional field experiments. Methods vary by the nature of physics employed, the specific measurement acquired, and how that data is ultimately processed and analyzed to produce interpretable results. There exists further diversity in the acquisition logistics, geometry, and timing of data collection. Geophysical data can be collected in boreholes (one-dimensional, 1-D, vertical profiles), along survey lines (two-dimensional, 2-D, cross-sections), or in dense sensor arrays or gridded profiles (three-dimensional, 3-D, models). Regarding the temporal aspect, studies can conduct one-time geophysical surveys to obtain detailed imaging of subsurface structure or use timelapse and continuous monitoring to investigate variations in subsurface properties over time. The cumulation of all possible permutations of these factors (method, acquisition geometry, survey design, and target application) results in an immense diversity among environmental geophysical studies. Nevertheless, this field remains unified in the pursuit of understanding natural and human-impacted near-surface environments through geophysical investigations. Here we highlight some key references within environmental geophysics. Resources on geophysical theory, acquisition logistics, processing and inversion workflows, and example case studies are categorized into the most common geophysical classes within Geophysical Methods. Lastly, example references for the dominant types of applications in environmental geophysical studies are catalogued in Environmental Applications.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Pockmarks in Passamaquoddy Bay, New Brunswick, Canada

Pockmarks are seafloor depressions associated with fluid escape ( Judd & Hovland 2007 ). They proliferate in the muddy seafloors of coastal Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, where they are associated with shallow natural gas likely of biogenic origin ( Ussler et al. 2003 ; Rogers et al. 2006 ; Wildish et al. 2008 ). In North America, shallow-water pockmark fields are not reported south of Long Island Sound, despite the abundance of gassy, muddy estuaries. The absence of pockmarks south of the limit of North American glaciation suggests that local and regional heterogeneities, possibly related to glacial or sea-level history or bedrock geology, influence pockmark field distribution. In shallow-water embayments, such as Passamaquoddy Bay, New Brunswick, pockmarks can be large (>200 m diameter) and number in the thousands.

New Brunswick↗

USGS2010

The U.S.Geological Survey Energy Resources Program

Energy resources are an essential component of modern society. Adequate, reliable, and affordable energy supplies obtained using environmentally sustainable practices underpin economic prosperity, environmental quality and human health, and political stability. National and global demands for all forms of energy are forecast to increase significantly over the next several decades. Throughout its history, our Nation has faced important, often controversial, decisions regarding the competing uses of public lands, the supply of energy to sustain development and enable growth, and environmental stewardship. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Energy Resources Program (ERP) provides information to address these challenges by supporting scientific investigations of energy resources, such as research on the geology, geochemistry, and geophysics of oil, gas, coal, heavy oil and natural bitumen, oil shale, uranium, and geothermal resources, emerging resources such as gas hydrates, and research on the effects associated with energy resource occurrence, production, and (or) utilization. The results from these investigations provide impartial, robust scientific information about energy resources and support the U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI's) mission of protecting and responsibly managing the Nation's natural resources. Primary consumers of ERP information and products include the DOI land- and resource-management Bureaus; other Federal, State, and local agencies; the U.S. Congress and the Administration; nongovernmental organizations; the energy industry; academia; international organizations; and the general public.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2013

Vegetation inventory, mapping, and classification report, Fort Bowie National Historic Site

A vegetation mapping and characterization effort was conducted at Fort Bowie National Historic Site in 2008-10 by the Sonoran Desert Network office in collaboration with researchers from the Office of Arid lands studies, Remote Sensing Center at the University of Arizona. This vegetation mapping effort was completed under the National Park Service Vegetation Inventory program which aims to complete baseline mapping inventories at over 270 national park units. The vegetation map data was collected to provide park managers with a digital map product that met national standards of spatial and thematic accuracy, while also placing the vegetation into a regional and even national context. Work comprised of three major field phases 1) concurrent field-based classification data collection and mapping (map unit delineation), 2) development of vegetation community types at the National Vegetation Classification alliance or association level and 3) map accuracy assessment. Phase 1 was completed in late 2008 and early 2009. Community type descriptions were drafted to meet the then-current hierarchy (version 1) of the National Vegetation Classification System (NVCS) and these were applied to each of the mapped areas. This classification was developed from both plot level data and censused polygon data (map units) as this project was conducted as a concurrent mapping and classification effort. The third stage of accuracy assessment completed in the fall of 2010 consisted of a complete census of each map unit and was conducted almost entirely by park staff. Following accuracy assessment the map was amended where needed and final products were developed including this report, a digital map and full vegetation descriptions. Fort Bowie National Historic Site covers only 1000 acres yet has a relatively complex landscape, topography and geology. A total of 16 distinct communities were described and mapped at Fort Bowie NHS. These ranged from lush riparian woodlands lining the ephemeral washes dominated by Ash (Fraxinus), Walnut (Juglans) and Hackberry (Celtis) to drier upland sites typical of desert scrub and semi-desert grassland communities. These shrublands boast a diverse mixture of shrubs, succulents and perennial grasses. In many places the vegetation could be seen to echo the history of the fort site, with management of shrub encroachment apparent in the grasslands and the paucity of trees evidence of historic cutting for timber and fire wood. Seven of the 16 vegetation types were ‘accepted’ types within the NVC while the others have been described here as specific to FOBO and have proposed status within the NVC. The map was designed to facilitate ecologically-based natural resources management and research. The map is in digital format within a geodatabase structure that allows for complex relationships to be established between spatial and tabular data, and makes accessing the product easy and seamless. The GIS format allows user flexibility and will also enable updates to be made as new information becomes available (such as revised NVC codes or vegetation type names) or in the event of major disturbance events that could impact the vegetation.

Arizona↗

USGS1998

The nature and timing of tectonism in the western facies terrane of Nevada and California; an outline of evidence and interpretations derived from geologic maps of key areas

Along the outer miogeocline of Nevada and Southern California, lower Paleozoic siliceous sediments and basalt flows, the western facies terrane emerged in Late Devonian time and were deeply eroded; but structural evidence that this event, the Antler Orogeny, involved intense folding and thrust faulting is notably scarce. Almost all the intense folding and thrust faulting of Proterozoic to Permian strata dates from the Jurassic to Eocene interval. If this tectonic history is valid, then the genesis of the Antler Orogeny is reduced to a question of vertical tectonics. Pre-Jurassic contraction involving subduction and collision with island arcs is not indicated or required, but the ultimate origin of Paleozoic tectonism remains unclear.

Professional Paper↗

USGS1985

Crystalline gold in soil and the problem of supergene nugget formation: Freezing and exclusion as genetic mechanisms

Many of the world's richest gold placer deposits now occur in cold regions despite differences in their climatic history. It therefore seems possible that there may be some fundamental connection between freezing climates and the local chemical behavior of gold in the weathering cycle. This hypothesis, along with the problematical occurrence of gold as euhedral crystals in arctic gravel and soil placers, has led me to review low temperature phenomena that may bear on the geochemistry of gold. Several effects which may influence the weathering of natural gold-bearing rocks, the chemical complexation of gold, and its subsequent mobility and deposition appear to be strongly connected with freeze action. The exclusion of dissolved solutes, solute gases, and particles from ice, subjects rock and soil minerals to increased corrosion from thin, unfrozen, adsorbed water films which remain at particle surfaces throughout the freezing of rocks and soils. The preferential exclusion of cations (over anions) from growing ice crystals creates charge separations and measurable current flow across waterice phase boundaries in freezing soil — a phenomenon which leads to troublesome seasonal electrolytic corrosion of pipelines buried in soil; this phenomenon may also favor the dissolution of normally insoluble metals such as gold during geologic time periods. The ice-induced accumulation of clays, organic acids, bacteria, and other organic matter at mineral surfaces may also speed chemical attack by providing a nearby sink of alternate cation-binding sites and hence rapid removal of liberated cations from solution. The latter mechanism may be operative in both the dissolution and redeposition of gold. These physical, chemical, and electrical effects are favorable to the dissolution of rocks (in addition to frost shattering) and to the dissolution, mobilization, and redeposition of gold and other noble metals and must therefore contribute significantly to the behavior of gold at low temperatures. The occurrence of large numbers of gold placer deposits in northern Canada, Alaska, and Siberia may thus be due in part to the low temperatures common to these regions.

Precambrian Research↗

USGS2018

A spatially discrete, integral projection model and its application to invasive carp

Natural resource managers and ecologists often desire an understanding of spatial dynamics such as migration, dispersion, and meta-population dynamics. Network-node models can capture these salient features. Additionally, the state-variable used with many species may be appropriately modeled as a continuous variable (e.g., length) and management activities sometimes can only target individuals of certain sizes. Integral projection models (IPMs) can capture this life history characteristic and allow for the examination of size-specific management. We combined an IPM with a network-node model to capture both of these salient features. We then demonstrated how this model could be used to understand and manage populations of invasive species focusing on grass carp as an example. Grass carp disrupt ecosystems outside of their native range and have spread around much of the world, including North America. The impacts of grass carp include adversely changing aquatic plant communities, which in turn affect a wide range of endpoints ranging from water quality to waterfowl recruitment. We specifically examined two theoretical systems using parameters from the literature. First, we modeled a lake with two tributaries and examined how modified sterile males could be used as a control tool. We found that modified sterile males may be a feasible control tool to limit population growth. Second, we modeled a series of river pools and examined how harvest and deterrents could be used to decrease the risk of expanding grass carp's range within a river system. Within this system, we also compared the impacts of size specific harvest and uniform harvest across all sizes. We found that targeting the largest, spawning populations may be more important than targeting the populations close to the invasion front for reducing the risk of spreading grass carp. We also demonstrate that size of harvested fish was important for controlling populations.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2020

The historical context of contemporary climatic adaptation: A case study in the climatically dynamic and environmentally complex southwestern United States

The process of adaptation can be highly dependent upon historical and contemporary factors, especially in environmentally and topographically complex regions affected by Pleistocene glaciations. Here, we investigate Hilaria jamesii (Poaceae), a dryland C 4 graminoid, to test how patterns of adaptive genetic variation are linked to its glacial and post‐glacial history. We show that the species persisted in a single, southern refugium during the last glacial period and subsequently migrated throughout its current distribution concurrent with post‐glacial warming. The species’ putative adaptive genetic variation correlates with climatic gradients (e.g. monsoon precipitation and mean diurnal temperature range) that covary with the species’ probable route of demographic expansion. The short timescale and multiple climatic dimensions of adaptation imply that natural selection acted primarily upon standing genetic variation. These findings suggest that restoration and conservation practices should prioritize the maintenance of standing genetic variation to ensure that species have the capacity to respond to future environmental changes.

Arizona, California Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, ↗

USGS2004

Testing life history predictions in a long-lived seabird: A population matrix approach with improved parameter estimation

Life history theory and associated empirical generalizations predict that population growth rate (λ) in long-lived animals should be most sensitive to adult survival; the rates to which λ is most sensitive should be those with the smallest temporal variances; and stochastic environmental events should most affect the rates to which λ is least sensitive. To date, most analyses attempting to examine these predictions have been inadequate, their validity being called into question by problems in estimating parameters, problems in estimating the variability of parameters, and problems in measuring population sensitivities to parameters. We use improved methodologies in these three areas and test these life-history predictions in a population of red-tailed tropicbirds ( Phaethon rubricauda ). We support our first prediction that λ is most sensitive to survival rates. However the support for the second prediction that these rates have the smallest temporal variance was equivocal. Previous support for the second prediction may be an artifact of a high survival estimate near the upper boundary of 1 and not a result of natural selection canalizing variances alone. We did not support our third prediction that effects of environmental stochasticity (El Niño) would most likely be detected in vital rates to which λ was least sensitive and which are thought to have high temporal variances. Comparative data-sets on other seabirds, within and among orders, and in other locations, are needed to understand these environmental effects.

Oikos↗

USGS1972

Preliminary photointerpretation map of landslide and other surficial deposits of the Mount Hamilton quadrangle and parts of the Mount Boardman and San Jose quadrangles, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties, California

The nine San Francisco Bay region counties lie within a geologically active, young, and dynamic part of the central and northern Coast Ranges of California. Significant movements of the earth's crust are occurring here at the present time, posing numerous problems to urbanization, including some of special concern. Geological processes such as fault movements, earthquakes, land subsidence, landsliding, slow downslope movement of bedrock and surficial materials, coastal and stream erosion, flooding, and sedimentation are all potentially hazardous. Because of these factors, an understanding of the operation of physical processes in the bay region is desirable for harmonious, efficient, and safe land-use planning, particularly now, with greatly expanded pressures for urban growth. This map presents preliminary information about one aspect of the physical environment necessary to sound land-use planning--the nature and distribution of surficial deposits. Because surficial deposits are common and well developed in much of the bay region, it is useful to know how and why they have formed, as well as what properties they possess. When maps like this are used in combination with other types of environmental information, such as data on soils, bedrock geology, slopes, vegetation, climatic variation, seismic response, and hydrology, it should be easier to arrive at sound decisions regarding the physical aspects of land use. The U.S. Geological Survey is studying many of these factors in the bay region and hopes to provide the community with much of the required information as part of its San Francisco Bay Region Study in cooperation with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The representation of surficial deposits on this map reflects the way in which a geologist, working exclusively with aerial photographs, interpreted the origin of various elements of the present landscape. The deposits shown here have not been examined in the field. However, by viewing overlapping vertical aerial photographs through a stereoscope, the geologist sees a three-dimensional relief model of the ground surface and can study and interpret the origins of landforms with considerable ease. In fact, for mapping surficial deposits, particularly in reconnaissance-type studies, photointerpretation has advantages over both ground observations and laboratory studies of surficial materials. Of course, better information can be provided when all aspects of the study are integrated. These preliminary photointerpretation maps are only the first stage in a detailed study of surficial deposits in the bay region, but they should provide land-use planners with immediately useful information about the regional distribution of landslide and other surficial deposits. This map indicates the dominant surficial processes that have probably been operative by showing the distribution of different types of surficial deposits. Processes such as weathering, erosion, sedimentation, and the slow as well as rapid downslope movement of earth materials have constantly reshaped the land surface in the past and will continue to in the future, although at varying rates. The processes are interrelated to varying degrees. For example, crustal uplift of the Coast Ranges will lead to increased erosion and downcutting by streams that in turn generally results in increased deposition of sediments in river valleys, lakes, and shoreline areas. Older flood planes and river deposits may be eroded, leaving elevated terrace deposits. In addition, downcutting by streams may cause adjacent slopes to become unstable, thereby increasing the possibility of slope failures. Man's activities can alter natural physical processes in many ways. Simple acts such as overwatering a lawn or placing a septic tank drainfield in ground that is marginally stable may weaken the bedrock and surficial materials enough to induce landsliding. Relatively stable areas may be made unstable as a result of construction activities that involve cutting or oversteepening of natural slopes. Engineers, builders, conservationists, and others concerned with land use must evaluate the potential effects of all types of development, and maps that show the nature and distribution of surficial deposits should provide much of the basic information they need. This map, then, shows the cumulative effects of various processes that have yielded surficial deposits up to the time the photographs used for photointerpretation were taken. It does not indicate directly areas where processes will be most active, nor does it show the rate at which they will operate. However, knowledge of the history of geologic events is a key to understanding and predicting the evolution of an area, even where man's activities significantly change the character of the land. Almost all new landslides, for example, occur in areas with a history of landslide activity.

California↗

USGS1976

Reproductive rate and temporal spacing of nesting of red-winged blackbirds in upland habitat

The literature contains numerous studies on Red-winged Blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) reproduction. Francis (1971) summarized eight studies dealing with nesting success. These and other studies have also provided information on breeding chronology, clutch sizes, sex ratios, survival rates for eggs and nestlings, reproductive physiology, and other life history aspects of reproduction. With few exceptions, these studies have provided no data on the number of young fledged per female, per territorial male, or per unit area. This is especially true for upland nesting habitats where, at least in the midwestern United States, most Red-wings now nest (Graber and Graber 1963, Dyer et al. 1973). Also insufficient quantitative information is available on the extent and nature of renesting (i.e. nesting more than once in a nesting season) and on movements of adult females during the nesting season. A better understanding of these aspects of reproduction is critical for the development of an accurate population-dynamics model for the species. Such a model is sorely needed to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of proposed population management strategies in places where blackbirds are deemed a health or safety hazard, or cause damage to agricultural crops (Tosh et al. 1970, Solman 1971, Stone et al. 1972). This study had three objectives: (1) to determine the distribution, size, and number of Red-winged Blackbird territories for an old-field habitat; (2) to determine the number of nesting females, nesting success, extent of renesting, and number of young fledged for these territories; and (3) to examine movements of female Red-wings during the nesting season.

The Auk↗

USGS2000

An overview of arsenic mass-poisoning in Bangladesh and West Bengal, India

The largest mass poisoning in the world, perhaps in history, is happening in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. Many thousands of people suffer from arsenic skin disorders and are dying from cancer. About 19 million are estimated to be at risk. The discovery of the arsenic poisoning from tubewell drinking water was made in 1983, but it took about 10 years to be formally recognized as a large-scale problem. The source of the arsenic is natural and three hypotheses have been proposed for its mobilization: oxidation of arsenian pyrite, reductive iron dissolution with release of adsorbed arsenic, and competitive adsorption from phosphate. The processes causing arsenic mobilization in the Bengal Delta are still poorly understood and further research is needed to design long-term remediation strategies.

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

Vegetation projections for Wind Cave National Park with three future climate scenarios: Final report in completion of Task Agreement J8W07100052

Introduction The effects of climate change on the natural resources protected by Parks will likely be substantial, but geographically variable, due to local variation in climate trajectories and differences among ecosystems in their vulnerability to climate change. The projections of general circulation models (GCMs) indicate the possible magnitude and direction of future climate change for a region, but the utility of these projections for more local scales, those of individual National Park Service (NPS) units, are more uncertain because the coarse-scale GCMs lack much of the topographic detail that alters local climates. In addition, complex, interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, fire, and herbivores on the vegetation that is the foundational natural resource of many NPS units present challenges in assessing the effects of projected future climates on plant and animal assemblages managed by the NPS. In spring 2009, Wind Cave National Park (WICA) served as a case study in a workshop assessing the use of scenario planning as a tool for park management planning in the face of rapidly changing climate. One outcome of the workshop was the recognized need for quantitative models to better understand the range of possible vegetation changes under different future climates and management decisions. This report addresses this need; it describes our adaptation of a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) to WICA vegetation and the resulting projections of future vegetation under three future climate scenarios and 11 management scenarios determined by Park natural resource managers. Wind Cave National Park lies along a narrow transition zone between the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of the Black Hills and the mixed grass prairie that once extended with few interruptions over the lower, gentler terrain, subject to warmer, drier climate to the east and south of the Park. The location and character of this transition is strongly influenced by fire frequency and intensity (Brown and Sieg 1999). Furthermore, the mixed grass prairie occupies a broader transition zone between eastern tallgrass prairie and the shortgrass prairie of the western Great Plains. The dominance of species characteristic of these two prairie types varies with soil moisture availability, evaporative demand, and recent grazing history (Cogan et al. 1999). In addition, Wind Cave lies near the midpoint of a long gradient of C 3 (cool season) grass dominance to the north and C 4 (warm season) grass dominance to the south. The ecotonal position of WICA may make it particularly sensitive to climate change. For example, small changes in fire frequency and/or intensity and the vigor of trees vs. grass could dramatically shift the proportions of these two lifeforms. The Park hydrology is also sensitive to changes in the balance between infiltration of precipitation and evapotranspiration, as on average, only a small fraction of annual precipitation reaches the deeper soil layers that feed permanent streamflow. The resources at risk at Wind Cave NP include the Cave itself, as well as small backcountry caves, a genetically important bison herd, and other prairie species including the black-tailed prairie dog and endangered black-footed ferrets. All of these resources will be directly affected by climate change impacts on vegetation and hydrology. Natural resource management challenges at WICA are substantial, diverse, and intertwined. Aboveground, the park has been recognized as exemplary for its high quality vegetation (Marriot et al. 1999), though the park is relatively small for the diversity of vegetation types and species that it supports. Even without a changing climate, maintaining the integrity of the plant communities is complicated by the park’s legislated responsibility to maintain viable populations of bison, elk and pronghorn. In addition, the federally endangered black-footed ferret was recently re-introduced to the park. This species requires large extents of prairie dog towns for prey and habitat. Prairie dogs impact vegetation by constant clipping, grazing and soil disturbance, thereby affecting plant composition and productivity. Moreover, naturally high interannual climate variability and the strong influence of precipitation on grass productivity in this region combine to yield high interannual variability in the amount of forage available for the wildlife that the park is tasked to maintain. Finally, fire, which is now primarily controlled by WICA and NPS Northern Great Plains fire management programs, is intertwined with all other natural resource issues at WICA, as it can impact prairie dog colony and forest expansion, ungulate foraging behavior, invasive plant species, and hydrological processes. Although not capable of capturing all of these complexities, dynamic vegetation models do provide a means for quantitatively projecting vegetation futures in future climates under plausible fire and grazing regimes. Our work uses the DGVM MC1 to simulate the effects of future climate projections and management practices on the vegetation of WICA. MC1 is designed to project potential vegetation as influenced by natural processes and hence is appropriate for national parks, where conservation of native biota and ecosystems is of great importance. Since the initial application of MC1 to a small portion of WICA (Bachelet et al. 2000), the model has been altered to improve model performance with the inclusion of dynamic fire. Applying this improved version to WICA required substantial recalibration, during which we have made a number of improvements to MC1 that will be incorporated as permanent changes. In this report we document these changes and our calibration procedure following a brief overview of the model. We compare the projections of current vegetation to the current state of the park and present projections of vegetation dynamics under future climates downscaled from three GCMs selected to represent the existing range in available GCM projections. In doing so, we examine the consequences of different management options regarding fire and grazing, major aspects of biotic management at Wind Cave.

South Dakota↗