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USGS2005

Regional economic effects of current and proposed management alternatives for Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge

The National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997 requires all units of the National Wildlife Refuge System to be managed under a Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP). The CCP must describe the desired future conditions of a Refuge and provide long range guidance and management direction to achieve Refuge purposes. Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), located 27 miles northeast of Aberdeen, South Dakota, is in the process of developing a range of management goals, objectives, and strategies for the CCP. The CCP for Sand Lake NWR must contain an analysis of expected effects associated with current and proposed Refuge management strategies. Special interest groups and local residents often criticize a change in Refuge management, especially if there is a perceived negative impact to the local economy. Having objective data on income and employment impacts may show that these economic fears are drastically overstated. Quite often, residents do not realize the extent of economic benefits a Refuge provides to a local community; yet at the same time overestimate the impact of negative changes. Spending associated with Refuge recreational activities such as wildlife viewing and hunting can generate considerable tourism activity for the regional economy. Refuge personnel typically spend considerable amounts of money purchasing supplies in the local lumber and hardware stores, repairing equipment and purchasing fuel at the local service stations, as well as reside and spend their salaries in the community. The purpose of this study was to provide the economic analysis needed for the Sand Lake NWR CCP by evaluating the regional economic impacts associated with the Sand Lake NWR Draft CCP management strategies. For Refuge CCP planning, an economic impact analysis describes how current (No Action Alternative) and proposed management activities (alternatives) affect the local economy. This type of analysis provides two critical pieces of information: (1) it illustrates a refuge’s contribution to the local community; and (2) it can help in determining whether local economic effects are or are not a real concern in choosing among management alternatives. Sand Lake NWR is currently managed to improve and maintain habitat for nesting and resting waterfowl and other migratory birds, such as diving and puddle ducks, geese, grebes, herons, egrets, gulls, and terns. There are three alternatives evaluated in the draft CCP. Alternative 1, the No Action alternative, would continue Refuge management at current levels and would not involve extensive restoration of cropland, grassland, and wetland habitat or improvements to roads, interpretive, and administrative facilities. No new funding or staff levels would occur and programs would follow the same direction, emphasis, and intensity as they do at present. Alternative 2 would maximize the biological potential of the refuge for species of grassland-nesting birds. This would be accomplished through intense management of upland habitat for nesting migratory birds, minimal management for resident species, and minimization of public use that may interfere with migratory bird production. The third alternative takes an integrated approach, with management practices that would serve to maximize the biological potential of Sand Lake for migratory birds. This report first provides a description of the local community and economy near the Refuge. An analysis of current and proposed management strategies that could affect the local economy is then presented. The Refuge management activities of economic concern in this analysis are Refuge personnel staffing and Refuge spending within the local community, and spending in the local community by Refuge visitors.

Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge↗

USGS2010

Macroinvertebrate-based assessment of biological condition at selected sites in the Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 2000-07

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado River Water Conservation District, Eagle County, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority, Colorado Department of Transportation, City of Aurora, Town of Eagle, Town of Gypsum, Town of Minturn, Town of Vail, Vail Resorts, Colorado Springs Utilities, Denver Water, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS), compiled macroinvertebrate (73 sites, 124 samples) data previously collected in the Eagle River watershed from selected USGS and FS studies, 2000-07. These data were analyzed to assess the biological condition (that is, biologically ?degraded? or ?good?) at selected sites in the Eagle River watershed and determine if site class (for example, urban or undeveloped) described biological condition. An independently developed predictive model was applied to calculate a site-specific measure of taxonomic completeness for macroinvertebrate communities, where taxonomic completeness was expressed as the ratio of observed (O) taxa to those expected (E) to occur at each site. Macroinvertebrate communities were considered degraded at sites were O/E values were less than 0.80, indicating that at least 20 percent of expected taxa were not observed. Sites were classified into one of four classes (undeveloped, adjacent road or highway or both, mixed, urban) using a combination of riparian land-cover characteristics, examination of topographic maps and aerial imagery, screening for exceedances in water-quality standards, and best professional judgment. Analysis of variance was used to determine if site class accounted for variability in mean macroinvertebrate O/E values. Finally, macroinvertebrate taxa observed more or less frequently than expected at urban sites were indentified. This study represents the first standardized assessment of biological condition of selected sites distributed across the Eagle River watershed. Of the 73 sites evaluated, just over half (55 percent) were considered in good biological condition (O/E greater than 0.80). The remaining sites were either consistently biologically degraded (30 percent; O/E less than 0.80) or varied annually between good and degraded condition (15 percent; O/E is less than or greater than 0.80). Sites primarily affected by urbanization were among the most severely degraded (lowest O/E values) when compared to other site classes. Although most urban sites were among the most severely degraded (lowest O/E values), a few sites had nearly intact macroinvertebrate communities (O/E near 1.0). Similar observations were noted among sites classified as mixed. Thirteen macroinvertebrate taxa were indentified that occurred more or less frequently than expected at urban sites. Additionally, six other taxa were impartial (tolerant) to the same conditions. Combined, these 19 taxa provide an opportunity to enhance the interpretation of future studies in the Eagle River watershed, but will require better insight into the responses of these taxa to specific stressors. Understanding the sources of variability affecting biological condition along with why some sites expected to be degraded, but showed otherwise, will have clear implications for mitigation efforts. Integrating results of this study with field and laboratory investigations will greatly enhance the ability to identify causal factors affecting biological condition at degraded sites, the logical next step. Information generated from such integrative studies will be imperative for well targeted mitigation efforts in the Eagle River watershed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2023

Integrated science strategy for assessing and monitoring water availability and migratory birds for terminal lakes across the Great Basin, United States

Executive Summary In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established the Saline Lake Ecosystems Integrated Water Availability Assessment (IWAAs) to monitor and assess the hydrology of terminal lakes in the Great Basin and the migratory birds and other wildlife dependent on those habitats. Scientists from across the USGS (with specialties in water quantity, water quality, limnology, avian biology, data science, landscape ecology, and science communication) formed the Saline Lake Ecosystems IWAAs Team. The team has developed this regional strategic science plan to guide data collection and assessment activities at terminal lakes in the Great Basin. The U.S. Congress requested the USGS to establish the Saline Lake Ecosystems IWAAs in response to historically low water levels at terminal lakes and associated wetlands across the Great Basin. Not all Great Basin terminal lakes have high salinity; however, all terminal lakes occur in endorheic, closed, basins with no surface-water outflow. Low lake levels across the Great Basin are the result of increased water use for agriculture and municipalities, drought conditions, and a warming climate. Great Basin terminal lake water extents have decreased by as much as 90 percent over the last 150 years, and terminal lake wetlands have decreased in area by as much as 47 percent since 1984. Lake elevations and wetland areas are primarily supported by freshwater inputs from snowmelt feeding upgradient rivers, streams, and springs. These freshwater inputs have been severely reduced because of continued and increased surface-water diversions and surface-water capture through groundwater pumping for agriculture, mining, and public supply as well as unprecedented drought conditions and warming temperatures related to climate change. Water quality, specifically salinity, is highly variable for terminal lakes of the Great Basin, and this variability is a result of the balance between freshwater inflow and evaporation. Variability of salinity at each of the terminal lakes can be affected by lake morphology, hydrogeologic features of the basin, annual variability in weather patterns, and changes in upgradient water use. Hypersaline terminal lakes provide abundant food resources such as brine shrimp and brine flies that support nesting and migrating birds. The density and composition of invertebrates are closely tied to lake salinity. Increased salinity can exceed the tolerance of invertebrates, severely limiting their biomass. In contrast, decreased salinity can lead to altered invertebrate community composition, reducing the abundance of optimal avian prey resources. Great Basin terminal lake ecosystems, including open-water and adjacent aquatic and terrestrial environments, provide resources necessary to sustain many animal populations throughout the year. Although a variety of taxa use terminal lakes, these ecosystems are of acute importance for the millions of migratory waterbirds (for example, shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl) dependent on the network of terminal lakes and their associated wetlands. Migratory birds transiting the Pacific and Central Flyways use Great Basin terminal lake ecosystems throughout the year to feed, nest, and transit between wintering and breeding ranges. As such, successful conservation of birds and their habitats requires coordinated management of water and habitats across the Great Basin network of terminal lakes and wetlands. The linkages between water availability and ecosystem vulnerability of terminal lakes in the Great Basin are not well understood. The vulnerability of terminal lakes is related to the factors driving change and adaptive capacity of the lake ecosystem. Saline lake ecosystems are vulnerable when changes in water quantity affect ecosystem function. Water quantity affects salinity, which affects food webs and habitat; these linkages can be investigated with water-quality and food web monitoring. Water quantity also affects inundated habitat, which can be quantified through remote sensing. It is necessary to quantify hydroclimatic and water use controls on water availability to terminal lakes to assess the response of the ecosystems. Remotely sensed data can provide a broad-scale and long-term synoptic view of terminal lake hydrologic characteristics, but ground observations are required to interpret changes in water quality and ecological functions. Some terminal lake basins have ongoing monitoring and modeling efforts within the Great Basin (for example, Great Salt Lake, Carson River Basin), yet most monitoring locations are hydrologically upgradient and too far away from lake inflows to provide an accurate assessment of hydrological trends for the lake ecosystems. Other terminal lakes have no long-term hydrological monitoring in their respective watersheds (for example, Lake Abert). Ecological data collection in the Great Basin is also insufficient to understand how many birds exist on the landscape, how birds use the mosaic of terminal-lake habitats as an interconnected system, and how Great Basin terminal lakes are linked to the larger continental system of the Pacific and Central Flyways. Across agencies and organizations, tracking bird movement, abundance, and diversity is inconsistent, with some lakes having once- or twice-a-year bird survey efforts and a few locations having more intensive ecological data-gathering efforts (for example, Great Salt Lake, Lake Abert). Bridging hydrological and ecological information gaps will improve understanding of the trends in water supply and water quality, habitat availability and usage, and impacts on vulnerable waterbird species, all of which would be used by managers in coordinated conservation of this unique network of terminal-lake habitats. The terminal lakes of the Great Basin are part of the Basin and Range physiographic province that extends from the Colorado Plateau on the east to the Sierra Nevada on the west, and from the Snake River Plain on the north to the Garlock fault and the Mojave block on the south. The Great Basin is larger than 650,000 square kilometers and encompasses most of the State of Nevada but also extends to western Utah, eastern California, southeastern Idaho, southwestern Wyoming, and southeastern Oregon. The climate is arid to semiarid with a hydrologic regime that is snowmelt dominated, providing as much as 75 percent of total annual runoff for the region. Terminal lakes of the Great Basin occupy the lowest areas of closed (endorheic) drainage basins, such that lake levels and water quality respond rapidly to surface-water inflow. Terminal lakes provide local and regional economic value to the States in the Great Basin, including mineral extraction, aquaculture, public works, and recreational uses. As an example, assessments of Great Salt Lake’s ecological health and economic impact find hemispheric importance for the former and regional importance for the latter. Great Salt Lake creates about 7,000 jobs and $2 billion of economic output per year, most of which would be lost with further declines in lake level. The objectives of this Science Strategy are threefold: (1) to identify how changing water availability affects the quality, diversity, and abundance of habitats supporting continental waterbird populations; (2) to highlight the scientific monitoring and assessment needs of Great Basin terminal lakes; and (3) to support coordinated management and conservation actions to benefit those ecosystems, migratory birds, and other wildlife. There are long-term hydrological, ecological, and societal challenges associated with terminal lakes ecosystems in the Great Basin. This Science Strategy benefits partners by providing a conceptual model, nested at different spatial extents, that identifies key scientific information needs to inform coordinated implementation of management and conservation plans within and among hydrologic basins to address these complex challenges.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of selected headwater streams along the Allegheny Front, Blair County, Pennsylvania, July 2011–September 2013

The Altoona Water Authority (AWA) obtains all of its water supply from headwater streams that drain western Blair County, an area underlain in part by black shale of the Marcellus Formation. Development of the shale-gas reservoirs will require new access roads, stream crossing, drill-pad construction, and pipeline installation, activities that have the potential to alter existing stream channel morphology, increase runoff and sediment supply, alter streamwater chemistry, and affect aquatic habitat. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Altoona Water Authority and Blair County Conservation District, investigated the water quality of 12 headwater streams and biotic health of 10 headwater streams. Channel morphology was characterized at 10 of 12 stream sites using 500-foot (minimum) longitudinal profiles, four cross-sections each, and pebble counts. Channel slopes ranged from 0.008 in Poplar Run near Newry to 0.045 in Mill Run. In general, streams draining watersheds of 5 square miles or less and at higher elevation had the steepest slopes. On the basis of the median particle size, determined during pebble counts, the streambed substrate can be characterized as cobble (Mill Run, Bells Gap Run, Tipton Run, and Sink Run), a mix of gravel and cobble (South Poplar Run, Dry Gap Run, Glenwhite Run, Sugar Run, Blair Gap Run), and gravel (Poplar Run, Newry). Daily mean values of gage height were determined, and continuous (30-minute interval) data consisting of specific conductance and water temperature were collected, at four sites; each site showed typical seasonal fluctuations and the effects of precipitation. Streamflow affected discrete water-quality. Dissolved oxygen always increased with increased streamflow. Most cations (including barium and strontium), along with pH, specific conductance, and total dissolved solids, decreased with greater streamflow, reflecting the dilution effect of moderately acidic surface runoff and precipitation on groundwater discharge (base flow) into the stream channels. Concentrations of trace elements varied by constituent and streamflow. On the basis of the results of water-quality analyses for the selected constituents, the water quality in 9 of the 12 streams can be considered fair or attaining with no measured constituent exceeding a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum or secondary contaminant level. Abandoned mine drainage (AMD) affects Glenwhite Run, Blair Gap Run, and Sugar Run. For Sugar Run, the AMD is reflected in the elevated iron concentration (greater than 300 micrograms per liter). Manganese concentrations greater than 50 micrograms per liter were measured in Glenwhite Run, Sugar Run, and Blair Gap Run. A mixing curve based upon chloride/bromide ratios for two end points—precipitation and deicing salts—indicate that deicing salt is migrating to the streams. A similar curve representative of late-emerging flowback water from Marcellus gas wells indicated that the surface-water samples had not been influenced by such brines. On the basis of the concentration of major ions, the streams in the study area generally had mixed cation and anion compositions. Calcium is the dominant cation in one stream. Carbonate and bicarbonate are the dominant anions for two streams, and sulfate is dominant in three streams. The remaining six streams do not have a dominant ion. Biotic health was characterized at 10 of 12 stream sites; the two sites excluded were established late in the study period (May 2013) for refinement of water quality in the headwaters of Poplar Run and the location of Marcellus Formation gas wells. On the basis of the Maryland Index of Biotic Integrity (MdIBI) for fish assemblages, 8 of 10 streams can be considered in fair health. Tipton Run had the highest MdIBI score (3.75) and the greatest number of native species. South Poplar Run had the lowest MdIBI score (1.75); pollution tolerant blacknose dace was dominant. On the basis of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity, 9 of 10 streams were characterized as attaining, with scores as high as 88.9 at Tipton Run. Only Sugar Run was characterized as impaired, with a score of 40.4.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2010

Methylmercury cycling, bioaccumulation, and export from agricultural and non-agricultural wetlands in the Yolo Bypass

This 18-month field study addresses the seasonal and spatial patterns and processes controlling methylmercury (MeHg) production, bioaccumulation, and export from natural and agricultural wetlands of the Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area (YBWA). The data were collected in conjuntion with a Proposition 40 grant from the State Water Resources Control Board in support of the development of Best Management Practices (BMP's) for reducing MeHg loading from agricultural lands in the wetland-dominated Yolo Bypass to the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The four managemenr-based questions addressed in this study were: 1. Is there a different among agricultural and managfed wetland types in terms of Me Hg dynamic (production, degradation, bioaccumulation, or export)? 2. Does water residence time influence MeHg dynamics? 3. Does the application of sulfate-based fertilizer impact MeHg production rates? 4. Does the presence (or absence) of vegetation influence MeHg production rates? Measurements of MeHg concentrations in sediment, water, and biota (plants, invertebrates, and fish) were made to assess management-level patterns in five wetland types, which included three type of shallowly-flooded agricultural wetlands (white rice, wild rice, and fallow) and two types of managed wetlands (permanently and seasonally flooded). To strengthen our understanding of the processes underlying the seasonal and spatial patterns of MeHg cycling, additional exploratory factors were measured including ancillary sediment and water quality parameters, stable isotope fractionation (oxygen, sulfur, carbon, and nitrogen), photodemethylation rates, and daily-integrated hydrologic budgets. Samples and field data were collected from May 2007 to July 2008, and nearly all sample analyses were completed by September 2008 as per the Quality Assurance Program Plan (QAPP) requirements. Although wetland type was a major factor that drove the study design, within-field hydrology also proved to be an important factor controlling aqueous MeHg and total mercury (THg) concentrations and export. Overall, agricultural wetlands exhibited higher MeHg concentrations in overlying water, sediment, and biota than did managed seasonal and permanent wetlands. This appears to be partly due to higher rates of sediment in microbial production of MeHg on agricultural wetlands during the fall through spring period. Both sulfate- and iron-reducing bacteria have been implicated in the MeHg production process, and both were demonstrably active in all wetlands studied; however, sulfate-reducing bacteria were not stimulated by the addition of sulfate-based fertilizer to agricultural wetlands, suggesting that easily-degraded (labile) organic matter, rather than sulfate, was limiting their activity in these field types. The data suggest that agriculturally-managed soils promoted MeHg production through 1) enhanced microbial activity via higher temperatures and larger pools of labile carbon, and 2) enhanced pools of microbially available inorganic divalent mercury (Hg(II)) resulting from a decrease in reduced-sulfur, solid-phase minerals under oxic or only mildly reducing conditions. MeHg mass balances were assessed by comparing filed-specific MeHg loads for inlets vs. outlet flows. The overall mass balance for MeHg in surface water during the summer irrigation period (June - September 2007) indicated little to no net MeHg export from the six agricultural wetlands taken as a whole. Of the six agricultural wetlands, there was net overall MeHg export from two fields (one fallow and one white rice) during August, and from four of the six fields (one fallow, one white rice, and two wild rice) during September) Over the entire summer irrigation period, two of the fields (one fallow and one wild rive) showed net MeHg export, and the other four fields showed wither net import or no significant change. Rates of measured photomethylation and exchange between sediment and water pools suggest that both processes may be responsible for the lack of MeHg export. Despite significant differences during winter months between fields in surface water concentrations of MeHg, MeHg loads were not calculated in mid-winter because flood waters had overtopped field boundaries and field fidelity could not be established. During the summer 2007 irrigation season, surface water out-flows from agricultural wetlands were 9%-36% of inlet flows, and evaporation rates explained most of this water loss, with infiltration likely accounting for the remainder. Unfiltered aqueous MeHg concentrations increased from <1 ng L -1 in source waters to up to 10 ng L -1 in agricultural wetland drains during the summer irrigation period. Increases in solute concentration caused by evapoconcentration were estimated by determining concentration factors (outflow/inflow) for chloride (a conservative dissolved constituent) and by measuring oxygen isotope ratios ( 18 O/ 16 O, expressed as δ 18 O) in water. Increases in MeHg concentration from inflows-to-outflows exceeded those caused by evapoconcentration on several fields during the summer irrigation season. This was especially true when initial surface water MeHg concentrations were low, as seen in the southern block of fields receiving irrigation water directly from the Toe Drain. The northern block of fields received irrigation water from Greens Lake, which included Toe Drain water plus recirculated drain water from other agricultural fields within the Yolo Bypass and west of the Yolo Bypass; as such, the northern fields showed a smaller percentage increase in MeHg concentration because initial MeHg concentrations in surface water inflows were greater than in inputs to the southern fields. Mercury concentrations in fish were greater in agricultural wetlands white rice and wild rice) than in the two permanently flooded wetlands. Additionally, Hg concentrations in biota showed a general increase from inlets to outlets withing agricultural wetlands, but not within permanent wetlands. This was particular evident in white rice fields where caged western mosquitofish at the outlets had Hg concentrations that were more than 4 times higher than in caged fish held at the inlets. Similar spatial patterns in Hg bioaccumulation in agricultural and permanent wetlands were seen for wild populations of western mosquitofish and Mississippi silversides. In contrast to fish, invertebrates, such as water-boatman (Corixidae) and back swimmers (Notonectidae), had greater Hg concentrations in permanent wetlands than in tempoarirly flooded agricultural wetlands, Fish THg concentrations were weakly correlated with water MeHg,a and not correlated with sediment MeHg. In contrast, invertebrate MeHg concentrations were more strongly correlated with sediment MeHg than with water MeHg concentrations. These results illustrate the complexity of MeHg bioaccumulation through food webs and indicate the importance of simultaneously using multiple biosentinels when monitoring MeHg production and bioaccumulation. Despite high sediment production rates and water concentrations in agricultural wetlands, MeHg export was physically limited by hydrologic export for all wetlands studied. We suggest that load reduction is maximized by limiting water throughout, but that on-site biota exposure is maximized by this loner water residence time. While field-specific hydrologic loads could not be fully quantified during flood conditions in February 2008, we suggest that the primary period of MeHg export from Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area is during those winter flooding periods when overall microbial activity and MeHg production in agricultural soils is fueled by the decomposition of rice straw, and when hydrologic flowthrough is maximal. Local stakeholders participated in two workshops related to this study, demonstrating an interest in understanding factors controlling MeHg production, export, and bioaccumulation. The results of this field study show that permanently flooded, naturally vegetated wetlands are unlikely to a large source of MeHg production within the YBWA, in contrast with agriculturally-managed wetlands. MeHg loading to Toe Drain waters of the Yolo Bypass may be reduced by lowering rated of hydrologic export from agricultural wetlands during the growing season and especially during rice harvest, However, under these water-holding conditions, biota living within agricultural wetlands may thus be exposed to higher MeHg concentrations in surface water, As observed in this study, rapid bioacculumaltion over a 2-month period led to MeHg concentrations in invertebrates and fish more than 6 and 11 times higher, respectively, than proposed TMDL target values to protect wildlife (0.03 ppm ww). The results of this field study, together with the information from YBWA stakeholders, provide a more definitive understanding of how MeHg cycling and bioaccumulation respond to habitat differences and specific management practices. These results directly address 4 core components of CBDA's Mercury Strategy for the Bay-Delta Ecosystem (Wiener et al., 2003a): a) Quantification and evaluation of THg and MeHg sources, b) Quantification of effects of ecosystem restoration on MeHg exposure, c) Assessment of ecological risk, and d) Identification and testing of potential management approaches for reducing MeHg contamination. In addition, the quantitative results reported here assess the effect of current land use practices in the Yolo Bypass MeHg production, bioaccumulation and export, and provide process-based advice towards achieving current goals of the RWQCB-CVR's Sacramento -- San Joaquin Delta Estuary TMDL for Methyl & Total Mercury (Wood et al., 2010b). Further work is necessary to evaluate biotic exposure in the Yolo Bypass Wildlife Area at higher trophic levels (e.g. birds), to quantify winter hydrologic flux of MeHg to the larger Delta ecosystem, and to evaluate rice straw management options to limit labile carbon supplies to surface sediment during winter months. In summary, agricultural management of rice fields -- specifically the periodic flooding and production of easily degraded organic matter -- promotes the production of MeHg beyond rates seen in naturally vegetated wetlands, whether seasonally or permanently flooded., The exported load from MeHg from these agricultural wetlands may be controlled by limiting hydrologic export from fields to enhance on-site MeHg removal processes, but the tradeoff is that this impoundement increases Me Hg exposure to resident organisms.

California↗

USGS2024

Perspectives on equitable co-production workshop report

The co-production of knowledge is increasingly recognized as an approach to conducting research intended to achieve a societal impact. In this study, we used a broad definition of co-production, defining it as “a process that brings together diverse groups to iteratively create new knowledge and practices (1).” However, co-production has been defined and conceptualized in a variety of ways (2,3), across multiple domains, including public administration, conservation, health, education, and climate change. Theoretical definitions have been introduced by scholars like Jasanoff (4) and Ostrom (5), but definitions can also be grounded in practice (6). For example, unique definitions of co-production have been advanced for work with Arctic Indigenous Peoples (7), in the context of resource management (8), and for a specific program (9). Other similar processes of engagement, such as community-based participatory research (10), action research (11), civic science (12), community science (13), and post-normal science (14) may have overlap with the concept of co-production and have been used to describe similar processes of collaboration. These distinctions and varying definitions have been discussed extensively elsewhere (see Mach et al. 2020, Wyborn et al. 2019). In the context of co-production, power plays a crucial role in shaping interactions and outcomes. Some scholars and practitioners explicitly consider power dynamics as a central element in their definitions of co-production, recognizing how power imbalances can affect participation, decision-making, and the distribution of benefits. Others, however, might not emphasize power as prominently, focusing more on the collaborative aspects without explicitly addressing the underlying power structures. This leads to divergent objectives and priorities among projects claiming to be co-produced (2,3, 6). Chambers and colleagues (2) discussed how co-production projects in the context of sustainability usually emphasize one or more of six different goals, including: researching solutions, empowering voices, brokering power, reframing power, navigating differences, and reframing agency. Because power dynamics are inherent in co-production (15), equity dimensions should be considered in these definitions and conceptualizations. Yet, in the context of government or academically led climate change research and programs, equity is a relatively new focus, even among programs that have been engaging a co-production approach for decades (9). Alternatively, in some recent work the concept of equity in co-production is explicit, but it has only been considered in a limited context (7). Here, we present a discussion about co-production that is informed by research, practice, and community perspectives across partnerships from a range of regions and topics. We are specifically interested in how different actors in these projects think about equity and work towards more equitable approaches in the context of their co-production work. This understanding is needed, as the federal government has increasingly focused on co-production approaches in the design of their programs and funding calls, and most recently the Biden administration has called on federal agencies to more intentionally center equity for underserved groups of people in their work (16). Furthermore, with the Biden administration’s focus on environmental and climate justice, the opportunity for researchers and their societal partners to engage in co-production is expanding. Numerous programs within federal agencies have embraced a co-production approach, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Adaptation Partnerships (CAP; formerly called the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments or RISA program) (9,17), Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs)(18), and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs. However, the actual implementation of co-production processes varies significantly (1,19), with multiple implications for the design of equitable partnerships. Researchers, their partners, and funders have frequently cited many tensions and challenges in the successful implementation of co-production, including higher resource demands and few systemic structures for support (20). Practically implementing co-production, especially with people who have been underrepresented in or historically excluded from research activities, must consider fairness and the accessibility of co-production processes. While co-production is often cited as important for environmental governance, issues like power and equity are infrequently addressed (15). To explore this topic, we identified and studied three projects that centered on equity in co-production from three federal climate programs (CASC, CAP, USDA Climate Hubs) in three different regions of the U.S. (Alaska, Northeast, Southeast). We aimed to identify consensus or divergence in perspectives related to equitable co-production processes to elevate effective practices and link co-production research and practice. Findings from interviews and a survey (explained further in Akerlof et al., 2023) informed a twoday hybrid workshop involving participants from the three case studies, as well as individuals representing research, governmental, non-governmental, and community organizations across the United States. Participants also included scholars of co-production, program coordinators, and people who participated in co-production projects on behalf of their communities. Several boundary spanners, those practitioners who work at the intersection of the production and use of science (21,22), also attended the workshop. The goals of the workshop were to discuss and build on what was learned from the three case studies, discuss the three distinct perspectives on equitable co-production that emerged from the pre-workshop research, and draft a framework for equitable co-production processes. During the workshop, participants considered the three perspectives on equitable co-production, defining equitable co-production for each and discussing the practical implications of each, including barriers and priorities for overcoming them. We aimed to address the question: How can federal climate programs support equitable co-production processes?

Report↗

USGS2014

Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. GCC may affect freshwater mussel populations via altered stream temperatures and increased sediment loading during heavy storms. Freshwater mussels are sensitive to un-ionized ammonia that more toxic at higher temperatures. We recommend studying the interactive effects of GCC on generation and bioavailability of methylmercury and how GCC-driven shifts in bird species distributions will affect avian exposure to methylmercury. Research is needed on how decreases in acid deposition concurrent with GCC will alter the structure and function of sensitive watersheds and surface waters. Studies are needed to determine how GCC will affect HABs and avian disease, and how more severe and extensive hypoxia will affect fish and shellfish populations. Regarding amphibians, we suggest research on 1) thermal tolerance and moisture requirements of species of concern, 2) effects of multiple stressors (temperature, desiccation, contaminants, nutrients), and 3) approaches to mitigate impacts of increased temperature and seasonal drought. We recommend studies to assess which mussel species and populations are vulnerable and which are resilient to rising stream temperatures, hydrological shifts, and ionic pollutants, all of which are influenced by GCC.

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2014

Simulation of the Lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system, west-central Nevada, using PRMS and MODFLOW models

Walker Lake is a terminal lake in west-central Nevada with almost all outflow occurring through evaporation. Diversions from Walker River since the early 1900s have contributed to a substantial reduction in flow entering Walker Lake. As a result, the lake is receding, and salt concentrations have increased to a level in which Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi (Lahontan Cutthroat trout) are no longer present, and the lake ecosystem is threatened. Consequently, there is a concerted effort to restore the Walker Lake ecosystem and fishery to a level that is more sustainable. However, Walker Lake is interlinked with the lower Walker River and adjacent groundwater system which makes it difficult to understand the full effect of upstream water-management actions on the overall hydrologic system including the lake level, volume, and dissolved-solids concentrations of Walker Lake. To understand the effects of water-management actions on the lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system, a watershed model and groundwater flow model have been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation. The watershed model was developed using the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) and the groundwater flow model was constructed using the MODular groundwater FLOW model (MODFLOW) and both were calibrated for the lower Walker River Basin. These models can be incorporated in an integrated Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW (GSFLOW) model of the lower Walker River Basin. Additionally, the MODFLOW model developed for this study is useful for efficiently simulating long-term and large-scale effects of water-management actions on groundwater hydrology, streamflow, and Walker Lake level, volume, and dissolved-solids concentrations. The lower Walker River Basin PRMS model (LWR_PRMS) was constructed using a subbasin approach to aid in development and calibration, and simulates a 30-year period from 1978 to 2007 using daily time steps. The LWR_PRMS was used to estimate the distribution of groundwater recharge specified in the MODFLOW model. The highest rates of groundwater recharge occur in the Wassuk Range beneath perennial and ephemeral stream channels, whereas lower rates of recharge occur beneath alluvial fans along mountain fronts. The total groundwater recharge estimated using PRMS was about 25,000 acre-feet per year. The lower Walker River Basin MODFLOW (LWR_MF) model simulates an 89-year period using monthly time steps. The LWR_MF was constructed with an initial steady-state simulation to represent dynamic equilibrium conditions from 1908 to 1918 and then a transient simulation representing the period 1919–2007. The model was calibrated using a combination of manual and automated methods of adjusting model parameters to minimize errors between model simulated results and weighted observations of groundwater levels, streamflows, and lake level. Hydrologic conditions simulated with the LWR_MF include the movement and change in storage of groundwater, and the water budgets for Walker River, Walker Lake, and the groundwater system. The LWR_MF computed dissolved-solids concentrations for Walker Lake using simulated lake volume and an assumed constant internal salt mass of 37.2 million tons. Effects of potential changes in water management on future conditions (scenarios) of the lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system and Walker Lake from 2011 to 2070 were evaluated. Several water-management scenarios were considered, including a baseline scenario that represents no changes in system management, improved irrigation efficiencies for the Walker River Indian Irrigation Project (WRIIP), a range of increased streamflows entering the lower Walker River Basin, and, the fallowing of fields on the WRIIP. For the baseline scenario, it was assumed that streamflow conditions from 1981 to 2010 will be repeated in the future. Results indicate that Walker Lake level and volume continue to decline but at a slower rate as the surface area of the lake becomes smaller and lake evaporation decreases. Dissolved-solids concentrations in Walker Lake continue to increase and increase much more rapidly during periods when minimal flows reach the lake due to a diminished lake volume. Alternatively, in years with high runoff, lake level increases are greater and dissolved-solids decreases are greater, compared with equivalent runoffs experienced during 1981–2010. The simulated effects of improving WRIIP efficiencies on Walker River streamflows, Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved-solids concentrations, and crop consumptive use, are compared with the baseline reference scenario for a range of irrigation efficiency improvements from 0 to 25 percent over 60 years. Results indicate that water is conserved through a reduction in irrigation-induced groundwater recharge and subsequent groundwater discharge through evapotranspiration. The conserved water mostly goes to increased streamflow to Walker Lake, followed by increased crop consumptive use, then increased evaporation from Weber Reservoir. The simulated effects of increased streamflows at Walker River at Wabuska streamgage (10301500) on Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved-solids concentrations, and crop consumptive use, are compared with the baseline scenario after 60 years under two different management methods for Weber Reservoir. Results indicate Walker Lake level and dissolved-solids concentrations stabilized with increased irrigation-season streamflow of about 40,000 acre-feet per year at the Walker River at Wabuska streamgage. Walker Lake level increased, and dissolved-solids concentration decreased, with increased flows of 50,000 acre-feet per year or more. After 60 years with additional irrigation-season streamflows of 50,000 acre-feet per year, Walker Lake level increased by about 48 feet, and lake dissolved-solids concentrations decreased by about 3,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L). With 75,000 acre-feet per year of additional streamflow, Walker Lake level increased by 70 feet, and dissolved-solids concentration decreased by 7,600 milligrams per liter. The effects of fallowing of Walker River Indian Irrigation Project fields from 2007 to 2010 on Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved solids were evaluated. Fallowing resulted in a near doubling of Walker River inflow to Walker Lake during this period, an increase in Walker Lake level of about 1.4 feet, and a decrease in dissolved-solids concentration of about 540 mg/L.

Nevada↗

USGS2014

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within “water-balance subregions” (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and assumptions of 2009 urban water demand and land use. Water supplied directly from precipitation, and indirectly from reuse, captured local runoff, and groundwater is necessary but inadequate to satisfy agricultural demand without coastal and regional storage depletion that facilitates seawater intrusion. These facilities reduce potential seawater intrusion by about 45% with groundwater levels in the four regions served by the CDS projected to recover to levels a few feet above sea level. The projected recoveries are not high enough to prevent additional seawater intrusion during dry-year periods or in the deeper aquifers where pumpage is greater. While these facilities could reduce coastal pumpage by about 55% of the historical 2000–2009 pumpage for these regions, and some of the water is delivered in excess of demand, other coastal regions continue to create demands on coastal pumpage that will need to be replaced to reduce seawater intrusion. In addition, inland urban and agricultural demands continue to sustain water levels below sea level causing regional landward gradients that also drive seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is reduced by about 45% but it supplies about 55% of the recovery of groundwater levels in the coastal regions served by the CDS. If economically feasible, water from summer agricultural runoff and tile-drain returnflows could be another potential local source of water that, if captured and reused, could offset the imbalance between supply and demand as well as reducing discharge of agricultural runoff into the National Marine Sanctuary of Monterey Bay. A BMP update (2012) identifies projects and programs that will fund a conservation program and will provide additional, alternative water sources to reduce or replace coastal and inland pumpage, and to replenish the aquifers with managed aquifer recharge in an inland portion of the Pajaro Valley.

California↗

USGS2017

Nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macrobenthos

Lower trophic levels support the prey fish on which most sport fish depend. Therefore, understanding the production potential of lower trophic levels is integral to the management of Lake Ontario’s fishery resources. Lower trophic-level productivity differs among offshore and nearshore waters. In the offshore, there is concern about the ability of the lake to support Alewife (Table 1) production due to a perceived decline in productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton whereas, in the nearshore, there is a concern about excessive attached algal production (e.g., Cladophora) associated with higher nutrient concentrations—the oligotrophication of the offshore and the eutrophication of the nearshore (Mills et al. 2003; Holeck et al. 2008; Dove 2009; Koops et al. 2015; Stewart et al. 2016). Even though the collapse of the Alewife population in Lake Huron in 2003 (and the associated decline in the Chinook Salmon fishery) may have been precipitated by a cold winter (Dunlop and Riley 2013), Alewife had not returned to high abundances in Lake Huron as of 2014 (Roseman et al. 2015). Failure of the Alewife population to recover from collapse has been attributed to declines in lower trophic-level production (Barbiero et al. 2011; Bunnell et al. 2014; but see He et al. 2015). In Lake Michigan, concerns of a similar Alewife collapse led to a decrease in the number of Chinook Salmon stocked. If lower trophic-level production declines in Lake Ontario, a similar management action could be considered. On the other hand, in Lake Erie, which supplies most of the water in Lake Ontario, eutrophication is increasing and so are harmful algal blooms. Thus, there is also a concern that nutrient levels and algal blooms could increase in Lake Ontario, especially in the nearshore. Solutions to the two processes of concern—eutrophication in the nearshore and oligotrophication in the offshore—may be mutually exclusive. In either circumstance, fisheries management needs information on the productivity of lower trophic levels in Lake Ontario. In this chapter, we review the status of lower trophic levels in Lake Ontario with special attention to the current (2008-2013) and previous (2003-2007) reporting periods. During the two reporting periods, three whole-lake surveys of lower trophic levels were conducted: the Lower Trophic Level Assessment (LOLA) in 2003 and 2008 (Makarewicz and Howell 2012; Munawar et al. 2015b) and the Cooperative Science and Management Initiative (CSMI) in 2013. Analyses of the CSMI data are ongoing. In addition to the three one-year sources of information on lower trophic levels, several multi-year sources of information are available, including data from the surveillance program conducted since 1965 by Environment Canada (EC) (Dove 2009), monitoring conducted since 1980 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Great Lakes National Program Office (GLNPO) (Barbiero et al. 2014; Reavie et al. 2014), sampling for a Bioindex Program at two stations, one offshore and one in the Eastern Basin, assessments of Mysis diluviana (formerly Mysis relicta) conducted since 1980 by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Johannsson et al. 1998, 2011) and the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (OMNRF), and monitoring conducted since 1995 by the Biomonitoring Program (BMP) on the New York side of the lake (Holeck et al. 2015b). The BMP is a collaboration of the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Cornell University.

Special Publication↗

USGS2023

Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) 6-year summary, Naval Outlying Landing Field, Imperial Beach, southwestern San Diego County, California, 2014–20

Executive Summary From 2014 to 2020, a Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) banding station (station) was operated at the Naval Outlying Landing Field (NOLF), Imperial Beach, in southwestern San Diego County, California. The station was established as part of a long-term monitoring program of Neotropical migratory bird populations on NOLF and helps Naval Base Coronado (NOLF is a component) meet the goals and objectives of the Department of Defense Partners in Flight program and the Birds and Migratory Birds Management Strategies of the Naval Base Coronado Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan. The station was established in 2009 and has been in operation during the spring and summer since 2009 except for 2016 when it was not funded. The station was operated by AMEC Earth and Environmental, Inc., from 2009 to 2011, by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2012 to 2015, the San Diego Natural History Museum in 2017, and the U.S. Geological Survey again from 2018 to 2023. This report synthesizes results from 2014 to 2020. A prior report presents summaries and analyses from 2009 to 2013. The banding station at NOLF was operated according to the standard MAPS protocol with some exceptions. Ten mist nets used to capture birds were erected in fixed locations that remained consistent between and within years, with few minor relocations. Nets were open for 6 hours per day, once every 10 days (a netting period) for 13 netting periods starting April 1 each year. Occasionally, poor weather conditions (for example, rain, wind, or excessive heat) prevented net operation or forced nets to be closed early (or, rarely, late). Nets were checked periodically throughout the day and birds were removed, processed (leg bands affixed, measurements recorded), and released. From 2014 to 2020, we had 3,543 captures (including initial captures and recaptures) of a maximum of 3,264 year-unique captures (543±143 year-unique captures [the total number of individual birds captured for the first time each year]). The count of year-unique captures included 2,702 newly banded birds, 258 individuals that were recaptured from previous years, and 304 birds that were released unbanded (218 hummingbirds and 86 other birds that were intentionally released unbanded [game birds, and so forth] or escaped before banding). Individuals of 68 species were captured, 39 of which breed at or in the immediate vicinity of the MAPS banding station. Bird capture rate averaged 43±30 captures per day (corrected to account for variation in effort) for all years (range 7–163 effort-corrected captures per day) and species richness per year averaged 43±4. Bushtit ( Psaltriparus minimus ) was the most abundant species captured, followed by Orange-crowned Warbler ( Leiothlypis celata ), Wilson’s Warbler ( Cardellina pusilla ), House Finch ( Haemorhous mexicanus ), Song Sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ), and Common Yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ). The mean adult sex ratio of all species combined across all years was 54:46 male:female. Adults averaged 73±12 percent of known age captures per year (range 59–94 percent), and juveniles averaged 27±12 percent (range 6–41 percent). Nineteen sensitive species were detected at NOLF (12 captured and 7 observed only). During 2014–20, we captured one State and federally endangered species, Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ); one federally threatened species, California Gnatcatcher ( Polioptila californica ); one State endangered species, Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ); and two State species of concern, Yellow-breasted Chat ( Icteria virens ) and Yellow Warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). One additional State species of concern, Northern Harrier ( Circus hudsonius ), was observed at the MAPS banding station but not captured. Peregrine Falcon ( Falco peregrinus ) and White-tailed Kite ( Elanus leucurus ), California State fully protected species, also were observed at the MAPS banding station. Seven federal bird species of conservation concern—Calliope Hummingbird ( Selasphorus calliope ), Rufous Hummingbird ( Selasphorus rufus ), Allen’s Hummingbird ( Selasphorus sasin ), Nuttall’s Woodpecker ( Dryobates nuttallii ), Wrentit ( Chamaea fasciata ), California Thrasher ( Toxostoma redivivum ), and Lawrence’s Goldfinch ( Spinus lawrencei )—also were captured, and four additional federal bird species of conservation concern—Willet ( Tringa semipalmata ), Western Gull ( Larus occidentalis ), California Gull ( Larus californicus ), and Bullock’s Oriole ( Icterus bullockii )—were observed but not captured. Local population trends varied among species and years. From 2012 to 2019, year-round residents Bushtit, Song Sparrow, and Common Yellowthroat significantly decreased, whereas the migrant Least Bell’s Vireo increased. The total number of captures for all species except Least Bell’s Vireo was lowest in 2017, corresponding to the habitat damage caused by Kuroshio shot hole borer beetle ( Euwallacea kuroshio ) in the Tijuana River Valley. Annual productivity and annual adult survival were calculated for seven breeding species based on criteria used by the Institute for Bird Populations (Least Bell’s Vireo, Bushtit, Wrentit, House Wren [ Troglodytes aedon ], Song Sparrow, Orange-crowned Warbler, and Common Yellowthroat). Productivity was highest for most species in 2010 and 2019, years with high precipitation, and lowest in 2014 and 2018, years with low precipitation. Song Sparrow demonstrated the highest productivity among species and Least Bell’s Vireo had the lowest productivity. Annual adult survival was generally high from 2011 to 2012 and from 2018 to 2019. Bushtit had higher annual survival with lower late winter precipitation. Either temperature or precipitation was associated with productivity for all species except Wrentit, and with survival for all species except Least Bell’s Vireo and Common Yellowthroat. For most species, productivity was positively associated with precipitation, and both productivity and survival were negatively associated with temperature. Other studies have found that higher temperatures led to increased predation by snakes and birds and also increased vector-borne disease transmission, such as West Nile virus. Predicted regional increases in temperature over the next 30 years will likely affect the demographics of these species. The Song Sparrow population increased with higher breeding productivity during the previous year, and the Bushtit population increased with higher annual survival and higher productivity during the previous year. Aside from a possible positive association between survivorship and Common Yellowthroat population growth, productivity and survival rates did not appear to influence population change for other focal species.

California↗

USGS2004

Migration stopover ecology of western avian populations: A southwestern migration workshop

The importance of migration stopover sites in ensuring that migratory birds successfully accomplish their journeys between breeding and non-breeding ranges has come to the forefront of avian research. Migratory birds that breed in western United States (US) and Canada and overwinter primarily in western Mexico migrate across the arid region of northern Mexico and southwestern US. Many of these migrants use lowland riparian stopover habitats, which comprise less than 0.1% of the western U.S. landscape. These habitats represent a significant conservation priority. Recognizing the importance of migration stopover habitats in the arid southwest, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Region 6 partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to support a project---“Migration stopover ecology of western avian populations: patterns of geographic and habitat distribution.” A primary objective of the project was to convene a workshop for avian researchers, conservation professionals, and land managers involved in stopover needs of migratory birds that breed in western North America. The workshop included presentations on our current state of knowledge regarding passerine migration in western North America, techniques and technologies potentially useful in researching migration, and efforts that agencies and other partners are conducting within the realm of migration. Workshop presentations provided a backdrop for subsequent discussions, the goals of which were to identify research needs and initiate a coordinated approach to research of western migration stopover ecology. Workshop presentations spanned a wide range of concerns and interests. Highlights included indications that mid- and high-elevation riparian and montane shrubland habitats may be as crucial to western migrants in fall migration as lowland riparian habitats are in spring migration. Comparisons of eastern versus western migration systems elucidated large differences in stopover habitats used and the intensity with which certain types are used, underscoring the potential need to develop separate management approaches for eastern and western stopover sites. Presentations on techniques and technology for migration research revealed that rate of lipid deposition can serve as an indicator of habitat quality; that genetics and stable isotope analyses of feathers can be valuable tools to elucidate linkages between breeding and wintering areas; that radar imagery can be used to track large-scale movement patterns and habitat use; and that there are analytical options for combining multiple sources of information. Other presentations focused on partnership perspectives (USFWS and Sonoran Joint Venture), the genesis of a western migration monitoring network, premises of Coordinated Bird Monitoring, and how collaborative efforts could benefit migration research (e.g., combined bird and bat migration studies; linking avian researchers with fluvial geomorphologists; linking research throughout western North America; linking surveys and banding). Priority research needs and questions identified during the open discussions fell into three main categories: (1) habitat/landscape/climate relationships, (2) en route bird distribution patterns, and (3) general migration ecology. Tasks within these categories included: define the relative importance of various habitat types to migrants in spring and fall, determine what distinguishes high- from poor-quality stopover habitat; determine geographic patterns of loss in stopover habitats; model landscape attributes associated with species richness and abundance; identify effects of climate change and current climate anomalies on plant phonologies, associated insect flushes, and timing of migration; and determine effects of hydrologic changes on riparian vegetation, food availability, and stopover habitat quality. Workshop participants discussed a coordinated approach for addressing immediate research needs regarding migration patterns and crucial stopover sites and types. They envisioned a three-tiered, coordinated approach: (1) long-term research to address effects of climate change and other large-scale patterns, (2) intensive, short-term survey and monitoring efforts using a stratified random design within habitats of interest to elucidate regional patterns of distribution and habitat use, and (3) research conducted at existing survey and banding sites to address more in-depth questions (e.g., rates of lipid deposition, microhabitat use, isotope analyses). There was considerable interest in developing common research proposals to blend the broad expertise represented at this workshop. A second meeting is recommended to build on the momentum of these discussions, to facilitate collaborations, and further the goals of integrated approaches to broadscale research on migration stopover ecology.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

USGS2020

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2018

Drain tiles and groundwater resources: Understanding the relations

Executive Summary Drainage for agricultural production over the past 150 years has been an integral component of human-driven change to Minnesota’s rural landscapes. Benefits of drainage Historically, poorly drained soils across much of the State would often remain saturated or flooded after spring snowmelt, preventing timely farm operations such as tilling and planting crops (Arneman, 1963). Installation of agricultural drainage, both surface ditches and subsurface drainage, accelerated transport of water off farm fields and imparted producers higher crop yields (Beauchamp, 1987; Stoner and others, 1993). Agricultural drainage offered many other benefits such as preventing crop drown out, aerating the soil profile for improved plant growth, limiting surface runoff and soil erosion, and allowing farmers better access to croplands (Fausey and others, 1987). Without agricultural drainage on much of Minnesota’s croplands, it would have been difficult to realize high enough crop yields to remain economically viable. Environmental concerns While drainage of Minnesota croplands provided the benefits mentioned above, several environmental concerns result. These include wetland loss, degradation of downstream water quality, and reduced [potential for] recharge. Early agricultural drainage efforts (pre-20th century) led to the disappearance of much of Minnesota’s natural wetlands. Increased focus on preventing or mitigating wetland loss over the last 50 years has helped curtail further losses, even as agricultural drainage proceeds. Prior to establishment of Minnesota statehood, wetlands accounted for more than 10 million acres in Minnesota, including prairie wetlands, peatlands, and forest wetlands that comprised approximately 19 percent of the total land area (Palmer, 1915; King, 1980). In 2018, only half of Minnesota’s pre-settlement wetlands remain, mostly in parts of the State that have not experienced widespread drainage, such as northern Minnesota. Water-quality monitoring has shown that agricultural drainage, in particular the practice of subsurface drainage, provides a direct flow path for nutrient (nitrogen and soluble phosphorus) losses to surface water resources. The negative consequences of agricultural drainage on surface water quality are well documented (for example, Dinnes and others, 2002; Kladivko and others, 2004; Richards and others, 2008; Rozemeijer and others, 2010; Schottler and others, 2013). Agricultural basins with a high percentage of agricultural drainage have been implicated as part of the cause of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia zone due to excessive nitrogen export (Goolsby and Battaglin, 2001; Randall and Mulla, 2001). The connection of hydrological effects of agricultural subsurface drainage on groundwater recharge and aquifers, on the other hand, has not been well-established. Agricultural subsurface drainage intercepts infiltrating water below croplands and directly discharges the water to nearby surface waters. However, the size of the water balance shift from drained water that would have evapotranspired or run off the land to drained water that would recharge underlying aquifers has been poorly characterized (Schuh, 2008). Drain Tiles and Groundwater Given the poor accounting of subsurface drainage effects on groundwater resources, the Minnesota Ground Water Association (MGWA) deemed it imperative that we document these effects so that groundwater resources in agricultural regions with substantial drainage can be effectively managed. This white paper documents the relations of drain tiles and groundwater resources and discusses the historical significance of agricultural drainage practices, the recognized positive benefits and potential negative consequences of agricultural drainage practices, and the gaps in understanding of the connections between agricultural drainage and groundwater resources. The major messages emerged from the findings of this white paper are: Complex history. Minnesota has a long history of agricultural drainage, spanning over 150 years. Agricultural drainage, and the eventual widespread usage of subsurface drainage, can be separated into at least four distinct periods of time: (a) early drainage to get water off the land, pre-20th century; (b) the boom and bust era (1900-1945); (c) postwar resurgence of subsurface drainage and early conservation efforts (1945-1960); and, (d) emergence of the environmental movement (1960 to present). The State’s regulatory framework that both allowed for drainage and controlled its usage during these periods is complicated and has been governed by a patchwork of both State and Federal statutes. Drainage Provinces. This white paper advances the concept of tile drainage provinces to aid in the discussion of regional differences in subsurface drainage and its overall effect on groundwater resources. Built upon the concept of groundwater provinces (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2001), three distinct tile drainage provinces were conceptualized: (1) the Southeastern Province; (2) the SouthCentral Province; and, (3) the Western Province. The distinct geology and the soils that developed in these regions have implications for each region’s subsurface drainage density and the potential implications for groundwater. Knowledge gaps. Several critical knowledge gaps are identified in this paper, creating opportunities for further research to improve our understanding for better managed water resources: Extent of drainage is unknown. Direct estimates of the extent of subsurface drainage do not exist in Minnesota. However, several indirect methods have been utilized to estimate subsurface drainage, from the field-scale to countylevel through the use of geographic information system (GIS) analysis and aerial photography. Based on a 2012 U.S. Geological Survey estimate of subsurface drainage extent (Nakagaki and Wieczorek, 2016), about 21% of the land area in Minnesota has some density of subsurface drainage. Effect of drainage on underlying aquifers is unknown. A basic understanding of unconfined and confined aquifers and their recharge is necessary to connect any hydrological effects from agricultural drainage to groundwater. The basic goal of subsurface drainage to efficiently drain saturated soils clearly alters the water balance in croplands. However, its overall effect on groundwater resources has been poorly characterized, and is in large part determined by the geology below drained areas and the arrangement of underlying aquifers. Water balance shifts. An improved understanding of historical water balance shifts from pre- to post-drainage periods is necessary to understand long-term implications on net groundwater recharge. Also, more direct field-scale studies and indirect modeling studies are needed to characterize water budgets for fields with subsurface drainage.

Minnesota↗

USGS2024

Pilot framework for fish habitat assessments across tidal and non tidal waters in the Patuxent River Basin

As part of the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, all Bay States and the District of Columbia have committed to improving the condition of the Bay, which includes a goal to achieve sustainable fisheries. One outcome under that broad goal is improved effectiveness of fish habitat conservation and preservation efforts. In support of that outcome, the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (USGS-EESC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA-NCCOS) are actively developing datasets, methods, and analyses to conduct fish habitat assessments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, guided by recommendations from a regional stakeholder workshop held by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s (CBP) Fish Habitat Action Team (FHAT) in 2018. The joint USGS and NOAA team has been collaborating on methods for conducting inland and estuarine assessments and exploring whether a seamless headwater to estuary assessment could be developed. The goals of this assessment are to benefit both State and Federal fisheries managers, help advance fisheries science, and provide beneficial information for the public. While past national and regional assessments (e.g. the National Fish Habitat Partnership National Assessment) treated inland and estuarine fish habitat conditions separately due to differences in environments, GIS data representation, and data availability, a seamless habitat assessment could be of value for a broad range of stakeholders as many fish species, several of which are invasive or under federal jurisdiction, use habitats across both inland and estuarine waters. This project developed a pilot framework, explored and tested methods necessary for a finer scale, seamless assessment across both inland and estuarine waters, and demonstrated its use. Although there was interest by the CBP FHAT for the generation of a Baywide fish habitat assessment that spanned tidal salt, tidal fresh, warm non-tidal and cold non-tidal waters, there are a myriad of implementation details and considerations around conducting a Baywide assessment across all four of these general habitat areas. Therefore, the practical need to conduct a tributary-specific pilot assessment arose. At the beginning of this pilot process, members of the FHAT were presented with a decision matrix to choose a study basin using factors such as data availability and tributary size. FHAT members chose the Patuxent River basin, which has been relatively well sampled and studied. Several spatial frameworks were considered before selection of an inclusive gridded framework for summary and analysis that represented inland drainage networks and landscape influences as well as estuarine bathymetry. A suite of landscape and in-water stressor variables were summarized into the framework and were largely generalized over time. In order to assess the viability of the framework, we chose to use species distribution modeling for each of the species to test the framework’s ability to predict habitat use of non-tidal resident, estuarine resident, and migratory species. Tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), American eel (Anguilla rostrata), and white perch (Morone americana) were chosen as illustrative fish species based on data availability, and differences in life history and habitat use. A nested modeling approach, which involved successive model runs at multiple scales (1000m, 100m, and 10m raster grids) was developed to examine differences in variable importance at different spatial scales and to enhance modeling efficiency. For white perch, a complementary modeling analysis was performed for variables available only in estuarine waters. For all testing, an ensemble modeling approach was conducted, using a suite of potential statistical techniques driven by model strength and variable predictive power. The statistical testing that we conducted was intended only to test the framework and modeling approach, and not to definitively predict all habitats where specific fish species might be present. The modeling we conducted to test the framework did have some limitations. For example, the spatial distribution of favorable habitat areas for white perch was likely influenced by the predominance of fish survey locations near the center channel of the river and the use of generalized in-water conditions. For all species, the use of juvenile and adult fish survey data limits the estimation of habitat use to those life stages. Despite such limitations of the data inputs and modeling approach, we found the framework could seamlessly predict fish habitat distribution across freshwater and tidal environments and integrate the influence of landscape stressors with local in-water factors. The developed framework presented to the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team (GIT) and FHAT is informative and could potentially be used for other modeling applications in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and elsewhere. In particular the framework and modeling approach lend themselves to evaluating living resource distributions and underlying habitat conditions in shallow tidal waters and beyond, as recommended by the recent Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) report from the Chesapeake Bay Program.

Maryland↗

USGS2023

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2017

Executive Summary Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2016 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2015. Separate analyses were done for each species and also for each subpopulation of LRS. Shortnose suckers and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. Capture-recapture analyses indicated that with a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both Lost River sucker subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) from 1999 to 2015. Survival was notably lower for males from the river in 2000, 2006, and 2012, and for the shoreline areas in 2002. From 2001 to 2015, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 64 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 56 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation from 2002 to 2015. Shortnose suckers experienced lower and more variable annual survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2003, 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, female survival was low in 1999 and 2000 while male survival was low in 2002. Survival estimate precision in early years of the study; however, are poor. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial from 2001 to 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable from 2006 to 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 78 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 77 percent from 2001 to 2015. Decreases in abundance for both sexes are likely greater than these estimates indicate. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains distressed, especially for SNS. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗