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Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

Conference Paper↗

Annual growth patterns of baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum ) along salinity gradients

The effects of salinity on Taxodium distichum seedlings have been well documented, but few studies have examined mature trees in situ. We investigated the environmental drivers of T. distichum growth along a salinity gradient on the Waccamaw (South Carolina) and Savannah (Georgia) Rivers. On each river, T. distichum increment cores were collected from a healthy upstream site (Upper), a moderately degraded mid-reach site (Middle), and a highly degraded downstream site (Lower). Chronologies were successfully developed for Waccamaw Upper and Middle, and Savannah Middle. Correlations between standardized chronologies and environmental variables showed significant relationships between T. distichum growth and early growing season precipitation, temperature, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Savannah Middle chronology correlated most strongly with August river salinity levels. Both lower sites experienced suppression/release events likely in response to local anthropogenic impacts rather than regional environmental variables. The factors that affect T. distichum growth, including salinity, are strongly synergistic. As sea-level rise pushes the freshwater/saltwater interface inland, salinity becomes more limiting to T. distichum growth in tidal freshwater swamps; however, salinity impacts are exacerbated by locally imposed environmental modifications.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

Feather corticosterone reveals developmental challenges in a long-term study of juvenile northern spotted owls

Corticosterone is a steroid hormone integral to a variety of physiological pathways and is strongly associated with the vertebrate stress response. In avian species, circulating corticosterone is sequestered into developing feathers and is used as an indicator of energy allocation during feather growth and widely applied in conservation physiology. The northern spotted owl Strix occidentalis caurina is a federally threatened old-growth forest obligate of conservation concern endemic to the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. The effects of landscape characteristics and individual variation on early development in spotted owls remain unstudied despite long recognition of this knowledge gap and its potential importance to species conservation. We quantified corticosterone concentrations in 4,720 feathers from 1,056 juvenile spotted owls across seven study areas between 2001 and 2017. We used an information-theoretic approach to examine the environmental and individual factors related to feather corticosterone in juvenile spotted owls as an indicator of challenges during early development. Feather corticosterone was positively related to temperature and precipitation, and negatively related to juvenile mass at banding. We found strong support for an interaction between mass and precipitation, with greater amounts of precipitation being associated with higher levels of feather corticosterone in lighter juveniles. The temperature and precipitation metric with the strongest relationship with feather corticosterone occurred during the fledging period, suggesting that this period presents an energetic challenge for juvenile spotted owls. Greater juvenile mass decreased the effect of precipitation, suggesting that greater mass was important for juveniles to maintain homeostasis during fledgling. Feather corticosterone in juvenile spotted owls provided insights to the challenges faced during early development, adding to our understanding of spotted owl life history and potential for population recovery.

Oregon, Washington↗

Quantifying the contribution of habitats and pathways to a spatially structured population facing environmental change

The consequences of environmental disturbance and management are difficult to quantify for spatially structured populations because changes in one location carry through to other areas as a result of species movement. We develop a metric, G , for measuring the contribution of a habitat or pathway to network-wide population growth rate in the face of environmental change. This metric is different from other contribution metrics, as it quantifies effects of modifying vital rates for habitats and pathways in perturbation experiments. Perturbation treatments may range from small degradation or enhancement to complete habitat or pathway removal. We demonstrate the metric using a simple metapopulation example and a case study of eastern monarch butterflies. For the monarch case study, the magnitude of environmental change influences the ordering of node contribution. We find that habitats within which all individuals reside during one season are the most important to short-term network growth under complete removal scenarios, whereas the central breeding region contributes most to population growth over all but the strongest disturbances. The metric G provides for more efficient management interventions that proactively mitigate impacts of expected disturbances to spatially structured populations. use changes in one location carry through to other areas due to species movement. We develop a metric, G, for measuring the contribution of a habitat or pathway to network-wide population growth rate in the face of environmental change. This metric is different than other contribution metrics as it quantifies effects of modifying vital rates for habitats and pathways in perturbation experiments. Perturbation treatments may range from small degradation or enhancement to complete habitat or pathway removal. We demonstrate the metric using a simple metapopulation example and a case study of eastern monarch butterflies. For the monarch case study, the magnitude of environmental change influences ordering of node contribution. We find that habitats through which all migrants flow are the most important to short-term network growth under complete-removal scenarios. The metric G provides for more efficient management interventions that proactively mitigate impacts of expected disturbances to spatially structured populations.

American Naturalist↗

Environmental geochemistry at the global scale

Land degradation and pollution caused by population pressure and economic development pose a threat to the sustainability of the earth's surface, especially in tropical regions where a long history of chemical weathering has made the surface environment particularly fragile. Systematic baseline geochemical data provide a means of monitoring the state of the environment and identifying problem areas. Regional surveys have already been carried out in some countries, and with increased national and international funding they can be extended to cover the rest of the land surface of the globe. Preparations have been made, under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Surveys (IUGS) and the International Association of Geochemistry and Cosmochemistry (IAGC) for the establishment of just such an integrated global database. ?? 2001 NERC. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Conference Paper↗

Conservation genomics of an endangered montane amphibian reveals low population structure, low genomic diversity and selection pressure from disease

Wildlife diseases are a major global threat to biodiversity. Boreal toads ( Anaxyrus [Bufo] boreas ) are a state-endangered species in the southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico, and a species of concern in Wyoming, largely due to lethal skin infections caused by the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ). We performed conservation and landscape genomic analyses using single nucleotide polymorphisms from double-digest, restriction site-associated DNA sequencing in combination with the development of the first boreal toad (and first North American toad) reference genome to investigate population structure, genomic diversity, landscape connectivity and adaptive divergence. Genomic diversity ( π = 0.00034–0.00040) and effective population sizes ( N e = 8.9–38.4) were low, likely due to post-Pleistocene founder effects and Bd -related population crashes over the last three decades. Population structure was also low, likely due to formerly high connectivity among a higher density of geographically proximate populations. Boreal toad gene flow was facilitated by low precipitation, cold minimum temperatures, less tree canopy, low heat load and less urbanization. We found >8X more putatively adaptive loci related to Bd intensity than to all other environmental factors combined, and evidence for genes under selection related to immune response, heart development and regulation and skin function. These data suggest boreal toads in habitats with Bd have experienced stronger selection pressure from disease than from other, broad-scale environmental variations. These findings can be used by managers to conserve and recover the species through actions including reintroduction and supplementation of populations that have declined due to Bd .

Colorado↗

Environmental occurrence and shallow ground water detection of the antibiotic monensin from dairy farms

Pharmaceuticals used in animal feeding operations have been detected in various environmental settings. There is a growing concern about the impact on terrestrial and aquatic organisms and the development of antibiotic-resistant strains of microorganisms. Pharmaceutical use in milking cows is relatively limited compared with other livestock operations, except for the ionophore monensin, which is given to lactating cows as a feed. By weight, monensin can be the most significant antibiotic used in a dairy farm. This study investigates the potential of monensin to move from dairy operations into the surrounding ground water. Using two dairy farms in California as study sites, we twice collected samples along the environmental pathway-from flush lanes, lagoon waters, and shallow ground water beneath the dairies and beneath its associated manured fields. Monensin concentrations were determined using solid-phase extraction and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with positive electrospray ionization. Monensin was detected in all of the flush lane and lagoon water samples. Theoretical maximum concentration estimated from the actual dosing rate and the theoretical excretion rate assuming no attenuation was one order of magnitude greater than observed concentrations, suggesting significant attenuation in the manure collection and storage system. Monensin was also detected, at levels ranging from 0.04 to 0.39 microg L(-1), in some of the ground water samples underneath the production area of the dairy but not from the adjacent manured fields. Concentrations in ground water immediately downgradient of the lagoons were one to two orders of magnitude lower than the concentrations detected in lagoons, suggesting attenuation in the subsurface. The data suggest the possibility of monensin transport into shallow (2-5 m) alluvial ground water from dairy management units, including manure storage lagoons and freestalls occupied by heifers, lactating cows, and dry cows.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Estimating selected streamflow statistics representative of 1930–2002 in West Virginia

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 2-year; 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 5-year; and 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 10-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the 1-day, 3-year and 4-day, 3-year biologically based low-flow frequency values; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows; and the 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, and 90-percent flow-duration values. Regional equations were developed using ordinary least-squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamflow-gaging stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia - North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle - were determined. Drainage area, precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. Estimating procedures are presented for determining statistics at a gaging station, a partial-record station, and an ungaged location. Examples of some estimating procedures are presented.

West Virginia↗

Implementation of the CREED approach for environmental assessments

Environmental exposure data are a key component of chemical and ecological assessments, supporting and guiding environmental management decisions and regulations. Measures taken to protect the environment based on exposure data can have social and economic implications. Flawed information may lead to measures being taken in the wrong place or to important action not being taken. Although the advantages of harmonizing evaluation methods have been demonstrated for hazard information, no comparable approach is established for exposure data evaluation. The goal of Criteria for Reporting and Evaluating Exposure Datasets (CREED) is to improve the transparency and consistency with which exposure data are evaluated regarding usability in environmental assessments. Here, we describe the synthesis of the CREED process, and propose methods and tools to summarize and interpret the outcomes of the data usability evaluation in support of decision-making and communication. The CREED outcome includes a summary that reports any key gaps or shortcomings in the reliability (data quality) and relevance (fitness for purpose) of the data being considered. The approach has been implemented in a workbook template (provided as Supporting Information), for assessors to readily follow the workflow and create a report card for any given dataset. The report card communicates the outcome of the CREED evaluation and summarizes important dataset attributes, providing a concise reference pertaining to the dataset usability for a specified purpose and documenting data limitations that may restrict data use or increase environmental assessment uncertainty. The application of CREED is demonstrated through three case studies, which also were used during beta testing of the methodology. As experience with the CREED approach application develops, further improvements may be identified and incorporated into the framework. Such development is to be encouraged in the interest of better science and decision-making, and to make environmental monitoring and assessment more cost-effective.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

Population viability and connectivity of the Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus )

In 1992, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) granted Ursus americanus luteolus (Louisiana black bear) threatened status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973, listing loss and fragmentation of habitat as the primary threats. A study was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the University of Tennessee, the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, and the USFWS to estimate demographic rates and genetic structure of Louisiana black bear populations; evaluate relations between environmental and anthropogenic factors and demographic, genetic, and movement characteristics of Louisiana black bear populations; and develop data-driven stochastic population projection models to assess long-term persistence of individual subpopulations and the overall black bear population in Louisiana. Data were collected with non-invasive DNA sampling, live capture, winter den visits, and radio monitoring from 2002 to 2012 in the four areas supporting breeding subpopulations in Louisiana: Tensas River Basin (TRB), Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB), Lower Atchafalaya River Basin (LARB), and Three Rivers Complex (TRC). Bears were live trapped and radio collared in the TRB and TRC to estimate survival and reproductive rates, deterministic matrix models were used to estimate asymptotic growth rates, and stochastic population models were used to estimate long-term viability. DNA extracted from hair collected at baited, barbed-wire enclosures in the TRB, UARB, and LARB and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analysis based on Bayesian hierarchical modeling methods were used to estimate apparent survival ( φ ), per capita recruitment ( γ ), abundance ( N ), realized growth rate ( λ ), and long-term viability. From 2002 to 2012, we radio monitored 86 adult females greater than (>) 2 years old within the TRB, and 43 adult females were monitored in the TRC. The mean annual survival rate estimate ranged from 0.97 to 0.99 for the TRB and from 0.93 to 0.97 for the TRC. Fecundity and yearling recruitment in the TRB were 0.47 and 0.15, respectively, whereas estimates for the TRC were 0.37 and 0.18. Depending on estimated carrying capacity, the strength of the density dependence, level of uncertainty, and the treatment of unresolved signals, persistence probabilities for the TRC subpopulation ranged from 0.295 to 0.999. Estimates of N for females in the TRB ranged from 140 to 163 during 2006–12 when detection heterogeneity was assumed to follow a logistic-normal distribution (Model 1) and from 133 to 158 when a 2-point finite mixture distribution was assumed (Model 2). Annual estimates of γ ranged from 0.00 to 0.16 and from 0 to 0.22, depending on the model, and estimates of φ ranged from 0.87 to 0.93 during that period. In the UARB, estimates of N for females ranged from 25 to 44 during the study period, regardless of heterogeneity model. Estimated γ ranged from 0.00 to 0.41, and φ ranged from 0.88 to 0.90 during that period. Estimated N for females in the LARB was from 78 to 97 from 2010 to 2012 based on Model 1 and from 68 to 84 based on Model 2. Estimates of γ were 0.00 for 2010–11 regardless of heterogeneity model and ranged from 0.24 to 0.31 for 2011–12, depending on the model assumptions. We estimated φ as 0.81 for 2010–11, and from 0.84 to 0.85 for 2011–12, depending on model assumptions. We estimated Φ as 0.81 for 2010–11, ranging and from 0.84 to 0.85 for 2011–12, depending on model assumptions. On the basis of vital rate estimates from Model 1 of the CMR analysis, probability of persistence over 100 years for the TRB population was >0.999, 0.975, and 0.958 for process-only, 50-percent (%) credible interval (CI), and 95% CI projections, respectively. Similarly, the probability of persistence based on Model 2 was >0.999, 0.982, and 0.958. For the UARB, probabilities of persistence based on Model 1 were >0.999, 0.971, and 0.958 for process-only, 50% CI, and 95% CI projections, respectively, and 0.993, 0.929, and 0.849 for Model 2. Using the telemetry and reproductive data from the TRC, probabilities of persistence were greater than or equal to 0.95 only for projections based on the most optimistic set of assumptions. Assuming that the dynamics of the TRB, TRC, and UARB populations were independent and using the most pessimistic population-specific persistence probabilities (that is, 0.958, 0.295, and 0.849, respectively), the overall probability of persistence for bears in that population system was 0.996. Genetic methods were used to estimate interchange and structure between subpopulations in Louisiana and in Minnesota (MINN); Mississippi (MISS); and the White River Basin (WRB), Arkansas. Results from the all-population and the WRB–TRB clustering analyses indicate at least five genetically distinct populations. The genetic clustering and migrant analyses combined with capture data provided direct evidence that interchange has occurred from the WRB to the TRB and MISS, from the TRB to MISS, from the UARB to the TRC, and from the TRC to the TRB. Indirect evidence that interchange occurred from the UARB to the TRC and from the UARB to the TRB by way of the TRC was documented. No evidence was found of interchange from any of the subpopulations to the WRB, UARB, or LARB. From April 2010 to April 2012, global positioning system (GPS) radio collars were placed on 8 female and 23 male bears ranging from 1 to 11 years of age to develop a step-selection function model to predict routes and rates of interchange. For both males and females, the probability of a step being selected increased as the distance to natural land cover and agriculture at the end of the step decreased and as distance from roads at the end of a step increased. Of 4,000 correlated random walks, the least potential interchange was between TRB and TRC and between UARB and LARB, but the relative potential for natural interchange between UARB and TRC was high. The step-selection model predicted that dispersals between the LARB and UARB populations were infrequent but possible for males and nearly nonexistent for females. No evidence of natural female dispersal between subpopulations has been documented thus far, which is also consistent with model predictions.

Louisiana↗

Environmental auditing: Capabilities and management utility of recreation impact monitoring programs

A recreation impact monitoring system was developed and applied in 1984?1986 and in 1991 to all backcountry river-accessed campsites within Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Results suggest that actions implemented by park managers in response to problems identified by the initial survey were highly effective in reducing resource degradation caused by camping. In particular, the elimination of some designated campsites and installation of anchored firegrates reduced the total area of disturbance by 50%. Firegrate installation provided a focal point that increased the concentration of camping activities, allowing peripheral areas to recover. As suggested by predictive models, additional resource degradation caused by increased camping intensities is more than offset by improvements in the condition of areas where use is eliminated. The capabilities and management utility of recreation impact monitoring programs, illustrated by the Delaware Water Gap monitoring program, are also presented and discussed.

Environmental Management↗

Helping Students make the transition from novice learner of ground-water concepts to expert using the Plume Busters software

Environmental and earth science students are novice learners and lack the experience needed to rise to the level of expert. To address this problem we have developed the prototype Plume Busters?? software as a capstone educational experience, in which students take on the role of an environmental consultant. Following a pipeline spill, the environmental consultant is hired by the pipeline owner to locate the resulting plume created by spill and remediate the contaminated aquifer at minimum monetary and time cost. The contamination must be removed from the aquifer before it reaches the river and eventually a downstream public water supply. The software consists of an interactive Java application and accompanying HTML linked pages. The application simulates movement of a plume from a pipeline break throug h a shallow alluvial aquifer towards the river. The accompanying web pages establish the simulated contamination scenario and provide students with background material on ground-water flow and transport principles. To make the role-play more realistic, the student must consider cost and time when making decisions about siting observation wells and wells for the pump-and-treat remediation system.

Journal of Geoscience Education↗

Identifying the decision to be supported: a review of papers from environmental modelling and software

Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 in Environmental Modelling and Software that used the phrase “decision support system” or “decision support tool”, and which are characteristic of different sectors. In our review, 41% of the systems and tools related to the water resources sector, 34% were related to agriculture, and 22% to the conservation of fish, wildlife, and protected area management. Only 60% of the papers were deemed to be reporting on DSS. This was based on the papers reviewed not having directly identified a specific decision to be supported. We also report on the techniques that were used to identify the decisions, such as formal survey, focus group, expert opinion, or sole judgment of the author(s). The primary underlying modelling system, e.g., expert system, agent based model, Bayesian belief network, geographical information system (GIS), and the like was categorised next. Finally, since decision support typically should target some aspect of unstructured decisions, we subjectively determined to what degree this was the case. In only 23% of the papers reviewed, did the system appear to tackle unstructured decisions. This knowledge should be useful in helping workers in the field develop more effective systems and tools, especially by being exposed to the approaches in different, but related, disciplines. We propose that a standard blueprint for reporting on DSS be developed for consideration by journal editors to aid them in filtering papers that use the term, “decision support”.

Leipzig↗

An overview of environmental surveillance of waste management activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), in southeastern Idaho, is a principal center for nuclear energy development for the Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Nuclear Navy. Fifty-two reactors have been built at the INEL, with 15 still operable. Extensive environmental surveillance is conducted at the INEL by DOE's Radiological Environmental Sciences Laboratory (RESL), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), EG&G Idaho, Inc., and Westinghouse Idaho Nuclear Company (WINCO). Surveillance of waste management facilities radiation is integrated with the overall INEL Site surveillance program. Air, warer, soil, biota, and environmental radiation are monitored or sampled routinely at INEL. Results to date indicate very small or no impacts from INEL on the surrounding environment. Environmental surveillance activities are currently underway to address key environmental issues at the INEL.

Idaho↗

Evidence from data storage tags for the presence of lunar and semilunar behavioral cycles in spawning Atlantic cod

Understanding the environmental processes determining the timing and success of reproduction is of critical importance to developing effective management strategies of marine fishes. Unfortunately it has proven difficult to comprehensively study the reproductive behavior of broadcast-spawning fishes. The use of electronic data storage tags (DSTs) has the potential to provide insights into the behavior of fishes. These tags allow for data collection over relatively large spatial and temporal scales that can be correlated to predicted environmental conditions and ultimately be used to refine predictions of year class strength. In this paper we present data retrieved from DSTs demonstrating that events putatively identified as Atlantic cod spawning behavior is tied to a lunar cycle with a pronounced semi-lunar cycle within it. Peak activity occurs around the full and new moon with no evidence of relationship with day/night cycles.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

Development and Evaluation of a Riparian Buffer Mapping Tool

Land use and land cover within riparian areas greatly affect the conditions of adjacent water features. In particular, riparian forests provide many environmental benefits, including nutrient uptake, bank stabilization, steam shading, sediment trapping, aquatic and terrestrial habitat, and stream organic matter. In contrast, residential and commercial development and associated transportation infrastructure increase pollutant and nutrient loading and change the hydrologic characteristics of the landscape, thereby affecting both water quality and habitat. Restoring riparian areas is a popular and cost effective restoration technique to improve and protect water quality. Recognizing this, the Chesapeake Executive Council committed to restoring 10,000 miles of riparian forest buffers throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed by the year 2010. In 2006, the Chesapeake Executive Council further committed to 'using the best available...tools to identify areas where retention and expansion of forests is most needed to protect water quality'. The Chesapeake Bay watershed encompasses 64,000 square miles, including portions of six States and Washington, D.C. Therefore, the interpretation of remotely sensed imagery provides the only effective technique for comprehensively evaluating riparian forest protection and restoration opportunities throughout the watershed. Although 30-meter-resolution land use and land cover data have proved useful on a regional scale, they have not been equally successful at providing the detail required for local-scale assessment of riparian area characteristics. Use of high-resolution imagery (HRI) provides sufficient detail for local-scale assessments, although at greater cost owing to the cost of the imagery and the skill and time required to process the data. To facilitate the use of HRI for monitoring the extent of riparian forest buffers, the U.S. Forest Service and the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Geographic Science Center funded the development of a prototype semiautomated image classification tool, RBMapper, that is designed for use by technicians with limited image processing training. This document provides an overview of the RBMapper tool, includes instructions on how to obtain the RBMapper tool and tutorial datasets, and contains a summary evaluation of the tool

Open-File Report↗

Development of an adaptive harvest management program for Taiga bean geese

This report describes recent progress in specifying the elements of an adaptive harvest program for taiga bean goose. It describes harvest levels appropriate for first rebuilding the population of the Central Management Unit and then maintaining it near the goal specified in the AEWA International Single Species Action Plan (ISSAP). This report also provides estimates of the length of time it would take under ideal conditions (no density dependence and no harvest) to rebuild depleted populations in the Western and Eastern Management Units. We emphasize that our estimates are a first approximation because detailed demographic information is lacking for taiga bean geese. Using allometric relationships, we estimated parameters of a thetalogistic matrix population model. The mean intrinsic rate of growth was estimated as r = 0.150 (90% credible interval: 0.120 – 0.182). We estimated the mean form of density dependence as   2.361 (90% credible interval: 0.473 – 11.778), suggesting the strongest density dependence occurs when the population is near its carrying capacity. Based on expert opinion, carrying capacity (i.e., population size expected in the absence of hunting) for the Central Management Unit was estimated as K  87,900 (90% credible interval: 82,000 – 94,100). The ISSAP specifies a population goal for the Central Management Unit of 60,000 – 80,000 individuals in winter; thus, we specified a preliminary objective function as one which would minimize the difference between this goal and population size. Using the concept of stochastic dominance to explicitly account for uncertainty in demography, we determined that optimal harvest rates for 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons were h = 0.00, 0.02, 0.05, and 0.06, respectively. These optima represent a tradeoff between the harvest rate and the time required to achieve and maintain a population size within desired bounds. We recognize, however, that regulation of absolute harvest rather than harvest rate is more practical, but our matrix model does not permit one to calculate an exact harvest associated with a specific harvest rate. Approximate harvests for current population size in the Central Management Unit are 0, 1,200, 2,300, and 3,500 for the 5, 10, 15, and 20-year time horizons, respectively. Populations of taiga bean geese in the Western and Eastern Units would require at least 10 and 13 years, respectively, to reach their minimum goals under the most optimistic of scenarios. The presence of harvest, density dependence, or environmental variation could extend these time frames considerably. Finally, we stress that development and implementation of internationally coordinated monitoring programs will be essential to further development and implementation of an adaptive harvest management program.

Conference Paper↗

Hydrogeochemical studies of historical mining areas in the Humboldt River basin and adjacent areas, northern Nevada

The study area comprises the Humboldt River Basin and adjacent areas, with emphasis on mining areas relatively close to the Humboldt River. The basin comprises about 16,840 mi2 or 10,800,000 acres. The mineral resources of the Humboldt Basin have been investigated by many scientists over the past 100 years, but only recently has our knowledge of regional geology and mine geology been applied to the understanding and evaluation of mining effects on water and environmental quality. The investigations reported here apply some of the techniques and perspectives developed in the Abandoned Mine Lands Initiative (AMLI) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a program of integrated geological-hydrological-biological-chemical studies underway in the Upper Animas River watershed in Colorado and the Boulder River watershed in, Montana. The goal of my studies of sites and districts is to determine the character of mining-related contamination that is actively or potentially a threat to water quality and to estimate the potential for natural attenuation of that contamination. These geology-based studies and recommendations differ in matters of emphasis and data collection from the biology-based assessments that are the cornerstone of environmental regulations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗