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Does influenza A affect body condition of wild mallard ducks, or vice versa?

Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses are well documented to circulate within wild waterfowl populations (Olsen et. al. 2006 ). It has been assumed that these infections are benign with no subsequent effects on life-history parameters. The study by Latorre-Margalef et al. (2009 ; hereafter L.-M. et al. ) represents an important step, as they attempt to test this assumption in wild birds. L.-M. et al. captured migrating mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) at a staging area and tested them for the presence of avian influenza A virus (IAV). They related IAV infection status to body mass and duration of time spent on the staging area. Overall, the study is well designed with impressive sample sizes and the analyses are carefully conducted and presented. However, in discussing these results, the authors assume causation based upon correlation and, although they acknowledge the possibility of immunosuppression during migration due to reduced energy stores, they do not discuss it as a possible explanation for their findings. Below, we consider several of the major findings by L.-M. et al. , providing alternative explanations for the results. Because the L.-M. et al. study design is correlational, it is not possible to use their data to distinguish between their interpretations and our alternative explanations.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

A systematic review of laboratory investigations into the pathogenesis of avian influenza viruses in wild avifauna of North America

The lack of consolidated information regarding the response of wild bird species to infection with avian influenza virus (AIV) is a challenge to both conservation managers and researchers alike, with related sectors also impacted, such as public health and commercial poultry. Using two independent searches, we reviewed published literature for studies describing wild bird species experimentally infected with avian influenza to assess host species’ relative susceptibility to AIVs. Additionally, we summarize broad-scale parameters for elements such as shedding duration and minimum infectious dose that can be used in transmission modelling efforts. Our synthesis shows that waterfowl (i.e. Anatidae) compose the vast majority of published AIV pathobiology studies, whereas gulls and passerines are less represented in research despite evidence that they also are susceptible and contribute to highly pathogenic avian influenza disease dynamics. This study represents the first comprehensive effort to compile available literature regarding the pathobiology of AIVs in all wild birds in over a decade. This database can now serve as a tool to all researchers, providing generalized estimates of pathobiology parameters for a variety of wild avian families and an opportunity to critically examine and assess what is known and identify where further insight is needed.

Proceeding of the Royal Society B↗

Springing forward: Migrating songbirds catch up with the start of spring in North America

In temperate regions, the annual pattern of spring onset can be envisioned as a ‘green wave’ of emerging vegetation that moves across continents from low to high latitudes, signifying increasing food availability for consumers. Many herbivorous migrants ‘surf’ such resource waves, timing their movements to exploit peak vegetation resources in early spring. Although less well studied at the individual level, secondary consumers such as insectivorous songbirds can track vegetation phenology during migration as well. We hypothesized that four species of ground-foraging songbirds in eastern North America—two warblers and two thrushes—time their spring migrations to coincide with later phases of vegetation phenology, corresponding to increased arthropod prey, and predicted they would match their migration rate to the green wave but trail behind it rather than surfing its leading edge. We further hypothesized that the rate at which spring onset progresses across the continent influences bird migration rates, such that individuals adjust migration timing within North America to phenological conditions they experience en route . To test our hypotheses, we used a continent-wide automated radio telemetry network to track individual songbirds on spring migration between the U.S. Gulf Coast region and northern locations closer to their breeding grounds. We measured vegetation phenology using two metrics of spring onset, the spring index first leaf date and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), then calculated the rate and timing of spring onset relative to bird detections. All individuals arrived in the southeastern United States well after local spring onset. Counter to our expectations, we found that songbirds exhibited a ‘catching up’ pattern: Individuals migrated faster than the green wave of spring onset, effectively closing in on the start of spring as they approached breeding areas. While surfing of resource waves is a well-documented migration strategy for herbivorous waterfowl and ungulates, individual songbirds in our study migrated faster than the green wave and increasingly caught up to its leading edge en route . Consequently, songbirds experience a range of vegetation phenophases while migrating through North America, suggesting flexibility in their capacity to exploit variable resources in spring.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

Multi-species duck harvesting using dynamic programming and multi-criteria decision analysis

1.Multiple species are often exposed to a common hunting season, but harvest and population objectives may not be fully achieved if harvest potential varies among species and/or species abundances are not correlated through time. Our goal was to develop an approach for setting a common hunting season that would recognize heterogeneity in species productivity and would select annual hunting seasons conditioned on the status of individual species. 2.We first used stochastic dynamic programming to generate optimal, state‐dependent harvest strategies for 18 candidate regulatory scenarios. We simulated the performance of these strategies, and then used multi‐criteria decision making to identify preferred regulatory scenarios for duck hunting seasons in the Atlantic Flyway of the U.S. 3.Generally, estimates of annual population size were not correlated among species. Mallards had the highest estimated intrinsic rate of growth, green‐winged teal, wood ducks, and ring‐necked ducks had intermediate values, and goldeneyes were the least productive. Estimated carrying capacity was highest for mallards and lowest for green‐winged teal. 4.Managers had greatest interest in maximizing season length (33%) and aggregate duck abundance (28%), and less interest in maximizing aggregate harvest (19%) and the number of years between a change in hunting season regulations (19%). Several regulatory scenarios provided acceptable tradeoffs among these objectives. 5.Synthesis and applications. Separate hunting seasons for various species of game may be untenable, either due to the added cost and regulatory complexity, or because selective harvesting of stocks may be difficult due to problems in species identification. Rather than averaging species‐specific productivities, or basing hunting seasons on the least (or most) productive species, we describe an approach in which productivity and annual population status are considered explicitly for each species. By combining stochastic dynamic programming with multi‐criteria decision analysis, we can identify a regulatory strategy that can address a diverse set of objectives and explicitly recognize the tradeoffs among them. To meet the Atlantic Flyway's objectives as identified by waterfowl managers, our results suggest a regulatory strategy in which the harvest is targeted at 98% of aggregate maximum sustainable yield, most emphasis is placed on accumulating harvests of mallards and wood ducks, and by using a set of regulatory options that are more conservative than those currently in use.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Importance of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for aquatic birds

We used data from aerial surveys (1992–2010) of >100,000 km 2 and ground surveys (1998–2004) of >150 km 2 to estimate the density and abundance of birds on the North Slope of Alaska (U.S.A.). In the ground surveys, we used double sampling to estimate detection ratios. We used the aerial survey data to compare densities of birds and Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), the major nest predator of birds, on the North Slope, in Prudhoe Bay, and in nearby areas. We partitioned the Prudhoe Bay oil field into 2 × 2 km plots and determined the relation between density of aquatic birds and density of roads, buildings, and other infrastructure in these plots. Abundance and density (birds per square kilometer) of 3 groups of aquatic birds—waterfowl, loons, and grebes; shorebirds; and gulls, terns, and jaegers—were highest in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPRA) and lowest in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Six other major wetlands occur in the Arctic regions of Canada and Russia, but the largest population of aquatic birds was in the NPRA. Aquatic birds were concentrated in the northern part of the NPRA. For example, an area that covered 18% of the NPRA included 53% of its aquatic birds. The aerial surveys showed that bird density was not lower and fox density was not higher in Prudhoe Bay than in surrounding areas. Density of infrastructure did not significantly affect bird density for any group of species. Our results establish that the NPRA is one of the most important areas for aquatic birds in the Arctic. Our results and those of others also indicate that oil production, as practiced in Prudhoe Bay, does not necessarily lead to substantial declines in bird density or productivity in or near the developed areas.

Alaska↗

Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate

Scientists, resource managers, and decision-makers increasingly use knowledge co-production to guide the stewardship of future landscapes under climate change. This process was applied in the California Central Valley, USA to solve complex conservation problems, where managed wetlands and croplands are flooded between fall and spring to support some of the largest concentrations of shorebirds and waterfowl in the world. We co-produced scenario narratives, spatially-explicit flooded waterbird habitat models, data products, and new knowledge about climate adaptation potential. We document our co-production process, and using the co-produced models, we ask: “when and where do management actions make a difference?” and “when does climate override these actions?” The outcomes of this process provide lessons learned on how to co-create usable information and how to increase climate adaptive capacity in a highly managed landscape. We found that: 1) actions to restore wetlands and prioritize their water supply create habitat outcomes resilient to climate change impacts particularly in March, when habitat is most limited, 2) land protection combined with management can increase the ecosystem's resilience to climate change, and 3) the uptake and use of this information was influenced by the roles of different stakeholders, plus rapidly changing water policies, discrepancies in decision-making time frames, and immediate crises of extreme drought. While a broad stakeholder group contributed knowledge to scenario narratives and model development, to co-produce usable information, data products were tailored to a small set of decision contexts, leading to fewer stakeholder participants over time. A boundary organization convened stakeholders across a large landscape, and early adopters helped to build legitimacy, yet broad-scale use of climate adaptation knowledge will depend on state and local policies, engagement with decision-makers that have legislative and budgetary authority, and the capacity to fit data products to specific decision needs.

California↗

Flexible migration and habitat use strategies of an endangered waterbird during hydrological drought

Wildlife species confront threats from climate and land use change, exacerbating the influence of extreme climatic events on populations and biodiversity. Migratory waterbirds are especially vulnerable to hydrological drought via reduced availability of surface water habitats. We assessed how whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) modified habitat use and migration strategies during drought to evaluate their resilience to changing conditions and adaptive capacity. We categorized >8000 night-roost sites used by 146 cranes from 2010 to 2022 and examined relative use during non-drought, moderate drought, and extreme drought conditions. We found cultivated and uncultivated palustrine and lacustrine wetlands were generally used less during droughts than non-drought conditions. Conversely, impounded palustrine and lacustrine systems and rivers served more frequently as drought refugia (i.e., used more during drought than non-drought conditions). Night roosts occurred primarily on private lands (86% overall); public land use decreased with latitude and increased with drought severity, with greatest use (56%) occurring during severe autumn drought in the southern Great Plains. Quantifying use of identified critical habitats in the United States indicated that Cheyenne Bottoms State Waterfowl Management Area and Quivira National Wildlife Refuge were used less during drought, and the Central Platte River and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge received similar use during drought compared to non-drought conditions. Our findings provide insights into compensatory use of habitats, where impounded surface water may function in a complementary fashion with natural wetlands. Collectively, these and other types of wetlands distributed across the migration corridor provided a reliable network of habitat available across the Great Plains. A diversity of wetlands available during variable environmental conditions would be useful in supporting continued recovery of whooping cranes and likely have benefits for a wide array of migratory birds.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

Seasonal occurrence and abundance of dabbling ducks across the continental United States: Joint spatio-temporal modelling for the Genus Anas

Estimating the distribution and abundance of wildlife is an essential task in species conservation, wildlife management and habitat prioritization. Although a host of methods and tools have been proposed to accomplish this undertaking, several challenges remain in accurately forecasting occurrence and abundance for highly mobile species. Exhibiting extensive geographic ranges with seasonally varying local occupancy, migratory ducks are exemplar highly mobile species and are foci for waterfowl conservation and management globally. With the goal of informing species conservation and management, our aim was to leverage citizen science data to estimate occurrence and relative abundance for ten dabbling duck species across the continental United States.

Diversity and Distributions↗

Relating mesocarnivore relative abundance to anthropogenic land-use with a hierarchical spatial count model

There is growing need to develop models of spatial patterns in animal abundance, yet comparatively few examples of such models exist. This is especially true in situations where the abundance of one species may inhibit that of another, such as the intensively-farmed landscape of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the central United States, where waterfowl production is largely constrained by mesocarnivore nest predation. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to relate the distribution of various land-cover types to the relative abundances of four mesocarnivores in the PPR: coyote Canis latrans, raccoon Procyon lotor, red fox Vulpes vulpes, and striped skunk Mephitis mephitis. We developed models for each species at multiple spatial resolutions (41.4 km2, 10.4 km2, and 2.6 km2) to address different ecological and management-related questions. Model results for each species were similar irrespective of resolution. We found that the amount of row-crop agriculture was nearly ubiquitous in our best models, exhibiting a positive relationship with relative abundance for each species. The amount of native grassland land-cover was positively associated with coyote and raccoon relative abundance, but generally absent from models for red fox and skunk. Red fox and skunk were positively associated with each other, suggesting potential niche overlap. We found no evidence that coyote abundance limited that of other mesocarnivore species, as might be expected under a hypothesis of mesopredator release. The relationships between relative abundance and land-cover types were similar across spatial resolutions. Our results indicated that mesocarnivores in the PPR are most likely to occur in portions of the landscape with large amounts of agricultural land-cover. Further, our results indicated that track-survey data can be used in a hierarchical framework to gain inferences regarding spatial patterns in animal relative abundance.

Iowa, Minnesota↗

Intercontinental genetic structure and gene flow in Dunlin (Calidris alpina), a potential vector of avian influenza

Waterfowl (Anseriformes) and shorebirds (Charadriiformes) are the most common wild vectors of influenza A viruses. Due to their migratory behavior, some may transmit disease over long distances. Migratory connectivity studies can link breeding and nonbreeding grounds while illustrating potential interactions among populations that may spread diseases. We investigated Dunlin ( Calidris alpina ), a shorebird with a subspecies ( C. a. arcticola ) that migrates from nonbreeding areas endemic to avian influenza in eastern Asia to breeding grounds in northern Alaska. Using microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA, we illustrate genetic structure among six subspecies: C. a. arcticola , C. a. pacifica , C. a. hudsonia , C. a. sakhalina , C. a. kistchinski , and C. a. actites . We demonstrate that mitochondrial DNA can help distinguish C. a. arcticola on the Asian nonbreeding grounds with >70% accuracy depending on their relative abundance, indicating that genetics can help determine whether C. a. arcticola occurs where they may be exposed to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) during outbreaks. Our data reveal asymmetric intercontinental gene flow, with some C. a. arcticola short-stopping migration to breed with C. a. pacifica in western Alaska. Because C. a. pacifica migrates along the Pacific Coast of North America, interactions between these subspecies and other taxa provide route for transmission of HPAI into other parts of North America.

Evolutionary Applications↗

A general model for the analysis of mark-resight, mark-recapture, and band-recovery data under tag loss

Estimates of waterfowl demographic parameters often come from resighting studies where birds fit with individually identifiable neck collars are resighted at a distance. Concerns have been raised about the effects of collar loss on parameter estimates, and the reliability of extrapolating from collared individuals to the population. Models previously proposed to account for collar loss do not allow survival or harvest parameters to depend on neck collar presence or absence. Also, few models have incorporated recent advances in mark‐recapture theory that allow for multiple states or auxiliary encounters such as band recoveries. We propose a multistate model for tag loss in which the presence or absence of a collar is considered as a state variable. In this framework, demographic parameters are corrected for tag loss and questions related to collar effects on survival and recovery rates can be addressed. Encounters of individuals between closed sampling periods also can be incorporated in the analysis. We discuss data requirements for answering questions related to tag loss and sampling designs that lend themselves to this purpose. We illustrate the application of our model using a study of lesser snow geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens ).

Biometrics↗

Avian movements and wetland connectivity in landscape conservation

The current conservation crisis calls for research and management to be carried out on a long-term, multi-species basis at large spatial scales. Unfortunately, scientists, managers, and agencies often are stymied in their effort to conduct these large-scale studies because of a lack of appropriate technology, methodology, and funding. This issue is of particular concern in wetland conservation, for which the standard landscape approach may include consideration of a large tract of land but fail to incorporate the suite of wetland sites frequently used by highly mobile organisms such as waterbirds (e.g., shorebirds, wading birds, waterfowl). Typically, these species have population dynamics that require use of multiple wetlands, but this aspect of their life history has often been ignored in planning for their conservation. We outline theoretical, empirical, modeling, and planning problems associated with this issue and suggest solutions to some current obstacles. These solutions represent a tradeoff between typical in-depth single-species studies and more generic multi-species studies. They include studying within- and among-season movements of waterbirds on a spatial scale appropriate to both widely dispersing and more stationary species; multi-species censuses at multiple sites; further development and use of technology such as satellite transmitters and population-specific molecular markers; development of spatially explicit population models that consider within-season movements of waterbirds; and recognition from funding agencies that landscape-level issues cannot adequately be addressed without support for these types of studies.

Conservation Biology↗

Predicted effect of landscape position on wildlife habitat value of Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program wetlands in a tile-drained agricultural region

Justification for investment in restored or constructed wetland projects are often based on presumed net increases in ecosystem services. However, quantitative assessment of performance metrics is often difficult and restricted to a single objective. More comprehensive performance assessments could help inform decision-makers about trade-offs in services provided by alternative restoration program design attributes. The primary goal of the Iowa Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program is to establish wetlands that efficiently remove nitrates from tile-drained agricultural landscapes. A secondary objective is provision of wildlife habitat. We used existing wildlife habitat models to compare relative net change in potential wildlife habitat value for four alternative landscape positions of wetlands within the watershed. Predicted species richness and habitat value for birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles generally increased as the wetland position moved lower in the watershed. However, predicted average net increase between pre- and post-project value was dependent on taxonomic group. The increased average wetland area and changes in surrounding upland habitat composition among landscape positions were responsible for these differences. Net change in predicted densities of several grassland bird species at the four landscape positions was variable and species-dependent. Predicted waterfowl breeding activity was greater for lower drainage position wetlands. Although our models are simplistic and provide only a predictive index of potential habitat value, we believe such assessment exercises can provide a tool for coarse-level comparisons of alternative proposed project attributes and a basis for constructing informed hypotheses in auxiliary empirical field studies.

Iowa↗

Analysis of capture–recapture models with individual covariates using data augmentation

I consider the analysis of capture–recapture models with individual covariates that influence detection probability. Bayesian analysis of the joint likelihood is carried out using a flexible data augmentation scheme that facilitates analysis by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and a simple and straightforward implementation in freely available software. This approach is applied to a study of meadow voles ( Microtus pennsylvanicus ) in which auxiliary data on a continuous covariate (body mass) are recorded, and it is thought that detection probability is related to body mass. In a second example, the model is applied to an aerial waterfowl survey in which a double‐observer protocol is used. The fundamental unit of observation is the cluster of individual birds, and the size of the cluster (a discrete covariate) is used as a covariate on detection probability.

Biometrics↗

Ovarian follicle dynamics of female Greater Scaup during egg production

Studies of female waterfowl nutrient reserve use during egg production require a precise understanding of ovarian follicle dynamics to correctly interpret breeding status, and, therefore, derive proper inference. Concerns over numerical declines of North American scaup have increased the need to better understand the role of female condition in reproductive performance. We quantified ovarian follicle dynamics of female Greater Scaup ( Aythya marila ) breeding on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, using a method that accounts for within day variation in follicle size. We considered several models for describing changes in follicle growth with the best supported model estimating the duration of rapid follicle growth (RFG) to be 5.20 ± 0.52 days (±95% confidence intervals) for each developing follicle. Average diameter and dry mass of preovulatory follicles were estimated to be 9.36 mm and 0.26 g, respectively, at the onset of RFG, and these follicle characteristics were 41.47 mm and 15.57 g, respectively, at ovulation. The average diameter of postovulatory follicles immediately following ovulation was estimated to be 17.35 mm, regressing quickly over several days. In addition, we derived predictive equations using diameter and dry mass to estimate the number of days before, and after, ovulation for pre- and postovulatory follicles, as well as an equation to estimate dry mass of damaged follicles. Our results allow precise definition of RFG and nest initiation dates, clutch size, and the daily energetic and nutritional demands of egg production at the individual level. This study provides the necessary foundation for additional work on Greater Scaup reproductive energetics and physiology, and offers an approach for quantifying ovarian follicle dynamics in other species.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

Latitudinal variation in population structure of wintering Pacific Black Brant

Latitudinal variation in population structure during the winter has been reported in many migratory birds, but has been documented in few species of waterfowl. Variation in environmental and social conditions at wintering sites can potentially influence the population dynamics of differential migrants. We examined latitudinal variation in sex and age classes of wintering Pacific Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ). Brant are distributed along a wide latitudinal gradient from Alaska to Mexico during the winter. Accordingly, migration distances for brant using different wintering locations are highly variable and winter settlement patterns are likely associated with a spatially variable food resource. We used resightings of brant banded in southwestern Alaska to examine sex and age ratios of birds wintering at Boundary Bay in British Columbia, and at San Quintin Bay, Ojo de Liebre Lagoon, and San Ignacio Lagoon in Baja California from 1998 to 2000. Sex ratios were similar among wintering locations for adults and were consistent with the mating strategy of geese. The distribution of juveniles varied among wintering areas, with greater proportions of juveniles observed at northern (San Quintin Bay and Ojo de Liebre Lagoon) than at southern (San Ignacio Lagoon) locations in Baja California. We suggest that age-related variation in the winter distribution of Pacific Black Brant is mediated by variation in productivity among individuals at different wintering locations and by social interactions among wintering family groups.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

Predators of Dusky Canada Goose goslings and the effect of transmitters on gosling survival

The population of Dusky Canada Geese (Branta canadensis occidentalis) has been in long-term decline, likely due to reduced breeding productivity. To identify causes of mortality, we monitored goslings marked with radio transmitters on the western Copper River Delta, Alaska, from 1997 to 1999. Almost all gosling mortality (96%; 81 of 84) was due to predation, with mink (Mustela vison) and Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) the most important predators. Bald Eagles are also major nest predators and, thus, appear to play a key role in limiting the breeding productivity of Dusky Canada Geese. Daily survival rate for goslings to 28 d of age was lower (0.011; 95% CI 0.002-0.024) for those with transmitters than for those without, but did not differ for older goslings (29-45 d). Although finer resolution in the timing of the transmitter effect within the first 28 d was not possible, we found that, by limiting our sample to goslings that survived until after 2-3 d posthatching, support for a transmitter effect was much reduced. Younger, smaller birds are inherently more vulnerable than older birds to transmitter effects. In addition, the process of radio-marking may have delayed the departure of goslings from nests and increased their risk of mortality shortly after hatching. Although radio transmitters may often be the only practical means for determining causes of mortality for young waterfowl, we suggest caution in using transmitters because of their potential negative effects, particularly during the first few days after hatching. ?? 2008 Association of Field Ornithologists.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

Estimating carcass persistence and scavenging bias in a human‐influenced landscape in western Alaska

We examined variation in persistence rates of waterfowl carcasses placed along a series of transects in tundra habitats in western Alaska. This study was designed to assess the effects of existing tower structures and was replicated with separate trials in winter, summer and fall as both the resident avian population and the suite of potential scavengers varied seasonally. Carcass persistence rates were uniformly low, with <50% of carcasses persisting for more than a day on average. Persistence rate varied by carcass age, carcass size, among transects and was lowest in the fall and highest in the summer. We found little support for models where persistence varied in relation to the presence of tower structures. We interpret this as evidence that scavengers were not habituated to searching for carcasses near these structures. Our data demonstrate that only a small fraction of bird carcasses are likely to persist between searches, and if not appropriately accounted for, scavenging bias could significantly influence bird mortality estimates. The variation that we documented suggests that persistence rates should not be extrapolated among tower locations or across time periods as the variation in carcass persistence will result in biased estimates of total bird strike mortality.

Alaska↗